163. TRUMP STRIKES IRAN - ARE WE AT WAR?

16:53Anthony Scaramucci:And the opposition, by the way, in Iran is not particularly organized. It's not particularly well armed in order to succeed. I mean, that's what Donald Trump is saying there. Look, take this opportunity. It might be the best one you have in a country that had a well organized, well armed, clear, top down, structured opposition. That would be one thing. But my understanding is that that's a big, I think the number of unknowns here are what are worrying people.

17:24Katty Kay:I want to role play with you for a second. We're in the situation room and you're the president and I'm your chief of, I'm the joint chief of staff. And I say to you, President K, we have seven to 10 days of munitions. President Kay, we have low stockpiles all over the world, even though we have a trillion dollar military. If we're going to do this level of military adventurism, what is the end game? How much of a strike can we put on the Iranians? And will that create regime change or not create regime change? And I just want to add to this. This morning, our friend Senator Chris Kroons, the senator from Delaware, was on the air this morning saying that if it backfires, the repressive regime will start killing more of its own citizens.

18:17Katty Kay:So now you're the president of the United States. I say this to you and you say what?

18:25Anthony Scaramucci:Senator Kroons said the same thing, by the way, to me this morning as well, that they're worried about this, you know, enormous amounts of repression if this backfires. I say to you, I want to know what the odds are of the Iranian opposition being well organized enough that they could take over control of all of the apparatus of the Iranian government if we moved out Ayatollah Khamenei and not just Ayatollah Khamenei, but we've got to get rid of the nuclear infrastructure and the people who are in charge of that nuclear infrastructure. We have to get rid of sufficient numbers of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

19:05Anthony Scaramucci:Tell me that we can do that, Mr. National Security Advisor, and that they will be gone, that the police will not then stay loyal to other factions within the regime who would step in instead. I would want all of those questions answered before I took action of this type. Now, the counter to that, Mr. National Security Advisor, is, is the Iranian regime weakened in a way that we have not seen in the last decade or two? And would we be crazy not to take this opportunity to have a chance at getting rid of a regime that wants to annihilate Israel, the West and the United States and is trying to build a nuclear weapon, which will make the world less safe?

19:47Anthony Scaramucci:I don't think that can you answer those questions, Mr. National Security Advisor? Can you give me the answers to all of those questions, please?

19:54Katty Kay:Well, I can't actually, you know, and you're fired. You're fired, Mr. Scaramucci. Well, but you fired me after 11 minutes. I lasted 11 days in the real world. But here's the point. I'm making that point by illustrating this example. Too many questions without answers. Yes, exactly. And how perilous and how dangerous this all is. But number one, I think people need to know because they are asking, is this illegal? And the answer is yes, it's illegal. Let's not pretend otherwise. Number two, as an American who loves my country and as a patriot, would I have recommended this strike? I would not have recommended this strike.

20:30Katty Kay:You can call me whatever you want, but this military flexing like this ultimately does not help the United States. And again, I understand the need for people who are pro-Iranian citizens. They certainly want the regime change, but I think this is a very dangerous way to go about it. And it always has a doctrine of unintended consequences. But but go to the Trump base for a second, Katty. Tell me what you think the Trump base is thinking about all this. I know Fox News is beating the drum and the jingoism, but really the Trump base is not super happy with this. Are they? No.

21:06Anthony Scaramucci:So this is really this is interesting. If you look at that ABC poll, you don't have 100 percent of Republicans supporting this. And I think you've got like 20 percent who are very worried about some kind of military action in Iran. The fact that you have 56 percent who don't trust Donald Trump in the country world broadly to make the right decisions on this. This is not what this is two things. This is not what MAGA signed up for. This is not America first. They were not thrilled with the military action in Venezuela, but they tolerated it because it was one strike in and out. But we saw the polls around that beforehand.

