Why Are More Men Dying From Unnatural Causes? — with Richard Reeves

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1:32Episode 318. 218 is the area code covering cities in northern and central Louisiana. In 1918, World War I ended. So a little bone to pick. I saved 100 orphans from a burning building. Do they call me orphan saver? No. I butchered 20 men with my bare hands in World War I. Do they call me the butcher? No. But you fuck one goat. Just one goat. Go! Go! Go!

2:07Welcome to the 318th episode. Jesus Christ, 318th? What am I, like 800 years old? I mean, when does it end? When does it end? Anyways, the 318th episode of the Prop G-Pod. In today's episode, we speak with someone I refer to as my Yoda on the topic of young men, specifically struggling young men, and that is Richard Reeves, who is the president of the American Institute for Boys and Men and a non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. We discussed with Richard his new research on unnatural male deaths, including injury, suicide, and drug overdose, along with solutions and his take on what the script for masculinity should look like.

2:45Okay, what's happening? That's right. I'm back in London. I'm back in the UK, but I was in Madrid. By the way, Madrid. Let's talk a little bit about Madrid. Hola, Senor Galloway. Who's the old dude living upstairs? Who is that guy? He's funny. That's right. Who's the guy with the big dog and the little dog? Oh, that's the dog. Anyway, absolutely love Madrid. I'm into this idea. Richard Florida, I couldn't remember his name the other day. He's like this. He is not like he's the city guy. By the way, lives in Toronto and Miami. What does it say when the city guy lives in Toronto and Miami? That means those two cities have it kind of going on for different reasons.

3:22But Richard looks at the future of cities, and I'm fascinated by looking at cities in a similar way. You look at stocks. What is an undervalued city? Where would you want to move if you're on? Because a young person, I would argue, needs to be constantly thinking about what I would refer to as a lifestyle arbitrage. Now, unfortunately, the arbitrage gets harder as you put down roots, dogs, kids, shit like that. But you always want to be thinking about a lifestyle arbitrage when you're kind of very young or very old, for example. and my one of the best things or most secretive things I did in my life.

3:52I did a lifestyle arbitrage moving from San Francisco to New York, but it wasn't a lifestyle arbitrage. It was more a philosophical arbitrage. I wanted to get away from the tech community. I didn't like San Francisco. Most beautiful city in the union. I get it. Great, great professional environment. I can't stand the fog. I can't stand political extremism on either side. And I found it politically extreme. But Anyways, love New York. But then the lifestyle arbitrage was I moved to Florida in 2010. And basically, not 80 % of New York because it's so different, but water, beaches, Miami, hello, Latina, sexy vibe.

4:28And I could do it on 40 % of the price. And I got to start saving money, invested a bunch of money, and the markets took off and champagne and cocaine, or as I call it, I moved to London. So that was the kind of ultimate lifestyle arbitrage. And I think a lot of people recognize that arbitrage at the same period moving from California to Texas or to other places. Ultimately, the term arbitrage is the correct one because people figure it out and more and more human and financial capital moves into these underpriced lifestyle areas and things go up in price and the arbitrage gets starched out. By the time I moved away from Florida two years ago, our house had tripled in value.

5:02The school we sent our kids to had gone from, I think,$12 ,000 in tuition to$22 ,000. So it almost doubled and they're out of seats. They that arb is gone, if you will. But anyways, I'm back from Madrid. Oh, and I'm heading to Munich tomorrow. I love Munich. It's a beautiful city. If I spoke German, I would probably move to Munich, but I don't. So I won't. I actually prefer Munich over Berlin. I love Berlin for the history, but Munich, whew, that's a nice wealthy city. Anyways, what else is going on? Nike CEO John Donahoe is stepping down next month, a move welcomed by pretty much everyone involved with the firm.

