Raging Moderates - The Final Week, John Kelly's Warning, and the Battle for Congress

26:11I think it's a huge mistake for her not to have done that. And then I had this weird triggering moment when I listened to that clip. And that is he described his son. He said, so I have a son who's very smart and tall. And I thought, as a father, I would just never. And tall, like, who cares? That is like the last way I would describe my son. I wouldn't. Well, he's obsessed with physicality. It's just so weird to say that, you know, I have. I mean, he's like 6 '9". He's like really tall. It'd be cooler if he was a basketball player and you say, oh, he's really tall. He's a basketball player. Yeah, and he's at NYU, and I'm happy he's there.

26:50I hope he has a wonderful experience. But I thought, this guy just, his approach to fathering, I just found it so weird that dad would describe his son that way. Anyways. What did you can I just quickly before we get off this? So he I mean, three hours again, a lot of opportunity to weave, but he did a lot of historical stuff. So he was wrong about which son of Lincoln's died. But he's talking about like McKinley and origins of tariffs. and I couldn't really follow a ton of it, but I wonder if that does make a low information voter think this guy knows more about what he's talking about than he actually does, that you can even like throw these names into it.

27:33Because you know how sometimes when you're so overwhelmed and the zone is so proverbially flooded by things that you just hear a few things and you assume that someone gets it or knows what they're talking about? Look, I hate to admit it. I didn't listen to all three hours. And that's the reason I don't listen to Rogan or Lex Friedman. And they're kind of the original gangsters. They're both fantastic at what they do. And I've said, despite that, I don't agree with a lot of Joe's comments. Every podcaster should send a royalty into Rogan because he's kind of busted open the medium. but on the whole he that was a big win for him because get him put putting him in a relaxed atmosphere he it softens his image and he needs that right now he comes across as the kind of guy at least i thought trump came across as the kind of guy one i thought he came across as old and adled and not having any sense of history or clearly has not only doesn't fact check himself but doesn't think anyone's going to fact check him that will have any importance that he can just say whatever he wants.

28:35But he came across as a guy you could grab a beer with. He came across, in my opinion, as more likable. He did at one point kind of laugh at himself. The data itself or the historical inaccuracies were just everywhere, but it doesn't seem to matter. And Van Jones had kind of the right, I mean, and Michelle Obama brought it up as well, but Van Jones did it first on CNN. You know, he's lawless and she's expected to be flawless. This is the mother of all grading on a curve that is entirely different. It is just, I mean, she's just, everyone is waiting. And again, Michelle was so powerful. Everyone's waiting to parse every word she says on an interview.

29:23And then he gets up and says shit that's just blatantly wrong and weird and never happened or goes off on a crazy tangent or says, I don't want to answer questions. Let's listen to music. If she did any of the things he does in any interview, it would be like Democrats and the press would be like, oh my God, she's lost it. She's lost. The Harris campaign is absolutely screwed up. Absolutely screwed up, not going on Rogan. It would have been a huge win for the last thing he was going to do would be to go after the democratic female candidate of color. He just wouldn't have gone there. And in general, Joe does try to give people some running room and give them, in my opinion, he gives them too much the benefit of the doubt when he brings on a total fucking quack to say that mRNA vaccines alter your DNA.

30:13He doesn't say, well, is there any peer reviewed research that says there's any veracity to that statement? I don't know if you knew this, I actually pulled my pilot off of Spotify for a year. I was so triggered by the whole thing. But anyways, enough virtue signaling. I think it was a win for him. I think it was a win for him. Definitely. And a good part of the closing argument, which obviously the MSG rally was, and Kamala will be doing this speech at the ellipse, clearly making, you know, protecting democracy at the core of her close. I personally would have preferred her to go to an auto factory in Michigan or even a hospital, you know, to talk about health care, the people who really keep the country going.

30:53But obviously, this is a calculated decision that they've made. I think that those persuadable, right-leaning indies and Republicans are more into protecting democracy. But what do you think about that? I think you're absolutely right. I think one of the biggest mistakes we as Democrats keep making is that we keep thinking if we keep talking about what's wrong with him, it'll work. Yeah. That strategy has not worked. She needs to talk about what's right with her. And that is the The policy around Medicare, such that your parents can die at home, the policies around lack of tariffs, the first home buyers.

