Around the AFC With 10 Big Questions!

22:28and then most elusive would be their turnovers. They were forcing a ton of turnovers last year. You know, one of the five, you know, one of the five highest turnover rates defensively in the league last season. You don't know if that's going to stick year over year and I would bank on, given, you know, how kind of iffy their talent is on that side of the ball, that if they do come down to earth at all, that we're not going to see a 12, 13 win team the way that we did last season. And then lastly, it's the Chargers. And to me, no team in the AFC benefited more from Kansas City having the season that they did last year than the Los Angeles Chargers.

23:01I don't think that they were all that good last season. I thought that Jesse Minner did a good job with this defense, right? But I don't know that that team was ever actually that good down the stretch. I think that they were able to kind of sneak in or kind of fall ass backwards into, you know, the playoffs. And we ultimately saw what came of that team in the wildcard round playing New England, right? But I really struggle to see, unless Mike McDaniel genuinely gives them one of the five best rushing attacks, and maybe they have the best play action EPA in the league, that's really the only pathway in which I'm comfortable saying that this team is a safe candidate to make the playoffs again.

23:39And I love Justin Herbert. I respect what Jim Harbaugh is doing with this team and maximizing it. But this is a talent league. And to your point, talking about the Raiders depth chart and asking whether or not enough was done in one offseason to actually take a major step forward, Once the shine of, oh, you just brought in Mike McDaniel wears off and you actually evaluate where this roster is at, their cap is as healthy as it gets in the league. The roster, you're going to have a hard time finding difference-making talent around Justin Herbert that will actually convince you that this team can be a legitimate contender in the AFC.

24:13Diante Lee:All right, I'm not going to jump into a big Herbert conversation and I'm not going to jump into a big Trevor Lawrence conversation because there may be a question about those guys coming in the future. But okay, noted. So you've got Jaguars, Chargers, and Steelers. So I think the Steelers would be on most people's list. I think if we did this with 100 people whose opinions we respected, I think over 90, maybe over 95 would have the Steelers. Steelers fans, don't get upset. It's just the nature of having that quarterback situation, making the coaching change. And were you actually that great last year?

24:49Diante Lee:Probably not. So you got that with the Steelers. I did have the Patriots on my list, which I think, you know, again, there may or may not be another question about the Patriots, but we know about the schedule last year. We know about sort of the controversy around the head coach this offseason. And I think it's fair to question if you look at the history of teams that lost in the Super Bowl. Now, a bunch of them get back to the playoffs. I think only one, I want to say that one Patriots team that lost to the Eagles and then won the following year. I think that's the only one that actually got to the Super Bowl back to back years, except for me.

25:27Diante Lee:I'm trying to think of the Chiefs now when the Chiefs lost to the Eagles. OK, so there's two maybe in the last 15 years or whatever it is. But the point is a lot. Most of the time when you there is such a thing as a Super Bowl hangover for the team that loses in the Super Bowl. So I had them on my list. And then the last one to me came down to one team you have and another team you didn't have. Jaguars or Broncos, I thought was pretty tough for me. I actually think the Chargers look like a playoff team to me over those other two. But the Broncos or the Jaguars, I was like, huh. Like, I like the, you're right.

26:02Diante Lee:I liked the Jaguars last year. They were playing really well. And I think I might end up having them in the playoffs once we get to August. and Denver is just, it's hard to bet against them when you just look at Sean Payton's history. Like usually they're going to be in the mix for at least a playoff spot and it's not like they got worse and you said it's a talent league. I mean, are there five rosters overall that are better than the Broncos? I would say no. No, right? In the entire NFL. So push comes to shove. Oh, I guess I'll go Jacksonville. All right, I talked myself into Jacksonville and going AFC West heavy there in the AFC playoffs.

26:40Diante Lee:But yeah, that's a tough one. If you look at the odds, Deontay, it's actually Steelers, yes, we both had. Jaguars, who you had. And then the third team with the worst odds from that group that made it last year to make the playoffs, the Houston Texans. How about that? They have a tricky schedule. They have a tricky schedule. I think they have a lot of primetime games they're going to play against a lot of good offenses this year. It's very similar to Seattle's and the NFC, right? Like, it feels very much like, I know that they have a randomly generated NFL schedule, but this felt very much like the computer decided, hey, you say you're so good at defense?

27:13Well, let's find out about it. We're going to put you in front of as many eyeballs as possible against as many talented offenses as we can see, and we're going to find out just how great this defense actually is in the regular season.

27:23Diante Lee:Yeah. And I guess if you're looking at the AFC South, you could make the case that if you don't win the AFC South, maybe you're not going to make the playoffs if you don't think there's going to be a wildcard team out of that division. All right, let's take a break. We come back. Many more questions.

28:04Diante Lee:used to treat adults with moderately to severely active Crohn's disease and adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis. Serious allergic reactions, increased risk of infections or lower ability to fight them and liver problems may occur. Before treatment, get checked for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu-like symptoms or need a vaccine. Explore what's possible. Ask your doctor about Trimphia today. Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit TremfireRadio.com. ...to get to when we return. All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show. Shield Kapadia with Deontay Lee.

28:44Diante Lee:Deontay, what do we got? What's the next number here? Next one for me, we are going with four. Four, I'm scrolling up. All right, here we go. Under the radar, intriguing player. Maybe we did a list of, I think, top 10 most interesting players in the NFL going into 2026, I think Cam Ward makes my list. And so here it is, Deontay. Over, under for where Cam Ward will finish. And let's say in terms of EPA per pass play next year, for those who are not familiar with the nerd stats, it's just a general efficiency stat. It's not perfect. None of them are perfect. I think it's probably the best one. It's the one that people inside the NFL are looking at the most.

29:29I will set it at 19 and a half.

29:33Diante Lee:Deontay, do you think Cam Ward will finish among the top 19 quarterbacks or lower than 19? And the reason, as you think about that, the reason I think he's an interesting player is because it seems like the film grinders are in on Ward, where they say, everybody settle down. This guy's got it. It was a normal rookie season. He took his lumps. It was a bad situation. But man, the highs are there. and the analytics nerds are a little more skeptical, saying, I don't know that it was that great. And this might be our next great quarterback argument, Deontay, might be Cam Ward going forward. So now we get to find out where you land on this over or under 19 and a half in 26.