21:45Anthony Scaramucci:MAGA voices are trying to, apart from people like Tucker Carlson, who have opposed this, but there are MAGA voices online who are saying, this is great. This is what our president was elected to do. Nobody else has been brave enough to do this. He's strong enough. He can obliterate the Iranian threat. But look, maybe this does all work out like that. Maybe this all works out. But MAGA, as we have seen in poll after poll, want Donald Trump to focus on affordability and immigration. But they're happy with that now because the border is safe. But really, they want him to focus at home. They want him to focus on domestic issues.

22:20Anthony Scaramucci:And Iran is he has said it himself. The irony of this is when they struck Venezuela, you had people in the administration saying, well, this is right next door. This is not. What did he say at that time? He said, this is different from Iraq because it's not a 24 hour plane ride away. Well, Iraq, in my case, just looking at a map, Iraq was right next to Iran. So so he was making the case that you don't want to be doing foreign adventures off in the Middle East. And I think what he hasn't done and all the polling shows this, he has all of the polling has shown this recently. He has not made the case domestically for why this had to be done now.

22:57Anthony Scaramucci:Why now? Why did this have to be done right now? when he told us he'd obliterated around nuclear program last summer. Were they rebuilding it this quickly? Were they on the point of launching an attack against the United States? Was there some? We have not heard that. And that's why you've got members of Congress saying, we need more briefing on this to be happy with this action. Democratic members of Congress, because Republican members of Congress are keeping quiet about this.

23:22Katty Kay:I think it's important for people to understand the psychology here, because I have said on this program that Trump is going to move the goalposts on you. You're loyal to me. Yes, I am. OK, I'm not for forever wars. OK, you're not. OK, I'm going to vote for you. I'm now president. I'm for forever wars. If you're loyal to me, it's asymmetric and it's unconditional loyalty. And so you now have to be for the forever wars. OK, and this is what he does to everybody. And so I'm just going to say this, that MAGA fractures over this for sure. You mentioned Tucker Carlson. There'll be others. Vivek Ramaswamy is fracturing from this.

24:02Katty Kay:The populace are not going to be happy. People are asking about the markets. Let's address that. I think it's too early. Markets are down a little bit. Oil is up a little bit. But I think it's too early until we really see the full effect of this. But right now, it's early. But let me tell you something. $5.50 a gallon in the United States as a result of this action, not going to make people happy. OK, the media ecosystem is also something to watch here because the Netflix guys went to see Trump in the White House last week and Trump said, bye bye. My buddies, the Ellison family, are going to buy this thing.

24:42Katty Kay:OK, and I wrote a piece which I'm going to put out today on monopolistic power, Caddy, and how dangerous monopolistic power is in a society because it's really the last vestiges of unregulated crony capitalism. OK, and so you've got the danger now that the media ecosystem is going to support him in a reckless way, in my opinion, with some level of lack of objectivity.

25:08Anthony Scaramucci:So, so I'm going to push back a little bit there, Anthony, because I don't think that's going to be the whole of the media ecosystem. I think you have plenty of good, solid American reporters at The Wall Street Journal, not a particularly left wing hippy dippy organization. You've got them at The New York Times. You've got The Washington Post, even under Jeff Bezos. You've got across American television networks and online platforms who are going to hold the administration to account as as journalists should with any administration. I do think you're going to have questions about what happens to CBS and CNN.

25:41Anthony Scaramucci:I hope you're right.

25:43Katty Kay:I hope you're right. But watch the FCC and watch the administration crack down on these people, because Trump is an instinctive guy. And what he does not want to have happen is over the next 48 to 72 hours, Caddy, he does not want anybody to have a license to dissent from him. And if you've got Tucker Carlson opening up a seam or Fox News opening up a seam and that starts to happen, that will erode his support. But I take your point and I really do hope you're right.

26:14Anthony Scaramucci:We're just going to take a quick break and then we're going to come back with some of your questions and some of the polls that we've been asking you about.

