Bold Predictions for the 2025 NFL Season

0:00Oh, welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia, flying solo because it is time to go on the record with some bold predictions for the 2025 NFL season. That's right. Week one is here. We got a game Thursday night. We got a game Friday night. We got games on Sunday. And so we got to go on the record with some bold predictions. Now, here's the deal with the bold predictions. I've been doing these for years now, and you got to thread the needle. Because what happens every time is half the audience rips you for not being bold enough. The other half of the audience rips you for picking stuff that has no chance of happening.

0:40So I'm just telling you right now, these vary in boldness. Some are bolder than others. They are all things that I actually believe in. And for the most part, I think these are things that we have not totally covered on the podcast so far. So we're going to get to that. Quick reminder, spread the word. Again, the season is here. So if you're enjoying the show, tell your friends, tell your neighbors, tell strangers on the street, follow us. Ringer NFL on YouTube, Ringer NFL Show on Instagram. The daily pods have been a lot of fun so far and we are just getting started. All right, let's take a break.

1:16We come back and we get to our bold predictions for the 2025 NFL season. This is the Ringer NFL show presented by FanDuel and the NFL is officially back. So if you're going to be in it, be in it with FanDuel. They've got the goods, futures, live betting, SGPs, your way bets, all of it. The app's clean, it's fast. And yeah, when you win, you get paid instantly, which is nice because Sunday patience doesn't exist. So get your bets in, build something bold and make every game feel bigger. Download the FanDuel app or head to fanduel.com slash ringer NFL to get started. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming.

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3:39All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show. Bold prediction number one. Are you ready? The Chiefs will not be playing on championship weekend. That's right. They will be watching at home. Now, since Patrick Mahomes became the starter, the Chiefs have gotten to at least the championship round every single season. I am telling you that the streak ends this year. Now, sometimes in this business, I will admit you have to be willing to look like a complete moron. I've gotten comfortable with that. And so I'm telling you, I'm not doing this for content. I'm not doing this for some kind of hot take.

4:20I am fully aware, given recent history, that this may look very, very foolish by the time we get to that championship weekend in January. However, let me tell you how I got here. I was going through the process of projecting playoff teams. And so I go all the way through one through seven division winners, wild card, who's winning in the first round, what are the matchups in the divisional round, what does it look like on championship weekend. And I had the Bills and the Ravens as the top two seeds in the AFC. I had the Chiefs going to Baltimore in the divisional round. Now, I know the Chiefs can win in Baltimore.

4:59Yes, we have seen that before. They've done it. But ultimately, I really think that the Ravens have a better team this year. I think they're more well-rounded. I think they can win in different ways. And I think it's going to be a Ravens-Bills AFC Championship with Lamar or Josh Allen finally breaking through. That's right. This is the Sunday night matchup in week one. I think that is going to be the game we see months from now, championship weekend in January, the same matchup we see here in week one. So I've been on the record. I think it's going to be the Bills in the Super Bowl this year. I can't tell you.

5:40I feel like super strong about it, that it's going to be them and not the Ravens. I think it could just as easily be the Ravens. If I'm being honest, I think the Ravens are a good pick to get to the Super Bowl also this year. I just have the Bills. But that's what I think is going to happen this year in the playoffs. Now, having said that, yes, there are very clear reasons how this goes wrong for your boy. One is that the Chiefs do what they always do. Maybe they lull us to sleep, but we get to January and they find a way. That is kind of what happened last. I mean, that's what happens every year.

6:14We spend all this energy and time talking about the Chiefs and, hey, it's not going to be, yes, I'm falling into the same trap again. What do you want from me? What is it? Old habits die hard. That's right. So that's one possibility is that maybe the Chiefs don't look great all regular season, but you know what? They find answers in the playoffs and they still get to the Super Bowl. The other possibility is maybe Patrick Mahomes just goes gore stir on the league this season. Maybe the moves they made in the offseason work out. The O-line is better. He reminds everyone that he is still far and away the best quarterback in the NFL.

