Raging Moderates: Is This a Turning Point for America? (ft. Sarah Longwell)

26:41I'm like, you're a senator. You're one of 100. And you're saying that this is a troll. Also, as though that's just like a normal way to. Well, it is when you have put a toddler in the Oval Office. That is true. As the mother of two of those little beast monkeys. This takes going far beyond Jerome Powell about whether the Federal Reserve can remain independent, whether monetary policy is now vulnerable to intimidation from the White House. I don't know if you read The Washington Post piece about how all this unfolded, but it seems like Trump is just fully throwing Bondi and Jeanine Pirro under the bus with this one.

27:19And, you know, the imagery of Bill Pulte sitting at Mar-a-Lago with one of his famous posters, right, with a wanted sign over Jerome Powell's face. And that's how he convinced Trump that this was going to be a good idea. It's so perfectly this administration, right, that they're sitting there and there's like a girl in a huge martini glass and they're having a Gatsby-themed party. And Bill Pulte's like, you know what would be a really great idea? And Scott Besson is in the toilet. So he missed that conversation. Scott's going to I shouldn't say that Secretary Besson I don't really know him is going to punch him in the face for real like it's going to happen now.

27:57I hope so I'm here for I mean I am here for Scott Besson gay man with rage who keeps throwing punches who lives in a Barbie dream house yeah everything about Scott Besson is kind of perfect that way. Just as a broader context for the Fed the thing to understand is that Trump is wrecking the economy with his tariffs and so he is looking for a different lever to improve things while his tariffs like get to work. Right. Like he knows he's destroying the economy, so he wants to run it hot and he wants lower interest rates so he can run it hot. So he's trying to bully the Fed into making this decision.

28:32And the fact that Jerome Powell is one of the last just like regular serious people left in Washington. Um, God, I gotta say, I don't know. I had been pretty down since the Renee Good thing. Like, I'd been just sort of, like, sitting in my rage watching Jerome Powell in all of his old man steadiness say and lay it out so clearly. This is pretextual. I went in front of Congress. And he's not exercised. He's not foaming at the mouth. He's just laying out the facts. And then he's also doing what I wish a lot of other, I think, public officials would do, which is he clearly has called Lisa Murkowski to be like, hey, I testified in front of you.

29:19You know this. You're a reasonable person. This is what he's doing. it. Like he's called Tom Tillis. He has talked to them and said, you know, this is wrong. And he is making them stand up for him. And that is like, I don't know, he's handling Trump and what is happening to him better. And the other thing is like he is fighting in a world in which everybody else has basically given up their institution for Trump's benefit. He is refusing to he's he's out in May. He could just wait it out. He could just put his head down and try to do his best. But he is publicly putting his body out in front and saying, I won't let you do this to my institution.

30:00And I just, you know, not all heroes wear capes. We are often don't get like I just I spent a lot of time thinking about silence and who has been silent in this moment. Like we had an entire generation, you speaking of George W. Bush, of generals and of presidents and people in an administration who sent people across the world to die for American democracy, or not American democracy, but to push democracy elsewhere, right? Vladimir Putin has tried to exercise more influence over the American government and over the American public over the last 10 years than George W. Bush has, right? Like, then those generals.

30:40I was at a party and I saw Robert Gates' book, which was called Duty on the Bookshelf, and I thought, is he still alive? Haven't heard from him. Where are the people who are so sure what their duty is and what they hide behind? Like, I'm sure it's unusual for the Fed chair to make a public statement like that, right? It's not like that's a normal thing, just like it is unusual for presidents and former military officials to get involved in politics after their tenure. But can we all admit that this is not a normal time and that there is a duty right now to speak out? And Jerome Powell just, I just, man, it's late in the game, but thank God.

31:14And I don't mean late in the game for him because I think he's always been good. But I mean, it is kind of late to try to inspire courage out of a lot of these other people. Like, that's not going to happen. But he is doing the right thing in the right way, and I admire it deeply. I do as well. And it's interesting that this is the line for a lot of people. I mean, I think that they understand that the implications for the financial markets are going to be really bad. And so it's kind of like a bottom line instead of the final line. And that's what Scott Besant was so upset about. Axios was reporting that.

31:48But, you know, we don't know how certain things are going to affect us, right? Like, we have an idea that if we see a woman sitting in a car getting shot by an ICE agent, it's going to have X effect on us. But I don't think people necessarily predicted that watching Jerome Powell coolly and calmly for two minutes straight direct a camera on a Sunday night, right? It was Sunday night, You know, telling us exactly what kind of retaliatory action this administration is taking for X, Y and Z actions that he took that he believed were going to be the best thing for steering the American economy was going to have, especially on some of these Republicans who have been so weak in the face of gross overreach, to put it politely, on behalf of the president.

