Conversation with Jessica Tarlov — The State of the U.S. Presidential Election

24:04Don't the demographics foot well to Biden right now? They definitely do if everyone is engaged. I mean, it's like the stupid truism about elections. You know, it should go this way if everybody turns out. But we know that that's the biggest threat, certainly, that the Democrats are facing. Kamala Harris gave an interview a couple weeks ago where she said, we're not really afraid of Donald Trump. We're afraid of the couch, right, that it's bad weather that day and you're just going to sit at home. I was in Iowa for the caucus. It was like a month ago, a month and a half ago. and it was the coldest day in, I don't know, 50 years, they had really low turnout.

24:40Now, it didn't matter on the Democratic side. It really only mattered for Republicans who were actually having a competition, but you saw really depressed turnout as a result of that. But overall, yes, about the demographics, but we are seeing this uptick in a little bit of conservatism, especially if you look at an issue like Israel-Hamas, which we've talked about before, where you can see minority voters leaning a bit more to the right than you would expect or that I would like. And that's something that the Democrats really need to work on catering to. And so you're advising, they say, all right, Jess, you're data-driven, smart, pragmatic.

25:22We want you to advise us on the two or three core messages of our platform. Do that for the Republican Party right now do that. You're a hired gun. I mean, even with the billion, billion bucks each party is going to raise for the presidential race, they have finite capital and they have to zero on a couple of messages. What do you think those messages are for each of the candidates? I think for the Democrats, and I hate to say this because it's such an important issue and one that really matters to me, I think we really got away, get away from talking about saving democracy. That January 6th isn't something that works for people anymore.

25:55that's kind of baked in that they think it was an insurrection, attempted coup, etc. And you have to talk about these, frankly, really boring things. My friends run a very cool polling firm called Slingshot Strategies, and they're doing all this work for Reid Hoffman. And they've found that talking about things like preserving Social Security and Medicare, you know, creating good jobs, protecting a woman's right to choose bodily autonomy, that's really what you have to be talking about. And if you are not focused on issues that matter for everyday people, like it's a privilege to sit around saying like, oh, do you do you remember this exact detail of what happened on January 6th?

26:34Or can you believe Trump said this at a rally? People, real people glaze over. Right. They're still in the phase where they know that their prices are a bit up. They're going down. They're going in the right direction. But I said the other day, you know, having a campaign slogan of we've had the best recovery in the G7. It's just not sexy. Right. No one is putting that on a bumper sticker. So the real brass tacks kind of stuff. Again, the entitlements are huge, not just for older voters, but matter to younger voters. It's interesting also how much the debt and deficit ranks as important things that people want to talk about.

27:10No one actually wants to rein them in, but people love to hear that kind of stuff. So I would like a campaign that was pretty boring. Entitlement reform, you know, or protecting entitlements or ensuring, you know, they always couch entitlement reform and let's put in a lockbox and make sure that it's around for a long time. At the same time, you know, we're spending six and a half trillion or seven trillion dollars a year when we have five trillion receipts. So people are concerned about debt and deficit, yet the two don't square up, right? Do you think that these are talking points or do you think that the nation is ready for the hard truth about do we need to raise taxes or cut entitlements?

27:53The answer is yes. I mean, all roads lead to the same place with this level of deficit spending. Do you think that the public is ready for that type of, you know, straight talk or it's more just jazz hands, talk about the debt, but also say we need to save Social Security? To me, those are just diametrically opposed. It's interesting. They're ready to talk about it when they're polled on it. So my old boss actually did a ton of work for the Simpson-Bulls Commission, which is probably the most sensible commission that we've had in decades. And people are willing to give a little if it means saving on the other side, right?

28:26They are genuinely concerned about the debt and the deficit. Understand there has to be some personal sacrifice, whether that's means testing, for instance, or just rich people saying, like, I should forego this. There's no reason that I should get a couple thousand dollars from the government when I live in Malibu and everything is great, for instance. That does not work in an election. It's like all morals go flying out the door. And voters then don't want to hear it. It's a very select group that can continue to have these very sensible conversations when they're actually picking their candidates.