30:17This is such an interesting question because I'm actually working on something, talking about just where the quarterbacks are situated across the league and how much trust I have in each team's quarterback situation. And Tennessee is one of the few where I really had to sit and think about, would I rather be the Titans than X team? Would I really rather have Cam Ward as my number one quarterback for 2026 and into the future versus X team? And I think that picking 19th is really interesting because that last year, that's right where Jalen Hurst was at in EPA per dropback. amongst quarterbacks with 100 dropbacks or more.

30:52And he was right at NFL average at.04 EPA per dropback. So you're basically saying, to me, do you think he can be relatively disappointing but mostly okay? League average. Right, league average. It's better than replacement level, but not so much that you think he's a difference-making quarterback. I think that that's a reachable threshold for him. I also think that for him He should be thanking his lucky stars And I know this is going to sound crazy He should be thanking his lucky stars That his offensive play caller this year Is going to be Brian Dable Because I think the way that he calls offense Fits the way that Cam Ward Likes to play quarterback the best, right?

31:33So if you can think of the best version Of Dable's offense So that's 2021 in Buffalo You think about 2022 in New York The thing about those offenses Is that they like to take chances on early downs, right? You go back, you watch Josh Allen in 2021. I mean, the amount of times you'll pull up a clip and it's first and 10 or it's second and 12. And most offenses like to play it safe. Hey, let's stay on schedule. Let's make sure second down is manageable. And you'll watch a clip and wide receivers are just flying up the field. And Josh Allen is letting it rip up the seam or letting it rip up the sideline, right?

32:10And I think that that's how Cam Ward needs to play. It's not going to be, in my opinion, let him sit in the pocket. he's going to work from one to two to three to four like is Matthew Stafford or Lamar Jackson a couple of years ago when he was winning MVP. It's going to be put him in the gun. We're running vertically. You find your matchup, go take your matchup, and we're going to trust you to go extend if that look isn't there. I think that if you look at some of the worst of Cam Ward's play last year, a lot of it was him breaking structure, trying to be a hero because he didn't trust that he could get to the receivers or to the concept or that the receiver that might be open to somebody that he could actually trust targeting with the football.

32:48I think that this year adding Carnell Tate to the mix, having a different style of offense for him to operate in will all work in his favor. And I do think he can reach that 18 to 20 range in terms of EPA and be around league average. And I think if that's the case, if you're a Titans fan, you would be over the moon for that, just given how tough their quarterback situation has been over the last couple of years. and how dire it looked at times last season with Ward running around in the pocket, trying to make something out of nothing.

33:19Diante Lee:It almost feels like second-year quarterbacks rarely settle into the middle. It's almost like they either make some crazy leap where you're like, this guy's one of the 10 best guys. This is a disaster, right. Or it's a disaster, and you're like, are we starting him in year three type deal? So if you look at it statistically here, last 10 years, among 32 rookie quarterbacks. Ward's rookie season ranked 26th. The guys below him were Justin Fields, Deshaun Kaiser, Zach Wilson, CJ Beathard, Bryce Young, and Josh Rosen. So that's why the analytics nerds are like, settle down, let's see it. But Deontay just laid out the case for why maybe that was the case and why he might be an exception.

34:02Diante Lee:It's still a pretty small sample you're looking at. I am not the biggest day ball guy. I would like to see, I am basically in the camp of let me see him prove that he can do this with a young, talented quarterback. I mean, he chose, remember, Brian Dayball had options this offseason. It looked like Philadelphia was one. There were other teams interested and he kind of chose, let me go to Tennessee and work with this young, talented quarterback in Cam Ward. I need him to prove to me that he is a very good offensive coach. And it wasn't just Josh Allen, because as we've said before, literally every OC has had success.

34:38Diante Lee:with Josh Allen. Now, Dayball, if you're a Dayball backer, you could say, hey, that one year with Daniel Jones, all right, I'll give him that. Now, after that, ugly. Daniel Jones goes to Indy. Yeah, not as pretty. Yeah, and Daniel Jones then goes to Indy and plays really well for them last year. So, I need to see it with Brian Dayball. You mentioned it. They add Tate. They add Wandel Robinson. It's not like, oh my gosh, unbelievable supporting cast, but it is, I think, a good enough environment where if the OC is good and the quarterback is good, that you can get to mediocre competent. And to your point, that might not sound exciting to Titans fans, but there's something to be said for a quarterback who's as young as Cam Ward in his second year, showing you he can play at a league average level, and then you can build on that in the next offseason.

35:22Diante Lee:So I'm going worse than 19 and a half. I probably have him somewhere in the 20s. Deontay's going better, but it's going to be worth watching. It's going to be fun to watch Cam Ward. He's one of those guys who it's not a headliner. Again, it's not a contending team, but when you get to, hey, what else is interesting in the NFL this year? He's certainly on that list. All right, Deontay, what do you got? What's next? Let's move on to number eight. Number eight. Let's see. What do I got down here? All right. A true or false for you, Deontay, with another AFC South quarterback. So true or false. at some point in the next year, the Texans and CJ Stroud will agree to terms on a deal that pays him at least$55 million per year.

36:10Diante Lee:And if you're wondering how I settled on that number, that would make him a top five paid quarterback in the NFL. The guys being paid 55 or more are Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, Jordan Love, and Trevor Lawrence. So CJ Stroud right now is on the fifth year option or is entering his fourth year and then he'll have the fifth year option. So they don't have to do anything right now. But as we know, when you believe in a quarterback, you pay the quarterback. Do you think he'll have the type of season where next off season or maybe even before then you might tell me that they're going to pay him at that level?

36:49Diante Lee:What do you think? If you're asking me today, I think he gets the extension, but not for that number. So that I would say false. I'm going false. I will say if we're adding context, right, if we just take the binary out of it and we add some context, if I'm CJ Stroud, I am rooting like hell for Baker Mayfield. I need the bottom of the clear starter, but not difference-making quarterback market to be lifted as high as possible. So that way I have something comparable to work off of. Because right now, I think, if you're CJ Strauss' agent, you walk in and say, hey, Brock Purdy is making$53 million.

