Top Geopolitical Risks of 2025 — with Ian Bremmer

26:10Do you agree? I do. I do. But also, I would say that the gap is big. It's going to take a long time for them to spend at that level to get close to capabilities to really defend themselves. This is not going to get resolved in four years, even if their level of spending at that point percentage wise is equivalent to the U.S. And some countries are already there, the Baltics, Poland, you know, some of the Nordics, that kind of thing. But also there's a question of the fact that the Americans have the capacity to be a global policeman, even with support. Trump has no interest in doing that. Right.

26:47I mean, Trump was the one that cut the deal with the Taliban that Biden then executed on Syria. You know, you've got a government that's now in place in Syria that's very unlikely going to be able to stabilize that incredibly complex and volatile territory. You've got over 2 ,000 U.S. troops stationed in Syria right now. Trump doesn't want to keep those troops there. If Trump pulls them out, it's not like France is going to send those troops. It's not like the U.K. is. It's much more likely that the Turks are going to be on the ground. They're going to hit the Kurds hard, no longer jailing ISIS on the ground.

27:29And the potential for that to become fertile for a new caliphate is real. So, I mean, the absence of the U.S. as a willing policeman will save American taxpayers. It will put fewer lives at risk, but it will lead to more ungoverned spaces. It will lead to more depredation, more forced migration that will affect other countries to a much greater degree than the U.S. because the U.S. is, you know, geographically very well located and between Canada and Mexico and two big bodies of water. But the world will become more dangerous and more unstable. So, you know, there's that. So and I don't know if this is a function of living abroad now, But when I come back or I don't feel as I'm as in touch with America, which is a good and a bad thing, and I'd like to think it's offered some perspective, but I am mildly horrified minus the mildly.

28:27what I see is this full embrace by not only our leaders, but by acceptance by our media and the general public of what is just an obvious, naked, unafraid, unashamed kleptocracy. That if you look at the inaugural campaigns, I think of all the Big Ten or the Magnuson Ten, there was like a couple$200 ,000 donations to the inaugural campaign or inaugural celebration of Biden. And now every one of them has lined up and put in a million bucks. I mean, this feels like literally an episode of The Sopranos where they walk into the local retailer and say, you know, it'd be a shame if your windows got broken and this place got robbed.

29:09We need protection money. And this has now gone full kleptocracy where Musk increases his wealth by 150 or 200 billion for no other reason, as far as I can tell, that they assume that because he put in a quarter of a billion dollars, that the largest, deepest pocketed customer in the world will throw money at him and anybody else who decides pay for play. Have we gone? Is it unfair to say we have gone full kleptocratic? Well, the trajectory is very strongly in that direction, and it was already bad before Trump. I mean, you know,$3 billion plus spent on our presidential election over two years doesn't need to be that way.

29:52You know, the incredible willingness of special interests in the U.S. to capture the regulatory system to write their own policies, you know, that's not a competitive free market. A competitive free market is one where you've got regulators that represent the public interest and companies have to compete against each other. It's not about who has more access to power and who has the ability to write regulations that support them and get subsidies. It's about who has the best product, who's the most competitive. We're very far from that in the United States right now. Now, we still have, you know, a great environment for small enterprises that start up with plucky entrepreneurs like you and I have experienced and benefited from through our lives.

30:41But and America is still great at that. But in terms of big corporations and billionaires, now we're talking about a country that is open to the highest bidder. And our allies see that and they're worried about it. They don't like it. And it's not the way their systems run, not the advanced industrial economies. Anyway, it's closer to way a lot of emerging markets run. And and we should worry, I think, a lot about that. Absolutely. And that's that's where the Elon thing really bothers me. Less about freedom of speech and more about, you know, what does it mean? what does he get for his quarter of a billion dollars with Trump?

31:30I mean, we see how much access he has. We see that he, I mean, he has a position that's a non-governmental advisory position in Doge. We see his ability to talk directly with competitor CEOs while he's sitting with the president or heads of state while he's sitting with the president to functionally even veto legislation when he speaks out against it, get people aligned. I mean, that's a pretty unique position. We've not seen anyone like that before. He's certainly the most powerful individual in the private sector that the U.S. has experienced since the Gilded Age. What does that mean? What does that mean for the United States domestically, its political system?

