Why Podcasts Are the New TV, Careers After 50, and Divorce With Kids

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2:20feature it in our next episode.

2:28Question number one. First question comes from SolarSurfer7. Right on, dude. On Reddit, they say, I just had an epiphany that podcasts are moving to video, not because people want to watch full-length podcasts on video, because it gives you short clips that can go viral on apps, including TikTok and Instagram, and thus landing more subscribers. Do you agree with this take? Have you seen a higher growth on the podcast after moving to video format? Thanks for the question. So just some data. According to Spotify, 42 % of podcast listeners discover new shows through social media channels like Instagram, TikTok, and Facebook.

3:01So Word, the clips on video platforms are fantastic means of marketing. That's reason enough to do it on its own, but it's not the primary reason. I'll come back to that. Consumer surveys show that almost half of users on Instagram, TikTok, or YouTube shorts watch podcasts through short clips. The same study found that one-third of consumers engage with podcasts by watching video clips on social media. An industry report by Edison Media found that 80 % or four-fifths. Isn't that amazing I can do that in my head? 80 % or four-fifths? What a guy! What a guy! Anyways, some Gen Z podcast listeners discovered new shows via TikTok.

3:34But even beyond short clips, there's also evidence that people are engaging more with podcasts visually. Roughly half of Americans age 12 and over, 51%, have watched a podcast. Spotify reports that one in three U.S. monthly active users engage with video podcasts. Okay. Every year I like to have for the business, a strategic mandate. Our strategic mandate in 2025 was the same as 2024. And that was in one word, video. There are 600 ,000 podcasts that put out weekly content, 1.5 million podcasts in total. I bet the top 600 are the only ones that are economically viable. I'm not even sure the 500th most listened to podcast is economically viable.

4:11The top 100 are amazing businesses because once you get beyond a certain point, the gross margin or the incremental revenue was almost all margin. These things aren't that expensive to produce. If you look at the top 100 podcasts, you're going to see or have seen just in every 12 or 24 months, 50 rotate in and 50 churn out. Essentially, the problem with Hollywood is the following. It's the means of production has become too expensive. And that is, if you want to film a series, and I'm doing this right now, we're doing this original scripted drama on Netflix, Jesus Christ, between unions, talent, the caterer, the phone supervisor, the food design, oh my God, it is a lot of money.

4:50And I'll use Colbert as an example. I think Stephen Colbert is one of the great talents in media. His show supposedly costs$100 million to produce and make$60 million because fewer and fewer people are watching late night television. The amount of people watching late night television is off by 90%. People aren't watching linear TV. They're not watching the clips as much. Actually, that's not true. They'll watch the best 60 seconds of any of those shows, but that's not enough to sustain the business model. Basically, the business model has been starched by those video players you're talking about.

5:20And they do get something back in terms of what you're talking about in terms of marketing. But the churn in and out is, the arbiter of that churn is who has the best video game. And this is what's happening. Colbert will eventually move to podcasting and all of the band, the union players, will probably get on the arc to podcasts. And he'll be able to have an amazing podcast, not doing 100 million, but maybe doing 10 or 20 million with six people instead of the 200 people that currently work on his show. And it's going to make, you know, 10 million in profits off that 20 million because he's such an extraordinary talent.

5:53But basically, what are podcasts? Podcasts are 80 % of television shows in terms of product and production quality for 10 % of the price. That's what podcasts are. And that is a really well-done podcast. Feel like television, but they don't need to make 40, 60, 100 million dollars to be sustainable. They need to make a lot less because the means of production are so less expensive. And let me get, I'll use Pivot as an example. Pivot is between our audio listens, about 300 ,000, and our video views, 100 ,000. So 400 ,000 impressions. We'll get a blended, you get a lower CPM for the video views.