37:25You'd rather have me than Brock Purdy. So yeah, I would make$55 plus. The issue there, and I think the same is true of Jared Goff, who's right around that kind of low 50s threshold as well. The issue with that is, the GM, right, Nick Casario can go back and say, Brock Purdy has won playoff games when they needed him to. He has defined moments as a quarterback where he was the lead reason why San Francisco was moving the ball down the field, was able to be a top five, top eight offense year over year. Same with Jared Goff. Whatever we think about them in the ultimate quarterback hierarchy and who's most likely to win MVP aside, those guys have bona fides in the postseason that CJ Stroud is not.

38:06What we know of Stroud is at his greatest in his rookie year, he wasn't turning the ball over, wasn't taking any sacks, and he looked like he might be the next big thing. and in every year since, the turnovers have regressed to the mean, the sacks have increased a bunch, and when he's gotten to the postseason, he's looked like one of the worst starters in the playoffs. Now, I don't necessarily think that that means that it's going to stay that way for the remainder of his career, but he doesn't have much of a leg to stand on right now if you're talking about asking for$55-plus million per year in this market.

38:37So I'm saying false now, and I'd be willing to revisit this conversation if Jalen Hurts gets extra years tacked on to his deal and he's going to be making in the high 50s. If a Baker Mayfield gets paid in the mid-50s. If a Sam Darnold gets a contract extension that's going to pay him in the mid-50s. I need that rising tide to kind of lift my boat a little bit if I'm CJ Stroud because I think that if you're asking me today, it's much more likely that he gets paid in the 40-ish range around where Daniel Jones is at. at least if I'm Nick Casario, that's what I'm putting on the table, then he would be getting in the mid-50s because that's where Joe Burrow, the Josh Allens, Jordan Loves, guys who we genuinely believe can go win an MVP are being paid right now.

39:21Diante Lee:All right. If I'm CJ Stroud's agent and you're bringing me that Purdy comp saying, all right, well, what about Trevor Lawrence? What has he done? He had what? One great playoff game. What has he done? His organization showed a commitment to him. We've been to the divisional round three years in a row and we ran into some good teams there. And, you know, we lost those games. And, you know, my client, CJ Stroud, has never publicly blamed the offensive line, which he could have done. He's never blamed this rotating cast and offensive coordinator that he's never done. He could tell you that his coach, D 'Amico Ryans, you know, maybe wants him to not take as many chances.

39:57Diante Lee:And so the numbers might not be great offensively, but he's really preaching that, hey, just don't lose the game for us. Our defense is really good. And you know what? He's still young. and he absolutely, he might not be in the same class. I'm not going to tell you he's in the same class as Josh Allen or Joe Burrow, but this is a young player and the salary cap has gone up and he absolutely, I mean, if you're coming to us with that Daniel Jones contract, don't even waste my time. I mean, I'm not picking up the phone for that. We can do that via text. I'm going to just leave you. You're not going to get a response from me.

40:29Diante Lee:You might get a thumbs down emoji from me that we're not even having a conversation if the first number doesn't start with five. I think that that's very fair. And if I'm Nick Casario, I'm saying, CJ, I respect you. But let me just add the fact that the GM that signed Trevor Lawrence to that contract got fired very shortly after. Okay? That's what, I think that's what I would shoot back at him. Is it totally fair? No. Right? Trent Baalke got fired for a multitude of reasons, not just because of the contract that he handed Trevor Lawrence, but I'm going to say that Trevor Lawrence can't be the comp, right?

41:02And if I'm looking at the rest of our roster and the fact that we have a number one defense, your best friend right now has been the combination of Neil Hunter, Will and Will Anderson, and having Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter playing in the secondary. And if you would like to keep your best buds on the other side of that ball, if you want to keep Nico Collins as your number one receiver, my friend, we're going to have to make some sacrifices, all right? We'll give you a nice hefty signing bonus, and we'll play the cap math and add on four void years to be able to spread out the money to make it work.

41:30We'll make you whole on the front end, but these cap numbers have got to stay down, buddy, because we're not sure if you can be that all pro level quarterback. We need you to be where it would be worth sacrificing all of the great roster building we've been doing around you.

41:44Diante Lee:Interesting player, bit of a polarizing player. You can kind of feel it coming. Some version of the conversation we just had, the role playing we had there with agent versus analyst there on CJ Stroud. I was looking at the numbers, Deontay, and if you just look at the last three years since Stroud has been in the league, you include the rookie season, you include everything. He's 21st out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks in EPA per pass play. So a little below league average. Now, if you look at it individually, top 10 and 24, 26th and 20, I'm sorry, 2023, he was top 10. 2024 was his worst season, was 26th.

42:26Diante Lee:And then last year was actually better than I kind of remembered in my head. Solak when he was on made the point that since the end was so bad, you know, we're forgetting that he actually had some very good stretches. Yeah. So he was 12th overall last year, but a very high variance player. I mean, three seasons and your range is from seventh to 26th. Like that's pretty rare. I feel like for a quarterback. So I think it's fair to just sort of be like, huh, I don't know. How good is he? Is he really good? Is he definitely a franchise guy? Now, what happens with the young quarterbacks a lot of times is the team doesn't have a lot of leverage here.

43:04Diante Lee:You can extend him at the top of the market. You can franchise tag him and keep him. You can franchise tag him and try to trade him. Or you can let him walk, which basically, obviously, that's kind of a non-starter, I think, if you're the Texans. So it's like you kind of have to project a little bit and decide. Nothing has happened so far. We'll see if they're just waiting on this season. maybe it'll be an easy decision for him. I mean, if he plays at a top 10 level, which I think is possible this year, then it's a very easy decision for them. If he plays terribly and it looks like two years ago, then it also might be an easier decision for them.

