Prof G Markets: Global Pushback on Tariffs + Can the FTC Beat Meta?

27:03I mean, what we'd see in the yield, we wouldn't be at four and a half percent. We'd be hitting five, six, probably seven percent. I mean, it would totally eviscerate our credibility in the debt markets. So I have a friend who lives in London who has a company doing independent research on media and technology. And his name is Richard Kramer. He runs this niche, very high quality research firm. I think it's called Aret. I don't know if it's like some name that's hard to pronounce. Anyways, he sent me an email saying the following, did you see the B of A survey? Global fund managers' interest in investing in U.S.

27:41is at a 30-year low. So what does that mean? It means we're going to have to raise the interest rates we pay for money to come in. That's going to be inflationary.

27:57I'm trying to work through all the second order effects here. Can you imagine what's going to happen to the earnings of export and import dependent companies? We haven't even seen the earnings yet. And it's going to be in a few months from now. Like we haven't even been able to price any of this in yet properly. Yeah. They don't know what to order. They don't have to stop all shipments. They can't just flip a switch and massively reconfigure their supply chain and start getting, you know, start getting outdoor furniture from overnight from Chile as opposed to China. It's just, I got to think there's, you're going to hear the term uncertainty and impact from tariffs in almost, it's going to be a more common used phrase than AI in earnings calls over the next three months.

28:42Everyone's going to be like, they'll blame, and some of it will be untrue. Some of it just becomes not performing well, but they'll blame everything. It is going to be, literally everyone's going to blame everything on this. We'll be right back after the break with a look at how the world is pushing back on tariffs. If you're enjoying the show so far, be sure to give the Prof G Markets feed a follow wherever you get your podcasts.

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30:56We're back with Prof G Markets. The trade war is officially on, and Trump's strategy for the US is clear. Shock and awe tariffs. But other countries aren't sitting still. They're responding with strategic moves of their own. China is leading the economic pushback. China's central bank told state-owned banks to cut their US dollar purchases. It also ordered its airlines to stop deliveries of Boeing jets, and they curbed their rare earth exports to the US. But it's not just China. Canada is starting to boycott US goods, such as American whiskey. Brazil passed a bill to impose their own tariff countermeasures.

31:35And in Denmark, the largest grocer in the country is putting Black Star labels on European products to encourage a boycott of American products. So, Scott, the world appears to be coalescing against a common enemy here in the U.S. Any thoughts on how this might all play out and what we as investors should do about it? I mean, there's just some of the most basics of strategy. if you're five percent of the world's economy or world's population but you have a quarter of its economic growth or a quarter of its prosperity you are highly levered to the upside and some of that comes from this most basic of advantages as a species you have leveraged the most basic species and that is cooperation and generally speaking the u.s believes in free trade We make outstanding products.

32:32So we say to people, okay, well, for the most part, we'll compete and we win on a regular basis. And to declare war on everyone all at once is just, okay, that absolutely makes no sense. In addition, his second really big strategic error was underestimating the competition. While we have issued tariffs based on some junior economic analysts and fed it into chat GPT, and he's claimed that 75 nations are lining up to talk to us, we don't have in this administration, we don't have the human capital to the brainpower to even begin those conversations distinct to the fact it's a lie and all of these nations are lining up to exit relationships.

33:17with the U.S. What they're doing is they're having conversations with each other. There are more. It's really interesting. Donald Trump's actions are actually going to inspire, in my opinion, some growth over the medium and long term, because I think every I think he is going to say, all right, enough of the shit. The best way to fight back is for us to put our shit aside and deregulate and to bring down trade barriers. You're just going to see all these strange bedfellows to say, hey, Brazil, we're Denmark. Why don't we lower all of our trade barriers and you know, you buy more, I don't know, more cobbler shoes and we buy more steak or whatever.