6:32Audio creates more intimacy, and advertisers like it more. We get a blended CPM probably about 30 to 40 bucks, 45 bucks for the audio. CPM's 30 bucks for the video. So call it blended of 40. CNN right now is getting 15. Why? The average age, I think of a CNBC viewer is now well into their 60s. So what do we have? What's the advantage of podcasts or a pivot? We have, whereas cable news, 30 % are in the core demographic. That is 25 to 54 year olds who advertisers love because they're stupid and they buy high margin Range Rovers and coffees and go to movies still. They love those. And 30 % of cable news now is in the core demo.

7:1170 % of listeners to Pivot are in the core demo. So if we do 400 ,000, we're getting about 280 ,000 in the core demo. The average CNN program is lucky if it gets 40 or 60 ,000 people in the core demo. So what are you getting here? You're getting the great taste of more people in the core demo, which advertisers love, with the low calories of a much lower means of production. So if Pivot does$12 to$14 million this year in top line revenue, which would be a modestly successful TV show, not a successful one, but the difference is eight or 10 of that will drop to the bottom line. Now we got to pay Vox some money to sell our ads.

7:45But as you can imagine, it's a very, very profitable business. But it's a little bit like the NBA in the sense that there's a couple million kids playing high school basketball. And I think only five are still in the NBA after three years. And they make an extraordinary amount of money. but your chances are like almost the same like getting to go into space someday. Podcasting's somewhat similar. The numbers I use, the analogy I use is crew at UCLA. There's been 2 ,800 oarsmen and oarswomen in the history of UCLA crew. I was one of them. Thank you very much. Easily the worst varsity athlete in the history of UCLA.

8:18But anyways, 2 ,800 people have rode crew at UCLA. 10 have gone to the Olympics. So what is that? Approximately 0.3%. Conservatively, not conservatively, generously 0.1%. percent of podcasts make money. So at UCLA rowing, I was three times more likely to go to the Olympics than I was to have an economically viable podcast. So mama, don't let your kids grow up to be podcasters. If you want to get into podcasting, do it, but use it as a means or start out initially thinking of it as a means of marketing another core product. For example, our videos initially at L2 were meant to raise awareness among our client base.

8:54And we did an amazing job of them. And it ultimately led to a newsletter that we turned into a media company, see about Prof. T. Media. But right now, if you're going into podcasting, you should be doing it for personal consumption or to market another product because the economics or the likelihood of breaking through to the top 100 are, again, sort of like your kid may be an amazing basketball player, which means there's like a one in 5 ,000 chance that he will end up with a sustainable income in the NBA and podcasting is somewhat similar. Anyways, the clips, yeah, fantastic marketing. But generally speaking, more broadly speaking, podcasts are becoming the new TV with a strong audio overlay.

9:33So we're all trying to raise, or the smart ones are investing more and more in video. You're going to see more and more podcasts on TV screens, and you're going to see more and more visual graphics, production values, lighting, all that stuff to try and level up. Anyways, thoughtful question. Thank you. Question number two also comes from Reddit. Dwen Dolbeck asks, With the average tenure of a job being about four years, how can those of us in our early to mid-50s who have been impacted by layoffs but cannot yet retire convince companies to take a chance on us? If I hear you're overqualified once more, I'm going to shove a TikTok up some millennial Snapchat.

10:10Yeah, so the way you're feeling is real. There's some data here. The job stability and the disruption is being felt by people, I'm going to say older, mid-career. A major 2018 study found that more than half of workers in the early 50s who had long-term jobs were laid off after age 50. Many others struggled to find steady work again or saw their pay drop by 50 % or more for a year. So first off, ask yourself a question. Can you not get a job or can you not get the job that you expect that you should have right now? You might have to take a cut and pay, boss. Even college-educated workers were hit at similar rates showing the risk cuts across education levels.

10:42And just back to the notion that can you get a job or can you just not get a job you want? No one ever thinks they're overpaid. Nobody at Prop G thinks they're overpaid. And let me tell you, they are. I'm on AI. I try to pay people between 30 % to 50 % above market, but no one thinks they're overpaid. They just think, oh, okay, I won't leave. But no one sits around and says, hey, mom, I'm overpaid. No one ever feels overpaid. And just statistically, and I can prove this to you, 50 % of the time in your career, you were overpaid. And 50%, you were underpaid. And almost 0 % of the time was a calibrated exactly.

