Raging Moderates: Trump’s Iran War Plan Falls Apart as Allies Walk Away

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2:03That's the Betterment Effect. Get started today at Betterment.com. Investing involves risk, performance not guaranteed. Thanks for listening to Raging Moderates on the Prop G feed. We'll be soon leaving this feed. So you're going to want to subscribe to Raging Moderates on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and everywhere else. You'll get new episodes every weekday evening, including the episode that you're about to hear. That's right. Raging Moderate subscribers get Jess and me five days a week. Subscribe now on YouTube or Substack for ad-free if you're into that. Now here's today's show. The administration is completely off base and out of sync with the 330 million Americans who are invested in not only where American lives may end up, not only the 50 ,000 troops in the region, but potentially perishing, what their costs are as a result and what this says about American power writ large and our allies.

3:00allies.

3:04Welcome to Region Moderates. I'm Scott Galloway. And I'm Jessica Tarlov. Jessica, I went to the Oscar party at Vanity Fair, the Vanity Fair Oscar party. I don't know if you knew that. I did know it, but I want to know more. I want to know everything. You sent me one great text. I did. And then nothing. So tell me everything. And that was before all the winners started showing up. Yeah, it was. I'm not exaggerating. I at one point I started Googling actors with last name Galloway because I think they screwed up. I don't know. I literally have no idea how I got him. Someone said, oh, podcasts are important.

3:40And some 19 year old intern went, what about that crazy professor? It's it was incredible. I thought, I mean, they just did an amazing job. And then standing in between, you know, Jacob Elodie and John Hamm ordering drinks. It's just so it felt. Did you talk to them? I did. I talked to a bunch of people. Everyone was very friendly. These people know who you are. They at least love what you're doing for young men. I'm sure a lot of them are pivot listeners. You've seen that. I mean, you guys have become, you know, you're celebs. Anyways, I didn't want to go there. I really wasn't fishing for your compliments.

4:13It was amazing. No, that's honest. It wasn't even when I'm trying to make you feel better. I genuinely think that's the case. I don't know about Jacob Elordi, but. It was amazing. I had an amazing time. Thank you for asking. What did you do this weekend? I was at South by Southwest with you. Oh, I knew that. And we had a great time. I was literally sitting next to you. Oh, and it was wonderful. James Tallarico was the Jacob Elordi of South by Southwest. That was actually, I'll go as far as to say that was a close second in terms of my weekend was our interview with Representative Tallarico. He's so good.

4:43Anyways, all right, enough of that. Today, we're going to be discussing Trump's demands to allies to step up on Iran and his immigration policy colliding with reality. If you aren't already, please make sure to subscribe to our YouTube page to stay in the loop on all the political news. And if you're really motivated, please subscribe to our sub stack where you'll get exclusive content and these podcasts ad free, amongst other things. All right, let's get into it. Trump is facing mounting pressure on multiple fronts, abroad and home. Overseas, tensions are escalating fast. Israel said it killed a top Iranian leader, Ali Larajani, in a strike near Tehran.

5:20The latest blow to Iran's leadership. That comes as Trump tries to rally allies to help reopen the Straits of Hormuz, but so far, no one's committing warships, and he's openly frustrated. Back at home, there's a reality check on immigration. After promising mass deportations would create a 100 % American workforce, the administration is now expanding visas for migrant farm workers because farm workers can't find enough labor. Meanwhile, the Supreme Court is weighing whether Trump can end protections for hundreds of thousands of Haitian and Syrian immigrants. Inside the government, there's also turmoil at DHS where border control hardliner Greg Bovino is stepping down after extreme controversies, clashes, and a federal judge accusing him of misleading the court.

