Hour 1: Top 5 Things that would shock Rich if they Happen in the 2026 NFL Season, The Ringer NFL Insider Tom Pelissero

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20:22Rich Eisen:The Rich Eisen Show Podcast.

20:25Tom Pelissero:In terms of swelling, it seems like he's in a good place to play in this game as well. I know there's been a long list of injuries. We talked about it getting ready for the Netflix broadcast of there's like 13 49ers and only three Rams at this time, which if you go by historical standards, shouldn't surprise anybody. But outside of Ricky Pearsall, none of these seem like long term things for the 49ers. And they just have to hope that it stays that way.

20:48Rich Eisen:Our radio audience is rejoined. As you know how this works here, Tom, being a frequent guest host here on this program. Our radio audience has rejoined the voice of our dear friend Tom Pellicero back here on the Rich Eisen Show. in advance of the NFL Netflix opener coming up next Thursday night in Melbourne. It's the Rams and the 49ers kicking off at 5.30, 8.35 p.m. Eastern American time. Tommy P here on the program. Also now of the ringer. Let's talk about Aaron Donald. Is he going to be, listen, you know how we've been playing. Is he back yet? Is he back yet? Is he back yet? He finally comes back and then McVay's asked a question about Donald's health And he's like, yeah, I mean, we'll see if he goes to Australia and plays.

21:35Rich Eisen:And are we going to see him next Thursday night, Tom?

21:38Tom Pelissero:They haven't finalized anything on that front for a guy who's missed this much time like Aaron Donalds has. You would assume that they are going to err on the side of caution, especially because the Rams, unlike the 49ers, already made the trip. The Rams are flying in and basically playing the same day with the way that this thing works with the international date line. They're taking off, it sounds like, on Wednesday, which means they will get in sometime on Thursday. The game is Friday morning in Melbourne time, which, by the way, Melbourne is the preferred pronunciation. Had a long chat with the local civic leaders there about that piece of this thing.

22:14Tom Pelissero:But for Aaron Donald, you know, it's going to be about a ramp-up process. There's very little precedent for a player missing out on multiple seasons, you know, retiring and being away and coming back and playing. And Deion Sanders is the only pro football Hall of Famer since World War II to do this. And so the target for Donald is probably a couple dozen plays whenever he makes his debut, whether that's week one or week two. They're going to emphasize third downs and pass for situations in two minutes and try to keep him fresh over the long haul here. You'll see him in the biggest moments and they'll challenge everybody else to figure out how they're going to deal with Aaron Donald.

22:47Tom Pelissero:And, you know, probably for the first time in Aaron Donald's entire career, offensive coordinators might be looking and going, And we've got to deal with Miles Garrett and Kobe Turner and Braden Fisk and Byron Young. Let's single the old guy until he makes us do otherwise. Aaron Donald's never seen that before, and he might get his opportunity.

23:04Rich Eisen:Okay, Tom Pelissero here on the Rich Eisen Show. It's Melbourne. I don't want to piss off the – did you say the civic leaders? You met with civic leaders? I know.

23:17Tom Pelissero:It was like the Chamber of Commerce. We got a nice presentation. Really? For like an hour there. I mean, this is you sat through.

23:23Rich Eisen:Hold on a minute. You sat through a Melbourne Chamber of Commerce.

23:26Tom Pelissero:I learned a lot about the first peoples of Australia, languages, the traditions. You know, the Melbourne cricket ground where this is being played is like one hundred and seven, one hundred seventy years old. It holds over one hundred thousand people. And crucially, alcohol sales sources say begin at six thirty a.m. local time before the ten thirty a.m. local kick. So our set for Netflix, which is going to be outside, at least for the first couple of hours, our pregame show starts at 830 a.m. local time, which is 630 Eastern, 330 Pacific. I'm getting all this stuff down as we go. That's going to be right out there with the crowd.

