The Gen-Z Trend Killing Pop Music

0:00Richard Osman:This episode is brought to you by Octopus Energy. Now, it is awards season. Everyone is wondering who's going to clean up. And we tend to think awards are about that one big moment, like, oh, my goodness, that one night, that speech. I can't believe I've won. But the effort that goes into winning an award. Everyone going for one of those big movie awards. It's not a coincidence that Academy members or whatever are saying, oh, did you see that thing? Yeah, I did. It was really good. there is a remorseless many months campaign and there are tens of people working on every single film's awards campaign.

0:32Richard Osman:I thought you were going to say tens of thousands. No, no. But there are tens. Yeah, there are tens. But that's quite a lot when you think of like one, and it's a full-time job. We mention this only because we are announcing our presenting partnership with the lovely people at Octopus Energy who have just won the Witch Recommended Provider of the Year for the ninth time in a row. And that is not something you get just by year. Which is hard to win. Which is hard to win. Which is hard to win. Which is hard to win. But nine in a row, I would say that makes Octopus Energy the Meryl Streep of the business.

1:02Oh, yeah. They're the Meryl.

1:04Richard Osman:They're the absolute Meryl. I call them Meryl Energy. That's what I call them. I'm not an astronaut. I don't need an astronaut. Audiences have spoken. Project Hail Mary is an awe-inspiring masterpiece. So, I met an alien. If you've fallen out of love with going to the movies, this one will bring you back. Hang on! Ryan Gosling in the first must-see movie of 2026. Project Hail Mary, rated PG-13, may be inappropriate for children under 13. Only in theaters March 20th. 5 a.m., I'm up with a crisp Celsius energy drink. Running 12 miles today. Grab a green juice, quick change, and head to work. Meetings, workshops.

1:48One more Celsius. No slowing down. Working late, but obviously still meeting the girls for a little dancing. Celsius. Live. Fit. Go. Grab a cold, refreshing Celsius at your local retailer or locate now at Celsius.com.

2:06Hello and welcome to this episode of The Rest is Entertainment with me, Marina Hyde.

2:11Richard Osman:And me, Richard Osman. Hello, listeners. Hello, Marina. Hello, Richard. How are you? I mean, yeah, I'm not too bad. How are you? I'm very well, thank you. Very well indeed. Have you had a busy week? I only ask because for the last half hour you've been telling me what a busy week you've had. And that's not the first time I've been telling you this week that it's been a busy week. Yeah, I've had a really busy week, Richard. I can't bore everyone else with it. Sorry, that was just for you. Okay. But I'm excited to talk about the subjects we're talking about because they're really interesting. There are two websites, they're called Calci and Polymarket, and you are going to hear an awful lot more about them in the next 18 months, two years, in the world of television, in the world of entertainment, certainly in the world of content as well.

2:45Richard Osman:they are both companies which could save our industry or doom humanity and we're going to talk about why one of one of those two things is going to happen we're also going to talk about britney spears who has sold her music catalogue um for an undisclosed sum and we're going to talk about why she might have done that why people do it why people acquire catalogue and much more broadly about catalogue itself and also we're going to talk about whether that means new music has died in some way that we're spending so much money on old music what has happened to new music okay let's begin with calcium polymarket let's talk about calcium polymarket so they're these two businesses they're called prediction markets now you and i would look at these things and go hold on they're betting companies because essentially you can predict anything you could predict the score of the um super bowl on calcium and polymarket you could predict the score on Premier League football.

3:42Richard Osman:You could predict all sorts of things. So to you and I, that would be... The viewership of the Super Bowl. Yeah. All sorts, the weather in your state. But, you know, that's not a prediction. It's a bet. OK, but it's called prediction and that becomes important. Financially, that becomes important in this story. Now, these two companies, Calci and Polymarket, very hard to get official figures of quite how much they turn over. But it looks like last year, they're somewhere around 63 billion. and that is almost double. They thought it was 12 billion in December alone. Yeah, I mean it's absolutely huge and the way they're doing it, if you go on the front page of Cauchy and Polymarket, which you must do after this, it's very, very interesting.

4:22Richard Osman:I wouldn't recommend anyone bets because you will lose but it's just interesting sociologically to look. That's the thing I'd always say, not bet responsibly but just remember that you will definitely lose money. There will be, as you say, there'll be Oscar bets you can make, what's going to win, you know best movie there will be bets on how many times is elon musk going to tweet next week currently favorite is 360 to 379 bernie sanders is about to do a speech in north carolina will he use any of the following words will he use the word minneapolis you can bet on that you can bet on when donald trump might bomb iran you can bet on this awful story of of nancy guthrie the mother of Savannah Guthrie, the US presenter who's been kidnapped, you can bet on whether they're going to arrest someone.