32:12What does that mean for the U.S. with its allies in the global order? I don't think it's a good development. it. We'll be right back.

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33:49So you touched on Syria and risk number nine you called ungoverned spaces. Do you think, and you did begin to outline this, do you think what's happened in Syria is a net positive or negative for the West? I think the fact that Assad is gone is a net positive for the West because Assad was an utterly brutal dictator who allowed for more people around the world to believe that they could act with impunity in their own backyards and get away with it, right? He was an ally to not just Russia, but Iran. He facilitated the illegal transfer of weapons from Iran into Lebanon, strengthening Hezbollah, which is seen by the U.S.

34:38as a terrorist organization, as a principal adversary of Israel. He oversaw the principal production of Captagon, an incredibly addictive, enormously debilitating illegal drug that was being exported all over the region and Europe and some to the United States. I am delighted that he's gone and I don't shed any tears about him getting poisoned in Moscow within a couple of weeks of the Russians accepting him in quotes. What has replaced him is at best at best uncertain. I mean, this this new government, came out of ISIS-connected folks, and they are certainly showing that they want to be more inclusive, that they've turned over a new leaf.

35:33But does that really mean that they're going to be either capable or willing to run a more stable, more inclusive government that won't either collapse or won't launch a war against large numbers of its own citizens? We'll have to wait and see. But no, it's clearly a positive, a net positive for the West and for everyone that Assad is gone. So one of the few places I think we have a bit of a differing viewpoint is on Israel and the conflict there. And I'll put forward another thesis that Israel's bold and courageous actions taking out more terrorists in six weeks than we took out in 25 years on our most wanted list, cutting off the hands of the proxies of Iran, incredibly bold, the most precise anti-terrorist action or operation in history with the Pagers and Hezbollah, that Israel has demonstrated not only tremendous power, expertise, and strategy here, but they, in my view, their actions are going to make the Middle East a safer, more stable, more pro-West place because of their actions.

36:46Your thoughts? Well, first of all, the only risk that shows up in our report on the Middle East, one is that oil prices are likely to be low, which means less money for the Gulf states, both for themselves as well as to help countries in the region that need and have benefited from their aid, like Jordan, for example, Egypt, for example, Tunisia, for example. And secondly, Iran, which is a significant risk in part because their regime is on life support, they've lost their empire, and the Americans and the Israelis might well decide this is the opportunity to really hit them hard. Those are the risks.

37:29So, I mean, we didn't have in the report Hezbollah or the West Bank or Gaza because the Israelis have shown that they are militarily dominant. They determine the nature of escalation, and their enemies can't do anything to them. And that includes, frankly, the Iranians. So I certainly accept the fact that the Israelis have defeated their enemies in a pretty spectacular fashion over the last year and a bit, following October 7th. I agree with that. Where you and I probably disagree, and we've had discussions about this in the past, Scott, is that I don't believe that you can resolve the Palestinian problem by blowing them all up.

38:20I just don't. I mean, I think that, you know, if Hamas is an army, they're defeated. If Hamas is an ideology and an idea, you probably made them stronger because you've radicalized people for generations. And what I see in Gaza and the lack of humanitarian support and the comparative breadth of bombing and lack of willingness to be accountable for the risks of the civilian population. And I'm not in any way trying to say that Israel shouldn't want to blow up Hamas. I absolutely accept terrorist organization. They've done horrible things to the Israelis and to their own population. But ultimately, the fact that as a result of this war, the Palestinians are facing far greater depredation than they were on October 6th.

39:20And also the Palestinians in the West Bank have lost a lot more territory. They're living under more of a security state. They are much farther from having a state. I believe that will lead to more radicalism. I believe that will lead to more violence against Israel, against the United States, and more broadly in the region. I believe that. Now, I mean, how do you balance those things? Because again, at the end of the day, Israel is a tiny country. They're very wealthy. They're incredible in terms of surveillance. If they keep their eyes on the ball, as Netanyahu did not before October 7th, they will have great control over their borders.