24:07Tom Pelissero:So Clay Matthews, Nick Foles, our buddy Michael Irvin is back. Got to hang out with Irv last week at the Netflix festivities and then El Duncan. They're going to be in there with the 100 ,000 Aussies who have all perhaps begun enjoying their day. So it should be a scene, man. I'm hoping I have requested to do at least one hit outside in the crowd just because I want to experience everything that Melbourne and this event have to offer.

24:33Rich Eisen:That is, again, next week after the Seahawks and the Patriots kickoff to begin with. let's use that as another kickoff to the annual conversation as to who's getting a contract in the last seconds when before it strikes midnight and who's not christian gonzalez what do you have for

24:51Tom Pelissero:me on the patriots robert craft has said and i'm told that it's absolutely true that they've offered to make christian gonzalez the highest paid corner in the nfl and this is not a recent development rich this has been the case for six months and there have been other deals that have gotten done and the offer has been adjusted. Christian Gonzalez right now is not taking it. He's got the same agent that did Devin Witherspoon's deal in Seattle. That one also took a lot longer than people thought. Are they going to get to a point where, you know, come the teams fly into Seattle on Monday? Is it Monday morning?

25:26Tom Pelissero:It's like, all right, this is the best available deal. I'll just take it. Does he continue to push it? He did return to practice a week or so ago from everything I've been told. He looks great on the practice field. His press conferences convey a level of frustration. But again, he's been offered to be the highest paid corner. And this doesn't sound like it's a funny money type of deal. He's got a decision to make on when is enough enough, which if I'm Gonzalez and I'm in a situation where I'm really under team control for the next four years, Rich, because you enter year four, then the option year, then two franchise takes.

25:55Tom Pelissero:It's not like you're going to be able to move the market that much. I think it gets done. But I also thought that it was going to get done over the past several weeks. That hasn't happened yet. So we'll see exactly where it lands.

26:05Rich Eisen:Okay. C.J. Stroud, contract or deal or no deal? I feel like Howie Mandela was here last Friday. What do you got for me?

26:13Tom Pelissero:They've continued to talk. They've not been entirely on the same page. Those quarterback deals are difficult because of the way that the market may well explode in 2027. If you're C.J. Stroud and you're being offered a deal based on the breadth of your three years, including the way last season finished, and we all saw the playoff game, which was just a complete mess for him. It wasn't all bad for C.J. Stroud last season, but he may be thinking, I'll just come back and play this thing out and the market will move such that whatever I'm getting offered now, it's going to be a significant percentage increase next year.

26:48Tom Pelissero:If you're an agent, you're looking at this and you're talking percentage of the cap and where the money should be, it may be a$70 million a year market next year. Where does C.J. Stroud fall into that? We'll see, but with Caleb Williams and Jane Daniels and Drake May and Bo Nix all up, Lamar Jackson still hasn't signed a contract. Baker Mayfield hasn't signed a contract. For Stroud, it certainly has sounded for months, Rich, like he is willing, if he needs to, to go and play this thing out. Nothing's over. It's not as simple as sometimes people say, like, turn down a deal. No, it's a negotiation.

27:19Tom Pelissero:You're going back and forth. They're just not there yet. And so he may be in a situation, barring a significant move here, where he ends up playing this thing out.

27:27Rich Eisen:So why are they not on the same page? They don't believe in him to give him the market deal? I mean, let's just call it what it is. I mean, the kid has gotten them in the divisional round, along with the defense. It's a team game, I get it, three years in a row. But then there have been just moments in some of these games where you're just like, where did that play come from? And they're hedging a little bit here, Tom?

27:51Tom Pelissero:Well, it's also the market dynamics, Rich. And you certainly can say, all right, if they think Stroud is going to have a great year, just pay what it takes to get the deal done now just just have it in place because the market is going to move you know the flip side of that argument is you don't want to end up if you're not 100 sold that we should pay this guy at the top of the market and then the play doesn't take that spike and now you're in the position of a miami or an arizona this past year where you're having to eat money to move on from a player they're not in that state right now with cj stroud they wouldn't make him an offer at all if they didn't want him to be the starting quarterback of the team.