6:50That is within the range of possible outcomes. I just can't quite get there. So much seems to hinge on the ability of rookie left tackle Josh Simmons to perform at a high level right away. It's been a big story this summer. And listen, maybe that will happen. I know he had a good summer. I know the arrow is pointing up. I just think people get carried away in the summer with plugging rookies in and assuming that they're going to be good when the truth is, if you look at it historically, nearly 40 % of first round picks don't even start 10 games as rookies. Think about that. nearly 40%. And I'm not even saying start 10 games and play at a high level.

7:32I'm saying start 10 games, period. So with rookies, I just always need to see it. And the bottom line is I think the Ravens and Bills are better than the Chiefs this year. I think the Chiefs are vulnerable. Maybe they find a way. That's the expectation. But that's why these are bold predictions. and my first bold prediction I'm saying for the first time, Patrick Mahomes is at home watching the AFC Championship game. Okay, bold prediction number two. We're gonna go positive on this one. The Seattle Seahawks are going to have the best defense in the entire NFL. Now, there are a lot of good options to choose from here for NFL's best defense.

8:15Eagles should be good. Broncos, really strong. Texans, I like a lot. Vikings, Ravens. You can go in a number of different directions, but I have got the Seattle Seahawks. And here's why. When I look at these things, I look at three factors, coach, talent, and scheme. Now we'll see whether Mike McDonald is a great head coach, but I do think he is a great defensive coach. If you look at his last three defenses, two in Baltimore, one in Seattle, all of them have finished in the top 10. I genuinely believe in Mike McDonald's ability to maximize the talent he has to work with on defense. And really, you saw this last year.

8:57I mean, if you were paying attention, second half of last season, that Seahawks defense was really coming on strong once guys started to figure out what McDonald was trying to do. So you take that, you fast forward to this year, and from a personnel perspective, they're basically running it back with the same group. And they've also made some key additions. They drafted a safety Nick Imanwari in the second round. Now, I know some of you are yelling right now at me. You're saying, Sheil, you just told us that rookies are unpredictable. That's true. But he's a wild card. At least he's a fun wild card.

9:33That if he hits, it's going to make a difference, but they don't necessarily have to count on him. So that's Imanwari. They signed veteran defensive end Demarcus Lawrence. I like that signing. Leonard Williams was one of the best defensive linemen in the NFL last season. Really had a career year in the secondary. They've got guys like Devon Witherspoon, Julian Love, guys who know the scheme well. I love the continuity they've got back there. So it's not perfect. They've got question marks at some spots, but that's pretty much every defense in the NFL. The other thing the Seahawks have going for them, with defense, there's always kind of of that worry that, hey, in the offseason, opposing coaches are going to figure out your scheme.

10:14They're going to figure out how to attack you. But I don't really think that applies as much to the Seahawks because Mike McDonald has shown this ability to be flexible and teach a lot of different things and switch up his game plans based on opponent. In other words, it's not like the Seahawks just, hey, we major in this one thing. We're going to do it better than you. We don't care if you know it. No, that's not how they play defense. They change. They adjust. They do different things. They're hard to prepare for. And so in my opinion, the Seahawks have all the pieces in place that I look for when trying to identify a top tier unit.

10:49So overall, this is a really interesting team, the Seahawks. You know, when we get this close to the season, I always start to think it's like, I wonder what I'm going to be most wrong about. You know, that's what's fun about sports. You say what you think is going to happen, but you know, there are going to be things that you're wrong about, things that surprise you. And I have been pretty adamant that I don't think the Seahawks offensive experiment with Sam Darnold, new OC, Clint Kubiak, and a potentially improved offensive line is going to work out that great. But I do love this defense. And while I have the Seahawks just on the outside looking in for a playoff berth, there's a scenario where the offense actually doesn't have to be great.

