Conversation with Morgan Housel — Behaviors that Influence our Money Decisions and Habits

23:36It was very easy during that moment to say, 2008, the financial crisis is bad. This sucks. This is miserable. But this is a one-off event. This doesn't happen all the time. It was easy to tell yourself that. And then after 2020, after COVID made things at least temporarily even worse than they were in 2008, the economy shut down. 25 million Americans lose their jobs. Stock market falls 40 percent. That, I think, left people with this idea that, like, no, maybe this is just how the world works. Every couple of years, the world breaks. And I think because of that, you always have like there's always been this pessimism porn that exists online of it's so popular to forecast doom and gloom.

24:16And if you are an optimist, you look like you're a detached, aloof moron. And I think that's more it's easier to do that today than it's ever been just because we've had all these surprises. One of the things I've learned as an investor, I think, is to unlearn what I think I've learned. And what do I mean by that? I find that every time I listen to my emotions, not every time, half the time, the right, half the time, the wrong. My emotions don't know any more than a coin flip. So when Donald Trump was elected president, I thought, oh, we're fucked and I sold everything. And the market skyrocketed.

24:53When COVID broke out, I sold a lot. I'm like, oh, my God, it's a national, it's a global pandemic. And stocks did go down. I'm a genius. And then they ripped up and had some of their best. I have a temptation now, Morgan, to sell everything. I mean, we're due. We're due for a huge correction. And I'm just not going to do it. I'm going to stay diversified and try and ignore the catastrophizing and my own emotions and my own pessimism. What are your thoughts about, I'll start there, ignoring your emotions when it comes to investing? Your thoughts? I think any way that you can mechanize your investing strategy is the right way to do it, just to make it mechanical and to just say, this is the strategy and I'm going to do it come hell or high water.

25:36My friend Nick Majuli has a great book. The book is titled Just Keep Buying. it's kind of promoting dollar cost averaging. Because when you dollar cost average, when you just say, I'm gonna invest$1 ,000 on the first of every month forever, no matter what the economy is doing, I'm gonna do it. You're taking the emotion out of the equation. You're not saying I'm gonna do it when I think GDP growth is gonna be above X percent, whatever it is. It's just taking it out to the extent that you can actually pull that off, which is another thing. It's harder to dollar cost average than it is to say you're gonna do it, to actually do it in time.

26:08there's almost no investing strategy, even with hindsight bias that you can create, that's gonna do better than that. I've seen these studies where people put together these back tests that you would think would be so logical to say, look, let's back test with hindsight bias and say, we're only gonna invest when the PE ratio is below this amount, when the economy is at the bottom of a recession with hindsight bias. And even still in those studies, it doesn't be dollar cost averaging. There's a study that I think is titled, Even God Cannot Outperform Dollar Cost Averaging. And so that's, and the crazy thing about it is that it's the easiest thing to do.

26:47It takes no effort. It takes no analysis. You don't need to watch CNBC. You don't need to do anything. You just set it and forget it. So not only is it the easiest, it's the best over time. So it's not to say it's perfect. It's not to say it's infallible. But especially when you adjust it for effort, there's almost nothing else that will beat it. Yeah. I mean, it's really interesting. One of the things, another lesson I'd like to think is that, and it's kind of disappointing, is after being exposed to some of the quote unquote brightest minds in the history of investing, my takeaway is that nobody knows.

27:23And that we all like to think that we're tapped into some proprietary resource or knowledge or that we have a better gut or we listen to someone with a better gut. And what I found is at the end of the day, nobody knows. You said something that really struck me, and that was invest in preparedness, not in prediction. What did you mean by that? That's a quote from Nassim Taleb. And I love it that I use in the book. Rather than saying, I'm going to predict the next recession and it's going to occur in Q4 2024, making that up. A much better way to think about risk is just to say that my asset allocation, the cash and bonds that I have, the flexibility and room for error that I have in my finances would be able to endure a recession whenever it happens.

