Has AI come for Hollywood?

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1:30Hello and welcome to another episode of The Rest is Entertainment with me Marina Hyde. And me Richard Osman. How are you Marina? I'm very well thank you Richard and how are you doing? I'm alright. I watched The Sound of Music for the first time ever yesterday. Did you now? Tell me. Yeah it's alright isn't it? More Nazis than I thought. But you even went to Salzburg on part of your honeymoon and you haven't seen The Sound of Music. Yeah I hadn't seen The Sound of Music but I've been made to finally. It's my wife's birthday so she said let's watch The Sound of Music. I always feel that his parenting methods were absolutely fine.

1:58he had seven children with the whistle what's wrong with the whistle he's got seven kids no help from that baroness when I lined it up and I pressed pause just at the start and I saw it was two hours 55 minutes long it's a joke the length it is and I did say to Ingrid when she walked in anything else you want to tell me about this film she hadn't told me it was three hours long I really enjoyed it anyway I hadn't watched Top Gun before I'd met her singing in the rain I hadn't watched I'm amazed you hadn't watched Top Gun I could accept all those but how would you not watch Top Gun how would you manage to get through the 80s and not watched it we've all got blind spots I'm like an articulated lorry.

2:29You've got to be careful overtaking me. Okay, now what are we going to talk about today? We are going to talk about the Saudi... No, we're going to talk about the Obamas versus the Sussexes, as in who's got the biggest media empire. Is that Barack and Michelle or Harry and Meghan? We're going to talk about Saudi money in Hollywood and Saudi Arabia's attempts to sort of position itself as a kind of new cultural centre and a great place to make movies. They've got a film festival. Anyway, we'll talk about that in a bit. So whether film washing is the new sports washing. Yes, I think, yes. But we're going to start with AI.

3:02I feel like this might have been a tipping point. There was a video release called Sora, and that's Sora, S-O-R-A, Sora, which, again, one of those made-up words that suddenly, you know. Sounds like it should exist. Why wasn't it a sort of citron in the 1990s? A citron-sora. Yeah, citron-sora, you'd think it would. What's the malt, though? Sorine. Yeah, sorine, yes. But anyway, it's a sort of made-up word that feels like it should exist, which is appropriate. Which was released by OpenAI. eye and if you haven't seen it you must take a look they're the people who have created chat gpt which even sort of 18 months ago was just isn't this fun you can sort of ask it a question about your school and it'll tell you something and now is going to be a behemoth which takes over all of hollywood and all of our culture so this video came out and it's it's a text of video application where it says saw a you know show me a kitten playing with a candle shall i tell you some of the prompts that they put in because they're quite interesting a gorgeously rendered paper craft world of a coral reef rife with colourful fish and sea creatures.

3:58Unbelievable. The video that is created from that or the supposed video, you know, it's completely all AI, it's all CGI. There was another one, a movie trailer featuring the adventures of the 30-year-old spaceman wearing a red wool knitted motorcycle helmet, blue sky, salt desert, cinematic style, shot on 35mm film, vivid colours, and it is extraordinary. It's one of those things, it's funny, it's only a sort of eight-minute long video, But I think it's the week that Hollywood finally went, oh, OK, this is a tide that's not going to turn back. They said it out loud. I mean, the director actually of one of the directors of Slow Horses, which is obviously filmed over here, but was in front of MPs and said, I've seen this.

4:40I now think it will be producing feature films in three to five years. It could probably do soap operas now. Tyler Perry, who's a big producer, said, I'm not going to expand my studio lot, which I was going to do because there's just no point having seen this thing. it's going to take over everything. Well, that's it. He was, Tyler Perry, who's huge in the States, has a huge media empire. He was about to spend$800 million expanding a studio in Atlanta. He says he was. In Atlanta. Yeah, okay. He was about to spend seven and a half grand because he got a cheaper quote. I mean, his films do slightly feel like AI anyway, I would think, but anyhow.

