AFC Championship Game Burning Questions with Ben Solak!

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1:06Welcome to the Ringer NFL Show. I'm your host, Shiel Kapadia. We are breaking down the championship games over the next two episodes. We'll do the AFC today and the NFC tomorrow. So today we've got Patriots-Broncos. What will Sean Payton's plan be with Jared Stidham? What is the blueprint for an upset? We'll talk about all aspects of the matchup. And then had to finish the show with a story everyone's talking about. What is going on in Buffalo? Just a wild press conference with their owner, Terry Pagula, in the aftermath of them firing Sean McDermott. So my guest today is our old friend, ESPN's Ben Solak.

1:44He's going to join us for the two-parter. Let's take a break. We'll come back with Ben. The Ringer NFL Show is presented by FanDuel FanDuel's got it all Same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live And your way so you can build the bet that fits your play Plus don't miss out on the NFL playoffs all month long Download the FanDuel app or head to FanDuel.com Slash Ringer NFL to get started 21 plus and present in select states Or 18 plus and present in D.C., Kentucky, or Wyoming Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com, call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut.

2:38All right, we are back here with our old pal, ESPN's Ben Solak, Benny Soles. are you ready to talk a little AFC Championship? I am. On the great Netflix platform, I hear the badom in the background. I'm going to be watching this on Netflix the minute it drops. I'm so excited. Okay, there you go. We'll let you know. And you can watch this on Netflix or on Spotify or listen on Spotify. So many ways to get the show. All right, Solak. I think the only way to talk about this game is to try to figure out how the Broncos can pull off the upset with Jared Stidham. That is just the central theme of this game.

3:12So we'll get to the other side of the ball in a minute. But let's start with Denver's offense. And I want to know from you, how should Sean Payton, who I've said before, is feeling this? I mean, if he can win a Super Bowl with Jared Stidham, he's going to be the most insufferable man in America. And probably rightfully so, because that would be... Is there a bar of insufferability that Sean Payton has yet to achieve? There's an upper limit there? This might be the only one. So what are your expectations for Sean Payton? His game plan with Jared Stidham, how do you think he approaches this thing?

3:44So I actually think that the system that they run with Bo Nix is one that fairly takes a lot of the operation out from the quarterback just in terms of there's a lot of screens and RPOs and just the sort of stuff that's very quarterback-friendly, play action, the design rollout game. It's not that it's... It's the same as the Tua conversation. It's not that it's easier means the quarterback's terrible. It's just that the head coach says, I'm very good at this. And so I'll be getting us to a lot of our good spots. And the quarterback just kind of needs to point guard. So a lot of the base offense can, I think, remain the same.

4:11The one thing that you do lose is the quarterback running game. We saw that be a huge part of their approach against the Bills, early drives, especially on late downs to convert. So I do think that your short yardage stuff gets a little bit strained. Stidham will throw a very nice deep ball. Knicks had a great deep ball game against the Bills, but in general has been one of the least accurate deep ball throwers since he entered the league in 24. So I think you could see the field stretch a little bit more, a little bit more shot plays, longer dropbacks in the pocket, a little bit more climb and step up.

4:39because he's a bit bigger and he stands there a little bit longer. But at the same time, you start welcoming pressures and sacks if you go that way. And Bodix is super powerful. The thing that he does best that keeps this offense chugging, he takes no sacks. Since he entered the league, 3.5 % sack rate. It's the lowest of all quarterbacks in football. Stidham over his four starts at 8%, which is a very league average number. And so you can go for longer dropbacks. Use the fact that Stidham, I think, is a little bit more accurate throwing down the field, a little bit bigger of an arm. Use it to your advantage.

5:07but at the same time, like you're going to get a lot more negatives. And I think you really want to avoid negatives in this game, try to make it low scoring, make it, make it murky. And I'm not sure that there'll be enough juice worth to squeeze with like your receivers against the Patriots corners. And so I could see them being a little bit more shot play oriented, but I largely think the offense will operate like X's and O's wise, quite similar to how it does with Knicks. There are just going to be some like more unique changeups, like, you know, your first and 10 flea flickers and your second and seven reverses and the ways you kind of try to get the drop on the Patriots.