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27:38Anthony Scaramucci:Quick couple of polls. Let's get to those that we've asked you guys. There are about 10 ,000 of you listening so far. Will Trump's attacks on Iran weaken the US? 79 % of you say yes, they will weaken the US. Donald Trump, of course, and many people in the MAGA world are framing this as an act of strength. But there are already attacks against American activities, assets in the region, and there could be long term further attacks. And we don't know whether this leads to regime change or not, or leads to more chaos and a hardening of the regime in the US. And I think it's also going to raise questions amongst America's allies once we see how this pans out about America, like you say, it's believing only that might makes right.

28:24Anthony Scaramucci:Quick other poll that I wanted to get your response to. What's the most likely scenario in the wake of these strikes we've asked you? Successful regime change 5%, a civil war in Iran, 31%, u.s defeated by around eight percent another forever war 56 do you think this leads to another

28:43Katty Kay:forever war anthony i i don't i don't think we have the four strike capability for forever war and so i i don't think it can lead to a forever war because you can't get the troops in there you know one of the one of the big problems if you talk to the military about iran and including the distance that you were describing earlier uh you'd have to base troops and you'd have to amass troops for six months before you could get in there. You could bomb them. You could do the things that we're doing right now. But again, if it doesn't create regime change, okay, it may have a refractoring effect. Remember, when your country's getting bombed, even if you don't like your government, you may end up siding with your government in terms of the self-defense of the country.

29:30Katty Kay:It's an odd thing.

29:30Anthony Scaramucci:People don't like their country being attacked. It's kind of weird by outside forces. We've sort of learned that recently. But I agree with you. I don't think, I actually don't. And I also think MAGA and Republicans would not actually tolerate a big on the ground presence of American troops in Iran. I think that would be something that would lead to even more of a fracturing of MAGA. So I don't think this is another forever war, even if it's a few days. I think it's more likely to be a few days that ends up with a very messy situation in Iran than it is to be a long-running war like it was.

30:04Katty Kay:I mean, it's interesting because I've been scrolling through the comments and it hasn't come up yet, at least maybe it has. I missed it, but the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz, small width, 22-mile width, 25 % of the world's oil is coming through that strait. Lots of it is going to China, other parts of the world. But for some reason, if that closes, you do have a catastrophic, and I'm going to repeat this, a catastrophic economic event because you'll shut down 25 percent of the world's oil and you'll send the oil prices to the roof. And so the U.S. has to be monitoring that as well. OK, and that's a big danger, Caddy.

30:48Katty Kay:Somebody is asking the question, Mary Lee Dillon is asking the question, what is Putin getting out of this? So I have my thoughts, Gatti, but what are your thoughts? What is Putin getting out of this?

30:58Anthony Scaramucci:So we know that the Iranians and the Russians have been working together in the war in Ukraine. The Russians and the Iranians have been working together on drone purchases that the Russians have been taking from the Iranians, at least initially. They've been getting Iranian oil. I think Russia likes the sight of America getting involved in something that could potentially cause damage to the United States. Anything that causes damage to the U.S. around the world and undermines support for the U.S. around the world. Anything that sees American assets being attacked is a good day for Vladimir Putin.

31:45Anthony Scaramucci:I don't see much other way to see this. I mean, they don't really need those Iranian drones anymore because they've now figured out how to make enough of them themselves. They're getting technology, more technology parts from other places. So I don't see how this isn't a good thing for the Russians. What do you think?

32:03Katty Kay:In addition to all that, I'll just name a couple of things. OK, every Tomahawk missile that's fired at Iran can't go to the Ukrainians. It's not that Trump is giving them any anymore anyway, but it increases his leverage in Ukraine massively because it's another big distraction. Don't forget that Russia is still an oil and gas superpower. So if the energy prices go up, it's money that goes directly into the pocket of the Russians, helps them fund the war. And also the diplomatic positioning on this, Mary Lee Dillon, is a gift to Vladimir Putin because he can simultaneously play peacemaker and victim.

32:39Katty Kay:He can go to the U.N. and rally the global south against America. And, you know, he can team up with China and he can share the narrative of Western imperialism, Western unilateral aggression. And, of course, with the BRIC nations, as they're trying to find a way away from the U.S. dollar and the hegemony of the U.S. dollar, this could also play to his hands there. And so, you know, he's loving this.

