AFC Wild-Card Round Predictions, Plus Dolphins Fire Mike McDaniel!

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1:43Austin Gayle:Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I am your host, Shiel Kapadia. Today we are talking about the AFC playoff matchups. Bills at Jaguars, Chargers at Patriots, and of course, Monday night Texans at Steelers. What are the headlines or the storylines that are going to come out of those games? We're going to predict them. We'll also talk about the Mike McDaniel firing here at the top of the show. Our guest today is my friend from the Ringer, Austin Gale. Let's take a break. We come back with Austin, talk Mike McDaniel and AFC playoffs. The Ringer NFL Show is presented by FanDuel. FanDuel's got it all.

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3:06Austin Gayle:All right, we are back here on the Ringer NFL show with Austin Gale. We're going to talk about the AFC playoffs, Austin, but before we do that, coach firing, we always got to talk about the coach firing, if there's a coach firing, and we're recording in Mike McDaniel days after the Dolphins season ends. They didn't do it immediately. They had some meetings, according to the reporting, and a certain prominent coach became available. I want to know if you thought that had anything to do with it, but the Miami Dolphins fire Mike McDaniel. So let's start here. What do you think actually is happening in Miami?

3:37Austin Gayle:Is this linked to John Harbaugh becoming available? There's been a lot of reporting that their owner, Stephen Ross, is infatuated with John Harbaugh. Or do you think this is one where they just said, all right, we were on the fence. We thought about it because that does happen. And we decided to move on from Mike McDaniel. I think it has to be a part of the conversation because I don't think you fire Mike McDaniel at this point, you know, belatedly. It kind of feels like if you don't look at the head coaching candidate pool and how it's affected by bringing in John Harbaugh. Then there's all this stuff with like Stephen Ross is like one of the biggest donors in Michigan football history is a big Harbaugh fan.

4:12Like you could see it make a ton of sense for them to kind of want to go get John Harbaugh. But there's also been some reporting today that has come out about how the GM search is more important than even how they're feeling about the head coaching search. And they want to figure that out, too. And if you're Harbaugh, and you're going to probably have your pick of any of the vacancies, any I think a lot of the teams are going to be looking for Harbaugh to come in. I think the GM hire that they do make is going to be a big piece of this, right? So I do think with Mike McDaniel, they felt like it was maybe time to move on.

4:40They're looking for a change of pace in terms of how that locker room is led and how the team is led overall. Yeah, the thing with McDaniel

4:46Austin Gayle:is I think everyone agrees, great offensive coach, or at least very good offensive coach. He's kind of proven himself there. And if you just sat back four years ago and said, here's what his roster is going to be, they're going to go 35 and 33 and go to the playoffs twice. You'd be like, that kind of sounds to me like he probably did a pretty good job. Like it's hard to make the case that another coach would have done so much more with that talent on Miami. I don't believe that to be the case. Now, I do think while he was a great offensive schemer, I'm not sure about him in terms of the other stuff that comes along with being a head coach, the leadership, the culture, the players, the staff.

5:20Austin Gayle:Remember, they let Vic Fangio go, who's now just the reason why the Eagles are winning games over the last two years. So there's that stuff that I'm not sure about. The film grinders, Austin, are just very excited about where is Mike McDaniel going? going to go. And I'll be honest, there are some exciting spots. You know, does he get paired with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens? Does he go to Washington with Jaden Daniels? They let Cliff Kingsbury go. He's got a relationship with Dan Quinn. Mike McDaniel does. The Lions, I thought, would be interesting. They let John Morton go. I mean, he's playing indoors with Jared Goff and that talent.

5:55Austin Gayle:That had to be a little bit excited. What was your most exciting like, oh, this would be really fun if Mike McDaniel went here spot? Baltimore and Washington, because they have, you know, two very athletic quarterbacks, Lamar Jackson, a two-time MVP, Jane Daniels, I think can be that if healthy. And like just seeing the kind of offense Mike McDaniel would create for a quarterback that can move with their feet. It's not what he had in Tua Tungavailoa. And like two things that you mentioned there, I think the biggest dings on Mike McDaniel and his head coaching was his decision to really commit to Tua Tungavailoa and just not being able to make it work with Vic Fangio.

