The Crisis of Adulthood — with John Burn-Murdoch

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26:11Scott Galloway:So you frame the Gen Z crypto risk-taking behavior not as irresponsibility, but as a rational response to being locked out of housing, a phenomenon called financial nihilism. The evidence suggests that reduced work effort, increased leisure spending, and investment in risky assets are all disproportionately common among young adults with little realistic prospect of buying a home. Walk us through that. Yeah, so this was a really interesting study initially where I saw this identified. And the term financial nihilism as well, I should credit to Dimitri Kofinas, who originally coined that a couple of years back.

26:47But the data here is super interesting. So if you look at detailed consumer spending data, which splits people by age, housing tenure, relationship status, all of that kind of stuff, what we see is that a lot of these sort of negative stereotypes of millennials and Gen Z about wasting money on crypto, on conspicuous consumption, on takeout, like expensive takeout every day, that kind of thing. That is happening much more among people who we can see have no realistic prospects of buying a house. For those who are on the brink of affording a house or they've managed to buy a house, they're doing that much less.

27:26So we've created this situation where people really can rationally look at their finances and the housing situation around them, and maybe the fact that they don't have a partner either, they're not worried about supporting a household with kids' mouths to feed, and they think, why don't I just roll the dice here, throw some money at it? And it is simultaneously, there's two things there, right? One is that they're saying, well, my only chance of succeeding in an economy that feels as stacked against me as it is, is to take high risk bets. And simultaneously, they're thinking there's no point in me being sensible with my finances, because I don't have one of these big long-term looming costs like a house or a family.

28:06So there's decent evidence that a lot of these stereotypes of waste and gambling really are downstream of that same mechanism.

28:15Scott Galloway:Yeah, I thought that maybe, I mean, I was at a music festival and I saw so many young people in the VIP section where the tickets were 2 ,500 bucks. And I asked someone, I said, you know how can you afford to be here and they said well we're not saving for a house you know it's they've given up like when i was that age the first thing i did out of graduate school is i started packing all my money away for for a house that was the next thing and they've just given up on that so they go to coachella and also i wonder if when when i came of into my prime income earning years it was the great financial recession and we let asset prices fall.

28:58Scott Galloway:We didn't bail out. We bailed out the banks, but we didn't bail out the economy. And so I got to buy Apple, Amazon, and Netflix at$8,$10, and$12 a share respectively. Now when asset prices fall, we decide we're going to bail out the incumbents, which is robbing opportunity from young people who want an opportunity for disruption to buy assets on the cheap as they're starting to make money. And so they feel as if, well, the game is rigged. You guys just keep using my credit card to prop up your assets artificially. that you already own. So I'm going to invent my own asset class. Do you think there's any truth to that, John?

29:32Yeah, that certainly rings true to me. And in the UK at the moment, we have this particularly unpleasant twist where millennials, people in their 30s today had an incredibly tough time trying to buy a house. Because again, they landed into that economy with high house prices. But then when they did manage to get on the housing ladder by like an apartment that was modestly priced, that class of housing is now lost value. So I think there are so many ways in which that generation has suffered from almost both sides of the same mechanisms. Like we made it hard for them to get on the housing ladder.

30:09Now that they're on the ladder, they're at risk of falling into negative equity. Yeah, I absolutely think that period around the 2010s, so many things changed so many things happened which absolutely meaningfully meant that the the deck has been stacked against people of that generation it's really striking the other thing i'd love to give

30:29Scott Galloway:a review on i was watching japan versus the netherlands last night in the world cup and other than the fact that the japanese team and fans stick around to clean the stadium which i think is the greatest brand building activity in the history of sport it just makes you think I really like Japan. But putting that aside, I could not get over, it felt like every ad, so maybe it was 50%, was an ad for gambling. I just, I thought, oh my God, it's everywhere. It's literally everywhere. Thoughts on gambling and what it's done or is doing to our youth? Am I panicking about this or is it the threat that I think it is?

31:21No, I mean, the data on this seems pretty solid, right? So there have been a bunch of studies in the U.S. showing that when different states legalized online gambling or online sports betting, it led to really significant negative impacts in terms of people, very low incomes, spending money either every penny they had or even more on these platforms. in the UK there's increasingly been regulation of what gambling adverts can be shown during our domestic soccer leagues so there's definitely a live discussion here but yeah I mean this is something that destroys lies left right and centre and what we've seen in the US since 2018-19 we're now seeing in large parts of the developing world so there are now African countries where gambling revenues are a significant proportion of GDP So, yeah, I absolutely think this has been a real scourge of many, many societies.