31:28She needs to play offense around why you should vote for me as opposed to why you should not vote for him. I agree with you. I think she should have made an economic argument at the end and talk about her policy. The other kind of news, and I'll obviously give you my view up front, I don't think it's big news, if you will, is last week Trump's longest serving chief of staff, retired Marine General John Kelly, told the New York Times that in his view, Trump would govern like a dictator if reelected. Let's listen to some of the audio that was released. Do you think he's a fascist? Well, I'm looking at the definition of fascism.

32:06it's a far-right authoritarian ultra-nationalist political ideology and movement characterized by a dictatorial leader centralized hypocrisy militarism forcible suppression of opposition belief in a natural social hierarchy um so certainly in my experience those are the kind of things that he thinks will work better in terms of running America. Well, I have a couple of questions here for you, Jess. First is, you know, I would not agree with General Kelly's policies, I would bet, but it's just weird we can't get guys like that to run for president. I mean, he's clearly just so knowledgeable and thoughtful and measured.

32:54Do you think this is damaging for Trump that Kelly has come out and said this? I think it's always a problem if somebody that respected and we should be honest about this. I mean, Trump's team, the ones who are still loyal to him, have come out and say he hated him from the start. He has always been insubordinate, which is, you know, you're calling a four star Marine general insubordinate. it, but that he had an ax to grind and this is all made up and has gotten a lot of quite credible people actually to disparage Mark Milley and John Kelly. But I think it can't ever be good for you that you have people on the record.

33:33And this isn't the Murmurs campaign anymore. John Kelly sat down with Michael Schmidt at The Times and said this stuff on audio. And Kamala can use it in that way. And that can make it even more powerful because, I mean, this was a fight I was having on The five with my colleagues on Friday about the fascism thing. They said, she's calling him a fascist. I said, no, John Kelly in his voice is calling him a fascist. And I do think if these late breakers, the only undecideds left are people that are partial to this argument that this guy doesn't care about the constitution. He doesn't care how you vote.

34:10And there's a ton of evidence that what they are doing right now, even in like what Tucker Carlson said in the MSG rally, that they are making it seem as though his win is so clearly ordained that anything but a Trump victory will be fraud and that you will have to rise up to take your country back. The groundwork for that is happening. And I think we've been talking about this for weeks. That's part of the complacency as well with the get out the vote operation, you know, giving it to Scott Pressler and Charlie Kirk. You know, we're knocking on a million doors and they're listening to Rogan. It's a very different world in terms of how this is campaigning.

34:52So, not that I think it's always bad to be called a fascist, but I do think it stands that people, it's you're hard pressed to move people about how they feel about Donald Trump at this point. The Trump campaign responded by Colin Kelly's claims, debunked stories and accusing him of having Trump derangement syndrome. By the way, I've been called that. I've been accused of that a lot. Do you get accused of that? Yeah, I have TDS so bad. Everywhere, everywhere. Do I need antibiotics anyways? No, libtards. We'll be fine. Don't worry. There you go. Meanwhile, Harris sees the moment to focus on democracy, targeting Republicans who may be wavering on Trump.

35:28I personally, unfortunately, I think this is a big nothing burger. I think people are so used to, I think four of his 44 former secretaries or cabinet members are supporting him. The notion that these folks aren't supporting him is something that's already been absorbed into the ecosystem. I thought the most interesting part of this is I like a sexy Jake Tapper. I like him salty. Did you see him with Senator Vance? Yeah, and Mike Johnson the weekend before. Yeah, he was not taking it from Senator Vance. I thought, I'm really like, I'm like, Jake, you big slice of man. He had some of that Tom Selleck fire in him.

36:09Put a mustache on that guy. And my gosh, what did you think of that? Did you what did you think of that interview? I thought it was great. And I mean, it's so clear now that the only way to be able to do this effectively is to use their own words against them or people's own words like Mike Johnson the weekend before. You know, Trump does the Arnold Palmer's big downstairs thing. And Mike Johnson, like, I don't know what you're trying to do. Tapper's like, OK, well, I'll just play it for you. Right. You just sit there and I will just play this for you. Yeah. Just to watch people squirm. I think almost the optics of it oftentimes matter more than the words where you see how visibly uncomfortable.

