Raging Moderates: The Trump Administration Can’t Get Their Iran War Story Straight

0:00Scott Galloway:I'm RJ Decker, a private investigator uncovering the sunshine state's darkest secrets. Tuesdays, it's the premiere of ABC's hottest new crime show. RJ freaking Decker as I live and breathe. He's a private eye. It's not a standard murder. It's someone bigger. And a public mess.

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0:30Jessica Tarlov:This usually shocks people. I have run 27 marathons plus a few ultra marathons, all while fueling my body with plants. Yes, I get plenty of protein. I'm Robin Arson, VP of Fitness Programming and Head Instructor at Peloton. And this week on my podcast, Project Swagger, the fundamentals of a plant-based life with nutritional takeaways for you to apply to your own life, no matter what your preferred diet is. Follow Project Swagger wherever you get your podcasts.

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2:07Scott Galloway:Welcome to Raging Moderates. I'm Scott Galloway.

2:10Jessica Tarlov:And I'm Jessica Tarlov.

2:11Scott Galloway:In today's episode of Raging Moderates, we're discussing why despite Trump saying the war is partially or completely done, he is ramping up military action in Iran. If you aren't already, please make sure to subscribe to our YouTube page to stay in the loop on all the day's political news. All right, let's get into it. 11 days into the war with Iran, and the message from Trump is, quite frankly, just all over the place. On Monday, the peacetime president suggested the conflict might be wrapping up soon, saying the U.S. and Israel are very far ahead of schedule. Well, can you share that schedule with us, boss?

2:46Scott Galloway:Anyways, markets briefly breed the cyber relief, but hours later, Trump warned that if Iran threatens global energy supplies, the U.S. would respond so forcefully, the region would, open quote, never recover. Meanwhile, shipping through the Straits of Hormuz, one of the most important oil choke points in the world, is heavily disrupted. So even as Trump talks about victory being close, the actual endgame of the war and the pain it's causing for Americans is still pretty unclear. Let's watch a moment from the presser yesterday giving mixed signals. Mr. President, you've said the war is, quote, very complete, but your defense secretary says this is just the beginning.

3:25Scott Galloway:So which is it and how long should Americans be? Well, I think it's the beginning. It's the beginning of building a new country, but they certainly they have no Navy. They have no Air Force. They have no anti-aircraft equipment. It's all been blown up. They have no radar. They have no telecommunications. and they have no leadership. It's all gone. So, you know, you could look at that statement. We could call it a tremendous success right now as we leave here, I could call it, or we could go further, and we're going to go further.

3:59Jessica Tarlov:Crazy like a fox, right? I love that he's saying it's a totally new country, but that it's just being run by the 56-year-old son of the guy that you took out, who actually is more extreme and has a legitimate axe to grind that you killed his entire family on top of the beliefs that he already had. Trump was so all over in this press conference, and I want to talk about it. But I also want to bring what Marco Rubio said yesterday into the conversation, because watching the goalposts shifting in real time is astounding.

4:32Scott Galloway:The goals of this mission are clear, and it's important to continue to remind the American people of why it is that the greatest military in the history of the world is engaged in this operation. It is to destroy the ability of this regime to launch missiles, both by destroying their missiles and their launchers, destroy the factories that make these missiles and destroy their navy.

4:51Jessica Tarlov:Doesn't mention removing the regime, doesn't talk about the nuclear program, no mention of destroying Iran's ability to project power via proxy forces. We're not talking about Hezbollah or Hamas or anything anymore. So they're trying to just clean up their toys and go, right? Like, Because they can't do what they set out to do, and they just fed us a bunch of talking points about how it actually would be a completely new country, how we would be supporting these oppressed people who, by the way, we don't see any rallies in the streets saying, America, come help us. We just see death to America, death to Israel.

5:26Jessica Tarlov:And we know that between 1 ,000 and 1 ,300 innocent Iranians have been killed at this point. It feels like, except for taking out the Navy, they've taken down, I think, 42 major Iranian vessels. Smaller ships has been not as much of the priority, but the Navy part of that is definitely true. But they're still producing drones like they were before. And now Rubio is telling us that none of the story that we were sold is actually what we're going to get out of this. Yeah, there's, it's like, what boxes are we looking to check here? It's not even about mission accomplished.

6:04Scott Galloway:It's what is the mission. And we are on the precipice of potentially losing what was, I would argue, the biggest objective or benefit of this action. And that is, it seemed like early in the war, and this is a war, when the IRGC made what I think is the biggest blunder so far of sending projectiles into every Gulf nation, we had the formation of a stronger informal alliance between the U.S., Israel, and moderate nations in the Gulf. That would have been actually a really big win. And now we're losing their support because the Straits of Hormuz being blocked is just an enormous disruption for the Gulf states.