29:02So you are completely correct, and it will never change in an election year. that people want to hear, like, nothing will ever be taken away from you. And, you know, if we have to print more money, it's worth it. And stimulus is the way to go. And the Biden administration has a pretty strong argument for it, actually, that the investment in the country has really benefited us. And now do Republicans. Well, the messaging that they are going to go with is definitely this border security issue, which is the number one issue now across the board and for a lot of independents. I was surprised to see how many Nikki Haley voters, so kind of moderate Republicans and independents, were into that.

29:44Same thing happened in 2018. Remember when the caravans first came around and then they miraculously disappeared the day after the election? I don't know how that's feasible, but they're going to go and they probably should for what their base wants. Talk about border security and crime and policing, and then the economy. The problem is with the economy is that they're really struggling to make the metrics work for them right now. And a lot of Republicans who are maybe being more honest about it, like even Larry Kudlow, who worked in the Trump administration, has given some of the more enthusiastic two thumbs up for what we're seeing in terms of the economy with job reports, with wage growth, fighting back inflation, etc.

30:28So I think it's a difficult road. I think for them, they need to stay away, though, from all social issues. They can't even touch them. If they're not willing to revise their platform and say things like climate change is real or maybe kids don't deserve to die while they're sitting in a classroom or maybe heartbeat bills are a little archaic or ridiculous, they're going to get pummeled. I got to ask, what do you make of the Republican rebuttal by Senator Britt?

30:58Go on. I was stunned. Well, it was like the Democrats night, we thought it couldn't get better. And then Katie Britt comes on. First of all, we see you. We hear you. And we stand with you. I was like, is this heaven? Have I gotten there? Am I about to defend my life with Albert Brooks up here? I don't understand because she's actually very competent and very smart. I've seen her give a bunch of interviews. She's charming. She's exactly what the Republican Party needs, right? Like she's 42, I think, has two kids. She's married to a strapping football player. Alabama values. Central casting. Yeah.

31:45And whoever coached her, because they must have sent someone in to do that, did her a grave disservice. And then it comes down to the basics. And they just they gave her a bunch of junk to say. I mean, the story about the poor woman who was sex trafficked through Mexico that she made it out. During the Bush administration. Right. 20 years ago, which does not make it any better, I guess, or worse. How's it Biden's fault? Yeah. Right. And now you have that woman speaking out against her. And it totally deflated the sails out of the Lakin Riley story, the tragedy out of Georgia, where the young nursing student was killed by an undocumented guy.

32:31or I should say illegal if I was Biden, though now he has backtracked on that. And, you know, everyone's talking about that. And then we're all watching SNL and thinking Scarlett Johansson is funnier than Colin Jost. And, you know, she's the savior of all of this. And I mean, I don't know if the reports are true, but apparently internally, the Republicans are really freaking out that that's what they put up there on a night where Biden also looked so strong. We'll be right back.

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34:08That means two all-beef patties, special sauce, lettuce, cheese, pickles, onions on a sesame seed bun, and medium fries, and a drink. We may need to change that jingle. Prices and participation may vary. I want to talk about you, Jess. This is going to sound very sycophant. I think you're a fantastic role model for young women. I would just like to know, like, how—give us the cliff notes on your career and what kind of the biggest influences were on how you got to where you are at such a young age. so I moved to London after college I did my junior year abroad there moved back to London and went to the London School of Economics and did a couple of master's degrees and a PhD that was focused on the impact of political scandal on politicians careers um it all started from a love of Bill Clinton um I have since revised a little bit in the Me Too era my level of adulation but i'm very in the clinton camp in terms of what they were able to accomplish and what kind of politician he was you know someone who really just excites you and that's something you know obviously he and obama have had and i think part of what joe biden's struggles are right is that he's not a generational talent in the same way but i thought oh if i could figure out a formula for what you have to put into an apology to get out of a jam like the one bill clinton was in i would have like the coolest consulting firm of all time so i was going to create this crisis matrix yeah yeah crisis anyway it didn't work out um there aren't enough examples to do it that way so i did a big quantitative study which is the beginning of my uh data background, looking at two different UK parliaments.