5:35So you can manufacture an explosive. No, I could tell by the way you spoke about Bo Nix there, that you are a man who has maybe had a little rollercoaster ride with Bo Nix and then you get Broncos fans. Broncos fans, they've been aggressive with me. They're aggressive with everyone. A rollercoaster ride implies some degrees of ups. I would say I've been mostly just in the tunnel with Bo Nix and with Broncos fans, which when he was out of Oregon, I was like a pro Bo Nix guy. I was like, this is a pretty solid dude. No second round, whatever. Since pretty much start one with Broncos fans, they've not liked my read on the guy.

6:04And that's that. Listen, they're in the AFC Championship game. I'll take my lungs. So I was thinking that this is a win-win for Broncos fans because hear me out here. I think if Jared Stidham plays well and they win, they're in the Super Bowl. That's great. They're not complaining about anything. If Jared Stidham plays horribly, now they can come at everyone who says, well, you know, some version of kind of what you implied there that, you know, Bo Nix has played well, but he's not the thing that drives this Broncos team, drives this offense. So if it looks like, oh my gosh, This offense looks totally lost.

6:35Without Bo Nix, now, all right, they're not in the Super Bowl, but they can say, hey, we got our guy. He is making a difference, and none of you know ball. What do you think about that? I think the Broncos fans, it's a win-win. So if you're sad about the Bo Nix injury, which you have a right to be, think and look at it my way. Good things coming your way on Sunday either way. I think at the end of the 2022 season, Tua Tungabailoa got hurt, and Skyler Thompson played a game for the Miami Dolphins, and they lost that game in the postseason while it got around to the Bills. and the Teddy Bridgewater reps are bad and every single Dolphins fan said, oh, you told me that Tua is just a product of the offense.

7:08That it's all Mike McDaniel. Look, the offense sucks when the backups are in there. And I was like, okay, let's check in with me in two years. And here we are two years later. There is a difference between how good is the quarterback qualitatively, how well is he playing within the offense, and where do I rank this guy among the league quarterbacks. So the thing with Knicks is like, I have never had an issue with what Knicks does for the Broncos offense in terms of execution. A lot of the sack avoidance stuff is huge for how they want to play. He throws really nicely on the move and he creates throws.

7:38He's a quick distributor. He's generally accurate in the short areas. The way what they ask him to do, he's good at doing that. He knows how to play within himself. And he largely doesn't have spiraling fall apart games. Even his bad games, like that Raiders Thursday night game he played, he still did well enough to avoid turnovers, keep the field position battle fine, rely on the defense and win the ball game. So there's that aspect. And then when you widen the scope, because what inevitably ends up happening is this quarterback is successful and he's a young guy. Broncos fans start saying, like, all right, why do you think that Caleb Williams is better than this guy?

8:08Why do you guys rank Justin Herbert above this guy? And that's where you lose me just because we're starting to talk about different quarterbacks in different environments who are being asked for different things. So with Knicks and this game as a referendum, I think there's a lot of worlds where Stidham walks in and it looks 80 % as operable. And that's because Sean Payne's really good at his job. Stidham's a solid quarterback. And because the system is generally kind of QB agnostic. There's also plenty of worlds where Stidham walks in, takes four sacks, throws two picks, and they lose because he's a backup quarterback playing in the AFC Championship game, right?

8:35The book on Knicks will not be written and they'll not be a period in pen at the end of it because of one, maybe two games in the 2025-26 postseason. Yeah, he's got a long way to go. Two years into his career, obviously great drive down the stretch there, great deep ball down the stretch there, and had his team in the NFC Championship year in his second season. NFC, he's switching championships. Yeah, he's NFC. Huge for him. You didn't get that yet? that just broke before the pod started there. All right, Stidham here. So now you are a draft Nick. Do you take offense to that? Or do you like being called that?