6:49Scott Galloway:Dubai, arguably one of the most successful urban sovereign centers in the world, in the UAE, kind of the 21st century Singapore. or people want out, people are leaving. It looks much more vulnerable than it ever has. And it's not as if you can just turn off the tap and store this oil. You know, there are real issues to oil buildup. They get dangerous. These wells just, they have oil flowing and the oil needs to go somewhere and they can put it on ships, but then what do you do with the ships? They're talking about naval armadas to escort ships through the Straits of Hormuz, but they haven't quite figured it out.

7:26Scott Galloway:It just feels like, again, it was half-baked. And it feels as if right now, in order to salvage what I think was, again, an enormous upside to potentially to this war, they need to be more tightly knit with the Gulf Nations and say, how do we make the sacrifice we've all made here a win for you and a more sustainable peace across the region long-term? And it feels as if slowly but surely we're eroding all of that goodwill and starting to throw Gulf nations back into the arms of the IRGC, because we can't even seem to articulate what it is we're trying to accomplish right now. And the other thing I wanted to ask you was that those images, it felt post-apocalyptic of the bombing of oil fields near Tehran and that kind of raining, acidic black rain and those fires felt very, very frightening.

8:21Scott Galloway:And also, I would argue that a real danger here is the balkanization and a potential civil war within Iran, because typically you don't get who you want in those situations. And also to gut the economic livelihood of Iran right now is probably you lose an enormous bargaining chip and just creates further instability, which probably isn't good long term for the region. and then when Trump came out or when the president came out and said that, quote unquote, it got leaked that he was angry that Israel did this, that is such enormous bullshit. I think the IDF is essentially kind of the sixth branch of the U.S.

8:57Scott Galloway:military right now. They are coordinating 100 % right now. And this notion like, oh, these guys, these Israelis are out of control, but I'm the good guy. Let's negotiate. It's just such, I just think that of such extraordinary bullshit that this is that be clear, Trump's in charge here. But I think it was a huge mistake to go after the oil fields in Iran at this point. What are your thoughts?

9:25Jessica Tarlov:Well, having a better understanding of how intense the back channeling is between the U.S. and the Israelis and not just our government, but someone like Jared Kushner and that wide ranging presser that Trump gave yesterday. He actually said, based on what Jared Kushner told me, I thought Iran would attack us. Not based on what our intel agencies were telling us, but what my son-in-law, who has a lot of friends who help him make a lot of money in the region, is telling us. And you're completely right. I mean, I think that they had the same reaction that we all did when they saw Tehran engulfed in flames and thought, holy shit, this one is bad.

10:03Jessica Tarlov:Right. Especially on day, was it day eight? of this war. But what has been interesting to see, and David Ignatius wrote about this in the Washington Post yesterday, that apparently a few senior officials in Israel are voicing concerns about the escalating open-ended attack on Iran. So that would imply that they thought it could be more surgical. I don't know if they're being dismissive of our military capabilities and kind of saying, we gave you everything, right? Like, we told you where they were having brunch. We had, a red light on their forehead, essentially, to be able to do this. And you guys are not living up to our expectation or just an acknowledgement that everybody failed in assessing how Iran would react to this, because there's this machismo that we have, Pete Hegseth, right, you know, beating his chest, saying there's nobody like us, there's nobody like us, and there is nobody like us.

11:00Jessica Tarlov:But Iranian government, the IRGC, and the new Supreme Leader are not hankering to get to the table with us. They're going to run out the clock. They're YOLOing this. And they're making the other Gulf states suffer. I mean, there are 14 countries involved right now for something that they marketed at the beginning as a surgical strike, right, that we could be out of here in a few days.

11:25Scott Galloway:A special combat operation.

11:26Jessica Tarlov:Right. Which can be very open-ended, but we're talking about 14 countries, and they're just telling people to pull up their big boy pants and go through the Strait of Hormuz when that's certain deaths, right? Just get your tankers through. And I think it is interesting and important that Trump spent an hour on the phone with Putin yesterday. So when they came out and said, we're not bothered by the fact that the Russians are not only supplying drones, but are apparently giving targeting information for Americans.

11:54Scott Galloway:Yeah.

11:54Jessica Tarlov:So he's gone to Putin and And I mean, who knows what he actually said, but Pete Hegseth says it was a very sharp conversation. He told them back off. And also we want peace for Ukraine, as if that matters. You know, this is turning into a global problem, right? There is nothing small time about what's going on here. And it feels like all the wrong people are smiling at what they're seeing. And I don't know if you caught this, but CNN got a journalist into Iran, invited in to talk to a foreign policy advisor to the new supreme leader. And so you're watching a communications and marketing campaign play out as well.

