Prof G Markets: GameStop Buying Bitcoin, an Activist Play at Lyft, & Gen Z Unemployment

26:11And Michael did say that you have to be able to survive this volatility. This volatility is massive. The one thing he said that I really liked was he said, you know, fire is dangerous, but if you put fire in a car, it can move the car. I thought that was very sexy, the way he said that. It was very sexy. Look, he's really, he's an amazing salesman. He has great analogies. But at one moment, he compares it to real estate. And he says, this is like buying real estate in Manhattan. And the next moment, he's comparing it to commodities. And the next moment, he's comparing it to Henry Ford and the fire that fueled the car.

26:46I mean, these are all very different arguments that he's picking and choosing. I think you're a little jelly. I think you're a little jelly. Okay, what I can guarantee, the comments are going to say Ed is jealous of him, for sure. I will meet you in the comments section. We'll see what people say. Yeah, we'll meet in the comments section. And I can tell you what the comments will say based on who owns Bitcoin and who doesn't. Yeah, exactly. It's just going to be 50-50. We'll be right back after the break with a look at an activist play at Lyft. If you're enjoying the show so far and you haven't subscribed, be sure to give Profit to your market to follow wherever you get your podcasts.

27:48Thank you. the app. Download today. Every day, millions of customers engage with AI agents like me. We resolve queries fast. We work 24-7 and we're helpful, knowledgeable and empathetic. We're built to be the voice of the brands we serve. Sierra is the platform for building better, more human customer experiences with AI. No hold music, no generic answers, no frustration. Visit sierra.ai to learn more. Not all journalism is the same. Take The Guardian. Our coverage has something unique. Fierce independence. Nobody owns us or tells us what we can and can't say. So we're free to report the whole picture.

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29:00We're back with Profit Markets. Activist investor Engine Capital has taken a 1 % stake in Lyft and is calling for a strategic review of the company. They've raised concerns about Lyft's stock performance, their strategic direction and governance, and they're also calling for the removal of Lyft's dual-class share structure, and they've proposed new candidates for the board. The stock rose more than 2 % on that news, but it is still down more than a third over the past year. I would first like to point out, Scott, which is what an unserious activist play this is, because they're asking to reorganize the shareholder structure and get rid of the dual-class shares.

29:39Dual-class shares exist so that this doesn't happen. They exist so that founders can protect themselves from these activists coming in and trying to change the company. So I don't think this is going to go through. I don't think they're going to get what they want here. Maybe you have a different view. But it does raise an important question, which is what can Lyft do to revive itself? It is performing very poorly. It's down around 85 % since it went public. And you were once an activist investor. And from a minor setting, you also know the CEO of Lyft as well. You're friendly with him. So what is your reaction to this activist play?

30:14And perhaps if you were the activist yourself, how would you approach this company strategically? So your first point is the right one. It's almost comical that they've called for them to declassify their share structure. Good luck with that. Now, I think what they'd want to do is show up and say, we have a huge stake here and we want to help you. the thing about activism that I learned is that typically when you go into a board of a company, you find out that you're not as smart as you think, and they're not as dumb as you'd hoped. And I don't do hostile plays anymore because what I find you want to do is you want to show up with a big stake and say, we're here to help.

30:58We're smart people, and we want to be assets and help you brainstorm and maybe even provide more capital, provide introductions, brainstorm strategically. I find that's just a much more effective way to try and build shareholder value. And activism, and one of the reasons I was drawn to it because it's due to my personality, it attracts a disproportionate number of assholes. And they come out guns blazing. And what they fail to realize is that the people they're trying to embarrass publicly with their poison pen letters, unless it's really egregious, are humans and will circle to wagons and defend it even if your points are right.

