Office Hours: Thoughts on the 2024 Presidential Election, Career Disappointments, and Scott's Private Investment Strategy

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1:03Welcome to the Prop G Pod's Office Hours. This is the part of the show where we answer your questions about business, big tech, entrepreneurship, and whatever else is on your mind. If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehours at propgmedia.com. Again, that's officehours at propgmedia.com. And just a quick note, I'm on the road and having technical difficulties, which is why I might sound a little different today. Let's just call it Daddy. Daddy went deep in the paint last night and had a few makers in ginger, and that's why I sound like shit. No, it's not technical difficulties.

1:33It is that I have gotten more out of alcohol than it's gotten out of me. Boom! First question. Hello, Prof. G and fellow Gunnar. This is Ben from Encinitas, California. My question for you is around the 2024 presidential election. That news cycle is in full swing. So I'm curious who you got And if you don't know yet I'd be curious to hear what your overall philosophy is on voting What character traits do you look for in a candidate? And or what are the topics that are most important to you this cycle? Thanks, Prof G First off, I am a gooner I finally come out of the closet, so to speak, as an Arsenal fan And one, the Emirates Stadium is closest to me and I'm definitely a person or a man of convenience too.

2:27I love Bukaya Saka. Anyways, yes, I am a gooner, so to speak. In terms of voting in the election, I think I've been pretty transparent about this. I will canvas, probably give some money and vote for the Democratic nominee, assuming it's most likely going to be Joe Biden. I think President Biden has done a great job on any data-driven metric you could look at, whether it's pulling us back from COVID, whether it's the economy, whether it's jobs added, whether it's Infrastructure Act, he's legislatively been a successful president. I think he's handling the conflict. I don't even call it conflict.

3:05I think he is handling the terrorist activity of Hamas really well. I think he looks like a guy who knows what he's doing and he's providing comfort and he's being decisive and unequivocal. I think sending the SS, Ford, Carrier Strike Group to the Gulf is kind of doing the best at keeping a reasonable amount of peace right now. I'm glad he's in charge. I think he's a good man. My fear, and I've said this and I'll be quite transparent, I think it is ridiculous that we are going to have a president who's going to be 86 if he's reelected leaving the last time he leaves the West Lawn. I think that is just insane that we are choosing between an obese 77-year-old or 78-year-old and an 82-year-old.

3:48Our electorate or elected officials are just way too fucking old. And if that sounds ageist, I am ageist. You know who else is ageist? Biology. It is ridiculous that we are counting on people this old to endure. This sort of physically and mentally taxing a job was so much on the line. We need either term limits or rank choice voting or to de-gerrymander districts such that being an incumbent isn't the premier criteria for who gets elected. Having said that, I will vote for Joe Biden, assuming he is the candidate. What people don't realize about the election that I think is really interesting is that the media wants to keep you glued to their content so they pretend that these national polls mean anything.

4:26No, they don't. The election has already happened. It's already taken place in 44 of the 50 states. It's Nevada, maybe Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, maybe North Carolina, Pennsylvania, maybe Georgia. Nothing else matters. They've already voted in California. They've already voted in South Dakota. We know what those states are going to – the candidates are going to spend no money in 40 to 44 of the states because they have already made up their mind. It comes down to, and within those states, this is where it gets really wild, within those states, those swing states, it comes down to a small number of counties, these kind of, and then a small number of voters, basically soccer moms in ex-urban areas who are sort of moderates.

5:11They're probably 50 ,000 people in a nation of 355 million are going to decide who is the most powerful person in the world. What do I think is going to happen? What are the externalities and the weirdness that will create? If I were Putin and I saw that the fastest blue line path of victory in Ukraine was the re-election of Donald Trump, I would take five, ten billion dollars and weaponize Albanian troll farms and AI. Russians have very smart scientists to start A-B testing different types of deep fake content that depositions Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. I think Vice President Harris has been a disaster.

5:47Everyone I speak to who works with her says she is a competent, impressive person. But in our nation, perception matters. And the perception of Vice President Harris to date is that she brightens up a room by leaving it with respect to her leadership skills. Who would I like to see as president? I think our bench is really deep on the Democratic side. I personally would really like to see Governor Newsom run for president. And as Trip to Israel kind of says that he's going to run for president, it's either going to be, I don't know, in 2024, most likely in 2028. I think he's sort of saying, I'm ready, coach, should our current quarterback.

6:20He's Steve Young on the bench saying, yeah, Joe Montana is great, done a great job. But if he blows a knee or comes out of the game or gets hurt, I'm ready. Put me in, coach. I'm warmed up. I'm ready. The fact that he runs the fifth largest economy in the world, California has a huge amount of problems. It also has a huge amount of assets. California runs a budget surplus. I think the contrast of youth, of stature, of someone who comes across as reasonable and empathetic, I think that's how we hold on to the White House. I think President Joe Biden's legacy will be fantastic. Let's go deeper into our bench.

6:53Let's put up a fantastic nominee who represents the future. Appreciate the question. Question number two. Hi, Scott. My name is Kennedy, and I'm 24, and I'm looking for some career trajectory advice. I have a degree in marketing and fashion, but for the past two years, I have been working in a buying and revenue planning role for what we can call a CPG company. For the past 12 months, I've been advocating for myself to move to the London office within this company. I was given an offer letter to join the marketing team over here. My visa was sponsored and I was relocated. On the day I was supposed to start, they told me that my position and salary can no longer be supported.

