An Early Look at the 2026 NFL Draft QB Sweepstakes With Fran Duffy

0:00Welcome to the Ringer NFL Show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia, and I am excited to have my friend here today. His name is Fran Duffy. He is the lead draft analyst for the All City Network. I started to get juiced for the start of college football season, and I thought, let's have Fran on. Give us a little NFL spin on some of the big draft storylines. We're going to specifically talk about the quarterback prospects today. Arch Manning, is he even a prospect for 2026? Garrett Nussmeyer from LSU, Lenora Sellers from South Carolina. We'll get an introduction to some of these guys who this time next year, maybe we'll be talking about them in the NFL.

0:39So Fran, what's your plan Saturday? Are you just like nine o 'clock, parked on the couch, start a game day, and then you're going straight through Pac-12 after dark? Or what's going on for you for the start of college football? I already warned my wife. I already warned Meg. I said, we're going wall to wall. She's got plans for the afternoon. I said, I'm going to throw ribs on the smoker. Francis will be busy. My son will be busy. We're going to sit next to each other and we're going football from noon until 1 a.m. on Saturday. It's going to be a big day. There you go. 13 hours and you know he's going to throw on some game day before then.

1:11So it's going to be a lot of fun. No doubt about it. And the quarterbacks, huge, huge storylines with the quarterbacks this year. So let's take a quick break. We come back and we take a look at the 2026 NFL Draft with Fran Duffy. This episode is presented by American Eagle. Whether you're hanging out at home or headed out for a training session, American Eagle has you covered with a ton of new stuff. We're talking super comfy heavyweight hoodies and joggers that look and feel great, sweat-wicking active shorts that are good to go anytime, anywhere, new move-free jeans made from a crazy comfy real-looking denim, and their biggest underwear collection of the year with striped, solid, and print styles to fill your drawer.

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3:11All right, Fran, let's start with the biggest story in college football. I think one of the biggest stories in sports, honestly, right now, And that's Arch Manning getting his shot to become the guy at Texas. Now, I want your evaluation on him in a minute because I know you've watched all of his snaps that he's had so far. But the big question is, is he going to declare for the draft after the 2026 season? Todd McShay from the McShay Show, you know, he knows the Manning family well. And he said, I'm keeping Arch Manning out of my 2026 mocks because I don't think he's coming out next year. Archie Manning told Texas Monthly that, no, he's staying at Texas.

3:50So there's some more layers to this thing, but just you talk to a lot of people around the NFL. I know you have sort of a sense of this. How are you feeling about the potential for Arch Manning to have a great season this year and then enter the draft after the year? Yeah, I mean, right now, the way I'm handling it is that when I put out my first big board last week and Arch Manning was on it. I have my first mock draft coming out in the coming days. Arch Manning is not going to be on the mock draft. though. I'm basically going to project, use it as like, I'm going to continue to go through the paces of evaluating him for the 2026 draft.

4:21But in terms of projecting forward, like this is who I think is going to be in the first round next year. I don't think I'm going to put Arch in that, in those kinds of exercises. I do tend to think that he's probably going to stay put that said, look, you can, you, it's never, it doesn't do them any good to say, Oh yeah, like we're gonna leave the door open. Cause that's just going to allow the buzz to build. They can always backtrack. So I think if the Saints end up with the number one pick, if he wins the Heisman and wins the national championship, you know, if there's a coaching change, if it goes the other way, you know what I mean?

4:49Like there are so many different outcomes here that could lead to Arch Manning entering the NFL. And so I think at the end of the day, I'm expecting them to really kind of push, put cold water on this. They don't want to be a distraction. They don't want this to mount. Not shocking that this is the direction they're taking. It's interesting, the different members of the Manning family, how they're sort of responding to this. You know, Archie Manning makes those comments and then Arch Manning is asked about it and he says, yeah, I don't know where he got that from. He texted me and apologized about that.

5:22I'm really just taking it day by day right now. And then I was reading in The Athletic, according to multiple NFL scouts, the Texas coaches are treating Arch as if he will be one and done as the full-time starter. in Austin. So there's certainly some uncertainty there. Like you said, there are so many variables where it could be, this is how we want it to go. We want him to stay in college. We want him to get those reps we're seeing in the NFL right now. Those reps in college are very important. You want experience by the time you get to the NFL. But I think the big thing is landing spot. No, you know, looking at the Manning family, like depending on who gets the number one overall pick or who is in position to draft him.

6:02Like you mentioned, the Saints, a team like the Rams, they've got two first round picks going into the draft. I mean, can you, if you're the Manning family and it's like you can go play for Sean McVay, be Matthew Stafford's successor, that seems like you're probably not going to get a better situation the next year. So do you agree? Like, I think that is a big factor here, not only how he plays, how he performs this year, but also what does the situation look like for him in the NFL? Yeah, honestly, it happens all the time where guys come out and they say, you know what, I'm going to stay put.