32:16And as you say, the fact that so much of just consuming sport as a young person now is just you're constantly being baited into this stuff. I think it's hugely problematic.

32:25Scott Galloway:Let's talk a little bit about the gender divide. You document a 30-point ideological gap between young men and women in both the U.S. and Germany, opening in just six years. Historically, generations move together politically because they share formative experiences. But that movement or congruence seems to have been broken. What do you think broke it? This is another one where I just think it's very difficult to explain this without social media having some role. So both in terms of the timings, we see this whether we're looking at the U.S., Germany, South Korea, the U.K. It happens pretty much everywhere starting in the 2010s.

33:05that is to say young women ending up significantly further to the left and right on average compared to young men and for me the easiest way to explain this is that to an increasing extent young men and young women exist in different parts of the internet different online worlds there's been really interesting analysis done to prove this out so when you look at what videos are shown to young men and women on TikTok in the US, for example, you do get these quite distinct clusters. There are certain clips that will be seen almost entirely by young women and certain clips seen almost entirely by young men.

33:43And among those clips, you often see either political content, and that doesn't need to be explicitly capital P political, but the kind of content that nudges you in a certain direction. You also occasionally get negative stereotypes about the other sex. So I think we're moving towards this place where people's political ideology, as has always been the case, is shaped in part by the information they consume. You have a large number of young men and women consuming very different types of information, different types of content. And that inevitably, I think, leads to what we see.

34:17Scott Galloway:It feels as if the genders have done a great job convincing themselves it's the other gender's fault. And there's a lot of misogyny online, really ugly misogyny. That's the bad news. The good news is that I think a lot of people correctly call it out and say, you know, I think of this UFC fight where that fucking idiot gets up there and says the first lady is a man and social media just weighs in and bats him correctly down. What I also see is a decent amount of misandry. And that is, if you look at, I would argue that the majority of podcasts where there's two female co-hosts, there's this underlying theme that men are irredeemable or incompetent, and that maybe they, the women, are cursed biologically to be attracted to them.

35:10Scott Galloway:But be clear, it's a curse needing men. And the difference is it doesn't get called out. Now, if you talk about just how depraved and predatory men are, and I've seen this trend on TikTok where women are coaching other women not to go on dates because it's just too dangerous. So the idea that men are these young men are these violent people looking to kill the women they go on dates with, the data just doesn't support that. You have to choose your words so carefully because if you in any way say these fears are exaggerated, you yourself, the mob comes for you. You're protecting these men or what have you.

36:02Scott Galloway:But I want to ask you to validate it or nullify that thesis. But any thoughts on this notion that what isn't helping the connection is misogyny and misandry? But I would argue in most cases, the misogyny is more readily identified than the misandry. Yeah, I think that's clearly true. And you see this around the conversation around the gender divide in general, which is that in most countries, what we've seen actually is young men have not become any more conservative over the last couple of decades. What's changed is young women have moved very, very significantly to the left. And yet the conversation about the gender divide, typically there's a premise that what's happened is young men moving to the right.

36:45That they become Neanderthals. Exactly, exactly. And again, the thing I find striking in the context of our discussion about birth rates and relationships is that the data show that men, well, fathers, are doing a larger share of domestic work and childcare than ever before. Now again, we're not at 50 % yet, and that may never happen, But the average man is actually, by any measure we have, a better partner or potential partner than we've ever seen in the data. But as you say, there are still genuine extreme cases which social media amplifies, which means that there is always evidence that someone can point to legitimately as an example of men being terrible.

37:31So I completely share your frustration that both with the narratives overall and the fact that it's so tricky to talk about this in a way that doesn't lead one to get attacked for suggesting that there is sort of exaggeration going on.

37:48Scott Galloway:Unfortunately, some of the most famous and wealthiest men in the world have not been exactly brand ambassadors for men as a whole. But I do think young men get painted with a really ugly brush. And it's sort of in vogue or fair game to portray men as just awful. And whereas when you do that, and there's a lot of that online, it gets called out. In terms of this gender divide, and by the way, I just think I always like to take one big insight away. It's really what you just said. I felt it, but I didn't know it the way you articulated it. And that is men haven't moved to the right. Women have moved more progressive.

