The Geopolitical Fallout of Trump’s Tariffs — with Ian Bremmer

26:35And maybe he would even whisper in my ear, I've always been in love with you. Check out new episodes of Heavyweight on Apple Podcasts.

26:50so this has dominated the headlines and i find that the u.s we're narcissists we we want to talk about ourselves and we also i would say struggle with or suffer from an idolatry of the dollar so if the nasdaq goes down you know that dominates the headlines over anything else uh catch us up for those of us who have been distracted from what's going on in ukraine and in Gaza. Give us a sense for what has happened over the last four, eight weeks as we have been totally distracted with discussions of the market falling 10 percent. Well, let me start with the biggest news this week, which is what's happening in Iran.

27:31So you probably saw that the Israeli prime minister, I can make a transition here, just came to the Oval Office. And, you know, He had said, we're proactively taking all of our tariffs off the United States, zeroing them out. And Netanyahu, of course, thought his great friend who doesn't really like him, but nonetheless has certainly been a big supporter, Donald Trump, he's going to come to the Oval and the U.S. will announce that those tariffs will also be removed. And that did not happen. Instead, what happened was the U.S. said, we're going to keep them on. And by the way, you should be really appreciative because we spend so much money in aid for your military, billions of dollars a year, by the way.

28:17Also said Turkey, Erdogan, my great friend, so trusted, really appreciate what he's doing for us in Syria, which, of course, the Israelis are on the other side of. and then said, by the way, we're going to open direct negotiations with Iran, with the Iranian government, which, by the way, is not actually true. The Iranians said they would do indirect talks through Oman, but that if those initial talks went well, they'd be willing to do direct talks with the U.S., which is new. It is actually a concession and is exactly not what the Israeli prime minister wanted to hear. So, I mean, his his meeting in the Oval wasn't quite as bad as Zelensky's a month ago when Vance beat him up and everyone went nuts.

29:04But it was it was the worst trip that Netanyahu has had to the United States since the war. There's no question about that. I mean, in a long, long time. Barely registered in the Western media. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I figured I mean. And so you now have the United States saying they're going to start negotiations with Iran directly. directly. And they're going to see if, I mean, Iran's in a very, very weak position. One of Iran's remaining proxy fighters in Iraq, the Islamic resistance in Iraq that has been part of the attacks on U.S. troops and others in the region, they have said that they're going to voluntarily disarm because the Americans said they were going to blow the crap out of them.

29:50so uh you've got the u.s fighting the houthis that was the whole signal gate thing from a couple of weeks ago um and that hasn't been very successful so far but certainly trying to deal with that now you have the americans hezbollah is gone israel took care of them hamas has obviously been blown up consistently over the last year plus um and now you have the u.s going to the iranians and saying we're willing to negotiate. And if it doesn't work out, there's going to be hell to pay. But the intention is not to engage in military strikes. The intention is to try to see if you can do something better, something bigger and broader and more lasting than the JCPOA, the nuclear deal that was signed under Obama.

30:37That was a multilateral deal. This would be a bilateral deal. But that's probably the most important thing that has changed in the last few weeks on the geopolitical front. Ukraine. Ukraine. So the Ukrainians, I mean, the news today is that there were two Chinese citizens that the Ukrainians captured that were fighting with Russia. It's a non-issue. It's not like the People's Liberation Army had sent them there. There are Americans that citizens happen to be fighting in Ukraine, too. And that's because they have the right to leave and travel and whatever. The Ukrainians have accepted the ceasefire terms provided by Trump with no conditions.

31:20The Russians have not. And that is something that is increasingly irritating Trump. He's been more than willing to engage directly with Putin. There's been a lot of back and forth between Putin's advisers and cabinet, including the head of his sovereign wealth fund, Dmitriev, who just actually came. He was sanctioned and has a visa suspended, but he was just allowed to come in. An exception made a few days ago to the White House where he had good conversations with Steve Witkoff, the special envoy and others. So the Russians are very interested in doing a deal with the Americans and getting investment from the Americans and pulling sanctions off, of course.

32:07But they have not been willing to accept American terms for a ceasefire. And Trump has now said a couple of times, you know, I'm not I'm running out of patience here. So you need to accept a ceasefire. And it doesn't require me pulling sanctions off. And it doesn't require Zelensky leaving office because he's there and you've got to deal with him or else I'm going to put much tougher sanctions against Russia. He has not yet at least said, or else I'm going to send much more military support to Ukraine, something he had said before he was elected, hasn't come back to that. But certainly Zelensky's position with Trump in the U.S.