7:32I was given the option to relocate myself back to the U.S. and return to my own position or to take another role here and a$25 ,000 salary decrease. I'm eager to get experience building a brand and supporting a marketing team. So I'm wondering if it's in my best interest to go back to New York or maybe even L.A. and find the new job or take the salary cut just for the experience on a marketing team. Thank you for any thoughts you have on this situation. And thank you so much for the podcast. It's not only a source of joy, but keeps me highly informed. Kennedy, first off, I'm sorry. This just sucks at 24.

8:12I mean, it sounds like you're obviously pretty good. They relocated you. You're in London. You're killing it. And then you have this bullshit. I'm sorry. The one thing I would tell you, though, is that in 10 years, much less 20 or 30, you're going to look back and think, yeah, that sucked. But what you're going to be upset about is probably how upset you are about it. And that is, this is a bummer, but it's, this is meaningful, but it's not profound. And a lot of this is situational. My initial gut is the following, and I would need some more information around your specific situation. But that is, if you can afford to stay in London with that cut, I would probably stay.

8:54The opportunity to live in London, at the age of 24, I just wonder if you're going to look back and think, if you were to move back to the U.S., I think you're going to wonder and look back and think, you know, I should have done what I could to stay in London and experience that for a couple of years. It's like you got here, when I say here in London, you got the visa, you got relocated. I think you're more likely than not to think or wish you had tried to figure out a way to experience living in Europe as a young woman. You need a kitchen cabinet right now. You need someone within the company you trust, someone who knows you, someone you can talk to about the situation, who you can provide more color and nuance, who can give you some advice here.

9:35I mean, the bottom line is if you can't afford to be there, you can't afford to be there. And a$25 ,000 cut for a 24-year-old is real. Also, I would potentially think about finding a role or maybe doing a little bit of searching to see if there's an equivalent role in London at the salary you had with another firm. It sounds to me they like you, they want to keep you, but they've said we can't justify your role at the current cost. but the head fake of getting you over there and relocating you and then laying this shit on you I don't know that's pretty rough here's the bottom line you're 24 you're obviously very talented and you figured out a way to do what 99 of the world dreams of doing and that is getting to London getting a visa being relocated I just I would hate to see you I'd hate to see you give that up best of luck to you and again again don't be too hard on yourself the fact that you got there means that you're an impressive young woman and you are doing something right.

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11:45Welcome back. Question number three. Hey, Scott. My name is Ben, long-time listener and big fan of yours. Several months ago on Pivot, you mentioned you were considering a private investment in putt shack. It was kind of an offhand comment, but I've found it super interesting. I'd like to dive a bit more into it. With that opportunity as an example, could you walk us through the private investment experience that you often have? How opportunities generally arise? What sort of due diligence you conduct? How you decide whether or not to invest? How much you typically invest, and then ultimately what your relationship is like with the company after you've invested in them.

12:29I think it'd be super interesting to hear all that. Thank you so much for your content and your time. Appreciate it. Ben, thanks for the question. So first off, I believe that for the vast majority of people, the best investment strategy is probably low-cost index or ETF funds. that if you have a friend or you have access to a private investment and you want to take a small amount of your capital, 10, 15, 20 percent max at your age, then go for it. If you feel it's something you're really passionate about or it's something you're doing, then 100 percent. And sometimes to start your own business, you got to go all in and you don't have any choice to invest everything you have.

13:06And I get that. But to be blunt, I have access and opportunities that most people do not have. And it's taken me 30 years of working my ass off and luck to get those opportunities. So what is my approach? I coach a lot of companies and CEOs and boards and VCs and private equity funds. And occasionally I get the opportunity to co-invest with a venture capital or a private equity fund in a private company. And if they're smart people and it's a company or a sector that I feel like I understand and I can bring some value to, I will invest somewhere between, call it 1 % and 4 % of my net worth, never more than 5%, because I assume there is a huge probability, a real probability the investment will go to zero.

13:53Private companies are very volatile. They're illiquid. Over time, they should return more because of the illiquidity, but you got to assume or got to calculate the possibility to go to zero. And you also want to be able to sleep at night. So imagine it goes to zero and say, would I be able to sleep at night if it went to zero. And if the answer is no, you're investing too much, you shouldn't do it. So I co-invest with VCs and private equity firms in small private or sometimes bigger private companies. In the instance of Putt Shack, I met these really talented private equity guys out of Edinburgh.

14:24I have not invested, but the reason I like Putt Shack is I think there's going to be a huge trend towards trying to get out of the house. And as a father, I just see one, how hard it is to get your kids out of the house and find interesting things to do. and two, that I think you're going to see more and more of it post-COVID. I think there's sort of a revenge activity mindset. Let's get out of the house. Let's do stuff on the weekends. And I've been to Putt Shack. I think it's a neat concept. I think there's some barriers because the real estate is expensive to acquire. I just like it. And I want to be also, I want to invest in things I personally have an attachment to, but the majority of people don't have the opportunities I have.

15:04I did not have the opportunities I have until I was 30 years in. So what I would suggest is that if you find something, a private company that someone you know and trust is doing, you want to take a small amount of your capital, fine. You want to invest in yourself and you want to start a business, I get that you may have to go and put a disproportionate amount of your own human and financial capital. But for the most part, for the most part, most people should invest in diversified, low-cost funds. That is the best way to get rich slowly. What I would suggest is if you want to invest or take advantage of private companies, you invest in a fund that invests across a diversified set of private companies.

15:45I appreciate the question. Best of luck to you.

15:52That's all for this episode. If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehours at propgmedia.com. Again, that's officehours at propgmedia.com.

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