33:52I don't know what it is that Denmark, what did the Danish produce? Oh, is that right? Is that where Nova Nordisk is? Yep. Oh, there you go. But I mean, just as an example here, I mean, we're seeing, we're beginning to see that in very niche categories. For example, Cote d 'Ivoire, which produces 40 % of the world's cocoa, they're now throttling their prices on the US and now forming a partnership with the EU. So, I mean, just small examples like that where you have little nations that are kind of like, wait, what are these tariffs and why are you trying to hurt us? And the natural response is to go find allies somewhere else.

34:34But then you look at China's actions, which are probably the most dangerous to our economy. I mean, I mentioned that boycott of Boeing jets. I mean, China has historically accounted for a quarter of Boeing sales. Our biggest exporter by dollar by Boeing. Largest exporter. They're also curbing these rare earth minerals. And these are the materials we use to create jets, to create satellites, to create batteries. and they control 90 % of the global production supply of rare earth minerals. And it does sort of beg the question, like, can we actually win this? I mean, even if China is our enemy, even if we do want a trade war, if we decide that's something we actually want, are we actually going to win that?

35:28Especially if they start teaming up with everyone else. Is this like even a winnable war? We're a services economy. We talk about Boeing and big manufacturers and Jack Daniels. At some point, it's going to jump the shark. And the biggest IPOs in the world of companies not headquartered in the U.S., they're going to say, we're not using Goldman or JP Morgan or Morgan Stanley. We're going to go with Deutsche Bank. HSBC. Yeah, we're going to go with other investment banks. We don't need this bullshit. And by the way, David Solomon and Jamie Dimon, grow a fucking pair. Say something for God's sakes.

36:02And that's the opportunity. David Solomon, who I know, if he just came out and said, this is just fucking insane, I think he would get a torrent of this. their best business, the business they've all tried to evolve is wealth management because it's much more predictable. They can produce between 50 and 100 basis points a year on AUM from wealthy people by managing their taxes, being thoughtful. And by the way, I know firsthand they do a great job. They do a great job. And it's a better business because it's not subject to all these fluctuations from the market. If they want more AUM, they should come out and say, this is bullshit.

36:37Canada is our friends. The EU is, they are our friends. These are our allies. You know what's going to happen? A bunch of really super wealthy people are going to say, oh my God, I'd like to invest in a company run by a guy who has fucking testicles. There is such a huge opportunity for one of these guys to stand up and say, enough is enough and couch it as we have wonderful relations with companies and people in Europe. J.P. Morgan does a huge amount of business in Europe and in Asia. And they are going to see Trump full of bluster and anger and threatened to weaponize the DOJ against him. And then like a cat chasing a fucking red dot, he'll go on to the next thing.

37:20And that company is going to get more business over the next 12 or 24 months. Because you know what, Ed, the North remembers. The North remembers. And right now the North is everyone else. They will remember who actually stood up to this shit. There is never, it's never the wrong time to do the right thing. Just on that point that we're sort of declaring war on everyone else and what a ridiculous idea that is. This reminds me, I've been thinking about this amazing joke by one of my favorite comedians, Norm MacDonald, where he's talking about the German strategy in World War I and in World War II.

38:02There is one country that worries me, though. Not Iraq, not Iran, not North Korea. The only country that really worries me is the country of Germany. I don't know if you guys are history buffs or not, but...

38:21In the early part of the previous century, Germany decided to go to war. And who did they go to war with? The world. It had never been tried before. And so you figure that would take about five seconds for the world to win, but no, it was actually close.

38:50Then about 30 years pass, and Germany decides again to go to war, and again it chooses as its enemy the world. Yeah, I just, I love that clip. Yeah, and now Germany's the good guys. But, I mean, is that not what's happening in America right now? We have chosen the world, as no one puts it, as our enemy? Yeah, take on everyone all at once, including universities. I mean, they're taking on everywhere. Who is he not at war with right now? Let me think. Universities, every foreign nation. I mean, it's just, okay, who's next? What's next? we're all kind of waiting for we're waiting for one of two things we're waiting for it to get much much worse or we're waiting for someone to show up there i don't i don't think i've ever seen a vacuum of leadership like this i don't the democrats seem neutered there's no one who's emerged i'm i did a podcast i was on governor newsom's podcast yesterday or two days ago oh Oh, wow.

