Peter Zeihan on How the War With Iran Could Reshape the Global Economy

20:04Peter Zeihan:physically intact. What I'm suggesting is we might cross the Rubicon on the oil facilities very, very soon because the strategy that we have to defend against the Shahheads requires ammo that is available in very, very limited supply that cannot be replenished and is very, very expensive. We've basically ignored the lessons of the Ukraine war. And Iran's cost-benefit ratio here is quite robust when it comes to targeting these things.

20:30Scott Galloway:It's interesting because I always thought there was asymmetric advantage to us that I hear these numbers that the number of projectiles they're firing has declined by 83 percent that they've run out. And what you're saying is we're on the wrong side of this asymmetric warfare, that they can produce these cheap projectiles. And we're used to expensive defense systems, and we can't keep up with the cheap ones. You think the advantage around projectiles goes to Iran?

20:54Peter Zeihan:Well, let's break it into two categories here. If you talk missiles, there you need a 50-ton truck that is specially modified in order to take the missile in the first place and get into position to fire. So launch capability. Exactly. And that sort of launcher system is not something that you can just whip up in an afternoon. That requires work. A lot of the components have to be imported. And so the United States has, for solid reasons, Israel, for solid reasons, has gone after the missiles first because per unit they can cause a lot more damage. They're a lot more difficult to intercept because you basically get them on their terminal approach and that's it.

21:27Peter Zeihan:And that's what the PAC-3s are for. shaheads um their launch system is a little rail that you can bolt onto the back of a pickup and it takes one welder about four hours to put one of those together and they have a lot more shaheads than they have missiles so on the missile side of the equation we're actually in reasonably good shape the iranians stored a lot of these things underground in places that we knew so we just collapsed the entrance and you know don't have to worry about those and again but you can make a shahead in a garage it's got components that are styrofoam and plywood they're really hard easy to put together.

22:00Peter Zeihan:They fly in a straight line. They're fairly easy to intercept with any number of weapon systems. But if you keep firing them a few hundred a day, which is exactly what has continued to happen, eventually enough are going to get through to make a difference because we will run out of interceptors.

22:19Peter Zeihan:We'll be right back after a quick break.

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25:38Scott Galloway:Iran has been punching below its weight class for a while. I love the stat you just threw out that they used to produce 4 million barrels a day. Now it's 1 million. And a more stable Middle East, a neutral, not necessarily a pro-West Iran, but a more stable one, vastly more production, lower oil prices, biggest tax cut or increase is pretty much around the price of oil. essentially a moderate alliance, peace in the Middle East where everyone, you know, I always thought that once October 7th has calmed down, you might see a normalization of relationships between the two biggest economies, Saudi Arabia and Israel.

26:12Scott Galloway:Iran, no longer the largest state sponsor of terror. I saw a lot of upside here. It sounds to me like if you were, and you may be, I know you advise corporations on geopolitical concerns, but if you're advising the U.S. government, it sounds to me like your basic advice would be end this thing as quickly as possible. Am I putting words in your mouth?

26:31Peter Zeihan:God, I would love to say that it was that simple. We've crossed the line now. Iran has to change their strategic policy based on the concept that the United States can come for them at any time. That means more, at a minimum, it means a nuclear program that has a deliverable weapon. We've entered a much riskier stage of this. Now, if you compare the tools that they were using before that we really hated, most notably paramilitaries operating throughout the region that is at a four decade low now because of what the obama the trump and the biden administration did in cracking down on their oil sales without the money they weren't able to keep flushing these groups with the resources that were necessary in order to control them and so there are now very few places in the middle east after 10 days of war where we're seeing this sort of sectarian violence that we used to see during the war on terror because the Iranians just don't have the cash.

27:27Peter Zeihan:So the picture is evolving. But by going for the throat, we've encouraged them to reach for different tools.

27:35Scott Galloway:And I think the key number here is 100. And that is oil swiped to about 112 bucks last night. Now it's around 100. Talk about the second order effects here. I mean, for example, we saw the COSPI, essentially the Dow of South Korea off 6.5%. As we're focused on gas going up 50 cents a gallon here, we have markets crashing in Asia. What are the second order effects of$100 triple digit oil?

28:01Peter Zeihan:Well, let me start by saying that the market reaction yesterday was too much. Basically, we had our first energy assets targeted. The Israelis went after some oil depots around Tehran and everyone thought that meant that oil production infrastructure was gone. That is not what happened. And that's why we saw quite a big drop back. But the overall theme that this is a really big deal is a solid point right now the persian gulf at normal exports about 20 million barrels a day which is half of internationally traded oil roughly 80 of that goes to east asia with china being the number one country to take it india number two japan number three korea number four uh based on whose numbers you're using most countries in the east asian rim have 200 days of import cover that Indians don't have nearly that much.