28:13One of the ways to think about it is how does California think about earthquakes? Well, you can't predict earthquakes. You can't say it's going to occur next quarter. It's going to occur at this point next year. There's no earthquake CNBC with people like pundits predicting when it's going to happen. But you know it's going to happen. So when you are building your homes, when the EM firefighter, EMS crews are training, they're always prepared for it to occur at any given moment because you intuitively know that you can't predict when it's gonna happen. I think thinking about recessions and bear markets in the same way is the best that we can do.

28:43So like there's a difference between a forecast and an expectation. A forecast is saying there's gonna be a bear market in February. That's a forecast. An expectation is historically, the market has declined 20 % three times per decade. And I expect that to be the case going forward. And psychologically and financially, I'm prepared for that to occur at any given moment. Because as we've seen with like all of the other 20 % declines, they occur when you don't expect them to happen. And as you pointed out, the 20 to 50 to 100 % surges occur when you don't expect them to happen. So quit the BS of like assuming that you know when this is going to happen.

29:20And let's just set yourself up, like put yourself in the game so that whatever happens, you're going to benefit from it as long as you can endure and stick around for long enough. Yeah, sort of the basis of scenario planning is not trying to predict the future, but predict a series or a course of action that performs best across a number of scenarios. Isn't that kind of what you're saying? Yeah, I mean, so much of this is like realizing what bet you're making. Like, what is the bet that you're making when you invest? And I think a lot of people, even professional investors, can't really answer that question.

29:50If you stuck it to them, they wouldn't really have a formalized answer. This is the bet that I'm making because they're following an intuitive hunch. like a knee-jerk reaction of, oh, well, GDP is falling, so I think the market's going to fall too. Really, that's the bet you're making when you verbalize it like that? It sounds pretty silly, doesn't it? I think the bet that I'm making as a long-term dollar cost average into index fund kind of investor is similar to what you said. I'm making a bet that over the next 50 years, the economy will become more productive, that the economy will grow. We're going to have more people who are better at solving problems 50 years from now than we do today, and that that benefit is going to accrue to myself as a shareholder.

30:26That's the bet that I'm making. And one of the other things that happens when you verbalize the bet that you're making is you realize all the other people who are making different bets are playing a different game than you. And therefore the information that they're looking at and the punditry that they are speaking about on TV, it doesn't apply to you. It's not to say that it's wrong, but it's a different game than you're playing. So once you really like crystallize what you're doing and the bet that you're making, it can do one of two things. You instantly realize once you say it out loud that you really it's a silly bet that you really have no idea what you're doing.

30:59And two, it really hones your focus on the kind of information to pay attention to and the people who you should pay attention to as well. Your book, I mean, it's interesting, Maureen. I think of you more as like a life coach and a financial advisor, because whenever I read your stuff, I think you're using finance and investments as a lens to look at how to lead a more rewarding life. Your book is described as a master class on living one's best life. How can understanding, you know, the constants in your life lead to a more successful and fulfilling life beyond just financial comforts? Well, I feel like all investing is, is the study of how people behave with money.

31:37So let's start there and recognize that it's a behavioral topic. Well, everything else in life is behavioral. Relationships are behavior. Your friendships, your career is behavior. Politics is behavior. Everything falls under the behavior umbrella. So there actually is a lot that we can learn from other fields that teach us about investing and vice versa. The first chapter of Psychology of Money is called The Greatest Show on Earth because I thought that finance is one of the starkest windows into how people behave in life. Because it's like the stakes are so high, the emotions are so raw, there's so much quick feedback in the stock market that you can learn so much about behavior in investing that you can therefore apply to other fields.

32:18So for one, it's just a giant window into how people behave that you can apply to other things. The other is like, well, what is money? Money is a tool that you can use to give yourself a better life. And the reality though, is that a lot of people use it as a tool to foster some sort of addiction, to climb the social ladder, to give other people a scorecard for which to measure themselves by. Like there's a lot of different things that you can do with money, some of which are great. Others can be disastrous. So I think all of these fall under some sort of generalized life advice, because what else are we trying to get rich for if it's not to lead a better life?

32:56But you just said something that I think is really interesting, and that is your approach to money probably somewhat indicates your approach to other relationships. I mean, as someone who's taking outsized risk financially, do you find that that carries over that they take outsized risks or or poor, you know, they're too risk aggressive with their relationships or their approach to their own health? Or do you think that sometimes people bifurcate their behaviors when it comes to the relationship with money versus their relationships with other parts of their life? I think what maps here and what's definitely true is that what everybody wants out of life is respect and admiration, particularly from the small subset of people who they want to love them, their friends, their close friends and their family.