32:54today is dramatically better and more normalized than it was when he visited the White House in that shambolic meeting a few weeks ago. What's actually happened on the ground over the last couple of months in Ukraine? They've lost a tiny amount of territory. The Russians continue to make territorial gains, but every month they're making smaller and smaller gains. So you would say that the front lines have mostly held. The exception is that small amount of territory inside Russia around Kursk that the Ukrainians had suddenly quite surprisingly taken with the cost of about 40 ,000 men being redeployed to that area.

33:33Most of those men have now had to withdraw, and the Russians have retaken almost all of their territory. You said on a previous broadcast that, you know, this was just not sustainable for Ukraine. And I like the Lincoln quote that you can't win a war without public support, and you can't lose a war with it. Has the mood changed at all in Ukraine? I mean, at some point in its buff of World War II history, it strikes me that Russia's core confidence is the willingness to endure a lot of pain. Do you see any evidence over the last couple of months as this kind of meat grinder continues to grind on that this war is losing support in Russia?

34:12Or is it the same as it always was and you still hold to Ukraine as, you know, running on borrowed time? I hold to both, but there have been small shifts in Russia, less of a shift. The Russians have just finished yet another call up of reservists, of troops, hundreds of thousands, which they do every year. But they had no problem in getting those numbers. They're also spending a lot more money on getting troops to the front. They've increased the bonus salaries dramatically, you know, sort of 50x what the average Russian worker could expect in an entry level job. And that's made a difference, too.

34:48certainly no demonstrations on the ground in Russia or any opposition to what you're seeing, despite the fact that they've had like a million casualties, which is just an astonishing number. Again, not dead. I mean, dead is more in the 100 ,000 plus. But I mean, still, I mean, the impact that has on society in Russia is so meaningful. And it just shows how much control Putin has over the country, over the information networks, all of that. Now, for Ukraine, It's interesting. Militarily, they're still going to run out of steam come summer. And certainly they're having a harder time with their own raising of reserves.

35:30And, you know, they're they're only they still haven't. I mean, the age of the call up, I think, went down from 28 to 25, but it's they have been very reluctant to go to 21 or 18. They're just it's enormously unpopular. And that's problematic for them. Zelensky's popularity, which had been trending downward somewhat, though it was still like in the 50s, 60s, is now back up to high 70s on the back of that trip to the White House, where he stood strong and refused to end up signing what was seen as an exploitative critical minerals deal and giving back as good as he got effectively from Trump and Vance.

36:15So if there were elections in the near term, and constitutionally there can't be because there's martial law because a big piece of their territory is occupied by foreign invaders, but if there were elections today, it's very clear that Zelensky would win. And I think that that actually makes it easier for him to start negotiations with the Russians and not fear that he's going to be ousted domestically. So he actually has somewhat more flexibility diplomatically, even though his military position hasn't improved. That meeting was such a low point for us being in the U.S. Let me outline what might be a Pollyanna scenario.

36:54And you tell me if there's any veracity or any hope that this might come to fruition. The EU is a$19 trillion economy combined. Russia is a$2 trillion economy. It's smaller than Canada's economy. That if the recognition that the military umbrella of the U.S. no longer applies, that we're not going to weigh in, and that we have become an inconsistent sclerotic partner, that, you know, rich Uncle Sam cannot be counted on. He's lost his shit. and the EU for the first time, Europe becomes a union, increases their defense budget as they've announced from 1.9 to 3%. They don't have the surface to air capabilities.

37:36They still need the U.S., but they do have a great manufacturing base. French, U.K. and German companies, you know, if Germany makes an amazing car, they should be able to make an amazing tank and they do. And they're able to actually push back on Russia without the aid of the U.S. and, you know, glory to the EU. Am I being, am I smoking my own crack pipe here? No, no. I mean, there's definitely a lot more that the Europeans can and should be doing. And they've become more unified around the EU because of Trump. I mean, Trump is a great unifier. He's unifying the Canadians who, you know, now the liberals are likely to win.