32:35I don't think Mike Johnson has been on camera about it, but I'm sure even he was rattled by this one. And looking at those statements, I mean, I'm a sucker for a joint statement. So, you know, all the former Fed chairs and Treasury secretaries and just this morning, all of the central bankers also issued a statement saying, you know, we stand in solidarity with Jerome Powell. And he was going to go down in history, kind of just going down in history. I don't think he had a reputation for being particularly amazing, not as a human being, but in terms of his stewardship of the Fed. And Trump is solidifying his place in this story, right, of the few last good men and women that have any backbone in the face of this aspiring authoritarian that we have down 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

33:30And I think he totally called all those people. And it also made me think about Tom Tillis, who I've been interested in, I guess, I mean, really only for the last year, but starting with the confirmation hearings and just his willingness to speak out. And then, like, how important it is that people actually stay and fight. Right. So, like, just don't resign and leave. You got to stay in that role because guess what? Tom Tillis, he might be retiring, but he's still sitting on that banking committee. Right. And he's still the one who gets to decide who the next Fed chair is. And Kevin Hassett, who loves to give every interview that he possibly can because he knows Trump loves nothing more than being able to see you in HD, might have obsequious himself.

34:14I don't know if that's the word. But a kiss ass to the point that he's not going to get to be the next Fed chair because everybody is concerned now that you can't have someone who is so deep in Trump's pocket in that role. And so you should stay and you should fight for those Republicans that are thinking about, you know, dropping out early or kind of checking out and giving an occasional interview and just doing constituent work like you matter in all of this. And I hope that they're taking taking it to heart. Yeah, I mean, obviously, look, I wish they were doing more. Like, I think Murkowski should threaten to caucus with the Democrats.

34:51Like, they have power and they, and like, I am appreciative. I really am because it's better than before. But I sometimes think we get our, we now have such low expectations that they can like clear this meager bar by say, putting out a statement that says, I don't really like this and I'm not happy about it. Right. Like, no, Lisa Murkowski. God darn it. I'm not sure if I'm allowed to swear. Oh, I think I've done it. Yeah. Oh, definitely. You do you, girl. Let's go. Like, say you're going to caucus with the Democrats. Tom Tillich, you are on a fixed timeline. You are out of there. Go say you're going to caucus with the Democrats.

35:34Like, I just and I used to I used to sort of poo poo talk like this, actually, when when other people would do it and say, look, guys, you're playing fantasy politics. This isn't something that's going to happen. But I feel less like that now because I feel like it is it was always obvious to me. But I feel like now it is obvious to everyone what Trump is doing. Yeah. Like somebody needs to start. And this is and this is was one of my big beefs with Biden is you're like, don't keep telling me democracy is at stake if you are not going to act like democracy is at stake. Like when democracy is at stake, if your democracy depends on it, you don't renominate an 82 year old.

36:11Like, there is a gap between your actions and what you are saying to us. And I know Lisa Murkowski. Do you know what? I mean, I have been in the—these are my—those were my people for a lot of the Trump administration, right, is these moderate Republicans. I have done things—a lot of things in my private life to support them. And I am done with Lisa Murkowski. Like, she has done more—they do more damage now, these moderates, in this space, if they don't, because it gives their tacit approval. Like, they're the weathervane for normies of looking to see what is acceptable. And until they start saying this is absolutely unacceptable and I won't tolerate it, there's a reason the American people look up and say, I don't know, seems kind of like normal stuff to me.

36:54And it's because those elites don't react. Like, the Jerome Powell thing matters a great deal. like I said again it's not like this massive public issue but it matters a great deal to a set of elites that were willing to sort of tolerate Trump destroying the country because it might benefit them they could be transactional and get something out of it and now that that's being threatened that is meaningful right so they may react in a way that then the rest of the country looks up at some point and says oh people who were kind of cool with this are now ringing alarm bells and that's what signals to average people that the vibes are souring on Trump Interesting.

37:29Yeah. I mean, I guess then it does going back to what I was saying, like, you know, where is your line? It's about your pocket. And I'm talking about the elite pockets, not the average American pockets. And I do see what you're seeing on Lisa Murkowski. I'm still I don't know her personally. But, you know, like voting to convict after January 6th, things like that, that I think were really important. But then voting for the big, beautiful bill. And I get it. You got some kitbacks for your state. Or Kash Patel or or like to confirm. I thought you were about to say Kash Patel used to be good. And I was like, Sarah.

