Conversation with Ian Bremmer — Ukraine’s Counteroffensive, US-China Relations, and AI’s Geopolitical Influence

26:35I don't care who you elect. So let's do a whirlwind. Let's go around the world. So give us your thoughts in terms of the situation and how it's evolved or devolved in Ukraine since the last time we spoke. Well, the counteroffensive, the Ukrainian counteroffensive, has gone at best marginally well for the Ukrainians. And Zelensky, who was just in the United States and Canada a week ago, probably had his most difficult foreign trip since the war started. You saw this reception. Yeah, well, you saw that McCarthy was not willing to grant him a joint appearance of Congress. was not willing to have the Biden administration do a full briefing for the House the way they had for the Senate.

27:33I think McCarthy was doing Zelensky a favor. Honestly, I think that if he had done either of those things, there would have been many more headlines from a skeptical right wing of the GOP party yelling and screaming that we shouldn't be spending this money anymore. I don't think he was undermining Zelensky at all. I just think he's in a very difficult position. But that that difficulty is going to grow. Zelensky was told by the White House that you cannot count on military support for a second counteroffensive next year, which means that increasingly the land that Ukraine has is kind of the land they have for the foreseeable future, like their ability to retake everything that Russia has taken.

28:25And they have every right to do so, every right to want to do so. But it doesn't look like they're going to have the capacity. So that's one very serious problem for Zelensky and for NATO. At the same time, we see that Ukraine is increasingly engaging in drone and missile strikes, you know, not just on the front lines, but into Crimea, into Sevastopol, where the Black Sea Fleet is based, into their headquarters, into Moscow, into Russia proper. You know, they're putting what will soon be over a billion dollars into their drone industry. They're going to become one of the top drone producers in the world.

29:11They will not be restrained by NATO in how and where they use those drones. And that is bringing the war increasingly to Russia itself. Now, the Ukrainians thus far are striking almost uniquely military targets. The Russians thus far are striking mostly infrastructure, civilian infrastructure and civilians indiscriminately, but no guarantees that's going to continue. And I guess what I'm saying is none of this looks particularly sustainable. I mean, you look at the last six months and the front lines in the war are where they've been. The Russians have 18 percent of Ukrainian territory. That's more or less been true for six months.

29:50But the nature of the war and the context is actually changing quite a bit. So where if you had to and recognizing nobody knows, but if you are forced to guess or speculate, what does the conflict look like in 12 or 24 months from now? What would you posit? Well, let's so you said given the fact that I don't know. So let's look at I agree with you. I don't know. But let's at least look at why I don't know. One of the biggest reasons why I don't know is because I don't know who the American president's going to be. And the United States, the United States has been providing a strong majority of all the military support, training and intelligence that the Ukrainians have.

30:35If Trump becomes president, leaving aside the fact that he has promised that he will end the war within his first 24 hours, which seems long for Trump, but nonetheless, leave that aside. The policy on Russia, Ukraine and the support for Ukraine will change almost 180 degrees overnight. that's really interesting because a lot of people i mean i've i've spoken last week i i spoke with at least six european leaders like presidents prime ministers of their countries and they were all increasingly and very seriously focused and concerned about that issue and it's what's interesting is it's making them feel if the window is closing on potential support from ukraine from the U.S.

31:23and they know that like they're not going to be able to make up the gap. Like, I mean, if the U.S. goes away, the Europeans aren't going to be able to suddenly continue to provide that military support. So their view increasingly, not the Germans, but the rest of the Europeans I've talked to pretty much, the French, the U.K., the Poles, the Nordics, the Balts, their view is that you've got to bring Ukraine fully into NATO before that happens. Now, right now, Biden and the Germans don't support that worry that it's too confrontational. It pushes the Russians too hard, though they're less worried about that, given how Russian bluster hasn't played out over the past months to concern the Ukrainians can't be trusted.