33:08Anthony Scaramucci:But it's also, I think the other thing is it does reinforce what Mark Carney had said, because to your point, this is internationally illegal. I think we we have to see how this pans out to know whether Congress will actually get involved and whether he has to go to Congress to continue this legally in the United States. But it totally underlines what Mark Carney said in Davos, that there's the international rules-based order that we have all spoken about for so long works in some ways for some people and in some ways for other people. So I think it helps Vladimir Putin, like you say, it helps Vladimir Putin.

33:45Katty Kay:It is a misguided forward vision. The U.S. should be focusing on rebuilding its infrastructure, rebuilding its education, rebuilding the system that made America great. Actually, this flat, decentralized system.

33:59Anthony Scaramucci:Which is exactly what American voters tell us in every poll.

34:02Katty Kay:And they're moving in this authoritarian thing. Carrie, Larry, do you mind if I ask you one more question? And then Larry Marcus, Larry Marcus, 2231, Carrie. Does the administration really believe that the U.S. mainland is untouchable? Have they even considered that possibility? What do you say about that?

34:22Anthony Scaramucci:So, look, I think I know that people in the CIA and the FBI and in the intelligence community have always worried about Iranian sleeper cells in the U.S. homeland. They were worried about this on the strikes last time around last summer, and we didn't actually see any of those cells materialize or certainly we didn't see them strike U.S. assets. So I know there are concerns among some people in the intelligence community that are not enough has been done to lay the groundwork for this in terms of making sure that there isn't retaliation at some point against American assets, whether it's these sleeper cells that we see acting in the United States or somewhere else abroad.

35:04Anthony Scaramucci:But I think the real concern is less the U.S. mainland. I don't think anyone's very concerned about the Iranians attacking the U.S. mainland right now with missiles. They can't do that. But they are concerned about the Iranians taking action against U.S. personnel, embassy personnel, military personnel, American embassies around the world. If I am the American ambassador in Switzerland right now, I have suddenly stepped up my security apparatus around my facility. You have to. So I think that is more of the concern than some kind of a strike against the American homeland. But I do know that they have looked at and been worried about sleeper cells in the United States.

35:46Katty Kay:So I'll just say two quick words on this. For 45 years, they've been building this asymmetric terror organization around the world. and so it's not impossible for them to inflict damage on the homeland. I think it would be very costly for Donald Trump, though. He's probably thinking to himself, I can manage the downside risk and that'll consolidate people around me if some people are hurt here in the homeland. But I really think it's going to cost. I mean, Trump has the risk now where people are exhausted that, you know, you talk about Trump derangement syndrome, but there's also Trump fatigue syndrome.

36:26Katty Kay:Trump has the risk now where the average American, even those that voted for him, said, hey, I didn't sign up for this. I am now fatigued with this guy's unilateral craziness. And now look at what's going on in our backyard. So so to me, I think that's a big danger.

36:41Anthony Scaramucci:So I think that gets to this question. This is a good one from Rambo Trout. Will this be used to mess with the midterms? I think we spoke a little bit about the timing of this. And I know that Alistair and Rory on their live stream that they did earlier also questioned the timing of this. Anthony, you spoke about Epstein and we should dig into that a little bit more because there's lots of questions about Epstein. But I think that if we are all looking for timing questions, I think there is a way in which Donald Trump did not want to do this the month before the midterm elections in case this all turns out really badly.

37:14Anthony Scaramucci:To your point about how people are exhausted, they're exhausted because there is so much news. We had to do a live stream on tariffs just 10 days ago. That seems like three years ago because there is nonstop drama coming out of this administration. And so in a way, I think he thinks if he does this now, if his national security advisor has not been able to answer the question sufficiently and this doesn't pan out, then I guess that they can hope in six months time people will have moved on because they flood the zone with other issues. But I do I I think the bigger midterm question is the question.