38:02No, no, no, no, no, no, no. I get it. Voted to confirm Kash Patel. She confirmed. Like, I was like, what's the point of you? What is the point of having those people in there? Well, RFK Jr. is just the worst. Yeah. And Bill Cassidy, I can't with that guy. And he's like, as someone who's dedicated my life to, you know, making sure that children are vaccinated. I'm like, are you embarrassed to keep typing this or whoever you are making type this? You're totally right. And I think that this is a bit of the perspective that your cohort, so former Republicans, squishy or not, that have basically, you know, made friends with folks that you grew up thinking not that nice things about because we're all on the same side of having free and fair elections and getting to exercise important constitutional rights and things like that that you see.

38:51and you can be a little bit harsher about it because you've been on both sides of it. So I'm very appreciative of that. Yeah, well, I was a John McCain Republican. Like, that's just sort of what I was. I got to say, though, if we're just going to do some appreciations, what you do, people are always like, Sarah, I don't know how you sit and listen to the voters. And I'm like, well, I'm just listening to them and I'm just gathering information. Like, you have to debate Jesse Waters while he sits there and says things like, you know, just ignore women. They're just there to be pretty. and if you just give them gifts, I mean, I would be across the table with my bare hands.

39:26I don't know how you do it. It's interesting that that's what you went to of all the Jesse-isms. It's funny, like, outside the bubble, what breaks through, people are like, he took the tires out of his now wife's car, which is not true. It was a joke that he made, but it's funny. It, like, lives in social media lore. I totally get it. I mean, part of it is also just, like, I've worked with them for so long and kind of have figured out tools, I guess, to be able to ingest whatever's incoming and then make sure that I'm able to get out what I want to get out because you have a finite amount of time and you're going to be interrupted, you know, as you're going.

40:04But thank you. And it's not as bad as it might look to you. I don't feel it that way. I don't know if I'm, you know, what's wrong with, I don't go to therapy, so I don't know really what's wrong with me, but it's not as bad as it might look. People don't realize, I think, enough how unusual it is to have somebody like you get access to that audience and be able to just sit there and spit facts for a piece of time where they get an alternate perspective. And like, that is the Lord's work. Like, that is so important. And it means you've got to take all of this other stuff in order to be in that position to give the opposing view to people who otherwise would not get it, which just takes a very specific type of person and temperament that I am deeply admiring of.

40:53Because part of the problem for the ex-Trump or the ex-Republicans is that Trump has, we feel so betrayed. I think it's easier for Democrats who are like, well, I never really liked Republicans that much or never thought they were correct or whatever. For those of us who feel so deeply betrayed, like everything we were taught and told was a lie. Like watching Trump right now, like, take stakes in businesses and, like, state control and attack the media and say America's like a third world country. And, I mean, just all of it is anathema. I mean, I think I hear from liberals all the time who are like, this was always who the party was.

41:32And I'm like, I promise you, it was not. Like, this is not how John McCain talked. It is not how the Bushes talked. I'm not saying that they made every correct policy decision, but they did not hate people. They did not hate this country. They had what was the best in the country in mind and the things that they did. Donald Trump does not. And so anyway, I just your fortitude is admirable is my point. Thank you. I'm very appreciative of it. And it's one of the nice things when I do get to go between the two worlds. And that's what has been so fulfilling about being able to have a podcast as well, that I get to have these kinds of conversations and then I'm going to go do the five at five.

42:11And what happens there also directly informs the things that I want to talk about here, because it's those bright, flashing red flags that I get from living in a conservative environment where I'm thinking like, oh, we're out here having this conversation. But the people who we need to persuade to actually take that leap to do what you and Tim did and a lot of people did for Biden 2020, if they didn't for Hillary, like this is this is not doing it. It's not satisfying them. Were you on with Jean Pirro? Yeah, I've been quite close. I mean, I sat next. You know, she was right next to me. I talk to her all the time.

42:51Because if I were part of what's funny to me is the idea of Jerome Powell. She's like, well, he's not returning my calls. And like I just in my head I see like the phone going off and him seeing Jeanine Pirro and just hitting like the ignore button. And I'm like, good job. Well, I think what was actually going on and it's my favorite conspiracy theory about why Powell did this is he was so upset about Bobby Weir dying because he's a big deadhead. OK. That he was sitting there like listening to Sugar Magnolia thinking like, oh, I'm going to come out and I'm going to fucking do this. Right. I'm going to do a direct to camera.

