Belief Meter: Checking in on the Bears, Broncos, Chargers, and More!

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2:06Welcome to the Ringer NFL Show. I'm Shiel Kapadia. Today we are breaking out the old belief meter. Who do you believe in more? The Jaguars or the Chargers as an AFC sleeper? The Steelers or the Bears as a playoff team? The Packers or the Broncos as a Super Bowl contender? Just a little check-in on some teams we haven't discussed this week as we look ahead to week 15 and the final four weeks of the regular season. My guest today is Dan Hanses from the Heed the Call podcast. He was on with us a couple months ago. We had a lot of fun, so we brought him back. Let's take a break. We come back with Dan Hanses.

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3:28All right, we are back here with Dan Hanses from the Heed the Call podcast. We are asking, Dan, who do you believe in more? You know, I got some matchups here. You can rip me if you think these matchups are terrible. Like, Shield, that was way too easy. You need to do a better job, but I tried to come up with ones that won't be too easy to answer. So let's start with the first one. Okay. Who do you believe in more, Dan, the Jaguars or the Chargers as an AFC sleeper? So the idea here, which I'm sure, you know, you, you have talked about is that this is a weird season in the AFC and it's kind of wide open.

4:04And maybe there's room for a team to be playing in the AFC championship where we say, wait, how did that team kind of get there? Jaguars or Chargers, which of them is more likely to be the team that does that? Well, let's see. I mean, I think it's the Chargers. But let me just start with the Jags here. Okay. Because I know what's happening here. I know how we all get in a football cognizante. We get caught up with things. And I know what has everyone hot about the Jaguars. Obviously, their record and they've been winning games. But what has people hot is social media and the Colts coming with an all out blitz and Trevor Lawrence checks into a different protection.

4:48Then he rolls out blindly squares his shoulders, throws a dot to Tim Patrick on the sideline. And now everyone seems to be under the opinion that Liam Cohn has fixed Trevor Lawrence and this is who he is now. And he's finally going to live up to his draft stock. And maybe he will. But I am going to be on the side of four or five years of evidence that we will continue to get inconsistent play from Lawrence, and he hasn't indeed fully turned the corner. And that's the only reason why I'm going to side with the Chargers, okay? And I believe it was the Irish playwright, George Bernard Shaw, who said, Sheel, as I'm watching the game Chargers-Eagles, and I'm seeing what Jim Harbaugh is luring the Eagles into exactly the game that the Chargers like to play.

5:46Shaw said, I learned long ago never to wrestle with a pig. You get dirty, and besides, the pig likes it. The Chargers are built for the playoffs. They are built to win ugly, low scoring, win the special teams battle, win time of possessions, get the timely turnover, and then the quarterback makes big plays when it counts. I really like the cut of the jib of these chargers and they like to get dirty and roll in the slop. So that is my choice there. You're going with the, first of all, I love the Jaguars point because you and I are on the same page. You know, the hipsters, the film grinders, they needed like a cold shower after that.

6:29Oh my God. Trevor Lawrence performance. It was a good game and a couple good games. And that throw was brilliant. Nice throw. But me and you have the, but yeah, I'm going with the, but, uh, as well there with the Jaguars. What do you think of their whole, um, you know, nobody respects us and that's okay. You know, I'm reading the cover. No, no, we got a chip on our shoulder. You guys already get, is this a, you know, because on one hand I'm like, well, yeah, I have kind of been saying all year, I don't really respect you. I think you're kind of a dumb team and you're a fun team and you know, you can win some games, but I don't really take you seriously, but I do find they're getting a little annoying for me.

7:08You know what I'm saying? Are you there with me? Usually, not exactly. Yes and no. They are a little bit annoying, but they have a point. I think a lot of us have completely disregarded this team. Everybody fell in love with the Colts, and rightfully so, in the beginning of the season. And now in the last month or so, everyone's been hot about the Texans and talking about them as maybe a Super Bowl sleeper. and meanwhile the Jaguars were just out here chopping wood, not the wood that the old coach put in the locker room that led to the puncher putting an axe into the top of his foot at that time.