33:41And there's many ways that you can gain respect and admiration. You can do it through your wisdom and your love and your humor and your friendship and your ability to listen and your empathy. Or one other way to do it is by showing off your car and showing off your house and showing off how wealthy and successful you are. By and large, if you can gain your respect and admiration through the former and the small subset of people who you want to love you love you because you are smart and wise and funny and empathetic and et cetera, then most people will seek it there. If you cannot get your respect and admiration from there, then it's very easy to default to saying, I wanna be rich and have a Ferrari and have a huge house so people will look at me and say, that guy's great, that guy's cool.

34:21I think that tends to be, not for everybody, but that tends to be what happens here. So I think there are a lot of people who have a very strong desire to become rich so that they can have a lot of big, fancy, flashy toys because deep down they think that that is their ticket to get respect and admiration from other people. But I think it's just a much more lasting and enduring way to seek your respect and admiration from the people who you want to love you through things that by and large have nothing to do with money. It's interesting. I think I'm, just so you know, Morgan, these podcasts are just an excuse for me to talk about me.

34:57But I think I'm addicted to money. And I also think that I have this need to sometimes demonstrate my success financially for affirmation from strangers. And I think a lot of it is so deep-rooted as an instinct when you want other men to respect you, you want women to be attracted to you. These things are really deep-rooted. And in addition, when you're in America, as a man, I believe you're largely evaluated. You're worth the amount of respect you deserve, the amount of love you deserve is largely correlated in a capitalist society, specifically in America, with how much money you make as a man.

35:43I mean, I just think it's so hardwired into us. One, and I think some of that is probably good, but it's trying to figure out when and where you should modulate it. What are your thoughts? I think we can respect both ends of the spectrum here and say, look, it is this deep seated caveman emotion that we have. And let's not pretend that we can just turn that, like flip a switch and turn that off. You can't. Because you have it, I have it. Everyone, I think virtually everyone has that deep-seated desire to show off how successful they are. And it's a very natural thing. But I think if you acknowledge that and recognize the game and how it's being played, then you can also, you can still chase that and still realize that actually what you want is respect and admiration.

36:26And what you're going to gain it from is not by showing off your card, even if you're still doing that, What you're actually going to gain it from are things like, do you have a loving and caring spouse? Do your kids respect and admire you? Are your kids well balanced and happy themselves? That's what's actually going to make you happy. The place I would maybe push back a little bit is that I think it is hard to maintain healthy relationships if you don't attain, as a man, a certain level of financial security, which is getting harder and harder in this economy. That distinct of what we would like to believe, that when a woman starts, a woman in the relationship, in a heteronormative relationship, and I'm not saying this applies to every relationship, but that when the woman starts making more money than the man, the data shows, unfortunately, the likelihood of divorce goes way up.

37:16and that regardless of how many subscriptions to the Atlantic or the New York Times or how evolved we'd like to think we are, that men are still, their attractiveness to their spouse is unfortunately and disproportionately predicated on their ability to be a good provider. And that while I get that we should focus on the love in the relationships, without a certain level of financial security as provided by you, the man, and I realize this sounds sexist, but I think there's data to show this, it's going to be difficult to maintain those relationships. What are your thoughts? I think you're right.

37:52I don't know if I have much pushback. I would distinguish between financial security for your family and being rich. Those are very two, however you want to define rich. I have a good friend of mine who makes maybe 50 grand per year. And he has two kids. He's married, a great relationship. But he's self-conscious about the money that he makes because some of his friends make considerably more. And I told him one time, I said, look, you are a great dad. You're a great husband. You work hard. You provide three solid meals for your kids. You're going to help your kids out with college someday. By that alone, you have already achieved 90 % of the respect that I'm capable of giving you.

