Raging Moderates: Is Israel the Superpower of the Middle East?

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1:13Mmm. Or this tea time you. Or even this tea time you. So did you hear about Dave? Or even tea time, tea time, tea time you. Mmm. So update on Dave. It's up to you. We'll take the laundry. Rinse. It's time to be great. Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Scott Galloway. And I'm Jessica Tarlov. Jessica, how are you? I mean, let's talk about you. You're in France. Oh, you know me. I don't like to talk about me. Yes, I'm on the closet at Cannes Lions, where we try to decide which is the best Pepsi ad that no one is going to watch. Or as I call it, the We're Still Relevant, desperate Yelp for relevance as American companies invade the beaches of France for the second time in order to push back against the Axis powers of traditional media.

2:07I'm taking this metaphor too far. You would love it here. We should come here together. Well, we should go next year. I have gone a few times in my old job, and it's always less glam than you expect it to be because you're in meetings from like 8 to 10 p.m., and then maybe you get in to see Lil Jon or something like that afterwards. But it's tightly scheduled. I hope you're having more fun than I did when I went. So just a little FYI, when you come with daddy, it's going to be glam, glam central. All right. Especially you, everyone that will stop you, you're famous now, everyone will stop you for selfies and be like, oh, thank God you're there on the five.

2:44And you're saying everyone would love you here because, you know, they're French, so they're total, they're total lefties. You would really enjoy it here. All right. Well, next summer. You're in. We'll be in that palm tree room together. You're in. All right. In In today's episode of Raging Moderates, we're discussing the new unfolding war between Israel and Iran under Trump's watch and the race to become New York City's next mayor. All right. Ten years ago, Donald Trump descended that golden escalator and launched what many thought would be a fleeting campaign. God, he showed us, didn't he? A decade later, he's not only reshaped American politics, he's at the center of a chaotic week marked by protest, violence and a growing war overseas.

3:24As Trump flexed his power with a military parade, ordered mass deportations in Democratic cities, millions took to the streets in the No Kings protest across the country. Meanwhile, violence erupted in Minnesota, where a gunman killed two Democratic lawmakers and had a hit list of others. And overseas, a new war is unfolding between Israel and Iran. Now five days in, with rising civilian casualties and attacks on critical infrastructure, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu claims that strikes have severely set back around Iran's nuclear program, though we offer no specifics. Trump, for his part, warned Iranians on social media to evacuate Tehran and abruptly cut his time at the G7 summit short to return to the U.S.

4:04and manage a crisis. He reportedly rejected an Israeli proposal to assassinate Iran's supreme leader, but hasn't ruled out U.S. involvement in the conflict. All of this is unfolding as world leaders, especially from the EU, urged him to cool global tensions and use his influence to help broker peace in both the Middle East and Ukraine. Jess, a lot to get to here. Where do you want to start? You're always so good with actual polls and data. Where do you want to start here? I guess we should maybe start with perhaps heading to World War III, which is not what I think is going to happen. But it seems like it is the big storyline.

4:40And I imagine people are discussing it there as well. I want to get to some data that I think is interesting, but kind of top line when I saw and I understand that Trump puts a lot out on truth social that is meaningless. But when he said everybody evacuate Tehran, I stopped and I looked at it and thought if this is the one truth social post that's true, we're in a world of trouble. And it's been fascinating to follow this over the last five days. And we're recording this on Tuesday. It'll come out on Wednesday. And to try to understand the backroom dealings that went on between Bibi and Trump and Rubio.

5:24So, you know, Trump, he does want a deal. And now he's saying, I don't just want a ceasefire. I want an end to their program. And we know that a peace prize is on his mind constantly. And if he does get rid of the Iranian nuclear program beyond just even getting a deal that directly mirrors what we had in 2015, so he really shouldn't have ripped that up, then I think it should strongly be considered by the committee. But you're watching, to my mind, Bibi get to do 99 percent of what he wants to, save for taking out the supreme leader. It seems like Israel is really firmly in control of what's going on here.