43:39Diante Lee:If it's in the middle there, that's where it gets tricky with some of these young quarterbacks where you're like, hmm, what is the move here? Do we want to go year by year? Cost us a lot, cost ourselves a lot of money. You mentioned the cap stuff, your franchise tag him. Now there's a lot less you can do with the rest of your roster. or do you make the leap and say, we believe in him because we see stuff behind the scenes. There's stuff that's not in his control, but the arrow's pointing up for him. Do you reach that conclusion or not? So yeah, Stroud, very interesting. 2026 coming up for CJ Stroud as well here.

44:10Diante Lee:All right, Deontay, what do you got? What's next? Let's take a big jump and go to number one. I'm a true on that one, by the way. So Deontay said false. I think a year from now, CJ Stroud will be paid at that level, 55 million or higher. Let's see if that looks stupid when we're doing this podcast next year. All right, you said number one, Deontay? Yes, sir. Okay, scrolling up to number one. Here we go. More likely, I kind of teased this one earlier, more likely to repeat as division champs, the New England Patriots or the Denver Broncos. So these are two teams, big stories in the AFC last year, surprise teams last year, And now it's like, well, what's it going to look like this year ahead?

44:57Diante Lee:So if you had to pick one to repeat as division champ, which of those two teams do you go with? Again, this is like one of those game theory situations for me where it's like, to me, the Patriots pathway to winning the division is just clearer than the Broncos is because the Chiefs exist in the AFC West, right? And the Chargers exist in the AFC West. Whereas for New England, and we saw this last year, And obviously, I mean, they were winning. They won a bunch of close games. They were able to beat the Bills the first time they played in primetime. That was really kind of the Drake May coming out party where he really established himself as a legitimate MVP candidate.

45:34If you remember that fourth quarter where he's scrambling around, throwing the ball, you know, converting these like extremely long third downs. I think the pathway is clearer for the Patriots. That said, again, like if this is a trust meter, if this is putting it on a scale, who do I believe in more as a team, I still think I trust Denver more. I think that what they do on a year-to-year basis is just more stable. I trust their defense more than I do the Patriots, even though I love their secondary and how much they can play tight coverage, you know, and they stack the box so they're able to take the runaway as a result.

46:08I just look at what Denver does, and I look at their success over the last couple of years as proof that they don't actually need Bo Nix to be anything like a Drake May for them to continue winning the AFC West. they just need their defense to remain healthy, their offensive line to remain healthy, and for Sean Payton to continue to be a Hall of Fame level play caller. I have no reason. Although he's giving it up.

46:30Diante Lee:Don't forget, one of the more underrated. Now maybe he'll take it back over in week six and be here and play here. To me, that feels very much like the NFL rules dictate the fact that for me to keep Davis Webb around, I've got to cede play calling duties. I don't think that Davis Webb is putting a single call on the sheet or saying anything in that headset that did not get the explicit thumbs up from Sean Payton. But I do, I just trust where Denver's at. I think that the Patriots can win the AFC East. I think if you're asking me to pick today, I'm still going to take the Bills, but I'd trust them nor to win their division.

47:05But if this was a question about winning a Super Bowl, making an appearance in the conference championship, I still think I would lean more in Denver's direction.

47:13Diante Lee:All right. We disagreed on some earlier ones. We landed at the exact same spot on this one. I mean, verbatim what my notes were on this, which is that to your point, I think the Patriots have a better chance to win their division because of the division that they're in and that they don't have the Chiefs and the Chargers. They just have the Bills in their division. However, if both these teams, you told me they're both healthy and it's week two of the NFL season and it's a neutral field, I would pick the Broncos to win. I think the Broncos are the better team. I think the Broncos were the better team at 52 out of 53 spots when they played in the AFC Championship game and happened to be worse at the most important one.

47:52Diante Lee:Yeah, you are right about that. And then, of course, the injury there to Bo Nix. I was looking at with some of these teams, all right, what were the luck factors? We all do this exercise usually in the summer. But I'm like, for these two teams, I'm curious. Let me remind myself. Patriots were 7-3 in one-score games. They were the healthiest team in the NFL. when you look at FTN, does the stat, adjusted games lost, and they face the easiest schedule in the NFL. So those are like a lot of factors that you would typically look at in any given season and say, ooh, okay, it's definitely going to be a little bit harder for them this following season.

48:26Diante Lee:Now, on the other hand, it's not like they have the hardest schedule in the NFL this year. It's more middle of the pack. It's just not the easiest. You have the A.J. Brown edition, which we're expecting to happen at some point next week. You had the Mike Frabel scandal that I don't know how you plug that into your formula and compute it to wins. But I don't think it's nothing where you can just say, hey, we don't even have to mention it. So very difficult team to analyze where I think you could certainly make the case that, hey, if Drake May is just going to be one of the best five to eight quarterbacks in the NFL and you're adding A.J.

49:02Diante Lee:Brown to what you did last year, then that's probably going to be a playoff team in the AFC East. you can make that case. And then, as I said, you can point to some of the regression. For the Broncos, Deontay, nine and two in one score games last year, which Sean Payton has actually mentioned in press conferences. So good job by the Broncos. You know, whoever the analytics staffer was like, hey, Sean, hey, Sean, you guys weren't as good as you thought last year. Would you want to be the, would you want to be the analytic specialist that has to utter the phase of regression to the mean to someone like Sean Payton?

49:35I would not want to be the deliverer. I wouldn't want to.

49:37Diante Lee:Yeah. But it got through to him because he was repeating it in press conferences. So good job to whoever's built up enough equity with Sean Payton to be able to tell them the truth on that. They were the eighth healthiest team in the NFL. They faced the eighth. No, sorry. They faced the fourth easiest schedule last year. So they faced a very easy schedule, too. And this year, if you just look at like what's the difference last year to this year, now it's the eighth hardest schedule. So their kind of leap in terms of, hey, what they faced last year versus what they're going to face this year, it's actually a bigger gap than what it's going to be for the Patriots.

