What Happens Next With TikTok? Should I Quit My Investment Banking Job? and Scott’s Advice on Being an Older Dad

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1:21Welcome back to the Prop G Pod's Office Hours. This is the part of the show where we answer questions about business, big tech, entrepreneurship, and whatever else is on your mind. If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehours at propgmedia.com. Again, that's officehours at propgmedia.com. First question. Hi, Scott. Love the podcast. I found you on TikTok. And as a fellow TikToker with a healthy following of 1.9 million, I wanted to ask you your thoughts on TikTok. I used to have a lot invested in my TikTok. It was one of my main sources of income. But a few years ago, I could see the writing on the wall and wasn't sure if either the U.S.

2:00government would get rid of TikTok or if TikTok itself would one day just decide to kick me off the platform for possibly no reason. as I seem to have done that to many creators. I put a lot more time and focus into YouTube and in the last two years have grown my YouTube from zero followers to 1.4 million. I found I'm making more money over there. It seems a lot more stable. And overall, it's a really great audience that seems to have a lot of fun. I'd really like you to talk about your views on TikTok and what you think is going on, especially because that's how I found you and absolutely love your podcast and think it is a super, super valuable resource.

2:40Thanks, Scott. Keep up the great work. So Anonymous, you should have told us who you were so we could get you to 2 million on TikTok and 1.5 million on YouTube. First off, you must be very talented. I mean, I think of myself as a decent creator here. I haven't got, you know, jock shit on these platforms compared to you. You must be very talented. So well done. So first up, just on TikTok, it's been in the news a lot recently. A brief recap, in April, President Biden signed a law mandating that ByteDance sell TikTok or divest it, or else the app will be subject to a nationwide ban. TikTok responded by suing the U.S.

3:17government, saying it violates users' First Amendment rights. Additionally, TikTok and ByteDance argued that divesting within the last 270-day timeframe was simply not possible. The latest news as of today, the DOJ and TikTok have urged a U.S. appeals court to speed up its review of the legal disputes concerning the potential ban. The DOJ, along with TikTok, ByteDance, and a group of content creators, asked the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia to decide by December 6th, allowing enough time for a possible Supreme Court review before the January 19th deadline to sell. Okay, so a few things here.

3:52The court case will come down to the arguments of First Amendment, which is very powerful, free speech. You're not supposed to get in the way of people like yourself, creators, expressing their views. There isn't, in my view, or at least there hasn't been peer-reviewed research showing, is this true? I don't even believe this. I think there's a ton of research showing that TikTok is influenced by the CCP. But opponents of the ban will claim that they're still, you're trying to prove a false negative, that there hasn't been any definitive proof here. So let's give them the benefit of the doubt.

4:25So the two legal arguments will be, you can't get away in the First Amendment. And before you inhibit someone's free speech, you have to try and find other remedies. The counter will be simple. It'll be a question of national security. And we limit free speech all the time for national security. We even have laws that you can't own more than 25 percent of a broadcast station because we don't even want concentration of speech. And Rupert Murdoch had to become a citizen. This is equivalent, in my view, in terms of the risks of letting the Kremlin own CBS, NBC, and ABC in the 60s when we were in a Cold War.

5:01We're not in a Cold War with China. We're in what I would call a cold peace. We weren't the second largest trading. Russia was not our second largest trading partner in the 60s, as China is now just behind Mexico. We have economic interdependences there, but it's sort of a cold peace, if you will. And that is, we do seem to be directly undermining each other in economic ways. It's not like the Cold War where we were shuttling arms to anyone who was killing people on the other side, but it's sort of a cold peace. But imagine if we had decided to let the Kremlin own NBC, ABC and CBS. We just wouldn't have.

5:34And I think it's the same here. Why? Because young people see the world through the frame that is TikTok and a little bit YouTube. I think there is evidence that someone has their thumb on the scale of the TikTok algorithm. them. There are 52 pro-Hamas videos serve for every one pro-Israel video. And you think, well, Scott, that's because young people have sought out their own media sources and are trying to bring visibility to something they feel passionate about. Okay, fair enough. Let's go to the control group as we do in any decent research. Let's go to reels around other topics. When you go to reels, Instagram's reels, and you say, okay, Uyghur genocide, there are 600 times as many videos on Instagram reels talking about the Uyghur genocide or around free Tibet than there are on TikTok.

6:21It's very simple. Just ask yourself, what would the CCP want? If China can't beat us militarily, which they can't, they can't beat us economically, which they aren't, then why on earth wouldn't they go after this amazing Trojan horse called U.S. propaganda vis-a-vis the ultimate tool where they've implanted our neural jack into the wet matter of all of our youth and are dialing up content that divides us internally. This is exactly the right strategy and what our PSYOPs division of the army does in other nations with Radio Free America, Good Morning Vietnam, Radio Free Europe. This is what we do.