40:01So, you know, I think in the context of that, you know, maybe they can effectively occupy Palestinian territories and the Palestinians will just live as an imprisoned people. It's possible and that that won't be a threat to Israel. I don't believe that that's humane. That's not a world I want to live in. But I also don't think it's true. So, I mean, even if you don't care about the Palestinians as people, and there are a lot of people that don't, I believe, and I do, but I understand that there are people that just, you know, have decided that's my enemy and I don't care. But I actually believe that, you know, these are people that are industrious, they are capable, and with advanced technologies, they will increasingly find ways to make their voice heard.

40:52And I worry about that. I mean, I worry about that in the same way that I worry about when the CEO of UnitedHealthcare is assassinated by some pretty boy idiot that a whole bunch of people on the internet and, by the way, some establishment Democrats like seem to lionize the guy. Oh, I understand what he did. That's what happens. You radicalize people. Well, they do crazy shit and they have supporters. And I worry that the Palestinians are increasingly going to be prone, larger numbers of them, to do crazy shit with supporters. This idea, and a lot of people hold it, that you, even if you kill, you can kill people, but you can't kill an idea.

41:33I would push back and say, we, for the most part, killed communism. We, for the most part, at least, we thought killed fascism. And at the end of World War II, we were bombing Hamburg. We killed 40 service or military and killed 40 ,000 civilians. And we had already won the war. And when asked the generals and Eisenhower asked why they continued to devastate Hamburg, they said they need to know they lost. And I know that sounds brutal, but I would argue that we would have done worse had we been as viciously attacked. And two, when you actually look at the data, specifically the deaths of combatants relative to civilians that the Israelis are prosecuting this war more humanely than any Western nation has prosecuted another war.

42:18Your thoughts? So I accept the fact that the United States in the war in Iraq and in Afghanistan also saw massive amounts of civilian damage and brutality, except it completely. But let me, I was focused when I said I take exception to the way the Israelis have proselytized this war. I've talked about the utter lack of humanitarian aid getting in to Gaza. And I also talked about taking more land and the greatest security state in the West Bank. And again, I think those things matter. Now, I don't think you need, you can blow up Hamas and still allow food in for the Palestinians. I mean, my view is that if you're a friend of Israel, as I am, you want Israel to do well and sustainably long-term.

43:14And that means criticizing Israel when you think it's fucking up. The United States, which has been the strongest supporter of Israel, bar none, no one else is close over the last year, has been incredibly critical, mostly privately, of the fact that not enough aid has gotten in. So again, my point here is simply that I believe that there's going to be greater radicalization. And we need to move to thinking about how after they've lost. And do they know they've lost? It's not like just the war since October 7th. The Palestinians have known that they've lost for decades now, right? I mean, like they have less and less territory.

43:58They've been moved farther and farther out. Their opportunities, economic opportunities, educational opportunities are more and more constrained. A lot of that is on their own core governance. Don't get me wrong. It's not just all about Israel. A lot of that's because they were forgotten by the Gulf states. A lot of that's because the Americans don't care about them. The Europeans don't care. I mean, no one cares about the Palestinians except the Palestinians. They do. The Palestinians care about the Palestinians. And ultimately, I think that's going to cause a problem. Hasn't Qatar sent over a billion dollars, which they decided to spend on tunnels and rockets?

44:33Haven't they been the beneficiary of a tremendous amount of aid? Qatar has been the single biggest supporter on the ground in Gaza over past years. And of course, that's now been cut off. Absolutely. But if you look at what kind of support the Palestinians have had on the ground to build their economy compared to other countries, actual countries in the region, the answer is very, very little. And look, you know that my mother's side of the family is Armenian. You know, I mean, 125 ,000 Armenians just ethnically cleansed from Nagorno-Kharabakh. And no one's talking about it. You're not going to ask me about it.

45:12It's not in our top risk report. We didn't write about it at all. Even in ungoverned territories, we didn't even bother to mention it because nobody cares. And that's what I'm saying. Law of the jungle. You know, the fact is we could have a very long conversation about why it got to this situation where 125 ,000 civilians got tossed out of their homes, left with nothing, places blown up, occupied all their historic monuments, their churches blown up. Nobody talks about it. It bothers me as a person, you know. But the fact is, I mean, look, we talk about the Palestinians because it gets a lot more attention, but there are so many places where these are the same conversations.