50:13Diante Lee:So yeah, it's very interesting to look at these two teams. If you look at the gambling odds, Patriots plus 140 to win the AFC East, Broncos plus 210 to win the AFC West. So I think the betting markets are kind of landing where Deontay and I are both landing and that the Patriots have a better chance to win the division, even if they might not necessarily be the better team. All right, let's... Want to support your gut health? Take Activia's Gut Health Challenge by enjoying two Activia yogurts a day for two weeks and see if you feel a difference. With billions of probiotics and 20 years of scientific expertise, Activia is one of the easiest and tastiest ways to start your gut health ritual.

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51:35Diante Lee:Let's take one more break. We'll come back. We'll get to the rest of these questions. All right. We are back on the Ringer NFL show. Deontay, what do you got? Where are we going to? All right. Let's go to number seven here. Number seven. He decides we... All right. We had the first part of this question earlier. Every year, each conference, you knew this was coming. You have three new playoff teams, and you have three playoff teams from the previous year that don't make it. We went over which teams we think might not make it. Now we're filling those slots. Which three new playoff teams, Deontay, are we going to have in the AFC?

52:17Diante Lee:What do you think? Oh, man, this one's tricky. I think that there are two easy ones and then one where it's great that we have the disclaimer that I cannot have this podcast held against me. But the easy ones to me is Kansas City and Baltimore, right? Because you're talking about MVP caliber quarterbacks being healthy, you know, making changes to their staff, trying to add more talent to their rosters. I think that those are relatively simple ones to throw into the playoffs in the AFC. the last one for me I think it's all to me it's almost like by default because I absolutely refuse to paste my name next to any other team that would be a candidate here and I'm going with the Colts right and to me interesting to me I think if you're laying out the case for the Colts it would be that the defense gets a little bit better because you're going to have a healthier sauce gardener who's going to be there who's going to be within the rhythm of the defense he'll be your number one corner I do think after the trade happened, he looked like he was getting back to, you know, first and second year sauce Gardner form, right?

53:23You started to see him making more plays on the ball. You started to see him be a little bit more of an eraser in terms of playing matchups down the field. So I have some trust in that. I think that I still believe in the Colts offensive line, right? It's quietly become one of the more dependable offensive lines. It's not going to pop the way that Philadelphia's has at its peak or the way that Buffalo's does at times where they're just totally road grading people, but they've done a great job for the most part of keeping their quarterbacks upright and obviously being able to build a running game around that offensive line and star running back Jonathan Taylor.

53:56And then I think that he really might be the fulcrum of this, right? Where after watching him for the last couple of years, I think that Jonathan Taylor can have that Saquon Barkley in 2024 type of season where, you know, the efficiency metrics be whatever they are, but he leads the league in runs of 20-plus yards. He's leading the league in yards after contact. He's the one who's moving the chains. In the red zone, he's the best threat in the league. I think if you're going to lean on Jonathan Taylor, this offensive line, and a defense that is pretty regularly kind of hanging around league average, that that's just enough for a lesser Daniel Jones, if we're assuming the Achilles keeps him from being the kind of athlete he was last year, for them to still maybe sneak nine wins out of the 2026 season and back in as like the seventh seed?

54:42Diante Lee:The Colts, there may or may not be a Colts question coming up for Deontay still in this podcast. So, all right, so you've got the Ravens, the Chiefs, and the Colts. This is what I was saying earlier, Deontay, because if we can rule out, and maybe I'm wrong to rule these teams out, maybe one of them, you know, surprises happen every year in the NFL, but I don't know how many people are going to pick the Titans. the Browns, the Raiders, the Jets, or the Dolphins. Right. It's kind of a coin flip to me between Cincinnati and Indianapolis. Right. So if you take out those five, now we're saying, all right, pick seven spots out of 11 teams.

55:22Diante Lee:And that's where you go with the Colts there. I would go with the Bengals. No surprise to longtime listeners of this pod that I'm just going to buy in on the Bengals and say, all right, offense is going to be pretty prolific. Schedule is not bad for the Bengals. It's actually one of the easier schedules in the NFL this year. So they got that going in their direction. And to what we were saying earlier, can you get me to the 25th best defense where you're just, maybe it's just one of those where you're getting, you know, the other teams running the football on you, but at least you're making them string together drives.

55:53Diante Lee:And it's not just a complete disaster. There were signs of some of that, you know, in the latter part of last year. Now, I don't know if the schedule was obviously a factor in that, but it wasn't like they were the worst the entire time. There were some signs of life from some of their younger players and their new DC. Again, I'm not getting carried away with it, but we're talking about just a level where you can let the offense do what the offense wants to do. So if you can get, it's always a big if, Burrow healthy, Higgins healthy, Chase healthy. I think offensive line-wise, this is like just on paper, it's better than what Joe Burrow has had, I think, for a lot of his career.

56:31Diante Lee:I'm not telling you it's a top five offensive line or anything like that, but I think it can be a solid offensive line. I think there would be enough there for the Bengals. So yeah, it feels like most people will have the Ravens and Chiefs, right? I mean, you look at the odds, Deontay. The Ravens are minus 350. Chiefs are minus 184. How confident are you that August version of Deontay Lee is still going to have the Chiefs in the playoffs? Are you feeling like you're pretty? Because I'm like, all right, right now I would pick them, but I'm not positive I'm going to be that bullish on them Let's see what the status is on Patrick Mahomes once we get later into the summer before I decide whether I think they're going to rebound and definitely be a playoff team.

57:11I'm not certain, right? I think that, you know, I don't pat myself on the back for takes, but I would definitely say that, like, when it comes to Kansas City, at least last season, I was probably the earliest person nationally that was saying, like, this team is not making the postseason. I'm just looking at the math and what I'm seeing on the field and the two and two are not equaling four for me here. I don't feel certain, but I do think.

57:35Diante Lee:You had the Jags in instead of them. What a call. I remember that. I don't know what week it was, but I was going, are you nuts? What's he talking about here? I did it before. It was cool, man. I can be a hipster sometimes. I can be a hipster at times. That's what you want to do. You want to lean in, like pick a day, you know, like I wore a plaid, you know, the other day. Exactly. I was like, all right. I got my PBR sometimes. I get my IPA every once in a while. Just if you start going too far in that direction, Deontay, I'm going to have to grab you and pull you back in. That's all. But yeah, I'm not certain about it, but if you're asking me to bank on a quarterback, I'm never not going to bank on Patrick Mahomes.