6:56These wars are fought over public opinion. Now, here's what I think is going to happen. I think this was absolutely the right move. I think that the court will find in favor of the White House or specifically the U.S. claiming that, OK, the national defense threat here is real. The national security threat is real. And they will uphold the president's order and give him the right to ban TikTok if it is not divested. And then as we get closer right now, you can bet on anything and you can bet on this right now. The line is 70-30 government to bite dance, meaning they think there's a 70 percent likelihood the government is going to win this case.

7:36I think as we get closer to the case, it's going to become 80-20, 90-10. And then on the eve of the case, I think they will come to some sort of agreement. For all the posturing, I don't think that the CCP wants to lose a quarter of a trillion dollars and their propaganda tool. The propaganda tool is off the table. I think it's going away, but they'll say, well, if we're definitely going to lose the propaganda tool, we don't want to lose a quarter of a trillion dollars. And I believe they will come to some sort of accommodation that makes the White House comfortable and where ByteDance gets to keep that quarter of a trillion dollars.

8:09I don't think your TikTok is going to go away. I think this will end up in an agreement. The agreement logically could be reached much more easily because it's the White House dealing directly with Beijing. I think that is going to happen. Now, as it relates to your situation, my brother, you're not only talented, you're smart. You're diversifying away from one revenue source because there's geopolitical risk there to another and you are growing. You're diversifying your revenue stream. I think it's fantastic what you've done. You're obviously a very talented person. You're diversifying. You're smart and you're exceptionally talented.

8:43Congratulations. It is good to be you. Question number two. Hey, Prof G. It's almost 3 a.m. and I'm still working. I'm a first year IB associate at a bulge bracket bank and I've worked 17 hour days for 12 days Street, which is the same number of hours that a B of A associate consistently worked before tragically passing away last week, despite being only 35. I've heard rumors that some banks are taking small actions such as 2 a.m. caps or protected weekends, but I haven't personally heard any senior bankers address this issue, and I don't feel optimistic that we'll see any meaningful change in the current investment banking culture.

9:21I'm curious if you have any thoughts on what it would take for the industry to change and what junior bankers can do to advocate for positive change? Thanks for taking my question. I'm a huge fan. Wow, that sort of rattled me hearing that. Okay, so some context. On the Bank of America associate you referred to earlier this month, a 35-year-old banker who was reportedly working more than 100 hours a week died suddenly. According to the New York office of the chief medical examiner, the junior banker died from a blood clot. Since an executive recruiter who spoke with him about seeking a new job has come out and shared that the banker had wanted to leave Bank of America because of the grueling hours.

10:00Two weeks after the death of the 35-year-old banker, a 25-year-old Bank of America trader died suddenly of cardiac arrest while playing soccer at a company event. However, it's not clear whether work contributed to his death. Okay, so a couple of things. One, by virtue of this podcast and by virtue of plaintiffs' attorneys, and by virtue of the fact that Bank of America seems to be a common phrase in these stories, you can bet that B of A, if not already, is going to freak the fuck out justifiably about being subject to pretty serious lawsuits and to a reputation for being just a shitty place to work.

10:40I have mixed views on this. I think that an organization, not an organization, an organization isn't sentient. An organization doesn't care about you. People should care about you. And whoever your bosses are that are letting you work to the point of exhaustion, to where it's really impacting your mental and your physical health, then quite frankly, that's not B of A. It's those people's fault. Whoever is the VP that you're, or the VPs that you're reporting into, whoever runs your group are not decent people. And for them not to notice the type of hours you're working, assuming what you're saying is accurate, and I have no reason to believe it isn't, then it's not a bad organization.

11:25These are bad people, and it's a bad culture attracting bad people. So what I would suggest is you go to your boss or you go to HR and say, this is just not sustainable for me, and it's having a real impact on my outlook and my health. And they will freak out, as they rightfully should, because if someone else drops dead at your organization or is hospitalized, they will have to disclose that people were notifying and complaining about it. Having said that, what can you do? What should you do? Find another job. You're privileged. If you got a job at an investment bank, it means a couple of things.

12:08It means you're talented and it means you're overeducated and it means that most likely, and I don't know this, you had a decent amount of privilege growing up. Maybe you didn't, maybe you overcame all those obstacles. I was an investment banking analyst at Morgan Stanley and I worked a lot. And I leaned into that because I wasn't as good as my peers. It's not a humble brag. I just wasn't that educated or well-educated, not because UCLA wasn't a great school, but I didn't work as hard while I was in school. So every Tuesday morning, I used to go in at 9 a.m. and I would stay till 5 p.m. on Wednesday because I was physically fit.

12:43I didn't mind it. I could do it. And it sort of was my way of kind of establishing my commitment at the workplace. I didn't I was living at home with my mother. I didn't have a girlfriend. I didn't have dogs. And I was actually physically quite capable of it. I'm not suggesting that's the right way. I'm just saying for a brief time, that was my way. If you have the kind of options you likely have, and this is really taking a toll on your mental or physical health, then you need to find another job. because waiting around for the culture to change your investment bank is gonna, you know, it's gonna take a while.