28:27Tom Pelissero:But, you know, it's the same thing with guys like Bryce Young. It's like, what is the proper number? A lot of those deals right now are in the 50s. But if you're in the 50s now, well, next year, that same deal to rank the same workplace around the quarterbacks, you might be in the mid-60s. That's part of the dynamic here right now. We certainly understand where, you know, a team would look at the body of work and just say, all right, we don't want to pay above what Mahomes is getting or above what even Dak Prescott is getting. You know, what is the correct number. That's what it is. It's not, I don't think anything particularly unusual.

29:00Tom Pelissero:The only thing that is unusual is the number of teams that aren't committed to a quarterback for 2027, either because that guy's on a one-year deal, he's not under contract, he hasn't signed an extension. It is going to be quarterback chaos in the offseason of 2027, and that can be good for the player if they're willing to have that level of risk tolerance and say, I'm going to

29:21Rich Eisen:take my shot here our buddy tom pelissero here on the rich eisen show when do the packers expect to see josh jacobs tom i asked it that way because again the commissioner's exempt list you never know how long you're on it when you get off it all of that stuff what are the packers

29:42Tom Pelissero:level of expectation here they do not know and that is the honest truth um they were hopeful that when Josh Jacobs faced reduced charges, was actually formally charged with two misdemeanors, the felony charge was not pursued, two other charges were not pursued, they were hopeful that that was going to mean Josh Jacobs was going to be on the field. All this legal matter played out. Obviously, the league decided to protect themselves, for lack of a better term, knowing that in the police report, it says that there is a tape that exists of the incident and the fallout that would happen if that tape were to come out and if it were to show something more significant than what the charges would indicate, they decided to put Josh Jacobs on the shelf.

30:23Tom Pelissero:Now, this creates an environment, Rich, where his next hearing isn't until mid-November. What no one should want, the league, the union, anybody else, is a player being forced to, for instance, take a plea deal when they feel like they're not guilty of a crime just to get themselves back onto the field. We have seen different situations with like a Drew Peppers where his legal situation was not resolved and was still reinstated from the commissioner's exemplus. The best way to say it, Rich, is every situation is different. Every case is different. There's no two things that are exactly alike. But it is an extremely fluid situation.

30:58Tom Pelissero:And right now, I would anticipate for the foreseeable future, it is going to be a committee backfield with Marshawn Lloyd, Chris Brooks, and Caleb Johnson, who just got there a few days ago. That's what the Packers are going to be rolling in to week one in Minnesota with.

31:12Rich Eisen:What are you hearing, Tom Pelissero, about the Patrick Mahomes we're going to get? Week one, Monday Night Football, Broncos, Chiefs. Who are we going to see? Are we going to see the Mahomes we're used to seeing? What do you think? What are you hearing?

31:29Tom Pelissero:At this point, Andy Reid has not even confirmed that Patrick Mahomes is starting in week one. Let's move off of that one. All signs are pointing toward Patrick Mahomes being out there. This is a significant injury, Rich. I mean, an ACL-LCL, that's what Robert Griffin III had. That's what Carson Wentz had. There's some other instances. These are potentially longer-term injuries. One of the things that's unique with Mahomes is he's one of the only guys in recent memory that got his ACL reconstructed the night the injury happened. It was hours after the game. Normally, you have to wait for swelling to go down.

32:06Tom Pelissero:You have to, you know, it could be a week. It could be a month. Mahomes got it that night, which then set the clock moving. in a nine-month injury. It's basically exactly nine months come next Monday night when they are set to play the Broncos. We also know Mahomes is a guy who has been the proverbial fast healer. He had that gruesome dislocated kneecap and missed like one game. He's just always had an ability. He had the ankles one year when they went to the Super Bowl, somehow played through that. He's just always had this ability to push through it. I would certainly anticipate that they are going to exercise caution as they're bringing him along.

