Office Hours: TikTok and Political Disinformation, the Insurance Industry and Climate Change, and the Work-Life Balance Conundrum

0:28Support for this show comes from Aura Frames. This deal is exclusive to listeners and frames sell out fast, so orders you now to get it in time for the holidays and support the show by mentioning us at checkout. Terms and conditions apply.

0:44Support for this show comes from Strawberry.me. Be honest. Are you happy with your job? Or are you stuck in one you've outgrown? Or never wanted in the first place? Sure, you can probably list the reasons for staying, but are they actually just excuses for not leaving? Let a career coach from strawberry.me help you get unstuck. Discover the benefits of having a dedicated career coach in your corner. Go to strawberry.me slash unstuck to claim a special offer.

1:26Welcome to the Prof2 Pod's Office Hours. This is the part of the show where we answer your questions about business, big tech, entrepreneurship, and whatever else is on your mind. If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehours at prof2media.com. Again, that's officehours at prof2media.com. First question. Hi, Scott. My name is Chris. I am 28 years old living in Manhattan with my fiance, and I'm a big fan of your content. I've been following the debates of TikTok's growing influence in the United States, and I, like you, believe this to be one of the biggest threats to the United States.

2:00You have been mentioning that part of the challenge with this debate is that the primary threat from TikTok is not their data collection practices, but something much harder to measure, their ability to weight the algorithm just slightly in the direction of pro-China, anti-American rhetoric. Although I agree with the difficulty of this challenge, I believe there is a very real opportunity for researchers and academics to study this theory. Taiwan is currently preparing for the very real threat of an invasion from China, as well as preparing for the upcoming presidential election, where the two leading candidates have very different views on how to handle the aggressions from China.

2:39The candidate from the incumbent party wants to increase military spending and will prepare to defend the nation, similar to Ukraine's defense against Russia. The other candidate wants to pursue talks with Beijing and is likely more willing to give up, quote, painful compromises, end quote, according to the Wall Street Journal. My question for you, if there was ever a time and situation for China to exercise their propaganda power via TikTok, isn't now the moment they would do so in Taiwan? And if so, shouldn't any and all academics, researchers, and U.S. intelligence be watching intently to understand the extent and execution of this power?

3:20Thank you for your time, and I'm a big fan of the show. Chris from New York City, a very thoughtful question and something I think a lot about, although I'm not sure I have a lot of answers here. So just some background. TikTok is, in fact, becoming a battleground for political disinformation in Taiwan ahead of the 2024 presidential election. Taiwan has been a testing ground for disinformation because of its importance to China and its ties to the U.S. It's sort of caught between a rock and a hard place, if you will. TikTok has discovered influencer networks of fake accounts targeting Taiwanese audiences, along with popular political TikTok accounts that promote Chinese interest.

3:57In fact, Bloomberg reported that Taiwan's National Security Bureau reviewed more than 1 ,800 cases of online disinformation just in the month leading into mid-July. Like this is a complicated one. So first off, let me say, I love TikTok. I just think it's amazing what they've done there. The idea, it's not really social, but it's essentially one, it's a cable network that has one channel, but that channel is all you'll ever need because it figures out that you like to watch other people get adjusted and see Great Danes. And also people talk about social justice issues that happen to also be very hot.

4:31That is what the algorithm has figured out I like. God, I can watch for hours. I can look down, turn on, you know, hit TikTok. And it's a couple things from a marketing standpoint. One, I think choice is vastly overrated. It's seen as a feature. I think it's a bug in most consumer marketing. The whole basis, especially retail is that Williams-Sonoma doesn't have 200 toasters. It has two, but they're the right two. And no matter which one you pick, you know that someone with much better taste in kitchen appliances has picked it out. And that's what TikTok is. It's the ultimate specialty retailer that's merchandise a voice, but that voice is specific to you.

5:05So I just think it's a phenomenon. I would like to see the people at TikTok get really wealthy. I think they deserve to. I think it's an incredible company that's created a ton of shareholder value. Having said that, if it's not spun to U.S. interests or international or non-CCP interests, I think we should ban it from the United States. And if I was running the NSA or our disinformation or propaganda efforts, of which we have a large extensive network. We do the same thing. And we had a social media platform that had enraptured, encapsulated, captured the majority of attention of young people in the age of 25 in China.

