Raging Moderates - Kamala on Fox News, Elon’s Election Gamble, and an Endorsement

26:07But it was a missed opportunity. And there was something that came out over the weekend. And I forget what article it was, but it said that Democrats really missed an opportunity by excluding Elon Musk from the fold. And I wanted to ask you about it, that we could have taken him in and told him all the stuff that is true, like you launch rockets, we all drive your cars, you get Starlink to people from everywhere, from North Carolina to Ukraine to Estonia. We want you on our team. And because he is, you know, the island of the misfit toys, he took the rejection of that from when he first started doing interviews and talking about threats to the First Amendment, et cetera.

26:52And we kind of banished him. And now we're paying the price for it. I mean, what is he spending, like a million dollars a day or something on recruiting or getting people to sign up to vote, to get out the vote effort that he's funding? And do you think we should have held him tight? So the—I hate to admit this because I think it's a terrible role model for young men, but there are millions, if not tens of millions of people who think he's the most impressive person on the planet. And you can empathize with that. And I think one of the biggest strategic errors, if you go back in time, was Biden had an EV summit and didn't invite Musk.

27:29And that was just fucking stupid. That's just— That's so weird. That's just basically saying, I mean, Tesla has inspired the EV race. It's a great American company. It's created a ton of shareholder value. And to have an EV summit and just bring, you know, the CEO of the Pontiac Leaf, it's just, okay, what you're saying is you're, that's a big, you're sticking up the middle finger to Elon Musk. And I don't think he's ever forgiven them for that. Why would you? I mean, you never would. Oh. No, I don't want, you're a far better man than you. No, no, no, no. I hold grudges for much less than that.

28:06And then when you see this projectile that is 16 stories crashing and barreling towards Earth, and then it ignites and somehow gets caught by a metal contraption, I look at that and I think, yeah, I'll vote for whoever that guy's voting for. I mean, the reality is that shit's just really, really impressive. And I think they massively screwed up alienating him. Now, to the extent, so let's use that as a bridge to, he is now giving a million dollars a day, I think, in a lottery for if you get someone to register to vote. And my understanding is legal scholars have pretty much weighed in and have said it's not only deeply concerning, but I've seen things highlighted that said bottom line is it's a violation of campaign election laws and it's illegal.

28:52But here's the problem, and that is the algebra of deterrence is not in place. What is the algebra of deterrence? The majority of us will never commit a crime, one, because we like to think we're good people and good citizens, but I would argue the algebra of deterrence is why we don't commit crimes. And the algebra is very straightforward. It's the likelihood you get caught times the penalty has to be greater than the potential upside. So I have access to inside information occasionally, right, serving on boards and shit like that. I would like to make a lot of money. I could talk myself, I don't think, but I could see how people could rationalize a way to make money with insider trading.

29:28But if you're a straight white guy on a board and you're caught trading on insider information, you could go to jail for a very long time. The upside's just not worth it. The likelihood you get caught in a digital age is pretty high. The likelihood, based on your background, if you're that privileged to be on a board, that they're not going to show you any sort of leniency and you end up in jail and the Southern District comes after you full-throated. I think a lot of people do that math and go, no, I'll make sure that I'm not trading in stocks where I have non-material insider information. The algebra of deterrence is in place.

30:00It is not in place in some key areas in our economy. I can have information that 15-year-old girls are cutting themselves and are suitably more depressed and engaging in self-harm. And I can see that information and I can cover it up and I can lie about it. because if I get fined or if someone says you violated your consent decree, the fine might be 11 weeks of free cash flow. So the algebra of deterrence is not in place in what is the largest sector in our economy, and that is the tech sector. Until someone shows up in an orange suit, when we find out they knew that their products were damaging young women or girls specifically or that they were radicalizing young men, nothing's going to happen because we can't come up with fines big enough.