45:52But again, I love this because I want to stop you because I feel like I'm sitting across the table from someone I respect immensely and I can have a civil conversation around things I recognize, I feel strongly about, but I don't know what I don't know. And that is, you talk about we're not having these conversations around the 120 ,000 people who have been disappeared in Syria under Assad or, you know, what's happened in Yemen. Isn't it mostly because when Jews kill people, it's seen as a different crime against humanity than when other people kill people? Isn't there just a tremendous double standard here, Ian?

46:24Look, I think that there are all sorts of double standards, Scott, but they don't just go one way. I mean, the Holocaust has been seared in the imagine the collective historical memory and the imagination of everyone that lived at that time and since um and you know for a long time the jews were seen to be like the principal global victim and we all had to ensure that never happened again today that is not true today israel is the dominant military actor in the entire Middle East, not just vis-a-vis the Palestinians. And they are the ones that get to decide. Now, we in the United States love an underdog.

47:13I think that there has been a shift for a lot of young people in the United States that suddenly don't see support for Israel as support of the underdog. They think that we're somehow the bad guys because like we're in favor of the powerful um and not in favor of the oppressed and but and the ukrainians are you know in the position that the israelis used to be in so i think there's some of that i think there is there's been a massive surge um in anti-semitism around the world very disturbing and that certainly has to do with the fact there are a hell of a lot more Muslims than there are Jews. And a lot of them are on TikTok, for example.

47:56And so you see that performing algorithmically, not because TikTok is nefarious, but just because it performs with those eyeballs. There's some of that. And also the fact that there's just a lot of media occupying that space. You know, I mean, this is this is an area that has a lot of journalists on the ground and covering it. There ain't no journalists in Sudan or Yemen writing about it. This part of the world matters economically, technologically. It doesn't. Sudan, nobody cares, right? It doesn't have a market impact. There's no one that's going to school there that's going to come and talk about it.

48:30There's not as much of a diaspora in the West. There is when you talk about the Israelis and the Palestinians. So I think there are lots of reasons. And to simplify this to just one factor, you and I would not do that about any other discussion we'd have. We certainly wouldn't want to simplify this in that way. Let me first pause again. First comment. I absolutely love these conversations, so thank you. Two, you said that TikTok, not because TikTok is nefarious. Another thesis. TikTok is largely influenced, if not controlled by the CCP, who has a strategic reason to deposition us or make us weaker.

49:08If they can't beat us economically or kinetically, why wouldn't they put their thumb on the scale of content that polarizes us, resulting in 52 pro-Hamas videos for everyone, pro-Israel video, which, according to the research I've seen, is taking place on TikTok. In sum, I would argue TikTok is nefarious and purposely trying to delegitimize or create polarization amongst our public. So I think social media is nefarious. And I agree that TikTok is certainly influenced by the CCP, the Communist Party of China. And we should not trust that. They have said that they are not giving any information to the Chinese Communist Party.

49:52That has been proved in many investigations, Wall Street Journal, other reports to be not true. So I'm not comfortable with the idea that TikTok is just a free market corporation that's only seeking profits and nothing matters. But to the extent that the Chinese have been involved in cyber operations to influence U.S. elections and the Russians have been involved, the Iranians and North Koreans, the Russians are actively promoting information that is trying to increase a sense of racism, rage, violence, hostility, maltreatment. I mean, they're flooding the zone with shit in ways that really is trying to disrupt and undermine U.S.

50:37democracy and stability. China's cyber influence on the U.S. elections was overwhelmingly intelligence seeking. It was get inside the systems to figure out what they're really doing so that we can take advantage from it. It was also get inside critical infrastructure so that just in case things go badly, we might be able to blow these guys up. So I'm someone that believes that I don't know what I don't know. I know what I know. I am not inside. I know the CEO of TikTok. I've met him many times. I'm not inside their decision making process. I don't know what they're saying to the Communist Party.