5:12In general, it has sent a chill through the industry. People are saying, oh my God, okay, having seen that, concept art just died. Doc Video, that just died. well I think stock video definitely just died storyboarding just died pre-vis which is a way that movie shots are conceived of on very very big and expensive movies so that artists create a pre-vis of what the scene will look like exactly and it takes a while to get there and then you're almost as the actor shown that scene particularly if it's an action scene or something that's going to be quite hard to explain pre-vis that's called yes it's called pre-vis and when you're going to spend a huge amount of money particularly on these big franchise films every single shot is done on previs.

5:51And so you're essentially showing it to people on an iPad and they are mirroring what is happening in the previs. But someone has had to create that and it's had to create it over many, many iterations. You don't get the previs right first time. What's interesting is that you can also feed video into this model and what will come out is you can say, all right, but take out this person out of this. So you could say, I'm really sorry, this movie stars Kevin Spacey, who I regard to be what my friend Julie refers to as one of the League of Semi-Cancelled Men. So can you now remove it and put somebody else in it?

6:20And they can do that. Well, actually, can you replace them with someone that you've entirely invented? It's the other thing that AI is going to be able to do very, very quickly and very, very easily. This is obviously terrifying people because they think also the way you come up in industries, the things often those crafts are something you might learn and then you might go on to different things. All of this is sort of being blown out of the water. And you think, what's the most vulnerable? This director of Slow Horses, James Hawes, said EastEnders is not. He didn't say EastEnders, but he said a soap opera.

6:51He was talking about doctors. Now, obviously, we talked about doctors when it was cancelled by the BBC on this podcast before, because what we said was, you know, that is something that so many actors got their first break in. So many technicians, so many behind the camera people get their first break in. And it's a way for people to come up in the industry and learn and do kind of daily work. and it's a great, great training ground. And now that's gone, why wouldn't you just be able to produce that with AI? Bizarrely, EastEnders are in this strange position of having just finished spending£89 million on a new set, I think it was£89 million.

7:25And now you're thinking, I'm not saying that they will do it with AI, but I would love to type in Muppets EastEnders into this thing and see what it produced. I'd love to type in Muppets EastEnders, let's do that. Now, OpenAI is saying they're not releasing this model in the way that they have to chat GPT because they want to take in conversations from stakeholders and policymakers and all the other people who aren't going to have a job soon either. It's fascinating. And the most fascinating thing, of course, is the absolute sort of exponential leap that this technology is making. So, you know, we're at the stage talking about Sora now.

7:57In 50 years' time, they can listen back to this and go, oh, that's cute. It's like we talk about, remember the first time they ever showed moving pictures in a French cinema and people ran out of the cinema because they thought a train was going to come through the screen. and they're going to be like they'll be talking about us like that because this is the very beginning of a very very very long journey now if there's any hope for the industry at all it is that it's quite hard to do the next generation of ai each time we sort of go up a generation it's using more power it's using more computers and it's using more source material the source material by the way all of which has been created by humans i know which we will get to i think about what happens with those eventual lawsuits.

8:38I have a theory as to what might happen with that lawsuit, and it will not shock you to know that rich people will do well and poorer people will do less well. But I think by the time a chat GPT-7, it's going to use every single computer in the world will be needed to be used. You'll need your own nuclear reactor to power it, and it will require more source material than there is currently in the world. Now, the thing that holds up all of that, of course, is you can't use all the computers in the world, so you've got to manufacture chips and manufacturing chips is quite a slow process. The lithium wars, yeah.

9:10Great, there's another thing you can look forward to. AI, make lithium wars. Show me the lithium wars. So in theory, AI could now take quite a long time. And equally, it might have that last mile problem that driverless cars have, which is it's easy to get to 90 % brilliant, but actually the last 10 % is incredibly hard. But don't you think to some extent we live in a, I saw someone calling it the other day, just good enough culture. You know, a lot of the stuff that people will spend all day watching on stuff like TikTok, YouTube is lo-fi. It's not got high production values and they don't mind the kind of shonkiness of it to some extent.

9:48And so that worries me that the kind of artistry is something that people are already willing to forego in the things that they spend the most of their day doing anyway. I think that's right. I think the industry will be hollowed out. I use that term very specifically, by which I mean, at the top end, there's always going to be auteurs and artisans and people will pay a premium for humanity, just as people doing shops. But the people doing that, of course, will be rich people. There'll be two-track culture. And at the very top end, there will always be projects with gatekeepers and done by people who are already in the industry and already have connections who will make that stuff.