32:10I mean, lots of issues there. But That is now becoming a much more active dynamic in the intra-NATO conversations. Again, there's a big danger here, Scott. I think one of the things that we can fairly say, looking 12, 24 months out, I think if we look back, we are likely to say that where we are right now is peak NATO. It's peak transatlanticism. It's incredible coordination between the U.S., all the Europeans, and the Ukrainians. it's going to be increasingly very challenging to maintain that. How would you describe our relationship with China? Is it getting cooler? Is it thawing? I would say that it is poor.

32:55It lacks trust. It has the speed of its decline has diminished. And I mean, so like for the media companies in the U.S., that sounds like the new up. Your rate of decline has reduced, right? I guess that's positive. It is clear that Xi Jinping and Biden are now putting a lot of work into a bilateral summit that will occur only a few miles from where I am right now in San Francisco in November. By the way, historically, when you look at U.S.-China summit meetings, the most stable time in the relationship is not after the summit. It's before the summit. It's right now. It's when both sides are preparing for the summit.

33:44So they're spending all of this time making sure nothing goes wrong, talking about, you know, what they can announce, how they can engage, what are the things that will be fruitful, what they can talk about. Right. So the next two months of U.S.-China relations, I would suggest, are likely to be among the most stable that we've had. And then after the summit's over, you'll get a honeymoon effect for a few weeks. It ain't going to last very long. It'll be like the next time that Congress, you know, sort of lobs a piece of legislation, the next time someone big goes to Taiwan. on the Taiwanese elections or January 13th, certainly assuming that the vice president, the nationalist vice president wins, that's gonna be more problematic.

34:23So no, it's a poor relationship, but both leaders right now are trying to stabilize it and they're having some level of success. The biggest announcements in the last few weeks have been these new bilateral channels for engagement through the State Department, through commerce, and most recently through Treasury. Nothing that's going to knock your socks off, Scott, nothing that's going to make big headlines, but does help to normalize the high-level engagement between the governments. I was asked to mediate or help unwind business from two owners. And I looked at the business and got to understand it.

35:06And my conclusion was I sat him down and said, figure it out and make up. There's just no way to unwind this business without you both losing 90 % of everything. And so figure it out. And I feel that that is somewhat analogous to the relationship between China and the U.S., and that is the biggest tax increase or tax cut is a function of the U.S. and China not getting along or getting along. It seems to me that they have such a mutual interest in trying to figure out not great relations, but at least good relations. What do you think the real soft tissue here, the issues that separate the two from what feels like a real vested mutual interest?

35:53Well, one is that the level of mutuality has been eroding for a few reasons. One is that China, when the Americans were bringing the Chinese into the World Trade Organization and opening that market, China had just an unprecedented amount of hardworking, inexpensive labor. That labor is now more expensive than Mexico. It is highly competitive and local Chinese firms are fighting for it and they don't have rule of law. So China as the factory for the world is increasingly not a useful analogy. A lot of companies want China to be the factory for Chinese consumption, Chinese demand. China for China is what that's being called.

36:42But it's a very different model than what was driving China in globalization. This term of art that you hear everyone talk about, the Europeans, von der Leyen, Biden, and others de-risking. Well, this is a de-risking that makes the interdependence between the two countries less deep, less all-encompassing. Then you have the fact that some of the American companies that are driving the indices, your Metas, your Googles, your Microsofts have either no or virtually no access to the Chinese market. China doesn't let them in. And so, you know, the Americans say, well, we might not let TikTok and the teenagers go crazy.

37:26I don't think TikTok is a national security concern personally, at least no more than I think that having kids on Facebook or Instagram is a national security concern. They both are. But but if the Chinese aren't going to let American companies in, why why should we let Chinese social media companies in? I mean, because we want to do more damage to our own children like that doesn't seem fair. So there's that. And and there's also just this, you know, the fact that the Chinese economy right now is seriously and structurally underperforming on the back of over two years where no one traveled to China.