28:50Peter Zeihan:And there is a debate as to whether or not the Chinese oil reserve exists. Chinese numbers, we just don't know. But they may have as little as 40 days of import cover. So if this conflict lasts for, let's just pick a number, a month, that's enough to probably break the economic models of most of East Asia. and if we have the physical assets that produce the crude take significant damage then east Asia is gone and it never comes back with China being the first one to go down because they just don't have sufficient alternatives from anywhere else and that assumes that the Europeans do not continue with their crackdown on the shadow fleet of Russian tankers which has been accelerating massively over the last two months.

29:42Peter Zeihan:This is one of the many, many things that I identified 10 years ago when I basically talked about what would end globalization. This is one of them that would do it without any of the help, any help from any of the others.

29:52Scott Galloway:And now we're here. It feels as if what you're saying in terms of, I mean, it feels like$100 oil is probably good for Russia and very bad for China. Is that an oversimplification? It's probably good for Russia

30:02Peter Zeihan:if they can continue to export. With what the Europeans are doing with the shadow fleet, they may be about to lose four million barrels of air exports.

30:09Scott Galloway:So say more about Europeans getting in the way of the Shadow Fleet.

30:12Peter Zeihan:Yeah, so we've gone from nobody wanting to touch it for various reasons to now we have every couple of days another European country taking another tanker. Sweden was the last one to take a ship over the weekend. Belgium took one last week, France the week before. They're building up the legal and institutional infrastructure to do it by the book from their point of view. And of course, the United States has gone after the Venezuelan Flato Shadow Fleet, and the Indians have taken a couple of ships from the Iranian Shadow Fleet. So this is the last year for that, unless we have a starkly robust change of policy in the not-too-distant future.

30:49Peter Zeihan:And having the Persian Gulf removed from the equation might be what pushes them in that direction. But we're kind of in this perfect storm here, where the Shadow Fleet is looking really wobbly. the persian gulf for the moment is gone and one of the things that everyone in the world forgets is under the 2015 omnibus bill during the obama administration the u.s president got the authority to with the flick of a pen shut off all oil exports um no review no congressional approval or constipation required so we're in a situation here where the world might lose persian gulf russian and american crude all at the same time and um there would be a show when that happens who are the winners so far here it's too soon to tell um israel certainly thinks that they are a winner because they've gotten the united states to basically fight their war for them uh russia at the moment with the shadow fleet still in play looks good at the moment um And Urals crude trading in India is already priced higher than all the international benchmarks because of the demand.

31:56Peter Zeihan:And then, of course, the United States, because we have that clause that allows us to remove ourselves from global energy. And anything that wrecks Europe and East Asia at the same time will really hurt us from a consumables point of view because our manufacturing hasn't been built out. But longer term, this is a society ending event potentially for a lot of countries, but not here.

32:19Scott Galloway:So it feels as if Iran, justifiably, is sucking all the media oxygen out of the room right now. What do you focus on? What do you think is the most important thing geopolitically occurring outside of Iran right now?

32:28Peter Zeihan:outside of iran uh ukraine is getting a really interesting um very very short version starlink was being allowed to be used to guide russian cruise missiles and drones uh long term about allowing them even hit moving targets so you take a shy head whether it's a russian shy head or a iranian shy head and if you put a portable starlink on it you can guide it in real time all the way to the last second. And so the restriction is on straight line flight go away. The idea that you can only target something that you've chosen at the time of launch goes away. And they were literally hitting moving trains with these things.

33:11Peter Zeihan:After the Ukrainians proved to the world using the equipment recovered that Starlink was basically actively aiding and embedding in mass murder, Starlink changed some of their policies and you can no longer use Starlink's in the theater, in a moving way, and you have to be part of a white list. And in doing that, they basically gutted the ability of the Russians to communicate to and from and among the front. And so in the last month, the Ukrainians have been on the offensive throughout many parts of the front and actually captured a lot of territory. It's kind of underlined how these new technologies, number one, aren't under government control, they're under private citizen control.

33:53Peter Zeihan:And two, their ability to be extended and removed can have massive impacts on strategic decision making. The Russian ability to communicate among their forces pre-war was pretty poor, and that's one of the reasons why the first year of the war went so badly, and how the Kyrsten counter-offensive, for example, was so humiliating for them. They then basically used Starlink wholesale. They've been using Western platforms to communicate, and so now that some of those have been removed, They really don't have a FALBAT plan that is more sophisticated than radio, and radio can be tapped. So I don't want to suggest that we're seeing a collapse of the front.