31:34So my approach around this stuff evolved to, okay, we're big shareholders. We want to work with you. Our default kind of operating system is to be great shareholders and great partners. But if in a year or two years, you're either stonewalling us or just making stupid decisions, we're going to go gangster on you. But we're here to help. We're going to try and get along. I find that's a more effective, what I call forceful yet dignified approach to this. Now, Lyft is an example of a number two that has not been able to establish differentiation. And it has been a shitty place because Dara has made some really deft moves around acquisition of food delivery.

32:15He's just done a really good job. And they've kind of run away with it. And since the IPO, Lyft has lost 85 % of its value, while Uber shares are up nearly 80%. Year-to-date, Lyft is down 11%. Uber's up 18%. Uber trades at 3.6 times sales and Lyft trades just at 0.9, half its historical average. So this company is struggling. It doesn't have the scale and it doesn't really have a niche to kind of focus on and sort of send a brand identity. And the example I would use is a car pulls up, it has an Uber light, and then I see it turn off its Uber light and it's a Lyft light. So, okay. If there's no differentiation in driver or equipment, that means, okay, and Uber's got scale, that means the only thing Lyft can do is compete on price.

33:04And if you're hiring the same driver in the same cars, how do you compete on price? That's just a downward spiral. You don't have the scale. So Lyft needs to find a strategy. Now, what should they do? I would not circle the wagons. I would invite these guys in. I don't know how much of the company they bought, but I find the best thing to do on an incumbent board is to say, the best way to shut up an activist is just to put them on your board. Just say, come on in, the water's fine. And put them on your board. If they purchased a lot of shares and then they have to shut up because of Reg D or insider disclosure rules, see if they have good ideas, listen to them, and get them kind of on your side, if you will.

33:42So that's how I would handle the activist. The tougher problem is what the fuck does Lyft do? And my view is they have really two choices here. The first is to pursue a sale. And I could see a big automobile company thinking, all right, we want to go vertical and we want to have an offering. We're Tata Motors. We want to have Range Rovers and Jaguars everywhere. Or we feel like we're going to take our production cars that aren't selling. Maybe that'd be bad for the brand. I'd have to think about it. But we want to go vertical and be in ride hailing. The other thing, I mean, they either got to do a sale or they've got to find a niche.

34:24So for example, I love Wheelie. That's a ride hailing service here in London. And it's basically, there's Uber, Uber Black, and then there's Uber Lux. And Wheelie is Uber, super lux. Beautiful brand new S-classes, suited driver, super clean. I mean, other cars look brand new. It's just a different level. And they've gone after that niche. And I'm sure they charge more and it's worth it and it's aspirational. And I hardly ever use Uber in London. Now I use Wheelie. And I thought, okay, what does Lyft offer? And Lyft does have a luxury offering that looks better than Uber. And that might not be the niche, but Lyft has to find a niche and be known as the ride hailing company that has a certain type of car or the ride hailing company that specializes in, you know, I don't know, helping people with special needs or I don't know what it is.

35:20So the dog friendly ride hailing, they're going to have to find a niche and own it and build out from there because all they are now is the subscale number two and every day they are losing share. Yeah, exactly. I mean, lifted$6 billion in revenue, a little less last year. Uber did$44 billion. They had almost$800 million in free cash flow. Uber had almost$7 billion. This is a true David and Goliath situation that has only been getting worse. But to your point, you know, Lyft trading at 0.9 times sales, its market cap is lower than its revenue. It's around$5 billion in market cap. It used to be around$25 billion in market cap.

36:05It certainly feels cheap from an acquisition perspective. You know, you make the point that they should be listening to offers. I just wonder if people or companies are making offers and if there are any companies you think would be best suited to make an offer to Lyft. Because it certainly looks like a really, really good acquisition target right now. The team put together some ideas. Merge with DoorDash. That wouldn't be a merger. That would be a sale because DoorDash has an$80 billion market cap, so they would buy them. DoorDash's stock is up 36%, so they kind of have cheap stock to go shopping with.