6:33And then you find out later, oh, actually, I'm going to declare. And that's why I think at the end of the day, just him coming out and just kind of putting cold water on it. I'm talking about like Archie and the family in general, putting cold water on it. I think it's perfectly fine to go about it this way. I do think that it definitely, you know, just kind of lowers the buzz a little bit because from everything I understand, it's a tough life for him in terms of like navigating through campus. And, you know, this is champagne problems, of course, But he's living the big life down there in Austin.

7:03So anything to take the spotlight off a little bit, I think he's going to try and take advantage of it. Yeah, I was thinking of other athletes like this, you know, and I was thinking of LeBron James and Bryce Harper, guys with this much hype before they kind of even, you know, performed at a certain level. And you're just watching them throughout every step going, can they live up to the hype? Can they? And I mean, those guys did it. This is, you're right. This is a different area. You're in college. Everybody's got a phone. Anything you do is being scrutinized. So the argument of like, well, you know, it's fun in college.

7:32It's like his college experience is probably different than yours and mine's, Fran. But let's get to your evaluation because this is interesting. 250 snaps around there he's played so far. Fewer than 100 pass attempts. It's a small sample, but I know you've watched all of them. And when you've watched Arch Manning's film, what have been your biggest takeaways? I mean, at the end of the day, he played 233 snaps last year. in two starts. And so it was a very, very small sample. Now that said, 230 snaps. It was 230 snaps. It took me a couple hours to watch through everything. And one of those games was against Louisiana Monroe.

8:09So you have to take everything into account. But I think at the end of the day, talking about a guy who's 6 '4", over 220 pounds, my guess, I don't think he's going to run the 40. My guess is he'd be a 4 '5 athlete. He is as toolsy as it gets for a quarterback. And I think at the end of the day, he's going into an offense. operated by Steve Sarkeesian, who is one of the best in football right now, in college football, especially in terms of setting the quarterback up for success, leveraging matchups, getting guys into space, finding ways to get their playmakers the ball in space. And so when I'm watching all the missed opportunities that you saw with Quinn Ewers in that offense a year ago, I say, all right, well, let's see what it looks like here with Arch Manning.

8:51You see a guy that's willing to be aggressive in some of those tight window throws, and then you get all the gimmies that come with it. I'm just excited, man. People are saying, oh, you can't project this. How could you possibly say that this guy's the number one pick based off of this small sample? We do this in the NFL every single year. We do this with it. We're projecting guys to the NFL draft every single year. It's okay. We can have fun and analyze this guy and say, yeah, he looks like the real deal, Shield. When I'm watching him, I expect him, based off this small sample, he looks like a guy who could be one of the elites in the NFL.

9:26Yeah, I'm with you. It goes back to the Kapadia rule of it's only sports. It's okay. Everyone take a deep breath, relax. It's okay. We could talk about Archman. For those who don't know Fran's work, I mean, he is very measured generally with this type of thing, but I can tell from talking to him and he sent me some of his notes earlier that he's legitimately excited. You're not like, hey, pour cold water, slow down the hype. The guy hasn't done anything. I mean, the name you had, I don't know if you want to share the name you had is sort of the high-end version. And again, there's a lot of, we understand there's a lot of time to go.

9:59He's got to prove it. But the high-end version of what Arch Manning could be is who for you? Yeah, I mean, I think he could be what Josh Allen is in the NFL in terms of like the big, strong, huge arm, athletic, can make plays with his arm and with his legs, inside structure, outside structure, and be that guy. Like to me, like when I'm watching him, I see a play, I don't see, you know, Trevor Lawrence where it's like, Like, oh, the tools are all there, but something's missing. It's very early. Obviously, we know that all the context aside, to me, he looks like one of those guys. So I'm excited to see it play out this year.

10:35Honestly, Texas, I think they're going to be in the mix for the national title. And I think that Arch Manning is going to be in the mix for the Heisman Trophy at the end of the day. He's going to be at the podium there by the time we get to December. I'm so excited to watch him. I mean, that's going to just be must-watch every single week with Texas. in with Arch Manning. All right, let's take a break. We're going to come back and get to some of the other guys that, hey, if Arch Manning doesn't come out or only one team can get Arch Manning, who are some of the other quarterbacks to keep an eye on?

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13:05Right now, you have LSU's Garrett Nussmeier as your top non-archman in category. I guess we should label it like that guy. What do you like about Garrett Nussmeier? What kind of quarterback is he? Yeah, to me, when I look at Nussmeier, I see a player that is very reminiscent of Tony Romo. He's got a little bit of gunslinger to him, which can work both ways, but this is a guy that can operate within tight spaces. He makes tight window throws. He throws with good anticipation. I thought the touch was outstanding at all three levels. He's got a really tight release. There are some things that you worry about here that was revealed this summer that he's got chronic knee tendinitis, something that he has been dealing with over the last couple of years, but nothing that apparently is a huge, huge red flag.