5:11Richard Osman:I mean, you can bet on anything. You can bet, I'll give you the odds, in fact, you can bet on, will Jesus Christ return before 2027? What sort of chance do you think there is of that happening? Tell me at time of recording. At time of recording, 4%. Wow, that's not nothing. I mean, that's America. You can also get, you know, will the USA reveal the existence of aliens? That's 10 % at the moment. So it's a betting thing, but it's not just on, you know. By the way, if they've got anything, they should put it out right now. It'd be very helpful in many ways. Well, I presume that's why some people are betting on it.

5:47Richard Osman:They're thinking that's Trump's last card, isn't it? By the way. Area 51. There was an alien. You may hold the key to this. Yeah, exactly. So, as you say, in the States, for whatever reason, these companies are classed as prediction markets, not betting companies. Because sports betting is illegal until very... It's legal in 20 states, betting. Now it is, but until something like 2018. And they had to go to the Supreme Court and overturn it all. And then they've done it at a federal level. And some people have allowed different versions of it. Which is kind of weird for us because we don't understand that culture.

6:22We can bet on anything.

6:23Richard Osman:And the two big companies in the betting space are Fanjul and DraftKings, which are regulated as gambling entities. and you can bet in 20 states and you can't bet in the other 30. Now, all of these companies, why are we talking about it on an entertainment podcast? And the reason is they are all inveigling their way into entertainment, especially into live entertainment, which, as we know, that's the biggest version of entertainment that is left for us. So DraftKings and FanDuel, you'll see all over. If you live in a particular state, you'll be able to see the progress of your bets on screen as you're watching an NFL game.

7:00Richard Osman:We saw at the Golden Globes, Polymarket were the company who were providing the odds saying who's going to win best actor, who's going to win best movie. They paid a huge amount for that. Some people say they paid$100 million. I know. I don't think they did pay$100 million, but they paid a lot. It was really sort of janky. I mean, it looked really naff. But the hosts mentioned them all. And, you know, I think Hollywood sort of bristled at them being there. Having spoken to people involved, I think Polymarket themselves understand that what they did at the Golden Globes, which is who's about to win this thing that you're going to win, which by and large in most awards ceremonies you sort of know actually rather spoiled it.

7:38Richard Osman:And they should be betting on how many people thank their agent, how many people go over their time. You know, whimsical things that add a little bit of value to a broadcast. You know, you're still advertising your company and you're still getting value for money, but you are making the broadcast better. but it is clear that they, Calshi who've got deals at CNN, CNBC. Well, that's the weirdest thing at the moment. They've got a ticker running along the bottom on CNN and you can bet on, you know, the news is a market. You can bet on things happening much as you would be able to see a ticker going across the sports broadcast and bet on those things.

8:13Or the stocks, which is the thing that legitimizes it. Because Wall Street is essentially gambling, of course, and always has been, And there's something kind of heritage and legacy about the idea that, you know, futures markets have always been with us just in different forms.

8:28Richard Osman:The trick they're playing and the trick they've been allowed to play is they're legislated as a financial services company, as a prediction company, as a derivatives company. So if you want to get completely specific about what they're regulated at. So people are not gambling. They're making informed decisions on where the future of a market might be. So they find themselves in a situation where they are not regulated in the way that betting companies are. So they can sort of embed themselves in news and they can embed themselves in sport and all of these type of things without any sort of legislation against it.

9:00Can I give you an example of how unregulated they are? Because I found this so funny. Somebody on Calci opened an account, as in had never traded before, made one trade on the Super Bowl, bet 50k that Gargoy would be a kind of guest of Bad Bunny. then six hours later made eight out of eight correct predictions on people who would not be co-performers and then said yes but Ricky Martin would do it's like it's just completely unreal okay so obviously what I'm saying in case it's not extremely obvious because you're not a betting person that is obviously a form of insider trading but obviously that person knows what's happening and also in the derivatives market you don't actually get prosecuted for insider trading

9:41Richard Osman:You are allowed to use personal knowledge that you have, which is what people do. I mean, even to the extent that there was a bet placed just before Nicolas Maduro was captured by the Americans, a bet that made$400 ,000 that Maduro would be captured in the next day. Now, I mean, that's someone who knows that Maduro is about to be captured. Bides time on the stakeout. Yeah, exactly. There was an allegation which has not been proved that Caroline Levitt, Trump's press secretary, she was doing a press briefing. And you can bet on how long the press briefings will take. And they said just before, I think, the 65-minute mark, she looked at her watch and stopped immediately.