38:31And maybe if you are a very successful entrepreneur and you did this creative thing, that respect would go from 90 % to 95 % or something like that. But I think that's really true. And you can flip that around and say, someone who's providing enormous financial security, who is very rich and wealthy, but they're not there for their kids. They're on their fifth divorce, whatever it might be. I wrote about this last week. Among the 10 richest men in the world, there are a cumulative 13 divorces. And so that's, you know, I think for most people, if you said, would you rather make $100 ,000 a year, which for in most places you can provide financial stability for your family.

39:05And in that situation, let's assume you have a spouse who loves you, well-balanced kids who admire you, good health, good friends, eight hours of sleep, or you can make a million dollars a year and have none of those things. It's obvious which 95 % of people should pick in that scenario, but we still have the caveman instinct to push for as much as we can. I know wealthy people. I know you do too. And on average, they are not any happier than people who are just doing okay. They're happier than people who are poor, but are they happier than people who are, are people who make$10 million a year happier than people who make$100 ,000 a year?

39:43On average, absolutely not. And I think if anything, it leans the other way. The people who are crazy financially successful got that success because they work 100 hours a week. And because of that, they don't have good relationships with their spouse or their kids. They're not well adjusted. They sleep four hours a night, et cetera, et cetera. But I want to think that that's kind of my North Star. It's like, I want to be very financially successful. I want to be more financially successful than I am now. But none of that is going to mean a damn unless I'm spending adequate time with my kids and my wife and my health and my own sleep and my own sanity.

40:17I'd like to think you're right. But my gut is saying the reality is in today's economy, happiness is becoming more correlated with wealth and how much money you have. You talk about the relationship between happiness and expectations. I like that part of your writing. Talk more about that. Well, it's just this idea. And this very is a great segue to what you just said. I don't disagree at all with what you just said. And I think to summarize my point here, I can easily imagine a world in which my grandkids earn adjusted for inflation double what we earn today. And they're no happier for it. And the medical technology that they have is exponentially better than you and I have today.

40:56And they're no happier for it. And all of these things. And I think that has been the common path of history. That's one of the chapters of Same as Ever is about expectations and reality. where there's no such thing as an objective measure of wealth. The average middle class, median American today lives a life that is way better, materialistically way better than the average rich person did in the 1950s. I would say John D. Rockefeller never had penicillin, Advil, sunscreen, go on down the list. Most of John D. Rockefeller's life, sunglasses had not even been invented yet. And so the average American has access to these things that the wealthiest people could not even fathom.

41:34But you cannot say that the average American should be happier or feel like they're living better than Rockefeller because everybody just looks at their neighbors and their coworkers and measures themselves relative to them. It's always a relative value. And social media just like dumps gasoline on this fire because it used to be. And when I say used to be, I mean like five or 10 years ago that you compared yourself to your neighbors and your coworkers. Now you're comparing yourself to an algorithmically curated list of people. Yeah, someone phrases, I forget who I need to give credit to here, but it's so brilliant.

42:08They said, we went from keeping up with the Joneses to keeping up with the Kardashians. That's exactly what it was. We've always been keeping up with the Joneses, but now it's this fake highlight reel. And everybody knows, every single person knows the person whose Instagram feed, the close friend whose Instagram feed looks like butterflies and rainbows. Here's how happy my family is. But if you actually know that person, you know their life is a disaster and they're depressed, they're on the verge of divorce, et cetera. And so even like the highlight reel that you're seeing is so fake. And that I don't think we understand the consequences of what that's going to be.

42:42I can already see it in my own kids. My son is eight and watches a fair amount of YouTube, watches Mr. Beast, which I think is like wholesome stuff. But because of that, when I was growing up in the 90s, my definition of a rich person was the people who bought new pickup trucks. And a normal person was a person who drove a used pickup truck. and now my son's definition of a rich person is a private island and a golf stream and seven Lamborghinis and Mr. Beast who gives his friends a million dollars because it's funny. That's his definition of like, I wouldn't even say successful. That's his definition of like status quo.

43:15It's so hyperinflated from what even his parents had. So what is that going to do when the generation who's eight years old right now and is growing up with YouTube, growing up with Mr. Beast becomes 30 years old and they need to buy their first house and have their first career and they start having kids of their own. I don't think we know what it is, but you can piece together that it's probably not going to be pretty. It's not a situation that's going to lead to a lot of happiness around society. We'll be right back.

