Raging Moderates - The Final Stretch and What To Look for on Election Night

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1:23Download today. Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Skye Galloway. And I'm Jessica Tarlov. How are you, Jess? I'm really good. How are you? I don't believe you. No, it's true. My algorithm doesn't hate me anymore. I'm like coconut pilled again. I'm having the best time. I don't know if Elon just wants to spare me or what, but no, it's genuine. So I can't tell if this election that I'm now older and wiser in this election really is that consequential. And there's real reason to be stressed. Or I'm just older and stressed over anything. And I found the only thing that helps is I listen to 80s music that plays over like Peanuts cartoons.

2:10That really calms me down, especially The Cure and all the Peanuts characters dancing. That brings me a moment of calm. Also, The Traveling Wilburys, strangely enough. Their music seems to calm me. Okay, in today's episode of Raging Moderates, we're discussing what the campaign trail looked like during the final week, what to watch out for on election night, and of course, we'll wrap up with our final predictions. The thing that has absolutely blown my mind is that poll that came out of Iowa. Yeah. And actually, I'm going to let you take this because you're the pollster and you're so much better at this than me, but explain for the listeners why that is significant and what it is.

2:48Well, I wouldn't say that I'm better at it than you. And I'm interested in your thoughts because I feel like I spend too much time cross tab diving or whatever it's called. But Jayanne Selzer, who is the pollster there in Iowa, is widely considered one of the top pollsters in the country, certainly the top one in Iowa and probably the top one in the country for most people. And I think there is going to be, depending on the outcome, Tuesday night, there is going to be another reckoning with the polling industry that seems to have been, quote unquote, hurting all of these polls. Like no one wants to be an outlier in any way.

3:27So they're just telling us in like 50 different languages, this thing is really tight. This thing is tied. Maybe it's one point advantage this way, one point the other way. And Ann Selzer comes out with her final Iowa poll that has Kamala Harris up three in Iowa. Iowa, yeah. In Iowa. So Donald Trump won Iowa in 2020 by eight points. So this is a significant swing. And I think he was up like 18 on Biden before Biden left the race, which is not that surprising because a lot of people felt like Biden should have left the race. So maybe then you take it down to, in actuality, he would be like up eight to 10, something that you would feel is more normal.

4:09But this is a complete earthquake in the polling conversation. A lot of people want to dismiss it, but most of the pollsters and commentators who know what they're talking about are looking at this as a harbinger of a trend. So even if Donald Trump wins by five points, let's say she's eight points off on this, that's still a really shitty result for Donald Trump and what he needs in all of this. And it would be indicative of the fact that Harris should be winning Wisconsin and Michigan and probably Pennsylvania. And the big underlying story in the poll was the gender gap, which we've been talking about a lot.

4:47Harris up 20 with women, up 28 points with women who are affiliated with no party, who are quote unquote independents. But the thing that was blowing everyone's mind is the granny gap. So Harris is up two to one with seniors, with female seniors. And she did a ton of interviews over the weekend. She was on with Tim Miller on the Bulwark podcast. And I would really recommend everyone listen to it if you're interested in getting to know her a little bit better and hearing a deeper dive into the methodology. But she was talking about how Iowa's abortion ban came into effect. So it was litigated through the courts and it actually was implemented over the summer.

5:28So this is fresh in people's minds. She said these older women are not only looking at a world where their daughters and their granddaughters are less free than they were, which frankly pisses anyone one-off, right? No matter what the subject is, you know, abortion, a health care issue or otherwise. But what was really interesting is this line between what people think of as abortion, typically pro-life people, and what people think of as health care. And now that we live in a world where you can have a miscarriage and be denied care for that, people are saying, like, how dare you lump this in with abortion?

6:07And Iowa has this very restrictive ban that came into effect just a few months ago. And there are other factors that could be playing into this, like tariffs have hurt farmers really hard. It started under Trump and frankly did continue under Biden, the soybean farmers in particular. And one kind of wild card in this that I was wondering if you thought had any impact is Tim Walz, because you would think that Tim Walz would be someone that was very resonant with an Iowa voting base. And if they thought maybe Kamala was a San Francisco lefty, that Walls would have felt like a moderating factor in all of this.

6:46But net-net, my mind is blown. And what was really interesting for those who want to dismiss it, and I brought it up yesterday. I was on Fox a couple times on Sunday. We did normal programming in the lead-up to the election. There was a poll out that Trump is only up five in Kansas, only up three in Ohio and in Nebraska's second congressional district. You know how there's one vote in Nebraska that is separate. Kamala's up 12 and I believe Biden only won it by seven or eight. So that speaks to a regional shift versus just Ann Selzer is out over her skis. What do you think about all of the things that I said?