30:42The algebra of deterrence is not in place. The problem I see with the must thing is he's done the math. Yeah, it's illegal. But they're not, if Trump wins, they're not going to kick him out of office because of an illegal campaign tactic. There is no fine big enough for Trump. His lawyers, I'm sure his lawyers have said, can I go to jail for that? No. Is it illegal? Yeah, but can I go to jail for it? No. How big will the fine be? I don't know,$10 or$50 million? Fuck it. Let's roll. Let's roll. The algebra of returns is also not in place with very wealthy taxpayers. because very wealthy people have very complicated tax returns.

31:15And essentially, because of the underfunding that happened until the last year, the likelihood of you getting caught is so minimal that it encourages very, very wealthy people to be so incredibly aggressive with their taxes that the algebra of deterrence isn't in place there. And I don't think it's here either. There are just specific parts of our economy where it pays to break the law. If you had a parking meter in front of your house that cost$100 an hour and the ticket was$0.25, you would break the law. And I see this as a perfect example until they actually say, all right, if you blatantly violate campaign laws, you can no longer spend money on media.

31:53You have an injunction. You're done. You can't spend money on media. Or even maybe have a recall election after the fact. Until that happens, why wouldn't you break the law? Well, if you have no moral compass, yeah, 100%. Sure. that's a hard one for me. I'm so afraid of everything. It's like the Jewish female guilt nervousness thing that there's no way that I'd be able to do it. But I think it's another reason that the Trump campaign is benefiting from this truncated schedule because Musk only started doing this like three, four days ago or something like that. So worst case scenario, oh, I did it for two weeks.

32:32It's not like I had this plan in place and I've been doing it for an entire year. Yeah, that's totally the defense. It's also—it's been wildly ineffective, what he's been doing. And this has been a theme that we're talking about. The Guardian had a scoop over the weekend that a quarter of the door knockers in Arizona and Nevada for the Trump campaign—so Musk is paying them, the money's coming from him—are writing fraudulent reports. They're not actually knocking on doors because they go back and they check, like, did you hear from somebody? And they just marked it off and took the money and went and got some beers or whatever they're going to do.

33:10So I continue to be heartened by the Democrats organization on a comparative level, like canvassing matters. And you're seeing all of these deeply reported pieces, especially in swing districts like in Arizona and Georgia, where people are talking about their interactions with voters and are meeting a lot of women in particular, which isn't surprising since we're trending towards this historic gender gap. People are coming to the door and they're basically saying, I'm voting for her. I don't want to talk about it. It's not like in 2016 when everyone was so excited, like, I've got my woman card here.

33:46I have a 3D printed Hillary doll that is in my daughter's room now. It's really cute. She goes, like, that's mama. And it's a blonde and a blue suit, so obviously it's not mama. But, like, there's this excitement that I still feel about her. A 3D-printed Hillary doll. That a stranger sent to me, and I wasn't even bothered that he somehow knew my home address, because I literally came to the door, and I was like, should I report this or just sleep with it forever? And, like, people used to be excited about their vote in a different way than they are in this election. Even if you're enthusiastic about turning the page, whatever way you're turning it, people, I'm sure you guys notice this in your lives.

34:30Like, it's not as fun to talk about anymore over dinner. You're just like, it's happening. When is this going to be over? Soon enough, I hope. So speaking of when it's over, early voting has kicked in. Georgia received more than 600 ,000 votes in the first days. North Carolina have massive lines despite being in some areas where very hard hit by Hurricane Helene. What's your read? Is this massive—is this tidal wave of early voting good or bad for Democrats or Republicans? So there are two schools of thought on it. I, in general, tend to think big turnout is better for Democrats and also just better for democracy.

35:12I want the most amount of however it shakes out. I will be excited if the number of people that are involved in the democratic process is higher. And I think that we should all feel that way. But I also really want to win. And the reason that I think that it's better is except in Georgia and Nevada, I think it is. It's been a higher turnout amongst women than amongst men. And Republicans have been running around. If you're very into talking politics, I'm sure someone has told you that Republicans now have a higher number of registered voters than Democrats. We hadn't seen this trend line in decades.