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45:04Have you thought about the way that the way you're raised impacts your relationship with money as you get older? There's a quote that I love from Josh Wolfe where he says, chips on shoulders put chips in pockets. Of like, if you grew up poor, you're going to be more driven. Statistically, though, the opposite is true. There's this like jaw-dropping research from this economist named Bakshar Mazunder, who says, who has shown that income among brothers is more correlated than height or weight among brothers. So literally, if your brother is rich and tall, you are more likely to also be rich than you are tall.

45:37That's what his research has shown. Like so much of like the only way that you can predict with any sort of accuracy, anybody's income, the most, like what it correlates the most is your father's income. And so once you look at those statistics of just economic mobility, it's lower today than it's been in a very long time. It used to be substantially higher, like your ability to be born poor and then become rich. By and large, though, statistically, you're probably not gonna venture that far. Of course, there are many exceptions, but on average, that tends to be how it is. I saw this chart yesterday that showed the percentage of people who get a very high SAT score based off of the decile of their parents' income.

46:20And it's exactly what you would think. If your parents are poor, the odds you're gonna have a good SAT score are very low. If your parents are billionaires, there's like a 30 % chance you're gonna be in the top 5 % of SAT scores because you can afford the best tutors and whatnot. So that just like getting locked into your socioeconomic group is huge. And to deny that and ignore that, I think is a problem. To say that anybody can make it to the top is just statistically not true. It's just so much harder to do than if you grew up. I honestly think the sweet spot is growing up in a middle-class family.

46:54Like you have enough money to give you some opportunities. You're going to go to a decent public school. Like maybe you can afford a cheap SAT tutor, but it's not so much money that it's going to ruin your driving ambition. And Buffett has this quote. I don't know if he's actually pulled this off with his kids. He says, give your kids enough money so that they can do anything, but not so much money that they can do nothing. And I think that's the sweet spot. I'd say a lot that if I had what my kids have, I wouldn't have what I have. And so that sets up my question to you. You have kids. And there's so many blessings that come with having some professional and financial traction.

47:33On the whole, you take it all day long. But one of the issues you face as a parent, if you have some financial success, is how do I instill the characteristics that not only made me financially secure, but the money is great. But what is really rewarding is that I earned it and I have it and I accomplished it and I built it with someone, a partner that loves me and I love, and we built something together. Have you thought about how you're going to instill that level of grit such that your kids have that grid. I mean, we all think we're going to, you know, I'm going to cut my kids off. All my friends say that.

48:15None of them do it. None of them do it. None of them do it. None of them do it. I think a lot about this. My daughter is four. And in theory, my wife and I want to raise kids who are not spoiled. Of course, of course, that's what we want to do. But my four-year-old daughter, I think she already knows if she flutters her eyes and pouts her lips, I'll buy her 100%. And so if it's like that at four, what is it going to be like when she's 16? In theory, I don't know if I can actually pull this off. My kids are four and eight, but I would like to think that I could be a safety net, but not a fuel in terms of, look, because of the money that your parents have made, we're never going to let you fall flat on your face.

48:48You're obviously never going to be homeless. You'll always have a backstop and not a hammock. You'll always have a backstop and not a hammock where you're going to get the best education money can buy. But under no circumstances are we just going to give you an allowance when you're an adult. Absolutely not. Not in a million years. And I hope we'll be able to pull that off. And I hope it therefore benefits them that they have this. And I think that because I think my parents actually did that for myself and my siblings. We always knew that if we got into trouble when we were 22, they'd be there for us.

49:17And from the time I was 16, it was like, if you want to do anything other than eat a basic diet, you need to go work. And I worked full time all throughout college because I had to. But I always knew that they were there for me if anything happened. And that was a big thing. That was huge. Because I think if I did not have that, I would not have taken some of the risks that I did in my career. If that wasn't there, I might have said, I need the stable corporate job. I can't go out and take a risk and try to become a writer. So I think having that there was great. And that's what I aspire to pass on to my kids.