6:26And I think moving forward, like how he makes decisions on the personnel and how he can build a staff are going to be important kind of evaluating pieces to whether he gets another head coaching job. As for an offensive play caller, I think he made everyone better in Miami and kind of broke people's brains. Remember when he initiated the cheap motion and every coach was like, oh my God, I need to add that to my playbook. I still think he has that in his bag. That's where I like Washington. I like Baltimore. I think the other teams that make sense as well, Houston, Philly, I think Tampa Bay, Nick Carter, I think formerly of the Backstreet Boys, he might still be in there.

6:57I don't know, is saying that he's going to go to the Buccaneers. I don't know how much you buy Nick Carter's reporting. Where did you come across this information? When you said Nick Carter, I thought you were going to be like... It's a tweet that's going big right now.

7:06Austin Gayle:It's a tweet? Okay, I thought you were going to be like, offensive line coach, and I'm like, oh man, I haven't heard of this guy. No, it is the Nick Carter that I know. No, Nick Carter is hearing that Mike McDaniel is going to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. I think that's not likely at all. I think Houston is probably one of the destinations that I think is legit, and I think it's a team we're going to talk about soon. The D 'Amico-Ryans pairing, I think they haven't been able to figure out the offense really since C.J. Stroud's rookie season. I think I think Houston would be a very interesting landing spot for him.

7:32Like I said, I like Washington. I like Baltimore. And then Detroit, like you said, Detroit is another one where he comes in. Does he immediately elevate the offense where it was with Ben Johnson, Jared Goff and all that stuff that before?

7:42Austin Gayle:Yeah, it's like, what does he want? Because we all watch that Miami offense and we're like, this is incredible what he's doing with Tua. Imagine if he had a more talented quarterback with it. I was trying to get Dak Prescott traded there like two off seasons ago. Like get him to Miami. So is that what he wants? Is it like I want somewhere where I can establish myself and then get a head coaching job? You know, like Philadelphia, Detroit. Those are stable, good organizations that if you go there and the team wins big next year, you're going to be looked at next year. So certainly, man, what an offseason we have ahead of us.

8:12Austin Gayle:We were talking before the show. We love the offseason. And the coaching drama right now is maybe as big of a story in the NFL as the playoff games are. But there are playoff games, Austin. And we love this time of year. We're talking about the AFC playoffs, the three games coming up this weekend. We are predicting headlines. What do we think is going to happen? First AFC playoff game Sunday afternoon, Bills at Jaguars. Jaguars are one and a half point home dogs. You start us off. I can't wait because I can't decide on this game. I change my mind every 30 seconds. So I want to see where you're going with it.

8:47Austin Gayle:What is your headline or storyline that's going to come out of this game? When I was writing my playoff predictions and trying to get to my Super Bowl, I really do think I flipped it like three or four times. But to start with the Bills, I'm choosing chaos this postseason, just like how we've had a lot of chaos in the regular season. The Chiefs aren't in it. Jared Goff and the Lions are out. No Lamar Jackson. No Joe Burrow. It's been a crazy regular season. I think that maintains in the playoffs my headline, Bills fire Sean McDermott. Zero in on John Harbaugh. That's coming in next week. And now I don't know if this is going to happen.

9:16I think there's a really good chance the Bills win this game too. But just throw the chaos out there. John Harbaugh is not interviewing with teams until next week. There's been little breadcrumbs of reporting, little shots of reporting that the Buffalo Bills with Sean McDermott and the Green Bay Packers with Matt LaFleur, which I don't really understand. I understand the McDermott one more than I understand the LaFleur one, but there's been reporting that maybe they're interested in Harbaugh now that he's become available. And if they do lose this week, maybe they're starting to look at it. I'm just throwing this into the mix that if the Bills go into this one, a playoffs where there's no Mahomes, everyone said it, there's no Mahomes, there's no Burrow, there's no Jackson.