7:25So. First off, I think there's more than a kernel, a bushel of truth and everything you believe and that I believe. The issue is we are absolutely cherry picking data that makes us feel better about ourselves or better about our views. That's fine. It's our show. That's right. It's confirmation bias gone crazy. So it wasn't the Iowa poll. It was that this woman, Ann Selzer, who is from the heartland, she doesn't live in LA or New York, and has this annoying habit of being remarkably correct with her polls, arguably the best pollster in the nation. And she caught Obama's rise and Trump's rise. Yeah.

8:05And doesn't appear to have a bias, appears to be doing what she's supposed to be doing. And for Harris to be up three or four in a, that would be like if all of a sudden a poll came out in Florida and showed Harris up by almost outside the margin of error. And if this in any way is a harbinger of what's going on, it's just exceptionally good news. And then I look at Holly Market. I was going to, and I'm still trying to, I'm thinking about doing it today, but I want to make Wednesday morning either really good or really bad for me. So I am going to wager a significant amount of money for me on Harris.

8:44One, because I do think she's going to win. But two, supposedly, I know a lot of media is looking at this thing, And I like the idea of giving her a little bit of a bump. And also, I think I told you this, she is on a risk-adjusted basis just a great bet right now. Because if you assume it's a coin flip, right now the odds are 39.6 % likelihood that she wins. Meaning to get a million dollars back, you have to bet$396 ,000. Now, if I'd had bigger balls last week, and I'd done this last week, when I said I was going to do it, I would have only needed to wager$333 ,000, and I would have got three to one.

9:21I would have got a million bucks back. Now, her odds have dramatically increased on Polly Margaret, which I think has an underlying bias because the people who are likely going to go on an online gambling site are younger and more male, i.e. more Trump. But the fact that even these sites are seeing momentum with her, Iowa is big. And the thing that But we talked about Tony Hinchcliffe, the thing you mentioned, I heard that we have 300 ,000 people in swing states doing what I love the term you use, souls to polls, helping people get to the ballot box and that they have somewhere between 30 and 50 ,000.

9:57So we're running somewhere between six and 10 to one in terms of actual ground game in these swing states. And then, and I mentioned this last time, my friend Whitney Tilson says all of his friends on the ground are saying that the Latino vote is more energized. Guys, the thing you haven't mentioned that I think is going to play a role is in not one, not even two, but three of the most recent Trump appearances. It feels as if in the last three months he has aged 10 years. The last one I saw of him, he had that. When I saw, remember when Joe Biden popped up to do the stupid garbage comment? First up, I'm like, oh, wait, I forgot.

10:38Joe's still here. and he it was if he was sending a video to his grandkids as he was going into hospice. I'm like, Jesus Christ, this guy's dying. We made the right decision. Oh, unfortunately, we made it six months too late, in my view. But anyways, or maybe six months too late. But Trump in that last rally, he looked adled. He looked weak. He's getting that weak breath, weak voice. Maybe he's just exhausted. I don't know. It doesn't matter. But he has always presented himself as much more robust. Fairly, he comes across as more robust as Biden. But the last few times I've seen him speak, America has basically said, we'll take obnoxious, we'll take offensive, we'll take whatever it is, someone whose policies we won't agree with on the Biden side, what we will not tolerate is old and weak.

11:34That's it. That's what kicked Biden out of the race, came across as old and weak. It feels like the momentum huge through the debate and the momentum flipped back to Trump dramatically over the ensuing three weeks. And I would argue in the last 96 hours, maybe the last five days, it feels like the momentum has swung back substantially towards Harris. And I can't tell if the only people I I know knocking on doors are Harris people reporting back positive news that I want to hear. But and that my algorithm is just serving me the shit I want to see. I went on Diary of a CEO with Stephen Bartlett, who's the biggest podcaster in the UK and just this incredibly impressive young man to talk about the election.

12:19And the comments, it was just 10 to 1 people railing against me. You know, the same comments they give to us. These people are not moderates. The last week has been all Kamala. Also, even did you see the SNL sketch? yeah i thought i thought she was so charming and funny and kudos to them kudos to the writers who figured i mean these people naturally aren't that funny themselves some of them are i thought actually obama had decent uh instincts around humor but the writers i get you get the sense spoiler alert that snl writers are probably pretty regressive and that they sat down and they said all right this shit is serious we have got to make our likable intelligent and it's got to be funny yet poignant and they just nailed it i mean they just nailed it she came across as likable funny poking fun at herself but not enough while depositioning trump and uh keep kamala and carry on a lot i mean it just give me your pamela oh my gosh that was it was it was wonderful i keep hearing about the ground game every time i see him i think wow he looks older and older and older Yeah, I think the SNL moment was definitely worth the FCC violation.