43:26And I know he had been consulting with a very high-powered firm, but, you know, him in, like, jean shorts. Like, I don't know. The Times piece, by the way, on the evolution of the jean cutoff and, like, what Bobby Weir's thighs meant was incredible. I highly recommend it. Okay. Okay. We're going to take a break and then talk about Party ID. Stay with us.

43:54Welcome back. So I don't know. It was a big news day yesterday in general. But did you saw this Gallup party idea thing that came out? Because it I remember when it switched the party ID right around the 2024 election. And it was like leading every show. I was like, can I be sick today? Like, I just don't want to go in and talk about how a majority of Americans, you know, now identify with the Republican Party. Like, we're going to lose. Then we did lose. It continued on into Q1. But there has now been a 13-point swing towards the Democrats, so leading by eight in party identification and also by eight on the generic ballot, which—and it's one survey on the generic ballot.

44:42Some of it only has, you know, three or four points. Democrats are up. But either way, we are heading in towards, if all things hold, a very good midterms for Democrats. So what did you take away from the party ID shift? Yeah, well, there's a couple things in the Gallup stuff that was interesting. I mean, the headline is actually that 45 percent of Americans now identify as independents, which is being driven in large part by young people identifying as independents. And I think that that is – independence always requires some context because I think people are like, see, those are the people who are like a pox on both their houses.

45:17And I'm like, kind of, because there's two things about independence. One is most of them identify as leaners. Right. Right. So they either lean Republican or they lean Democrat. But part of the other thing goes to know that they are not reaching moderates, the independents. I think I have been in a lot of democracy spaces and even political spaces where people are like, see, this is why you need an independent third party. And I'm like, oh, no, guys, those independents do not all look the same. And in fact, one of the hallmarks of Trumpism that is going to have influence for many, many years to come in multiple political cycles is that he has taught a lot of his voters to hate the Republican Party.

45:58They are Trump only or Trump first voters. The number of people that he brought into the political sphere that didn't used to vote and didn't used to care. They're just there for Trump. And they see Trump as transcending the political parties. They understand the Republican Party is a vehicle for him, but not his party. They see him as like they have scorn. When I listen to MAGA voters, they have scorn for the Republican Party. He's a third party. He is the I mean, he's the right leaning independent party. Exactly. That's exactly right. And so I just I thought that the two really interesting takeaways are the fact that you still have a lot of independence and that that people should just stop thinking that that means you can run an independent candidate.

46:45Number one, because a lot of it is like sort of Trump's influence as the party party's influence wane and you get these sort of outside figures. Then the other one is how many of those people are young. And so I do think we have a a increase in young people just refusing to identify with either of these parties as they come up. People our age can look back and say, oh, these are Trump is anathema to the Republican Party. But I listen to 25-year-olds and 30-year-olds all the time. And Trump has been the Republican Party for or at least Trump has been on the political scene for as long as they've been around.

47:19He's not anathema to them in politics. He's this thing that has existed. And so they think this is what politics is. And the last thing, though, just for the good news, because this is what you really wanted, which is like, yay, people think Democrats are they're coming back to us. I'm happy to take like a scorned W, basically. Like as long as you hold your nose and do it to give us some semblance of checks and balances, like hate me, but vote for me. Yeah, I do think I do think Democrats are going into a strong midterm for them. Two things on that. One is, though, unlike 2018, which was the first time I ever rooted for Democrats in my life, they won like 40 seats because there were a lot of seats that were up for grabs.

48:00there is many fewer competitive seats this time around. And so like that kind of a pickup. But I do think the Mary Peltola get in Alaska as well as Sherrod Brown. Like you are starting to see a possibility of a Senate map in a wave election where Democrats could get both the Senate and the House because they're going to win the House. It's just a matter of by how much like what is the level of repudiation. But my one caution on this is this is the normal ebb and flow of politics, Right. Party in power. It's annoying. It's not doing things the way everybody wants. So and also Democrats now have a structural advantage.

48:36We're in off year elections. More of their people turn out than a lot of these low propensity voters who turn out and vote for Trump. So we're dealing with all those realities. Those are good for Democrats. That is not enough to save America. Saving America is a root and branch operation for this version of the Republican Party. And so for any Democrat who soothes themselves entirely by what is happening in 2026, I would just like you to say, continue to gird your loins for a long term fight. fight. This is a generational challenge and just one election won't be enough. Like it is it is necessary.