9:49This is Allen's time to shine. This is his Super Bowl to go take. I know they're going to be on the road because they're the fifth seed. And I do think they're running into a buzzsaw with this Jacksonville Jaguars team. It's 1-8 in a row. They're playing the best football of their lives. Cohen Lawrence looks like an absolute home run. The defense is really good, specifically in the front seven. And the Bills, I think, have holes everywhere outside of kind of how they've been able to run the football with this two, three tight end sets. And obviously Josh Allen being the Super Hope, but he's banged up.

10:14The defense is banged up. They can't stop the run. It's a tough matchup going to Jacksonville. I think they could lose this one now. Do they fire McDermott? Who knows? I'm kind of throwing it crazy out there. But if they lose this game and Harbaugh's not interviewing, I don't know. I think there's going to be serious consideration.

10:27Austin Gayle:Listen, I think it's in play with McDermott because it kind of is like the Harbaugh situation. I mean, these two teams came into the season and they're at that horrible spot where if you're a fan, you want to enjoy every week, but you're kind of like, we have to win the Super Bowl this year. We have to win the Super Bowl. We haven't gotten to the Super Bowl. We have a great quarterback. We haven't gotten there. And that's the situation they've both been in. And for Josh Allen and the Bills, it's like he might have more at stake than any other player in the playoffs, I think. Because I was thinking about this earlier.

10:56Austin Gayle:And I don't even know if it's fair because the team around him is probably the weakest team he's had in Buffalo, I would argue. And yet these other guys are out of the playoffs. And so it's like, can you beat Trevor Lawrence? You know, can you beat Bo Nix? I know it's not quarterback versus quarterback. I understand it, but you know what the narratives are going to be here. And so he's got a lot at stake here. He's got to feel like he's got a great chance. We know the Bills want to run the football. Jaguars are very good at stopping the run. And then the other side of the ball, this has not been a good Bills defense.

11:29Austin Gayle:However, they're better at stopping the pass than stopping the run. And the Jaguars have not been a reliable run game all season. So I flipped my pick to Austin. And at the end of the day, I have Allen's late game heroics. Keep Bills Super Bowl hopes alive. I can never quit the Bills. Listeners of this pod know, I can't quit the Bills. I don't know. I won't be surprised if the Jaguars beat them, even beat them handily, but I'm not betting against Josh Allen right now. Honestly, it's a coin flip game, right? It's a one and a half point spread. I think it could go either way. I think if the Bills do win, it's going to be, they have to abandon the run game.

12:03Trevor Lawrence is having success against the defense and Josh Allen has to put the cape on. And if he does, right, and like you said, maybe he has the most pressure on, I don't think he does. I think it's McDermott, right? I think McDermott going into this game does have a lot of pressure on him. And if this defense, right, I think it's kind of easy to see maybe the Jacksonville Jaguars being able to put points on this team, even though they haven't been able to run the ball successfully really since the first half of the season. It is kind of crazy how bad this Bills run defense has been over the second half.

12:29And now they've been a better passing attack. Have they run into what Cohen, Lawrence, Parker Washington, Jacoby Myers, and Brian Thomas Jr., or even Brenton Strange? This passing offense has three, four legit weapons, a quarterback that's playing the best football of his career, and one of the best offensive coaches in the NFL. And then on the other side, like, yes, this Jaguars defense is a little bit noisy and maybe turnover dependent. I do believe in the front seven. I do think they can stop the run. And if Josh Allen kind of has to be everything for this team, when he doesn't have the pass catchers, they've really needed to lean on James Cook.

12:58It's a game at home for Jacksonville that I do see them having. I think in the situation that McDermott gets fired, I think it's an it's a bad defensive performance, right? It's Trevor Lawrence walking them up and down the field. Josh Allen has to put up 30, 40 points just to stay in the game. And I think that's the situation that I feel is more, most likely if the Jags do end up winning. Well,

13:16Austin Gayle:history tells us that when the bills lose in the playoffs, that's really what it's been. I mean, you, their defensive performances, they've been, they've been like D's and F's. If they could have got to C plus in some of those deep in some of those games, they would have already been to the Superbowl. So you might not be wrong there. I mean, this could be a, there could be wild ramifications from just the wild card round with some of these games. Let's take a break. We come back. We'll get to the other wildcard games.

14:10Austin Gayle:in all areas.

