Brian Daboll Needs to Hit a Bull's-Eye With Jaxson Dart, With Pat Daugherty

0:00Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia. We have our first, I think it's our first, official quarterback benching of the season. Poor Russell Wilson. The Russell Wilson era in New York is over. What an era it was, but the Giants are going to rookie first round pick Jackson Dart. Everyone saw this coming from a mile away, which is kind of a matter of when. And to talk about why the Giants are making this move now, what to expect from Dart. I feel like there's some propaganda out there. So I feel like this is the perfect guy to cut through some of that. His name is Patrick Daugherty and he is from NBC Sports.

0:38I feel like, Pat, you have a rare distinction in my life, at least, because that distinction is that you are actually funny on social media. I feel like I've been laughing at your tweets where we were just saying for probably like a decade now, but we've never potted together. So I'm very much looking forward to this. I appreciate the kind words. I'm glad you think I'm funny because boy, do I care about trying to be funny. It's very important to me. So it'd be a huge problem. Everyone's like, Pat, you gotta, you gotta stop with the jokes. They're not good. You gotta stop. Well, listen, sometimes you gotta be a volume shooter, you know, and some of them hit and some of them don't.

1:13So we'll see what the, what the listeners think at the end of this, but let's take a break. We'll come back and we will talk Jackson Dart and the New York Giants. This is the Ringer NFL show presented by FanDuel and the NFL is officially back. So if you're going to be in it, be in it with FanDuel. They've got the goods, futures, live betting, SGPs, your way bets, all of it. The app's clean, it's fast. And yeah, when you win, you get paid instantly, which is nice because Sunday patience doesn't exist. So get your bets in, build something bold and make every game feel bigger. Download the FanDuel app or head to fanduel.com slash ringer NFL to get started.

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3:38All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show. So, Pat, I'm going to get us started here, okay? Because I want to talk about just how they got here and what this is actually about and why now. I think that's the big question. So, I'm not an expert on many things, but I feel like I can recognize when an NFL coach is just launching himself into job preservation mode. And let's be honest. That's what this is. Brian Dayball is throwing a Hail Mary. The Giants are 0-3. They have one of the hardest remaining schedules in football. if they go five and 12 or whatever with Russell Wilson, you're getting fired.

4:12It's an open and shut case. We don't have to look too much further. So now Dayball turns to plan B, try to develop Jackson Dart, create some excitement, try to shape the narrative. You want people saying like, oh man, Dart looks like he's showing something in this Dayball system. You know, it doesn't even have to be perfect. It's just like, are there some moments? Are there some glimmers of hope? Are there some highlights? Maybe a sneaky upset here or there. So that's what this is about, right, Pat? is just like Dable had one chance to save his job. He had one last card to play. And that's why he's going to Jackson Dart here.

4:42Yeah, you said it's the first benching. We knew the Giants would be the first something. And they were very frequently in the conversation for who will be the first team to fire their head coach. The Dolphins and Mike McDaniel or the Giants and Brian Dable. Those were kind of the two, quote, contenders. And Brian Dable decided instead of winning that race, you know, might as well at least win the benching my quarterback race. and Russell Wilson, you know, kind of the perfect guy to throw under the bus. And, you know, you say like, why now? Like, why are they doing this now? Other than the obvious reason to save his job.

5:14And I think you could argue after watching that game Sunday night, the Giants didn't even make this decision. This decision was just made for them. And I know that in the media we can get carried away with this kind of stuff. But if you watching that, there was like a heavy sense that they don't do something to change up this mojo. and the easiest something is always to bench the quarterback. It could be like the classic, like you're losing the locker room. Like, you know, Malik Nabors, he's an alpha wide receiver. They're never particularly happy. But Malik didn't appear to be loving life on Sunday night.

5:47And just to the way it ended, like those two series, I believe it was two series in the red zone. And, you know, you get the read option that Russell Wilson, I know they call it a read option. Let's be real. It was actually a handoff. Like you're not the keeper there like that grounding out the back of the end zone and then putting an exclamation point on things with that pass that fourth down pass that hit the field goal pole, which I don't think I've ever seen before. You know, if you ask like Patrick Mahomes to do that this week and hey, you know, it's not that thick of a, you know, bar there.