11:30You know, maybe it just has to be average. Okay. And the defense leads the way to the postseason. So that's what I'm paying attention to with the Seahawks. But again, I've got them as the number one defense in the NFL in 2025. All right, bold prediction number three. Sorry, I got to be a hater here. Mike McDaniel doesn't last a year in Miami. Now, take it easy. This isn't mean-spirited Dolphins fans. This is just looking around the league and trying to identify who could be in some trouble. It's a worthwhile exercise. Every preseason, it's good to look, hey, who's really kind of coaching for their jobs this season?

12:10Now, last year, I thought Nick Sirianni was one of those guys in Philadelphia, and we saw how that turned out. So you still have agency in how these things turn out, even if you are on the hot seat. But all we can do is project based on the information we have at this very moment. And when you go through the exercise, McDaniel really stands out. Who else could you point to? Maybe Shane Steichen in Indianapolis, the Giants, could they clean house if things fall apart? But I looked around and McDaniel really felt like the top candidate. And let me be clear here. It's not because he's the worst coach out of all these coaches or he's a disaster.

12:48He's 28 and 23 as a head coach. He's made the playoffs twice in three seasons. And coaches have kind of cycled in and out of Miami and not had a lot of success. So it's not that he's been a train wreck. He's actually had some success there with the Dolphins, but I'm trying to project. And this feels like a train that could go off the tracks in a hurry. Being a head coach is about more than just scheming. And we know McDaniels can scheme. We know that if he were fired, I think there would be a number of head coaches around the league that would want to add him to their staff. So it's not about that.

13:24It's about more than that. And things just feel off in Miami going into the season. I think it really starts with Tyreek Hill. It goes back to the end of last season. When he takes himself out of the game in week 18, he indicates he wants to be traded. He later comes back. Then he apologizes. Tua says, hey, Hill, he's got to work to rebuild his trust with his teammates. And then just in recent days here, Dolphins chose captains and Hill was not chosen for the first time in his career in Miami. me. So it just feels to me like a situation with the Dolphins where are we sure Tyreek Hill is still on that team after the trade deadline?

14:06I'm not. I don't know how that's going to go for Tyreek Hill. So that's one part of it. Defensively, the Dolphins, they just have a banged up secondary, specifically cornerback. They had an assistant coach in Ryan Crow, who is on leave following an arrest last week. And don't forget that this is the organization that they parted ways with Vic Fangio last offseason. And then Fangio goes to the Eagles and he helps them win a Super Bowl. I mean, that's the type of thing that NFL owners take notice of. So that's another thing. I was kind of looking at that defense. And it's not that they did a bad job with their coordinator last year.

14:48I thought he did, actually did a good job, Anthony Weaver. But it's just you look at those things and you wonder how that defense is going to look in 2025. And then the last thing, I look at their backup quarterback situation, which this really, this would make me furious, honestly, if I were a Dolphins fan, that you have a starter in Tua that when he starts, you win a lot of games, but you know, or you don't know, but you can project that based on history, he might miss around at least four games per season. So you should really be buttoned up in that backup quarterback situation. and they're going with Zach Wilson.

15:23And if you want to talk me into Zach Wilson, that's fine. I'm not going to believe it, but you can try to talk me into Zach Wilson. And so having him as the backup plan, that makes me very nervous. So all these, it's a lot of stuff that's adding up. And again, it feels like a team that's going in the wrong direction. Now, maybe they look okay early on, schedule isn't that bad early, but then they have this stretch, weeks nine to 11, where they have the Ravens, the Bills, the Commanders before they're by, One Thursday night game, one international game. So two standalone games on national TV. And I just wonder what things are going to look like for them at that point in the season.