5:34Critics, investors, and employees alike say that Donahoe, who took over as CEO in 2020, essentially oversaw Nike's fall, becoming a loser, ruining retail partnerships and diminishing the brand. As the former CEO of eBay and bank company, he was hired to upgrade Nike's digital sales. Don Ho focused on direct-to-consumer sales and cut ties with longtime retail partners, including Foot Locker, DSW, and Macy's. We actually talked about this in our most recent episode of Office Hours. Don Ho's demise really started to come into full view when Nike's stock fell 20 % in June following disappointing sales growth and a bleak forecast.

6:09So essentially, sales have really had a tough time. As a matter of fact, Nike's in a sales recession for the first time in a while, meaning their year-on-year sales have gone down. I think it's really easy to play Monday morning quarterback. I ran a firm called L2 that was a business intelligence firm, and Nike was one of our biggest clients. And I want to be clear, my advice was to double down on direct-to-consumer, that they needed to develop more, have more control over their channels, either through the web or their own stores. And it ends up that retail sales, in-store retail sales, came back much stronger than anyone had anticipated post-COVID, and they were caught flat-footed.

6:49I would argue the decision they made at that time was the right decision. By the way, very interesting. I think it's very interesting. When the military reviews an operation, sure, they look at the outcome, but more than that, when they try to evaluate the officer's decisions, they look at, given the information that person had at that time, was that the right decision? Okay, maybe it worked, maybe it didn't work, but given what he or she knew at that moment, was it the right decision? And I would argue doubling down on direct-to-consumer, given what they knew, was the right idea. Where they have fucked up or fallen short, they have not been nearly as innovative around product and merchandising as Adidas, and they've lost a ton of share to some long-tail brands, Hoka, and On Running, which are the shoes I wear.

7:32Hello, douchebag venture capitalist. Anyways, I would also say there's some bigger macro factors that are outside of their control, specifically China sneezes and a bunch of these companies get a cold, whether it's Starbucks, whether it's Estee Lauder. These companies have become so over-invested in China. China was a gift that kept on giving. And when China and domestic demand fell, these companies really got whacked hard. In addition, on a more meta level, TikTok. And that is the sword that has been the weapon of choice for Nike has been building an okay shoe that they infuse with unbelievable brand codes.

8:09And the primary weapon for building those brand codes has been broadcast television. Nike is the best broadcast advertiser in history, but that sword, that weapon of war, if you will, has been getting duller and duller for the last 20 years. And so it is harder for them to reach their core customer with their core confidence, and that is advertising. They're fantastic with endorsement. They're pretty good at direct-to-consumer. I would argue the stores have gotten a little bit stale. I remember everyone wanted to go to Nike Town in 2000. I'm not sure. They've been closing some of their stores.

8:38It feels like they need a freshen up, a refresh, something that makes them a little bit stand out a little bit more. Anyways, do not count these guys out. The new CEO, the new CEO is, oh shit, who is he? Oh, Elliot Hill. I know Elliot. I don't know him well, but I did work with him a little bit at L2. I think this is a great hire. I think the board did a really good job here. And that is they brought in someone that would provide some stability, some credibility. And this guy is kind of, you know, if you were to stab him with a fork, he kind of bleeds the swoosh. He's very much Nike. And I think it was a great hire for them.

9:15So well done. Look for Nike. Nike had its best trading day, I think, of 2024, the day they announced Donald was stepping down and they brought in Elliot. But look for Nike. I think Nike's absolutely, you do not want to bet against Nike. Moving on, the Biden administration plans to ban Chinese-developed software and internet-connected vehicles in the U.S. Huh. You don't say. Why? National security concerns. Wow. Huh. Why national security concerns? The ban aims to prevent Chinese intelligence from tracking Americans and using car electronics to get into important systems, including the electric grid.