6:02And Republicans are pushing the SAVE Act, a voting bill requiring proof of citizenship and ID, which critics say could tilt elections toward the GOP. So the bigger question is, are the administration's biggest promises on immigration and global leadership colliding with reality? Still, that hasn't stopped officials from saying the quiet part out loud. Let's watch Kevin Hassett this morning on CNBC talking about the economic impact of the Iran conflict. The fact is that the U.S. economy is fundamentally sound and that if it were to be extended, it wouldn't really disrupt the U.S. economy very much at all.

6:37It would hurt consumers. And we'd have to think about, you know, if that continued, what we would have to do about that. But that's like really the last of our concerns right now, because we're very confident that this thing is going ahead of schedule. Haven't you heard that U.S. consumers being hurt is not part of the general health of the economy? An economy that's two thirds of the consumer. It's so weird. Like, I know I've said this a million times. Why do you not learn lessons from our defeat? that's like exactly the same thing that Democrats went out there and said actually a little less callous than we don't really care what happens to the average person.

7:14But we went out there with our GDP growth and our job growth and said, you know, you can basically deal with the prices because we have the fastest recovery in the G7. And everyone was like, guess what? You lose. We're picking the other guys. And then they show up, do everything wrong and then use the same talking point. Yeah, the tenor of his voice reminds me, this is one of my favorite moments with my youngest. When he was five, he drew on the wall with a marker and he started denying it. In the middle of his denial, he realized that he had written his name. That's what his voice sounds like.

7:50He sounds like, okay, there's no way anyone's going to believe I'm not lying here. What I'm saying is true. You know, all of these guys, J.D. Vance, Scott Bessent are like, no, I'll pass on that meet the press interview. I think I'm I think I'm just going to take a little vacation here and not have to defend any of this nonsense. Do you think that what do you think? Do you think things are getting cheaper here? What's what's our data, Jess? Oh, no, the data does not indicate that's the case. Certainly gas is not getting any cheaper. And we're going to be talking about, right? And diesel went over$5 a gallon for the first time since 2022.

8:28Without diesel, you've got no trucking business, agriculture, housing, all of it relies on diesel. people still report that the grocery store is tougher for them over 70 percent say that trump is not paying attention to what matters most to them which is cost of living energy prices in general continue to spike they seem to just not be taking it seriously this affordability is a hoax thing they think it's just a buzzword and i get it it's you know funny when you hear everyone from mom donnie to abigail spanberger using the same lines right because it's affordability, affordability, affordability.

9:04But that's what wins you elections to show people that you actually care about their experience on the ground. And I think that, you know, it's still a long way until the midterms. And people might not be paying attention to the everyday flow of this. What did Kevin Hassett say on CNBC today? But their feelings are not changing because there has been no indication that the administration is taking the realities on the ground seriously. And if you want to run a midterm election around, I'm the peace president and I stopped eight wars or whatever ridiculous claim he's going to make, and you don't feel like you can take a vacation to Disney and go out to dinner once a week and maybe catch a movie, if that's something that appeals to you and your family, then why would you entrust the keys to the car to the Republicans, certainly for the Senate, the House, and the White House?

9:57I mean, I think there are going to be a lot of people out there hankering for at least divided government. Yeah, according to Kalshi, there's a 53 percent chance gas prices exceed four dollars this week. You had referenced farmers who are getting especially hard hit. I think a combination of the surge in diesel prices, what will be a huge increase in the price of fertilizer and also their inability to find workers has led to bankruptcies rose 46 percent in 2025, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. and you're probably going to see an even greater increase in 2026. And fertilizer prices up are 77 percent.

10:32Which is it. It's funny. It's the stuff you're not expecting. I wouldn't have thought like fertilizer would be. Well, 30 percent of the world's fertilizer comes through the Strait of Hormuz. Yeah, Qatar, right? I think so. Anyways, it's that's a word we're going to hear more about. A January Pew survey found that 92 percent of Americans were concerned about the cost of food and consumer goods. And the level of consumer prices has increased 24 % since March of 2021. So in about five years, it's up 24%. I'm interested to know what inflation, inflation is probably up 12 or 14 % since then. Anyways, this is a big deal.

