200. Trump’s Immigration Crackdown Will Backfire

16:34Katty Kay:Or who is the one person in this party? Let's all be honest with each other. There's a divide going on, Caddy, between the left and the hard left. And then there's a group that, hey, man, we didn't get the communism pure enough in San Francisco. Let's make it more pure. Guys, knock it off. Country's not ready for any of that culturally. Get together, subordinate your personal interest to one attractive candidate, but they won't do that. And Trump runs them. He runs them. Okay, you know how Putin runs Trump while Trump runs the Democrats. And that's the irony there. I wish they would stop doing that, you know, because we need a fortified opposition and a coordinated opposition to Donald Trump.

17:23Katty Kay:And he has them very uncoordinated right now.

17:26Anthony Scaramucci:Okay. Some breaking news just as we go on the Supreme Court, because they have declined. He's won on immigration, but he is lost on the sexual harassment case, abuse case from E. Jean Carroll. You remember we spoke about E. Jean Carroll a lot. Donald Trump was found guilty of sexually abusing her. And the Supreme Court, Donald Trump went to the Supreme Court and said, overturn the case for me. And the Supreme Court, without any reasoning and no public notices, no public dissents, has declined the president's request to have that case reviewed. So he owes E. Jean Carroll 5 million. So you win some, you lose some, Donald Trump.

18:09Katty Kay:Hi, this is Gary Lineker from Goalhangers. The rest is football. This episode is brought to you by Wise. It's only when you start moving money between currencies that you really think about the exchange rate, the fee, and what might be hidden away in the small print. Whether you're living abroad, paying someone overseas, or just trying to manage your money across borders, you want a fair exchange rate, an easy transfer and no surprises along the way. Wise keeps things simple. Wise is a smart way to move the currencies you need around the globe. It works in more than 160 countries and with over 40 currencies.

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19:22Katty Kay:Trust me, I know fans. They don't skip, they stay for hours. They don't move on, they manifest. They're not a demographic group, they're fans. Spotify Advertising, you're among fans.

19:40Anthony Scaramucci:Welcome back to The Rest is Politics US. Happy birthday America, Anthony. I think we should start with what the polling shows us about not just Donald Trump, because the polls on Trump are terrible, but I found a poll that also talked about the American dream more broadly. And as income inequality has grown in America, people's belief in the prospects for American dream has also grown. I mean, basically, this idea that America was a country of potential and prosperity. And if you worked hard and played by the rules, you could get ahead and you could have a life that was better than your parents, as you have done, and your grandparents, that notion kind of peaked in the 1950s and 60s, which is also when people believed in government.

20:33Anthony Scaramucci:And it's sort of been declining ever since, but it really dropped off the cliff in 2008. And today, only 51 % of American adults think there is an American dream for them. And I think that's a very sad way for America to be celebrating its 250th birthday, because in a way, that was the whole point of the country, right? That if you came here, and you worked hard, and you played by the rules, and you believed in the Constitution, you could progress from wherever you started. And it was not like Europe. It was not like Britain, where you were stuck in a kind of rigid class bound structure that didn't exist.

21:08Anthony Scaramucci:And yet today we have a system in America where there is more social mobility in the UK than there is in the US. And where does that leave this young country that you were talking about?

21:18Katty Kay:Well, I mean, I'm bummed out because the sentiment is something that you feel locally too. Why are you laughing?

21:26Anthony Scaramucci:I was expecting a sort of, you know, a kind of moment of great eloquence and I got the perfect Long Island answer.

21:34Katty Kay:Yeah, I'm bummed out. How could you not be bummed out? The perfect Scaramucci eloquence. You know, I wanted to take my kids like my father did to go see the sailboats that are going to be in the harbor. They're like, no way. We don't have no interest in that.

21:45Anthony Scaramucci:Because it has become, this celebration has become Trump's celebration, right?

21:49Katty Kay:He's made it a campaign rally, okay? And he made it a celebration about me, the person, as opposed to we, the people. You see, I don't understand. A great leader would be like, hey, hey, we got to get everybody together. And whether you like me or dislike me, we're unified. The first name of the country is United. It's not the dis United States of America. But, but Caddy, the numbers that you gave, I want to give a few more numbers and I want you to react to them. 29%, this is from the Pew Research Poll, the cross tabs, 29 % of the US adults say that they are satisfied with how the country's going.