6:02And I understand that Trump and Whitcoff had said you have 60 days to take the deal. And on the 61st day is when they started carrying out Operation Rising Lion. But you can tell that the defenses that the administration are giving, like Pete Hegseth was on with Jesse Waters last night, and he said, you know, this is Israel's self-defense and this is what peace through strength looks like. So, yes, it is self-defense in that Iran wants to eradicate Israel from the earth. But this was a preemptive strike and Bibi has admitted as much. And so they're trying to find the right language to describe the fact that Bibi Netanyahu is the one who's in charge.

6:42But that's how I see it. What are your thoughts? Look, I think there is a bad piece and I think the world is safer today than it was on Thursday. I mean, if you look at ice raids of Home Depot in Westlake, California, that's upsetting. and it's meaningful. I think the violence in Minnesota against two very decent lawmakers, that's meaningful. I think what's happened in Iran is profound. I think that the Middle East power dynamic has been reshaped in the last 24 months. Essentially, Iran was seen as the superpower supporting its proxies, Hamas, the Houthis, Hezbollah. And in the last 18 months, the IDF and the superior intelligence and military war machine of Israel has, I think, just cemented Israel as the superpower in the Middle East.

7:31And I would argue that effectively Israel and specifically the IDF and also the Ukrainian army continue to do the West's dirty hard work through courage and excellence. You know, I just have a difficult time. I was so infuriated, Jess. I listened to The Daily, which I love, and they made it sound as if we were on the brink of a peace deal or a de-escalation of the nuclear program of Iran and that Israel had somehow thrown it into chaos and that oil prices were spiking and consumers were going to be paying$7 a gallon for gasoline in America and that Israel had ruined chances of peace. And I just find that such extraordinary bullshit.

8:13The Atomic International Agency just last week issued a statement that all evidence pointed to the following. Iran was engaged in massive deception and was barreling towards enrichment of uranium with the sole motive of getting to a bomb. And when you have a clock in the middle of Tehran counting down the eradication of Israel, and when you say, death to Israel as Americans say amen, in my view, this is a good war. And Israel has effectively taken out their proxies, Hamas, Houthis, Hezbollah, and now has basically overrun Iranian airspace. The skies of Iran belong to Israel right now. And what was most impressive about this operation, which was reportedly years in the making, was not only does Israel control the skies, Israel clearly controls the ground.

9:06I mean, Jess, I don't know if you saw this, but there were several, very, the most senior military leaders. I mean, the equivalent would be if the American Joint Chiefs of Staff, the head of the Navy, the head of the army and the top four or five stellar generals were all murdered or killed within minutes of each other such that there was no one available to provide an order to fire surface to air missiles. And then they took out two or three of the top scientists. This was just it's clear that whoever you are in Iran, if Israel gives the Mossad to take you out, you're gone. And so I got to think if you're a mid-level officer in the IRGC, you're thinking, OK, what did I sign up for here?

9:52Because clearly their security apparatus has been totally, totally penetrated. Now, along those lines, what was also interesting was who did they not kill? They did not kill Khomeini. They did not take out serious oil infrastructure. And they could have. It's clear no one is out of their reach right now. So I see this as essentially a very hopeful sign and that the world is safer. I just have trouble. I have trouble listening to any argument that Iran with a nuclear weapon was better for the world. And the fulcrum of the decision comes down to the risk of going to war with Iran. Anytime there's a war in the Middle East, there are unintended consequences.

10:33Let's be honest. It's just a risky proposition that you would rather avoid. are those risks greater than the risks of a nuclear-capable Iran? And when I would argue that the latter, those risks far outweigh the former. So I'm a bit of a war hawk here. I think there is a bad piece in a good war. I think this is a good war. And I think the Middle East and the world and the West are safer today than it was on Thursday. And again, I'll just finish where I started. I think America and the West owe Israel and the Ukrainian army a real debt here. Israel took out more terrorists from the U.S.'s most wanted list in six weeks than we took out in 20 years.