38:21Pauliev, the conservative, was a slam dunk. And Trudeau, of course, after 10 years, had lost all of his credibility. And yet the Canadians have completely unified against the United States. Mexico, Claudia Scheinbaum, 85 % approval ratings right now. Why? Anger with the United States, the EU much stronger now, favoring the EU spending more, supporting their own defensive capabilities, supporting investing more in technology and hitting the Americans back on tariffs because of what they see coming from the U.S., not just in terms of economic policy, but also in terms of undermining their own democracies in Europe, algorithmically, direct support from Elon, from Vance, from others, for people like the AFD who are considered a neo-Nazi party in Germany, and support for Russia.

39:18So all of those things are making the Europeans do more. But is more enough? Is more enough? Because, Scott, the Europeans have not spent on defense for 40 years, right? Almost 40 years. And so it's not like, okay, now they're going to spend 3%. Okay, so how long is it going to take them to get to the point they can defend themselves? Now, defending themselves against a$2 trillion Russian economy, frankly, isn't all that hard. Russia will do asymmetric things. They will engage in cyber attacks. They will engage in espionage. They will blow up critical infrastructure. They're already doing that.

39:59They'll use a network on Telegram to order a whole bunch of local citizens to commit crimes, arson, vandalism, you name it. But they're not gonna send tanks into the Baltics. They're not gonna send tanks into Poland. They get crushed. So that's not what I'm worried about. But can Europe rebuild fast enough that they could defend the Ukrainians in a Russian war that the Russians are completely committed to? And the answer there, I think, is no. I think that answer is no. And I also don't know whether the Europeans spending more on defense are going to stay aligned enough to allow them to become independent from the U.S.

40:46defensively in five and 10 years time, given that there is a vastly greater level of security concern in countries that are not economically performing well, unlike the United States, that aren't productive, that don't have big tech, that don't have entrepreneurship. I mean, if you're Spain or Italy or even France, how much are you prepared to spend in your tightly contested budget on long-term defense? Are you willing to spend the way the U.S. does? The answer is probably not. What about Germany? They've made some enormous announcements to get rid of their debt break, but the new government that's coming in, assuming they can put the government together, And by the way, everyone assumes that Mertz is going to have no problem putting that government together.

41:33There's like probably a 10 percent chance that he fails in constructing a government. Right. And then we're in a very, very different place. But assuming he does in the next month ish, that the fact that they have the debt break gone doesn't mean that they're going to spend all that money. Doesn't mean they're prepared to actually change EU borrowing rules to allow them to. It's going to be a very weak government. So as I look forward three, four, five years, I still see a significant likelihood that in many of the countries you're talking about, we're going to end up with more Trump aligned, Orban aligned, Millet aligned, Bukele aligned governments that get elected in in Europe, which weakens the EU, which makes it harder to talk about a collective security among the European states themselves, a coalition of the willing.

42:24We'll be right back.

42:30Mercury knows that to an entrepreneur, every financial move means more. An international wire means working with the best contractors on any continent. A credit card on day one means creating an ad campaign on day two. And a business loan means loading up on inventory for Black Friday. That's why Mercury offers banking that does more, all in one place, so that doing just about anything with your money feels effortless. Visit mercury.com to learn more. Mercury is a financial technology company, not a bank. Banking services provided through Choice Financial Group, Column N.A., and Evolve Bank and Trust members FDIC.

43:09The pumpkin spice latte is back at Starbucks. Crafted with our signature espresso and real pumpkin sauce. Then topped with whipped cream, cinnamon, and nutmeg. The PSL. Get it while it's hot. Or iced. Only at Starbucks. What do walking 10 ,000 steps every day, eating five servings of fruits and veggies, and getting eight hours of sleep have in common? They're all healthy choices. But do all healthier choices really pay off? With prescription plans from CVS Caremark, they do. Their plan designs give your members more choice, which gives your members more ways to get on, stay on, and manage their meds.

43:48And that helps your business control your costs, because healthier members are better for business. Go to cmk.co slash access to learn more about helping your members stay adherent. That's cmk.co slash ACCESS.

44:10We're back with more with our good friend Ian Bremmer. So you brought up Canada. I'm curious to get your thoughts on Prime Minister Carney. Well, he's a friend. I mean, I'm completely biased in that regard. I've known him for a long, long time. You strike me as very Canadian. Look, I mean, most Canadians don't strike me as very Canadian. No, no, you strike me as Canadian. Oh, me? Oh, 100%. What the hell does that mean? I think I'm almost offended by you saying that. What do you mean by that? Super friendly, super nice, educated, pretty easy to get along with. Okay. Exceptionally Caucasian. If you said like a bit of a weenie, I would be really a little upset, you know, that would be.