10:22And at the bottom end, there will, of course, be loads of scrappy producers, content creators who do what they always do, which is have great ideas and just put them down. It's the stuff in the middle that goes. Linear television. Yeah, just the background stuff we watch day to day. I watch this arise in these things, fast channels, which are the free ad supported streaming services. And there's hundreds and hundreds and hundreds of them. There's one for Pointless. We can just watch Pointless 24 hours a day, which is what I watch. Yeah, of course. I never ever move the dial and there's absolutely no reason in two years time why a human being should be anywhere near that so you've got whatever library of programs you've got whatever library of comedy shows stuff that was made in the 80s and 90s or noughties no reason at all for AI not to take control of the advertising because one of the things it does is hyper hyper targeted I mean AI will be unbelievably good at advertising you'll see this in commercials imminently I mean they will already be using this in commercials like immediately there's no reason this is good enough easily for adverts easily or 100 % that I think the advertising industry is in a lot of trouble which of course means that linear television is in an awful lot of trouble because it's not suddenly going to be oh few everyone started making really expensive adverts again and then just throwing them into coronation street and the hope that some people watch it will be I'm going to get AI to make an advert for me it's going to have an AI voiceover and it's going to be targeted to exactly the people I want it to be targeted to and it's going to be insanely cheap and it's going to be just as useful as the advertising I do now so that all goes as well so I think AI is going to be hugely influential I think it's going to lose an awful lot of jobs the only thing that can happen is that it slows down at the moment it will slow down because it's hard to make chips.

12:02Can I just say something I do think is quite interesting about all of this as obviously one of the one of the unions I'm a member of is the Writers Guild of America and we were one of the unions that went on strike that last summer that we just had and It went on until October in our case and later with the Screen Actors Guild who also went on strike. But there's something quite funny about how a big part of what we were on strike about is AI and the use of AI. In the writer's case, the use of AI either to replace you or all of which has been built, by the way, on work written by actual writers who, you know, had emotional breakdowns and went to fat camp and all the different things that happen in people's lives.

12:41Writers. You know, writers. and also to say you know i don't ever want to have to be made to write a script that's been perhaps you know generated by an ai and then i work on it as a polish at the end you know um and the screen actors had their own um obviously same issues you know they didn't want to be um easily replaced all sorts of things like that and both unions won both guilds won on those kind of points and they were happy with what they got i felt at the time that you know the reasons that the studios is allowing them to win are because it's just not good enough yet. But you can be sure that the minute it is good enough, the technology, then we'll be having a whole nother conversation in three years when the deals are up again.

13:19Having said all that, it's quite unusual that kind of sort of airy-fairy industries, the writers, the screenwriters and the actors have been, had the most high profile labour disputes about this kind of across the world. Because these are about issues that are going to affect the complete wide labour market. like everybody and it's funny that actors in a way and screenwriters have been at the forefront that in quite a high profile work because it's coming for everyone what i will say about policymakers one of the things we've seen over the past few years is how they're sort of always fighting the last war if you're lucky or the last war but one you know the conservatives making a big deal about the sort of online harms bill which you know i appreciate mattered to lots of them and but you now look at things like this and think where are we on this i mean this is much much bigger this is bigger than everything and it's like they're still talking about someone waving a red flag in front of a steam train when when full electrification has taken place yes yeah and i think that that's the difficulty is keeping up and i mean the the u.s labor secretary is very interested in all of this stuff and i don't know i think she was at the screen actors guild awards these this last weekend you can be sure that they're and she i think she would sort of relish the fact that actors and screenwriters were at the front of these fights but they are labor market wide now that these this ai is going to replace so many jobs i think so and it's fascinating because there's there's there's two attacks as well which is if you won one of the big studios of course you're going to try and use ai as much as you can because we know that's what that's what capitalism is and it has to be rapacious and it has to keep growing um so they will find a way to do it but also if you're a new creator in the industry if you're a new brain and by the way it's quite hard to get into the industry and you have these tools at your disposal you would just be using them if you're a young filmmaker i remember i remember a very very young edgar wright when he was starting out and him and his friends would just make these little home movies on videos because that was a new technology that they that they could suddenly use if you're a young person now a young writer young creator young director a young actor why would you not be using these ai tools to make incredible content and sharing it with people and of course if that's your way into the industry and suddenly people say oh no but if you want to join the Screen Actors Guild, if you want to join Equity, if you want to, you know, be a Hollywood director, you have to sign up to these things which says you can't use all these technologies.