39:57And I basically said, I think someone should announce they're running for president and start. If someone announced today they were running for president, they'd be the leader of the Democratic Party and they would be on TV every day making, hitting a series of softballs out of the park, just responding to all this ridiculous shit. They need a new guy. Are you going to do it? Yeah, that's right. A chicken in every pot of Cialis in every cupboard. It's slowly, I mean, this is how movements start. It starts as a meme. It's sort of like, that would be kind of funny. But I'm increasingly hearing calls to Scott Galloway for president.

40:36I think we need a non-ironic actual response from you on this question right now. Would you ever actually consider running for president? I have considered it. I had a company and some individuals call me and say, if you put up 10 million, we'll put up 10 million. And you won't, you're not running for president, you're running for change. And that it's not about winning. It's about shaping the messaging and having an influence on America. The same way Andrew Yang made UBI more palatable in the redistribution of income. I mean, that was Andrew's real victory here. And I'm a narcissist. I have all the qualities to be president.

41:11I'm white, I'm male, and I'm a narcissist and I'm rich. So those are the primary considerations. The other thing though is you have to be, you have to like people. I don't have that. You would not be good at the meet and greets. I agree with you. And just to be very honest, I'm 60 and the idea of lightning striking and I end up probably not winning, but maybe end up with, you know, get two or three percent, which is enough to leverage myself into some sort of cabinet role. I want to hang out with my wife and kids and do amazing things and go to F1 and be irresponsible when I want to be irresponsible.

41:51And I don't, I, the reality is I don't feel that same sense of patriotism. If I was more patriotic, I think I would decide to give up eight years and try and do something more meaningful. But I've also decided, I think, Ed, I think the two of us right now, especially you, because you're younger and you're kind of coming into your sweet spot. I think we can have a lot of impact from outside the tent. And that is be unbridled, try and entertain, try and educate, and try and help get great leaders elected. I think there's a lot of really good people who'd be a lot more qualified and enjoyed a lot more than me.

42:26And that when I really ask myself, why am I receptive to calls to run for office? It's too much of my ego and my narcissism and not enough of a vision and a calling to help the country. And that means I shouldn't run. But what we can do is we can absolutely take our time, treasure, and talent to help some of the amazing people who are out there and see what man or woman rises to the moment and get behind them. What about if you got offered a position, like a cabinet position? Would you take, like, sort of go the Howard Lutnick route? Would you take Commerce Secretary, something like that? I just think there's so many people who would be so much better than me.

43:06Did you ever meet Gina Riomondo, the former head of commerce? She was just so good, so intelligent. I just think there's so much. Michael Bennett should be secretary of education. Vivek Murthy would be an outstanding head of HHS. I just think there's so many incredible people. I think our job is to prop those people up. So I think people are mistaking some fame and some ability to articulate ideas over actual operational excellence. So I think I'm self-aware enough to know that, okay, how could, if you're really loyal to the country, if you really want to see America be America again, then part of that is saying, how can I be most effective?

43:48And so, no, I think our job, Ed, I'm going to run you for something such that I can get you to help me engage in massive tax avoidance when I'm 80 and just doing nothing but counting my pennies and yelling at people. I'll get you to become a senator. But until then, the two of us and the good people that here at Prop G are going to help great Americans get elected and make America, America again. I love that. We'll be right back with a look at the Meta Antitrust Trial. If you're enjoying the show so far, hit follow and leave us a review on the Prop G Markets feed.

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47:09We're back with Prof G Markets. After nearly six years of investigation, the Meta antitrust trial is finally underway. The case is focused on whether Meta's acquisitions of Instagram and WhatsApp violated competition laws. Mark Zuckerberg has already taken the stand. Potential upcoming witnesses include former COO Sheryl Sandberg, ex-CTO Mike Schrupfer, and executives from rival social media platforms. The trial is expected to last up to two months. I'll just kick this off and highlight what's at stake here for Meta. You know, if the FTC wins this case, and they could, it would be a huge deal for the company and for big tech at large.