36:50And you remember back to the early days of Trump, even with people like Ted Cruz, right? Marco Rubio, Lindsey Graham, where they just can't like their skin is crawling and you can see it under their suits, right? Like trying to be freed from how bad this is. So I think it's a very effective way to interview. And what you should be doing. I mean, Brett did it with Kamala. He did it with Trump last year or two years ago when he said, here's everything that people who worked for you said about you. How do you explain that? Can they all be wrong? To your point that only four are still supporting him.

37:23But with eight days left, I worry that nothing matters except knocking on doors and doing souls to the poles and making sure that you're energizing the communities that need to turn out. I don't know. Kamala spent all day yesterday in Philadelphia. She went to church there. She crisscrossed throughout all the neighborhoods, some very emotional and sweet scenes of women embracing her and crying, you know, feeling like it's not going to be okay this time around, especially because he's a lame duck, right? Like, there's no third Trump term. Well, I mean, knock on wood, whatever. Liz Cheney would say he'd probably try to find a way.

38:02But people have this feeling of desperation that there will be no guardrails and you will get no John Kellys that will work for him again. Mark Milley is sipping Coronas on a beach somewhere, right? He's like, I am done with this. And so who will staff this government? Stephen Miller and Tony Hinchcliffe? Yeah, I agree with you. I think at this point, I love that. Souls to the polls. Feet on the street, if you will. All right, Jess. Let's take a quick break. Stay with us.

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40:02Terms apply. New episodes Tuesdays. Welcome back. So far, we've focused mostly on the presidential race, but control of the House and Senate is also on the line and could have a huge impact on whoever wins the presidency. Let's dive into the Senate. Do you think the Democrats can hold onto the Senate? Which key races are you watching? So, no, I don't. I'm resigned to it. John Tester is fabulous, but feels a little done, even with that crazy story that Chi, who is running against, lied about where he got shot. He said he got shot in Afghanistan, but it was actually in a parking lot, like outside of a national park, which you would think would be completely upending.

40:46Right. Yeah, that's kind of a key feature of being shot. I was shot in combat. No, I was shot in the parking lot. Right. And we're talking about Tim Walz and the stolen valor, right, of not filling out the right paperwork on time. One of the races I'm really interested to on the Senate. So Colin Allred has been running a fantastic campaign. And I feel like we say this regularly, like, this might be the time we get rid of Ted Cruz. And I don't really think that. But Colin Allred is doing so much better than Beto did with this. I mean, I think it's also just who he is lands better with people. And he's taking on the culture war stuff so brilliantly.

41:26I don't know if I mentioned on the podcast before, but he cut an ad saying he's not for trans women in women's sports. He's just like, I play professional football. This is ludicrous. You know, Ted Cruz is trying to say this about us. And a fun fact, actually, the number one issue that Trump has been advertising on is anti-trans issues. The economy, number five. Trans stuff, number one. So clearly they think they can win a culture war election. Colin Allred is within striking distance. Some polls like two, three points behind. Big deal. Kamala is there. He showed up at that rally, spoke as well.

42:02So Beyonce, Allred, and Kamala, do you think there's any shot or we just keep fantasizing about a world without Ted Cruz? Well, the survey conducted by the New York Times and Senate College shows that Cruz leads with 50 % support to 46 % for Allred. So it's technically still in the margin of error. Yeah. But it feels it feels marginable that or there's a marginal shot here for Allred. Cruz just strikes me as the the vampire of the Senate. It just we can't kill the guy. And he he just feels Texas seems to like him. And the thing is, if Allred lose my sense is Allred has ran almost a near perfect campaign.

42:43The few times I have seen clips, I thought, wow, is this guy good. And Cruz just looks so off his game, like trying to respond to these things. He's put them on his heels every time they get together. He's out of central casting. He's thoughtful. He comes across. I would have thought that the bottom line is if Allred can't beat Cruz, I'm not sure. I think people are just going to give up. I think people are going to, Democrats are going to wait till he dies because I think he's run a great campaign. Or he just needs a bigger podcast deal. The guy wants to be Joe Rogan more than he wants to be a senator.