11:15And they have set around nuclear capability back dramatically. The question I would have for you, and it's not a comment, it's an actual question. I can't figure out the extent to which the U.S. cooperated and coordinated. Or if Netanyahu basically said, we're doing this, We hope you're on board. And now Trump is trying to step into the light of the macho and the military victory here, what appears so far to be an incredible military operation thus far. Or if, in fact, they were very coordinated with kind of a PR head fake, you know, we're going to have a talk on Sunday. Do you have any thoughts on the level of integration or cooperation between the president and Israel?

11:56I think that it was a lot of the Israelis notifying the Americans as to what they were going to do so that the Americans weren't caught flat footed. And let's be clear, everything that Mossad and the IDF is able to accomplish, and it is tremendous. I was talking about this on the five. I actually got to speak for two and a half minutes straight, which I think was a record, but it was probably because I was praising Israel. So they took a break and let me go for it. You just have to take a step back and be in awe of the pinpoint precision with which they executed this particular mission. And same thing with Operation Grim Beeper from last year, that you have minimal civilian casualties.

12:39I think as far as I know, at least from the opening operation, there were none when it came to what happened last week. and that they know, like you were saying, where all the joint chiefs are sitting and they can just blow up that conference room or they can get a nuclear scientist while he sleeps. You know, that that's the kind of stuff that makes the best television or movies that anyone has ever seen. So hats off to them for that. But I do think that it was really a case of BB notifying the Americans of what he was going to do and that in pursuit of being a, quote, peacetime president, which is what Donald Trump wants and campaigned on and wanting this Nobel Prize, that he did want to continue on the diplomatic path.

13:19And they were going to sell us a nuclear deal that was no better than what we had before. Let's be very clear when you go through the steps that were part of this and what the Iranians had agreed to. And the reason that you also know that to be true is they have exactly the same negotiator that negotiated in 2015. It's not like he woke up and said, oh, I have a totally different idea of how I want to acquiesce to the Americans or the international community. So I think that Bibi put the American president and Secretary Rubio in a really tough spot because we stand with our ally in the region. We agree with your point that the world is better off when Iran doesn't have a nuclear bomb, but this might not have been the route that we wanted to take to get there.

14:00And Netanyahu saw an opening and he took it and his people appreciate it. Even the left that are no fans of him and his government. And we should note as well that he was facing a resolution to dissolve the government last week, right, six days ago, and has survived that again. But even the left approves of this because this feels like just a tremendous sigh of relief that they don't have to think about this daily. Well, I shouldn't say that. They do think about this daily because they're all in bomb shelters right now because of the Iranian response, but that this will be better for their children and their children's children if Iran's nuclear program ends up being decimated.

14:40What I think is important to highlight and where some people find themselves who just want to oppose Israel no matter what is that they're not separating what may be going on in Gaza with what happened in Iran. And those things are very different to me. And I believe that every single hostage should be returned. There are about 50 left. Half of them expected that they have already been murdered, return the hostages. I think after the terrorist attack on October 7th, that Israel deserves nothing less than getting all of their people back and that we should do everything we can to support them in that.

15:17But you do see thousands of innocent civilians that have died in Gaza. There are issues with getting humanitarian aid in. This is not something that there's disagreement on. Even people who support the president have been speaking out about this. And I feel like people looked at what happened in Iran and they just said Israel bad, no matter what, because of how they feel about Gaza or how they feel about the history of Israel and actions that they've taken over the last several decades. And I think that that is making people miss the point about what an incredible achievement this would be if the Iranian nuclear program was ended.

15:56So those are my thoughts on that. I assume that you are supportive of the U.S. giving Israel the B-2 bombers that they need to go after the nuclear site of Fordow, I think it's called, that's buried in the mountain. Yeah. Like, you raise a number of really valid points. Saturday morning, I woke up and I had trouble getting what I thought was really good information. CNN and the self-hating New York Times, like, could never find moral clarity around anything. And Fox, just sort of like a drunk uncle, like, go Israel, you know, kill those, kill those non-Westerners. And I wanted more nuanced information.