13:50But that's something certainly scouts and teams will be checking in on throughout the course of the pre-draft process. He's already, I mean, he's only started one year. He took over for Jaden Daniels after the 2023 season, started that bowl game after Daniels. He obviously opt out. He's not taking part in the bowl game. He goes and he wins the MVP of that bowl game, leads a fourth quarter comeback in that game, in his first start. We know he's the son of an NFL offensive coordinator, Doug Nussmeier down in New Orleans. So he's gotten that coaching all throughout his life. But to me, this is a guy that just has a real feel for playing the position.

14:21He made some bad decisions in crunch time down the stretch last year. I think he was pressing a little bit. South Carolina game stood out, late interceptions, throwing across the middle, late in the down. But I think if he tightens some of that up, to me, Garrett Nussmeier looks like a starting quarterback all day. Now, I don't project him to the level of arch in terms of, But yeah, he's going to be the Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson tier. But I do think top 20 quarterback, very much within the range of outcomes for this player. So he's a guy, if he does maybe what a reasonable expectation is for him this year, he could easily be a top five pick in next year's draft, it sounds like.

14:57I think so. He has a lot to overcome in terms of he lost a couple of his weapons and then four-fifths of his offensive line. So that's going to be something to watch. But look, all eyes are going to be on Arch Manning going up against Ohio State this week. This is another big one, though. Garrett Nussmeier is going up against one of the best defenses in college football against Clemson. And so that's going to be another matchup that all eyes are going to be on Death Valley here on Saturday. Yeah, we're going to get to Clemson's quarterback here in a minute. But a couple other guys I wanted to get to first.

15:24I'm excited to watch this guy, Lenore Sellers from South Carolina. He's the third guy in your quarterback rankings right now. 6 '3", 240, was a freshman captain. And to me, this sounds like upside traits. I couldn't believe the note you had that would be 20 years old on draft day if he enters the draft next year. So a very young player, but someone who it sounds like you're intrigued by. First freshman captain in South Carolina history. I talked to a number of his teammates this off season during the pre-draft process, and they all raved about this kid's work ethic and his character. He had offers to take a lot of money in the transfer portal, decided to stay put at South Carolina.

16:06He's got a huge arm. He's a great athlete, and he has got rare strength in the pocket to play through contact. I've seen some comparisons to Steve McNair. I've seen comparisons to Dante Culpepper. I talked with somebody that was down at the Manning Passing Academy, watching him up close, and said, Franny, it reminds me of Donovan McNabb. I think when you're looking at his size, his strength, all the tools are there. It was a rough start, first half of last year, Sheil. The film was very up and down, honestly, probably more down than up. But I thought that he really turned the corner in the second half.

16:35South Carolina was marching to the playoff. Honestly, he could have made an argument that they should have been in the college football playoff last year. So I'm excited to see what Sellers can do in his sophomore season here this year. It's only his second year as a starter. So he might benefit from going back, but the tools might be too much for teams to pass up on. Okay, so that's interesting. Another guy who we're not sure would he come out. or not, but you have to see how he performs this season, what this season looks like for him. But a true dual threat, even in the NFL, right? He would want to go to a team where they're going to have a coach or coordinator saying, hey, we're going to scheme stuff up in the run game that includes the quarterback.

17:11Yeah, I mean, he'll hole escape and make sure. There was a big time throw he made against Texas A &M late in that game. I remember, you know, long runs where he's running around in the backfield and is able to escape and take off. So he can create outside of structure. So I'm excited to say, I mean, he got NFL coaching the last two years, guys that have been on that staff, offensive coordinators, play callers. I know Mike Shula is down there now as the offensive coordinator. So I think that that's going to benefit him in the long term as well. I'm just hoping to see some strides in the little things in terms of pocket management and anticipation, his touch.

17:42He was a fastball thrower only, kind of a flamethrower in that way. Didn't show great touch to all levels of the field last year. So if he can just hone in on a couple of those things, I'll be really, really excited about his future prospects. All right. We've gotten your positives. Now, one guy who just, you know, everybody has their favorites. You do the, this is why I love friend because he doesn't follow the group thing. He is, I've known him for years and he will come with opinions that are different than what the consensus is out there. And it feels like one guy who you are different than the consensus, a guy who I see going first overall in mock drafts is Clemson's Cade Klubnik.