5:40I would slowly but surely run content that tries to make the argument for why you should not invade Taiwan. I would have content on there that puts their thumb on the scale of pro-American content and pro-democracy content. You'd be stupid not to do this. And guess what? The CCP is not stupid, and they're doing it to us. I mean, I think they'd be stupid not to do it. And not only that, It'd be impossible to trace. It'd be impossible to attribute. I think they're doing it right now. And it's a national security risk. And to your point, the mother of all disinformation is going to happen in the 2024 U.S.

6:12presidential election. And as you referenced, the Taiwanese election. And that's where we're going to see the first major, in my view, negative externality of AI, because I think AI is going to be fed with a bunch of prompts that say, make America feel worse about Joe Biden. And they'll come up with millions of tweets, posts, images, and they will elegantly figure out a way to take advantage of an amoral leadership in big tech who will find out after the election that, oh, what do you know? Our platforms were weaponized, but we're proud of the progress we've made and we know we need to do better.

6:43Yeah, fuck you. So anyways, I don't think it'd be as bad in Taiwan because I think their security forces and their elected representatives, quite frankly, are just a little bit more sane than us and haven't conflated First Amendment and free speech with propaganda from Russians and Chinese. It's just hilarious how badly the far right perverts the term First Amendment. First Amendment is that no law shall be passed by the government that inhibits free speech. They haven't done that. I think this is a big issue. I would like to see TikTok either banned. I think once it does become a reality that it might get banned, if I'm the CCP, I'm like, well, just wait, they'll get distracted with something else.

7:22And there's this non-zero probability that might happen. But I think on the eve of the ban, a national ban, they probably agree to spin it. Why? They have 300 billion reasons why. Specifically, this company is worth a minimum of 300 billion. It's probably worth closer to a trillion. And there's just so much money on the line, including from American investors that I believe even the CCP goes, okay, if we can't have this ultimate propaganda tool. By the way, do you think the Chinese in a million years would ever let us infiltrate their society with a social media platform that had direct ownership and direct influence from the CIA?

7:55I mean, it's just hilarious, the asymmetry here. But I think that your analysis is spot on. I think we need to take this seriously. But this, in fact, is a huge national security threat, both for America and for Taiwan. Sorry for the word salad. Next question. Hey, Scott. My name is Grace, and I'm a 16-year-old from Maryland who really enjoys listening to your show as well as Pivot, which I'll admit is a little weird for a 16-year-old. But my question is about climate change and insurance markets. So I've been thinking a lot about if climate change is such a pressing issue. Why don't we see, you know, companies taking advantage of this and providing some sort of insurance for future damage that climate change will cause?

8:42You know, what does it say about the actual severity of the issue? Looking for some insight. Really enjoy your show. Thanks. Grace from Maryland. Let's review. You're 16 and you're thinking about the link between climate change and insurance markets. If I could buy stock in a person, I would be going long grace right now. I was thinking, what was I thinking about? I don't know. I was thinking about, well, at 16, I was just thinking all I wanted was a car. That's literally what I thought morning, new and night was how did I save up enough money for a car? And occasionally I'm trying to think, what was I doing at 16?

9:1811th grade, I don't know, Star Wars? Anyway, so you're well ahead of the game and where most people are at 16. So as natural disasters are more frequent and more costly. Insurance companies, you could argue they're struggling to keep up. I would argue they're just raising their fees and they're killing it. I'm in Aspen and a friend of mine is in the insurance business and he's having his best year ever. And they claim that it's hard, but the bottom line is the premiums have just gone way up. I'm trying to renew my flood and hurricane insurance at our home in Florida and I'm blessed. So I might in fact pay off my mortgage because I don't have a lot of mortgage on this house because interest rates have gone up so much.

9:55But the nice thing about not having a mortgage is I don't need to buy insurance. And when you look at insurance, 45 cents on the dollar on average go to profits and administration, meaning that if you think of it as a product, you're giving them a dollar and you're giving 55 cents in claims back, which isn't a great deal. But at the same time, you have to be in a position of privilege where you can afford a big one that you could. I could afford if my house got swept away, I could afford to rebuild it. So insurance is yet another transfer of wealth from the poor to the rich. Research from Columbia University revealed that cumulative cost of disasters over the last 10 years exceeded$1 trillion.