12:34Jessica Tarlov:Right. So on multiple fronts, it seems like flares are going up, that we are not moving towards any of the mission goals that were originally outlined. Maybe Rubio's lower grade goals will be accomplished or could be accomplished, but mostly that Jim Himes was right and that we are going to try to find an off ramp with as little humiliation as possible. And Trump will do a big, you know, truth social post and move on to Cuba.

13:03Scott Galloway:Okay, let's take a quick break. Stay with us.

13:08Jessica Tarlov:After decapitation strikes against Iran's leadership,

13:11Scott Galloway:what can we expect next in the escalating war? The big question is, if there is going to be a next strongman in Iran, what kind of strongman will that person likely be? I don't think that there's going to be another powerful cleric, supreme leader. I'm Jon Feiner. And I'm Jake Sullivan. And we're the hosts of The Long Game, a weekly national security podcast. This week, we sit down with Kareem Sajipour to discuss what to expect in this next phase of the war against Iran. The episode's out now. Search for and follow The Long Game wherever you get your podcasts. Are Democrats their own biggest problem?

13:50Scott Galloway:You know, a party becomes defined by who their central figure, who their quarterback becomes. Democrats haven't really anointed a effective quarterback since Barack Obama, pretty much. And this week, the Atlantic staff writer Mark Levovich joins me to discuss the state of the Democratic Party and which races to keep an eye out for this midterm election. The episode is out now. Search and follow Stay Tuned with Preet wherever you get your podcasts.

14:20Scott Galloway:Yeah, it does appear that the market is more optimistic about this war coming to a close. I mean, essentially, oil has come back from, I think, a high of$112 to approximately, I think, it's right now trading at about$83. So it's come down substantially. It's off 12 percent just on the last day.

14:42Jessica Tarlov:Do you think that's because of Trump's comment or what do you think that's a result of?

14:47Scott Galloway:You know, that's the correct question. The honest answer is I don't know. I think that it's looking increasingly like the regime is going to survive here. and also that there's increasing pressure to, if you will, declare victory and leave. But the markets, which absorb millions of points of information and are unemotional, nonpolitical, it's just pure fear and greed, seem to be saying that the Straits of Hormuz will eventually, or sooner rather than later, be open. And that would be a function of one or two things, our ability to create convoys to escort leadership safely or that this conflict is going to come to some sort of resolution or start to wind down.

15:29Scott Galloway:And given what I've heard, it's more the latter. I don't think the Trump administration has been able to instill a great deal of confidence that they'll be able to create safe passage if this conflict continues at the same level of intensity it is right now. But the markets seem to be saying, and the S &P is flat and almost looks pretty boring over the last few days, that this will be over sooner rather than later. The issue is, again, and I don't understand why they aren't creating a series of objectives, declaring, you know, that they could say they've already met, as the president said. And then the most important thing, and the problem is, this isn't a president that appreciates diplomacy to get all of the Gulf nations together and say, we've all made huge sacrifices here.

16:10Scott Galloway:How do we make this a win for all of you moving forward? What is it you want to make sure? And they might say, just get the fuck out of here. or is it, do you want us to ensure that the launch capabilities are further neutered? Do you want to make sure that the Navy is totally, is unable to have any sort of mining capability or to deploy mines in the Straits of Hormuz? But I would argue that Secretary Rubio should be getting all the Gulf states in a room and saying, how do we make this a win for all of us, including you? because to me, again, the biggest benefit coming out of this would be if we isolate Iran through an alliance with all the Gulf countries, including Israel, and such that they have faith that we are, in fact, a really strong, responsible partner because it feels as if every day that is weakening.

17:02Scott Galloway:And again, we are shoving them back into the arms of Iran, which is really from a foreign policy perspective, in my view, on a meta level, the biggest mistake of the Trump administration and Secretary Rubio, and that as they're under the impression with a third of the world's GDP, we can take on the other two thirds. We used to be able to do that because we cooperated and we were the operating system for college 60 or 70 percent of the world's military and GDP. But going at it alone is contrary to every basic notion of strategy in geopolitics. And that is the most successful geopolitical action or where the whole is greater than the sum of its parts because It was a cooperation in a unified West.

17:43Scott Galloway:And we had a moment, and I still think we have that moment, where I don't want to say the West, but call it capitalist or, you know, the modern world comes together and presents a united front to Iran and other rogue nations that includes the Gulf states. And that was the moment. It feels like that moment is passing. Any thoughts before we move on here, Jess?

18:07Jessica Tarlov:No, I agree with you. And I'm thinking about, you know, next month Trump goes to Beijing or is supposed to. And what do we look like for that meeting? I mean, this has to be done by then, right? I would presume. And it seems like, you know, the off ramps are happening. But I am concerned about that, like what the perception is of our capabilities, how strong our leadership is, how much they're thinking through important alliances all over the world that can counteract the influence of China and make sure that, you know, Beijing doesn't have our proverbial number. Everyone should listen to China Decode.