36:42And they're trading at eight times sales. So I don't know if it'd be accretive because I don't know how profitable or unprofitable Lyft is. Be acquired by Amazon. Be acquired by Google or Waymo. I'm not sure. I would bet, quite frankly, a lot of these potential acquirers. I don't doubt there's some people who think, we'll buy Lyft, but call us when it gets down to$2 billion. You know, because this company just is, it just continues to go down. And I think the only way they're going to prompt someone into buying is it gets so damn cheap or the banker calls and says, we do have a credible offer.

37:20Speak now or forever. Hold your peace. Because when a company is just consistently going down, there's no penalty to waiting because you believe, okay. And this isn't cheap. What's the market cap? About$5 billion. So they would claim we need a premium. So you've got to come up with$7 or$8 billion here. And if you're, let's say, say you're GM, right? And you think, oh, I'm going to get into this. Market cap of$47 billion, do you really want to take like a 15 % dilution to acquire a money-losing number two ride-hailing company? I mean, that's the kind of thing that they are now profitable now, but only just.

38:03Yeah. So breakeven. So Ford, Ford has a 39 billion. I mean, those guys can't do it. I used to think that was probably a good idea. I don't think they can do it. It would, it would have to be, I know what's going on here. They have a banker. They've reached out to all of these people. They're not dumb. They know, they know how challenging this is for them. They're ready. They're there. They've got their best dress on and they want to get someone to take them home from the dance or put a ring on it. And my guess is everyone's like, why wouldn't we wait another six months when it goes down another 15 %?

38:39So he has to find a strategy. He has to find some type of growth. Even if it's a smaller acquisition of$100 million to a billion, to say we have something that differentiates us or gives us a pulse here. We'll be right back after the break with a look at Gen Z unemployment. If you're enjoying the show so far, hit follow and leave us a review on Prof. G Markets.

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41:43We're back with Proftree Markets. Recent data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York reveals a concerning trend for college graduates. Securing a job is becoming increasingly difficult. Since September 2022, the unemployment rate for college grads has surged by 30%, outpacing the overall unemployment rate increase of 18 % for all other workers. Not only are more graduates struggling to find work, but hiring rates for jobs requiring a college degree have also slowed more than those for other roles. So, Scott, what do you make of this shift? And what advice would you give to college graduates who are trying to navigate this?

42:22To a certain extent, what came out of COVID was the jobs that had a little bit more purchase were either, you know, you understand AI or you slipstream into the right parts of growth economy, or you're a plumber. I think vocational jobs are actually doing quite well, right? AI can't give you a massage or install energy-efficient HVAC heaters. Supply is outpacing demand for computer scientists. Jobs posted for software development roles are down 30 % from pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, the number of students majoring in computer science has jumped 40 % in the past five years. Whenever something becomes conventional wisdom, it's no longer wisdom.

43:06And the conventional wisdom is just go into computer science, you're going to be fine. It does appear that this is kind of AI is sort of claiming its first victims and it's sort of information age workers that are expensive, but not that experienced yet. And the macro data kind of glosses over these struggles. U.S. job openings remain historically strong, 7.7 million open roles as of January 2025, led by education and health services, business and trade. And overall unemployment is at 4.1%. Spain's unemployment rate is 11, Canada's nearly seven. So our unemployment's still at historic lows. But the reason this gets a lot of attention is that we've spent 20 or 30 years just reporting on, I mean, literally for the last 20 or 30 years almost, almost except for some moments around recession, but in non-recessionary times, which we're in right now, if you got a college degree, you got a job.

44:02You might have to not take the job you wanted. You might have to take a job for less, but you got a job. Now there are generally, it appears to be people who are having real trouble finding anything. And so that makes the news. But if you pull back the lens, the job market is still pretty strong. I think there's pockets. I wouldn't want to be coming out of school right now looking to go into work and consulting. I got to think consultants are thinking, do we really need new people when we can make every person here 10, 20, 40 % more productive in the next three years using AI? So I think a lot of the traditional roles that undergrads from good institutions or even MBAs thought they could just slipstream into are, those are the jobs that are being hurt the most.