22:31Katty Kay:69 % say that they're unsatisfied. 2 % don't care. 19 % of the Americans think the signers of the Declaration of Independence would be pleased by the way the US has turned out. 77 % say disappointed. But the one that gets me is from Fox. This is a Fox News poll, and it's really not a poll as much as it is word association, describe the United States today. Two-thirds of the people polled decided to go with a negative word. Ready? Failing, divided, struggling, corrupt. My God, Caddy. Okay, so to me, I'm bummed out about that. Yeah, that isn't a Long Island expression. But then, you know, last but not least, when people are asked, well, okay, you're bummed out, but would you want to leave?

23:25Katty Kay:Two-thirds of the American voters describe the United States in negative terms, but 81 % say they still want to live here. So, I'm in that camp. I want to fix it, Katty. But why such malaise on what should be a celebration? And by the way, this is the longest lasting government, as everybody knows in the world. This is the one that stood the test of two and a half centuries.

23:51Anthony Scaramucci:I mean, first of all, shout out to Pew Research. If you ever want to really understand what's happening in America, Pew just are the best. And on big moments, they do these big demographic studies of the country and how the country is feeling and how the country is doing. And they're always objective. They're totally nonpartisan. And it's a very good way to try and get a kind of read on the country. And I thought those numbers, I looked at the Pew's sort of 250th take on America too, and I found it equally depressing. The shrinking middle class story is very real. And in a way, it's not really the story of the shrinking middle class.

24:29Anthony Scaramucci:It's a story of a growing working class and a growing upper class in terms of income. And it doesn't feel particularly like America. I think we have actually seen record numbers of people leaving the country. Now, of course, they are the people that can afford to go and live in Portugal or go and live in Spain or wherever it is. But a lot of people still feel patriotic. I think a lot of Americans think this too shall pass and this period of Trump and corruption and this kind of presidency that we spoke about last week that Jonathan Swan and Maggie Haberman described so well as this incredibly powerful presidency that doesn't look like kind of presidency that the founding fathers had in mind with this huge power grab and money grab for people around him, that that will pass.

25:18Anthony Scaramucci:But I think actually what interests me more about the state of the country, America has a real demographic problem. It has this middle class that is shrinking. And you've written a whole book about this that we will talk about later, But I think that is where the malaise comes from. That's where when you ask people, are you satisfied, only 29%, only 19 % say the founding fathers, signers of the constitution would be satisfied, would be happy with the way the country has developed. I think it's that, isn't it, Anthony? It's this, where has the middle class of this country gone? Where can they find their home?

25:59Anthony Scaramucci:and we see no signs of that reversing. I don't see how that reverses itself. That is the number that needs to grow in America, not decline. The top 20 % control 87 % of the wealth.

26:15Katty Kay:Does that sound right? I mean, and by the way, I'm all about capitalism and I'm all about unlimited upside for people. I believe in unequal outcomes, Katya. I'm all about that. You want to work 10 times harder than somebody else, you can earn 10 times more. But that's not really what's going on now. There's a circle. There's a feedback loop between the very rich and the federal government and Citizens United, campaign contributions plowing into the country's elected officials. And then they're doing the bidding of the people. They're giving them tax cuts. They've got corporate welfare. You know, when Gavin, which I think was the stupidest thing he's done so far, Gavin Newsom says he wants a national wealth tax, okay, very stupid, will likely not get the nomination because of that.

27:06Katty Kay:And if they've run on that, they will 100 % lose to the Republican candidate because people don't want that. But I understand why he's saying it.

27:13Anthony Scaramucci:Why do you think he is saying it, Anthony? That's interesting. You understand why. Is he saying it to catch up with the move of the Democratic Party? Or is he saying it for kind of practical reasons? we can't have a national state wealth tax in California, but not in Texas and Florida, because we're going to lose our rich people to those states.

27:30Katty Kay:Those are two reasons why he's saying it. But the mega reason is a social engineering reason. He's looking around saying, oh, my God, the system's gotten wildly unfair. I got to send a message to people that the way we're going to make the system fair is to take a layer of wealth away from all these people. Okay. But that's not the right way to do it. Okay. Teddy Roosevelt wouldn't have done it that way. You know, you, you, you break up the trust, you defeat the monopolies, you splinter these special interest groups. How about unplugging the money from the system via Citizens United? Okay. There's so many different ways you could do this, you know, by doing it that way, you're telling people that the government's going to be in the confiscation business.