16:31And so I brought on a friend of mine, a guy named Dan Senor, who has this wonderful podcast, called me back. And I said, just break down what's been going on. And, you know, Dan has a bias. I have a bias. I'm not religious. I think of myself as Jewish, but I can't ascribe. I haven't earned Judaism as a point of pride because I'm a raging atheist, but I'm now a full-blown Zionist. And I try to be upfront about that. So I bring a set of values. Some people will call it bias. I call it a moral clarity. But any honest analysis is the following, that what's happened in Gaza raises a very interesting or valid concern.

17:10And that is similar to Trump in 2024. It feels like Netanyahu is running to stay out of jail. 100 percent. That he may, in fact, if he's not reelected, he may go to prison. And we have a wag the dog, a very likely scenario of wag the dog where you have the nation's top political leader in Israel goes on a war footing, not necessarily because maybe it's in the best interest of Israel, but because, quite frankly, it's in his best interest. It just feels like the war in Gaza needs to come to an end. And this is where I think it really hurts to have what I feel is an incompetent in the most important position in the world, and that is the president.

17:52And I feel that if the president was a more thoughtful, geopolitically aware person with a secretary of state that had a backbone and wasn't just trying to read the tea leaves around how he someday might be president, that they would, in fact, be putting a lot of pressure on Qatar, not taking a fucking four hundred million dollar plane from them and saying, we're going to ruin your economy unless you put pressure on Hamas to come to the table and also, quite frankly, working with a pan-Arab force, a U.S. force, and putting pressure on Netanyahu to say the death and destruction in Gaza needs to stop and taking a leadership role around that.

18:33But I think Trump is spending a lot more time thinking, how can I get the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi to build me a new golf course or building, as opposed to bringing political pressure on them to either create and finance a pan-Arab peace force for Gaza and to put pressure on both Hamas via Qatar and on Netanyahu to end the war in Gaza. Because that is what is, in my opinion, really kind of turning us, when I say us, Israel from the good guys to the bad guys, from David to Goliath. And it has huge negative ramifications for the support of Israel. I find this much easier to find moral clarity around.

19:16I just think if you think of the U.S. having four real enemies, people would list North Korea, China, Russia, and Iran. I think it's unfair to call China an enemy. I think they're a competitor, but the U.S. has so kind of gotten used to the hegemony of U.S. power that when a competitor shows that they're viable in striking distance, the gold medal winner hates the silver medal winner and sees them as their enemy. I think they're a competitor, not the enemy, But Iran is our enemy. And three of those four already have a nuclear weapon. I don't think four out of four is good for us. So I'm very sympathetic to the concerns that this is a wag the tail scenario.

19:52I bring a bias against Trump. I think he left Canada to try and act. I think he's trying to take credit for the IDF's win here. I get the sense. I mean, at four in the morning, Rubio was saying we didn't know about this. And then by nine in the morning, when it looked like it was a success, Trump was saying, well, of course, we were on board with it and beating his chest and returning from Canada to try and I think he's putting on his G.I. Joe uniform and trying to look tough and take credit for the expertise and the bravery of the IDF here. But that might be being unfair to him. Your thoughts?

20:28I think the truth is always somewhere in the middle right between those two positions and you know I don't know what any other American president frankly would have done when their strongest ally did something like this and I just wanted to raise since you said earlier something that is important is there's new polling out of Trump voters from 2024 and they are completely supportive of intervention here. So there's the narrative that, you know, Trump is a dove and people voted for him because they don't want to get into any wars. Well, the truth of the matter is, is they're going to go along with whatever it is that Trump wants to do.

21:0573 percent say Iran can't be trusted to honor any diplomatic agreements. 72 percent support direct U.S. military action if necessary to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons. 83 percent support Israel's preemptive strikes. 79 percent support sending offensive weapons. 91 % want to share intelligence with Israel and 89 % are very or somewhat concerned about Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. So whichever direction Trump decides to go, as usual, the base will follow him. So I know that it's a lot of fun to talk about the inter-party dynamics and the Tucker Carlson and MGT versus Josh Hawley and John Bolton or whatever.