15:35You go, well, then I won't join up. And also there's an irony which is a lot of creatives are very excited about what they could do with AI. You know, you talk to writers and they know it's going to end their jobs, but they also go, God, that'd be a fascinating project I could do with AI. I wonder what it could do, or I could add pictures to the things that I'm doing. Perhaps I could cut the other people in this industry out of what I'm doing. Everybody is attracted to it, I think Sam Altman from OpenAI says, I want$7 trillion to spend on making chips, by which he means I want to set up factories that make chips.

16:06And if I do that, then AI can advance at the pace it is now. If someone doesn't give him$7 trillion, then it will take a long time. AI will advance as quickly as the manufacturing output of chip companies can go. I mean, that's essentially the maths of the thing but if the next iteration of chat gpt which you can just about do with the computing power that exists on planet earth and the source material if that is another huge step on then of course people will give them seven trillion dollars i mean it will be literally nothing and then the next one of it chat gpt 6 actually they might be able to solve a lot of problems about making chips and might be able to solve lots of the problems about how you power it and might be able to solve lots of the problems of there not being as much source material because it can start creating its own stuff so it's one of those things if we just allow the market now to be what it is then it could be five six seven eight years before we get the most unbelievable the stuff that can make everything but if open ai and sam altman are able to intervene now and put seven trillion dollars into it then this is coming like super super quickly i think that politicians will become engaged with the issue purely because they will see how it will disrupt their election.

17:20I mean, this year we will be, I mean, obviously James Cleverley's talked about it even this week. We're going to be seeing a lot of AI disruption in both in our election and in the US election. And it will, I'm sure, certainly crystallise their thinking as to how to regulate this and how to deal with it. Because, of course, the entire way that ChatGPT works is it crawls the internet for available works, television shows, images, text books and stuff like that and trains the AI on that. So it's taken the IP, the intellectual property of millions of creators and it's essentially passing it off as its own in an enormously clever way.

17:58But, you know, it didn't create any of that stuff. It is not a real thing. It is some lines of code on a chip. and every single thing it does and will ever do throughout the whole rest of history of time has already been created by other people. So those people, I think, will seek recourse and I suspect that 95 % of them will get to no recourse at all. I think 99.999 % of them. It's because it's the sum of human everything, really, that it's drawing upon. The sum of human everything by Marina Hines. Yes, I'm just doing the outline for that now. It's essentially the ultimate in plagiarism, but hiding in absolute plain sight and makes cool images so we don't mind so much.

18:41But I don't know what you think about it. I think that essentially, like music streaming really, the big studios will settle for an enormous amount of money. Because the open AIs of this world will be multi, multi, multi trillion dollar industries. They can throw you like 100 billion without even thinking about it. So the big studios will settle for huge amounts of money. they will make sure their big stars are taken care of out of that money and they will then think we've reached a tipping point we don't have to worry anymore and anyone else who ever created anything um is not going to get any money at all because what you created belongs to the studios and if so if they've done a deal with the open ai companies then you don't really have a leg to stand on what would be your take on that that feels like that that absolutely the other thing i would say is that expect to see huge amounts more really quite imminently of animations because Because the animation that this thing could produce, it could produce some sort of cute little kind of monstery thing.

19:38It could be vaguely Pixar-ish. It could be, who knows, it could be one of the sort of animation houses. That already looked like something that you would see out there in the theatres. But it's amazing. I've seen worse, let's put it that way. I've sat through worse with my children. As you say, listen, it's not going to, you know, people say, yeah, but you'll always have to have the human voice and the human emotion. And you will, but that would be really, really top-end stuff. Because, you know, that's going to be the expensive stuff to make. And no one likes making expensive stuff. But there will always be those prestige projects.