28:16Katty Kay:And by the way, I'm going to tell you something about how Americans think. So give me 30 seconds. I've made my money. Okay. But I have to pay 50 % tax. Maybe that's not a high tax in Europe, but that's Americans think it's a high tax. Now I'm going to go to the store and I'm going to buy something for myself. Well, there's an extra 10 % that you have to pay in sales taxes. Okay. No problem. And then I own a house, but my annual property taxes are quite high. and I can go through all the different layers of taxes in the country. It turns out if you make a dollar, you're able to keep about 34 cents of the dollar.

28:50Katty Kay:And so let's say that I'm the ant and I'm not the grasshopper. And I say, okay, I'm going to take this money and I'm going to save it for my family. And now why are you laughing, Kat?

29:00Anthony Scaramucci:Because I'm just quickly trying to get into the ant and the grasshopper. I'm like, I had to do a little bit of a fable turn there.

29:07Katty Kay:Yeah, the ant is out there working away, saving food for his family. The grasshopper's playing all summer long. And the ant is building his own wood chest. Yeah, and then the grasshopper's knocking on the door and saying, hey, man, I'm starving out here. And he's looking at him and going, look, you were partying the whole summer. I'm here making a minute. In my family, I've been the ant, but I fed every grasshopper. That's a whole other topic. I know.

29:31Anthony Scaramucci:You are totally the ant.

29:33Katty Kay:This could be the rest is therapy, okay?

29:36Anthony Scaramucci:I'm going to teach you how to be a little bit more of a grasshopper, a little bit more European, actually take a little bit. Anyway, there we go.

29:42Katty Kay:Totally the ant and the great cop was always knocking on the door. Why am I still working? But just hear me out for a second. You got the guy makes the money or the woman makes the money and now the government's saying, well, you're a saver, you're a very good investor, now we're going to take the money from you. And they start out with saying, well, we're only going to do it to the billionaires. Okay. But then it's creeping, right? It's like the pay to tear tax, we're only going to do it for the 5 million, the second home of the 5 million, then it's going to creep down. Or inflation is going to push those smaller homes up.

30:12Katty Kay:You see what I mean? And so to me, the Americans don't like it, stupid, and it's going to cost them the election.

30:19Anthony Scaramucci:There is a huge debate going on, clearly, that we have spoken about on the program in the Democratic Party. And I have always maintained that America does not have a socialist bent, as Joe Scarborough said, but I actually think maybe we're seeing a shift and we are seeing younger Americans. Look, in those same polls, only 22 % of people under 30 believe that the American dream still holds for them. There is this big generational shift happening of disappointment in the country around all of the things that we've spoken about, housing being too high, jobs not being available, insecurity about AI, and they are saying the Democrats have not delivered that system of playing by the rules.

31:01Anthony Scaramucci:Even if you tax people at 50%, it hasn't delivered for me. And I think you're seeing that backlash happen around the country. It's going to be very interesting to see how it plays out and to see actually whether America is, and particularly younger Americans, are having a moment where socialism or something that looks more like socialism, even if it's hard to define, is going to make an appearance in this country, having not done so for 250 years.

31:27Katty Kay:Yeah, I think it's just dangerous. And I think they fixed these things before. Go look at what the two Roosevelt's did. You can create a bedrock of the middle class and some safety nets. You can break up some of the trusts. You can tell people, hey, I'm sorry, you can't have two and a half percent of the GDP of the country as your net worth, okay? Because we know that that forces out competition. The reason why the Medicis adopted monopoly laws and even the government of England adopted monopoly laws is because what monopolies do is they control price and then they reduce competition and then they sit on top of innovation.

32:10Katty Kay:Caddy, when AT &T was broken up in the mid 80s by Judge Harold Green with the support of Ronald Reagan, it was the largest monopoly in the history of the country. The great irony is that they were sitting on all the technology that led to these big mag seven companies like Netflix and Facebook and all this internet interactivity. They were sitting on the stuff. They didn't want it because they were charging people$4 a minute for long distance phone calls. Why did they need to do any of that? We're doing that again right now and these guys are paying the government to keep them from getting broken up.