47:50We are increasingly seeing more momentum on the antitrust front. Google, in fact, there was just a judge just ruled that Google was operating a monopoly on the ad market and the server market. And that's the second time that's happened in less than a year. Of course, we covered back in August when Judge Meta in Washington, he declared that Google was a monopoly in the search market. So this is becoming a trend. Now, what would happen to Meta if the FTC won? The most likely remedy that people are talking about is that Meta would have to sell WhatsApp and they'd also have to sell Instagram. And that is a huge deal because WhatsApp is one of their most popular products.

48:34They have almost 3 billion users. But also, Instagram now makes up more than half of Meta's ad revenue. It was 50.4 % coming from Instagram ads in 2025. So this would essentially dismantle the world's largest social media company. So, Scott, first, just any initial reactions on what's happening with the Meta antitrust trial and perhaps what's happening with antitrust at large with this new ruling on Google? The two greatest tax cuts in the modern economy would be the following. Well, okay, the third. Number one would be the ass clown gets reined in somehow. But distinct to that, one, if the Chinese and the American leadership were to kiss and make up, they have the ultimate supply chain of things we don't want to produce at that cost.

49:24We have IP and an incredible consumption economy and innovation. It would lower everyone's costs in the world by 10 to 20 percent. The second biggest oxygenation of the economy would be if we broke up big tech. and that is because of the monopoly power they've established. One firm owns 50 % or controls 50 % of e-commerce, Amazon. One firm, 90 % of search, Google. One firm, 70 % of all social media, Meta. They're able to extract monopoly rents, whether it's the percentage they charge third-party retailers on their platform, whether it's search words, whatever it is. And the rents, and I've always said this, the greatest rents they're charging are non-economic.

50:06Think about the rents, and you don't know this because you don't have kids. The rents that Metta has raised on parents in the form of stress and strain because they're so powerful and they have so much data and they have such mendacious leadership. And we allow them to get away with these things because of the idolatry of the dollar and this worship of technology. If you took those four companies and broke them into 11 or 12, who wins? Society wins because they're too powerful and they've made our discourse more coarse and they haven't been able to resist radicalizing young men on YouTube or depressing young girls on meta.

50:48Society wins. The rents go down. Shareholders win. Can you imagine Instagram trades or meta trades at about 7.7 times revenue? Can you imagine what an independent Instagram would trade at? A pure play Instagram? That company would trade at 15 to 20 times revenue. WhatsApp, instead of being a body bag of data to inform the core dying platform of Facebook, they would try and turn it into what it is, a truly the largest global telco. And they'd start monetizing it. These companies, independent of one of each other, would create more competition, more shareholder value, more tax revenue, because I believe they'd be more profitable.

51:29they would increase wages because there'd be more companies trying to rent human labor. I mean, if you want to be in social media and make a shit ton of money, what, are you going to go to Pinterest? No, you go to Meta. Pinterest basically gets everyone that Meta doesn't. You know, what, you're going to go to Snap? I think those two firms are in business because Meta has made the conscious decision not to put them out of business so they can pretend they have competition. I'm serious. I think somebody came in and said, oh, we can put pinterest out of business in six months we're going to launch we're going to launch insta boards and zuckerberg said no talk to nick clegg or whoever else has their finger on the pulse of dc and goes no that they're shitty their business model sucks and it gives people the illusion we have actual competition just don't just let them have their little four or five billion dollars a year and their eight billion dollar market caps meanwhile we have a trillion dollar market cap Just let them survive to create the illusion of competition.

52:26The only people that lose in a breakup, it's almost impossible to find a breakup that didn't end up working for everybody. The only people that lose are the person who controls the voting shares, the super shares, who's decided they want to sit on the iron throne of all seven realms, not just Westeros. Yeah, a lot there. I mean, what would it take for them to win the case? One, they need to prove that Meta suppressed the competition via these acquisitions. And the emails there are incredible. And I'll go over a few of them in a second. And two, they also need to prove that Meta is indeed a monopoly.