43:16The other race I want to talk about, and I think if you don't know about this guy, you are going to love him so much, is what's going on in Nebraska. So there's an independent guy named Dan Osborne. He is a veteran. He was a labor leader, a mechanic who was running. He has been a registered independent his whole life. Deb Fischer, sitting Republican senator, two-term. Dan Osborne in the New York Times-Siena poll from Monday is within two points of doing this. Now, Mitch McConnell last minute is having to send in a ton of money. But Dan Osborne, I love this quote, and I thought, like, does this guy listen to Scott or does Scott listen to this guy?

43:52He says, you know what I think it's going to do? This is if he wins. If Nebraska does the right thing and it elects a mechanic to the halls of power, the rest of the country is going to say, holy crap, did you see what Nebraska did? And it's going to tell people who are nurses, teachers, plumbers, carpenters, bus drivers, other mechanics, that you don't have to be a self-funding crypto billionaire to run for office. Yeah, he's very strong. That might be the best. I've already decided that the morning of the 6th, I'm just going to keep refreshing the results on Lake Gallegos just for my own, just to make myself feel better.

44:28Just to feel good. Because it looks like she's on her way. Ruben Gallego's run an amazing campaign, too. We should. I mean, he's running against a lunatic, but he's done a good job like Allred as well. I think he's run a confident campaign. She will lose this election. I mean, A, she's not qualified and B, she's batshit crazy. But anyways, that would be the race you mentioned in Nebraska. That would be super exciting. I'm really disappointed about Senator Tester. I think he's been a really solid. I think he's done a great job of, again, another moderate where there's just no home for this person.

45:04I think he's done a fantastic job and has really been a great senator. So let's get right to it. So we talked a little bit about the Senate. What do you think about Congress? My association, I'm knocking on wood. I don't know if this is real wood or fake wood, but I knocked on it, is that we'll take the House back. And it's cool to be in New York, even though I went and voted on our first day of early voting on Saturday, got my kids those future voter stickers. But, you know, my seat doesn't matter. I'm in Dan Goldman's territory, but a few really exciting races in New York. Arguably, we're the ones that lost it a couple years ago, you know, when George Santos was even able to take a seat.

45:46So I already mentioned Anthony D 'Esposito, who's running, I think it's New York 4. He is down. He hired his mistress and his fiancé's daughter to work, I think, both of them in the same office. Very strange. At the same time? I think so. Great Mormon? Oh, that's wrong. That was wrong. I'm sorry, go ahead. Yeah, that was wrong. I actually was going to try to gloss over it, but you repeated it twice. So he seems to be down pretty significantly. Mike Lawler and Mondaire Jones, that's an interesting race that has a blackface component from Mike Lawler dressing up as Michael Jackson. Mondaire Jones, you know, part of the squad.

46:23So that tension going on. John Avalon running out in, like, the nice, fancy part of the Hamptons and then also more rural Suffolk County has been fascinating. He was down only four in the latest polling. And Mark Molinaro upstate, he only won by 6 ,000 votes as a Republican. So there's potential to take that back. And that's a rematch as well. Yeah, it's going to be. Does it give you any comfort? And I don't want to be a defeatist, but say Trump does emerge as the victor here. Given the map, which was terrible for Democrats this election and would be much better in 2026, and given that traditionally a midterm election typically swings way back towards the party that didn't win the presidency, given that it'll probably be kind of a pretty wonderfully intransigent government, which is the reason we have three branches regardless of what happens, do you think Democrats would have any comfort knowing that most likely 2026 might be a pretty good opportunity to take back control of the Senate and the House if there's a Trump victory?

47:32I mean, sure. Yeah. No, not really.

48:02and things like that. But no, I think that people have woken up. You remember, as Recline reported, after he did the first shot across Biden's bow, where he said, you should go out, then we had the State of the Union. Then he said, oh, maybe I was wrong. Then he was like, oh, I saw the debate. I definitely was right. But he said that he was getting the sense that Democrats actually weren't that scared about another Trump term, that there was a lot of bluster. But in reality, they'd worked with him before in there. Even Bob Casey and Tammy Baldwin have cut ads talking about working with Trump, which obviously signals that they are in A, tight races, but B, that they don't think that this is absolutely the end of the world.