7:40That was a crazy story. Remember that? But I think the Jaguars do have a point that everyone's expecting, are the Colts going to come back and now what's Phillip Rivers going to do or the Texans like, hi, we're actually in first place. So yes, they have a point, but also there's a little bit of AFC South tax as well, I think, in the national discourse. about teams and they kind of get forgotten a little bit in the South, but that doesn't matter ultimately. Right. So yeah, they're not wrong. You're right. They're not wrong. They have a pretty easy schedule here. The rest of the way, jets, Broncos, Colts, Titans, they got a good chance to go three and one, uh, or certainly two and two down the stretch.

8:18And that will put them at 11 or 12 wins. You know what? I did this exercise as I was preparing. And I thought, went in thinking, I know just in my gut, like I respect the chargers infrastructure board, right? Jim Harbaugh, Justin Herbert. But then I looked at it and this Chargers team, they go at Chiefs, at Cowboys, Texans, and at Broncos. So they have actually the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL. If you look at the betting markets and I respect what Herbert did with the one hand and I don't remember a Chargers receiver being open that entire game. He's basically just running and putting them on his back along with that defense.

8:57But I don't know that it's sustainable against that schedule, you know, they really, with their offensive line. And so I actually ended this exercise going, I actually think maybe like for as much as we're kind of joking about the Trevor Lawrence thing, like, could he get hot, you know, for a few weeks there in January? I think I might, I actually feel better about them. I would actually go Jaguars in this exercise. Yeah. I guess they have a clear path to January. Right. I'd have to take a look at their schedule, but you, as you just laid out, I just, I guess I do trust. I remember we had Matt Money Smith on our show, who's the voice of the Chargers back in August.

9:32And he was like, man, I think people are sleeping on not just this team a little bit, but the coaching staff that Jim Harbaugh has built here. This team has an advantage every week because of what the infrastructure that they have built. And I think that with having the quarterback they have, the skill players that are still there, and I think they're going to grind it out because that's the type of team they are and get the wins that will get them in the dance. And then I think they're very well suited for January football. Will Herbert's body survive? That's the question. I mean, he took a pounding in that game.

10:06I think the highest pressure rate of the entire season and 68 % or something. That's crazy. I mean, that, and it felt like that. It honestly felt higher than that. It was like, I don't remember a drop back where he just back there. All right, let me survey the field and get a pass off. And then I know the replay That was an important game, obviously. But at the same time, was I the only one that was watching that game? I was like, this guy shouldn't be playing Herbert. He couldn't protect himself. And I guess it's a bit of a slight against Trey Lance that Harbaugh was so locked in on this. But it just felt like it was a very risky proposition.

10:40And they're pretty fortunate he got out of it alive, I think. Well, Harbaugh does love the legend making of Justin Herbert. I mean, that's been since day one. He is very excited about it. So to him, I think he told the broadcast, right? Aikman said Harbaugh viewed this as, let's see what his pain tolerance is, which is, you know, another reminder that these guys are built a little bit differently, but I'll speak for myself. You might be built that way. He's old school too. Harbaugh's an old school football guy. He's like, the things he probably played through getting pounded into rock hard, artificial turf for 15 years, this is nothing.

11:12Nothing for him. There you go. All right, so we disagree on that one. You're going Chargers, I'm going Jaguars. All right, next one here. Who do you believe in more? The Steelers or the Bears as a playoff team? So right now, Steelers are the four seed. They're at seven and six, leading the AFC North. The Bears in just a wild swing. One loss, and they go from the one seed before last weekend to now the seventh seed after that loss against the Green Bay Packers. So who's going to hold on to that playoff? I like this one because I see what you did here, Sheila. This is a trick question. because the Bears are definitely a better team than the Steelers, in my opinion.

