160. TRUMP’S TARIFFS RULED ILLEGAL

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16:36Anthony Scaramucci:I think that's all right, Anthony, that this is a blow to the Trump administration. This is a containing strategy from the Supreme Court. We have several checks and balances that are kicking in. We're still waiting to see whether Republicans in Congress stand up to Donald Trump. He has ever since 2016 had this curious hold over the party, which hasn't broken. But I don't think that we should be saying to audiences around the world that this suddenly means that Trump, Donald Trump, is not still going to be a huge, erratic, potentially wayward player on the global stage. Because I think there is a chance he has three more years left in office.

17:18Anthony Scaramucci:I don't see him just deciding to go down to Mar-a-Lago and play golf. I think we're going to see more of the grift. We're going to see more of the kinds of actions that we might be on the doorstep of in Iran. I don't think the whole issue of Greenland has necessarily gone away. And I don't think and if it's not Greenland, it's going to be something else. The Donald Trump himself has said that he thinks this is a disgrace. He's told people he's in a meeting in the White House. It's being reported. He also says that he has a backup plan. So I think he is going to try and carry on implementing these tariffs.

17:48Anthony Scaramucci:But I still think we have it's not like this ruling is going to suddenly make Donald Trump a normal, calm, moderate president who's going to turn around the Republican Party in Congress and suddenly say, OK, guys, you know, let's get back to normal. I just don't think that is where he's going to go when Donald Trump's back is up against the wall. His instinct is to fight. So I still think we could have other actions around the world on the tariffs and these refunds. there's a lot of people asking about the refunds. Is the money still there? Sam Risseter is asking or already funneled to the rich friends.

18:21Anthony Scaramucci:I think you're right. It's what you said recently that people are already buying these for 10 cents on the dollar. Some people are going to get very rich on this. I don't think many of the businesses that paid the tariffs and it was businesses, often small businesses in Italy, France, China, Norway, you know, Brazil, who swallowed the cost of these tariffs. I don't think those small businesses are suddenly going to get a whole load of refund checks. But Donald Trump, he has a bit of a problem because he's already promised quite a lot of this money. I mean, he's promised it in payments to farmers.

18:53Anthony Scaramucci:He's promised it in Trump bonds. He's promised it in refunds to people. What's he going to do, for example, with those farm payments, Anthony? I mean, how many times can you spend this money? And if he's already spent it, what happens then? I mean, as Justice Kavanaugh said, this is messy yeah it's going to be messy it doesn't mean it shouldn't happen but it is going

19:13Katty Kay:to be messy so what happens well listen it's going to be it's going to be messy but uh you know the government obviously has uh taxing power caddy uh the government also has uh borrowing power and if necessary they'll end up borrowing the money uh and again despite the deficit in the united states we can step into the united states can step into the capital markets and more or less borrow at will. So I don't see that as a problem. The benefit here to the U.S. consumer, depending on which statistical study you're looking at, it's$1 ,300 to$1 ,700 per consumer. You and I have always told people that these tariffs are very regressive.

19:56Katty Kay:That's real money for the working poor. And so that will be a positive. I think one of the things that Trump's got to be very, very careful of, if his economic team has any brains left, they'll be saying, hey, listen, this is going to widen the deficit due to refunds. If you start to impose replacement tariffs, you're going to create even more chaos and you're going to potentially create even higher inflation expectations, which is going to make it harder for the Federal Reserve to cut rates. You'd be better off yielding to the Supreme Court on this, going to the Congress and trying to get some taxing power if you can.

20:38Katty Kay:The chances of that are unlikely because of people like Rand Paul and Thomas Massey and normal Republicans. But, Caddy, I hear you that he'll still act like a rogue with Greenland and Canada and things like that. But this has weakened him. Trust me, in the corridors of power. They are talking to each other and saying, thank God. And there are economic people. There are people on his economic team that are saying, okay, good. This is good for the US economy, that we're not going to have this tariff in position over the next three years. And so, you know, and listen, I mean, Tony's asking, I just want to address this mooch newsflash, who on the planet wants to buy US bonds and treasuries at the moment, But the honest answer is everybody, because just go into the capital, just go into the capital markets and take a look despite our problems.

21:35Katty Kay:And we have many, many problems. The confidence level in the U.S. paying back that debt is enormously high. And this actually this case, if you don't mind me saying so, this case makes that even more confident, Caddy. The system is holding this against Trumpism.

21:56Anthony Scaramucci:And so I think that's very important. Let's look a little bit at the politics of this, both the domestic and the international politics of this, because at Worcester Rooster is asking, how does America recover from the global relationships he has destroyed? How do we revalidate ourselves? He's already blown up the neighborhood. The neighbors aren't going to want to move back. I think you've got a very good point there that even if I think in terms of the you can hear a sigh of relief coming from many countries in the world, particularly from the European Union. I've been texting with people from the EU in the last hour who are saying, and the official version is we're just looking at this, but there is definitely relief.