48:44I feel like the energy now is where it should be, and that people aren't being as lax as they were about the Trump threat. Do you feel like the energy is at the level that it should be? So this goes into, I mean, we have to have a, each of us has to have a prediction here or something resembling a prediction and more so than our prediction for the candidate. What is the underlying element or the surprise that might happen here? And I think the energy is very positive for Harris right now, other than, and this, you know, confirmation bias, full disclosure, there are 10 more, 10x the number of feet on the street, getting people to the polls, Democrats versus Republicans.

49:29This election is becoming so tight and the geographic coverage is so tiny in terms of what's going to decide this. It isn't even a small number of swing states. It's a small number of swing counties that I think those feet on the street, this might be the election of podcasts and of feet, of the most analog thing ever. And that is knocking on a door and saying, the election is today, have you voted? Or, you know, it's tomorrow, have you voted? I remember when I was in San Francisco, they somehow knew I hadn't voted and they knocked on my door three times. I mean, they literally shamed me. I was going to vote, but they would, they shamed me until like, they kept showing up saying, you haven't voted yet.

50:07Yeah, let's go now. Do you want to go now? Here's some coffee. Can I hold your hand? Like, you know, and I do think that that might carry us over. And then my, and I'll turn this back to you. And then the other thing that I I think it's the October surprise here. I think you're going to hear the name Tony Hinchcliffe a lot more in the next eight days. And 400 ,000 Puerto Ricans in the swing state can't feel good about the Republican Party right now. I saw this thing and I thought, wow, that is just comedy is the art or art is the ability to get away with it, to say something. And I try to do this.

50:50You try to do it occasionally on The Five with humor. And that is to say something that pushes the envelope, but you soften the beach with comedy. And this was the art of not getting away with it. He said something blatantly racist, and it fell so flat. It didn't land so hard that it was the worst of all worlds for them. It feeds exactly into the fear people have about this administration. And clearly, nobody did the math and said, you realize this is a big constituency in the most important state. So my prediction is that I do like what Michelle Obama said about men need to move to protection.

51:31And are you there to protect us? Two, the feet on the street. And three, I think this Tony Hinchcliffe debacle might, if it gets 3 ,000 people, I mean, that's literally what we're down to at this point. I think those three things are going to potentially, I'm predicting this is not only going to be a win for Harris, it's going to be a decisive win. and that is a huge proximity bias. This is me trying to tell myself, you know, I think I can, I think I can. I'm a brave, strong, you know, when you see those TikToks of the four-year-old girl jumping off something and she's like, I am courageous. I'm strong.

52:13I mean, this is me trying to keep myself sane. But that's my prediction. What are your thoughts eight days out? So I am, like I said, I'm having a more optimistic day and my emotions are all over the place, not to be too female about it, unsurprisingly. I have highs and lows. And it usually depends on my blood sugar. We have those too. No, I know. I just turned to alcohol. But anyways, go ahead. Yeah, I'm trying to avoid that. It's just not great taking care of a baby that way. But we could get there. My prediction is that the shy voter of this election is the right-leaning person. It's not the Trump voter that we had in 2016 and to a lesser degree in 2020, but the right-leaning person who casts a country over party vote.

53:02And there's been a lot of very good journalism from interviews about how many people are saying, I just can't do it. I just can't vote for him in this scenario. I don't love her. I don't necessarily think that I know her that well. And it does keep coming up consistently that not having a good answer on immigration, even if immigration is not your big issue, is something that is very bothersome to people. And for me, you know, diehard Dem, I feel that way as well. I don't know how they haven't figured out something better to say about that. But that people are just going to go in the voting booth and quietly do their business and vote for Kamala.