14:41Austin Gayle:All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show. Next game here, Austin Sunday night, Chargers at Patriots. Patriots, three and a half point favorite. I'll give you my headline first. Again, changed it a million times. Yes. May goes toe to toe with Herbert as Patriots get first playoff win since 2018. So listen, there's been a lot of talk about May and the Patriots. Is it a soft schedule? Are they frauds? The MVP stuff with Stafford. I kind of think their offense is as reliable as an entity as we have in the playoffs. I mean, every week they seem to figure it out, regardless of O-line situation, regardless of wide receiver situation, regardless of whether they can run the ball.

15:23Austin Gayle:I do believe May has been that good. I do believe he's ready for the moment, even against a very good Chargers team. And I'm watching the explosive plays because that's really what he's feasted on. You know, they're first in explosive pass play rate and the Chargers, I think, are top five defensively. This is what the Chargers do. They want to take away those explosives. And I think May said it to reporters this week, like I can't get bored with just having an efficient game here. And so I think that's going to be the test. Does he get a little aggressive and does he make that mistake that the Chargers are waiting on?

15:54Austin Gayle:Or can he just play that efficient style? I think he's going to play really well in this game. And I think the Patriots are going to win this game. What do you got? I, they should win this game, right? They're three and a half point favorites. They have the best offense in the NFL by success rate and by EPA. That's for the full season and for the second half of the season. I think a lot of people going into the playoffs look at weeks nine through 18, that second half of the season to see how you're going in. They've been the best offense all year. Now, they've also faced the worst defenses by DVOA this year.

16:21And like some of that is that. But I think you are going into this game feeling very confident that the offense, specifically Drake May, can get things done, even against good defenses. Now, even because they haven't played good defenses, everyone's kind of throwing that question out. But like Drake May has played an MVP level this year. That said, my headline, maybe next year.

16:40Austin Gayle:Bringing back Drake, maybe. Wow. Why I feel like the Chargers are live in this game, and I think everyone's going to point out too, they have the worst offensive line in the NFL right now, and it's not close. It is terrible. They've battled injuries all year. I think they've had almost 30 different five-man offensive line rotations this year. Their tackles specifically are terrible. Going against the Patriots, who are I think middle of the pack, rushing the passer this year, I don't think they get threatened like they had when they're going against Denver or they're going against Houston or if they had to play, you know, Seattle in the Super Bowl.

17:09The Patriots pass rush, I don't think, is there to really take advantage of it. And I also think that the Chargers can run the ball on this team. I think the Chargers have kind of shocked people with how they've been able to run the football over the second half of the season. And Herbert, when shit hits the fan, right? And I think that the way the Patriots win this game is shit doesn't hit the fan. They're able to stay on schedule. They get out to an early lead and they're able to kind of lean on it. And Herbert, then that offense has to become one dimensional and the offensive line gets just too much, right?

17:36Too much work. If shit hits the fan, I trust Herbert Harbaugh and the defensive coordinator for the Chargers mentor to get things done better than I do necessarily with the pass. And I think it's because of how much I just really believe in how Herbert has played this year.

17:49Austin Gayle:All right, let's expectation set for Herbert because this is narrative time. I mean, these playoff games, depending on who wins or loses, you know what the conversation is going to be. So Herbert, you mentioned it. 25, I think I read in The Athletic, 25 different five-man O-line combinations. has been hit 129 times, the second most for a quarterback. This is from Daniel Popper at The Athletic. Second most for a quarterback since 2000. So there's no denying it what you said. Absolutely, O-line has stunk. This Patriots defense is not close to a juggernaut. Maybe mediocre. That might be being generous.

18:24They're actually 27 in pressure rate here.

18:28Austin Gayle:Again, you look at their depth chart. You're not like, oh man, this guy's going to really make a player. This guy's tough to block their pass rush, whatever, any level you want to look at. What should a fair set? Let's say the Chargers lose this game. Justin Herbert should be able to do what? Given his circumstances and given the Patriots circumstances. I feel like Justin Herbert should be able to play well and we should be coming out of this game. Even if they lose, we should be like, Justin Herbert played really well. He made great plays with his arm. He made great plays with his legs. They wouldn't have even been close to in it without him.