11:50I agree with that. But who's going to make the playoffs? The path is perilous for the Bears if they trip up at all. And their schedule, I just looked at it before we started. They just came off the Lambeau game, which, oh man, if he could have just, if Caleb floats that ball or throws it at a different angle or runs it and they win that game. Everything's different. But he didn't. So they lost a big game on the road in Green Bay. And then in two weeks, they play Green Bay at home. And then they play at San Francisco. And then they're home against Detroit. And then there's one game coming up this week, in week 15, at home against the Cleveland Browns, what might be the most trappiest of all trap games that has ever existed.

12:42If they stub their toe in this game, And I'm not saying they will, but Cleveland's a weird team. Cleveland's not a good team, but Cleveland has a young quarterback who's doing some things, and their defense had a bad week last week, but their defense has actually single-handedly won games and wrecked games that even the team has lost. Don't overlook that team because then you could go into a free fall. And Chicago fans don't want to hear that because it's like, this is finally the year things are supposed to happen for us. Win this game. So I'm going to go with the Bears just because I just like them better as a team and I think they'll win this game and then find a way to win one of those other games and get in.

13:18I believe they have a 70 % chance per the Athletic to get in right now. But yes, trappiest of all trap games scare me. The Steelers don't do much for me. It's the AFC North. I get that. You just mentioned it. How do we feel about the Athletic kind of cornering that playoff simulator market? Every podcast host, we're all on that thing now every day, I feel like maybe we missed a little business opportunity there. Whatever happened to the Elias Sports Bureau? Yeah, what happened to the Elias Sports Bureau? We got to get Elias back in the game. They need to be jump-started. Yeah, they have not only has the Athletics seized this win playoff probability thing, they have flow charts.

13:59They've basically challenged the entire industry and I don't care about who I source. So whatever is in front of me, I'll trust the New York Times. Great tool. I mean, it looks beautiful. You do the win-loss. Yeah, I'm doing the same thing. as well. No, but I, it's, it's a great point because the bears almost have to play a mini playoff tournament before the actual playoff start. I mean, cause those last three games, Packers at Niners lions, it's like between the Packers Niners and lions, they're not all, I'm sorry, between the bears Niners and lions, they're not all going to make the playoffs.

14:32And so, you know, the bears are going to get their chance to stamp their ticket, but, uh, those are not easy games. Now I feel like you mentioned the Caleb throw at the end of last game. I almost came out of that game feeling better about the bears, even with the loss than I did going in. I looked at it and say, man, they hung with the Packers the entire game. Like you said, they came down to one throw. They didn't look overmatched. They kind of went blow for blow against them. So I feel good about this bears team, but man, if I'm answering the question about who I feel better about going to the playoffs, I think I go Steelers.

15:07All they got to do is hold off this Ravens team that hasn't shown me anything. And the Bears have to hold off much better teams. So the Steelers can almost back in here if they go nine and eight, you know, because I don't think the Ravens have it. I don't know how you feel about it, but I don't think the Ravens have it. So if you go nine and eight, it would be painful, but I feel like the Steelers actually have the better chance here. Is there any scenario? I know this is stupid, but I love Joe Burrow. He's my guy. Yeah. Is there any chance that there's still a path that these, the Steelers and Ravens both flopping down the stretch here.

15:42I know they play each other once, so somebody's getting a win there. But the Steelers, as an example, use them as an example. What are they, seven and six right now? They have home Dolphins, very much a losable game where the Dolphins are playing, obviously. At Detroit, yes. At Cleveland, absolutely not a gimme in my eyes. And then the Ravens, I don't see any easy dubs on that schedule for Pittsburgh. And we know Baltimore is allergic to any sense of momentum at this point after what we've seen the last couple weeks. That's crazy talk, I know. But just keep an eye on it. Like the Bengals who blew it, obviously, because – and I think they got jinxed a little bit.

16:23Who was it? Was it Nansen Romo? And they're like, Jim, look at this. They're actually favored in the rest of their games when they were up 10 in the fourth quarter. It's like you know what the Bengals are going to do. They're going to win the rest of their games. So they will, because that's how the Bengals close last season. That's right. They just win relentlessly and they say, oh, well, if we just didn't, you know, fuck it up as we always do, things would have been different. Maybe. I'm going to, you know what? Screw it. I'm picking the Bengals to win the division. Talk myself into it. Now I'll shut up.