38:04And so a lot of companies, the US, the AmCham in China just did a survey of all of the corporates there and only 50 percent said that they might be interested in investing more in the next five years. That's the lowest response on record from the Americans. The Europeans are a little bit more optimistic, but not not radically more optimistic. China's now, they say they're growing at 4 % to 5%. In reality, it's a lot lower than that. The real estate sector is really sucking wind and could implode at any moment. Lots of unsustainable corporate debt. Demographics really challenging. And the Chinese are focusing more on China.

38:52They've made it hard for a lot of foreign companies. You see this Nomura exec that has just been detained, is kept in China. You've seen investigations into American companies, European companies suddenly getting raided. I mean, all of these things together. I still am a firm believer in everything that you said, that the U.S. and China have far more reasons to get along than not. That the only thing worse for America than China succeeding is China imploding. China imploding would be very bad for the global economy, very bad for the United States, very bad for American consumers. We don't want that.

39:30But the level of interdependence is not what it was 10 years ago. And it's trending faster in that direction. We'll be right back. Not all journalism is the same. Take The Guardian. Our coverage has something unique. Fierce independence. Nobody owns us or tells us what we can and can't say. So we're free to report the whole picture. We connect what's happening in Washington to the rest of the globe, expose corruption wherever we find it, and give fresh perspective on everything from wellness and soccer to culture, the climate and more. Read, watch and listen to The Guardian for free at theguardian.com.

40:14Avoiding your unfinished home projects because you're not sure where to start? Thumbtack knows homes, so you don't have to. Don't know the difference between matte paint finish and satin? Or what that clunking sound from your dryer is? With Thumbtack, you don't have to be a home pro. You just have to hire one. You can hire top-rated pros, see price estimates, and read reviews all on the app. Download today.

40:42Before we talk about AI, I just want to get your take on the political situation and the state of affairs in the U.S. Any thoughts on, I mean, since we last talked, it just seems we're starting to normalize the notion that Trump's going to be the nominee and that he could be president again, which just seems almost unbelievable to me. What are your thoughts? Well, it would be unbelievable if it hadn't already happened once. You know, once it already happened once, you kind of think it can happen again, right? I mean, you know, those people are - It's one thing to elect a talk show host. It's another thing to elect a talk show host who's also an insurrectionist.

41:17I mean, this really is taking it up a notch. I mean, I would argue that what was being elected was a grievance based campaign, incredibly hostile to all of the enemies of these people, incredibly hostile to the establishment, irrespective of the fact that he's part of it and has profited from it and all that stuff. But I mean, the fact is that he was driving them crazy. The mainstream media increasingly like the university professors, the doctors, the scientists, all these people. Trump is the one that's going to stick the middle finger to those people. And the fact that, you know, he's now been impeached twice, acquitted twice, 91 indictments.

41:59And by the way, if they don't vote him in, if his if his party faithful don't vote him in, he could face jail time. So look what look what he's willing to do. Look what he's willing to go through just to stick it to the man. Right. And, you know, I mean, if that's why he was voted in the first time, he's only given all those people far more reasons to vote from a second time. So very clearly, I think we all should be betting on him being the nominee. Can he can he win as president? I don't know. I mean, I don't know if it's 50 percent likely or 30 percent likely, but it ain't 10 percent. Not against Biden, where, you know, a strong majority of the entire population believes that he's too old to run.

42:42And, you know, he's not doing well on immigration now at all, which is a serious issue that affects every American. I mean, even the New York mayor was taking, you know, pot shots at the president, not exactly a red bastion, you know, on that front. And on the economy, while I'm sympathetic to the fact that the economy is doing considerably better than that of other advanced industrial economies coming out of the pandemic and the Russia war. So, I mean, you know, if you were looking at Germany, France, the UK, Japan, Canada, I mean, you bet on the United States. So you have to say the U.S. is doing something right from a policy perspective.