34:33Peter Zeihan:That's way too extreme. There's a lot of minefields. It's not that simple. But their ability to manage the front has just dissolved in the last month.

34:41Scott Galloway:And so are you hopeful that we might see a settlement? It strikes me that the peace plan offered by the Americans was basically a Russian peace plan. and it feels as if we want, ideally we want to see Ukraine in a position of strength when they negotiate what ultimately might be a peace plan. Where do you think, if you were to speculate where we would be in a year in that conflict, what is your thesis?

35:05Peter Zeihan:There weren't a lot of people who saw the Ukraine war coming. I was one of them. I was probably the most optimistic for the Ukrainians' chances, and even I thought this was all going to be over in a year. Here we are in year five. So any forecast that I make on that is going to be very loosey-goosey that I have very low confidence in. The technology is changing. the political alliances are changing the starling thing who could have even imagined that five years ago uh what i will say is that not once in russian history have the russians ever negotiated an end to a conflict unless they had already won or already lost and the idea that this somehow is going to be different is stupid.

35:47Peter Zeihan:From the Russian point of view, they have to reach the Danube, the Carpathians, the Vistola, and the Baltic, and they will not stop until they get there. And any talk of talks is just that. It would simply be an opportunity for the Russians to insist that somebody else give them something that they haven't been able to capture militarily, and then as soon as they're ready, they push again. And anyone who tells you otherwise really doesn't understand the Russians.

36:14Scott Galloway:It strikes me that the core confidence of Russia is, you know, the media is, and I need the land acknowledgement, every death of an American serviceman or servicewoman is a tragedy for their families. We've lost seven people, and it's got a disproportionate, a lot of warranted media mentions and people outraged. What are the Russians losing? A thousand people a day? to that. I mean, it just strikes me that the Russian capability to endure loss is kind of their core competence. And I'm reminded what Masayoshi said, the head of SoftBank said, who would you rather be in a fight against? Someone who's really smart or someone who's really crazy?

36:54Scott Galloway:He said, you want to avoid the fight with the guy who's crazy. Do you think that it hurts us that, quite frankly, we just don't seem to have a willingness to endure much

37:06Peter Zeihan:suffering uh you know the united states has not been in a position where it's back has been to the wall since the civil war so honestly we've not been tested in a way that a lot of cultures in the world have faced in the last century century and a half it's just not something we've ever had to deal with i mean the last existential external war that we fought was with mexico that wasn't a syrian experience for most americans you really have to go to like back to the war of 1812 for us facing an external force that really could have had us so i don't think that's a fair comparison personally uh the united states military since before the world wars has been designed to project power out and if you're going to project power out you will never win on the numbers you have to win on technology and reach and speed and lethality and being able to choose the time and place of the fight.

38:02Peter Zeihan:And if that is what you're doing, you spend a lot more money per person in order to project than you would by just putting a gun in someone's hand and sending them charging the front. And so when we do suffer casualties, it's magnified. That's absolutely true, but that's by design almost. We show up with an aircraft carrier. Everyone else shows up with a donkey. It's a different type of fight.

38:32Scott Galloway:And thoughts on Europe, which has just been in sort of a, it feels like a self-induced coma for the last 30 years. Impact on Europe?

38:40Peter Zeihan:If Persian Gulf crude really does go away, they're going to have to make a really hard decision about Russia and Ukraine. If you had asked me five years ago whether or not they would have stood up to the Russians in the way they have, I would have laughed at you because they had taken every opportunity in the previous two decades to give in to the russians at every opportunity especially on energy politics and it's only with ukraine where they where they realize this really is about their long-term survival but if all of a sudden the only other source of crude on the planet goes away then a lot of them have some very difficult decisions to make they're not nearly nearly as energy intensive as in the united states they probably get the same amount of GDP for half the crude.

39:25Peter Zeihan:But that doesn't mean that they don't need it, and that doesn't mean that there's a good solution. Green tech in Europe, as a rule, doesn't work nearly as well as it does in, say, the United States. They don't have the equivalent of the Great Plains or the American Southwest that are good for wind or solar. And so even if they were to somehow magically wave a wand and everyone had an EV, they just wouldn't be able to do much. They don't have the charging capacity. Even if the infrastructure was there, the climate doesn't help them there and so their future is probably coal specifically lignite and that will be a bitter pill for them to swallow but if your choice is your environmental goals or your national security i know what the germans and the poles will select because they really don't have another option but we are certainly looking at the end of europe inc as a major manufacturing presence in the world.