22:33Anthony Scaramucci:They were the ones that were finding it trickiest, negotiate with Donald Trump around tariffs. They see a vindication for having tried to hold the line against tariffs, against Trump on tariffs. And they hope that there will now be more stability. So countries around the world are hoping that this could lead to more stability, at least on the tariff front. It's been a nightmare for them for the last eight months trying to deal with this. But even if he can't, even though he's saying right now today, I have a backup plan, even if he can't reimpose these tariffs, even if that backup plan fails and we get back to some degree of normality, this has caused, as you and I found, Anthony, right, when we went to the World Economic Forum in Davos, this tariff policy combined with Greenland, combined with bombing Venezuela, combined with are we going to bomb Iran, take out their nuclear program, program, we've obliterated their nuclear program, oh, sorry, six months later, we've got to go back in again.

23:30Anthony Scaramucci:All of that, I think the damage from Liberation Day has been done. I think that it's going to be very hard. It's part of what has undermined the dollar, undermined confidence in the United States as a global leader. And even if this gets unwound, even if there were to be refunds for countries around the world, we know this. Other countries have already done big trade deals that they weren't able to do before, the EU with Latin America, the EU with India, the Canadians with the Europeans on supply chains. And that is all because of this Liberation Day. Would it have been better if the Supreme Court had ruled on this much faster?

24:12Anthony Scaramucci:The longer this went on, the more damage was being done to America's reputation and confidence in America. Inc.

24:23Katty Kay:Yes, I think that it was that's the process. Unfortunately, it had to go through the district court and the court of appeals. He moved it. If you remember, this is a case that should have hit the docket in February of this year with the decision rendered in June of 2026. So he moved the case to the end of 2025 to get the decision out. This is six months early for the Supreme court but yes you're right you know this is definitely something that uh you know we we wish we didn't have to deal with but but i you know i i just want to say to the people because i'm reading some of the comments here i just want to say to people uh you know listen uh it's we're in a tough spot the u.s i'm not going to say otherwise we have this miscreant running the white house he's got willing sycophants and he has a spineless republican congress and he has a very disorganized opposition.

25:21Katty Kay:So the opposition is fighting with itself as opposed to consolidating to fight him. So we're in a very, very tough spot. But if you think about the Constitution, Caddy, the Constitution is holding because these nine people, six of them just said, hey, we're not going to go in that direction. And so, you know, Trump is sitting there muttering to himself that he only got a 33 % return on his investment, meaning he had three Supreme Court justices that he picked.

25:52Anthony Scaramucci:The only one he likes is the middle pick.

25:55Katty Kay:Right, right. Exactly. The one that likes beer. I like beer. I like beer. This is dope. Okay. But in any event, you just have to think about that even his own judges wouldn't bail him out on this. And so, that's the big thing. I think that we will - It's a big deal. It's a big deal. Somebody just said that we're going to overcome this period of chaos. I absolutely believe that. But this is a big blow to them. And I just want to point out to you guys, I know we have to go. He really has limited backup options, okay? In section 22 of the trade deals, the cariffs would have to be capped at 15%. So, this nonsense of going to 25 and 35 and all this other stuff is crazy.

26:41Katty Kay:He can only do that, by the way, for 150 days. Okay. And the other sections, 301 and 232, they require formal investigations and congressional oversight. So this is a big, big blow to him. But Trump is also a lucky SOP. Okay. This is a big blow to him, but weirdly, this is going to help him, Katty Kay, because this is going to improve the economy. Right. So this is a good question. Bacent is saying to himself, okay, thank God this is happening. Right.

27:15Anthony Scaramucci:Because actually what happened last year, the trade deficit went up. Guess what happened to manufacturing? It went down in the United States. The whole premise of these tariffs. Donald Trump, there's one word that Donald Trump goes round and round his head all the time, and it's nostalgia, a feeling that he has that things used to be better. And the underlying reason for these tariffs was that he was going to recreate an America that manufactured T-shirts and shoes and all these things that it stopped manufacturing, that it's outsourced long ago, and Americans were going to go back and work in factories.

27:48Anthony Scaramucci:And it hasn't actually worked. I mean, maybe the administration would say, well, we didn't have enough time. It was too choppy. It was too up and down. We needed longer in the tariffs. This was going to be the year that it worked. But every economist that you speak to said it was never going to happen. That was a pipe dream that we were never going to recreate the manufacturing dream of Donald Trump's 1970s and 1960s, which is what he was sort of the whole premise of these tariffs were. So Matthew Byrne 4223 is asking, does this indirectly benefit Trump now that he may have to reverse his tariffs?