37:48Anthony Scaramucci:here you go this is the one that i wanted to get to butterflies are for free butterflies are free 2703 why is it our job to change the regime in iran we've got our own problems with the government ice i think it's more than ice i think it's a very good point that's that is the point you do it now because you hope that by the time that you get to the midterms scott besant is right the american economy is doing better that is their only hope they can turn around the approval ratings and if this all goes and becomes a shit show or just fizzles out and there isn't regime change or there's regime change but as is the case look at the middle east right look at the arab spring look at libya you have regime change but it's actually no better than the regime that was there in the first place in terms of welcoming america it's a very tough neck of the woods but cat but katie

38:37Katty Kay:let me answer butterflies are free a little differently if you don't mind butterflies are free. The Department of Justice has been caught covering up accusations of Donald Trump raping children. Okay, Katty, am I making that up? Katty? I mean, that's documented. The Wall Street Journal is putting that out. The New York Times. I'm not making that up. That's not me saying it. So butterflies are free. Hey, man, I got to get the gun off that bird. One way to get the gun off that verb is let's bomb Iran, right? And so just don't forget that everything is tied together. And this school children hit, Cady, is going to be a big tragedy for the United States.

39:24Anthony Scaramucci:I think it's going to be a huge tragedy for the United States.

39:26Katty Kay:It's going to be really problematic. And it's going to cause civil disobedience in the United States. People are going to look at this and say, okay, wait a minute now, this is actually also a regime. We're talking about the Iranians as a regime, but the United States is acting unilaterally. Donald Trump is saying he wants to disavow the Supreme Court and apply the tariffs any which way that he wants, even though it's outside of the purview of the Constitution. He's now going after the Iranians. We know it's illegal internationally. He can take some cover domestically, Katty, but this is now acting like a regime.

40:09Katty Kay:I love my country. And thankfully for right now, I still have free speech in my country. At some point, a group of people are going to get together and act as dissidents in the United States. And so, you know, again, you talk about the midterms, maybe that'll be the action. But then again, who knows? Maybe Donald Trump will say, hey, I got to put the National Guard in every blue state and I'm going to require voter ID from every single person in the blue states so I can suppress the blue state votes on my way into these midterms. And if you tell me that that's not on the table for Donald Trump, we're 13 months into this mental midget second term and he's capable of doing anything.

40:55Katty Kay:So people think that he's not capable of doing it or people think oh that's ridiculous no it's not ridiculous by the way you

41:03Anthony Scaramucci:and i said exactly this 10 days ago that when donald trump takes a hit domestically or feels threatened domestically and his powers have been curtailed by the supreme court recently domestically watch for continued activity around the world quick couple of updates guys the british prime minister keir starmer says the british planes are in the sky today in the middle east as part of coordinated regional defensive operations to protect our people, our interests and our allies. So America's allies around the world are now having to take military action to protect themselves because of the strikes that have been launched by the Iranians and by the Israelis.

41:41Anthony Scaramucci:This is also interesting. Reuters is saying that two senior Iranian officials are believed to have been killed in the attacks, the defense minister and the Revolutionary Guards commander have been killed. Okay, I want to, before we end this, I want to put one scenario to you. Let's say, Antony, which is what some MAGA people are saying, and it's why I think everybody's slightly holding their fire a little bit on this. Let's say they get rid of the regime. They successfully decapitate the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, they successfully decapitate the nuclear program, this time actually decapitated, and they get rid of Ayatollah Khamenei.

42:27Anthony Scaramucci:Let's say that happens. And a way is opened up. I think there's the chances of this in our polling amongst you guys suggest this is also the case. I think it's not a clear possibility. But anyway, the way is wakened up for regime change in Iran, which is more Western friendly, a regime comes in that is more Western friendly. At that point, does Donald Trump look like he was the right, this was the right thing to do? So do you have to depend on the outcomes?