10:21Richard Osman:So there were people saying, oh, I bet that someone's had a bet on Kelshi or Polymarket. So you find yourself in this wild west over there where you have these companies that allow you, you know, you don't need to mince your word to bet on pretty much anything. Richard, that is fascinating in a dark way. How will it influence this world that we talk about, entertainment? The guy who came up with Polymarket. October last year, he became the world's youngest ever self-made billionaire. okay and he was 28 years old 27 years old in fact uh last year he's a self-made billionaire through polymarket now i suspect that his title has just been taken by someone we talked about the other week and i think for the same reason so we talked about um carby lame yeah the tiktok star who just signed a billion dollar deal for e-commerce and what these guys are doing and what they really want to get into is we talked for years and years about second screen viewing which is people are always on their phone when your program is on the television.

11:20Richard Osman:Now, there's two things they can be doing. Looking at someone else's content that someone else is monetizing. You're giving their data to somebody else. Or they can be looking at something which you have a part of. E-commerce, of course, is that. So that's why Kabi Lame is worth a billion dollars because you can be watching him and you can be buying something at the same time. And Polymarket and Kalshi are worth so much money because you can be betting on the thing you are watching. And in the same way that we all understand that, you know, you can bet in match in the football, you can be watching a reality show and be betting all the way through.

11:53Richard Osman:So you're double screening, but the people who are funding the big screen are also getting money from the small screen as well. Who's going to win traitors? Who's going to go at this roundtable? That sort of thing. All of that kind of stuff. I mean, interesting thing, Calci, you've got huge markets right now on Survivor, on traitors, on Love is Blind. Beast Games, all of that stuff. So where is this going? Well, I would say this from producers I talk to in the States and from people at those companies. Television is not overfunded at the moment. We have a funding crisis in television. People are looking for money from everywhere.

12:29Richard Osman:Movies are as well. That's why they're looking for Saudi Arabian money. If there's money out there, people want it. Polymarket and Calci find themselves absolutely awash with money. I mean, crazily awash with money. and not that many places that they can spend it. So they can spend it on Super Bowl, they can spend it on live sports, they can spend it on live events, those sorts of things. But we are going to get to the stage where they start funding events themselves. So in the same way that you can bet on Survivor and Traitors and what have you, which is a slightly tricky market for them because some people know already who's won.

13:07Richard Osman:But if you're Polymarket and you team up with one of the big entertainment producers, which is definitely what they will do, You are producing shows that are live, that are always on, and that have a series of things in them that you can bet on. So you're producing a big, you team up with a big entertainment producer. You come up with a format that's very sticky anyway and is very exciting anyway. And you just run it and run it and run it and run it. And in it, there is market after market after market. The prize money for that show. The creators are literally just greyhounds. No offence to greyhounds or creators.

13:39Richard Osman:The entire budget of that show, the entire winnings of that show can be funded by losing bets. Oh, beyond far. I mean, the amount of money. And that is definitely coming down the track. Over here, it will be harder because over here they'll be regulated as betting companies. But also, one of the things I think about when you talk like that is that I think the culture is already so softened up for it. We've talked about it how often before, even down to the things like buying Le Boobies. people expect there to be disappointment something transactional the gamification of absolutely every single tiny thing and that huge you know a lot of people always say you know when they're trying to be clever about gambling it's a form of self-loathing you're addicted to losing because that's the thing that happens most um and actually that's the thing it's a form of like whatever an agent was asked about and he was saying these newer audiences exactly that increasingly accustomed to and addicted to interacting with what's on their screens and He said, look at what fantasy football has done for the NFL.

14:33Richard Osman:It increases viewership and increases people's engagement. This agent says, when you gamify things, everything's more interesting. It matters more when there's money on it. Well, I have a lot of sympathy with if you gamify something, it's more interesting, for sure. And if you're playing fantasy football, I had to give up fantasy football because it got too interesting for me. Because everything that happened had an impact on me. One day at a time. The thing about fantasy football is it doesn't cost you anything. The thing about gambling is it does cost you something. It costs you a lot. And actually, online gambling is, you know, very available to people.

15:09Richard Osman:But it sort of is and it sort of isn't. Gambling is not overt in our culture in the way that entertainment is. I know if you watch Sky, there's a million gambling adverts. I absolutely get it. But it's not overt in our culture. Whereas if you take this new generation of people who, as you say, are used to having a transactional relationship with the people they love watching on TV. if you've got a TV show that you can bet on and it's live and involves creators who we know are on a piece of it and that's absolutely fine and sponsored by someone who's on a piece of it that's absolutely fine because that's what we've grown up with that is a situation where you've got to be very careful how you know we can see the money it brings in and we can see how it's funded but who is funding it and yeah you know betting companies tend to make a lot of their money from a small amount of people so for tv producers i think it's very interesting that there's this prediction market of ridiculous things and i think it's certainly interesting that there's a lot of money out there a lot of money and i think it's interesting that the people at polymarket and calci are also reaching out and saying what is it that we can do we're not quite should we've haven't stumbled upon these billions but you know what they also sort of have a little bit is taking them by surprise quite the pickup they have on some of the most ridiculous markets that they have so somewhere that is all going to come together what else i think that has we started to see is that young people are saying oh a check polymarket they want to watch the news they just want to see a needle telling them exactly how likely something is to happen that's enough news so again that sort of slightly worries me that every single tiny thing is being reduced in the It's like, you know, what's going to happen?