51:18But I know what I see, the evidence from what the Chinese have done in other areas. there's no reason for me to believe that that would uniquely and somehow be different with TikTok than it is with their entire national strategy, which has been risk averse and influence and information maximizing for them directly. It has not been breaking and blowing up the United States. And I also think that there's a much simpler Occam's razor explanation for why young people would get a lot more pro-Islam and pro-Palestinian content than they would get pro-Israel and pro-Jewish. And it's because TikTok is a global platform with enormous numbers of people from Pakistan and Indonesia on it and also oriented towards younger people that are already, even in the West, much more pro-Palestinian than they are pro-Israel all over the world.

52:16And that's just being driven algorithmically. I think that's the simplest argument. So that's how I feel about that. Let's talk about Ukraine. Give us your state of play in Ukraine. So you'll remember back at the beginning of 2024, you and I talked about this and I said, and I wasn't happy about it at all. I said, I think Ukraine is going to get partitioned. You were one of the first people that ever said that out loud. I want to point that out. You said, this land, they're never getting it back. It's essentially what you said. Yeah. And I mean, I want to be very clear. I really don't want that outcome.

52:52But it's not for me to be telling everybody what I want. It's much more about sort of where you think things are going. And the Ukrainians, I think, increasingly understand that they're now trying to position themselves for the best possible negotiation where they are going to have to lose most, if not all, of the territory that the Russians presently occupy. They'd like a little leverage, which is why they're continuing the offensive in Kursk, which is inside Russia, so that they have something to trade. That's going to make the negotiations more fraught, but does give them leverage. The Russians also are, they'd benefit from a breather.

53:37I mean, yeah, they've got 15 ,000 North Korean troops that, you know, are not fighting well and are dying in large numbers, but they're having a harder time raising significant numbers of troops for the war effort. and their economy is increasingly performing badly under strain of sanction and lack of human capital. So I think that Trump is going to succeed in getting a ceasefire. I don't think it's going to take a day. It's going to be hard of any thought. But but when he tells the Ukrainians, you need to accept what I'm telling you or else, first of all, he's creating some cover for Zelensky to say, look, I've got no choice now because of the Americans, which is helpful to Zelensky, frankly.

54:20But also he does know that the Americans will cut off aid if he doesn't. So that will move. And the French, Macron, has also delivered that message just yesterday to Zelensky. He's heard it from the Germans and others. So he's getting that pressure. And the Russians also know, though it's harder to pressure them in this environment, the U.S. has less leverage, they know that if they don't accept negotiations and a ceasefire, that they're going to get tougher sanctions from Trump. I do believe that. And Trump has delivered that message. I also thought it was very interesting. I mean, Trump's tweets aren't always interesting, but sometimes they are.

54:55And there was one he put out a couple weeks ago that said about Russia, Ukraine, that also China can help. and it was very interesting that trump would say that i i fully agree with it china does not benefit from this war continuing they would like the uh russians to have a ceasefire it is undermining china's relationship with europe which especially the frontline states which they would like to be more stable it is making it harder for the chinese to have flexibility globally they They really don't like the Russia-North Korea relationship. They want this war over. As you said before, the Chinese need stability.

55:36The Russians are chaos actors. So they're not fully aligned in this. If I were Trump, I would absolutely reach out to the Chinese to be a part of this solution. And the first Trump-Xi Jinping call is going to be utterly fascinating for so many reasons, but this is one of them. So just as we wrap up here, Ian, we have a lot of young people who listen to this podcast and are very focused on trying to develop their own careers. And I think a lot of people listen to this and hear about your background in GZero Media and think, God, that is just such a cool job and business. Just give us just a cliff notes.

56:13I would imagine your business is booming. And what is the friction right now in your business? When you look at 2025 as the founder of this consulting firm or media company, what are you most excited about and most worried about as it relates to being an entrepreneur and building your business? Well, I mean, it's kind of funny because, of course, given that we try to help people understand the world when there's more uncertainty, more people need us. And that's true both in terms of the companies that pay us to do consulting and advisory work and also in terms of just the members of the public that engage with our media channels and the rest.

56:51I mean, we did a lot better growth-wise in the Trump administration than we did in Biden. I mean, you know, leaving aside the fact that tax rates went down, so all the corporates did well under that, but, you know, just generally speaking, much more uncertainty driven by the Trump administration. And we already see that starting now. He's certainly acting as president with Biden, you know, doing much less. I expect that'll be true again. So that's not a point of friction. The point of friction, and I think you'll appreciate this. So we've got, you know, like almost 250 employees, right? For me, that sounds amazing because I started as a kid from the projects and it was just - Sounds like a headache.