42:55Katty Kay:Let me take two more steps to that, okay? The Iran's military capability significantly degraded. Their terror networks significantly degraded. The regime is in transition by mid-summer. Oil prices have stabilized. American casualties are minimal. I think that's going to be very beneficial to Donald Trump, and I think that would probably help them. Okay, so, and somebody's asking, well, don't you want to free Iran? Of course I want to free Iran.

43:24Anthony Scaramucci:And that's why I think it's worth playing out this scenario.

43:26Katty Kay:Let me tell you something, okay? What you learn when you go into these jobs, you read the presidential daily brief. It's not Hollywood, ladies and gentlemen. There are a 20 % probability of this, a 50 % probability of that, a 71 % probability of this. the American intelligence agencies know some things, but they don't know everything. And one thing you and I both know, Caddy, is they don't know with certainty just about anything, right? You know that and I know that. And so I'm just saying, of course, I want to free Iran. Of course, I want this to work out. Okay, we're in it now. And so I'm praying for the best possible outcome.

44:06Katty Kay:I'll say something to piss everybody off. I'm praying for the best possible outcome, even if it helps Donald Trump, who I can't stand as a human being. I'm praying for that best possible outcome. But, Katty, this stuff can spin out of control, okay? It can spin out of control very, very quickly. And I just want to make sure people are aware of that.

44:26Anthony Scaramucci:As Donald Rumsfeld once said, there are so many known unknowns and unknown unknowns. And in this case, there are a lot of things that the U.S. intelligence community isn't totally up on. Do you think the winner of the FIFA Peace Prize is going to win the Nobel Peace Prize as a result of this action, Kat? I think he can say goodbye to the Nobel Peace Prize as a result of this action and watch this story about the kids in that school. I agree with you. That is exactly the kind of thing that will make both Americans and people around the world think this is America acting in a way that is lawless, unfettered.

45:08Anthony Scaramucci:and throwing its weight around and just being a bully around the world. And that damages America in the long term because the next time America wants people to support it or wants other countries to support it, that's a problem.

45:21Katty Kay:And again, guys, I want this to end positively, and I want this to end in a way that is good for the Iranians.

45:29Anthony Scaramucci:Which is exactly also what sensible Democrats and sensible Republicans are saying this morning.

45:34Katty Kay:And I want there to be a democratic transition in Iran. who wouldn't want that? Of course I want that, but I'm just telling you 25 years of observing military adventurism in the Middle East. It didn't, Katie, did it work out in Libya? Did it work out in Syria? Has it really worked out in Iraq? What about Afghanistan where we replaced the Taliban with the Taliban, Katie? Has it, has it worked out?

46:04Anthony Scaramucci:No, it hasn't. And that and his and Donald Trump ran and won an election on the basis that those wars didn't work out. And he was going to be the guy that got America out of those wars. Now, what the White House would say is this is different. We're just going with strikes, no boots on the ground. We had a once in a lifetime opportunity to decapitate a regime. I think we all have to wait and see what happens. OK, guys, we're going to take a break here. We're going to watch this, obviously, over the next few days. And then as things unfold, we'll come back and give you updates when we think it's worth giving you updates and when there is something new for us to say.

46:43Anthony Scaramucci:So thank you guys for joining us. Another busy Saturday.

46:46Katty Kay:I appreciate you guys being on. I love all the comments and questions, guys. Great questions.

46:50Anthony Scaramucci:Thanks, guys.

46:50Katty Kay:Thank you.

46:58Katty Kay:Did Vladimir Putin interfere in the US 2016 presidential election? I'm Gordon Carrera, national security journalist. And I'm David McCloskey, author and former CIA analyst. And we are the hosts of The Rest is Classified. And in our latest series, we're going deep inside the 2016 election to reveal the true story of whether the Russians helped Donald Trump take the White House. This is the unbelievable story of how Russian spies first hacked and then leaked emails belonging to Hillary Clinton's campaign, how Julian Assange got involved with Putin's spies, and how 2016 marked the point that the world changed forever.

47:38Katty Kay:Get the full insider scoop by listening to The Rest is Classified, wherever you get your podcasts.