9:49Jesus Christ. That sounds very much spy versus spy. National Security Advisor Nate Silver said on a call with reporters, with potentially millions of vehicles on the road, each with 10 to 15 year lifespans, the risk of disruption and sabotage increases dramatically. Wow. I don't know how much of that is true. Is the real national security concern? Or it's Mary Barra from General Motors saying, we need more jobs. Detroit needs your help, Joe. I would argue we tend to err on the side of being too permissive, too promiscuous with our data and our infrastructure. and there's no fucking way they would let us into their country or have they with Tesla and AutoDrive?

10:27I don't know. That's an interesting question. It's an interesting question. But typically what I see playing out in China, and I'm paranoid, but it doesn't mean I'm wrong, is that China will let companies in just long enough to figure out what they're doing to establish a market in that sector, create some demand, create some economic liquidity, and then they boot out that company or make it hard for them, prop up a local Chinese entrepreneur and capture the value internally, as they did with Facebook and Google. Ever heard of Baidu? And it looks a lot like Google. And my guess is the majority of the IP was stolen.

10:55By the way, the greatest economic boom in the history of China is probably the migration from rural areas into city areas and some of their central planning, which has actually worked in autocracy. The second biggest has been just out of fucking control IP theft from Europe and the U.S. Anyways, I think that this follows or this initiative follows previous actions against Chinese technology, including bans on Huawei products and investigations into Chinese cranes at U.S. ports. Officials have emphasized the ban is driven by security, not political models. Okay, that makes sense. The ban will also target Russian software and hardware.

11:29Is there a lot of Russian hardware and software in the U.S.? What is it? Vodka? That's my software. That's my Russian software. By the way, Stolich and I is brewed in like Denmark or something or still in Denmark. It's a mean vodka, though. True story. I used to just drink beer in college with a little bit of marijuana. And then I started drinking vodka because I thought it was more elegant. It's kind of the alcoholics alcohol. I didn't think the hangover was so bad. And I literally became immune to vodka. Like I literally became immune. I could drink eight vodka drinks and I'd be like, oh, I don't like me, which means this isn't working.

12:01And just a reminder, just a reminder. I don't know how I got there with Russia. Oh, yeah. There's not a lot of Russian software, I think, in the U.S. And just a reminder, in May, the Biden administration increased tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to 100 % and limited tax credits for Chinese-made EVs. We also covered this issue in an Office Hours episode back in July. This ban would hinder the entry of Chinese car manufacturers, including BYD, into the U.S. market, which poses a potential risk to U.S. automakers if they lack access to advanced technologies. I'm not sure that's accurate. I think it's probably a boon for U.S.

12:32car manufacturers, specifically Tesla, if they don't allow BYD. And I fucking hate tariffs. I hate them. The second biggest tax cut in the world would be if we broke up big tech. It would oxygenate the economy. Companies wouldn't. Companies, parents, consumers wouldn't have this extraordinary tax placed on them called the monopolization of social search and our kids' well-being by a small number, a handful of small companies. So breaking these companies up would require them to compete and lower the rents on suppliers, retailers, third-party marketers, digital firms, companies trying to acquire people online, retailers, little brands trying to sell their shit online when they have to pay these onerous, usurious prices in terms to Amazon.

13:13So you want to oxygenate the economy, break up big tech. But the biggest tax cut in the history of mankind would be if China and the U.S. kissed and made up. We have money, consumer demand, incredible intellectual property. they have a supply chain like no other and also a decent consumer demand, although it's fallen off a little bit. It seems like we should kiss and make up and make cheap shit for everyone around the world. More for less is the ultimate gangster business strategy. And we kind of got the more part in the U.S. and they got it for less, if you will. Anyways, let's hope we can all get along.

13:48We'll be right back for our conversation with Richard Reeves.

