The Week: Iran, IPO Mania, and the New American Dream

0:00Support for the show comes from Odoo. Running a business takes everything you've got. And a lot of the tools out there that are supposed to make your life easier just aren't great talking to each other. And that means you end up having to toggle between a dozen different apps and services just to keep the lights on. Enough of that. Now there's Odoo, the all-in-one fully integrated platform that might actually help you get it all done. Thousands of businesses have made the switch, so why not you? Try Odoo for free at odoo.com. That's O-D-O-O dot com.

0:33Support for this show comes from Odoo. Running a business is hard enough, so why make it harder with a dozen different apps that don't talk to each other? Introducing Odoo. It's the only business software you'll ever need. It's an all-in-one, fully integrated platform that makes your work easier. CRM, accounting, inventory, e-commerce, and more. And the best part? Odoo replaces multiple expensive platforms for a fraction of the cost. That's why over thousands of businesses have made the switch. So why not you? Try Odoo for free at odoo.com. That's O-D-O-O dot com.

1:14Marvel Television's Wonder Man. An eight-episode series. Now streaming on Disney+. A superhero remake. Not exactly what we'd expect from an Oscar-winning director. Action! Simon Williams, audition for Wonder Man. I'm going to need you to sign this. Assuming you don't have superpowers. I'll never work again if anyone found out. My lips are sealed. Marvel Television's Wonder Man. All eight episodes now streaming only on Disney+.

1:44George Hahn:Welcome to The Week from Prof G Media, where we break down what mattered and what it all means. I'm George Hahn, and it's Friday, June 12th. Today, we get into what the Iran war is revealing about American power. Then, nearly a trillion dollars in new stock is about to hit the market. And finally, why optimizing your life might be the surest way to miss it. Let's get into it. This week, Scott sat down with two of the sharpest foreign policy minds alive. Anne Applebaum, Pulitzer Prize-winning historian and staff writer at The Atlantic, and Fiona Hill, former National Security Council official and one of the world's leading experts on Russia and geopolitics.

2:34George Hahn:And after more than 100 days of war with Iran, neither sounded particularly optimistic about where things are headed. The IRGC is a car dealership. Trump is a car purchaser browsing for cars. and Trump is trying to negotiate and has accidentally or has let the car dealership know that he needs a car to get home or that he's playing poker and his cards are turned upside down and he has a weak hand. Fiona, your thoughts? I think that's absolutely true. And I think, you know, the other part of your analogy here is that Trump also thinks that he's the seller, not just the buyer. And that is the problem because he's always telling the Iranians what he would do.

3:11And in real time, he's laying out everything, everything that he's thinking. So, of course, there is no incentive whatsoever other for them to make a deal on any kind of basis right now because they have no certainty, no assurances of what the outcome is going to be. So Trump every single day confounds his own ability to make any progress.

3:31George Hahn:On the war in Ukraine, the story that deserved far more attention than it got this week, Anne had just returned from Kiev and told us her report. Something has fundamentally shifted. The real interesting part of this story is not so much that Ukraine has gone from defense to offense is that Ukraine has changed completely the way this war is being fought. And so what you have to understand about the Ukrainian front line is that it's a kind of 20-mile-wide zone. It's not like a line that people are fighting against. It's a 20-mile-wide zone, which is now completely transparent. And the Ukrainians can see everything in it because of their extraordinary, the literally millions of drones that they've built in the last couple of years.

4:19They have reconnaissance drones, they have short-range drones, long-range drones. They can see the whole front line. And every time any Russian truck or car or person comes into the zone, they see that person and they can hit them. And these huge numbers of people dying, a thousand a day, 30 ,000 a month, or being dying or being wounded, are coming from the fact that despite the existence of this zone, the Russians have until now continued sending people in it. And, you know, even at the beginning of this year and late last year, by doing that, they were able to move it forward a little bit. They were, you know, so many resources were being thrown into it that they were still moving.

5:02That has now stopped completely. They cannot move forward.

5:05George Hahn:Ukraine has gone from aid recipient to security provider. Gulf states and European companies are now seeking partnerships with Ukrainian drone firms. Scott called it the third Silicon Valley. And they did it after the U.S. cut off supplies, hoping it would force a surrender. On the Russian side, Fiona laid out how Putin may well be running out of road. And in Russia, Putin is now starting to get very nervous about Russian society and perhaps the elites. I mean, we hear stories about this. I wouldn't, you know, overplay it. because Putin has all kinds of repressive capacities. But it's certainly the case that now his choices are shrinking.

5:46And, you know, as Anne has described on the front line, he's not as close as he would like to be, to be able to be taking the whole of the Donbass, which is certainly one of the intermediate goals. And he's going to have to make some tough decisions as to whether he keeps on escalating these bombardments against Kiev. And it's just a question of whether the constraints around him in terms of the number of people will continue to volunteer. Here, as Anne's described about all of the casualties here, in the last months we've seen the numbers of dead, not just injured, increasing. And in fact, it's kind of flipping now the ratio of dead to injured in a way that is very detrimental to Putin.