10:30Meanwhile, the total cost for 360 events from 1980 to 2023 exceeds$2.6 trillion. So what is that? For 43 years, it was$2.5 trillion, and it's$1 trillion just in the last seven years. So we've had almost half the amount of cost just in the last seven years as we've had in the last 45 years. And why are the costs rising? because both climate change and of human factors, according to Redfin, a real estate company, more people move to high-risk areas than low-risk areas from 2016 to 2020, specifically Florida. Also, Georgia, South Carolina, Tennessee are growing faster than the national average. And due to the frequency and severity of natural disasters, insurance companies are faced with paying out more than claims.

11:13According to Swiss Re, the world's largest reinsurer, property losses from natural disasters caused by climate change could increase by 60%. sun. And a lot of them are just refusing to insure certain areas. And look, it's like with climate change, we can either pay for the transfer to renewables or some sort of carbon capture or something, taxes and investments to move us away from an earth that continues to cook us, or we can just pay for it in other ways that are quite frankly going to be more expensive and take a much greater toll on our physical and emotional well-being. So it strikes me that we're going to have to deal with this.

11:50In terms of the insurance market, Grace, I would argue if you ever meet someone who makes a shit ton of money and is charming but not that smart, chances are they're in insurance. At least that's been my experience. So you're going to see insurance rates just go up dramatically. I just see that as a fact. And their profit margins will stay healthy and they all make a shit ton of money. So I would like to see a massive investment in the requisite programs and taxes such that we can begin to lower the temperature in the earth. It's also going to require, there's just no getting around it, massive bilateral or cross-border cooperation because a lot of it comes down to China and India.

12:31And we need to set a role model and we're obviously a big contributor, but a lot of this is going to be outside of other markets. But let me just circle back. If you're thinking about these issues, it strikes me that you should think about business school. I'm just trying to think. It's just so impressive you've been thinking about these issues. But yeah, insurance is just a function. They do actuarial tables and they say, okay, greater likelihood your house is going to go up in a super fire or flood. Let's just raise their rates. So all it means is that individuals, yet again, especially young people who have to get insurance, end up paying more for health insurance, end up paying more for fire and wind insurance.

13:13So see above more taxes on the people who can't afford it. But yeah, the insurance industry is just going to raise its rates, Grace. And after you graduate from business school, call me and I'll invest in your private equity firm that will roll up the insurance market. Thanks for the question, Grace, and keep on keeping on. 16 and thinking about these issues. Jeez, what an impressive young woman. We have one quick break before our final question. Stay with us.

13:44Support for the show comes from Train Dreams, the new film from Netflix. Train Dreams is a film that stays with you. It's about a man standing alone against the backdrop of a changing America. What makes it powerful isn't the scale of a story, but its simplicity. It's a reminder that a life doesn't have to be big to be meaningful, that quiet endurance, grace, and decency are their own kind of heroism. In a world obsessed with progress, Train Dreams asks us to take pause and reflect on our relationship with loss, nature, and the need to belong. And maybe that's the modern journey, not domination or conquest, but learning how to live with change, grief, and tenderness without losing our sense of purpose.

14:23Train Dreams captures the tension between progress and preservation, between the machines that build our world and the nature that still defines it. In a time when we're all searching for purpose, Train Dreams feels timeless because the frontier isn't just a place, it's a state of being. Train Dreams, now playing only on Netflix.

14:46Sometimes, the difference between success and failure comes down to one chance encounter. Or following a counterintuitive instinct. Or ignoring conventional wisdom to make a bold decision. Like when the founders at Palo Alto Networks wanted to redefine cybersecurity for the modern age. Everybody thought we were crazy. Nobody would use the cloud for cybersecurity. Or when mobile gaming giant Supercell could only rewrite the rules of the industry after failure in the company's formative stages. Many of the best things we've learned have actually come through failures. These are all examples of Crucible Moments, turning points in a company's journey that made them what they are today.

15:29Hosted by Sequoia Capital's Rolafota, Crucible Moments is back for a new season with stories from Zipline, Stripe, Palo Alto Networks, Supercell, and more. Subscribe to season three of Crucible Moments. New episodes are out now, and you can catch up on seasons one and two at cruciblemoments.com, on YouTube, or wherever you get your podcasts. Listen to Crucible Moments today.