38:33Scott Galloway:And that is there's still there's the majority of young men still believe in bodily autonomy. They believe in women's rights. Women have moved much more progressive, which is neither. And you can't fault them for it. people have their own agency and get to decide. But the movement and the divide has been a function of women going further left, not men going further right. Do you see any differences in this delta between the UK and the US? I think it looks relatively similar. So some of this is a function of political systems and which sort of parties are available for people to support on the left and right.

39:08So in the UK, we now have this fragmented system where you see women more likely to vote for the sort of radically progressive Green Party and young men more likely to vote for the radical right reform party. But we do, by and large, see a pretty similar pattern on both sides of the Atlantic. And that, for me, suggests that this is a broader sort of shift that's happening. I'd also emphasize that the sort of English-speaking world has its own corner of social media in a way that was much less true before we had social media. So 15 years ago, young men and women in the US would have been consuming very different media to young men and women in the UK.

39:48Today, there's a huge amount of overlap. We saw that with how the Black Lives Matter movement rapidly spread from the US to the UK, Ireland, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and less so to other countries. But yeah, I think we absolutely see it in some of the other shifts we're talking about here. Something sort of takes hold in the US or maybe the UK and goes across the ocean. And we suddenly see similar patterns working their way through very different groups of people in different places.

40:21Scott Galloway:We'll be right back.

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41:59Scott Galloway:All eight episodes now streaming only on Disney+.

42:06Scott Galloway:We're back with more from John Byrne Murdoch. I want to talk about AI and work. In your work, you suggest that the AI job loss narrative may have been misattributed. The junior hiring pullback started when remote work took off in 2020, well before ChatGPT. In Gen Z, counterintuitively, are the generation most opposed to fully remote work. What is the right policy implication? More in-person mandates or something else? This one, again, I think is super interesting and relatively poorly understood. So a huge amount of time and effort has been put into looking at whether AI is impacting the labor market situation for young people.

42:48But much less work has been devoted to this massive shift over the last six years in terms of the rise of remote work. when you think about it that it transforms the relationship between worker and employer it transforms the hiring process it transforms how the nature of day-to-day work itself and very little analysis and study has been done on this and now we're starting to see a couple studies done and they do seem to suggest that it is more likely that remote working especially fully remote jobs have been a big part of the decline in hiring the disproportionate decline in hiring of young people.

43:27Now, again, the fairly consistent conclusion here is not that that means everyone should go back to doing five days a week. There's really solid evidence that hybrid working has been pretty good for everyone involved, for the bosses, for the juniors, for everyone. But the less time people are spending in the office, the more that work becomes this digital task or set of digital tasks, which, you know, if they can be done by someone hundreds of miles away, then maybe they could be done by agentic AI. So you get this overlap between moving someone far away, moving away from face to face to interacting through a screen.

44:05That happens at the same time as AI comes up. And suddenly it becomes almost second nature to think, well, you know, do we really need that many people who are just going to be pinging me documents over Slack? So I think there's certainly something there. But the way to solve this is probably to go back to more firms where you have three or four days in the office rather than saying five, which is where you then go over the peak and start getting into other problems.

44:34Scott Galloway:The productivity research or AI productivity research is especially noisy right now. You have wildly conflicting headlines, studies with different methodologies, people with enormous financial incentives. How do you as a data-driven storyteller cut through that? Like, how do you discern signal from noise? I mean, it's tricky. It's about trying to find the best data with the highest sort of signal-to-noise ratio for every time we ask this question. So a few months ago, the best data we had was the amount of activity that software engineers were performing, those using agentic AI versus those that weren't.

45:14And that gave us a sense that, well, this does seem to be boosting productivity. People are shipping more code. But a few months later, we're now able to look at that full pipeline, as it were, from lines of code written, pieces of software released, to how much those new pieces of AI-assisted software are actually getting used. And it turns out that when you follow that pipeline to its end, where you really are capturing value, there's been very little uplift at all so it's it's constantly challenging and i see this in my own work as well like i'm a fairly heavy user of the agentic ii tools and i definitely feel more productive i'm between me and and claude or codex we're producing loads of stuff but at the end of the week i look back and i think well i still did two articles um and there are so many jobs i think where that is true, where activity, sort of low-level activity does not always translate or frequently doesn't translate into high value that your, in my case, readers or in someone else's case, customers, clients will consume.

46:19So yeah, I think the question of how much real additional value is being generated by AI is going to continue to be this quite elusive beast. and we will have much better answers even in a couple of years than we do today.