40:20Peter Zeihan:At the same time, we're looking at the end of China Inc. as a major manufacturing presence in the world. And either of those issues would be globe-spanning catastrophe impacts. And to have them both at the same time, at the same time we have a global energy crisis, not to put too point of point on it, but I wrote a book about this. And it's a little frustrating that I haven't retired before it came true. So here we are.

40:45Scott Galloway:say the war does not go well it damages damages the u.s reputationally but china who is totally uh import or energy independent or dependent most asia energy dependent russia bogged down in a war obviously this is not good for iran it it continues to be an economic impairment for europe it's like the u.s which is energy independent very strong internal consumption economy, no one bombing them, even if we lose damage reputationally across the globe and a phrase our alliances, aren't we kind of like the U.S. dollar right now? And that is everyone shitposts the dollar, but where else are they going to go?

41:24Scott Galloway:Even if things go wrong here with this war and the whole world is diminished, aren't we the least diminished of the world's superpowers?

41:34Peter Zeihan:Two things on that. Number one, from an economic point of view, the only real weakness the United States has is in manufacturing, whether it's the primary processing of raw commodities like, say, cobalt or lithium or whatever else, or cars or jets and everything in between. We're a services economy. We design the systems that everybody else uses, but we have not built out the industrial plant that is necessary for us to fly solo in the world. We started working on some of that under Biden. It collapsed under Trump, too, because of the tariff policy because no one knows what the rules are. We've literally had 6 ,000 tariff changes in the last year.

42:13Peter Zeihan:And so businesses has basically stopped building things. They'd finished what they started, but no one is starting anything new. And so we're really going to get sucker punched in this specific scenario, which I think is a realistic conversation to have because we will now have to do all of that while we have a shortage of everything that would have allowed us to build it faster before. As for the dollar, long term, two oceans, globally dominant military, strong population, young population, consumer-based population, the need to double the size of the industrial plant, all of those argue for a strong dollar going forward.

42:51But until 11 days ago,

42:54Peter Zeihan:we had an erratic policy on regulation, on tax, rule of law was being broken down, We were deliberately breaking our trade relations with countries that are integrated into our manufacturing system. All of the short-term issues argued for a weaker dollar. You throw a war, and all those minor details really don't matter anymore. Because we're really looking at the bedrock of what allows the rest of the world to function being broken actively here. And so, yeah, there's only one place to put your money, and it's here.

43:31Peter Zeihan:We'll be right back.

43:42Scott Galloway:So the thing about war is that your enemy gets a voice and there's always an X factor. And it feels like war in the Middle East is X squared factor. There's just, you just don't know what's going to happen, right? Or you know, you know, the unknown is likely to become visible. Have you thought about or thought through any potential black swan events, whether it's Europe selling our debt and spiking inflation or a nuclear detonation? When you think if you're, I imagine you're asked to assess risk for some of your corporate clients, what are the risks that we're not seeing right now?

44:14Peter Zeihan:I'm not worried about a debt drop. Let's say everyone around the world decided to sell their bonds at the same moment. and so they start trading at 20 cents on the dollar maybe even below the u.s federal reserve in 30 seconds can expand the money supply and they just retire all of it at 20 of the cost i mean honestly from an economic point of view that would be lovely i would love it if everybody did that at the same time that would be fantastic so not worried about that nukes two weeks ago wasn't really worried now i see that as a very realistic scenario because if you're ron and you've got you're a dead supreme leader and you're being demanded to surrender unconditionally why would you not build and use a nuke um delivery to the united states would be the complication uh it suggests it would need to come in on a cargo facility into a port where the screening is on land and not at sea and that would argue most strongly for houston or New York City.

45:17Peter Zeihan:Those are the logical places to do it. And that has gone from something I really didn't even worry about at all to something that all of a sudden is one of the leading scenarios.

45:26Scott Galloway:Is there a country that you think plays the leadership role here in being, whether it's Oman or being sort of the Switzerland here that can somehow get cooler minds to prevail? Is there a nation or a hero we need right now that we weren't expecting to hear from? There is no country and no leader who Trump respects enough to serve as a mediator.

45:51Peter Zeihan:In fact, Trump thinks that he should be the only mediator, period. So I find that unlikely. For the new guy in Iran, he's a very, very violent, militaristic individual. He hasn't been in charge long enough for us to know what his geopolitical preferences are. But I find it difficult to believe that as he's building up his institution of the presidency, that his first thought will be to reach out to a third party. And even if he did, I'm not sure who that could be. The only country that really has any influence, and it's very, very thin, would be China. And Xi is a little bit like Trump in that he's purged the system around him to such a huge degree that he's not getting good information either.