43:21But a lot of Americans are hurting. And I do put stock in the fact that the average American in that context is going to blame the incumbent. Not that they think that Trump has done anything right, but that they're more willing to stick a finger to whoever's in charge. And so, you know, if that persists, and one thing I can predict pretty strongly is that in 14 months, Biden will be 14 months older. So that dynamic is not getting better. And I mean, you saw the New Yorker cover coming out. Look, you know, the four age. The cognitive decline is not linear. I mean, it gets it starts it starts to decline faster and faster.

44:07Let me ask you this. Do you think that do you think there's a chance that Democrats might if there's an incident, he falls or his popularity continues to wane? Do you think there's a chance or is it too late that the Democrats prop up someone else? First of all, I think there is no plan B right now. There is no plan B. So there's no one around Biden that is saying, OK, if something happens, who are we going to go for? In part because the person that is obvious they would go for is not electable, is the vice president. And maybe that's fair. Maybe that's not fair. But it is a reality that is accepted in Biden land.

44:44So right now, there is no such conversation happening. Biden is absolutely running. But the McConnell episodes have now made this much more front and present for the American public. And, you know, people calling for McConnell to step down. McConnell's doing the Republicans a great service in continuing to govern in his incapacity because it just makes the age issue of Biden more salient. It's so funny you said that I thought that if they were really Machiavellian, they would have McConnell freeze every other week. No question. That's exactly what you do. Just keep the issue of age front and center.

45:26Yep. I mean, I don't think that's what's actually happening. happening. Yeah, no, I don't think he's faking it. It looks pretty authentic. Although, I mean, you know, let's be clear. I mean, we could probably get this to trend on X. I mean, I don't know. Are you back on, by the way? I'm almost 90 days Twitter sober. I've just decided I'm not going to paint this guy's fucking fence. No, no, I understand that. But are you, have they allowed you? Because you were like, you were thrown off. Oh, yeah. As soon as I went public with not being able to get back on, to someone's credit, I did hear that day from Twitter saying, this is how you get back on.

46:02I didn't do it. Anyways, let's talk about AI. In your article with Mustafa Suleiman for Foreign Affairs, you wrote, open quote, whether they admit it or not, AI's creators are themselves geopolitical actors and their sovereignty over AI further entrenches the emerging technopolar order, one in which technology companies wield the kind of power in their domains once reserved for nation states. Let's unpack this. How do you think AI will influence geopolitics? Well, you know, when you started talking to me about Russia, Ukraine, and China, I mean, you know, we think we're having a conversation about the future of the world.

46:40And of course, that means we're talking about governments and political leaders that are elected or that are dictators. And we kind of understand that. And that's been the framework for our entire lives. Increasingly, if we're talking about anything that affects the digital world and what the digital world touches and can affect, which includes our behavior, our spending, big pieces of the global economy and big pieces of national security, we're not talking about countries anymore. We're talking about companies and we're talking about individuals. So in other words, the future, We talked there's going to be a China century or there's Pax Americana.

47:21It's a G2. It's a multipolar world. No, we're not. A technopolar world is that part of the world, the digital order that is run by technology, companies and individuals that act as sovereigns, that Elon decides whether or not the Ukrainians have the ability to fight in certain places because he does or does not turn on or off Starlink for those soldiers, that Microsoft decides whether they are providing cyber defenses and securities for countries, not just companies and individuals that are attacked, that AI companies will decide what AI can do, who can use it, how they can use it, how they're platformed, what their political orientation will or will not be.

48:14These things are all completely different than how we think about geopolitics. And if you believe, as I do, and as my friend and co-author Mustafa Suleiman does, if you believe that AI is going to transform the way all of us behave on this planet, the fact that governments have so far almost zero say in that, almost none of the resources, almost none of the understanding, that implies that we need to start thinking of these technology companies as geopolitical actors. So I would push back in the sense that, you know, as much that we get wrong at a government level, whether it's the FBI or NATO or our security apparatus or our Defense Department, the vast majority of the people in there, they're serving as fiduciaries for the Constitution and American citizens.