13:15So that's the bad news. I don't know your personal situation. I don't know your financial situation. But if it's really taking a toll on your emotional and physical health, then start interviewing. One, tell them, do you have a mentor there? Go in and say, this is just too much for me. And they'll either make accommodations because they don't wanna lose you or they'll give you a bunch of jazz hands, at which point, and I would even think right now you should start thinking about another job. Most jobs, they want you to work hard in the financial services industry. The markets are strong. The employment market is strong.

13:45Also, and I don't know if this is still the same, but it was an abusive culture when I was there. You had to be there before. Anyone senior you showed up, you couldn't leave until after everyone else was gone. They took pride in assigning you a bunch of work on Friday, so you'd have to work all weekend. It was definitely kind of an abused children's syndrome. I was under the impression had gotten a lot better, but I'm not there. I don't know. And then I would also just talk to some people close to you before you make any kind of rash decisions and walk out the door, because you might be able to scale it back.

14:16This might be a temporary thing. And also, this is a free market. The reason why a ton of young people are killing for jobs at these investment banks to work their asses off is because it comes with certain benefits. Specifically, they're very high paying. It's a great brand on your resume, and it opens up a lot of opportunities such that you can make money and maybe work less hard when you're older. So I'm of two minds here. Appreciate the question. We have one quick break before our final question. Stay with us.

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16:19Welcome back. Question number three. Dear Scott, in four days, I will be 37 years old. I'm seeing someone who I hope won't be married to in a couple of years with a couple of kids a few years after. When I was 30, my mom said, when your father was your age, he already had two daughters. It's been ringing my head for seven years. I was born later when my dad was 40, and that meant I grew up with a little more economic security, but it also meant I got less of his time. I've got economic security, but I'm afraid for how much time in my own life has passed. What has your experiences as an older dad taught you about being a good father?

16:53Do you ever think about how old you'll be when your kids get married? Have their own kids? What advice would you give the version of you that existed five years before your kids were born? Shaquille, P.S. I'm trying to fix the housing shortage in my own community, and I found your TED Talk inspiring. I've watched it once a day for the past five days. This question is inspired by watching you barely hold back tears while talking about your kids. Shaquille, first off, thanks for the kind words. It sounds like you're in a great spot. Let me get this. You're 37. You're in what sounds like a great relationship.

17:28You're thinking about getting married. You're thinking about kids. You have some economic security. This is the mother of all good problems. And I had my first kid when I was 42. And everything's a trade-off. I would like to be a great-grandfather. I just get the sense I hope and trust and the reason why I work out and take supplements and do all this shit as I would, and I don't smoke and I'm trying to train classes, I would like to be around to see grandkids. I'm not going to be around to see great grandkids. I would like to be able to play soccer with my 12-year-old grandson. That's unlikely.

18:02So if I'd had kids much younger, I would probably have been able to do that. The trade-off would have been, I was so immature, so economically insecure. I don't think I would have been a great dad. So it's a trade-off. But For God's sake, say you have kids at your 37, say you have kids at 40. People are living to 100. So your kids are going to be 60 before you check out. I mean, I just think this is a great problem. And I don't, you know, I think you should focus on your relationship. You should look forward to having kids. It's never the right time. I find it's kind of never the right time to have kids.

18:40You just kind of kind of, I don't know, pull the goalie and see what happens. You don't need to anguish over this. you're going to have to be in a relationship, to have kids with someone you like, to have a good job, 40 years old and having a kid. That is the sweet spot. I mean, sure, it would be great to do it at 32 or 34. Yeah. You know, my partner was 28 when she had her first kid. I was 42. She was 28. It's wonderful for her now that the kids are older, that she, you know, she's a young mom and will probably be around, you know, she probably will have great grandkids. Yeah, it's fantastic.

19:18But in my case, it just wouldn't have been a good idea. So you really, I was reading our Bill Maher, they did a write-up on Bill Maher in the New York Times this weekend, and he had this great quote. It's, and it went something along the lines of, I can't think of anything more stupid than people focusing on what's wrong with their life instead of what's right. You're running at about, on a scale of zero to 100, you're running at about 95. And to be worried, it's okay to be worried, but don't be anxious or upset that you didn't have kids earlier. You are in the sweet spot, my brother. Your best days are ahead of you.

19:54Thanks for the question. That's all for this episode. If you'd like to submit a question, please email a voice recording to officehours at profgmedia.com. Again, that's officehours at profgmedia.com.

20:13This episode was produced by Caroline Chagrin. Jennifer Sanchez is our associate producer. And Jude Burroughs is our technical director. Thank you for listening to the Prop G Pod from the Vox Media Podcast Network. We will catch you on Saturday for No Mercy, No Malice, as read by George Hahn, and on Monday with our weekly market show.