44:54How do you get 100 drunk Canadian fraternity brothers out of your pool? Hey guys, would you please get out of the pool? I love, by the way, I love Canada. I was conceived in Canada. Let's bring this back to me, Ian. Okay, good. Where in Canada were you conceived? In Toronto. And then my parents were sick of the weather and seven months pregnant. My mom loaded up her Austin mini metro with my dad and they moved to San Diego. I'm actually thinking, and I'm going to rope you into this. I want to do an I Love Canada tour. And I want to get together. Yeah, I would be good for that. You would. I'm thinking Toronto, Montreal, Montreal in the summer, Vancouver, pick a fourth city.

45:28But I would like to do an I Love Canada tour. Anyways, you're signed up and you're included. What do you think of Carney? Well, look, again, I mean, I say it because - As a fellow Canadian. As a fellow Canadian. Yeah, exactly. He is, I mean, intellectually, economically, he is a generational mind for Canada on the global stage. When he was central bank governor in Canada, when he was central bank governor in the UK, right, through Brexit, this was a guy that was respected incredibly highly by every other major interlocutor. By the by the entire G7, by all of the CEOs of the financial institutions, by the central bankers.

46:12I mean, they all have a lot of time for him. He's the one Canadian that Macron seriously respects at a high level. Christine Lagarde thinks the world of Mark Carney, you know, all of that. And I mean, at a time when the Canadians are facing an unprecedented challenge economically from their most important trade partner, you understand why so many people are suddenly flipping towards him. And, you know, until very recently, we really thought Paul Yev was going to win because, again, the liberals have so outlived their welcome in Canada. But it's interesting bringing Carney in and getting rid of Chrystia Freeland, who was the deputy prime minister, is what the United States didn't do and what the U.S.

46:59needed to do. Right. You had Biden who had completely outstayed his welcome and was completely incapable and incoherent at the end. And instead, they brought in someone who was basically undifferentiated from Biden when asked, what would you do differently? The answer was absolutely nothing. This is an anti incumbent wave, people. You can't run an incumbent. And Biden ran an incumbent and lost even against a very unpopular Trump. and the Canadians got rid of their incumbent, got rid of the deputy. Now they're running an outsider who's probably gonna win. And I think he'll actually, he'll end up having a fairly unified Canada, even though it's a different system.

47:42It's a parliamentary system and he might have to govern in coalition because everyone in Canada is so incredibly angry at the United States, so incredibly unnecessary the fight that the Americans have decided to pick with them. I mean, part of the problem I have with what Trump is doing is that he is picking every fight simultaneously, right? So like if you want to go and reorganize the global trade order at a time when the U.S. economy is particularly strong, then you should also be leaning into U.S. industrial policy at home. So don't get rid of the CHIPS Act. Expand the CHIPS Act. that was too small to begin with, right?

48:22Don't go after American universities. Expand funding in American universities because you need the best talent from around the world not to stay there, but to come to the United States. Don't undermine rule of law. You need people believing in rule of law and contracts. You want, in other words, make the consistent bet. But the only consistent thing is that Trump wants to beat up on everybody all at the same time. And that, unfortunately, even for the most powerful country in the world is going to end up hurting us a lot. And beating up on the Canadians was, you know, really, among a lot of stupid things, it was the stupidest thing that we could do.

49:02Yeah, the people, you mean the people who hit us in the Iran hostage crisis, largest undefended border? Just talk about head up your ass. I agree with you. I love that saying that I've been quoting a lot. It's attributed to Churchill, but I think it was actually Victor Hugo. The only thing worse than fighting with your allies is fighting without them. We've essentially decided we're not even just going to fight with allies because we're, to your point, fighting with all of them at the same time. We're now fighting without our allies. I apologize for hopping around here, but you mentioned that a lot of nations, unfortunately, or the world seems to be headed towards people like Orban.

49:39I've actually been quite inspired by some of the protests in Hungary. Do you think that's more show? My sense is that's pretty powerful. What are your thoughts? Yeah, absolutely. I mean, you know, Orban has, first of all, his economy has performed very badly. And so the people are angry about that. He is his corruption and his willingness to control with a group of oligarchs, key industries, as well as the media is something that is not appreciated among rank and file Hungarians. specifically not in the cities again it's kind of like moscow right when you had problems with putin it was only the urban center he they did very well in the rural areas in the smaller towns hungary it's the same thing but in budapest itself very easy now to rally large large groups of hungarians specifically against orban so he's doing very badly um but i mean you know getting rid of him in an environment where he controls so much of the judicial power so much of the media power so much in how elections are conducted.