36:00I finished up. I went to work on a political campaign actually for Boris Johnson. He was running against Ken Livingston, who, if you know London politics, he was the mayor of London, a crazy anti-Semite. And obviously what conservative and liberal mean over there is very different than here. So I did that campaign, moved back here, and went to work in political polling, mostly on issue campaigns, like for Mike Bloomberg. And then I started going on air in about 2014, 2015. And my old boss, who was Bill Clinton's pollster in the 90s, actually pushed me to do more conservative media. Not only does it kind of sharpen your skills, he said they need good people out there representing our point of view.

36:50And so I started going on Fox and they liked me and I liked them. And I have been there formally since the 2016 election and became the co-host of The Five a little more than two years ago. You represent a new trend and that is typically when there's these group or panel media shows, what they would do is if they were conservative, they'd bring on what I would call a foil or someone who made them look good. Like, remember Hannity Combs? Whatever you think about Sean Hannity, he's smart and he's charismatic. Sean Combs was not. I remember The View had Cindy McCain, and I thought Cindy McCain just helped them make their points.

37:31And what I have found interesting, and it's a testament to Fox and a testament to The View, is I think of, and I think Alyssa Farrah is of the same generation. They said, you know what, when we bring on smart people to push back on us, it just makes the whole show better. Inu, was your touch? Well, I don't want to, you know, people who have sat in the seat prior, I have a tremendous amount of respect for. And they also, you know, built these brands that have become so iconic and that I'm benefiting from. But I think that there was definitely a trend towards having either someone more shrill or someone more moderate in the seat where there could be a lot of kind of nod and smile, I agree with what you're saying, or shying away from a fight.

38:20And I think that part of the reason that it works and that Alyssa does such a good job, and I totally agree with you about that, is there's also some intergenerational fire. And that's something that's really important about what's going on right now, that you have a lot of older people still in positions of power that are telling younger people what they should think about X, Y, or Z issue, right? And it's important to represent the ethos of a generation, to be able to speak authentically for people who are in their 30s. I just turned 40 last weekend, so I have a whole new decade to speak for.

38:59But I think that that's part of it. And then it's also the balance between, you know, what kind of environment you want to create for your audience that might like to live in a safe space versus also what rates and what expands the bubble. and that's a lot of the internet clip culture like i know for instance that the five uh the show that i co-host has the highest share of democratic viewership it's about 22 23 percent but also that majority of people who quote like me right or think that i do something cool or important are not traditional fox viewers and they're accessing me through tiktok and youtube and Instagram and to some degree Twitter or X, whatever we're supposed to call it.

39:44And that gives what we're doing right now, and I should say that Harold Ford Jr., the former congressman, also we share the seat. So we do it half the week as me, half the week as him. And I think it's great for the viewers to get to see more of like a blue dog Democrat and then also like a more kind of modern democrat um out there representing the point of view but people are just not ingesting tv in the same way even with the view you know it's 11 a.m how many people can be sitting at home watching the view mostly people who are stay at home or retired i mean the average cable news viewer is what 66 to 69.

40:29I heard Fox is 69. Oh wait I did the math on this once maybe it's 63 so every 43 year old who's watching Fox there's an 80 there's an 83 year old CNN brags because theirs is like 55 it's really it's shockingly old. Isn't that young? Oh I would still think it was kind of later 60s it could I mean it could be but also the numbers aren't that fantastic as well so without doing kind of a ratings brag. You know, people are, and I think that it loops back to the conversation we were having about politics and the independents and the moderates deciding the elections. People are not interested in the kind of circle jerk conversations that we're having.

41:10They don't want to see the fights. Remember at the beginning of the Trump era, it was all like Anna Navarro, and I forget who she was always paired with, and they were like yelling at each other. That was crossfire. Yes, but like louder and more aggressive. And I don't think that that works for people anywhere. They actually want to see a conversation. They want to know that the people that they're watching are being thoughtful about it and prepared. And I think that that's a big shift. Yeah, you definitely, you definitely, you and Alyssa both bring, I think are great role models for young people thinking about how to disagree in not only a civil way, but an effective way.