32:50It's just stupid.

32:52Katty Kay:And doing it the way Gavin wants to do it is going to just piss off the average American. People are going to look around and say, wait a minute, I want unlimited upside in this country. My grandmother got here, my grandfather got here, willing to work with uncapped upside, Gavin, knock it off.

33:10Anthony Scaramucci:I was thinking of you last week, as I often do. And I was having a conversation with John Meacham, the famous presidential historian. And he said this very interesting line, and he said that no republic has survived in history without a middle class. And I think when we look at that Pew data about the shrinking middle class in America and the levels of dissatisfaction, what Meacham is saying isn't just a soundbite, but it's actually the stakes. It's the stakes of all of that Pew data that this is going to be a real problem for America. So my question for you is if Meacham is right, is this a structural warning for the country going forward?

33:54Anthony Scaramucci:Is this experiment that America has done for 250 years survivable? Can it beat the odds of what Meacham is saying has been true of history? Because I don't see this middle class. I don't see how this middle class grows with politicians acting the way they are at the moment on either side.

34:11Katty Kay:It's such a great question. And obviously, none of us know the answer, but we did survive a revolution. We did survive a civil war. We survived the Great Depression and two global wars. Ancillary, we survived Watergate and the tension around departing a president. Vietnam, we've survived political assassinations. uh we survived 9 11 several financial crises 1907 1929 2008 so yes i think we can survive the question is what do you want to do for the people because when you interview the cartel and let me tell you who the cartel is those those are that's a duopoly it's not a monopoly see a duopoly doesn't want to break up the monopolies but the duopoly are the republicans and the Democrats.

35:04Katty Kay:They're the demo publicans. They're the republicrats. It is a ruling class in the society that is generally indifferent to the plight of the average American. They'll pay lip service to it, but they offer no policy solutions. So to me, I believe, and maybe I'm wrong in believing this, but I'll tell you what I believe. I believe there's going to be a younger crop of politicians that come in that are more data dependent, that are less ideological than the AOCs or the Mondonis or even the J.D. Vances. And they're going to say, guys, this is what could work for everybody. All right. This is the system that could work.

35:46Katty Kay:We've got to end Citizens United. You've got to knock off the gerrymandering or at least limit it, make it more structured and codified. You got to stop an American president from taking$20 billion, which is a conflict of interest, a gross conflict of interest. You got to create a more independent department of justice so it doesn't become the family law firm of whoever the next American president is. If you do these things, the people will think that the system is actually fairer and more merit-based. And then, Caddy, you got to give the working poor earned income tax credits so that they have enough disposable income without the additional burden of taxation.

36:33Katty Kay:So those are things you could do that could fix the country. Meacham's right. If you just stay on this course, forget about it. We're like Thelma and Louise. We're going to run right over the cliff.

36:43Anthony Scaramucci:Great scene, by the way. I have questions about where those politicians are because I'm not hearing them. I think we may be a cycle or two away from that because I think the Democrats are going to go through a cycle of nominating candidates who are on the left of the political structure. And it's not even just that they're on the left of the spectrum. They are in a kind of blow the house up. We've tried everything else. We're going to just burn it all down, mixing my metaphors there, but we're going to burn it all down. And they're in a kind of market mood. I'm up here in Maine. There are platinum signs everywhere.

37:19Anthony Scaramucci:And I've been going through working class neighborhoods. I have been going through more affluent neighborhoods. There are platinum signs everywhere. And he is a blow it up guy. He's not necessarily an economics policy want guy. I haven't really heard much in the way of economics policy wonkery from him. So I think they're a little way away from that. But I also think there's something else that is happening here because I actually look at those Pew numbers and went over them like you did. and particularly the numbers on the American dream, they're not really about economics. They're about tribalism.

37:52Anthony Scaramucci:People are looking at exactly the same sets of data and taking very different conclusions. So you've actually got 57 % of Republicans believing the dream holds true, but only 17 % of Democrats. That's a 40 point gap based on the same facts. And I think it's that kind of us and them-ism. Maybe Republicans are thinking, well, the American dream is alive because it's still happening for me and Democrats are thinking it's dead because it's stopped happening for migrants and poor people and people of color and they've gone to identity politics. But I think that division in the country around you're either on my team or you're on their team and my team is not necessary.