50:43You just don't have the checks and balances there. So it's much harder to get rid of them. Look, Turkey, there have been really big demonstrations in Istanbul, not in other parts of the country because they haven't been allowed. And Turkey has just taken a complete big step, a leap into full on dictatorship, right, where they have arrested the opposition leader who was about to announce his own run for the presidency and was the one guy that could have beaten Erdogan, and now he's not going to be able to run. And you know what? Trump says Erdogan's his best friend. The Europeans need him, so they're not complaining very much.

51:19He's going to get away with it. So as we wrap up here, let's come back home, and I think of you as someone who's an expert on geopolitics and domestic politics isn't your focus, but you're able to do something I think 99 % of us are not able to do, and I'm certainly not able to do, and that is you're able to separate your emotions from the facts. How do you see this shaping up? Is Trump's current policy so far shaping up for, and I know it's early, for 26 and the general fulcrum or the general power structure between the Democrats and Republicans right now? Any observations? Yeah. Well, first of all, I mean, you're very kind to say that, Scott.

51:57I don't know that I can always separate my emotions from my analysis, but I try to at least be aware of when they're hitting it, you know, and be honest about it when it comes. It's like when you just asked me about like, you know, Canada and I'm like, okay, well, let me tell you, like, I've got an emotional connection there. I, on the United States, you know, I think that Trump has an opportunity here. I don't know that he's going to take it. You know, you and I both know that the Republican voting base is no longer the free trade, certainly not neocon U.S. lead the world thing. It is working class, middle class, especially non-college educated, and especially men.

52:41And you talk to a lot of these people, you inspire a lot of these people, especially young people around the country, which I really appreciate. And I think that Trump needs to lean into that. So the markets are taking a hit. Okay. And portfolios are getting hit. Okay. Well, a lot of the people I just mentioned don't have portfolios, right? So if you made that a feature, you would then also say, we're not doing the extended tax cuts for the highest bracket. We're going to snap those back. And yeah, there's going to be inflation. And these tariffs, to rebalance, we're going to have to, the corporations are going to get hit because they've taken advantage.

53:26They've taken all the profits. It's the foreigners have taken advantage. They've done so well. But what about our own middle and working classes? We're going to redistribute the sales tax that we collect on these tariffs. We're going to redistribute that to the poor and the middle class. And I don't think he's going to do that. I was going to say, who are we talking about here? What? I was going to say, who are we talking about here? Well, you know, at the end of the day, there's a real it's not like Trump used to be a Democrat. It's not like he has an ideological ideological true north. Like, I mean, he's going to make his money anyway.

54:02So why not go with the people that really love him and deep MAGA? Right. I mean, these are people that actually are hurting that he needs to do more for. And that can't just be throw paper towels at them. But, you know, when I look at what we're seeing from Make America Healthy Again and the food assistance, SNAP, you know, I see, OK, we're going to nudge. We're going to allow certain states to not give those benefits for like, you know, soda and for junk food. OK, I'm fine with that. I mean, I'd love to bring down our type two diabetes in this country and obesity. But they're also reducing the benefits.

54:38They were also taking away what the Biden administration did to expand them. That's crazy. Like, you can't hurt the poor people in this environment. You've got to help the poor people. And so I think because Trump, I mean, Trump has gotten it right for the majority of the country on the border and illegal immigration. And he's gotten it right for the majority of the country on identity politics and anti-wokeism. But he is failing most of the country on redistribution to the average American, to the people like my family growing up. He's not helping those people economically. And if he got the trifecta, then he would actually have a shot in the midterms.

55:22Absent that, you probably expect the Democrats come back and take the House. I think you are calling on his better angels. I'm convinced that those first two are nothing but weapons of mass distraction from his ultimate goal, which is to continue to enrich the 1%. That's who he sees at the end of the day as his core constituency. And that our – The tariffs don't help them. Well – They really don't. They hate them. I mean, you talk to like Steve Schwartzman, right? And ask him what he doesn't like about Trump. And the number one thing he'll tell you is I hate his trade policy. And that was months ago.