6:24The other thing is that oil, everyone's expecting that Russia would have benefited enormously from the increase in oil prices. But in fact, the sanctions that were imposed by the Europeans and others on Russian oil have actually constrained some of those revenues. So it's not a tipping point at this particular point, but we can see that the picture has become darker from Putin's perspective.

6:45George Hahn:And the conversation ended on a reflection on what these autocracies, Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, really have in common. Hint, it's not ideology. You know, what binds this group of autocracies to work together, and right now the most important ones are Russia, China, Iran, North Korea, you know, plus a handful of others, is really not religion and obviously it's not any ideology. So, you know, ideology doesn't matter whether the Chinese are communists and the Russians are nationalists and the Iranians have a theocracy. You know, what binds all of them is rather their dislike of and fear of the language of the liberal world.

7:31In other words, the language of rights, the language of rule of law, the language of separation of powers. You know, all of these are states that are seeking to create a kind of total environment where the regime or the leader or the ruling party controls all media, all conversation.

7:48George Hahn:Autocracies aren't winning because they're stronger. They're winning because democracies are increasingly divided, distracted, and uncertain about what they're willing to defend. And it wasn't just academics making that argument. Last week at the final stop of the Prof G Markets tour in New York, Scott posed many of the same questions to someone who spent years making these decisions from inside the Situation Room, Hillary Clinton. I think we are in a weakened position. I think Iran is in a stronger position than it was before we did this. I actually approved of the strikes on the nuclear facilities back in June a year ago.

8:32They had a clear objective. They were carried out effectively. They didn't accomplish all that they claimed, but they did accomplish enough to argue that the nuclear weapons program was set back. But now I think the Iranians are really playing a stronger hand vis-a-vis Trump. And he's kind of flummoxed. He doesn't know what to do. I mean, on his truth socially, he talks about how he doesn't find it interesting pursuing these peace negotiations. He's bored by it. And, you know, when you think about the hard work of both waging war and everything that it entails, and then trying to extricate yourself from a conflict with some sort of advantage, that's really hard work and that's not being done.

9:32George Hahn:We'll be right back after the break.

9:43Support for the show comes from Quince. Quince European linen pants and shirts are the perfect warm weather upgrade to add to your rotation starting at just$34. Their tees are soft and easy to wear. and their lightweight cotton sweaters are perfect for cooler summer nights. Plus, everything at Quince is priced 50 % to 80 % less in similar brands. Our producer Claire Miller has tried Quince and she's a fan. Claire, it's time for your personal experience. Also, let me say the highlight of the tour was meeting your parents and your sister and your girlfriend. Anyways, I'll stop there. Quince. And my dad was wearing a Quince shirt, no joke, when you met him.

10:16So we love Quince. The Miller family's big fan. Half my suitcase on the tour was Quince stuff. I love their tank tops. Their summer stuff is great. It's all a reasonable price point, high quality stuff. I love Quince. There you go. So similar to Claire, elevate your summer wardrobe. Go to quince.com slash prop G for free shipping on your order and 365 day returns. Now available in Canada too. That's quince.com slash prop G for free shipping and 365 day returns. Quince.com slash prop G.

10:54support for the show comes from linkedin if you're a small business owner you don't need me to tell you how much hiring great people matters but the time and resources you have to spend to get it right are precious commodities sourcing connecting with and screening candidates can quickly eat into time better spent on your customers that's where linkedin hiring pro comes in it's designed to be your hiring partner helping you source the right candidates faster that way you can hire with confidence without making it feel like a full-time job. LinkedIn Hiring Pro simplifies the entire process, all the way from writing your job post to shortlisting candidates and running AI-powered initial interviews.

11:28Plus, it does it all through a conversational interface where you can just describe what you're looking for in plain language. LinkedIn says nearly 60 % of hirers find someone to interview within a week. With Hiring Pro, you spend less time searching and more time connecting with the right talent. So instead of sifting through piles of resumes, You get a tight, high-quality shortlist that actually moves things forward. Join the 2.7 million small businesses using LinkedIn to hire. Get started by posting your job for free at linkedin.com slash prof. Terms and conditions apply.

12:03Support for the show comes from NetSuite. Every business is asking the same question. How do we make AI work for us? The possibilities are overwhelming. But sitting on the sidelines is not an option. since you know your competitors are already making their move. No more waiting. With NetSuite by Oracle, you can put AI to work today. NetSuite is a top-rated AI cloud ERP trusted by over 43 ,000 businesses. It's a unified suite that brings your financials, inventory commerce, HR, and CRM into a single source of truth. Now, with NetSuite AI Connector, you can use the AI of your choice to connect to your actual business data and ask every question you ever had.