46:34Scott Galloway:Something that's super interesting and your research has highlighted is that while social media creates polarization, AI chatbots actually create deep polarization, moderation, and that every major model nudges users towards more moderate, expert-aligned views, even accounting for sycophancy. Can you say more about this? Yeah, so I find this stuff, I think this is a really important question to ask is any new media form comes in and spreads across society. So certain types of media tend to bring people towards the middle. And this has been true across histories. Other ones sort of elevate fringe voices.

47:17So if you think about things like books or newspapers back when the printing press first came around, you were essentially because of the capital costs of starting up a newspaper publication or a book publisher you are by default favoring like establishment mainstream voices and that's not to make a value judgment about whether that's good or bad but that's part of the impact that that had similarly when television first came out you had a small number of channels again because of the costs involved and because of regulation so they tended to elevate mainstream voices at least at first. What we then had with social media is something that is fundamentally polarizing.

47:56It breaks through that establishment layer because anyone, anywhere can post to social media. It therefore elevates those fringe views. It amplifies negativity far more so than many other media forms did in the past. AI is this really interesting case where we seem to be going back to a moderating, establishment-favoring media, where this seems to be happening for a few different reasons. So one is that the information that these models are trained on, a huge amount of that has come from mainstream trusted sources. Additionally, you have the fact that the business model for AI tools is quite different to social media.

48:38So social media, like most of the digital media innovations of the last 15 years ended up being predominantly ad-funded. So it was all about attention. It was all about eyeballs. And therefore, you're incentivized to say sensationalist things, shocking things. AI, the winning business model seems to be making it very useful for people in the business world. That means the inner workings of this technology reward being correct. There's not much point having an AI tool which tells you what you want to hear if that's going to mean it tells you the wrong thing. You put the wrong thing in your report.

49:15You give your investors the wrong information. So all of these subtleties about how the technology differs mean that when you ask or when you talk to these AI tools and different models about issues of politics and ideology, and I don't necessarily mean explicitly asking them these questions, but as these issues come up from time to time in different conversations, they tend to give you fairly mainstream, straight down the middle, moderate answers. And therefore, to the extent that these conversations do end up shaping how people think about the world, they will hopefully, and the evidence suggests, they will bring people back away from those fringe extreme views and towards a more factual view of the world.

49:57Your charts have almost become as recognizable as

50:01Scott Galloway:your byline. People share them without the article. The key to success is great storytelling, or I would argue that's a core confidence. And you seem to tell great stories through your charts. What's your selection process for which chart you're going to sort of lead with? Honestly, I'm always trying to think why would this be interesting to someone and how many people would find this interesting. So I will, as I'm doing my analysis, I'll be generating like, I don't know, 20 charts per piece of work that I'm working on just as I go through that process. And then with each of those charts, I'm thinking, well, is this interesting?

50:36is this only interesting to me or could this be interesting to more people? Is this telling people something they already know or telling them something new? And if it is telling someone something they already knew, that's not necessarily a bad thing if it's really crystallizing this vague idea they had. But yeah, all sorts of trade-offs and decisions around that, but fundamentally based on this idea of thinking, how can I make this speak to as many people as possible?

51:03Scott Galloway:You've been covering these generational trends for years. and the through line, quite frankly, feels pretty bleak. And I would argue, and I won't say this about you, I'll say it about me, the temptation to catastrophize and be bleak is really seductive for quote-unquote thought leaders or academics because quite frankly, it just makes for a more interesting talk. Sort of, if you were just to have fidelity to history, our talks would be, you know what? Today, everything just got a wee bit better. And that's just not that interesting. It's much more interesting to talk about, and I'm not suggesting these issues aren't real, but I find myself, one, I'm naturally a depressed and angry person, so it's easy for me to catastrophize, but there's economic incentive in it.

51:48Scott Galloway:And that is, you just sound more interesting to talk about the problems. You've been talking about the general trend lines in, you know, mostly about youth, isolation, cognitive decline, economic dislocation, falling birth rates. Do you think it's getting worse? Or do you think that there are signs, I won't say hope because everyone will bust into their thing. Well, I'm an optimist. But do you think things really, where do you think we are in the curve of youth well-being? I honestly think we're probably past the bottom. I think that partly for the reasons we said about how AI could potentially shape the sort of social discourse and that kind of thing in a healthier way or at least a less unhealthy way than social media.

52:36I've also written about how there's early suggestive evidence that people's screen time and social media time may be falling, which I think would be very beneficial if people then start using that time to interact face-to-face. I think on housing, you know, it's always possible for things to get even worse. But I do think we're now having a conversation where there's an appreciation that this is something we really need to address and fix. and there are governments and policymakers in all sorts of different parts of the world starting to increasingly take this seriously. Yeah, I'm optimistic about that.