58:11I think the Chiefs fans give me some grief because I'm not a fan of their offense, and I'm still not certain that this offense around him is going to be enough for this team to truly be a contender. But on a down-to-down basis, nobody's doing more heavy lifting. to get its offense out of bed and to school on time with its teeth brushed and all the, you know, mucus out of their nose that Patrick Mahomes is doing for his teammates in Kansas City. And I think that for me, it's less about me liking the Colts and disliking the Bengals. I think that the big question is, if the Steelers are out, how far out do you think they're going to be?

58:44And I think that for me, while I don't have them as a playoff team, I still think that that roster with Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers limited as he may be, is going to be an eight to nine win team. I don't think the Bengals are going to, you know, roll through a season where the Ravens are the only threat to them in their division, right? So I think that they're going to have to scratch and claw for this. And because I believe that the Jaguars are going to come back to earth, I just think it makes a little bit more sense for me to pick another AFC South team to sneak in, you know, as a wildcard team than for me to say, the Steelers will hang around nine wins, the Ravens will be back in the playoffs, the Jaguars will also be hanging around.

59:22but I think that the Bengals are going to be the team that end up getting 10 or 11 wins to get in. I just need to see it first, given the recent history with this team defensively.

59:31Diante Lee:All right. I like it. I was looking at this. I mean, there could be even more turnover, I think, with the playoff teams than a regular season. Some years you do this exercise and it's hard to get to three new teams in each conference. I felt like I easily could have gotten to four. And if I was feeling frisky, you know, maybe even more than that. So we'll see if that means anything or not once they actually play the games, but in terms of projecting and trying to think about it, it wasn't hard to get to three teams in each conference. All right, Deontay, what do you got? What's the next number?

1:00:02All right, we're rounding the home stretch here. Let's go to three.

1:00:05Diante Lee:Three. We go up to number three, and we've got this. All right, speaking of hipsters, which hipster favorite, Deontay, has a better chance to make the leap to top three MVP candidate? Is it? Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. So you already told us you're not so sure they're going to be a great team this year. Or is it Trevor Lawrence? Another team that could be fringe playoff team. But those are two quarterbacks who have been, I feel like have taken up a lot of space on podcasts and columns and social media and whatever else you want to say over the years here. And a reminder, most seasons, the MVP, your team's got to win like 11 games.

1:00:54Diante Lee:Most years you have to be a one or the two seed. Matthew Stafford last year was the exception. And then you do have to, you know, grade out well in the nerd stats. I know it sounds weird. Like, does the average MVP voter actually look at that? Well, a lot of this is intuitive where if you're just like that guy's playing awesome, they're probably going to pass the nerd test with EPA and all that. But if you look at historically where the MVPs come from, that's where they come from. So Trevor Lawrence or Justin Herbert, better chance to be a top three MVP candidate in 2026. God, for two teams I'm not in love with.

1:01:30This is a tough one. You know, I do like both quarterbacks. I like both quarterbacks. I think in my mind's eye, stylistically, I'm a little more comfortable with saying that it'll be Trevor Lawrence, even though I think Herbert's a better quarterback. I just think that if the Chargers offense is going to be the gangbusters force that it could be under Mike McDaniel, it's actually going to be because they revolutionized their run game and less because Justin Herbert is going to be tearing things up in the passing game, right? Like my version of an MVP level season under Mike McDaniel for Justin Herbert is they're able to get those throws behind the line of scrimmage that turned into 15 plus yards the way that he was able to with Tua.

1:02:08It's not going to be, oh, Mike McDaniel now changes the style of offense that he calls because he has this cannon armed six foot six quarterback who can run, I think that there's going to be elements of that. But I think that really this is going to be an offense that's built around layups for Herbert within five yards of the line of scrimmage, off of play actions or RPOs or screens where guys can go get yards after the catch. Whereas for Trevor Lawrence, a lot of the heat that they caught, you know, towards the end of that year was him being a hero on third down, him extending, right, him avoiding pressure, him beating the blitz with his arm, pushing the ball down the field.

1:02:44These are things that he's flashed right at different points in his career. And last year, I thought down that last kind of seven, eight week stretch of the season, he absolutely caught fire on those things. And I think that Liam Cohen is an offensive play caller in the passing game. Wants his quarterback to aggressively seek out those throws in that 10 to 20 yard range in the middle of the field. And we know that Lawrence will rip those throws if they're there. So I think that it's more likely that you get the prolific passing numbers from a Lawrence to get him in the top three MVP conversation.

1:03:16Whereas for Herbert, the pathway to me is going to be all the EPA success rate red zone metrics look great. And he also gives you, I don't know, 500 yards on the ground and like seven touchdowns because in the red zone, they're able to use his legs, right? And he's scrambling a bunch when things break down. I think that's within the realm of possibility. I just think I'd be more likely today to bank on Lawrence as a pocket passer looking like an MVP quarterback.

1:03:44Diante Lee:Hmm. That's a good argument because I am on the other side and I was thinking, all right, is he saying enough here to sway me? I don't think you did, but you made me think about it a little longer. I was looking at the very basic idea of Mike McDaniel has never had a quarterback like Justin Herbert and Justin Herbert has never had an OC like Mike McDaniel. Now you made the point that might not translate to monster numbers for Justin Herbert, but I feel like there is a ceiling there where we're looking at this going, okay, this is something special. Now they got questions. You mentioned it earlier in the pot.

1:04:20Diante Lee:It's not like it's the best supporting cast I've ever seen around Justin Herbert. They've got questions, interior offensive line. I look at the O-line questions. And I kind of think if you're a great offensive coordinator, you can coach around some of that. You know, McDaniel did do that in Miami for years there, where you looked at it on paper going into the season and you're like, is this the worst offensive line in the NFL? And all of a sudden they were putting up big numbers. It doesn't mean it's a guarantee that they can do it again, but I feel like he's at least shown that ability. They drafted the kid in the second round who they're going to move to guard.