21:45But the truth is that this is Donald Trump's party, and the base will follow him wherever he goes in this. And by some miracle, if there is a decent diplomatic agreement, I will praise that and hope for the best. But I do think to what we were just discussing, that people have really got to separate their feelings about the war in Gaza with their feelings about this strike on Iran. And yes, I hope that we end the war and that we end it soon. You know what I don't get is this, on the far right, this anger that, you know, Trump said we would never enter into these forever wars in sort of the isolationist argument.

22:28Like, enough already. It's not our problem. And my response to this, well, why the fuck are you proposing we take the military budget from$800 billion to$1.1 trillion? Are we worried about Canadian Mounties marching into Buffalo? I mean, if we're not going to take an active role in the support of our allies abroad, I mean, I get the argument that you get sometimes from the far left. Let's take our military budget down to 200 billion and spend 600 billion on our own children and food stamps and education that we don't need to be roaming the earth pretending to be G.I. Joe. I think that's a legitimate argument.

22:59But if you're looking to dramatically expand military spending, what are we worried about? Are we worried about Mexico invading us if we're not going to use it? Well, they want to give the money to ICE. Oh, there you go. For bonuses, right? That's probably... Not just bonuses, to hire more agents, border security. You know, the funds are fungible, as I'm told every single time that I talk about abortion. They're also caught up between the fact that it's a mix of doves and hawks that are part of this administration and the apparatus. Okay, but just the other really fascinating thing here, I find, was the use of drone technology.

23:35If I could invest in any technology right now, you watch, there's going to be a dozen unicorns in drone technology. They, again, similar to what the Ukrainian army did, which I thought was just inspiring. They figured out a way to get trucks into Iran that had pre-assembled drones and power, their self kind of self-charging infrastructure. And they launched these things. And as opposed to a two or three million dollar ICBM, they have these things that cost two or three hundred dollars. and using GPS and on-the-ground human intelligence, soft assets, they just swarm a building or a surface-to-air missile installation.

24:11Just the asymmetric war here in Yusuf Jones is incredible. And the Ukrainian army and Israel have shown that a technologically sophisticated army with skills around asymmetric warfare, which, by the way, does not describe the U.S. right now, is more powerful than these kinetic superpowers. I thought that was fascinating. So let's take a quick break. Stay with us.

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25:45Nobody owns us or tells us what we can and can't say. So we're free to report the whole picture. We connect what's happening in Washington to the rest of the globe. Expose corruption wherever we find it. and give fresh perspective on everything from wellness and soccer to culture, the climate and more. Read, watch and listen to The Guardian for free at TheGuardian.com. Welcome back. Let's move on here. The No Kings protests and Trump's military parade, which I describe as the saddest bat mitzvah in history. Nobody showed up for little Rachel's bat mitzvah, Jess. That's sad. Sadder than the military parade stuff.

26:25You want a lot of people at your bat mitzvah. What's your take on this? Listen, it was raining. I'm sure there were some people who would have been casual attendees of the military parade who decided to stay home. But I did think that the contrast was stark between the squeaky wheeled tanks rolling around D.C. and the five million people that turned up all over the country. I had friends abroad who went to No Kings protests, like in Barcelona and in London. I'm not sure, you know, if we're getting ahead of ourselves with this talk of the, you know, the 3.5 percent rule that if you have 3.5 percent of the population engaged in actions opposing the government, that you get a result.

27:10But I think it's a good step. And I felt like this was very different from the Women's March, which I did participate in. And, you know, we were out there basically just saying, I don't want Donald Trump. But there was a lack of specificity. We also didn't know what the Trump administration was going to look like. We were kind of just going off of these fears that we had from the 2016 election and the campaign. A lot of them ended up coming to fruition. But there was a specificity to why people were participating in the No Kings protests that I thought was really important, that people were there about the ICE raids that had happened, not just what might happen.