13:31So NBC had to give Trump, I think, like a minute and a half commercial during a car race yesterday or something like that. I don't think they care. OK, let's take a quick break. Stay with us.

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15:12Welcome back. We, of course, had a great guest because I believe you know him or are friends with him. we had Charlemagne the God on. Let's hear a quick clip from that appearance with Charlemagne the God. You know how many people I run into every day who literally have not heard 95 % of the crazy rhetoric that has come out of Trump's mouth or come out of people in his camp's mouth? And so it's like, you should keep putting that in people's face to let folks know what he's saying, what he's planning to do. And you should keep drilling home your message, your plan for the economy, like, you know, especially her, because she's only been running for 100 days.

15:52So to find the rest of that interview, type in Raging Moderates wherever you get your podcasts and hit follow. We have more election coverage coming out, so please subscribe so you don't miss an episode. All right, enough of the mid-pod ad. Jess, let's get on with the show. So both campaigns have been crisscrossing across battleground states. We had Harris wrapping up her message on the ellipse and appearing on SNL. Biden making a gaffe that Republicans jumped all over. Trump dressing up on Halloween as a garbage truck driver and RFK Jr. declaring he's going to take charge of vaccines and food safety, which I saw again is yet another unforced error.

16:28What other moments are, are there any other moments than these that stand out to you? And do any of these moments, do you think, make a difference? I mean, those were the big ones. Obviously, if you don't want to get into the minutiae of the specific things that he said at a rally, you know, the Giannis Antetokounmpo lines. I do think that the prominent role of RFK in health and safety is something that low-key matters a lot to people. And I think that because they are the island of misfit toys, which I know is how you describe your business as well. My staff, not my business, my staff. Oh, your staff.

17:05Yeah, yeah. Well, I don't see them that way, by the way. They seem— Oh, you don't know them. You don't know them. I'll get to know them. It's like the functional family. And then I'll get back to you. The functional families, you know, are the dysfunctional ones. I always say in our reviews that this person isn't doing this well. And I'm like, if they could do this well, they'd be working at Google, not for you, here at this Joey Bag of Donuts podcast. Anyways, love my staff. Love my staff. Go ahead. So because you have this wild cast of characters and you can't get a lot of the people that you would want to be out there, you end up with a showcase that has Dana White, Hulk Hogan, RFK Jr., Tulsi Gabbard, etc.

17:45And I think for a certain piece of the base, that's really resonant. But RFK Jr. for a normal person is really like anathema. Yeah. You know, because he's not even representing a departure from the Democratic Party that I think is resonant with a lot of people. The reasons that it happened, for instance, because he holds these kinds of beliefs about health because of what a terrible person he has been morally himself and what he put his wife, former wife through and ended up resulting in her suicide. and just the weird stuff, right? Like having a whale head strapped to the top of his station wagon and dead bear cubs in Central Park, et cetera.

18:30And I think that, you know, Trump this time around can't say, I'll be surrounded by great people because 40 out of 44 cabinet secretaries have said that they're not for Trump anymore. So then you think, okay, well, maybe there's this other layer of, like, not the worst people in the world, but kind of okay people that might go into the administration. And listen, people love a fancy title. I'm sure he will be able to get some good people from the business community to go work for him, people who have served the country and feel that this is their patriotic duty. But RFK Jr.'s views on vaccines and health and safety are so far outside the mainstream.

19:12I mean, did you see the latest one that he wants to remove fluoride from the water? Drinking water says it causes cancer, yeah. Yeah. Not only does it does water turn frogs trans or something like that. Now we want to get fluoride out of our water. And Tim Scott was being interviewed, the senator from South Carolina, and he was asked about this. And he tried to do the usual dance of like, oh, you know, I don't know. I don't know what you're talking about, blah, blah, blah. And it turns out that he co-sponsored a bill to make sure that there was fluoride in water in underserved communities in 2018.

19:43Because guess what? Fluoride is really important. You know, I take a two and a half year old to the dentist. They start talking to you about fluoride at one, right? And I think that it will really hurt Trump's candidacy to have that be someone that we can identify as a harbinger of quote unquote professionalism that he would have in there. And then to add to it that he would also be in charge of women's health, which is frightening to have someone who's so, first of all, disrespectful towards women anyway. But this weird pro-life Democrat, sometimes he used to be pro-choice. I guess he says that he's pro-life now.