38:36Anthony Scaramucci:It's about fighting the other team rather than proposing solutions that will make you, the country better. And I think that's, that and the algorithms, when people go back to history and they did this around the time of the killing of Charlie Kirk, the thing I would point to that's different, and I'm holding up my phone here, guys, is this. And I don't know that we are strong enough to beat those algorithms that have a vested interest in dividing us. And you're seeing those divisions in almost every statistic in America that reflects how people feel about the country.

39:06Katty Kay:I'm gonna take the over. I think you're right. and I think that in the average scenario, in the average country, that's the trajectory. But I'm going to take the over because I've seen this happen and I've seen this happen in American history. I've also seen it happen in companies. I'll give you an example. My company should have been dead four times, Skybridge, due to various calamities. And what we did was we innovated or we switched plans or we built a conference business or we moved into some other area of the wall street you know product line i i think that we are and again i could be wrong i think we are at a crisis moment where there's some very very smart people getting together saying whoa we can't let this happen and there are even billionaires saying wait a minute Maybe Henry Ford was right.

39:59Katty Kay:Maybe I got to pay these people more. And maybe I got to elect some politicians that are market-based politicians. They're going to allow me to keep what I've made, but they're going to come up with solutions to help other people feel better about themselves. Because this Mondani, let's wreck it. Let's take a wrecking ball into it, smash it. It never ends well.

40:18Anthony Scaramucci:You were very up on Mondani the other day, Anthony. What happened?

40:22Katty Kay:Listen, I get a lot of criticism, by the way, from my elder New Yorkers listening to our broadcast. I like Mondani. He jumped into a swimming pool the other day with his full suit on. This kid gets politics and this kid has the best smile since Barack Obama in American politics. And this kid understands something that other politicians should listen to. He understands the politics of joy. He's using joy as a political currency. And so he's creating a lot of popularity. It's the policies that thankfully so far he's been restrained on, okay, are the things that I'm happy about. Because let me tell you something, Caddy.

41:05Katty Kay:If he invokes those policies in the city, he'll finish the city. Now, he just put a rent, his rent stabilization board went in for an increase of zero. Okay, but let me ask you a question. What about the property taxes, guys? Are the property taxes not going to get increased either? Also going to be zero, yeah. Oh, no, they're not going to be zero. Okay, so now what's the landlord going to do? The landlord's going to save money on the boiler. He's going to let the paint chip in the apartment. He's going to skip a trash removal. Guys, it's not market-based. What you're talking about, okay, well, the landlord's rich.

41:43Katty Kay:He owns the building, so let's let the building guy pay. That's not how it works. Because you have to deal with the animals. What did Cain say? You have to deal with the animal spirits of the human being and you got to get the policies so that they're conjoined with those, but they can restrain those, but they can't destroy those. And so, yeah, Mondani to me is a brilliant politician. I just wish he had more common sense policies that I know would work for the working class. Again, study Teddy Roosevelt, study Franklin Roosevelt. These guys got it. Even Reagan, Caddy, okay, even Reagan, who is supposedly Mr.

42:26Katty Kay:Right Wing, in 1982, he put through two tax increases.

42:31Anthony Scaramucci:Yeah. And he put a commission together with Alan Greenspan to stop the bleeding out of Social Security.

42:39Katty Kay:Remember the Social Security Commission?

42:41Anthony Scaramucci:I have to ask you about another politician who has mastered the art of joy. Your favorite vice president, J.D. Vance, who is out there. It was a little birthday gift for everybody. He's out rehabilitating Nixon's image. He was at the Nixon Library this week and he said that Nixon's legacy is enjoying a bit of a renaissance. There is actually some truth in that. You've got foreign policy experts who look at the way Nixon handled China, for example, and actually some conservatives who are saying, well, at least Nixon was a real conservative around policies, unlike what we have in the White House at the moment.