53:04And those are two different arguments they need to prove. So on the first argument, the case is incredibly strong. And it's all because of these emails that they found from Zuckerberg and Sandberg and all these other executives. I'm just going to read off some of them. to you right now. So Mark Zuckerberg in 2012, quote, Instagram and PATH are nascent, but the network's established. The brands are already meaningful. And if they grow to a large scale, they could be very disruptive to us. From an internal executive, quote, in the time it has taken us to get our act together on this, Instagram has become a large and viable competitor to us, which will increasingly be the future of photos.

53:39Sheryl Sandberg, 2012, quote, Instagram was growing so much faster than us that we had to buy them for$1 billion. And then this is the best one. Mark Zuckerberg in 2008, in regards to the Instagram acquisition, he says, quote, it is better to buy than to compete. And that is basically case closed right there. That is the FTC's smoking gun, is that email from Zuckerberg in 2008. So they can definitely prove that Meta was suppressing the competition by just buying up these other companies. The trouble is proving whether or not Meta is actually a monopoly. And that is a harder argument to make because, you know, as you mentioned, there are all these other platforms now.

54:25There's TikTok, there's Snapchat, there's Pinterest, there's YouTube, even iMessage, which is technically competing with WhatsApp. And Meta shared this number. They shared that 20 % of the total time spent on social media platforms today, 20 % is accounted for by Meta. So at 20%, it is definitely harder to argue that this is a monopoly. And I think if the FTC loses this case, it's gonna be on that front. They're gonna be able to prove very fair and square. Yes, Meta suppressed the competition by buying these companies, but did they also do that and successfully become a monopoly? And that's going to be a little bit harder to prove.

55:09And one final point here. I just want to quickly highlight this incredible article in the Wall Street Journal that takes you through the negotiations between Andrew Ferguson at the FTC and Mark Zuckerberg. So the FTC actually offered to settle this case with Meta for$30 billion. But after Trump appointed this new guy, Andrew Ferguson, as the new chair of the FTC, Mark Zuckerberg called him and he gave him a counteroffer. And Mark Zuckerberg's counteroffer was$450 million. So a 99 % discount on the original settlement offer. And apparently on that call, Mark Zuckerberg was very confident that Trump was going to back him up.

55:56You know, he had just traveled to Mar-a-Lago multiple times. He just donated a million dollars to the inauguration fund. He went to the inauguration. He, as you point out, he appointed this former Trump advisor to the Meta board, Dana White. He just done this 180 on the content moderation policy. I mean, he had his full-on MAGA rebrand. And then Andrew Ferguson, they have the conversation, and he says no. So then Zuckerberg goes to the White House and he starts pleading with Trump to drop the case. And Trump was apparently considering it, but it wasn't until April 8th when both Andrew Ferguson of the FTC and Gail Slater of the DOJ, they both go to Trump and they say, no, Mr.

56:41President, you have to let this trial go through. And Trump was convinced. He gave them his blessing. And now here we are. Zuckerberg is back in court, back in the suit and tie. And it looks as if Meta may be broken up at this point. So it's an amazing story of Zuckerberg's failed attempts at kissing the president's arse. But it's also an amazing story of strength from Ferguson, from Gail Slater, who, as we have said on this podcast before, are actually highly competent litigators, highly competent regulators. And I think if there's anything that Trump has gotten right in this administration, it would be hiring those two to run the FTC and the DOJ, because they are proving that they are not to be fucked with.

57:28You know, and we'll call balls and strikes. So far, I think we should commend the president on sticking to his guns here. The thing that's sad is that Mark Zuckerberg, and I've said Mark and Sheryl, I think there's few people you could point to that have made more money while doing more damage to America than Mark Zuckerberg or Sheryl Sandberg. but there's just no getting around it. They're both incredibly talented executives. And I would argue that Zuckerberg is probably the really probably one of the business geniuses of the last 50 years. But when one of the most brilliant business minds has decided and is convinced that he can buy his way out of regulation by giving money to the Trump administration and traveling there, what does that say about our nation?