20:25But someone who has never taken any interest in this issue whatsoever or moderated the party on it since he switched over. I thought that was another tactical error. I thought he should have said we're going to put him on something around the environment. Well, he's actually— Actually, yes. He believes in climate change. Yeah. He has some good—yeah. He's good around the environment. It would soften his position. I forget. Who was the guest when you and I were panelists on Bill Maher together, which is how we met, how I fell in love with Jess Tarlov? Who was our guest? Who was the third person or the person?

21:01It was Cuomo and Melissa DeRosa. Oh, and then you bailed, right? For the interview. It was when Mar, it's still only two people. It was like post-COVID, so it was only us on the panel. Yeah, but it's still only two. That was easily like the most impossible. I had to sit around and talk about post-COVID with the guy who, with Cuomo as you started his apology tour. That was the most uncomfortable TV I think I've ever, and you got to bail because whatever Fox doesn't want it on CNN. Anyway. It's Melissa DeRosa, who worked for Cuomo as the other person. Yeah, who worked for him. I didn't understand the whole thing.

21:35They were promoting a book. It was a thing. Yeah. And I said, oh, anyways. But I met RFK Jr. backstage. He's very handsome. He's very charming. He's very likable. And he started texting, can I come on your pod? And I thought, well, yeah, sure, why not? And I checked with the team. And the team was a resounding no. We're not going to platform this guy. And I think they made that, you know, my island here is the wisdom of crowds. It's always good for me to check in because occasionally or actually quite frequently they get it right and I get it wrong. And he seems like he's just gotten crazier. And the interesting thing, the reason I bring it up is that he was the guest.

22:15He did the long form interview up front. And I thought Bill Maher tried to be as kind as possible, but asked hard questions and tore him limb from limb. Just made him look like an idiot, in my opinion. and just pointed out inconsistencies left and right. And then RFK Jr., you know, he's supposed to come out for the conversation afterwards. He didn't come out. He refused to come out. Really? Oh, I didn't know that. Yeah, he didn't come out. He was supposed to come out. So he's a baby on top of it. Well, his comms person, and what's interesting is just a couple days ago, I got a text message from his comms person saying, we need to speak.

22:49And I'm like, I immediately texted back, what's up? And I haven't heard back from him. But I can't imagine. I have no idea what they want from me. Anyways, this is, again, another another absolutely unforced. Unforced error. Unforced error. So they're they're pivoting through the swing states here. Do you think there's anything if you're advising them? I mean, this is pretty much it. This is go time, right? Yeah. I mean, it's election day. If you were advising either the candidates anything they should do tomorrow to put a cherry on the top, or is it kind of like the ball is out of their hands?

23:22I mean, I think for Trump, he is facing, as you said, a rally scene that is not tip top. You know, it's emptier. People are less engaged and he he is descending a bit. And if he can muster a few lines of unity or even recentering around his economic message. I mean, that has been the big problem here. She has totally matched him in terms of who's best to handle the economy because he won't talk about anything normal. Right. He's advertising on anti-trans issues and he's giving no specifics on his economic plan anyway when he does talk about it. So I would say to him, if you could do all of your rallies and really be talking about the economy, that would be best for you.

24:07For Kamala, you know, she can only do with what has been working for her, staying on message. And I did love that line that she had to Charlemagne when she did the town hall with him, where he said, you know, there are people who say you're relentlessly on message. You stick to your script. You can't weave it all or whatever. And she said, I say you're welcome. That's my response to you. You know, you want somebody that understands why they're there. They're there to help the American people. These are the ways that I'm going to do it. So I want her to stick to that message. But I do love when she, first of all, like genuinely asks people for their vote.

24:45I have found it to be one of her more compelling sides where she says I'm taking nothing for granted and I'm here asking for your vote. And I want more as many of those human moments as possible in the last few hours of all of this where she says I know that we are building a coalition of people who are strange bedfellows. You know that we have these Republicans like you have Liz Cheney and AOC backing the same ticket. That's rare. and that she will be a president for all Americans and that her cabinet will reflect that and that she is not too prideful to change the way that she thinks about things and to take advice from people that she wouldn't typically do so.

25:29And I want to hear that kind of stuff because I think people are looking for the reassurance that if they've gone out on a limb, like if you are a Republican in Iowa that is going to end up with a Kamala Harris presidency. You have gone out on a limb to do that. And she really needs to continue talking about how she's going to meet them in the middle and respects what they've done. Before we break, just a quick review of the most recent New York Times-Santa College poll. In Nevada, the New York Times-Santa poll has Harris up by three. In North Carolina, Harris up by two. Wisconsin, Harris up by two.