16:45Tell me, just give me the results.

16:47Richard Osman:Yeah. There is an argument that says that in the world of news, this is incredibly dangerous because if people start using it as a predictive tool, then, you know, it ends in a very bad place. Personally, I don't think that's an issue. I think people are smart enough about markets. You know, you look at the markets for any political thing and you know it's just where the money has gone. That's all it is. And that, by the way, is the same in prediction markets. It's just, it's not really predicting. where has the rest of the money gone that's all I just think that it is while they are legal or quasi-legal in the States a number of big entertainment propositions are going to crop up in the next 18 months wildly funded I mean funded like an entertainment show hasn't been for years and years and years I remember when we were like oh my god who wants to be a millionaire that's so clever they're giving away the million because everyone's ringing in and they're taking a piece of the phone line and that was like the most revolutionary thing I've ever done.

17:44Richard Osman:But if you want to do a TV show with a£25 million prize, here you go. Absolutely doable, but it would be funded by losing bets. But everyone I speak to is thinking about it. Certainly those companies are thinking about it as well. As I say, over here, you wouldn't necessarily be able to commission it because of the regulatory issues. But if you're YouTube or if you're someone like that, then of course you could do. in some ways it's hard because the other the one other drawback to it with even within their like tv market or whatever it is is that shows have to be live at the same time for everyone to be and because of the time differences across the states it's it's hard to export you have to create local versions but i'm sure with ai they could find that quite easy but here's the thing with this always on i mean you just create something that does that that's the point if you're an entertainment producer well you just do it on youtube you go oh what's the issue oh, the issue is that we can't put it at nine o 'clock Eastern time because that's, you know, the rest of the world don't have that.

18:46Richard Osman:You think, well, hold on, I've got steps all around the world. I've got different time zones everywhere in the world that I can schedule different things, different things for different markets. But, you know, the place is the same. You know, the platform is the same. It's just you use that fact. So that for me would be a positive rather than a negative. Also, if you're a podcaster, I mean, have an always-on podcast where, you know, random events are happening which can be predicted or not predicted. I mean, it's, there's free money right there. I can assure you that if we have one, you are running it.

19:18No, I'm not going anywhere near it. But again, you've become too obsessed with it.

19:20Richard Osman:I'm not going anywhere near it. Imagine how obsessed you've become with it. But it's, you know, these ideas are so simple and they're all out there and people will do them. I do not need a cut, but it's all there. Anything live and unpredictable that can be funded by a company making money off people betting on unpredictable things is an absolute shoo-in in the next 18 months, two years. We're going to have big entertainment propositions, which are live, which are funded entirely by prediction markets. Over here, they will be gambling companies. But I just thought it's an interesting thing for people to keep an eye on when something like this crops up.

19:56Richard Osman:This is where it's come from, and this is why it's come about as well. But everybody I speak to now in the world of live events and the world of entertainment is having conversations about this and about this extraordinary source of money. I think for the movie industry, I don't see there's anything in this. I don't see how that works, particularly for microdramas. Yes, 100%. If I am Cowshoe or Polymarket, I would put so much money into microdramas because I have 20, 30, 40 different cliffhangers, which I have absolute control on when they get released. I absolutely can have an either or thing that happens at the end of every single one of those things.

20:40Richard Osman:So 100 % it will go into micro dramas, but also the world of game, reality, creator, influencer, economy, stuff that has any sort of challenge, stuff that has any sort of A or B option to it. All of that can be paid for by this and it'll be a market which they would massively exploit. Imagine how many more people you need trying to work out whether people are inside trading or do you just not have any. I don't think they're fast. You know, because so long as they're making money, you know, they always say you never see a broke bookie. Not that these people are bookies, they're prediction marketeers.

21:14Right, after this break, we're going to be talking to you about Britney Spears and her selling her music catalogue and what it all means.

21:20Richard Osman:Or are we? You can bet right now on polymarket.com. See you after the break.

21:32I'm R.J. Decker, a private investigator uncovering the sunshine state's darkest secrets. Tuesdays, it's the premiere of ABC's hottest new crime show. R.J. freaking Decker as I live and breathe. He's a private eye. It's not a standard murder. It's something bigger. And a public mess. Trying to get sent back to prison today? You go to prison one time and suddenly it's all the jokes. R.J. Decker, series premiere, Tuesdays on ABC and stream on Hulu. Bless. Bless. This class again? Don't sit in courses you've already taken. University of Phoenix accepts eligible transfer credits and has a scholarship for transfer students.

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