28:19Anthony Scaramucci:This may benefit the economy or is this the latest violent swing of the tariffs, which will further chaos? I think, Matthew, you're right. And I think the latest numbers that we've seen, those numbers around the trade deficit going up last year and the manufacturing jobs going down last year in the United States are a reminder of why the tariff policy. I mean, I don't know. Are we wrong, Anthony? Could the tariff policy have produced a manufacturing glory days back in the United States? Of course, it didn't. It didn't, and it wasn't going to.

28:49Katty Kay:The Wall Street Journal had a great article about this last week. If anything, it hurt manufacturing in the U.S. because lots of components that are coming into the United States have been tariff. They've increased the prices of the goods that are being made here in the United States. An example, if you have a flat screen in your car or an airplane, well, guess what, Katty Kay? You got to import that. We don't make those anymore. So, you know, listen, I'm with the people that are still upset at the U.S. I'm with the people that are upset at the culture in the United States. I understand many Canadians are boycotting travel into the U.S.

29:26Katty Kay:or boycotting purchases. A lot of people have turned on us because of the way we've turned on them. But I think the message here from the United States is that this is a group of people that are running the executive branch temporarily. The Constitution, which is, you know, it's going to be 236 years old. The country is going to be 250 years old, but the Constitution is 236, 237 years old, is holding. And I think this is a really big thing. And I just want to point out that the recourse that the president has is very, very limited on these. and he's now because i know his personality he's now going to be uh he's going to be more sheepish with these political leaders he doesn't have the power well and maybe that he tried to pretend that he had it and maybe those political leaders will

30:23Anthony Scaramucci:feel a little emboldened so we asked you guys a poll question during this live stream thank you for joining you all of you particularly those of you who are founding members we love having you with us. If you're not a founding member, you can join at TheRestIsPoliticsUS.com. Anyway, here's the poll results. The question was, do you think the system will ultimately hold against Trumpism? Results 66, yes. 35, no. I agree. And I have always believed that the American system will hold. And this reminds me of something that Senator Coons said to you and I that has not got a lot of attention in the press, but I think is really worth people knowing.

30:58Anthony Scaramucci:over the course of the last year, attorneys general around the country have brought, how many lawsuits was it, Anthony? Hundreds of lawsuits against the Trump administration and they have won 75 % of the time. And all of those lawsuits have been checks on executive power, the misuse of executive power. So at a quiet level, the system is holding. At this headline level from the Supreme Court, the system is holding. One person has asked us on the chat, I just want to take this last question, and this is from Ellie Pheasants. So what happens if Postas just ignores the ruling? Didn't they themselves basically give him a free pass to obeying any laws while in office?

31:39Anthony Scaramucci:He's not going to ignore the ruling. My prediction here is he's not going to ignore the ruling. And I think if he did ignore the ruling, this is what constitutional lawyers have said to me right from the beginning of this administration. The moment to pull the ripcord is when Donald Trump ignores a Supreme Court ruling. I don't think he's going to ignore this ruling. I mean, the people around him will end up going to jail.

32:00Katty Kay:Maybe Trump, and I get the point of the question, maybe Trump will have immunity for that, but the people that he'll need to execute ignoring the ruling will all end up in jail, Katty. And by the way, the people have had enough, you know, the people have had enough. And we're seeing that in votes, by the

32:21Anthony Scaramucci:By the way, we're seeing that in votes. There have been dozens of votes that are swinging against.

32:24Katty Kay:Bad for the world. Yeah. Bad for the economy, bad for the world. And the people have had enough.

32:29Anthony Scaramucci:And we're seeing that in votes around the country. You're getting state Senate votes, special elections, and time and again, there has been this 13-point swing away from Republicans to Democrats. So the people are making it clear that they're not happy. The polls are making it clear they're not happy. And now we have this very important Supreme Court ruling, which will be a containment on the president and his use, I think, of trying to use this idea of emergencies to expand presidential power in a way that the American Constitution doesn't understand.

33:03Katty Kay:Trump was driving around in a Ferrari caddy, but it turns out it's just the golf cart. That's the irony of the whole thing. He doesn't have the power that he thought.

33:11Anthony Scaramucci:Which doesn't mean he is not going to make his presence felt both domestically and on the international stage. There is still going to be an awful lot for us to cover because this president is not going to sit and be quiet for the next three years. He's going to shift to more grifting, Gatti.

33:25Katty Kay:Trust me, he's going to shift to more grifting. His goal right now is to keep the F-15 file suppressed and make himself a couple billion dollars. That's his goal now. He's going to shift to the grifting.

33:37Anthony Scaramucci:okay guys we'll be back next week thank you so much for joining us uh we just thought this was worth hopping on and doing a quick emergency pod on thanks for joining us guys thank you guys

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