49:15It is necessary to stop the bleeding, but it is insufficient for the long term project of beating back the toxic forces that Donald Trump has unleashed on America. And that will require real changes from the Democratic Party, real thoughtfulness about the kinds of candidates they nominate, what a big tent looks like, what their purity tests are going to be, what issues they need to do to meet average Americans, like I was talking about with immigration and having to sort of moderate there on some of these issues and on some of the social issues. What I don't want is for anybody to think, yeah, we're going to crush in 26 and like that that's enough because it's not.

49:51No, definitely not. And you're totally right about the map. It's been an interesting, I guess marriage between two opinions though on Chuck Schumer that I hold dear. So not enjoying Chuck Schumer is one of them, right? And thinking that we need new leadership on the Senate level. And then also that Chuck Schumer has been very effective in recruiting the candidates that he has wanted and who I think actually stand the best chance to win some of these tough Senate races. So getting Roy Cooper in North Carolina, Sherrod Brown to come back in Ohio, So Mary Patola in Alaska was a Chuck Schumer project.

50:30We still don't know what's going to happen in Texas. Not that I really think we're going to win Texas, but like Iowa will be interesting. Anyway, Iowa will be. I'm holding those two kind of separate ideas in my head at once. And, you know, the scale of the win for the House will be very telling as well. I think Hakeem Jeffries, you know, big win, obviously getting the Obamacare subsidies passed through the House and getting so many Republicans to come over and vote for that. I don't know what happens in the Senate. And Trump is saying that he may veto it anyway. I can't even like it's so illogical to me when someone's like, here is a big win on a platter.

51:08Like, why don't you just sign it? And you can say I'm listening to the people at worst. Like, he's the guy who was like, we have to protect Medicare and Medicaid and Social Security. Like, he is the right leaning independent party. So I don't really understand any of that. But, you know, Hakeem Jeffries has seen how hard it is to function with a slim majority. Right. Like watching Mike Johnson, you know, calling people. I heard, you know, you're at urgent care and you got to get back here because if you know if one person has RSV or RSV is only for kids. I have two little kids. You have kids. You know, you know, the RSV circuit.

51:44Anyway, you know, he can't afford for someone to even have the flu at this point. And that will be very tough for Hakeem Jeffries if the ratio is that small and there's still going to be more gerrymandering news to come in all of this. But I was hopeful to see people at least flirting with Democratic ID again, because I think that the brand was so severely hurt during the Biden years. And Bernie Sanders was always smart, you know, to be an independent, the caucuses with Democrats because he could run against everybody. Right. He could run against the machine and he could run against the Republican Party.

52:24and a lot of people who I think are very good democratic representatives are having to figure out how they can do that too right like how someone who has been in congress or in the senate or just working in party politics for so long can battle both of those things because the establishment has to be taken down for your gird your loins that's about blowing up our side as well but then also coming out of it fully intact and able to govern and it's asking a lot of people Yeah, I don't know. This is where I think what Chuck Schumer should do is preside over an orderly transition that helps. I mean, this is what Nancy Pelosi did.

53:04And this is what Joe Biden would have done had he been not a narcissist. Like there would have been this. Coulda, woulda, shoulda. I know. But like, you know, but Chuck Schumer has the opportunity to say, you know what? The gerontocracy is real. In fact, we should probably look at how old our Congress people are because this is what Mike Johnson is also up against is people are dying. They die while they're in Congress and then you lose, you know, your majority. Like, they need younger people and they need to turn over the leadership to people who understand the threat that Trump poses. Because part of the problem with Schumer and a lot of these guys is just they're used to working with Republicans.

53:45Like, they're from an old time. They're not wartime generals, right? And so they're establishment guys. They raise money. They go through all the steps the same way. And, like, you're going to need people who are ready to do things differently. But he can be a facilitator of that. Find the right person. Make sure it's not a crazy person. That's just operating on everyone's angry id and get somebody really good as a good fundraiser instead of holding on to it longer than he needs to. So that's a question of whether or not he he thinks democracy is at stake and he can do something to be helpful.

54:14It does feel like we've just been saying it for so long that it feels like a regular slogan. Like we're like protect health care. Democracy is at stake. But also when you do retire, all you've got then is your legacy. and a lot of people's legacies are being rewritten in the negative direction. And I would not want that at all. Sarah Longwell, this was such a pleasure. Thank you for joining me. So fun. Thanks for having me. Yeah, anytime. You bet.