20:09As I say, at the bottom, there will always be people doing interesting things because you can't keep the creative mind down. But that entire middle of the industry, which is where everyone I've, you know, worked with my whole life works, you know, it's going to be really, really tough times, I think. Absolutely. And there's no safety net put in place. But it's the middle of culture that will disappear and be replaced by AI, I suspect. And it's coming soon. And it'll come sooner. As always, the middle in everything is going in the way that mid-budget films have fallen away. Again, we'll talk a bit more about Saudi Arabia and that.

20:39But at the moment, I cannot see a pathway to it coming back. Well, my only optimistic take would be for anyone out there and anyone who's thinking about how to fight back would be this. Currently, the studios are so massive because you have to spend 100 million to make a movie and to market a movie. And therefore, everything has to go through that filter and through that funnel. And that's why a lot of the smaller movies don't happen now. if you are suddenly able to make a smaller movie for a tenth of the price and you are able to market it more importantly for a tenth of the price then perhaps there might be a sort of united artist type you know fight back where we go actually we're going to use ai to make our product cheaper but with a human hand and a human touch and to market it more easily and to have a you know a movement that's that says we'll use ai but we want to make human product but that doesn't help the service industry to um to films and movies and television that doesn't help as you say the kind of the cgi world and all of those things but in terms of the creativity that might be out there it might be that we swing back in the opposite direction and we we mount a fight back and you know there's so many i know lots of writers and producers and stuff listen to this and that it feels like there's something there that we could maybe do but it's going to be a hell of a fight it is and if you haven't had a look at these images you can go and see them It's OpenAI, Sora, and you can see them on Twitter, X.

21:58And it's really worth taking a look at the quality of what was produced. Yeah, and your constant reaction is a mix of wow and oh no. So it's one of those things, isn't it? Listen, the rest is entertainment in 20 years' time. It's going to be very, very different. Firstly, we won't be presenting it. Oh, no, podcasts, as I've said before, podcasts are hugely vulnerable to AI. I would have thought that they were more vulnerable than almost anything. Do you not think the very essence of podcast Is it is a human interaction Oh I think it's quite possible To fake it I'm sorry to say I mean I wish I could be more optimistic But I think you'd be quite surprised Having looked at those video images I think you'd be quite surprised Of what any of it can do Why don't we try next week Why don't we just do We'll each do one a fortnight Just as long as there's one human I'll talk to an AI The guiding hand Yeah, exactly.

22:50Actually, AI, I'm not sure that's quite right. And then, yeah, one day I'll be a, yeah, I mean, I think podcasts. But again, it's that sort of artisan culture, which is, you know, it's a two-track culture, you know, and you see it in journalism. You know, there is incredibly great in-depth journalism, slow news and slow journalism and great, you know, news podcasts, but they're only being accessed by certain elements of society. A huge amount of journalism is already being produced by AI. It's being done by AI. Even in this country, I think News UK, they said that they were already sort of looking into it.

23:29And in fact, I think they are already producing quite a lot of AI content. And lots of people are. It's these industries that have been sort of buffeted by all sorts of different kind of headwinds and essentially mostly by the tech sector are all thinking that they're going to have to do things like this to survive. Well, Rory Stewart is AI. A lot of people don't know that, do they? It's amazing. Completely generated. Yeah. I mean, literally, he's never spoken a word on that podcast. He's very happily living wherever he lives. And he's, yeah, just Alistair Campbell talking to a robot. You know?

24:00Yes. And he sold a lot of books. Let's go to a break now. But after the break, we're going to talk about Harry and Meghan, Michelle and Barack and their media empires. And one of those four is AI as well. And we'll exclusively reveal which. This episode is brought to you by State Farm Checking off the boxes on your to-do list is a great feeling And when it comes to checking off coverage A State Farm agent can help you choose an option that's right for you Whether you prefer talking in person, on the phone, or using the award-winning app It's nice knowing you have help finding coverage that best fits your needs Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there

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25:30Hello and welcome back to The Rest is Entertainment. Welcome back. I am no longer Richard Osman. I'm still Marina Hyde. And we are going to talk about the Sussexes and the Obamas, who, to some extent, are people who obviously come from outside of the entertainment industry. They were given big, big deals, overall deals, as we call them. I'll talk about those in just a second. They both got them with Netflix and with Spotify. Obviously, they also have their own publishing deals. And the Obamas signed theirs in 2018. The Sussexes signed theirs in 2020. The Obama's have actually produced quite a lot.