46:43so all that leaves us with is putin and we're already seeing some of the differences on the

46:50Peter Zeihan:front line in ukraine because the iranians were primary weapon suppliers to russia during the ukraine war and that has gone to zero overnight so assuming that trump has any awareness of that it's difficult for me to see trump accepting putin as a mediator either i just don't see who it could B, there are plenty of countries that might offer good offices and, you know, be not the broker, but just host the talks. But no one who can intervene on either side.

47:19Scott Galloway:It's funny. The U.S. used to be the operating system trying to, you know, securing the supplies or the roots of oil, settling dollars.

47:27Peter Zeihan:That was the deal we cut with all the allies during the Cold War. We keep the oil flowing. You're on our side. And our laws, our IP protection, kind of the operating system, protecting or suppressing or keeping in check rogue nations.

47:40Scott Galloway:And it feels, to a certain extent, like we are now that rogue nation. Is that fair?

47:46Peter Zeihan:um rogue nations are ones that uh violate the existing order and if there is no existing order is anyone really a rogue nation um i've got lots of beefs professional strategic and personal with the trump administration i don't make a lot of i don't put a lot of effort into hiding that but globalization was always going to fail the the global demographic picture was evolving in the direction where there just weren't going to be enough young people to do the consuming that would make trade possible and the idea that the united states would continue to hold up the ceiling in a post-cold war world when there was no agreement as to who the bad guy was that was always going to fail and between 2025 and 2035 is always the decade that i have identified my entire professional career about when it was all going to break.

48:40Peter Zeihan:Trump is speeding that process up. He's compressing it. And that's going to cause a lot of pain in a lot of places in the United States, just for one. But to think it wasn't ever going to happen, I think, is deluding ourselves. We were always going to get to some version of where we are now and where we're about to be.

49:03Scott Galloway:So let's bring this home. When your clients ask you to give them the state of play in the U.S. economically and in terms of the political landscape, what's your answer?

49:11Peter Zeihan:Yeah, well, I mean, economically, I've been telling them for several years now that if you're dependent on China, you just should assume that that all goes to zero and you get none of it back. And I've actually let go a couple of clients recently who just refused because it's a waste of my time at this point. um the question now is whether or not you can build out manufacturing plant in an environment of extreme regulatory uncertainty in the united states this is by far the most hostile administration in my life to the business community because of all the constant ambient chaos changes but this is what we have to deal with so you have to find a way to expand your production lines to take in the steps that are not in the western hemisphere and you have to do it now uh and yes that's going to be expensive and yes capital is more expensive than it was and yes labor is more expensive than it was even before you consider the immigration crackdown but this is just the environment that you have and there is no going back to the east asian rim and maybe by the end of this year there's no going back to europe either so you have to deal with what you have and what you have is here and that involves Trump for better or for worse.

50:22Peter Zeihan:But we're now at the moment where we've run out of prep time and the day has arrived.

50:29Scott Galloway:Do you have any predictions for 2026 in terms of the midterms or who you think will be the Republican or Democratic nominee in 20A?

50:39Peter Zeihan:I do not. The Republican Party is gone. The national security conservatives, the fiscal conservatives the business conservatives the law and our conservatives have all been ejected from the party it is simply trump now so assuming that trump is still alive when we get to that point he will hand pick whoever it is and whoever it is will then have to toe the line with him on everything until such time as the election happens because if they don't he will then change his choice. And he retains a cult-like devotion from MAGA, and he will be able to do that without a problem, no matter what his mental state happens to be.

51:18Peter Zeihan:The Democrats are simply chaotic. They've lost the Hispanics. They've lost organized labor. They've lost the youth vote. So the idea that either of these sides can win ever again is kind of funny, but someone has to lose more. and so uh i have no prediction whatsoever because they're just in a race to the bottom in terms of their capacity to attract anyone their the strength on both sides is their ability to repel voters and i can't tell you which one is worse right now peter zion is a geopolitical strategist and

51:58Scott Galloway:founder of zion on geopolitics i just you are really one of the things i love about america is that you can, we mature such interesting people and give them the opportunity to have influence and make good livings. And you are just, you were built in a factory from parts of lesser people who do that. I'm really just, I'm fascinated with you as our people and very much appreciate your time here, Peter.

52:34Scott Galloway:this episode was produced by jennifer sanchez and laura janier cammy reek is our social producer bianca rosario ramirez is our video editor and drew burrows is our technical director thank you for listening to the prop g pod from prop g media

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