16:03So we haven't spent a lot of time talking about the Dolphins in recent weeks, honestly, because it feels like their ceiling is low. I don't know anybody who's like, oh, watch out for the Dolphins in the AFC. It's like, all right, if things go well, yeah, could they win nine or 10 games to make the playoffs? Sure, but there's no reason to trust that they're going to do anything in the playoffs. We've seen that for years. So unless they prove everyone wrong, you should just assume that what has happened previously will happen again. And then you look at the other end of it and it feels like the bottom could fall out at some point this season.

16:35And if that happens, Miami could very well go in a different direction and make a coaching move. So that is bold prediction. Number three, Mike McDaniel does not last this season in Miami. All right, let's take a break. We come back. We will get you bold prediction number four. The Ringer NFL show is brought to you by FanDuel. The NFL is back and FanDuel is making week one even bigger with a chance to win a share of$2 million in bonus bets every game day. That's right,$2 million. Here's how it works. Opt in and place an anytime TD bet on any week one NFL game using your profit boost. And if the player you pick scores either the first or the last touchdown of the game, you'll earn a share of$2 million in bonus bets.

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18:03Opt in. Must apply profit boost token on select market. Prize pool to be split equally among all eligible participants who made the correct first or last TD pick, bonus issued as non-withdrawable bonus bets, which expire 21 days after receipt. Restrictions apply. See terms at sportsbook.fanduel.com. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. This episode is brought to you by Boar's Head. It may have been years ago, but I still remember the feeling of unpacking my kids' lunch boxes after school and to find nothing left.

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19:19Number four, Kyle Shanahan wins coach of the year. Now, I'm going to take a little behind the scenes here for a second. I initially had Pete Carroll for this prediction. And then I said, well, let me double check here. Do a little bit more work. figure out who actually wins this award most years. So I went back and I looked at the last 10 years, coach of the year, and there are two key factors to win the award. One, your team makes a big jump from their win total from the previous season. So on average, it's about six more wins from one season to the next. For nine of the last 10 winners, it's been at least four wins.

19:59So you gotta make that type of jump just in the standings, just with your record. And I think Pete Carroll could do that. But factor number two is the team needs to be really good, not just kind of good, you know? So it's not just the jump in the win total. It's nine out of the last 10 coaches who have won coach of the year, their teams won at least 11 games, 11 games. So Brian Dayball in 2022 with the Giants, the only exception, the Giants went nine, seven and one. He's still won coach of the year. If Carroll, Pete Carroll were to win it, It would have to be that kind of thing, where maybe they go 9-8, 10-7, and you say, all right, this is the exception.

20:39This is kind of like day ball in 2022. That could happen. I like the Raiders. I have them as a playoff team. But if you're telling me they got to get to 11 wins to win coach of the year, I mean, that is a big, big ask with that defensive depth chart. I mean, honestly, if they got to 11 wins, Pete Carroll would be an absolute no-brainer for coach of the year. So I started looking around and think, all right, if it's not Pete Carroll, then who could it be? What team could jump at least four wins and win at least 11 games? Ben Johnson with the Bears, maybe, could do it. I mean, I think that ceiling is there for Chicago, but I think it's going to be more of a gradual build, and I don't think they're going to be quite that good this year.

21:20So I could be wrong. He deserves a mention. And then I got to the 49ers. six and 11 last year. So a four-win jump would put them at 10 wins. And we've talked about it a bunch. They could get to 11, given how easy their schedule is. So checks both those boxes, jump in win total. Can he get to 11 wins? So he checks both of those. And then finally, I was thinking, Kyle Shanahan has never won this award. I mean, it's a very weird award when you look at the list. It's certainly not the best coaches in the NFL. And Kyle Shanahan has been a very good coach. He's gotten to the Super Bowl multiple times.