9:07No, I don't. Broncos fans have already found a tweet of mine from 2019 where I was like, I don't really like Stidham very much. Don't worry about that. They're already closed-weeding it. Like, oh, he hates Stidham. Guys, relax. All right, that's why we got to sign up. You got to log off more. Touch grass. Get your steps in. I don't even remember sending this tweet and they found it. They're fired up. All right, so I'm curious about Jared Stidham because he has four career starts. I do not grind the preseason film the way some of my colleagues like you might. I was looking at his numbers in those four starts.

9:35There was one that was bad, just like EPA for pass play. There were two that were average. And there was one that was good. And his worst one, it wasn't even, statistically, it wasn't horrible. It was about the 33rd percentile. So what should we know about Jared Stidham, other than what you told us earlier, throws a pretty nice deep ball, sack rate about 8%. What else do we need to know about the way he plays his strengths and weaknesses going into this game? Yeah. So Stedham can spin it. And this has been the joke since his Auburn days when he came out. His Auburn production, his Auburn film wasn't even that great.

10:07And then he was coming out in the draft process. And all coaches and scouts were talking about it. Like, man, you watch this kid throw. Like, your practice is, like, you know, pro day. Man, the ball comes off his hand real clean. And we were all like, yeah. The games aren't good. Like, the games are not going well, guys. He has a goes middle round. He is a really classic backup quarterback mold in the sense that a practice that looks beautiful. He knows where he's supposed to go to the football. He can execute. He throws a gorgeous ball. He's got a nice compact release. He's got the downfield ball.

10:33He's generally accurate. Once the bullets are live, and you see this on the good film and on the bad film the last couple of years, he doesn't operate at the speed you'd like for a quarterback to operate at. He's not debilitatingly late. He's a solid QB2 in the NFL, but he definitely is a tick behind. It lets zone defenders get closer to guys, forces the windows a little bit tighter. He'll miss receivers behind them a little bit because he's late to these throws. And that is significant in the context of the Broncos' offense because so much of what they do successfully, another credit to Knicks, is Knicks will get the ball to the check out fast.

11:03And it allows them to throw these swings and these screens and these tight end delays and actually pick up five and six yards, maybe pick up eight and 10 yards and stay ahead of the stick so reliably. Eventually, we're going to get to like four or five cold shot plays, with some vertical options down the field. Maybe not five attempts, but five cold shot plays. Just didn't get the throw off against this pass rush and also the way that they've been blitzing recently in New England. And when he gets it off, if it's Corwin Sutton against Christian Gonzalez down the field, to me, that leans Patriots, but Sutton can win some of those.

11:32If it's Marvin Mims against Carlton Davis, Mims can separate. Is the ball going to be accurate? Are we going to get a DPI? A lot of this is going to come down to Sean's going to manufacture a few lever spots for Stedham to hold that ball for a little longer and shoot that sucker. And what's going to happen on those plays? That's what happens with all backup quarterbacks. That's the Jacoby Brissett story, right? That's the Joe Flacco story. Just dink, dunk, dink, dunk, stay ahead of the sticks, don't mess up, don't mess up. Okay, we're going for our shot here. Let's go get seven on one play. And to your point, there has been a lot of that with this Broncos offense anyway with Bo Nix where it's layups and three-pointers and hit your shots downfield here.

12:03I was looking at a couple things here with Sean Payton's history and also the way the Broncos have played. So Sean Payton in New Orleans, five and one with Teddy Bridgewater when he had to come in, five and two with Jameis Winston. So 10 and three with Bridgewater and Winston when Breeze was out. Now, there was some other stuff in there. Trevor Simeon, Luke McCown, Ian Book, Mark Brunel. Oh, and Mark Brunel, I don't remember that. Oh, and seven. All right, so that's some of Sean Payton's history there with the backup quarterbacks. And one other thing I was looking up, you were mentioning, all right, Bo Nix hasn't had maybe a bunch of clunkers.

12:38Offensively, I was just looking at when the Broncos have had below average games. And so I looked at it, seven games this year where they've had, the offense has performed at a below average level just when you're looking at EPA per drive. They're 6-1 in those games. So they've had three games that have been below the 20th percentile and they've won all three of those. So it just reaffirms what our eyes have seen, that the defense in a large part has been driving this thing for the Broncos and Bo Nix has made plays late in games and they figured out a way on offense. But the makeup of this team has not been like, We have to be mistake-free, efficient football, down in, down out.