58:12And by the way, he still may be right. I will see. I hope the president sticks to his guns here. But the brightest business mind, you know, in a generation puts a bunch of hardcore MAGA people on his board, shows up at the inauguration, gives money and says, OK, regardless of my violating laws, regardless of the fact I suppress competition, regardless of the fact that I'm levying huge taxes every day emotionally and mentally on our youth and on their parents, I think I can buy my way out of this in today's America. I hope he's wrong. I hope he's wrong. Let's take a look at the week ahead. We'll see earnings from Tesla, from SAP, and Alphabet.

58:56Scott, do you have any predictions? Well, it goes back to what we were saying. I think there's an enormous opportunity, and I do think the worm has turned. I mean, let me save you. At business school, we have ethics, we have leadership, and we have sustainability courses. And they each cost, every course costs$7 ,000. Let me save you$21 ,000. Ethics. Think about right and wrong. Think about what you're doing might be wrong or right. Like there is a right and a wrong. Okay, that's the ethics course. Leadership. Do the right thing even when it's hard. Boom, you're done with leadership. And the sustainability.

59:34Thinking about doing the right thing, doing the right thing when it's really hard, you might make money out of it. You might actually make money out of it. Boom, you're done. I just saved you$21 ,000. My prediction is the following. I think there's such an enormous vacuum for leadership here that someone is going to step into it and reap enormous rewards, both in terms of their status, their leadership, what goes on their tombstone, and also shareholder value. I just think there's so many people lining up against this guy. He's losing his power. A hundred third graders can line up against a big, angry sixth grader.

1:00:09If they're unified, and this guy has given us reason to be unified. Someone is going to step into the void of leadership here. And the person I'm reminded of, or the situation, is a gentleman named Martin Niemöller. And Martin is credited with this fantastic quote that loosely is reduced to first they came for. He was a prominent Lutheran pastor in Germany in the 20s and 30s. He was actually very kind of pro-Nazi and supported radically right-wing political movements. After Hitler came to power in 1933, however, Niemöller became an outspoken critic of Hitler's interference in the Protestant church.

1:00:49He spent the last eight years of Nazi rule in prisons and concentration camps, and he's best remembered for his post-war statement, which begins, first, they came for the socialists, and I did not speak out because I was not a socialist. Then they came for the trade unionists, and I did not speak out because I was not a trade unionist. Then they came for the Jews, and I did not speak out because I was not a Jew. Then they came for me, and there was no one left to speak for me. And that is so powerful. And I think that when on a very crude and economic level, when you don't speak out on behalf of our wonderful allies and other companies and speak out on behalf of your own company, just wait, folks.

1:01:39In the long run, it's just really bad for you not speaking out. And even on a more substantive level, when we allow people to be rounded up because they have the wrong tattoo or because they're illegal, undocumented workers and send them to a hellscape prison, just be careful when the knock comes on your door. This is a threat to everybody. And so I'm hopeful. I think America has a ton of great leaders. And I think this has gotten so bad. God, my prediction is in the next one, two, four weeks, we're going to see some prominent leaders. And we can't guess that who knows where they come from, right?

1:02:19This Harvard president has shown real leadership. But I think that there's going to be several people step into this void of leadership and realize that I need to speak up.

1:02:32This episode was produced by Claire Miller and engineered by Benjamin Spencer. Our associate producer is Alison Weiss. Mia Silverio is our research lead. Isabella Kinsel is our research associate. Dan Shallan is our intern. Drew Burrows is our technical director. And Catherine Dillon is our executive producer. Thank you for listening to Prof G Markets from the Vox Media Podcast Network. Join us on Thursday for our conversation with Ryan Peterson, only on Prof G Markets.

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