21:56He's been an offensive innovator. He's been a great schemer. He's been a great play caller. If they win 11 games, we know who's going to get the credit. It's going to be Kyle Shanahan. So you have that. He's going to get the credit. There's like a lifetime achievement aspect of this. You know, people say, oh, can you believe Matt Nagy won a coach of the year award and Jason Garrett won a Coach of the Year Award. Kyle Shanahan's never won one. We must write this wrong. Kyle Shanahan. The narrative aspect of it, you can totally see with Kyle Shanahan. So I think that's my pick for Coach of the Year, Kyle Shanahan, for those reasons in 2025.

22:38All right. Bold prediction number five. Now this one is a little bit off the wall. I'm warning you now. Kirk Cousins plays meaningful games in December. Now, let me be honest. I have not thought about Kirk Cousins in quite some time. There was that quarterback show on Netflix. I was a little bit bored, but when did it come out? Late July. Watched a couple episodes. It was okay, but I kind of moved on and I haven't thought about Kirk Cousins since. So if you're like me, a little reminder, Kirk Cousins is still on the Atlanta Falcons roster. Can you believe it? I know, it's wild. But I actually do think he is a wild card in the 2025 NFL season, sort of because everybody has forgotten about him.

23:29Now, let me be clear. I'm not here to tell you that Kirk Cousins is a great option or a sure thing or anything even close to that. I'm just saying he could be a factor. Now, how could he be a factor? Well, for one, he could be a factor for the Atlanta Falcons. What if Michael Penix Jr. is terrible? What if Michael Penix Jr. gets injured? Remember, this is a guy who had all kinds of injuries in college. That was one of the reasons you wondered about what his career was going to look like in the NFL. And he still has to prove that. He started three games last year. Can he stay healthy? Is he durable enough to last through a 17-game season in the NFL?

24:12So I like Penix. I have the Falcons as a sneaky playoff team, but there's a chance that he gets dinged up and that Cousins actually plays for the Falcons this season. And a reminder, you know, I think we look back at last year and think, oh my gosh, that was an absolute disaster. And it was in some ways, especially the way the Falcons front office handled it. But on the field, the ending was worse than the entire experience, if you zoom out. I mean, they were 7-7 with Cousins last year. I know there was some fluky end-of-game stuff, but it's not like they were 4-10. And he had some moments where he looked like a good NFL quarterback.

24:54So that's one possibility. He sticks with Atlanta, and he has a moment with them. There's also a chance that another team suffers a quarterback injury and doesn't love its backup situation and ends up making a call on Kirk Cousins. I was looking around the league. If Brock Purdy were to go down, would Kyle Shanahan go with Mac Jones? Or would they call about Kirk Cousins? But maybe the more interesting one. If J.J. McCarthy were to go down, are the Vikings really content playing Carson Wentz or a rookie when they have this roster, when they have this opportunity? or what they call about Kirk Cousins, a guy who has played for Kevin O 'Connell, a guy who knows the coach, the scheme, the supporting cast, just something I'm filing away if J.J.

25:46McCarthy were to suffer an injury this season. So listen, some of my takes are analytical and reasoned while others are just based on sort of a hunch and a dart throw. And this one is obviously the latter. It's just me thinking, you know, what I can't get over is that a 41-year-old Aaron Rodgers can get a shot to start with the Pittsburgh Steelers, are we sure that 37-year-old Kirk Cousins is definitely finished? Especially considering that he actually had some moments that I'm telling you he had. Go watch those games against the Bucs last year. He looked good before everything went downhill. And now he's another year removed from that Achilles injury, which has to count for something.

26:27I kind of feel like Kirk Cousins' agent here. That's not what I'm doing. I'm not pandering. I'm not telling you he's amazing. I'm just telling you, who knows? He's a little bit of a wild card when it comes to the 2025 season. And he could be heard from at some point this year. All right, those were my five bold predictions for the 2025 season. Chiefs don't make it to the championship round. Seahawks have the best defense in the NFL. Mike McDaniel gets fired before season's end. Kyle Shanahan wins coach of the year. And Kirk Cousins has a moment in December. All right, we'll come back and finish with the Hurry Up.