32:38Tom Pelissero:But if you look at the workload he had in camp, He's been taking essentially all the first team reps. He has looked from the people on the scene, like Patrick Mahomes. I believe that they'll be careful with some things maybe in terms of exposing him in certain areas. But if he's on the field, he's out there, not because they think he's 85 percent. No, he's he's all the way back, even if there's some things in terms of rust and maybe some calls they won't make while he gets to see Alexander.

33:03Rich Eisen:All right, Tom, a few minutes I have left with you, sir. you know i always ask you about what the people you talk to are thinking and because you know you're at the you're at the cross section of uh what the chatter street and rumor avenue so the people that you talk to say look out for this team what is the predominant team that there like nobody's talking look out for it look out I think that I think everybody well let me

33:37Tom Pelissero:start with this this is a team that everyone's talking about but I would say there's a lot of people in the league who in their various ways express some level of skepticism about the Rams kind of a prove it like are they actually gonna be able to stop the run are all these older players going to hold up I think inevitably when you have these kind of dream team scenarios there's other teams that kind of bristle like you know even you said Nick Game and Worry the Seahawks safety who after Donald came back, he posted something on social media that was along the lines of, all this for us? In other words, we're the Super Bowl champs.

34:08Tom Pelissero:We won the division. We were the one seed, and yet it's the Rams that are plus 500 to win the Super Bowl. Nobody's talking about Seattle right now. That might be one of the teams. I think the Seahawks, Rich, have a potential to be better this season. I know they lost Kenneth Walker III, who was the MVP of the Super Bowl, a huge piece of their playoff run. They had some other guys like Kobe Bryant who went to Chicago. He's going to be out for a good chunk of the season but should be back. um toward the end uh boy a mafe got a big deal in cincinnati but you know mike mcdonald knows what he's doing on defense they're going to be one of the best defenses in the nfl year in and year out sam darnold's healthier than he was during the super bowl run a bunch of these young players that they really like are going to be a step further i think that seattle isn't being talked about enough even though contextually i understand why and then there are some other teams that i think nobody you know we had a segment on the ringer nfl show yesterday which was you know, predicting the divisions.

35:02Tom Pelissero:Like, nobody's talking about Minnesota as even being a factor. It's like everyone's talking it's a three-team race with the Packers and the Lions and the Bears. Vikings went 9-8 last year where they had a mess in the quarterback's room the entire season. I mean, they beat the Lions on Christmas Day with Max Brosmer, an undrafted rookie, throwing for like 52 yards. They've still got Brian Flores coordinating that defense. They're still going to challenge you every week. I mean, you don't need Kyler Murray to be a top-five quarterback to think that the Vikings have the possibility of being pretty good.

35:32Tom Pelissero:They made a lot of changes. I think that they're a team that's going to be in the mix. And then there's some other teams that, you know, when I look at like the win-loss over-unders, which now I'm allowed to do a little bit more, Richie, I still won't give gambling advice. Me too, Tom. Me too. When the commanders are, you know, five and a half is their over-under wins, and I'm like, they were in the NFC Championship game 18 months ago. Jaden, last year was a disaster. all the injuries they bet on a bunch they doubled down on the older players those guys got hurt or they declined jay daniels is back yes he's adjusting to a new offense it's not the cliff kingsbury area derivative offense anymore david blouse an unproven first time coordinator derante jones the defensive coordinator is a first timer but i just wouldn't be surprised in a division that seems pretty wide open i know we talk a ton about the eagles and the cowboys but like the commanders I just don't see being like a four-win type of team.

36:24Tom Pelissero:If they are, there's going to be major changes in Washington. But I could see them coming out and Jaden finally being healthy again and having his receivers and having time on task with McLaurin this year, who was a hold-in all last year, having time with Stephon Diggs, who can still play. I just wouldn't be surprised if we're talking in the opening weeks of the season like, oh, yeah, Jaden Daniels is a pretty good quarterback, and maybe this Washington team we've overlooked the entire offseason.