35:45And it happened. It came out like two weeks ago. The Gallup data showed it for the first time. But what they miss with that talking point is, does your affiliation mean how you're voting? Liz Cheney is still a registered Republican. Yep. And a lot of these people are. So I'm not sure it's indicative of anything like that. But the high turnout, I think, is net-net good for us. And apparently the Gen Z turnout is massive. And I saw a video online today. That's incredible, yeah? Definitely. I saw this video of kind of this asshole guy walking around interviewing young women about why they're voting for Kamala.

36:23And the point was to make fun of them because they kept talking about abortion and being able to control their own bodies. And I saw these Trump supporters being like, you know, you callous fools like you think it's all about, you know, being able to go out and sleep with whoever at the sex club and then just go and get an abortion. And then order Chinese. And then order chicken with scallions, which was delicious here. And it's amazing to see a piece of content that means such different things to both groups. So all the Republicans are dunking on it and all of the Democrats or the left-leaning supporters or people who just care about reproductive health are saying it is a completely normal thing for a 22-year-old woman to worry that she's going to have a health care emergency and not be able to get the treatment that she needs.

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38:30Lowe's, we help you save. Basic install only, date restrictions apply, subject to availability. Install by independent contractors. See associate for details, contiguous US only. So let's talk a little bit about the polls. I'm curious what you make of these. So far, a new general election polling shows that Harris is up by four in Georgia, up by two in Michigan, up by two in Pennsylvania, which is sort of coming down to be kind of the most important state. Definitely. He has no path without it, and she needs it too, but he like really needs it. It's interesting because, well, I'll go through this in a second.

39:08Wisconsin, Harris up three. Nevada, Thai. North Carolina, Trump up three. Arizona, Trump up three. See, I read this poll, and to me it means it looks as if the edge is to Harris. And if you look at all, the majority of, quote, unquote, really thoughtful people I know are actually quite worried. It feels like our momentum was arrested about two weeks ago when it swung back dramatically. And then if you look at the betting sites, which I think would be where I would go for information, but my podcast co-host on Prop G Markets, Ed Ellison, pointed out that, keep in mind, the people who gamble are young men who are biased towards Trump.

39:43And then I got an email today from my friend Michael Auerbach saying it's a Democrat in there spending millions on Trump in hopes that it'll convince Trumpers to stay home because they don't need to show up. It just is like there's all of this crazy kind of people trying to manipulate in the role it plays. When I saw these polls, I thought this is wrong because this feels decidedly harassed to me. Any thoughts on the polls? Well, this was part of the change in my mood. I said I'd been, like, algorithm miserable for the last two weeks. And this morning, I was like, we're back. I actually, we went to an apple farm on Saturday for apple picking with our little people.

40:29And I was like, there were Trump flags everywhere, people out doing their thing. And we passed by one Kamala Harris sign. And I actually, like, fist pumped. Like, I'm not a fist pumper. And my husband goes, it says Kamala Harris is an idiot. And then I remembered we're like five minutes from Bedminster. This is Trump country. But I saw that, which is from a very reputable pollster. And that felt more in line with the fact that we know that a majority of Americans have more aligned policy positions to the Harris campaign. That doesn't mean that she's going to win, but it means that she's breaking through on a lot of levels.

41:11There was an AP poll out that she is leading on a number of economic issues, which is a really big deal, like keeping inflation down, dealing with the cost of groceries. And to your point about who's changing their mind, I think it was the Emerson poll had 60 to 36 ratio that people have decided in the last month are breaking for Harris. So if you decided over a month ago, Trump was winning that by huge margins. But what she is doing, and whether that's just that she's more in the national consciousness, if you're just seeing her on The View, whether you like what she said or you're seeing her sit down with Brett Baier or you're seeing her town halls, that it's making people feel calmer about a Harris presidency, which is what Brett Stevens was arguing in The Times today where he said finally that he's going to vote for her.