12:38From key customers to cash on hand to inventory trends plus, You can automate those tiresome manual processes. Let's see your competitor do that. This isn't another bolted-on tool. It's AI built into the system that runs your business. Whether your company earns millions or even hundreds of millions, NetSuite helps you stay ahead of the pack. If your revenues are at least in the seven figures, get our free business guide, Demystifying AI, at netsuite.com slash profg. The guide is free to you at netsuite.com slash profg. Netsuite.com slash profg.

13:17George Hahn:Welcome back. Meanwhile, on Wall Street, a different kind of arms race is heating up. SpaceX goes public today, raising$75 billion in what is now officially the largest IPO in history, more than double Saudi Aramco's 2019 record. Anthropic has filed confidentially for its own offering. OpenAI is targeting September. Google announced an$85 billion equity offering, the largest public stock sale ever recorded. And Meta is reportedly planning its own raise on top of that. And if all of that weren't enough, Goldman Sachs estimates another$500 billion in shares are about to be unlocked as lock-up periods expire across the industry this year.

14:11George Hahn:Added up, nearly a trillion dollars in new equity supply is about to hit the market all at once. The question is whether there's enough money to buy all of them. My view, supply is about to flood this market. It is going to outstrip demand. The only answer after that is that prices go down. I do think that once these companies go public, that's going to signal the top, and we're going to see a very significant pullback, specifically in the AI trade, because there simply isn't enough capital to go around to keep prices propped up. Scott's take? If there's a first day pop, He knows exactly where he put his money.

14:54I'll be interested to see if they're, I don't, this isn't a prediction. I wouldn't be surprised if their pricing has to come down a bit. But I think the biggest first day pop or the biggest initial pop on the first trade is going to be Anthropic. I think the momentum, the Riz, so much about an IPO is the narrative versus the numbers. And the narrative is just strongest around Anthropic and weakest among open AI and somewhere in the middle of SpaceX. because you have Elon. He's a meme. He's great. He's great. You know, it is an exciting company. It's got kind of just, it's every eight-year-old's dream, you know, space and rockets and technology.

15:32And I think some of those animal spirits will come in around SpaceX. But if I were to rank them, I think that Anthropic has the biggest first day pop.

15:40George Hahn:While investors debate where to put the next trillion dollars, many Americans are wondering if they'll ever be able to buy a house. The median first-time homebuyer is now over 40 years old. Historically, it was closer to 30. That's not just a housing story. It's becoming a family formation story. Expensive housing is essentially birth control. For every 10 % increase in housing prices, birth rates go down a percent because getting a house is sort of a bridge to, all right, we're going to practice family and we have a spare bedroom. Okay, it's time to fill the spare bedroom. And medium home price is now roughly six to seven times median income nationally.

16:25Historically, it's been between three and four X. First time home buyers are now over 40. 60 % of them are all cash buyers. And I think part of the reason you see people spending five and 10 grand to go to Coachella or to Ibiza and see Black Coffee is I think young people have just given up on saving for a house. They've just given up. They started looking and like, OK, this shitty home is$1.4 million. I've saved$22 ,000. I'm going to need$400 ,000 for fuck it. I'm going to Thailand or I'm going to, you know, I'm going to Mykonos. And that doesn't that's not great for the economy, nor is it great for birth rates in just taking it forward.

17:04If we don't have enough young people supporting an increasingly unproductive and expensive senior population, the economy literally collapses on itself.

17:13George Hahn:How do you build a good life when so many of the traditional milestones feel out of reach? In last week's No Mercy, No Malice, narrated by yours truly, Scott explored a related idea, our growing obsession with optimization. What gets measured gets managed, even when it's pointless to measure and manage it, and even if it harms the purpose of the organization to do so. In other words, our mania for measurement can obscure what matters most. Consider the popularity of health and fitness apps and the personal optimization trend those technologies enable. To a point, the more data we collect on ourselves, the better able we may be to improve our lives.

18:06George Hahn:But metrics aren't the arbiters of living well. Nor is optimization life's end goal My work and life are narrowing, distilling to a few goals One of them is to prepare my son for others Many things I do don't advance that goal And some things undermine it I'm a work in progress, i.e. suboptimal When I'm gone, if I've accomplished this goal My sons will have, among other things receipts in the form of grief, proof that they loved deeply, as Nicole Avant, former U.S. ambassador and film producer, wrote in her memoir, Think You'll Be Happy. The boys won't remember my VO2 max. They won't know my sleep score or my macro splits.

19:01George Hahn:What they'll carry with them is me, the man who showed up imperfectly at the dinner table, at their games, and in countless fleeting moments that didn't register on any dashboard. The metrics were never the point. The sandwiches we shared were. We'll be back next Friday with a fresh edition of The Week from Prof G Media, breaking down what mattered and what it all means. I'm George Hahn. Have a bangin' weekend.

20:08Thank you. Upfront payment of$45 for three-month plan, equivalent to$15 per month required. Intro rate first three months only, then full price plan options available. Taxes and fees extra. See full terms at mintmobile.com.