13:56There is a lot to talk about when we talk about Donald Trump and Jimmy Kimmel. One big question I've got is why, in 2025, are late-night TV shows, like Jimmy Kimmel's show, still on TV? Even in our diminished times, Jimmy Kimmel, Stephen Colbert, they're just some of the biggest faces of their networks. If you start taking the biggest faces off your networks, You might save some nickels and dimes, but what are you even anymore? What even is your brand anymore? I'm Peter Kafka, the host of Channels. And that was James Ponowozik, the TV critic for The New York Times. This week, we're talking about Trump and Kimmel, free speech, and a TV format that's remained surprisingly durable for now.

14:45That's This Week on Channels, wherever you get your favorite podcasts.

15:04Welcome back. Here's our conversation with Richard Reeves, the president of the American Institute for Boys and Men and non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. Richard, where does this podcast find you? I'm home in East Tennessee, Southern Appalachia, but I've been on the road. I've been in Hong kong and then been in oregon i had this amazing trip out to this community college in oregon where they're just cratering male share of employment they're dealing with it they're acting on it and this guy told me he's been visiting all these rural high schools in oregon to find out why the boys are not applying to college anymore and there's a bunch of reasons he said the most common thing he heard was i'm afraid that i'll be lonely that i kind of won't belong.

15:49I won't have friends. Really? It really struck me. Yeah. That's wild. I mean, I know that generally speaking, young men have a tendency to stay on the farm and women have a tendency to take off for the city. But that's, I had never heard that about that being a reason for why young men weren't applying to college. Same. I mean, we know they are more lonely. Like we've talked about this before, like the loneliness epidemic has hit young men a bit more. And I have a number of college campuses have told me that when they do their kind of belonging surveys, they very often find it is men, especially those from kind of more rural areas, who will say that they just don't really feel like they belong on the campus, right?

16:26They don't have the right habits, the right language, the right sensibilities or whatever. And I really worry about that because you start to feel like college is not for, you know, working class guys, especially from rural areas, then you're losing a heck of a lot of potential talent. Yeah, I've always been a big advocate. and it's not as toxic to people now as it was, but I've always been a huge advocate for joining a fraternity or a sorority when you get to school. And there's some credible stats. You become twice as likely to complete your four-year education when you join a fraternity or a similar organization that kind of distills it down to a smaller, I know, a smaller community, if you will.

17:07But anyways, the reason we wanted to bring you on is you just put out a paper on unnatural male deaths, including injuries, suicide, and drug overdose. Why is this happening? Yeah, so we're really motivated by our previous work on suicide, where there's a well-known big gap, especially now among young men who like to take their lives from suicide. But CDC actually captures this really good data on unnatural deaths, so kind of injuries is the language they sometimes use. And we really hadn't seen anyone break that down by gender. And so we did break it down by gender. And a number of things jumped out to me.

17:43The thing I wasn't prepared for was just the scale of the increase in injury death. So it's up by 57 % since 2001. It's 200 ,000 men a year who are dying from one of these, quote, non-natural causes. The biggest one is drug poisonings, followed by suicide, followed by motor vehicle crashes, followed by homicide and then the other ones. And it's just, it's two and a half times higher among men than among women. And that increase is so big and largely driven by this drug epidemic that we're seeing. The thing that really blew me away is like, if you look at the deaths, you're always gonna see deaths from non-natural causes, the ones we've seen above, right?

18:26The question is, are they going down or up? And they're going up in a way that's extraordinary. So just to kind of put a sharp data point on this, if the death rate from these unnatural causes had remained the same since 2001, right, so it'd been a flat line since then, then we would have lost 400 ,000 fewer men in those couple of decades. And that's about the number of men we lost in World War II. That's a fascinating stat. The question I would have is that, okay, the leading cause here appears to be drug poisonings. Is that fentanyl? And also, is this rooted in loneliness and depression and why men are turning to drugs or because drugs are more available, because they're more accepted in culture?