13:18That's just not the way they've played all season long. So if you're a Broncos fan, I think those are some things going in your favor. But then, so like the other side of the ball, you mentioned the Patriots defense. And I think there's still a question like, Patriots defense? Are they good? Are they not good? Are they really good? Are they finding their way? I think they've played maybe their two best games of the season the last two weeks where we look at it and everyone's ripping Justin Herbert and CJ Stroud, and I think that's fair to a large degree. but these were over 90th percentile games for the Patriots offense.

13:47It feels like they're healthier than ever before. It feels like they're playing better than they have for most of this season. Where are you on the scale of like, how legit is this Patriots defense? My whole job, we're 20 weeks in and I'm just like, I don't know, man. Yeah, who knows? This is the sort of question you hope you professionally be able to answer. I definitely think that like, you know, I saw Aaron Schatz of Football Outsiders or of FDN, excuse me, tweet today that like since week 10, And the Patriots defense is better by DVOA than the Broncos defense, right? The Broncos defense has been having a little bit more up and down performances.

14:18And then this Patriots defense, it is easy to fall into the trap of saying the schedule is not good and they've played soft quarterbacks. It's absolutely true. And their numbers are inflated. But you also look at the room and you're just like, all right, wait, like Millen Williams and Christian Barmore are good and have been good. Carlton Davis, Christian Gonzalez, Marcus Jones are good and have been good. Like they have pass rushers, they have man cover players. How long 10, 15 years of the postseason has been defined by can your defense Man up. Can you play guys one-on-one? Can you get after the pass with a four?

14:44They can do both of them. So they have the DNA of the legitimate postseason defense, the Super Bowl defense. They're also, like I said, being more creative. You saw them blitz Justin Herbert a ton. They were pressuring Stroud as well. They like to blitz on these early downs. It helps them with their run fits, which is a big deal because they have these lighter edge rushers and they don't really want to go pound for pound against offensive lines like the Broncos. So I'm confident they're quite a good unit. Now, the difficult reality of the NFL is that you can be the sixth best defensive football if you run into a really good offense, you're just going to get deleted, right?

15:13Like this is an offense-driven league. They certainly are not on the caliber of like the Seahawks or the Texans, where I don't trust them against a functional offense to like suffocate and win the game Anaconda style. Like I don't think they can have like, you know, the Texans defense was amazing against the Patriots. It was the worst game by success rate in Drake May's career that he played against the Texans. Didn't matter because they had 19 drives that started inside the five-yard line. But like, I don't think they can have, you know, I don't think the Patriots defense can have that caliber of a suffocating performance.

15:42That being said, it's back and quarterback. So pressure him, blitz him, show him everything. Let's trip him into some mistakes. So I'm confident they are a good unit. They're good enough to get a few stops on Matthew Stafford and the Rams and Sam Donald and the Seahawks if we get there. Are they dominant enough to kick Jared Stidham and Sean Payton's teeth in and only give up six points? I'm not convinced by that. I think the offense still needs to do enough heavy lifting in this game. So they're a very tricky unit to calibrate to. Yeah, I'm with you. different makeup than the Broncos. I think they've certainly played really well the last two weeks.

16:13I think they're good enough to win a Super Bowl. I don't think they're really going to get lit up, but could there be some give here with Sean Payton and his game plan? I think there could be. All right. Let's take a break. We come back and we talk about the... This episode is brought to you by Hotels.com. Save Your Way is a new feature on Hotels.com and it's as simple as it sounds. When you book a trip as a Hotels.com member, you decide how to use your savings. Take the instant savings now or bank the savings as rewards for later. It's your call only at hotels.com. Save Your Way is available to loyalty members in the US and UK and hotels with member prices.