16:50Okay. You know, as you were talking, as you said, is there any chance? And I go, well, now I can, we just, you know, plug the good playoff simulator. Let me check. So if they win out, if the Bengals win their remaining games, they have a 29 % chance to make it, which I mean, that's not bad now. Do you believe in them? Better than the Chiefs. Do you believe in them to win out? So it would get interesting if the Bengals beat the Ravens this weekend and the Steelers lose that Monday night game to the Dolphins. Then, see, this is why you're a veteran in this game, Hanses, because if that happens next week, everyone's going to be, well, watch out for the Bengals.

17:26We thought it was over. It's not over. You got ahead of it the week before that potentially happens. See, this is why I've respected you for so much. Thank you. And in fairness, everyone was thrown off the set because Joe Burrow even pulled the old Rex Ryan 2009 move in the press conference on Sunday. He was like, yeah, he was talking about the season in the past tense and he had packed up the boat. But, you know, it's a weird season and Lamar Jackson, again, is missing practice this week. It's very clear he is not close to the same player. I don't know. 9-8 wins the division, obviously, but maybe 8-9 does.

18:04Yeah. So they got a chance. It's a, it's not over. I think we all are like, we don't want, nobody wants to pick the Steelers. No one feels good about, Hey, the Steelers are going to the playoffs. Like that is not the take you want to stand behind percentage wise. You know, it feels like they have a very good chance, but these are all flawed teams and weird things happen in the last month of the season all the time. So I like your little zag there. Maybe the Bengals aren't out of it. I mean, they looked so good for most of that game. I still think they're the best team in the division right now, but they can't keep losing because they just make me sound like an idiot, but they can't close out games, and their defense constantly lets them down.

18:40We all know the story. It was like a horrible five minutes they had. Who among us hasn't had a horrible five minutes? That shouldn't screw your whole postseason chances. So let's see if the Bengals can come back there. All right, let's take a break. We come back. I got one more for Hanses. This episode is brought to you by Whole Foods Market. it. Spring is here, so celebrate it with fresh, juicy, seasonal produce and some very tasty limited time flavors. New Whole Foods Market Peach Apricot Rose Italian Soda. Perfect for a picnic or brunch, as is their trending mango yuzu chantilly cake. But if you're on the go, new 365 strawberry pretzels make a great sweet snack.

19:20That sounds delicious. Get savings with the yellow sales signs store-wide and everyday low prices on 365 brand items. Enjoy the fresh flavors of spring. Save at Whole Foods Market. All right, we are back on the Ringer NFL show. All right, last one for you. Who do you believe in more as a Super Bowl team? Dan, the Packers or the Broncos? And so these are two teams. The odds are pretty similar. They play this weekend, obviously should be a fun matchup. I feel like you mentioned the cognoscenti. I feel like the Packers, you know, everybody's like, yeah, I could see it with the Packers. And the Broncos are a team that I'll speak for myself.

20:01I continue to be like, I'm not sure. I'm not sure about this Broncos team. I'm not there yet. Yet they're in a great spot, 11 and two, currently the one seed in the AFC. So where do you fall on this one, Packers or Broncos as a Super Bowl team? I'm Packers on this one. And I don't want to dismiss the Broncos because there's a reason why they've won all these games. They have a great ability to close. And the quarterbacks at the front of the line were that, where he could look like a totally different guy in the last 15 minutes. I just think that type of playing style and that hot and cold is not the stuff of champions.

20:38That's the stuff of a team coming off of five getting picked off in the divisional round. I'm not there to trust them. Whereas I've seen enough from the Packers now, both in the beginning of the season, but more importantly, in the last three or four weeks where it's like you can see it. You see exactly the path that they can have. And I think Jordan Love is playing some of the best football he's played in the NFL right now. We see that Micah Parsons has done exactly what they wanted him to do and being that closer on the defensive side of the ball. They can run the football. I think the Rams are the most complete team in the NFL.