11:09If I think about, well, if you think about his three big pillars of the three legs of the Trump stool that were so effective in 2024, it was immigration, affordability, and, quite frankly, no forever wars. And let's use this to segue into the Strait of Hormuz. It appears that with their approach to the war in Iran, he's immediately got a twofer and not in a good way. He's gone back on affordability and on what potentially could be or what people are worried about could be a forever war. And U.S. allies don't want to commit to ships. What do you think are ships to help escort tankers through the Gulf or the Straits of Hormuz.

11:49What do you think that means for the war and the U.S., Jess? Well, if you're going by the original war plan, there's about three weeks left with the amount of strikes that they want to carry out where they'll, quote-unquote, feel like they've finished the job. The question is, can we hold on through those three weeks? He seems pretty dug in about it. There are obviously reports of various off-ramps that they've been trying, conflicting reports about Witkoff trying to talk to the negotiators, like get back on good terms with the Omanis and the Iranians to get back to the table. Then there are counter reports that the Iranians want to talk to us.

12:30I'm not sure what's true there. What I do know is that attitudinally, the administration is completely off base and out of sync with the 330 million Americans who are invested in not only where American lives may end up, not only the 50 ,000 troops in the region, but potentially perishing, what their costs are as a result and what this says about American power writ large and our allies. I mean, Donald Trump just posted a true social before we got on here, basically saying, you know, we never wanted your help when he openly wanted the help of the NATO countries. And they've all basically said, like, I can't pick up your call at this moment.

13:17This is not our war. We weren't consulted. No one was given a heads up. And when you consider the fact that there is, for lack of a better term, another war going on in Lebanon right now that the Israelis are waging. I mean, there are 800 ,000 people that have been evacuated out of Lebanon because of what Israel is doing there, which was clearly part of the plan, but not something that we were necessarily signing up to be a de facto part of. So I think that the administration is doing themselves no favors. I was really stuck on, and I know, you know, I live in a bubble to some degree, and these clips, once the algorithm knows that I like these clips of Donald Trump saying stupid stuff, I just get more and more and more.

13:57But I'm sure you saw this exchange with Peter Doocy. Thank you. You were talking about Iran a couple of times today and what they did after Epic Fury began. You said they hit Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait. Nobody expected that. We were shot. Are you surprised that nobody briefed you ahead of time that that might be their retaliation? Nobody. Nobody. No, no, no. No. The greatest experts. Nobody thought they were going to hit. They were, I wouldn't say friendly countries. They were like neutral. They were, they lived with them for years. Iran publicly warned nine days before the U.S.

14:31Israeli sneak attack that this is what they were going to do. They said all bases, facilities and assets of the hostile force in the region would constitute legitimate targets. They sent that letter to the U.N. on February 19th. There's also this guy, an Iranian specialist, Nate Swanson, who was on the National Security Council under Biden and then was actually on Trump's negotiating team for this new nuclear deal that they were trying to get through. And he wrote a piece in Foreign Affairs called Why Iran Will Escalate. And that came out four days before the attack. So Donald Trump is trying to sell us this idea that no one could have seen this coming, that they would shut down the Strait of Hormuz when it seems like not only did Iran tell us that that's what was going to come, but people who worked on his own negotiating team said it out loud.

15:15Yeah, I just feel obligated to insert that Israel moving into Lebanon is after the Hezbollah fired hundreds of projectiles into Israel. So it wasn't just. Oh, no, I was. Yeah, I wasn't trying to make it like nothing had happened. And I wanted to say as well that more rockets are getting through the Iron Dome than we've seen in a really long time. And it is a very dangerous situation on the ground in Israel. I just meant that this is not just about what's going on in Iran anymore. Fourteen countries are involved. Yeah. Look, the statement that is one of the most I don't know, one of the statements I carry in my back pocket of one of my board members, Larry Bond from General Catalyst, That's something that always struck me or has stuck with me, and that is greatness is in the agency of others.