43:22Anthony Scaramucci:But then he went on to say that if Watergate had happened, it would be a nothing burger, a 12 hour news story. And he has drawn the parallel between himself calling the deep state takedown of Nixon not all that different from what he said has happened to Donald Trump. Why is the vice president out there pre-shrinking Watergate at the moment? And I think that's what he's doing. I think he's trying to make Trump's scandals look smaller by comparison. Is he kind of just talking to an audience of one and trying to tell Donald Trump, don't worry, corruption doesn't matter? What's going on here? Is this a kind of Nixon rehab strategy?

44:01Anthony Scaramucci:Is it confidence or is it not confidence?

44:04Katty Kay:Okay, such a great question, but I'm going to give you a personal story here. Okay, so I'm going to take you back to the Trump campaign and Trump talking about Nixon. So now we're flying around and Trump would be saying, I like Richard Nixon. Roger Stone liked Richard Nixon, but Richard Nixon was a fall guy. Richard Nixon wasn't tough enough. Richard Nixon needed to ride out the storm and he needed to threaten all those senators that were threatening him. And he needed to browbeat these people into submission and to stay in office no matter what. And so Trump has said that, and that is right in the vein of, you know, where's my Roy Cohn, Caddy Kay?

44:46Katty Kay:If you go to people that have worked for Donald Trump and they have spent at least two hours with him, they have listened to one stream of consciousness monologue about Richard Nixon, that what he did wasn't that big of a deal. So when I hear Vance saying it, I'm like, oh, he's just channeling that stream of consciousness monologue that Trump has been spouting for the last 25 years. but there's something else going on with Vance that I think is also important. He went into certain territory and faced the music. Okay. So he went on the Bill Maher show. I watched the nine minute interview and people can dislike me for this.

45:29Katty Kay:I thought he did well in the interview. I don't like Vance. I don't want him to become the president, but he went on the interview. AOC invited on Bill Maher, won't go on. Kamala Harris invited on Bill Maher, won't go on. I can name a lot of liberal politicians, won't go on. Okay. But he went on and he was getting blistered by Bill Maher and he faced the music. And so, don't underestimate that. Okay. Trump did that. Trump, he doesn't do it anymore. But he used to.

46:00Anthony Scaramucci:16, he was showing up.

46:02Katty Kay:He went everywhere. Exactly. So, went everywhere. So, to me, another big message, and this is something we couldn't get Vice President Harris to do, go face the music. She went on Fox News once. She should have went on Fox News 30 times, once every day for the last 30 days of the campaign, but she wouldn't do it. And by the way, when you do that, you soften people up, Caddy. You open the minds of independence.

46:29Anthony Scaramucci:I mean, I don't know that going for a Republican Vice President to go to the Nixon Library is not quite the same as going on the Bill

46:34Katty Kay:marshal obviously no no no he was in friendly territory there yeah and i think he is trying

46:40Anthony Scaramucci:to do something specific which is he sees post midterms worth if the democrats win we are going to have a slew of investigations into corruption around the trump family and around the trump white house trump can survive a corruption story i mean he'll pardon himself anyway he'll pardon jd vance anyway but i think the question is whether vance can survive being the guy who says corruption doesn't matter, which is what he went and said effectively. The message he was making in the Nixon Library was, Watergate, no big deal, 24-hour news story, guys, corruption doesn't really matter. Well, ask Victor Orban how that worked out because actually quite a lot of voters, I suspect, particularly if we have a post-mid-term two years with lots of these investigations and everything that we have been talking about, about the middle class in America, people might start to think that corruption does matter.

47:33Anthony Scaramucci:And I think J.D. Vance went and said all of that at the Nixon Library because he realizes if he's going to run, he's going to have to somehow find a way to answer the corruption stuff.

47:43Katty Kay:Listen, I think you're making really good points. I just see this guy in a huge identity crisis. I read both of his books and listening to his interviews. He wants to be a good guy, but his ambition is overwhelming. of control ability to be a good guy you see what i mean and that that makes him to me very dangerous

48:05Anthony Scaramucci:that's why we're going to do a series on him guys for our founding members um you can listen to that it's coming out in a few weeks time we will be back for our founding members later on in the week with our questions and answers we're going to be talking about voting rights and what the administration in particular is trying to do to suppress voting rights ahead of the midterm elections you can listen to that by becoming a founding member join us at the rest is politics US.com. But for now, happy birthday, America.

48:32Katty Kay:We'll see you guys later on in the week.