44:43But I wouldn't be surprised if they reconfigure, reestablish different curriculum tools, and these kids are fine. Or put another way, I still think it's a good idea to go to college. What I hope, and this is my rant about college, is that they start putting schools on the hook for some of that bad student debt such that they aren't as promiscuous and intoxicated around issuing debt to a kid who's going to get a philosophy degree and not be able to find work. So the kid you really feel for is the kid who borrowed$100 ,000 to get through school and gets It's how, I mean, some of the majors of my school at NYU are just so fucking ridiculous, you know.

45:23Gender studies and the, you know, the important discussion of the politics of styrofoam. It's just, they get to make up their own majors. I'm like, who would hire you at that? Anyway, so cheap credit, I think, has really hurt. And the promiscuity of issuing debt to some of these kids, I think, is setting them up for failure. But I still think these kids are going to be much better off than non-college educated kids. I think we should be clear on the scale of the problem. So, I mean, yes, the unemployment rate has increased by 30 % from the previous number, but the actual number among college-educated people is still not that high.

46:00It's 2.6%. So, like this, you know, college grads are fine right now, but I think what is more important is the trend. And the trend is that jobs that generally require a college degree are compared to other jobs in decline. So these are jobs like sales managers and administrators and analysts and programmers, the jobs that require, generally speaking, some level of skill and knowledge and experience and an understanding of how to organize and manage other people. Those are the jobs in decline. Why is that happening? I think you said it. It's technology. I mean, there's AI, there's generative AI.

46:46But even just the more primitive technologies like CRM management and data analytics platforms, the reality is that today, most cognitive tasks that we used to delegate to college-educated kids can now be delegated to a computer. And that does leave young people with a very important question, which I would like to pose to you, which is, what should we try to be good at? I mean, you brought up computer science. Exactly right. 10 years ago, everyone was telling us computers are taking over, so you need to understand how to program a computer. Half of us became coders. And what do you know, coding jobs are now down 30 % since before the pandemic.

47:27I mean, it's almost as if the computer science degree has turned into that gender studies philosophy degree you just made the comparison. It's like, people are going out there, they learned how to become a software engineer, and they're realizing, oh, wait, AI can do the job for me. So we're left with that question once again. What are we supposed to be good at? What are the kinds of skills that we should be learning? What should we be focusing on if we want to be productive and we want to get rich and we want to provide real economic value in this country? And so I would pose that question to you, Scott.

48:03What would be your advice in 2025? It's a really thoughtful question. I'm not sure I have a silver bullet here. What I would say is I would divide it or segment it into two cohorts, and that is 10 to maybe 20 percent, although half of kids think they know what they want to do, but they're just reading headlines. A minority but a significant group of kids are like, I am passionate about computer science or I'm just really good at it. I understand it. I am good at it. I pick up on it. I get A's in this course. I'm into it. Doesn't matter what the trends are. You go into that because if you're great at computer science, you're going to get a job.

48:44If you're just a standout programmer, even if they're firing computer systems engineers, if you're great at it, you'll figure out a way to stand out and find work. If you think, oh, I'm just fantastic at biology, boom, I could be great at this. go into it and ignore what the trends are because you don't know where the world is going to go. Now, for the rest who are thinking, I just want to be an economic animal, I think sort of the universal or the most athletic degrees are take a decent amount of, if you can, I think you really benefit from finance and economics courses. I think you absolutely benefit from the sciences courses because if you have an understanding, a preliminary understanding of chemistry or biology, you kind of understand a little bit of everything.

49:30that is the building blocks of life business mimics biology i mean even the the little kind of courses i took on astronomy or astrophysics you start to go wow that that you see that in everything um also i wish i'd taken more english uh communication is the gangster skill that i think will endure so your ability to write well if you can develop that skill you can more easily develop a skill around all communications mediums i think that you know one of the reasons i write so much is I want to be a great speaker. I want to be great on podcasts. And I think it all starts with your ability to write well.