42:02The undecided voter who's now decided? Not until—I look— Again, she was up 10 points with independents in the last Fox poll, so— But you—the poll we referenced is an AP poll, and it shows Harris and Wall's favorability up 5 % and 4 % respectively, whereas Trump and Vance are down 18 % and 15%. So that feels very favorable for Harris. Yet, I don't know about you, but kind of the zeitgeist I'm hearing from people, quote-unquote, in-the-know, pollsters, is that I'm really, really worried. The bottom line is it just feels like it's within. Can I ask you if you think the betting markets, the stuff matters at all?

42:40Because I know a lot of people that are complete truthers are that the Wall Street Journal had a big expose on how polymarket is being moved. I mean, your friend has an interesting counter theory, but they found all of these Trumpers were the ones that was pushing it because now he's up to 65 percent odds. I think there's no doubt. I think there's more oxygen being taken out of the room by a – I mean, if you think about it, betting is like the stock market. And the stock market absorbs millions of points of light, and it's seen as kind of the total arbiter. Whenever I go on a board, I always call the CFO because the CFO is the source of truth.

43:12From the market standpoint, the stock price is the source of truth. The CEO can talk flowery, but at the end of the day, the stock attempts to absorb tens of millions of points of light and then make a very no-mercy, emotionless decision with one singular thing. Like the aliens, the xenomorphs from Alien, it's just totally focused on killing. It has no conscience. It has no morals. It can't be bargained with. And stocks are the same way. It's people who just want to make money. And so when you see a betting market says that it's approximately a 60 percent or almost two in three chance that Trump's going to win, I think that's great for the Trump campaign because it says this unemotional arbiter from people who are just focused on making money think he's going to win.

43:58And I think that creates I think anything that creates momentum that this person is likely to win is good for that person. Having said that, I have no idea. By the way, the polls, all the gambling sites were wrong in 2020. They also saw Trump winning. And that goes back to Ed's thesis, the young men have a bias towards Trump. Real quickly, do you think the death of Senoir has any sort of impact on the election at this point? Well, I think it's yet to be determined on the actual voting. But it was interesting to see in the last few days stories about her trouble with Arab voters in Michigan and her trouble with Jewish voters in Pennsylvania.

44:40And I have a lot of friends, Josh Shapiro truthers, who are, you know, watching him handle the Jewish holidays with huge amounts of passion and inclusivity and grace. And him and his wife just seem like wonderful ambassadors for the religion and everything that we're about. and they're like, I told you, like, Tim Walls is great. These soundbites, calling them weird and saying mind your damn business was all well and good. But that guy, the Barack Obama of it all would have been much better for us. And time will tell. If we lose, I'm probably going to be pretty mad that I thought Walls was a good choice.

45:24but it does seem like there are probably going to be young people that potentially set this out in in michigan probably most of all and that there are going to be some jews more in our cohort kind of you know overeducated and reading too much and in their feelings about it who feel like they can't tick the box with her. But who knows? Like, last week, Senwar's dad, I mean, it was only like three weeks ago that the beeper stuff started happening. It feels like this whole thing is going at lightning pace. So I don't know what it'll be like. Do you think it's having a real impact? Well, I fail to see how it's anything but positive for the current administration, because the feeling of chaos, the existing administration pays the price for that.

46:16But I think their messaging around Israel has been abysmal because this is the worst of both worlds. Biden and Harris, I believe, have actually been pretty good on Israel. Whenever anyone complains about them. I grew up in Los Angeles. I went to UCLA. I was in a Jewish fraternity. The majority of my close friends from college are Jewish. They're all voting for Trump. They're just like, no, I have family there. I want no milquetoast bullshit around it. I don't want empathy. I want someone who's squarely behind Israel, full stop. And right now, Trump has done a better job of communicating that because where Biden and Harris have really screwed up is that no world leader has been better on Israel than Biden and Harris.