11:17And going to the next job, the natural kind of progression or instinct is, oh, I should make the same amount or more at my next job. Maybe not. I think the workplace has become increasingly ageist as I sit here with a swollen face from just having my eyes done. And it's really strange. A lot of times when people like my content, they reference my age as a means of being critical. And I remember at L2, I hired a systems engineer who was, I think, in his 40s or 50s. and the vibe was, dude, what happened? I think if you're in technology and you're a male and you're in your 40s or 50s and you're not running the place, you're not already a multimillionaire, the general view is like, oh my God, you fucked up.

11:55I think you're just going to see a boom in cosmetic surgery and Botox and all that shit amongst men who are feeling the same ages and women have had to endure for a long time. You're in a tough spot. I don't want to sugarcoat it. And I also think that the hard part about looking for a job in your 50s is you're not willing to eat as much shit. My companies right now would be more successful if I were more aggressive and less arrogant. And my arrogance has been a bit of a function of my age. And that is, I think I could go out and get a million dollars in incremental advertising if I was willing to go have dinner or not play golf, but socialize with ad buyers or brands.

12:38I see them as we tell to me all the time, let's get together. I'm like, I don't want to hang out with you. I'm going to hang out with my kids. And I don't feel, I don't do pre-calls. I don't take advantage of 90, I know I'm boasting right now, but it's true. I don't take advantage of 98 % of the opportunities thrown my way because I'm at a point in my life where I'm like, I'm just not willing to hang out with some 35 or 40 year old that I don't want to hang out with. I find that the key to getting a job is how social you are. Study done at Google, they put out a job opening, 200 CVs within like 60 minutes.

13:08They shut it down. they bring in the 20 best candidates and 70 % of the time the person they end up hiring has an internal advocate. So one, boss, if you're in your 50s, it doesn't matter if you're in your 50s or your 20s, the advice would give you a 22-year-old self. You got to make a bunch of calls. You got to get out a big spoon and eat shit. Call people you don't want to call. Follow up, which sucks when you're older, which means you're bothering people that don't want to hear from you. Be willing to ask other people for help, reach out for copies. Hey, do you know anyone? I'm looking, but also be as social as possible.

13:41Because what I have found is that when I hear from a friend that they're looking, that my intent, I go up and I start trying to, I need to do a better job of this, of identifying potential opportunities for them. When I see them recently and they call me and say, hey, do you know anyone at Salesforce? I'm interested in this position. I'm more inclined to return the email or leverage one of my contacts to try and help them. And, you know, It's like finding a boyfriend or a girlfriend or friends. It's kind of like finding a job. It's a little bit, a lot of it is serendipity, and you want to create serendipity by putting yourself in a position around as many other mammals as possible.

14:18So it sucks to be in the position where I'm sure you've been good at what you did. You think at this point your momentum and your skills would open doors. I found even the most robust economies, it's never easy to get a job. But I think you have to do whatever it is to make yourself feel, you know, build your self-esteem. because every day, boss, every night, you got to write down a list of three or six things you're doing the next day when you grab that spoon to eat shit. Emailing people, going on LinkedIn, going out, networking. I do just think it's a numbers game. I don't think there's a silver bullet here.

14:49Also, some of the ageism you might be feeling, some of it's real, but some of it's also probably self-inflicted. And that is, it's probably not as bad as you think. You're just start to get self-conscious about it. Unfortunately, you're in a bad part of the cycle. The way you describe the labor market right now is no hire, no fire. Companies, the whole AI tsunami of layoffs has not really happened outside of tech, who are the early adopters here. Does that presage more layoffs? Probably. But also firms aren't hiring because they want to see what happens to the economy. It's like the housing market right now.