49:12And I don't like the idea of normalizing that Elon Musk and Satya Nadella and Sam Altman get a seat at the table because they have invented these incredible technologies. I like the idea of passing laws that say, if your technologies end up having an impact and domain over battlefield technologies, congratulations, well done. We now get to make those decisions. And if you don't give us real-time information such that we can make those decisions, we're going to start putting people in jail. I would go the other way. Your thoughts? Well, first of all, I know not naive at all. I share your views.

49:55And certainly with the Starlink case, you've now seen that Elon is developing a new technology that he's going to give to the U.S. government and the Chinese government presumably won't have it. The Russians won't have it. And NATO will make those decisions. So on that specific issue, your concerns, my concerns are being addressed. And hopefully that will mean that the tech companies are not making those decisions of life and death. Um, when we talk specifically about AI, uh, I think that we are going, we are moving way too fast, um, for governments to be able to do that principally. But I agree with you.

50:37I don't think the technology companies, they don't have the interest. They don't have the background. They don't have the experience, nor are they accountable to make those decisions themselves. So what I'm suggesting is that they're going to have to do it together. And we see this already start happening in the United States approach. You saw that the White House invited those seven companies that are dominating the AI landscape to come in and say, OK, let's have some initial agreements on things like red teaming areas of potential malfeasance or breaking your own. models and sharing that information with the government and with each other.

51:23Let's have, you know, watermarking on AI that ensures that people know what is and what is not an image, a sound, you know, whatever, a video generated by AI. The companies all agreed to do it. We don't yet have legislation for it. And they're working with the U.S. That strikes me as the kind of hybrid model that is more likely to succeed. For me, AI is becoming more like the global financial markets where we all know we need the financial markets. We also know that any market player that potentially can start a run can have knock-on cascading effects that can bring the markets down. And therefore, we need macro prudential reform.

52:08We need to have organizations like the Bank of International Settlements. We need the Financial Stability Board that brings together all the financial players and the governments to make sure that if there's a crisis, if there's a crash, that we keep the system working. I think that's what we're going to need in AI, which means this is not a U.S. versus China Cold War. Because the Americans and the Chinese aren't going to dominate AI the way they dominate, I'd say, semiconductors, right, or the way they dominate, you know, 5G. AI is going to be systemic. It's going to be proliferated everywhere.

52:43Everyone's going to have access to it. And we're going to need it to work, to be available, but also not to destroy us. And that's something that, frankly, I mean, you and I talked about how the Americans and Chinese need each other. This is an area in actually fascinatingly where we don't know it yet. We don't recognize it yet, but within five, 10 years, U.S. and China will fundamentally need each other on this issue. Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, the world's leading political risk research and consulting firm, and GZero Media, a company dedicated to providing intelligent and engaging coverage of international affairs, author of numerous books.

53:22What's your most recent book, Ian? On Power of Crisis. The Power of Crisis. There you go. New York Times bestselling. Yeah. Go on. Well done. And most importantly, this marks his eighth appearance on the PropGPod. Most importantly. And I enjoy it every single time. It's always great to see you. Number eight. Number eight. Great to see you, Ian. Thanks so much for your time. Yeah, my pleasure.

53:54Algebra of happiness, the power of touch and affection. I got a random email from a woman who owns this iconic restaurant in London called the River Cafe. Her name is Ruthie. I don't know her last name. And she said, I want to host. I listen to your podcast. I love it. It's a it's rewarding. And Ruthie's open about this. She's a 75 year old woman. It's rewarding when someone outside of what I would consider my core demographic, young men, listens to the podcast and likes it. And so she said, I'd love to host you for lunch. So I said, sure, it sounds great. Made a date, comes along. I forget, I was jet lagged.