36:48Rich Eisen:I love it, Tom, but let's cycle back to the first one because to me that is the undercurrent of the whole season where 31 teams are like the Rams aren't going to just walk through. You don't walk through. You don't just roll out the footballs. We'll show them. They're not all that. Yada, yada, yada. I totally understand Nicky Memorial or anyone with Seattle on their chest or anybody that roots for the Seahawks. should feel that way and have a legitimate reason and case to say we're still better. I'm wondering if the rest are wish casting, man, for real. Like, you know, that said, though, I don't put it past anybody.

37:35Rich Eisen:And I dig it. I dig it. There's chips on shoulders everywhere. Dan Campbell was kind of the first one to talk about it. And that's no surprise. Like, oh, I guess we should just stop playing. I love it. I can't wait for it. It's so great, Tom.

37:50Tom Pelissero:It's very rare that you have a team that is by far the favorite like this, much less a team that didn't even win their division last year. That's being talked about in that regard. And in LA, I mean, the Rams are the perfect LA team where whether they're building it up or tearing it down, they're always interesting. They're always making big moves and you go all the way back to trading for Trent McDuffie with the first round pick silent Jalen, Jalen Watson to a huge deal, bringing in Miles Garrett, bringing back Aaron Donald. You know, the only thing they didn't do this year that was, you know, not all in for 2026 was drafting Ty Simpson in the first round.

38:26Tom Pelissero:But part of the logic of that is, depending on how this goes, we might be into a reset phase. And by the way, we're never with this group going to have a high enough draft pick to get any of these quarterbacks. So let's take the guy now that we think a year or two down the line could be really, really good. The only concern you would have, and this is just the percentages over the course of time is how many older players they have on the roster. Matthew Stafford, I mean, Sean McFace talked about it. They had doubts that Stafford was going to play at all last season because of how bad his back was in camp.

38:58Tom Pelissero:He obviously came out and he won the NFL MVP, and there's no reason to think it's going to be an issue again. But a 40-year-old quarterback who, granted, he's one of the toughest guys we've ever seen in terms of playing through injuries, but guys get banged up. Aaron Donald's coming back, hasn't played in two years, and he's 36. Miles Garrett's on the other side of 30. Devontae Adams is getting toward the end. They've got a bunch of really good young players, too. I'm taking nothing away from the Pukas and Kyron Williams and Kobe Turner, who is an underrated player, Byron Young. I mean, they've got a bunch of guys they've got to look into extending after this season as well.

39:30Tom Pelissero:But when you have some of your crucial players who are a little bit older, it does create that environment where if anybody declines, if anybody gets banged up, the expectations can change really quickly. On the flip side of it, by the way, Rich, I also think that it is very unique that when you look at those Super Bowl odds and all the teams that are in the AFC mix, in essence, made either huge changes after last season or worked good last season. Like the top teams, I believe, are the Bills, the Ravens and the Chiefs. Two of those teams fired their head coaches after last season and the Chiefs went 6-11.

40:04Tom Pelissero:I think that's part of the fun of this season is, yes, exactly what you're saying. you've got the team that everybody's trying to take down in the Rams and whether you agree or not on paper Vegas odds they're the team to beat in the NFC but in AFC where year after year it was well it's the Chiefs until it's not it's the Chiefs until it's not the AFC feels completely wide open outside of a couple of teams like it's kind of anybody's game I think that that makes it really fun as we go into this and even when we were you know the guys were making their their playoff predictions yesterday no matter how you slice it afc or nfc you got a handful of teams you're like wait i don't have room for them i don't have them in the playoffs like it's it's going to be a really fun and i think wide open season all kicking off wednesday night in seattle and then thursday night which is really friday morning netflix with us in melbourne australia 6 30 eastern eight pregame 8 30 eastern kick i'm gonna get this down in my head i'm gonna be waking up i'm gonna be doing the game over breakfast it'll be great man it'll be great and for those

41:04Rich Eisen:on netflix who are hiding on the zoom right now hiding their cameras on the zoom this is how long tom and i usually talk um and i do look forward already to the next time i'm so happy for you bud i'm so happy appreciate it it's great to see your smiling face up there um and and say hi to the melbourne chamber of commerce for me okay i will i'm hoping to since you're such a already woven into the community.