55:59That was before the election. Now, oh, my God, these people, their hair's on fire, right? In my sense, tariffs are just blanket stupid and hurt everyone. They especially hurt the poor because who spend a disproportionate amount of their money on discretionary items. That, sure, the wealthy will take a hit to their stock market portfolio. But at the end of the day, I think the Republican Party and Trump's genius is an ability to convince the lower 99 that he's serving their interests because at some point they might be in the top one. But if I upload my tax returns into ChatGPT and say, under the proposed Trump tax plan, what happens to me?

56:40And the answer is, you know, champagne and cocaine. Things only get better for me based on his proposed tax policy. I think tariffs hurt everyone. It's a fair point. But they hurt poor people a lot more. That's just blanket stupid. I wouldn't argue that's any sort of class warfare one side against the other. I take your point, Scott. And again, given that that's why I'm saying in order to deal with that, you've got to do a redistribution. I do I do think that long term tariffs also have the capacity to as for the most powerful country in the world to redirect investment in capital into the United States.

57:15And I do think that there are blanket tariffs like this. That never works. When has no no no no. I'm assuming that you use them to actually negotiate and force weaker countries to do deals. But my understanding is since 2009, we've put in place more thoughtful individual tariffs that are asymmetrically advantaged to us than any other nation. Three times more than Germany, five times more than France. We've been doing exactly what you're talking about. Brazil gets tariffed 82 % on their sugar. Our sugar gets tariffed 12%. Japan pays 25 % tariffs to deliver trucks into us. They charge us 0%. And we're mostly – I mean there are counter examples to that, of course.

57:56But also, you know, and that's why we get so. We're not the victim here. We're the oppressed. No, no, no. We're clearly not the victim. And services, we run massive surpluses and our economy is tilted towards services. And why would we want to go back to manufacturing, given where the global economy is heading? We don't want to make Nikes. We want to wear them, right? What Dave Chappelle said. Absolutely. But my point here is that I don't see Trump as necessarily needing to support the top 1%. I see Trump supporting himself and his family, you know, and a small number of donors. That's a handful of people.

58:27He's very transactional for that. I get that. But like, you know, if you want to go after you want to close the border and take out illegal immigrants, like the easiest way to do that that could build a lot of support is go after the corporations that are actually like bringing in all these. Just tax the employers. Just tax the employers. But again, he doesn't want to go after the employers or the corporations or those nice people who are. That's always been the case with immigrants. I could go from I think illegal immigration is the most profitable part of immigration. We've turned a blind eye.

58:59It's a real problem. So it turns out that we are more kleptocratic than authoritarian. And that is probably, I guess, ultimately better for the American civilians, but not by much. OK, respond to my conspiracy theory here. Trump sets up essentially a Swiss banking account where you can put money in, and the person who puts money in can call you and say, by the way, I'm about to make you the wealthiest man in the world. What do you think about withdrawing support from Ukraine? By the way, I'm also going to make you the wealthiest man in the world. Maybe do something to thrust potential trading partners into our arms.

59:37my conspiracy theory Xi, China and Putin Russia have committed to buying massive amounts of the Trump coin in exchange for him levying a set of decisions that see just massive political and economic advantage to Russia and to China. I would ask the following. If Putin and Xi had been elected president and vice president what would be different about what's going on right now? Uh, yeah, me know like the Trump coin. I mean, that is that's obviously yet one more completely opacity driven means for corruption and enrichment of Trump and his wife. And this that's not where the country should be heading.

1:00:23I mean, the country would look very different if it was run by she and by Russia. I mean, first of all, we wouldn't be announcing a hundred and and twenty four percent tariffs against China. Right. So, I mean, I think that let's let's take the China piece out of your conspiracy right away. He's done a lot more with the Russians, but I have you don't need if you don't need a conspiracy theory to explain something, don't use one. It's additive. And, you know, it's complicated. It's a complicating factor. There are a lot of reasons for Trump to be doing what he's doing with Putin, irrespective of that, right?

1:01:05I mean, he doesn't like the EU. He wants the EU to go away because they are a strong, coordinated group with trade competency that undermines his influence on the global states. He wants to deal with a bunch of individual, smaller, weaker countries much more than he wants to deal with the EU. And by the way, Putin agrees with that completely. So also when he meets with the European leaders, it's like Obama. They are educated. They're a feat. They don't respect him. They snigger behind his back. He got the intelligence on those conversations. He knows what they really say about him. Putin actually, like MBS, kind of treats him just like one of the guys.