41:50Because whenever I see you respond to what I feel are just kind of ridiculous statements by your co-hosts, you don't ever make it personal. You don't ever get loud. You just respond with facts and data and a view. And they all look like they were just caught, you know, stealing something. They all just look, oh God, we've been exposed in the middle of doing something that's clearly not accurate. it. So a couple things as we wrap up here. You're the mother of one. Is that right? Mother of one until mid-April and then. And you're expecting. Yes. I knew that, but I've been told unless you see the head crowning, you never say anything about someone who's expecting.

42:32So I was setting it up for you to say that. That's good advice. If and how has being a mother and someone who is expecting changed your view? if at all on politics what's important to you and how you approach your job having kids for me was the most fundamental change in my life and it wasn't like instant I mean actually it was instant when my first child was born I immediately freaked out that I didn't have my money but it also that definitely happens yeah oh my god it's like oh shit I'm successful and I need to make a lot more money anyways um talk to me about how it's changed your view of the world at large and specifically how you think about politics in our country.

43:17Well, it makes you more forward thinking, right? Like you're, before we were expecting, you know, you think about like, what amazing vacation are we going to take next year, right? Like, I want to go on safari. I call it the, how can my weekend be more fabulous? That was my focus before I was kids. Totally. And you're like young, living in New York City, you have enough money for any brunch you want and like any great trip and suddenly your retirement means something. You're being swarmed with information about 529s. You start to think about all these things that we did, like higher education.

43:57I mean, I'm one of the more overeducated people, certainly even in my friend group. And I went to private school in New York City. And I'm thinking like, well, what if she wants to do a PhD, right? What if she wants to go to med school? What if all these things need to happen? What do I need to do? The being more successful part. But also, what does the world look like for her? And it sounds like a cliche, but it just changes. And you start to reimagine lives purely based on what will be better for these little people. Like, we could make it work from anywhere. I mean, you're, I don't know exactly where you are right this second, but you have a very international life.

44:36I don't know if you're in London or New York or you're still in Austin, Texas, you're still in Austin. Right. And you're hooked up and you're doing this and you don't have to miss a beat for your lives. But your boys have a whole ecosystem that matters to them from their friends, to their academics, to the kind of culture that you want to raise them in. I thought a lot about how do I get back to Europe? I still think that it's better to raise children there. You know, on the weekend, like, do I want to go to Paris or do I want to go to Philadelphia. I love Philly, but that's a tough one. That's a tough one.

45:11If you want a cheesesteak, I guess you have to go with the Philly option. But then you do think about, like, I'm not some climate change radical, but you do think about the quality of the earth. I think a lot about, obviously, reproductive freedom. I'm going to have two daughters. You know, what happens if they go to college in a state that's not going to let them get the care that they need? You know, girls sometimes get pregnant in college and they sometimes don't want to have that baby or something terrible happens you know and family plan anyway i don't need to give you a whole dobs recitation but everything becomes more forward-looking and everything becomes less about you i've never cared about myself less in life than when i've had a child 100 it's the way i describe it is for the first time in your life you are legitimately instinctively and naturally more concerned with something else more so than you.

46:08And I found it actually quite, it's, there's a lot of anxiety. I got to make more money. If I fail, I fail for this thing too, but it's actually quite liberating. And, um, I find, I find it relaxing. It's like by Thursday, I was like, how do I hang out with more fabulous people, have more relevance, make more money. And now it's like, well, I know what I'm doing. I'm going to soccer practice and taking them to it's somewhat liberating to think about something else just automatically. It's like your life is redefined in a pretty positive way. It's hard the first couple of years, especially if you're like me and you're selfish.

46:41There's so much you're saying that I relate to. I lived in New York with my partner and kids. And I remember when our second one came along, I'm like, well, we want to send them to Grace Church or First Presbyterian because we're narcissists and we want to be able to tell our friends at birthday parties at, oh, we're a First Presbyterian or Grace Church family. It was$58 ,000. Plus, in the interview, they ask you if you're philanthropic, which is code for how much money are you going to give us? Are you giving to me? Not to other causes. Yeah. They don't care about Planned Parenthood. They're like, how much money are you going to give us at the auction?