16:00Welcome back. Question number three. Hey, Prof. G. Big fan of the podcasts and your books. I've always valued your opinions on the delicate balance between building financial security and family. As you said, it can be hard to have it all, especially at once. I've also heard you recommend focusing on the financial security while you're young so that you have that for a family later. That's not where my path took me. I fell in love young and had two kids before 30. I have been able to work my way up at a prestigious insurance firm, but I am becoming ever increasingly aware of the passage of time, especially for my kids.

16:37I did not want to look back in 10 years and realize that I prioritized clients over them. Any advice for somebody in my shoes? Thanks. You're nameless, so I'll just call you nameless. I'll just call you dad, so dad or insurance dad. This is a deeply personal decision, and there's no silver bullet here, and there's no right way. I can tell you what my way was. My way was I decided to work pretty much around the clock until about the age of 45 because I wanted economic security. I didn't want to change the world for the better. I didn't want to be happy, if you will. So that wasn't my priority. My priority was I wanted to take care of my mom who got sick and I wanted to have the life that I saw people had with money in a capitalist society.

17:26And it came at a cost. It cost me my first marriage. It cost me my hair. And even when I had kids, it cost me a lot with them. I tried to be home for bath time, but a lot of times I wasn't. I remember several times, several times when my kids were really young, coming home after like three weeks on the road, trying to bang it all out. I'd come home, I'd be late, I'd go into my kid's room, and I could visibly notice that one of my sons had grown while I was gone. And I think, God, is this worth it? And the reality is, for me, it was. I get to do these wonderful things and not have financial stress and i'm much happier and more relaxed and they get to go to You know, they get a lot of opportunities because of our economic security.

18:11So for me, it was worth it But I think balance is a myth and you just have to trade off you just have to decide along with your spouse your partner What is the right balance for you? And you might decide i'm not one of these people who lives to work I'm, just not going to do go your path scott. That's just not me And then that's fine. You just have to have an honest conversation around what that means around your burn. Where are you going to live? Are you going to lower your cost of living such that you don't have economic stress? Because economic stress, you know, economic stress is worse than not having time with your kids.

18:45Economic stress is the number one cause of divorce. It'll make you less present with your kids. It'll make you not as nice a father. You know, you're going to be wildly stressed and that whole household is going to feel it if there's real economic stress. So maybe you decide you're going to work to live and you're going to work a reasonable amount of time and be a good, solid citizen. And there's nothing wrong with that. But what does that mean in terms of your lifestyle? So I think these are very personal questions that only you and your spouse can answer. I decided to trade off a lot of time with my kids when they were very young, such that I could have more time with them when they were a little bit older.

19:21And there's no guarantee. A lot of people work their asses off and still don't get the kind of economic security or professional traction they'd hope for. There's an X factor to all of this. But I think an open, honest conversation with your spouse around what are the tradeoffs here? What are we willing to sacrifice? Because, you know, quite frankly, I get in arguments a lot with my kid's mother around, you know, you're not spending enough time with the kids. I'm like, well, you know what? No one's going to pay me the kind of money we need to hang out with the kids all fucking day. So it causes stress in our relationship still.

19:52and I would reach out to some people in your life that you trust, be very transparent with them, ask for their advice, but I'm going to finish with I missed a lot, and it was worth it. It was worth it. Thanks so much for the question, and good luck to you and yours. That's all for this episode. If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehoursofprop2media.com. Again, that's officehoursofprop2media.com.

20:24This episode was produced by Caroline Shagrin. Jennifer Sanchez is our associate producer, and Drew Burrows is our technical director. Thank you for listening to the Prop G pod from the Vox Media Podcast Network. We will catch you on Saturday for No Mercy, No Malice. It was read by George Hahn and on Monday with our weekly market show. 300 sensors, over a million data points per second. How does F1 update their fans with every stat in real time? AWS is how. From fastest laps to strategy calls, AWS puts fans in the pit. It's not just racing. It's data-driven innovation at 200 miles per hour. AWS is how leading businesses power next-level innovation.

21:13What do walking 10 ,000 steps every day, eating five servings of fruits and veggies, and getting eight hours of sleep have in common. They're all healthy choices. But do all healthier choices really pay off? With prescription plans from CVS Caremark, they do. Their plan designs give your members more choice, which gives your members more ways to get on, stay on, and manage their meds. And that helps your business control your costs, because healthier members are better for business. Go to cmk.co.access to learn more about helping your members stay adherent. That's cmk.co.access