18:19What maybe has you a little, hey, I'm not as high on him. I need to see a little bit more. What is sort of your evaluation? You mentioned that game, LSU-Clemson, this week, and we get to see two of these guys. So what should we expect from Cade Klubnick? Yeah, I think when you're looking at Klubnick, he's 6 '2", 210, so very modest size for the position. He is not the traitsiest player in terms of, obviously, size, but then arm strength. I think he's got a very modest arm, a lot of air under his deep ball. He's not going to wow with his ability to kind of drive it into tight windows, far-reaching towards the sideline.

18:51He's not that type of arm talent. but then you look at the accuracy in ball placement. I just thought he made his receivers work a little bit more often than a guy with his skill. Like the type of quarterback he's going to be, like I need him to be more consistent from a ball placement standpoint than what he was last year as a junior. Now he made some big plays in crunch time. He single-handedly beat Pitt, you know, with a fourth quarter comeback on the final drive. Like he, there are some things I really like about his profile. His teammates have raped about him since he was a freshman. Like there's a lot to like there.

19:22I just, to me, don't see the huge ceiling to take him above some of these other guys, you know, certainly Sellers. You talk about Drew Aller from Penn State and Nussmeyer, certainly Arch. To have Klovnik at number one, I just don't see that level of talent. I think that he's probably more of like, honestly, like a long-term backup type in terms of what that ceiling is. But I am excited to see what he can look like here this year in his final season on campus. Yeah, things change. That's why it's fun. And you do your evaluations now, and they get a whole season under their belt. And then you see where we're at December, January, February, March.

19:56All right. Last quarterback I wanted to get to seems like a bit of a polarizing guy from my alma mater. And that's Drew Aller from Penn State, 6 '5", 236. Where do you land with Drew Aller? Yeah, I mean, this guy's got all the tools. You mentioned the size, the arm talent's there. I think he's got a better arm than Cade Klubnick. He's more athletic than Cade Klubnick. He's bigger than Cade Klubnick. I just think that there's something I'm always left wanting when I'm watching Drew Aller. He's very much a caretaker of the football. He very rarely puts it in harm's way. A lot of people have given him a lot of grief for that final interception, that game-sealing interception last year in the semifinal against Notre Dame where they lost in crunch time.

20:39To be honest, I'm putting that squarely on the wide receiver on that route. It was a bad route from the backside, and the DB was able to jump it. When I'm looking at Aller, I want to see him attempt more of those throws. I want to see him be more aggressive and really try and push things a little bit further down the field. One of the things I wrote down, he reminds me of Sam Bradford. Bradford, number four, number one pick, Heisman Trophy winner out of Oklahoma, but everything was check down, check down, try and be efficient, and that's what I think we see too often with Drew Aller. It's a highly schemed offense there with Andy Koltanicki from Penn State.

21:13I would love to be able to see him take advantage of some matchups, try and press tight windows a little bit more consistently here in 2025. It's his final season. He's a fourth-year senior now. I'm excited to see with three new receivers, because they completely refurbished that receiver room, what does he look like here this year? If he can show up in those big-time moments, because that was another issue. He didn't crack 60 % completion in any of those postseason games, including the conference title game. A lot of people are getting him on that as well. If he can do that, I think that will really help the way he's viewed publicly.

21:45First of all, you're a sicko. Just, you know, oh, this one, this one interception. And like, you know, I don't remember anything beyond what has happened today, what happened this morning. So I know I watched that game. I'm sure I had a reaction to the interception. But yeah, some of the few people, you know, you got these brains where you're remembering specific plays from last year. Like, no, it goes, especially with these daily pods. I mean, it's got to go in. As soon as it's out, it's out. I'm on to the next one. on to the next one here. So yeah, I don't have that gene. You've been doing the Daily Pots for like a week and a half.

22:15You can't use that as an excuse right now. Eat more almonds. Let's keep it moving. There you go. That's right. All right. Last thing I wanted to ask you about a non-quarterback. I know you've looked at a bunch of the first round prospects of the guys you've watched so far. Who is your favorite non-quarterback that you've studied so far? I'm going to go with a guy that's a little bit off the board here. I'm going to go with Auburn. Auburn defensive lineman Keldrick Falk. This is a guy that is viewed by some as an edge rusher. I actually have him with the interior defensive lineman, but it doesn't matter because this guy, he is a versatile playmaker up front.

22:506 '6", 288 pounds. So with that body type, I see more of a guy that's going to line up and really kind of make his money on the inside. But he's a good athlete, very easy change of direction, disruptor. He's really good against the run. He's got power to push the pocket from the outside or from the inside. His hands can improve a little bit, But to me, when I'm watching this guy, he looks like a future top five type of defensive tackle in the NFL. One of those premier interior disruptors. He and Peter Woods from Clemson, I've got basically the same grade on both guys. So this defensive line class is pretty strong so far from what I've seen for next spring.