1:01:43So, I mean, Trump actually does enjoy talking with Putin more than he does enjoy talking with Macron or or or Schultz or Starmer. And so I think that gets you a fair amount of the way. And then the fact it is true that if you look at the Riyadh conversations that the Americans had with the Russians a couple of months ago, Russia sent a couple of cabinet ministers, but also sent a businessman who was said to be an advisor to Putin. But he also happened to have bought coincidentally a really expensive apartment from Trump that he spent a lot in Florida. How did we get here? Literally, how did we get here?

1:02:25Right. So, I mean, I do accept, Scott, that like with MBS, which is where Trump is again making the first trip, that if there is a deal made with Russia, the cash register will be open. That unlike the Europeans who can't deliver money directly to Trump and family, you know, the Gulfies can and the Russians can and they will. But I don't think China's any part of that deal remotely. Isn't that, don't we just start circling the drain when you allow certain levels of corruption that the incentives are just for everyone to be corrupt? That if you decide not to buy Trump coin or send Trump money, you end up on the wrong side of the largest person, the strongest military in the world.

1:03:08Doesn't this just, isn't this just a downward spiral? I really don't like the fact that the United States is setting the example for kleptocracy. I don't like the fact that the wealthiest man in the world, who you are no fan of, is, you know, occupying a position of authority in the United States, in the White House, at the same time that he is running and owning those companies, however well or badly. um and i remember when he met with modi during the state visit at blair house so you know part of the white house right and he's asked trump is then asked in a press conference by a member of the journal the media said so when when elon met with modi was that in his official capacity or was it in his private sector capacity to advance his business interests and trump god bless him, actually answered honestly, he said, I don't know.

1:04:10I mean, how could he know, right? Neither both. Does it matter, right? And I mean, so we have this, it's a very serious problem. Most powerful country in the world and the most wealthy person in the world is conducting business and government affairs simultaneously interlinkedly. That's not okay. And he's going after Schumer saying he's corrupt and has fraud and has given no evidence at the same time that he's actually, his companies are benefiting from billions of dollars of direct contracts from Pentagon and NASA. I mean, that's clearly a conflict of interest that we should have no part of. Yeah.

1:04:56And calling Senator Kelly an astronaut and an outstanding patriotic trader. But anyways, You're an amazing father, Elon. Ian, give me something to be hopeful for here. What have you seen recently that gives you hope? I've started to see. So I think the markets do create a level of honesty in people that we don't necessarily see on a day-to-day basis. So the adult in the cabinet right now is the Dow and the NASDAQ, isn't it? I mean, basically, right? I mean, Jamie Dimon is saying he sounds a lot differently this week than he did at Davos. Right. And I don't I don't think that is courage. I think that is, you know, his deep, his deep strategic revealed interest being, you know, made public.

1:05:50And if we could do more of that, I mean, there's got to be pain. There's got to be crisis. But there might just be enough economic incompetence in all of this crisis to start hearing a little bit more. pushback. And I think that would be a useful thing. Look, I mean, the fact that Elon is really at odds with Trump Navarro on the most disruptive thing they've done so far is helpful, frankly. The most disruptive thing being immigration? What are you referring to? No, on tariffs, on tariffs. On tariffs, excuse me. Thank you. Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, the world's leading political risk research and consulting firm, and GZero Media, a company dedicated to providing intelligent and engaging coverage of international affairs.

1:06:36He is also the author of 11 books, including the New York Times bestsellers, Us Versus Them, The Failure of Globalism, and The Power of Crisis, How Three Threats and Our Response Will Change the World. He joins us from his office in, is it Midtown or Flatiron? What would you call it? A nomad. It's called nomad officially. Nomad. Very cool. Very cool. Ian, it is always good to hear from you. And let's be honest, you are a Canadian spy. You joined the ranks of Andrew Ross Sorkin. I believe you're working for the Canadian government. It's okay. You will soon again be our allies. Everyone can see me and Canadian spy Ian Bremmer and Andrew Ross Sorkin.

1:07:17We're going to do our I Love Canada tour. You're in. You're committing right now, right? I am. I am committing to that. You get to pick the first city. Is it Montreal or Toronto? No, if it's I love Canada, you got to start with Toronto, of course. Toronto. All right, brother. It's always good to see you. Okay, be good, man. Thanks, Ian.