19:11Like what, give us some of the nuance here. Yeah, the way this has been framed a lot, and you've talked about this yourself, but this idea of deaths of despair. And as I said, the rates are highest among middle-aged men, men between 30 and mid-50s. And it's been associated for a long time with declining economic prospects, community breakdown, loss of affiliation to family, religion, etc. And so if you like, that's the kind of demand side. But there's also clearly a supply side issue here too, which is the way in which these drugs, fentanyl and others, have just been flooded into some of these communities on the supply side is clearly part of the story too.

19:54And so there's actually a big debate now among social scientists whether this term deaths of despair is actually helpful or not, because what that does is it kind of points to the individuals themselves, to the communities and says it's all demand driven. Right. But actually, it's supply side as well. And we have to take both into account, I think. But but you're right. There's clearly a despair element to it. One of the things I find interesting about this is that the drugs that people generally die from are things like fentanyl, opioids, etc. They're not party drugs. They're not drugs you take to go out and have a good time, right?

20:26They're drugs that you take to retreat and withdraw. And interestingly, one of the main reasons why those drugs do end up very often killing people is because if there is a bad reaction, then there's no one with you. And so a big predictor of dying from drugs is being alone. Johan Hari, I hope I'm saying that name correctly, said that the opposite of addiction is connection. I absolutely love that. That basically kind of confirms everything you've been saying. And so I want to use that as a bridge to a jumping off point, other than telling kids, you know, not the Nancy Reagan, don't do drugs, don't do drugs alone.

21:03But also, what are some potential solutions? Should we be legalizing drugs or is it more just programs to help young men feel more connected? yeah so i'm gonna confess to not being enough of an expert on drug policy to talk seriously about that side of it but what i would say i'm much more interested in the the demand side and the conditions with which what would lead people to kind of take drugs and then with whom and to what end right to what this is back to the like are you i'm not here to endorse drug use period but But I just think like if you're taking a relatively safe pill to try and stay up late at night, or you think you're taking some cocaine, you do that very occasionally, etc.

21:46That's very different to this drug of retreat, drug of despair, drug of loneliness stuff that we're seeing playing out. So to the extent that Johan's line is correct about, and I've heard him say that too, and I like it too, it's connection. Then I think what we should be doing is pushing hard on where are the places that men, the boys and men can connect. what are the social institutions what are the places and spaces and institutions that promote encourage and support fraternity right it's it's really weird it's interesting to me you reflecting on fraternities is that the thing that i think that's probably most lacking in the lives of many young men and including and middle-aged men is fraternity it's friendships it's male friendships in particular it's a sense of community and attachment and connection so why we've allowed like boy scouts to drop the boy for example so that it's no longer boy scouts it's now scouting for america and has gone kind of co-ed but also scott like the decline in participation in sport in high school among boys it's got it's going up among girls it's going down among boys the lack of coaches the uh disengagement from extracurricular activities all that stuff It's like, it actually takes quite a lot to build community, to build connection.

23:05And we have not done a good enough job of creating places and spaces and institutions where, like, boys feel comfortable creating those relationships, which are back to where I started. Like, I was blown away by the fact that these 17, 18-year-old boys are afraid of being lonely on college campuses. and it's less true for other groups because those colleges are actually making a real point of saying there'll be affinity groups there'll be a girl a women's support group there'll be a you know girls who code group there'll be a whatever very intentional explicit attempts to create a sense of community among other groups and i think we've made the mistake of thinking that men don't need that i saw some really interesting or i talked to someone who's a family attorney which is a way of saying else people get divorced and he said he sent me some data saying that amongst gay men, marriages with gay men, 28 % divorce rate.

23:57Straight couples, 48 % divorce rate. Gay women, lesbian marriages, 72%. And I thought, wow, does this mean women bring more quote unquote divorce energy to the relationship? And that just sort of blew me away because I'd never heard that before. And he said that the path, he said he's had a lot of his clients commit suicide or die by suicide. I'm told it's the right way to say it now. And he said something really rattling. He said that we all want to believe they're mentally ill and it's something outside of our control and outside of their control. We have empathy for them. They had no control over it.