15:22There's just a lack of transactions. There's very few buyers and very few sellers. And the labor market right now is kind of no higher, no fire. So yeah, it's bad, but it's been worse. And again, I just go back to the same things. Get ready to eat shit and be as social as possible. And also, I literally, when I was younger, used to stand in front of a mirror and say, I know I can make someone happy, you know, because I was constantly single and really wanted a girlfriend. I know I can add value to a company. I was constantly starting companies failing. I know I can add value to a company. You know, I was always trying to like manifest and tell myself that I had value.

16:00And I think that's really important. And also, if you're feeling any anxiety, action absorbs anxiety. Write down a list and just start sending out emails and making appointments and calling on people. Sorry for the word salad here. Thanks for the question. We'll be right back after a quick break.

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19:21Welcome back onto our final question. Hey, Scott. I'm a big fan of yours. Thanks for all the insight and information and entertainment. I'm reaching out because I'm in my early 40s and I've heard you talk about how this is a really hard time of your life. And I agree. I'm about to enter a divorce. We have a young child and it's a lot of grief and sadness, um, and just confusion. And I think that you've been divorced and you've got kids and just lay it on me. What, what should I know? Um, what would you have told yourself as you were starting to cross the Rubicon? Thanks so much. And hope to hear from you.

20:12Oh, first boss, I'm sorry. I can just hear in your voice how sad you are. And let me give you bad news and good news. The bad news is you're in for a rough ride for at least, you think you feel better after 12 months. I found after my divorce, I didn't really start feeling normal again till after 24 months. And maybe you need to double that because you have kids. I didn't have kids when I got divorced and I think kids just are, I would imagine, rub salt in the wound. So there's just no getting around it. This is a shit sandwich and you should be able to mourn. And I would lean on your friends and talk openly about it and feel the sadness and the grief, but also recognize you're going to wake up, I don't know, six, 12, 24 months, maybe 36 months, and you're going to go, I kind of feel normal again.

20:53I'm okay again. Okay, so just some thoughts. The first is, and this comes from experience as a child divorce parents, whatever you do, do not weaponize the kids in the divorce. Oftentimes in divorce, there's a lot of anger on both sides or on one side, and it's very tempting to weaponize the kid. No, you're late. Don't pick the kid up. Complaining about your ex-spouse to the kid. This is no joke what happened to me. Let's bring this back to me. My mom used to tell me when my dad would come pick me up every other weekend when he was still living in LA, tell your father, I was eight, tell your father if the child support check isn't here by Tuesday, I'm calling his boss and telling him that he's a deadbeat dad.

21:33I would digest my entire stomach the entire weekend knowing I had to tell my dad this. And I would finally wait till the last five minutes before he dropped me off and I'd tell him my dad would fucking freak out and say, tell that bitch I'm not sending the check. And I'd have to walk back into my$200 apartment with my mom and Tarzana in the Valley and say, dad said, tell the bitch that he's not sending child. I mean, it was just, I mean, my parents had a lot of good qualities, but sophistication and understanding the nuance of divorce and kids was not one of them. Do not weaponize your kids. And even going beyond that, I think, I don't know if you have a daughter or a son, I guess it doesn't really matter, But especially for sons, I think one of the best things you can do for sons, especially sons, is treat their mom really well.

22:18I think it just sends the right signal around their approach toward women. You know, I really try to defer and show a lot of respect for my son's mom. And I never, I always have her back, even quite frankly, when I think she gets it wrong. And constantly talk her up to her kids. And by the way, I think the same is true in divorce. I think that you are always complimentary and supportive. And even when it hurts, even maybe when it's not true, of talking up their mom and showing a great deal of respect, kids remember. And unfortunately, what happens unless you're doing the whole co-parenting thing, I think they call it nesting now, where they have the kids stay in one house and the parents rotate through the house.

22:57You have to have resources to do that. I don't know if you're doing that or if it's logistically possible. But oftentimes what happens is the parent who has primary custody becomes sanctified. think dad's the bad guy. Sometimes it can go the opposite way because dad is scarce and he gets romanticized, but usually it's one is the bad guy and one's the saint because they have trouble processing just what the fuck happened and think there must be a victim and there must be an oppressor here. So hopefully you and your wife have come to an accommodation that has said, okay, what is our first priority here?