1:07:45Algebra of Happiness on our other podcast, Prof G Markets. I don't know if you've heard, I have several podcasts. That's right. Anyways, on Profit and Markets, Ed Elson and I interviewed Gary Stevenson, who is this economist who's sort of blown up on TikTok, who is what I call a class trader. And I say that in the most complimentary way. And that is he's calling bullshit on wealthy people and is promoting what I think is a basic truth. And that is, despite what the 1 % and the incumbents will tell you, the middle class is an accident. And if you don't reinvest in it constantly through a progressive tax structure and subsidies for the middle class, it goes away, folks.

1:08:21It's an accident in history. It started from 1945 to 1995, maybe. It's been eroding since then. And if you don't reinvest in it, it goes away. And I love this guy, and I think he's fearless and out there spreading, I don't know, God's gospel. But he said something that really struck me, and that is that young men, I asked him what advice we give to young men, that essentially, unfortunately, the likelihood that you end up wealthy is a function of how rich your parents are. And I always say it's a function of when and where you're born, but he's right. It's more a function of how wealthy your parents are.

1:09:00You can be born in any nation, and if your parents are rich, you're probably going to do okay. You still have as much agency in the U.S. as any country in the world. The mobility has not gotten worse here, but it's not gotten better. And that is 11 % of the people in the lowest quintile make it to the top quintile. That hasn't gone up or down. But what has changed is that if you're the 89 % that don't make it into the top quintile, you're reminded 210 times a day that you're failing. There's this notion that anyone can get rich with crypto, or we all know someone really talented that ended up at NVIDIA at the right time or becomes an influencer and makes a shit ton of money.

1:09:41But the vast majority of people don't get that lucky or are just not that remarkable. And there's tremendous shame. In Alain de Bouton, the British philosopher said that the downside to a meritocracy is that, or the belief that we live in a meritocracy, is that if you don't make it, that it's your fault, that you screwed up. And what Gary said really struck me that there's real dignity and young men should feel good about, can they find a way to make a decent living, take care of themselves, take care of their kids. They don't necessarily need to have a plan. They don't even need to be wealthy, but if they can put a roof over their family's head, provide a warm, loving environment for them, that that is something to be really proud of.

1:10:28And as I think about it, I think these algorithms have been trained to tell young people, specifically young men, that if they aren't partying in St. Bart's and on a private jet, that they have fucked up. That in a meritocratic society, in an economy with all these magnificent seven superstar companies, that you should be rich. And if you're not, it's your fault. And most of the time, all of the time, it's not your fault. That a lot of your success for wealthy people is not your fault. But if you're not one of those people that manages to get to the top quintile, that there's real dignity, there's real pride, and there's real reward in being someone trying to live a virtuous life that takes care of themselves and takes care of their family.

1:11:14That that should be – we need to restore this notion that that's enough and that there's real honor in that. This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez. Our intern is Dan Shallon. Drew Burrows is our technical director. Thank you for listening to the Prop G pod from the Vox Media Podcast Network. We will catch you on Saturday for No Mercy, No Malice, as read by George Hahn. And please follow our Prop G Markets pod wherever you get your pods for new episodes every Monday and Thursday.

1:11:58and speed. PDF spaces is all you need. Do hours of research in an instant with key insights from an AI assistant. Take a template with a click. Now your Prezo looks super slick. Close that deal. Yeah, you won. Do that, doing that, did that, done. Now you can do that, do that with Acrobat. Now you can do that, do that with the all new Acrobat. It's time to do your best work with the all new Adobe Acrobat Studio. Support for this show comes from Airbus. It took 100 years for electric vehicles to catch on. Modern solar panels? Half a century. Lithium batteries? Decades to go from their debut to daily use.

1:12:37It's a pattern. Energy tech breaks through, stalls, and then something tips the scales. But for every success, there are even more almosts. So what if there was a breakthrough sitting at this crossroads right now? SAF, or sustainable aviation fuel could forever change the future of flight. Learn more about how Airbus is contributing to accelerate this journey at fly.airbus.com slash the flight path. That's the sound of the fully electric Audi Q6 e-tron and the quiet confidence of ultra-smooth handling. The elevated interior reminds you this is more than an EV. This is electric performance redefined.

1:13:22you