46:56There was only one world leader that immediately deployed two carrier strike forces to the Mediterranean, such that if the Iranians had any ideas about starting a multi-front war, he said, we got 4 ,500 incredibly skilled people and we can deliver the violence of a big nation. and it's sitting off your shore. So sit the fuck down. That was the most important move made outside of Israel. And Americans, Biden and Harris did it. But at the same time, all this bullshit, wavering, we're trying for a truce. I support them, but I don't. It's like, they've handled it terribly because they don't get any credit for what they, everybody's angry at them.

47:39Jews are angry at them. Muslim Americans are angry at them. So my belief was, folks, you got to pick a side here. And trying to like thin them, they just haven't, they haven't thread the needle here. And he doesn't get, he and Vice President Harris don't get nearly the credit. And just saying, my husband is Jewish, is not a policy decision, in my view. So I think they've just handled the messaging terribly around this. But I do think his death can be nothing but positive for the current administration, or at least. um well you would you're kind of weeding out when you kill a terrorist as big and as bad as sin were you're you're able to weed out the people that were never going to be with you anyway right like that you had no choice of penetrating so like i i did a show i did special report on friday and we do this thing winners and losers at the end and i had as my losers for the week terrorist sympathizers Yeah.

48:39Like these kids that are out there claiming that this is about a genocide or whatever it is. Like if you think in any way that a world without Sinwar is problematic, there's something problematic with you. And I'm not even sure we really want your vote. Now, when we lose by 2000 votes, I'll probably take that back and say I would have loved to have had your support for that. But I think it's definitely a good thing that it happened, and it has put Netanyahu in a different light. I feel he's almost moved to being a wartime president for the first time. His popularity has changed. Yeah. But if he overplays his hand, I think it was something in one of the strikes, 87 people in Beirut were killed, innocent who were not terrorists, not involved at all.

49:28You get a headline like that, and people say there has to be a better way to do this. Now, I know on a historical level, he's still running a pinpoint accurate operation. But that is compelling to people. You see, you know, tiny innocent bodies blown up. And you think, what did they do to you? Yep. We've gotten a lot of criticism online. A lot of people say, you might be raging, but you're not moderates. Scott loves the comments. Yeah, I look at the comments. He's in it all the time. Everyone's addicted to something. I'm addicted to the affirmation of strangers. It's pathetic, but I'm working on it.

50:02So we wanted to do endorsements. And my understanding, and none of this is going to come as a surprise to anybody, but my understanding is you're not allowed to do an official endorsement. Is that correct? Everyone knows how I am voting, but I don't free it. I am happy to talk about why Kamala Harris will be the best president you've ever seen in your life. It's not the same way that you're going to do it, but do your thing and then I'll talk my way through. All right, I'll go. So, I think a lot about young men, right? So, if you look globally, the group that's ascended the fastest is women. It's fantastic.

50:37There are more women globally seeking tertiary education now than men. That's a wonderful thing. In the U.S., more single women-owned homes than single men, three to two college graduates. Globally, you've seen a doubling of the number of women elected to parliament in the last 30 years. We've never seen an ascent of a demographic globally this violent and this wonderful, and that's a collective victory for all of us. And we should do nothing to get in the way of that. At the same time, the group that has fallen furthest the fastest in the United States is young men. Four times as likely to kill themselves, three times as likely to be addicted, 12 times as likely to be incarcerated.

51:14So you have an entire cohort of young men that aren't engaging with relationships, they're not engaging with school. Three million able-bodied men under the age of 40 aren't even seeking employment. They've just given up on employment. So they're not engaging with work, school, relationships. And so I think about, and also just very strategically, I think that young men are some of the last swing voters left. We talk about swing states. It's not swing states. It's swing counties. It's not really swing counties. It's swing voters. And I think young men are still some of the last available swing voters.