26:05An overall deal, I'll tell you what one is. The Obama's, I can't remember what their, theirs was eight figures. The Sussex's was nine figures. It was more than 100 million. What you get for that, then Netflix says, we will cover all your production company. You know, we'll cover all your overheads. But anything you develop and produce is for us. It's not a first look deal. It can't, if we don't like it, go somewhere else. It lives and dies with us. They don't give you a check for$100 million up front. it is contingent because they're not that stupid whether we think they've been slightly stupid is a matter of debate but it's contingent on you kind of producing a certain amount of material now the obamas have produced quite a lot of stuff um and that netflix have actually renewed with them i think quite a lot of people were amazed when netflix renewed with the obamas but they still have produced quite lots and it's obviously very prestigious to have they've won oscars as well There's a documentary of there's one Oscars.

26:58American Factory. Yeah, and they are clearly very engaged. They are obviously deep thinkers. They want to curate stuff. They employ good people. They employ very, very good people. And there is a prestige to having them. And when the streamers, and I'm talking about Spotify as well as someone like Netflix, were trying to build out, were trying to become, were trying to race for scale and to become these huge things, it is a big, big prestige thing to sign the Obamas. And you can see why Spotify paid the same for the Obamas as they did for Joe Rogan. I can tell you, 25 million was a sort of magic number in those days.

27:35And I can tell you, they've obviously done all the better out of the Joe Rogan deal than they did out of the Obamas. But the Sussexes, I mean, three years on from that deal, more than three years on now, they have got an Invictus Games documentary. This is the games for wounded servicemen servicemen and um it's kind of recovered injured service personnel that um harry began which is fine but it's really niche and then they had the one but it is yeah it is it's niche and then they had they had a show for children called pearl cancelled it never aired they've bought some film rights which nothing has happened with the only thing they have produced is their documentary about themselves which i think was called finding freedom or something ridiculous which of course has done very well because in my view they have one story to tell ever that is the only interesting story anyone is interested to hear for them which is the stories of their grievances with the royal family that's it they do not as far as i'm concerned tell me what their brand is i mean they are a brand of grievance i would really worry about what his therapist says to him because i would say you know your money maker is this kind of discord with your family and it seems to me it'd be quite good to be able to separate those two things in the interest of moving forward in personal growth and healing but that is the only way they can make money in my view and i think netflix have got into a whole world of pain what do you think i mean well yeah it's it's it's fascinating isn't it because the netflix deal seems to have sort of come to an end i mean netflix are not really admitting that they're not really admitting it certainly the spotify deal has come to an end megan markle did a podcast she did 12 episodes of a podcast wow Wow.

29:17I mean, that's like a Monday morning for you and I. Yeah. And they got sort of$20 million for that. And she did 12 episodes. It came to an end. My goodness, there was that... Did you see that Bill Simmons, who started the Ringer Network of Podcasts, who is sort of very brilliant, and which he eventually sold to Spotify, and he has a sort of executive position there. He said on his own podcast, I wish I had been involved in the Meghan and Harry leave Spotify negotiation. The fucking grifters. That's the podcast we should have launched with them. I've got to get drunk one night and tell the story of the zoom I had with Harry to try and help him with a podcast idea it's one of my best stories fuck them the grifters which is you know opaque it's not clear what he thinks about them but yeah I mean yeah but listen we're we're in an industry where that happens all the time as soon as someone gets a big name they can sign a big output deal the talented ones it pays off for everybody the untalented ones you've seen work out you think oh you were just flavor of the month for a little bit and I've massively overpaid for you which is why always in in in tv strike when you're when when when you know you're absolutely at the top of your game because you can get an enormous deal and then you know netflix and whatever can repent at leisure so it's it's not it's quite an old story they haven't got it because you know because it's some miracle it's often when people are absolutely at the height of their powers someone else will overpay for them massively uh and i've always hate it because you go what you're not gonna what are you gonna get for a hundred million i don't get what you think you're They've just got a production company, and what are they, coming and pitching you, game shows?