53:10I guess the pessimistic side that I'm competing against there is if AI does turn out to have this sustained negative impact on young people's employment, that would be a material negative shift that it would be very hard for all of these more subtle sociocultural shifts to wave away. But yeah, look, I try, I completely agree with you. The incentives here are to tell sort of surprising negative stories, but I do try to remain fully aware of that and look for the positive and more optimistic stories where they exist.

53:46Scott Galloway:I'm sure you get this question a lot, and it's one I get, and it's the following regarding the UK. What's wrong here? So many of the pillars of a stronger growth economy, great education, great culture, global influence. It's not a uniquely European thing. Sweden is growing. Productivity in the Netherlands is up. The UK is a real laggard. If you were to attempt to identify what ails the UK, what is wrong here? How do you answer that? Look, again, there's going to be so many answers to a question like this, but certainly two big ones that I would point to immediately are, one is the sort of planning and permitting system here, which really makes countries like the US, where that's also a conversation, look like rookies.

54:41You know, the restrictions on house building in the UK are extraordinary. There are huge areas of land around London, around Manchester, around Birmingham, our major cities, where you are simply not allowed to build, called the Green Belt. We apply similar restrictions or similarly severe restrictions to building infrastructure. We have some of the highest infrastructure costs in the world and the longest delays in the world affecting transport, affecting energy. That gives us some of the highest energy prices in the developed world. All of these make it harder for people, companies, you name it, to locate in the UK or in the most productive parts of the UK.

55:21The second factor, I would say, is an over-centralization of how things are done in the country. So one of the things I think the US does pretty well is state and local governments can raise their own taxes. That gives them strong incentives to build, to innovate, to try and run things better than the neighboring state. In the UK, we, by and large, don't have that. Overwhelmingly, things, even at the local level, are effectively run by the central government. that discourages one city to try to do things differently from another. Most of the tax-raising mechanisms, again, happen in a similar way.

55:56So local governments in the UK are similarly not incentivized to build housing to raise revenue in the way they are in the US. So I think permitting and centralization are probably the biggest two I would point to.

56:07Scott Galloway:I struggle with, and I want to get your thoughts on this, I struggle on whether SpaceX is a good or a bad thing. And the answer is probably yes. The wealth creation, the innovation, the economic growth, the inspiration is just inspiring. At the same time, I feel a lot of it is manufactured scarcity, the archetype of heroism resulting in what feels like could be a pretty big transfer of wealth from retail investors to an even smaller group of people, thereby increasing income inequality and an economy that seems to be more about finding a way to do ultimately a bag drop. I'm curious to just get your views on the, if you will, SpaceX and the first trillionaire, the goods, you know, the positives and the negatives of that.

57:07I will just say as a Brit here, it's interesting that at least for a large number of Americans, they are invested in the stock market. So if SpaceX is a huge success, they're going to share to that, sharing that to an extent. Whereas in the UK, that is much less true. So if Elon Musk and SpaceX make a huge amount of money, that is going to be much less shared via the stock market for people in the UK and Europe. But yeah, it's a really tricky one. The rhetorical impact of the existence of a trillionaire is obviously enormous. And I can understand why there has been such a reaction to that number and that event as crossing that line.

57:46but at the same time my general view on things like inequality and wealth is that if people do share in the proceeds I don't think it should matter that a small number of individuals hold a large amount of that wealth. Now I don't think the concentration that the amount held by that small number should keep going up but my general view is that if innovation wealth and the incentives of creating innovation wealth lead everyone to get richer, then I'm broadly agnostic about that. And I would say there's decent evidence that living standards for those in the bottom 10 % of the US have also been doing reasonably well over the relatively recent years, certainly better than the bottom 10 % of the UK.

58:34So yeah, I understand why the existence of the first trillionaire, causes so much anger and sense of injustice. But my hope would be that regulation redistribution ensures that as broad a section of society as possible can still benefit from this.

58:53Scott Galloway:John Byrne Murdoch is a columnist and the chief data reporter for the Financial Times. John, I love this conversation. Thanks for your time today. Thank you so much for having me.

59:11Scott Galloway:This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez and Laura Janair. Cami Reek is our social producer. Bianca Rosario Ramirez is our video editor. And Drew Burrows is our technical director. Thank you for listening to the PropG pod from PropG Media.

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