1:04:53Diante Lee:We'll see if that ends up working out well or not. They've got two good offensive tackles there. So I feel like there's enough there where I would still bank on Herbert having that kind of ceiling over Trevor Lawrence. But man, with the way Liam Cohen and Trevor Lawrence figured it out kind of in year one together, there is a higher ceiling there for them together in year two. Same offensive coordinator, same system. He's got some pass catching talent on that team that's probably better than Justin Herbert. So I think you can make a case for either. I will go with Herbert. Deontay's going with Trevor Lawrence.

1:05:31Diante Lee:All right, Deontay, how many more do we have? One, two, where are we? We got two more. Two more. Okay. Come on, man. You know, I'm your Capati and King Trotting here. Listen, once I realized that the guest has done this before and is keeping track, then I'm like, I'm not doing this anymore. It's kind of like, you know, tours around the house, like, all right, someone else is doing that. All right. I'm not going to volunteer myself now to do that. I'm going to take that off my plate and let them do it. So that's all I'm doing here, Deontay. You understand. Spoken like a dad who has made a lot of trips to the mall and says, you know what?

1:06:01Ladies, you guys have got the shopping trips covered. I'm just going to go find a spot to sit for a little bit. Let's go on to number five.

1:06:10Diante Lee:Number five. All right. It was hard doing the AFC exercise because I felt like on one hand, I'm like MVP, Super Bowl contender. And then on the other hand, I'm like, What do you think about these bad situations? This one falls a little more in that category, Deontay. Who will have a better season in 2026? Geno Smith or Aaron Rodgers? And I want to compliment us. I don't even know how I'm ready. I'm uncomfortable. Yeah, well, that was the point of this one. But I want to compliment us for not doing a whole segment or doing 20 minutes on Aaron Rodgers or, hey, we got an emergency pod. No, all right.

1:06:45Diante Lee:He's back with the Steelers. Oh, we're just going to include him in this 10-question exercise. And that's all the time he gets on this podcast. Cause you know what? We really don't find it that interesting. All right. Gino Smith on the Jets or Aaron Rodgers on the Steelers, Deontay better season in 2026. I'm going to say Aaron Rodgers. And given how hard I've been on Rodgers, I can't believe how comfortable I am saying that, but God, I just, I cannot get the, I cannot get the images of the back end of the 2024 season for Geno in Seattle and then all of the 2025 season out of my head. That is just so stark to me.

1:07:28Whereas with Aaron Rodgers, I think it's more that his style of play is uninteresting right now. It's not as dynamic as Aaron Rodgers were used to. It's not a ceiling-raising style of play either. But I do think that for the most part, it's pretty stable. right as long as he's not under duress now when he gets pressured as a 42 year old there's no escapability anymore you're not getting the kind of scrambling you're not getting the kind of playmaking out of the pocket on a weekly basis anymore but at least just from a pre-snap processing i'm going to put the ball in the hands of my best receivers quickly and allow them to move the chains for me i trust that a whole lot more than geno smith it is just 100 etched in my mind watching him take a ton of sacks towards the end of 2024 in Seattle and then throwing a ton of picks in 2025 with Las Vegas and now you're being handed a team that doesn't really have much breakout talent at receiver for you to work with right now I'm not as in love with Garrett Wilson as some are I'm not as in love with the style of offense that they play before they made the change to Frank Reich.

1:08:34And the last time we saw Frank Reich, it looked very much like the NFL had kind of passed him by and his interest in the NFL had gone. How is Frank Reich in O.C.

1:08:43Diante Lee:in the year 2026? Exactly. He didn't strike me as somebody on the way out of Carolina where like, oh man, I just need a year to go sit on my couch and collect my thoughts and I'll be right back to it. That looked very much like a guy that was like, okay, I got my Super Bowl as an office coordinator. I've done all I can do. I got to be a head coach for a little bit. I think I'm ready to go hang out. And now he is back and I don't have much trust in what's going on in New York around him organizationally and specifically with that offense and the supporting cast around Geno Smith. So I'll say Aaron Rodgers here pretty comfortably, but I don't think that either of those guys are going to be above average quarterbacks this season.

1:09:18Diante Lee:Yeah. I mean, looking at this one, when I came up with the question, I'm like, man, these are tough situations, you know, right? At one point was a great offensive coordinator. That was a while ago. And to your point, I don't, you know, it would be a, one of the surprises of the season if we're like Frank Reich's back, look at this creative stuff that the Jets are doing. Maybe it'll happen, but I don't think we can project that to happen. They got a lot of young players where on paper, you're looking at it going, okay, Omar Cooper Jr., Kenyon Sadiq, Mason Taylor, but you kind of have no idea whether those guys are going to be good or not.

1:09:53Diante Lee:So it's Garrett Wilson. We've also been talking about the promise of this young offensive line and how they've had these highly drafted guys that are supposed to turn the corner if they can all get healthy. We haven't seen that really happen yet either. Yeah, you're right. It has a chance you could talk me into, hey, this offensive line is going to be really good, but they have to prove it. I don't think the potential is fake. I just think it has to be proven. I do see it. I do see a version of this where you say, hey, this isn't a bad situation for a quarterback to be Now, Geno Smith is 35. Aaron Rodgers is 42.

1:10:28Diante Lee:When you think about it, you're like, he's seven years older than Geno Smith. That's kind of crazy. So they got Michael Pittman Jr. in the offseason. They drafted a couple guys, Jeremy Bernard, the wide receiver, Maxi Onichor, the offensive lineman pretty early. I'm not bullish on either. I just felt like maybe there's a chance for Geno's 2026 to not look as bad as 2025 versus Aaron Rodgers' 2026 to look better than 2025, if that makes sense. I'm just like, at this age, in this situation, I'm like, I don't think it's going to look better than last year. And I could talk myself into Geno's upcoming season at least looking better than it did last year, even if it's not great.

1:11:15Diante Lee:But I don't think either fan base is all that excited about either quarterback. All right. I think we're going to 10. Is that right, Deontay? 10 is what's left. That's right. All right. So I didn't... Here's the deal. I'll take a little behind the scenes. When I'm putting the questions together, I'm like, I want to try to get to as many teams as possible on an exercise like this. And I noticed, you know what? I don't have anything on the Indianapolis Colts. And I don't think Deontay is going to pick the Colts for any of these other open-ended questions. So let me get a Colts question in. Now he surprised me and picked them to make the playoffs, but you know what?