15:55And I think, I mean, it would be hard to, it's a pretty stiff competition for Trump's biggest flaw, but right up there is an arrogance and belief that with 30 % of the world's GDP, we can muscle around the world. not recognizing that that control came from cooperation amongst 60 or 70 percent of the world's GDP, that generally speaking, the world saw us as obnoxious, but the good guys, or at least the Western world, and would follow us into conflicts even when they were a bit unsure to maintain this alliance, recognizing they benefited from a kind of an American-led operating system. and just some history here around Gulf Wars and the coalitions.

16:37In 1991, under Herbert Walker Bush, 35 nations, it was UN authorized and allies paid the bill. In 2003, W, 40 nations claimed or were claimed as part of the coalition. It was mostly symbolic. There was no UN authorization and the U.S. paid the bill. This war, two nations, U.S. and Israel, no UN authorization, and the U.S. is paying 100 % of the bill and absorbs all of the blowback. And so Bush Sr. built a 35-nation coalition for Desert Storm, got the U.N. on board and made allies pay$54 billion of the$61 billion tab. You know, that's real leadership. Bush Jr. claimed that 40 countries were for Iraq, but it was really the U.S., U.K.

17:23and a few thousand Australians. Trump started a war with Iran with basically, you know, check notes, Israel. That's it. No coalition, no U.N., no allies paying, just two countries bombing a nation of, you know, 93 million people, while the rest of the world, including the Arab states whose military bases were operating from, are getting hit with retaliatory strikes that they never agreed to. You could argue this isn't a coalition, right? It's an attempt to distract from domestic political disasters. I mean, they just so badly blew it here. If they'd gone to Congress for an authorization for the use of military force, if they'd limited the scope in terms of objectives, if they'd got, they probably could have a couple, at least cooperation from a couple of Gulf states, a couple of European nations.

18:06It would have been just such a different complexion of the war. And on a very basic human level, it's like, I didn't consult with you. I've created problems for you. Now I expect you to help me. And people are like, go fuck yourself, boss. You broke it. You own it. And we're sort of out there alone right now. So this, again, I think the lesson, the takeaway here is that no matter how powerful you are, no one nation is able to dominate without a coalition, without cooperation, which is our species superpower. And I believe this is Trump's Achilles heel, as he believes he can muscle around Congress, muscle around the courts, and muscle, quite frankly, muscle around the West.

18:50And I think that this is their moment where they're happy to say, sorry, boss, this one's on you. Okay, let's take a quick break. Stay with us. Hi, everyone. I'm Charlie Cox. Join us on Disney Plus as we talk with the cast and crew of Marvel Television's Daredevil Born Again. What haven't you gotten to do as Daredevil? Being the Avengers. Charlie and Vincent came to play. I get emotional when I think about it. One of the great finales of any episode we've ever done. We are going to play Truth or Daredevil. What? Oh, boy. Fantastic. You guys go hard, man. Daredevil Born Again, official podcast, Tuesdays.

19:26And stream season two of Marvel Television's Daredevil Born Again on Disney+. At Grubhub, we're eating the fees on restaurant orders over$50. That's right. No more of those pesky fees. No delivery fee. No service fee. No sick day fee. No date night fee. No your roommate Kevin spilled the sauce all over the inside of the refrigerator and now you need more sauce fee. No parking fee. No finder's fee. No knock, knock. Who's there? Another fee fee. Seriously, no more fees on restaurant orders over$50. No delivery fees, no service fees. Only on Grubhub. Grubhub will eat the fees. Details at Grubhub.com.

20:02Some things are just better in person. High fives, hugging your dog, and shopping for Crocs. If you've never been to a Crocs store, you're missing out. Sure, you can find us online, but when you step inside our shop, you'll get it. And your feet will feel fantastic with a fresh pair of classic cloths, or cozy slippers or beach-ready sandals or even sneakers. Everything's ridiculously comfy, and you can even pick out Jibbit's charms to personalize your new pair. Go check out your nearest Croc store. You deserve that in-person moment. Welcome back. I'm sure you've seen this AI slop that they're posting from the official White House account.