50:08So I would wish I'd taken more English, more biology, an understanding of history, I think is really important. And also try and be, and this isn't a class, try and be as social as possible. Because A, it's an unbelievable opportunity to develop friendships and relationships. And at Google, when they put out a job opening, they get 200 CVs in minutes and they shut it down. And then they invite in 20 people. And 70 % of the time, the person who gets the job is someone who has a friend at the firm that is advocating for them. And so what is the easiest way or the likely the way you're going to improve your odds the most of having, getting a job is having a lot of friends.

50:56How did you get job, Ed. You had a best friend whose mom knew me and they love you. Literally, Joanna Coles called me and said, you'd be stupid not to hire this kid. That's what she said. I think her words were, I am not getting off this phone until you commit, until you promise. I really owe my life to Joanna Coles. That you are hiring my son's friend, Ed Elson. I'm like, and I said, well, what does he want to do? She's like, it doesn't matter, you fool.

51:31What a legend. Yeah, but it works, right? So I get the sense, you know, I mean, you've got a lot of flaws, but I get the sense. I get the sense you have really good relationships. You take your friendship seriously. And that's how you got this job, is you got someone in your life who just really cares for you and basically told his mom, help Ed get a job. Or Ed said he knows this guy or likes this guy. Can you call him? I heard you know him. You want to get a job? You got to be good. Learn the basics. I like the sciences. I like communication and storytelling. But the way you get a great job and the way you change the trajectory of your professional career is relationships.

52:13And while you're in college, it is a great opportunity to establish a lot of really great, deep, meaningful relationships. It's so interesting because a lot of the skills that you mentioned there are kind of the skills that you're supposed to be accumulating from a liberal arts education. 100%. And this is the, I mean, liberal arts degrees have been in decline and people have been saying, you know, what's the point of these liberal arts degrees? But it's starting to feel that now that we've almost over-indexed so hard on the hard sciences and on the computer sciences, that suddenly the economy is seeming to kind of reshift and we're starting to see more emphasis on the soft skills, the ability to communicate, to tell a story, to have a strong sense of history.

52:58I mean, maybe I'm being biased because I got a liberal arts education. But there was this interesting quote by this guy, Amjad Massad, who is the CEO of Replit, which is this big software company. And he was talking about this new trend of vibe coding. And this is this trend that is becoming very big in Silicon Valley, where engineers are basically just prompting AI to build the code for them. And you now have very reputable, even computer science professors who are teaching people how to vibe code because they recognize this might be the future of coding. You don't need to have a really perfect understanding of computer science.

53:39You can basically use AI to just push the ball down the line. And he was making the case for vibe coding, this guy, Amjad Massad. And he even said that he doesn't think people should be learning to code anymore. In the up case, like what Dario just said recently, all code will be AI generated. I assume this optimization path we're on where agents are going to get better and better and better, the answer would be different. The answer would be no. It would be a waste of time to learn how to code. I would say learn how to think. Learn how to break down problems. learn how to communicate clearly, as you would with humans, but also with machines.

54:23That to me is like a glowing endorsement of liberal arts. But I'm curious to get your take. The best programmers understand logic, and they're almost like internal construction managers. They're great project managers. And also, someone's going to have to give these LLM prompts and build the system. So there's still going to be a need for them. It's just like anything else that gets digitized. When technology comes into a sector, it usually takes the top 10 % and they earn three times as much. And the bottom 90 make less or aren't there. And I think that's happening in that field.

55:01The resonance here is on day after tomorrow, I'm headed to the U.S. with my oldest son for a college tour. and we've been thinking about, you know, there's, there's a opportunity set of a hundred colleges and we're going to seven of them in five days. And we've been thinking a lot about it. And I said, all right, what are your criteria? And he's like, you know, I want a place with a great biology department. He's, that's what he came up with because he's really interested in biology and he had some real aptitude for it. And he said, what are your criteria? I'm like, I just want, You know, a small number of things.