41:27Tom Pelissero:I want to participate in a smoke ceremony, and I want to hold a koala. I think one of those two things will happen. I need to work on the koala. Don't know about the smoke

41:37Rich Eisen:ceremony? I don't know. Does Netflix test? I have no idea. Maybe we'll find that out. They got TJ Plus down there? I don't know if that's what he's referring to.

41:44Tom Pelissero:All I know is it was a big thing. It was a huge part of the presentation. I want the smoke ceremony. Ladies and gentlemen, Tom Pellicero.

41:51Rich Eisen:I hope to speak to you very soon. Absolutely. Safe journey. That's Tom Pellicero, part of Netflix's coverage as well as The Ringer as well. We're back here on Disney Plus in a moment.

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43:59Rich Eisen:Get started by posting a free job at LinkedIn.com slash Eisen. By the way, not surprising to hear Tom say the Rams are flying in two days before the game in Australia. He said basically they're taking off Wednesday landing Thursday. And then they're going to get some rest and they're going to play the game Friday morning. And then they're going to beat it on down the line. Meanwhile, the Niners are already there, he said. Yeah, it's wild that they're both taking basically the opposite approaches. And I'll just counsel this to anybody who's just like, well, what an advantage for the 49ers, right?

44:41Rich Eisen:Last year, Rams, Jaguars, London. Jaguars played the week before. They were already there. Rams flying day before. Beat the crap out of the Jacksonville Jaguars. Like the last team to beat the crap out of the Jaguars all year long. Jaguars came back after London. And take a look at their record after that London game. I think they had a game against your Raiders, Feli, that got real tight for them. They pulled that one out of their Duval and then started waxing the competition, if I'm not mistaken, last year with the Jaguars. So the Rams went ahead and beat the crap out of them. And everybody's like, what a mistake that was.

45:31Rich Eisen:844-204-RICH is the number to dial here on the program um let's go to Jake in Kansas City

45:39Tom Pelissero:what's up Jake what's going on Rich uh appreciate you taking my call uh just had a quick question for you on this uh what's more likely Friday uh it involves your Jets and as a Chiefs fan I'm always watching the receiver market sure you know trying to see who's available and And I'd like to know what you think is more likely, that your Garrett Wilson and Justin Jefferson both finish the season on the Jets and Vikings, or that at least one of them is a dealt before the deadline?

46:13Rich Eisen:Oh, God, neither of them are going anywhere, Jay. Neither of them are going anywhere. What's more likely? It's not even in the planet likely that the Vikings or Jets would be like, eh, things are just not going well here. this year and the future is bleak. Let's just start amassing draft. The Jets, let's put it this way. Justin Jefferson is going nowhere. He should retire in purple. Garrett Wilson, I have no idea what the Jets are going to do anymore. I imagine they are done in the we're trading everybody for future draft choices mode. You'd think so. I think, look it up. They have nine first round draft choices next year, right?

46:51Rich Eisen:Next year? Correct, yeah. A third of the first round is the Jets picking. You know what I mean? Come on now. come on now and they held on to him they sent sauce away who was a player rookie of the year the same year that garrett was the jets have three thank you for the call jake i appreciate it just just so we're accurate no that's what i'm saying they're these the jets are should be out of the business of trading away young stars for future considerations plus they paid him i mean he's he's Paid, and let's just give him a quarterback, man, that he's going to be playing with for the rest of his career.

47:32Rich Eisen:You know, Justin Jefferson thought he had one of them. Now he doesn't. We'll see. Maybe he does again. Yeah, that ain't happening. But it is a what's more likely Friday. We're going to play that coming up here on the Rich Eisen Show. Sean McDermott is our next guest. Thanks for listening to the Rich Eisen Show podcast. You can watch and listen to The Rich Eisen Show live weekdays from noon to 3 Eastern on ESPN Radio, Disney Plus, and on the ESPN app. The Rich Eisen Show, the podcast.

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