20:38I hate that. Actually, we have a clip of John Ossoff responding to the video games. Let's play that. Last night, the White House put a video. on social media that depicted this war as a video game. Did you all see that? Yes.

21:04When American service members killed in action are returning to the United States in flag-draped coffins, and even more Americans have lost limbs or suffered terrible brain injuries or are fighting for their lives, this White House treats war like a game. John Ossoff having a moment also, but he's completely right. And I've seen online a lot of veterans, Gold Star families responding to these posts from the White House saying, how dare you do this? And then Trump is also fundraising off of using a picture of him wearing the white USA cap at the dignified transfer. Remember, they didn't want anyone to know that he wore a baseball cap to it, but now they're making money off of it.

21:55You just can't take these people seriously. And not only that, you can't think that they're good human beings. It's so depraved. Yeah, the word in there is serious. I think of when Logan Roy says to his children who act like the entitled jerks that they are, he says, you are not serious people. The U.S. government should never be putting out memes. Anything that comes out from the president is essentially an official communication from the U.S. government. The U.S. government should never be, I'm not even sure the U.S. government should ever be tweeting or on social media. They need to ensure that what they say is taken seriously.

22:31And it just erodes our reputation as a serious people when we start putting out memes and we don't know what to, we don't know when they actually mean something and when they don't. It's just, again, a further erosion in our brand equity. And the result is all of these things, mocking people not being, taking this seriously, we're now more isolated than we were in Iraq. And that war cost us$2 trillion and 4 ,500 American lives and created ISIS. And the scary part here is that, you know, And I need to have an asterisk here is that I've gotten this information from a lot of geopolitical creators I follow on TikTok who follow troop movements.

23:12There are amphibious vessels and combat troops circling the island or getting in a position to go after Karg. And one of the other observations that was really interesting to me is they said, look, going after Iran's oil infrastructure means that the administration has given up on the notion of regime change. Because if you had regime change, you'd want the new regime to have the benefit of economic support of an intact oil infrastructure. And so attacking the oil infrastructure kind of acknowledges we're not going to we're not going to have regime change. But this is the chickens are coming home to roost.

23:45He went at it alone, made no effort to even nod to any sort of a coalition. And the coal, you know, who should be logical allies have said, I'm sorry, you didn't check with us. And now you want our help? Yeah. Pound sand. Just on the big takeout of their intel head, essentially, the guy who they took, Ali, Lara Jani, he was Iran's Supreme National Security Council head. It's a big deal. It shows, you know, great infiltration of the Iranian leadership coalition. We knew that they had infiltrated, obviously, to that level. But how this war is being executed makes it very hard, and I think you've put it in these terms before, to look for the good in it, right, to see what's going right.

24:31And, you know, we are being sold this idea that, you know, their missile capabilities are way down, which is objectively true, right? They're sending up 10 to 14 a day compared to, what was it, like 900 on day one. But we also had complete obliteration of Fordow, and it was the end of the nuclear program. And then within a few months, it was up and running. And so if we are not taking out their capabilities on a permanent basis, I worry that we're going to it's going to come back again in five years to say we have to go do this again. And it's going to become like a ritual. Right. That we do this.

25:06And I'm not sure that the American people are going to be up for something like that. Yeah. And just just to put a fine point on the notion that there it's always important to ask what could go right here. And to your point, how you said it, what could go right? I've found that the best description of the war so far is operational excellence and strategic incompetence. since to the point of operational excellence, the U.S. has damaged more than 30 Iranian mine-laying vessels. So there is, in terms of military objectives, the U.S. is performing, and Israel are performing, really well. Thoughts on the SAVE Act?