53:49Kind of what Brett Stevens articulated in his, you know, in the conversation with Gail Collins last weekend when he said it. So I think that in general, Black and Latino men in particular will, quote unquote, come home, that Trump will perform better than he did before, but it won't be these kinds of huge realignments that we had been seeing. But Kamala wins, there will be a much needed autopsy on who the Democratic Party is. Because if we manage to pull this off, if she does win, because we will have won this on the votes of people who are not ours for future elections. If they run a normal Republican again, you know, if it's Glenn Youngkin or somebody, they're not with us anymore.

54:40and we need to do a lot of, you know, good, long, hard thinking about how we have been messaging to men, to minority voters, in some cases, even to women. You should always have the highest goals possible. And I think that I don't want to let, you know, perfect be the enemy of the good. I hope that we have done good enough. But Liz Cheney is a rental. We do not own Liz Cheney. And I think about that a lot. It's funny because I think if Trump wins, the Republican Party is literally going to need to be totally reconfigured. That's what my husband says. He's like, it needs to be blown up. Yeah. They would literally have to go like, OK, the verdict is in.

55:24There's no there's no, you know, turning chicken shit into chicken salad here. This guy is basically taking the Republican Party down when a lot of their issues seem to resonate. And we kicked out all the old line Republicans. What is the new who are the new Republicans? Then J.D. Vance really is the future of the party. That's really interesting. That's really interesting. So I want to read just as we wrap up here. I just want to read some of your quotes. I'm there to represent at least of the voting public, the majority of Americans. Miss Tarlo said over a recent breakfast. We, she meant Democrats in 2020, got 81 million votes.

56:03There are more of me than there are of them. Her goal, she said, is to inject a Democratic perspective into the Fox bloodstream while showing viewers that ideological foes can still get along. I also want to win elections, said Ms. Tarlov, who got her start in politics, working for Douglas Schoen, Shane Schoen, a Democratic pollster. And I think that being on the most watched show is the best place to be. And then you literally, at some point, I mean, I really do like you. You think my mom wrote it? Oh, my God. I got a lot of texts like that. Like, did Judy write this? It's just— But that's—I don't know.

56:45I've made this case, and I think I've persuaded you a bit about it. You know, the undecideds are the ones watching Fox, and that is an important reason to be there. But people want to tune in to see real conversation and to your souls to the polls point, there are more of us. I feel like we run as if there are only like 10 of us and there are a kajillion of them. There are more people that agree with our point of view. So we should be a little bit louder about it and have better media strategy, which we do not. I mean, the right crushes us in terms of that, even though we, quote unquote, own the culture.

57:25no this this thing yeah i just can't get over this even that picture that's a well i don't know if i like i mean it's a lot of hair and makeup but i don't know if the orange tank pantsuit is what i would have gone with that's really that's literally i mean you look great but that i'm not sure so then don't bring me down man that was a great suit that is a that is a pastel power suit if there ever was one that is a secretary clinton suit well you know how i feel about her 3d printed doll your your profile was insanely nice too oh mine was a headpiece compared to this thing literally this is this is if you ever run for president this will be seen as like the the launch article oh my gosh anyways with that we're gonna wrap up here that's all for this episode if you have not read this article and you want to see what it's like what a puff piece is like from everyone's new favorite Democrat, Jess Tarlov, go and just type in the New York Times app, type in Tarlov, that's T-A-R-L-O-V, and you're going to see what it's like to be on the receiving end.

58:28And how good the suit is. Also, the 27th was our one-year anniversary when we were on MAR together. And this piece came out that day. I'm so glad you remembered. I'm so glad you remembered. My husband did, weirdly. He's like, we were on Mar. He didn't say we. He does not think we. He said we were out in L.A. for Mar and you met Scott a year ago today. There you go. It's our one year anniversary, Jess. Yeah, it's been amazing. Who would have thought we'd be here making probably incorrect predictions about all things politics? Yeah, Trump's definitely going to win. Yeah. Yeah, we're going to see.

59:03All right. That's it. That's all for this episode. Thank you for listening to Raging Moderates. Our producers are Caroline Shagrin and David Toledo. Our technical director is Drew Burrows. You can find Raging Moderates on its own feed every Tuesday. That's right. Raging Moderates has its own feed. Please follow us wherever you get your podcast. Jess, have a great rest of the week. You too. Stay stable.

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