55:35I want you to go somewhere where I think you're just going to have an amazing time. Because I had an amazing time in college. And if I could give my kids anything, I just want them to have the same amazing time I had. I want you to learn about yourself. I want you to learn about others. I would love for you to acquire some skills, specifically some skills around storytelling, communication. But more than anything, more than anything, what I would hope for you is that you experience, enjoy, endure a ton of relationships. I just want you at basketball games, in classes with 400 people, on campus all day long, tutoring people, getting tutored, hanging out, drinking with friends, playing ultimate Frisbee, playing intramural sports.

56:22I just want you bumping off people all day long and creating just a raft of relationships and friendships. That's what I'm looking for. And so we're going to all these kind of land-grant schools that are big public schools with football teams and intramurals and fraternities and sororities. I don't know if we'll do that, but tons of student clubs where they just feel like, quite frankly, like college. And I think a lot of parents feel this way. I think a lot of, if you've looked at the applications trends, the Southern schools are booming. And quite frankly, it's like how college-y and how fun do they sound?

57:04We want our kid to go have fun. Like schools like Wake Forest are booming. Their applications are booming. SMU, Vanderbilt is now more difficult to get into than many Ivy League colleges because a lot of parents and kids have said, I want my kid to have a college experience, full stop. I mean, if I were to summarize your advice there, it's to get as good an understanding as possible of other people. And yourself. Right. And the only way that you could do that is through meeting other people and establishing relationships with them. And I do think that is actually great advice because it makes you nimble in any situation economically.

57:42I mean, the biggest realization for me coming out of college was I thought these companies that I heard about were these big sort of amorphous conglomerate brands that have all these rules and definitions for, you know, these are the skills that you must learn and this is the type of person you must be. In fact, it's all just groups of people. And your ability to get hired is, as you say, a function of whether the person in charge of the hiring decision likes you and wants to work with you. And that was honestly a really eye-opening experience for me is realizing that life and work is literally just interacting with people.

58:20So if you can be really good at that, then I think you'll be fine. That's the key. It's like anything else. You got to be good. Being intelligent, being hardworking, that's table stakes in this economy. The differentiator is the depth and number of relationships you have. Let's take a look at the week ahead. We'll see the unemployment rate for March and U.S. reciprocal tariffs are set to go into effect Tuesday on what Trump is calling Liberation Day. Scott, any predictions from you? It's not so much as a prediction, but an observation. We have this clown car called the cabinet right now. And I just think this is going to start to hit the economy.

59:03Strategy is two questions or one key question. What can we do that's really hard? And the biggest mistake people make in strategy is that they think they're punching a speed bag and people aren't going to punch back. And every nation we have levied tariffs against, they have levied reciprocal tariffs. They have punched back. And some are getting really smart. EU and Canada, I love this, have decided to pick products where they're going to put especially onerous disproportionate tariffs on products that originate from red states. And the whole world is sort of deciding now, including our allies, that they have this common enemy called this clown fucking car called the United States.

59:42And there's just no way that that doesn't begin to hit our economy. And it's dangerous to make predictions about the economy. I just don't see there's any way that this doesn't impact us in the back half of the year. I think he has dug himself too deep. And even if he were to say, tariffs are off, just kidding, nations are reconfiguring their supply chain and it's going to start to show up in Q3 and Q4 numbers. in some, I'll just say, I think we're headed for recession in back half of the year. This episode was produced by Claire Miller and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our associate producer is Alison Weiss.

1:00:22Mia Silverio is our research lead. Isabella Kinsel is our research associate. Drew Burrows is our technical director. And Catherine Dillon is our executive producer. Thank you for listening to Prof G Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network. Join us for a fresh take on markets on Thursday.

1:00:46you help me in kind reunion as the world turns and the dark lies in love

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