51:45Specifically, a lot of young men are sort of like maybe going to vote, maybe not. And also, they're not as Neanderthal knuckles dragging along the ground as people would think. Young men actually believe in gender equality. It's whether or not they actually turn out. And if Democrats don't get a disproportionate number of young people to vote for them, they're going to lose the election. So my endorsement is, if you will, through the lens of a young man. And the way I think about it is it's really good and important to have a code to guide you. Some people get it from religion. Some people get it from their work.

52:20Some people get it from their school. Some people get it by joining the Marines and adopting that code. But I think as a young man, you need a code. And I've been thinking a lot about masculinity. And this is where some people get very uncomfortable. I think masculinity can be a great code in an aspirational way for young men. And that is the following. I think that a decent proxy for masculinity is provider, protector, and procreator. And so let's go through each of those and why I think Harris would be the right or the best candidate. Provider. You can be good in a country with low growth. You can be good in Britain right now.

52:59But the fact that the country hasn't grown in five years because of terrible economic policies, it is difficult to be a good provider. So you want a context where you can have a job, have good economic growth, and quite frankly, do well and be a provider. And I think every man should start from the viewpoint of I'm going to take economic responsibility for my household. And sometimes that means getting out of the way of your partner who's better at that money thing than you are and being more supportive, as I like to think I was, as my partner was working at Goldman Sachs and making a lot more money than I was at the time.

53:32But I think it's a good standpoint to start from, I'm going to be an economic provider here. And the reality is three quarters of women say economic viability is really important in a mate. It's only one quarter for men. So if you want to be taken seriously in our economy, and I'm not to our nation, I'm not talking about what should be, I'm talking about what is. Young men need to aspire to be good providers. You're going to have an easier time as a young man being a provider, I believe, in an economic environment based on the Harris plan. We have so far, if you think it's most likely going to be a continuation of the current policies, we have the lowest inflation of any G7 country while having the strongest growth.

54:11We are at full employment. We have the lowest unemployment since 1968. We have had 71 record highs in the market. We have added more shareholder value just with AI in this nation in the last 18 months than the entire global auto industry since the inception of the auto industry. The fact that these algorithms are trying to convince young people that this economy is awful, there are 190 sovereign nations in the world. 189 would trade places with us. China has lost$3 trillion in market capitalization over the last three years. We've gained$5 trillion in the last seven. This economy is on fire. Now, similar to the future, it's here.

54:53Prosperity is here. It's just not evenly distributed. A lot of people are struggling, but unfortunately, there's this dynamic where when your salary goes up 10 percent, you think it's your grid and character. But when diapers go up 4 percent, you blame the Harris and Biden administration. This economy will be much stronger. Your ability to be a good provider is much more likely with Harris's economic plan. Protection should be the default setting for people. And I think Democrats, specifically Vice President Wallace, does a great job. And if we want to have more young people pairing up, having sex, finding relationships, and having deep and meaningful families, we need to encourage people to connect both emotionally, mentally, and physically.

55:39And women are going to stop for good reason if they maintain this type of risk, if we continue down this perverted track of taking bodily autonomy away from women. In sum, in sum, I can guarantee all young men listening to this podcast that you porn is bested by your porn. And my advice to you is to get out, get your shit together, make yourself more attracted to women or attractive to women, pursue sex, establish relationships, and be a protector and a provider. And I think all of those things around a code for masculinity are much better served in a Harris administration than this weird, unhealthy version of the manosphere that is being projected on the right.

56:29So with that, I am endorsing Vice President Harris and Governor Walz for president.

56:42All right, folks, that's it for tonight. Thank you for joining us tonight. And special thanks to Maxwell for hosting us. Thanks. Big shout out to Maxwell. Our producers are Caroline Chagrin and David Toledo. Our technical director is Drew Burrows. Please follow Raging Moderates wherever you get your podcasts. That's right. Raging Moderates has its very own feed. What a thrill. Drinks on Jessica. Thank you for your time.