1:11:49Diante Lee:I'm asking the question anyway. It's week one, Deontay, of the 2027 season. So now we're looking far ahead. The Indianapolis Colts are about to take the field at Lucas Oil Stadium. Which of the following three people are in attendance in Colts gear for this game? GM Chris Ballard Coach Shane Steichen and quarterback Daniel Jones so again not this week one the 2027 week one so you're projecting now we have to see how much conviction Deontay has or you know he's a man who is capable of alright well percentages wise let me follow up on that conversation we had because I think there's a lot of pressure on the decision makers in this organization when you look at ownership there in Indianapolis.

1:12:40Diante Lee:And to Deontay's point, if they make the playoffs, all right, that's one thing. If they don't make the playoffs, Deontay, this would be four straight seasons for Shane Steichen without making the playoffs, which it's almost unprecedented for a head coach to keep his job when you don't make the playoffs in your first four seasons. This would be one playoff win in 10 years for Chris Ballard if they don't have a playoff win this year and six straight seasons for the GM without making the playoffs. So it really does kind of hinge on, do you think they're going to be an eight-win team or do you think they're going to be a 10-win team?

1:13:16Diante Lee:Because that very much could determine the fate of the three people that I mentioned, Shane Steichen, Chris Ballard, and Daniel Jones. What do you think? Who's in a Colts uniform or Colts garb in 2027? I think, I feel confident that Daniel Jones will be back in 2027, if for no other reason that the investment made in trying to maximize this particular iteration of this roster does extend to 2027, right? They went out and wagered their 2027 first-round pick that they're not going to need it. It was going to be a low pick because they expected to be a contending team for a couple of years, right?

1:13:56At the height of their hot start last season. Chris Ballard, I probably feel the least confident in. And then with Shane Steichen, it's interesting because I think the way that I'm framing this question around Steichen is more so how many wins can he get where he'd miss the playoffs and still be safe? I think that that's probably the most intriguing way for me to attack that. I think if they go 10-7, right? You think about that first year where I think they had Gardner Minshew who had to start the last game of the season and are playing against Houston and fighting for their lives to get in. He had the guy open too.

1:14:28Diante Lee:Yeah, I remember him. It was there. It was 100 % there. if they had another season like that where you take it down to the wire and you know they maybe they're winning their game and they've got to hope that jacksonville loses theirs for them to get the tie break to be able to make the playoffs i think i could see a world where the colts keep him around for one last ride as a head coach if this is some eight and nine maybe you only miss a playoff by a game but you go eight and nine it's very disappointing again your team is banged up you don't maximize this roster enough, things feel stale, I think he'll be out.

1:15:03So I think that if you're telling me to power rank the three by likelihood, I'd actually probably put Daniel Jones first. I will put Shane Sykin second and then Chris Ballard third because I just think that if you're just viewing the record, the long record that Ballard has as a GM, you're going to really struggle, I think, to find what picks, what contracts, what trades, etc. that he has made that has materially changed the Colts' future, right? He was handed, for lack of a better term, a turd sandwich with Andrew Luck retiring, right? When he was expecting to have him as a franchise quarterback for a long time.

1:15:39Which they remind everyone of still. I mean, that's the first thing. Anytime anybody brings up his job security, the first thing they bring up is the fact that they weren't expecting to be in this quarterback situation in the first place. But you do have to wear the fact that when you had a top five pick, you picked Anthony Richardson. and basically before the end of his second season, you guys were pretty clear on the fact that you didn't think that you could win with him long-term. You have to own that as a GM, right? And I think that for Shane Steichen, he can maybe slip by that if they have another strong offensive season, if Daniel Jones looks again like an above-average starter, if Jonathan Taylor looks good, even if they don't make the playoffs, if they're a high-level offense and they're able to win games against a Houston, against a Jacksonville, and they're competitive, looking to make it in as a sixth or seventh seed in the AFC, I think he can get one more year.

1:16:27I think the person whose seat should be the hottest right now is Chris Ballard's.

1:16:32Diante Lee:All right. So it sounds like you're saying Jones and Steichen back you feel good about. Yeah. Ballard being back you don't feel good about. So you're saying two of the three return. I'm going to go 0 for 3. And it is a very, it's a thin line because I don't think they're going to be terrible. I just think they're kind of stuck in that mediocre range. They've won eight or nine games each of the past three seasons. They look more like an eight-win team to me this year. And I just feel like if they're an eight-win team again, that ownership is going to look at that and be like, all right, this group we've assembled here, it's not working.

1:17:10Diante Lee:Let's move in a much bigger direction with my vision versus my dad's vision there with the Ursae. So let's see. But I think they have a chance. I mean, they are really one of those teams. Like, it's always stupid to me when we get to week 18 and there's some national report, like so-and-so's jobs on the line based on the outcome of this game. I'm like, that's not, you shouldn't be making decisions. That's a horrible process. and I don't know if it's exactly going to come to that but I do think it's going to come down to maybe a couple games here if they get into the playoffs versus being out of the playoffs whether these people will keep their jobs or not and Jones coming off that injury we'll see what he looks like here for the Colts that was the Kapadia 10 AFC version I feel like we hit on almost every team over the last two episodes now the Dolphins did we have?

1:18:04Diante Lee:I'll say the Dolphins and I kind of left out in the cold a little bit. You had a little something on the Dolphins when I gave the, you know, who's going to have the most wins here. But yes, we don't have a Dolphins specific question, but we got to a bunch of these teams. But listen, we still got time before training camp. We got time before the start of the season. There will be plenty of time to revisit some of these takes and revisit some of these questions. His name is Deontay Lee. You can check him out on The Ringer. I'm Shiel Kapadia. Thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing Stefano Sanchez on video and additional production supervision by Connor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopal.

1:18:37Diante Lee:We will talk to you next time on The Ringer NFL Show.

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