57:33But well, I've got a CEO. It's not like I'm running it. But I mean, 250 people is a small company. In the grand scheme of things, it's a small company. And the biggest point of friction is that we need to ensure that the bets that we make in a given year, there are so many places that we could go and engage and build the firm. Different types of businesses, different geographies, different sectors we can invest in, different kinds of staff, all sorts of things we can do. And yet as a firm with 250 people, you can only make four or five of those bets in a serious way in any given year. So it's not about who your competitors are globally.

58:18It's much more about, you know, marshalling your resources intelligently yourself and making those bets. So they're not singles, but they're a couple of them are actually home runs that they really they really do. you know, you're so, you're constrained. I mean, it's kind of like you and I have so many hours in the day. You've got so many hours with the kids before they don't want to talk to you anymore. How are you going to spend that time with them that maximizes it? We've got, you know, only so many people and so much money we can deploy. How do we do that in a big world that's rife with opportunity?

58:53There's too much opportunity in the world. And there's only one of me and there's only one Eurasia group, only one GZERO Media, You know, how do you do that? And I'm an optimist. My eyes are always bigger than my stomach. Everything can work out. The people around me are meant to sort of, you know, ensure that there is structure and reality around all of that. And I think they do a real good job. Yeah, it's the charge of any leader is not what to do, but what not to do, how you allocate capital to its greatest return. Ian Bremmer is the president and founder of Eurasia Group, the world's leading political risk research and consulting firm and GZero Media, a company dedicated to providing intelligent and engaging coverage of international affairs.

59:39He's also the author of 11 books, including the New York Times bestsellers, Us vs. Them, The Failure of Globalism, and his latest book, The Power of Crisis, How Three Threats and Our Response Will Change the World. Ian, Alec Baldwin has hosted SNL 17 times. You have now been on Prop G seven times. We are catching up fast. You are hands down our favorite guest. You're thoughtful. You're civil. You're creative. I just love these conversations. Really appreciate your partnership and friendship. All right, brother. Take care. Happy New Year.

1:00:21Algebra of happiness. This guy, I think his name is Tyler. I found him on TikTok or Instagram. Kind of obsessed with him. He's this former financial advisor that takes these long walks in the woods. It looks like he's in a work camp in Vladivostok and gives financial advice. And I just think he's fantastic what he does. And he said something that impacted me. He said that here is the definition of success, a series of small actions every day. And it just, it struck me as so simple, but this is what I hope we're all going to do, or I'm going to suggest you do, and I'm going to try and do the same thing.

1:00:53And that is every day this year, do one small thing, one small thing that's going to add up to something great at the end of the year, 15, 20, 30 minutes of exercise. It might be a long walk, a text message every day to someone you care about, telling them that you care about them. And it might not be, I care about you, but just checking in, hi, how are you? You're gonna aggregate those text messages are gonna compound. Something for yourself. Create one or two minutes of content every day. I'm gonna write a blog post or 100 words of a blog post every day. I'm gonna put out a minute or every three days, I'm gonna put out a video.

1:01:29I'm gonna put out interesting content on a social media platform to try and garner my following. I'm gonna save 10 bucks a day. I'm gonna not take an Uber. I'm going to take the subway, and I am not going to buy that latte from Starbucks, and I'm going to invest$10 every day in Vanguard and ETF or on the Acorns app, whatever it might be, right? A series of small actions every day that add up to something great, especially around relationships. This is our year. It's 2025. Everything behind you is gone. It's done. It's immutable. But 2025 is mutable. Let's start now. This episode was produced by Jennifer Sanchez.

1:02:09Our intern is Dan Shalong. Drew Burrows is our technical director. It's so nice to see Drew again. So nice to see Drew. He comes over to my house. He sets everything up. He's this nice presence. Thank you for listening to the Prof G Pod from the Vox Media Podcast Network. We will catch you on Saturday for No Mercy, No Malice, as read by George Hahn. And please follow our Prof G Markets Pod wherever you get your pods for new episodes every Monday and Thursday.

1:02:38Woohoo!