47:12And so I thought, okay, pre-tax, I'm going to have to make another quarter of a million dollars a year or$200 ,000 a year to have two kids in this city. And I moved to florida and i did it for a lot of reasons their grandparents are there but some of it was economic i just thought okay if i can have a remote lifestyle and i can i'm blessed with that i can my cars my house my plane travel everything can be paid for in tax savings and it and then in terms of europe the reductive analysis i've made is i think you should stick i'm really good at living other people's lives just so call me anytime you want me to tell you how to dictate your life but america is still the best place to make money europe is the best place to spend it.

47:51Although the real gift with purchase of living in London is that, you know, school shootings, trans rights, a woman's rights, these aren't even conversations in London. We're like, well, of course a woman should have rights to family planning. Of course we're not going to have a salt wet. It's not even a conversation. They're like, they look at us and they kind of cock their head. And, but also to be clear, seven of 10 companies have gone public in the UK in the last 10 years are below their offering price. The UK hasn't grown in five years. There's just money matters and there's not the same opportunities for economic security there are in the UK.

48:28So my net advice is keep killing it, bank some money in the US, move to a low-tax state, bank more money, and then move to London. Boom! See, it's all figured out, Jess. I'll just go on the Galloway plan. There you go. There you go. Ride that train. You've solved all of my problems. If you could also give birth for me. next month, that would be great as well, because that's pretty icky. You know, a few more ketamine trips I might try. So last question, and I know this is something near and dear for both of us, and I'm having trouble, I'm going to talk about Israel, I'm having trouble reconciling how to thread the needle, speaking openly and honestly about how I feel about it, while recognizing the very real concerns.

49:16Quite frankly, it's turned me off the far left. It's almost taken me from center left to center right. It's created really strange bedfellows here. But I'm curious, one, if you're willing to talk about it personally, how it's impacted you personally, but also how do you think it plays out in the election? I can't tell if this is going to help Biden or Trump. What are your thoughts? So two-part answer, I guess. I'll start with the election part of it first. So I think it's basically a nothing for Trump. I don't think he's actually touched the issue. I expected much more actually out of him. He came out of the gate pretty terribly criticizing Bibi, which I am myself am very critical of him.

50:02But to the people who would support Trump because of Israel, that was a major no-no. And he doesn't really talk about it anymore at all. In terms of for Biden, my hope is that this is not an issue that we are talking about because whatever hostages are alive, and I have very low expectations for how many of them are still alive or in kind of any sort of good working condition. Obviously, the reports from the child psychologists to the general practitioners of what they have seen on these hostages that have been freed are so harrowing that you it makes you wonder if these are lives that are going to feel worth living for these people and that's a total heartbreak but i don't envision it being what we're going to be talking about come the fall um if netanyahu can you know continues with kind of what he's doing with the settlements and making this about other things besides October 7th.

51:02He should be out by then. And you have seen this kind of sea change in the administration, not that there isn't a support for Israel, but that the humanitarian crisis in Gaza has gotten so enormous that Biden cannot afford to just stand there and say, Israel, you do whatever you need to do anymore. So I don't foresee it being a thing at this particular moment, you know, in Dearborn, Michigan? Is it a thing? For sure. Is it going to be when you see those two candidates' names on the ballot? I just don't see it. Jessica Tarlov is a co-host on The Five, Fox's weeknight news program. She also offers political analysis across FNC and Fox Business Networks, FBN, programming.

51:51Jessica is also the vice president of Research and Consumer Insight for Bustle Digital Group. She joins us from her home in Manhattan. Jess, I was asked by my superiors at Vox if you could co-host a podcast with anyone, who would it be? And I said, the woman who showed me up on Bill Maher. I started out not loving you. Jess was the other panelist on my fourth experience on Bill Maher. And to be blunt, I've always done really well on that show. And I love going on the comments and YouTube and hearing people say how wonderful I am, except when I was on with you, it was all, she's amazing, just for president.

52:30I meant what I said. I think you are such a fantastic role model for young women and young people. You work hard. You're data-driven. You are incredibly courageous. You do not back down, but you have this nice, thoughtful, caring demeanor about you. You're making a shit ton of money. You're successful. You're married to a big, handsome dude. You're having kids. I just think you're a wonderful role model for young people and an inspiration. And I just, it's so gratifying to see someone like you, this new generation of leadership, just ascend the way you are ascending. So well done and go girl. You go girl.