16:49Other terms apply. See site for details. Other side of the ball. The Ringer NFL show is brought to you by FanDuel. Four teams left, two games, and with a trip to Super Bowl 60 on the line, FanDuel's turning on playoff mode. And right now, all customers get a profit boost pack during the conference championship round. That means you'll find a pack loaded with multiple profit boosts waiting for you in the app. More boosts means more ways to level up your playoff bets. So visit fanduel.com slash NFL and grab your profit boost pack for the NFC and AFC championships. 21 plus and present in select states or 18 plus and present in DC, Kentucky, or Wyoming.

17:31Opt-in required. Bonus issued as non-withdrawable profit boost tokens, restrictions apply, including any token expiration and max wager amount. See terms at sportsbook.fandle.com. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. All right, we are back here on the Ringer NFL show. All right, next question for you. How confident should Broncos fans be that their defense is going to be good enough to keep them in the game? And what is the game plan to do? So now that we've seen the Patriots offense, these last two playoff games have not been great.

18:11It looks like they've got some vulnerabilities. Can the Broncos expose those? I'm very confident they can keep it a game. I'm confident they can keep it close. So long as you're just not getting tons of short fields and you don't know how bad the Stidham turnovers might get. But generally, not terrible short fields. You should be fine. They, I think, are a very good pass rush for Drake May specifically. because when you start to heat up May, as we've seen, firstly, he can be careless with the football. He'll take a lot of sacks. We've seen the ball get on the ground a few times. May also is one of these young quarterbacks, one of these great playmakers, who's like, I've got an extra half second to worry about.

18:45Just hold off a guy with one arm, make a throw with another arm. And that's good when you can beat the first rusher. You can climb up in the pocket, beat an edge rusher. You can escape through the B gap or whatever. But the Broncos rush is just so complimentary. It's so total. Where you have Nick Benito and Jonathan Cooper and Zach Allen and DJ Jones and Malcolm Roach and John Franklin Myers and Andrew Ellis. And they converge on you with such great discipline before Vance Joseph even starts sending guys from the second level. So I'm confident in their ability to get sacks on May and to minimize his escape lanes, minimize the effect of his legs.

19:16Now you're forcing the ball into the air. And are there worlds where Riley Moss gives up four big catches to Kaysha on Booty? Yes, but you also have Sertan, you have Jaquan McMillan, you expect to win enough of those downs to force punts. So I'm confident they can keep it close. the Patriots will just like, you know, death by a thousand paper cuts you, right? When Drake May is like on it and the quick game is firing and they're getting rid of the ball quick because they're worried about the pass rush and they're protecting their line. Drake is unbelievably precise. He's an excellent, excellent processor in a way that he doesn't get nearly enough credit for.

19:47We talked about the running, building the arm. Like when he just wants to beat you with like day one install concept of just throwing to space, you see him like the game's against the bills. He just walks it down the field. It's really fun to watch. And so I do think that there's a strain, right? They're going to die if they face like 70, 80, 90 plays. And that's where your offensive complementary football starts to come in. Don't take sacks. Play the field position game and really try to shorten this game with longer drives. Yeah, it's kind of boring. But the high leverage plays are just so huge here.

20:15You can't really escape them when you look at... It's two man coverage defenses, right? And so it's the sort of thing where it's either a pass per cover or 55-yard completion. That's the nature of how these defenses play a little bit. And the Broncos have done a really good job at limiting those explosive plays, even though they've played that way. So the explosive plays, May, and this Patriots offense, they're the best team in the NFL at producing explosive pass plays. And the Broncos are the best team in the NFL at preventing explosive pass plays, just statistically. So that's going to go a long way here.

20:44And then, yeah, the pass rush. I mean, Drake Mays fumbled, what, six times in these first two playoff games? I think he's lost, what, three? Yeah, well, lost. I mean, there's a randomness to what you lose there. So lack, you know, this is the ball game. I mean, dude, you don't need to tell the Broncos. The Broncos recovered all five fumbles against the Bills or whatever it was. Yeah, so statistically, these have been May's worst two games of the season based on EPA per pass play against the Chargers and then against the Texans. So I'm with you. I think it's going to come down to can the Patriots hit some of those explosive plays and can the Broncos' pass rush control the game?