49:48Morgan Housel is a partner of the Collaborative Fund, a network of fund managers investing across asset classes. His book, The Psychology of Money, has sold over 2 million copies and has been translated into 52 languages. His latest book, Same as Ever, A Guide to What Never Changes, is out now. He joins us from his home in Seattle. Morgan, I think your books should be required reading in high school because in a capitalist society where money has an unfortunate, unfair correlation to your well-being, you should be a component of health class in high school. I think You have such a pragmatic, healthy approach, an emotionally balanced approach to financial security and ultimately well-being.

50:32I think you're doing great work, my brother. Keep it up. Thanks, Scott. I so appreciate it. As someone who has admired you from afar for many, many years, that means a lot coming from you. Thank you.

50:50algebra of happiness i went in for one of these total body scans where for just a modest seven thousand dollars i sit in a tube a claustrophobic tube which i don't mind because i got to listen to tom petty and for 45 minutes hear all these strange sounds i guess it's magnetic resonance imaging no radiation and then i did the same thing for my heart and then they took blood urine, fecal matter, and then a radiologist and a doctor take me through absolutely everything. And the bottom line is they said, you know, I was in very, very good health. I asked them on a scale of one to 10, and I'm boasting now, where am I?

51:21And they said a nine and a half because they've never given a 10. Some of it's genetics. I'm blessed that way. But people, generally speaking, genetics, people inflate the role genetics plays in their health. They say that, or they like to believe that because then they can sort of absolve themselves of any responsibility. Well, Uncle Joe smoked till he was 95, and it gives them an excuse to treat their body like shit. Number two is lifestyle. Simply put, don't smoke, don't be obese, and then I'm going to come back to what you should do. And then how social you are, how engaged you are in people's lives tends to be or is proven to be the number one predictor of how long you live.

51:56You'd rather smoke and have friends than not smoke and have no friends. Anyway, so I'm going to talk about here is that the three legs of the stool, according to doctors Atia, Peter Atia, and Andrew Huberman, who I'm obsessed with, are one, sleep. That's kind of table stakes. Hard to be healthy if you don't get good sleep. Two, nutrition. And three, exercise. My sleep is good. It's gotten less good as I've gotten older because I have to pee all the time and I just have a more difficult time sleeping. But I find that's just getting older, but my sleep is pretty good. I prioritize it. My nutrition is where I fall down.

52:26I eat out a lot, a lot of salty, sugary, fatty food, and I drink way too much alcohol. And that's what's always worried me that I'm going to find that my liver is registering cirrhosis or that, you know, alcohol is just shitty for you and can pop up in a bunch of ways. But I believe the reason why I have been able to overcome just okay sleep and nutrition that is just okay. And according to my doctors, be exceptionally healthy is I have worked out four times a week for the last 40 years. And every study I have read, The cadence of research over the last 40 years is all one way, and that is there is only one youth serum.

53:02There's only one real kind of fountain of youth, and that is exercise. And if you're listening to this podcast and you're in your 20s and 30s and you haven't figured out a way to work out three or four times a week, just keep in mind, it's not about living to 80 versus 90. Oh, I'd rather live to 80 and not have to put up with this bullshit called exercise. it's about the last 20 years of your life are gonna be much different if you just put in a small amount of effort and work out. Whether it's an app, whether it's joining a gym where you can go stare at other hot people, whether it's a trainer that shows up and yells at you, whatever you need, whatever it takes, the best investment, the best investment in terms of ROI you can make your whole life in terms of the ability to get just okay sleep, just okay nutrition and still be really healthy and still be able to do all the things you wanna do, you know, hang out with your kids, run with your kids, drink, feel okay the next day, not great, just okay, and still be in relatively good shape, they're finding it kind of all comes back to one place, and that is a decent amount of sleep, decent nutrition, but outstanding exercise.

54:04Push yourself, push yourself. You should be able to walk into any room and know if shit got real, that you could kill and eat everybody or outrun them. One of those two things. Get on it. This episode was produced by Caroline Shagrin Jennifer Sanchez is our associate producer And Drew Burrows is our technical director Thank you for listening to the Prop G Pod From the Vox Media Podcast Network We will catch you on Saturday For No Mercy No Malice As read by George Hahn And on Monday with our weekly market show

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