21:15And I love what Seattle's doing, even if I obviously, I think it's fair to question what happens to the quarterback in a big spot in January. We'll see. But the Packers, after the Rams for me, are the most balanced team to me in the league. And for that reason, I just think their consistency puts them ahead of the Broncos if we're talking about the big game. I had the same thing written down. they're just one of the most balanced teams in the NFL. Like when you're watching these Packers games and you see Micah Parsons in the fourth quarter in a big spot and like, Oh my gosh, how did he do that?

21:49And they're going to the replay and they're showing you where he lined up and Oh, they got it matched up against the guard here. It's just like, I can picture that on a January broadcast where we're just like, it's a tight game in the fourth quarter and they find a way to kind of free him up. And it can, I mean, it was the biggest preseason story. It's been a big story all season long. Michael Parsons on the Packers, and I could see it being a big story in January. So they got a good shot here. I mean, they are, they got at Broncos at bears, Ravens and Viking. So they have a very good shot to finish 12, four and one, probably not going to be the one seed they're behind the Rams and the Seahawks, but man, I like their chances in a playoff format.

22:29And I hear what you're saying with the Broncos. What I'm with you, everything you said, I agree with, I've agreed with. What are the chances that a month from now, we say Bo Nix got a little hot in the playoffs and they look like a different team. And this was the team that everyone doubted, but all they did was win every single week. And maybe they shouldn't have been 11 and two, but they've got a great coach and Sean Payton. They've got a great defense. And even though no one actually believed that this team could get to the Super Bowl. Here they are in Levi's Stadium facing whoever from the NFC.

23:05Is that a storyline that you can see many of us saying a month, two months from now that, all right, I think we were a little bit wrong about the Broncos, a lot wrong about the Broncos? Yes, I cannot count out them leveling up another team with a great coaching staff, led, of course, by Peyton and Knicks. I think part of the reason why they've had a lot of these comebacks that they've had in the fourth quarter as he does for whatever it is certain athletes are touched by it the the moment kind of unlocks something different in them and they never shrink in those spots so putting nicks in the in the playoffs and seeing how he operates yeah maybe the offense finds a level of consistency they've gotten the jk dobbins injury i thought was something that was going to hurt them but they the rookie has stepped in and really harvey has found he's found a role there and then the defense is there you know what do you i guess to be a Super Bowl champion, you have to have something that's your true calling card and you need your closer.

24:01Their pass rush with Sertan in the back end, it's kind of all there. Can they avoid being down 24-10 in the fourth quarter of the divisional round? If they then flip the switch, does that work when you're against another team that's already won a playoff game and is smelling the AFC title game? They have to lose that slow start mentality because I don't think that plays on the biggest stage. Yeah. You know, you go in and you're like, I don't totally trust their passing game. You know, they don't. If you look at it just statistically, I think they produce explosive pass plays at the fifth lowest rate and they go through stretches where you look at it and you're like, this doesn't look like a team that's going to be playing in the Super Bowl.

24:43I made the comp. What do you think of this? I made the comp earlier this week to Mike Sando that is there some version of the 2024 Eagles with this 2025 Broncos team where we say The defense is great. They're winning a lot of games. The passing game, you kind of always had some questions about, but maybe they just, you know, if they get the one seed and they're playing at home, you got to win two games at home. Bo Nix has to be good, good enough for two games at home where they can get to the Super Bowl. Now they don't have the same offensive firepower that that Eagles team had last year. But other than that, what do you, I mean, you could tell me if you think it's a trash comparison, then please.

25:19I mean, that Eagles team was, by the time we got to the Super Bowl, I was like, wow, this team is special with the way they're set up. And Barkley alone kind of made them different, what type of year he had. They don't obviously have that in their backfield. But I see what you're saying. They're a team where all the components are there. The mix hasn't always been right. But if you can just get it locked in for three or four weeks, you could be a champion. I think that's a fair one. And I would imagine Broncos fans would sign off on that comparison as well. That's a good one. I like that. I'm, you know, I'm just trying to get on their good side because I've been down since the preseason.