53:06Thank you so much. I think you're fantastic. I was so excited when we got paired on Bill Maher. I did not read the comments, but I doubt that it was all about me. certainly for everyone on my side of the fence they were like what is scott galloway like tell me yeah it was it was trust me anyways jess uh have a great rest of the week thank you i know

53:38algebra of happiness so ketamine therapy i'm gonna do uh an entire episode on i think because I want to understand the drug itself and its background and just be more thoughtful about it and try and... It's a pretty intense experience, and I want to be thoughtful about it. And right now, I'm just kind of struggling to really find the words to encapsulate the experience. But I'm going to make just a few comments. What kept coming up for me during the hour-long experience was I just got these two images, each of my boys. Actually, three images. uh the first two were these these exact crystal clear like almost better high definition images of these my favorite picture i have these two favorite pictures of each of my boys and they were just right there and i felt this sense of impossibility that it would just be impossible for them to ever know you know how much they mean to me just the depth of i don't know, commitment and affection and just raw love I have for them.

54:43But the word impossible is the wrong word in the sense that impossible makes it sound frustrating or not within your reach. And I think of it as like, in this instance, it felt like a good word. They could just never know. And then my partner, she would pop into my mind and I would feel the sense of like, like surprised like oh my gosh that's my partner like how how the fuck did i land her like what like it's like almost like shocking and i was in a bit of disbelief around that i get to hang out with have kids experience things have sex build a life with this person it was like so it was very it was very um and in that way just sort of just like through this like these massive feelings in my face and images that made me feel sort of very grateful and, I don't know, unsatisfied, if you will.

55:44I also, I just think, I think a lot about death, but for me it's, or the end I should say, and for me it's very liberating or it gives me a sense of the finite nature of life and I think it makes me more fearless, makes me a little less insecure and a little less anxious. I have very, I have strong fears about being shamed or canceled or doing something stupid and disappointing people. I'm somewhat addicted to the affirmation of others and something that's comforting for me and helps is sort of my, what's it called? Narcan or methadone that helps people get off an addiction. My methadone for my fear about strangers whose opinion matters way too much for me, of their opinion dramatically diminishing, is that the following.

56:28In a hundred years, everyone you and I know is going to be dead. And what they think about you really doesn't matter for very long. It really doesn't matter. And no one's going to remember me in a hundred years and I'm not going to remember them. So why wouldn't you just kind of live out loud and take risks and also forgive yourself when you do something stupid? Because it really doesn't matter at the end of the day in terms of the, you know, the really the big picture of the universe. The universe is indifferent to what people think of you or what, what you think of yourself based on what other people think of you.

56:57There's somewhat of a release, but the only kind of visions I had as it relates to death, which I'm not obsessed with, but I find very interesting and very empowering for me, is that I have permission to go. And I'm not planning to go. I want to live another 40 or 50 years. I don't want to live much longer than that. But I felt sort of permission to go because my ticket has been punched, if you will, And that I have, not that I have people who love me, but I have these things, these humans that I have achieved, you know, the ends, right? There's a means and there's an ends, but I have the ends now.

57:40And that is I have these entities, these organisms, these things, these people who I just feel this sense of such deep commitment, such deep obligation, such incredible regard that takes me out of myself. like my ticket has been punched when it is the end i'll know i'll know that i was here and i had purpose i think all of us have purpose and that's to plant the seeds of trees of which the shade we will never sit under i just know my kids are gonna for whatever problems and issues they face they're gonna have an easier time dealing with them and they're gonna provide comfort as they get older even after i'm gone they will begin to sense that type of that type of regard and love I felt for them.

58:28My ticket has been punched. This episode was produced by Caroline Shagrin, Jennifer Sanchez is our associate producer, and Drew Burrows is our technical director. Thank you for listening to the Prop G Pod from the Vox Media Podcast Network. We will catch you on Saturday for No Mercy, No Malice, as read by George Hahn, and on Monday with our weekly market show.