54:32I was just feeling shitty. And I'm like, oh, my God, I got to go all the way to the Thames River. And it's like a 40 minute drive for me. I'm like, oh, this is like the last thing I want to do and have lunch with this stranger. and hauled my ass into an Uber, got down there. And first off, this woman is just a force of nature. I mean, she just, she's built this, probably one of the most iconic restaurants in London, if not the world. And she's done it. I don't think it's through cooking. I mean, the food was fantastic. I think it's just sheer warmth. Literally everyone in the world knows her, from Bob Iger to Lorne Michaels, like every, I'm friendly with the CEO of Airbnb.

55:10And of course he was coming to stay with Ruthie. When he's in town, he stays with Ruthie. So she has that kind of magnetism, but that's not what this is about. About 30 minutes into the lunch, when we're talking, she just very naturally put her hand on top of mine for, you know, to kind of give me this sort of affirmation. And when she did that, it was a bit jarring to me. I thought, OK, it's a stranger holding my hand. And she continued to do it probably another half a dozen times throughout the lunch. And by the end of the lunch, I was thinking, this is so nice. It's so nice that another human has the capacity, the confidence, and just sort of the love for the species to touch other people.

55:57And I'm not used to that. And I'm trying to have that confidence, but I don't have that confidence. And I thought to myself, if I could give my kids anything, or I could give them a small number of things, I would want them to have the confidence and the love and to be mammals and have the confidence to be affectionate. Because it just makes your day. It makes you feel better about yourself. Makes you feel better about the species. And I thought, my God, what a gift. Like, what were the right toys or the wrong toys? Or what was it about her life, her relationships, her parents that gave her that sort of quality that some stranger who hauled his ass down to a restaurant is just so sort of moved by the fact that this woman is holding my hand?

56:48I don't know how to bring this to a close other than to say for those of you who have the confidence and the love to hold people's hand, my God, keep on keeping on. Thank you. This episode was produced by Caroline Shagrin. Jennifer Sanchez is our associate producer. And Drew Burrows is our technical director. Thank you for listening to the Prop G pod from the Vox Media Podcast Network. We will catch you on Saturday for No Mercy, No Malice, as read by George Hahn, and on Monday with our weekly market show.

57:26You must feel so fortunate to witness up close. I mean, you're literally, you're swimming in the tank with, like, the original Shamu. Like, he's a little bit tortured, but oh my God, can he perform on command, right? He's a little bit angry. If a homeless person breaks into the park, falls into the tank, I'm going to rip off his genitals and drown them. And then there's going to be a documentary about me where they'll finally stop doing to me, to other orchids, what they're doing to me. I mean, that's what's going on here. That's what's going on here. but what a thrill for you to be in the splash zone for the initial show of Shamu and I mean I'm the big I'm one of those big fucking orcas with like its dorsal fin is like it's like hanging over it's so big it's so big and manly it goes like this it goes whoa and it's too big right like an arc Adobe Acrobat Studio so brand new show me all the things PDFs can do do your work with ease and speed PDF spaces is all you need do hours of research in an instant with key insights from an AI assistant.

58:31Take a template with a click. Now your Prezo looks super slick. Close that deal. Yeah, you won. Do that. Doing that. Did that. Done. Now you can do that. Do that with Acrobat. Now you can do that. Do that with the all new Acrobat. It's time to do your best work with the all new Adobe Acrobat Studio. Does it ever feel like you're a marketing professional just speaking into the void? But with LinkedIn ads, you can know you're reaching the right decision makers, a network of 130 million of them. In fact, you can even target buyers by job title, industry company, seniority skills. And did I say job title?

59:06See how you can avoid the void and reach the right buyers with LinkedIn ads. Spend$250 on your first campaign and get a free$250 credit for the next one. Get started at linkedin.com slash campaign terms and conditions apply.