6:22So Russell Wilson, maybe it was just a challenge. Maybe it was a dare from someone on the team. I love that you brought up neighbors. It was like, that was the fastest I've seen a wide receiver be frustrated. It was like the first quarter of the first game. And he was yelling at Brian Dayball on the sidelines. He was like, I'm not having a season like this again. So I think you're right. I think everybody, you know, you're right. Russell Wilson is the perfect scapegoat because he's like, you know, he's kind of an annoying guy. Coaches don't really, this stage of his career, you know, coaches don't really like him.

6:51He's trying to be rah-rah and positive. And that works when you're really good. And I almost feel like his career, I want to get to that at the end, but it's almost like people do probably forget how good Russell Wilson was in his prime with the way this is finishing. But yeah, I think you're absolutely right. It was just that time for the Giants. And so now we look at Jackson Dart and we say, what are reasonable expectations here? And I've kind of looked at this statistically over the years, like how rookie quarterbacks typically perform. And it's usually like the 25th or 26th best quarterback in the NFL.

7:2320, you know, it sounds crazy to say, but it's like, that's an average rookie season is you're the 25th or 26th best starter. So Jackson Dart comes in 25th overall pick started a lot of games in college, 41 games at Ole Miss. And it's like, I feel like day balls now going to have to say, all right, let's cater this offense to kind of what he did in college. Let's use his legs. Let's hit on some deep shots, but kind of what, what do you think are reasonable expectations for Jackson Dart here the rest of the way? Well, first off, I think Giants fans' expectations need to include the very unfortunate possibility that things actually could get worse than they were under Russell Wilson.

8:02Say what you will about Russ, I mean, they were in all three of those games. They had the shootout in Week 2. They played super poorly and still almost beat the defending AFC titles, Kansas City Chiefs. And Jackson Dart had a prolific college career. It was a simplistic offense. He's kind of a one-read guy. he's kind of there's a reason he was taken you know in the kenny pickett zone of the draft and wasn't a lottery pick because i think i think it says even the giants know weren't necessarily sold on him as a franchise quarterback they're sold that he maybe has franchise upside you know they truly believe that they would have taken him at number three overall and not just traded back into the first round so this is a high variance pick he's a very volatile player but whereas uh It could get worse.

8:48We knew it wasn't going to get better with Russell Wilson. Things actually could get better. He has an exciting skill set. You know, he likes to throw downfield. He likes to call his own number. I would say maybe a little too frequently. Yeah, watch out. He might take some shots. He's not a bad athlete, but he's not like an elite, elite athlete. And I thought he ran kind of a lot. But, you know, he's tough. We already saw him kind of embracing like the Taysom Hill role a little bit. And I think that is where Giants fans need to park themselves. It could get worse, but we knew it wasn't getting better before.

9:22A playoff season, a winning season is probably not attainable, of course. Excitement, though, is now attainable. And hopefully easily attainable because he is an exciting young prospect despite the downside and volatility. I love the Kenny Pickett zone. Where does that start? Is that at like 14? Or I'm stealing that. I'm just letting you know. No, please do. because I've been hammering that one this offseason, by the way, trying to make it a thing. So if you want to embrace it too, I'd say around 12 or 13. 12. Okay, yeah. Outside the top 10, but 11 feels too close. Yeah, I like that. 12 to 32 in the first round.

9:59You're in the Kenny Pickett zone. We kind of like you. We don't like you enough to take you in the top 10. Who knows? Football's hard. Quarterback evaluation is weird. Maybe we'll get lucky here. Yeah, that's kind of the area of the draft that they took him. So we'll see what it looks like. Yeah, I think they're going to, like you said, I think they're going to simplify it. You know, it's not like he's got to be going through all his reads and he doesn't need like the film grinders to be like, oh my gosh, he got to the backside dig here. Like he needs to be chucking it downfield. He needs to be running.

10:27He needs to be scrambling. He needs to be avoiding negative plays. He needs to be spamming targets to Malik Nabors. Like if I'm a rookie quarterback on that team, I'm just like, if Malik Nabors is the first read, I'm probably just going to throw it to him and see if he comes down with it. So I think that's what it looks like. But I think you did a good job of resetting the expectations because you're right. Like Russell Wilson, if you just look at the nerd stats, like EPA per pass play, he was 18 through three weeks. You know, he had one very good game where they were bombing away against against the Dallas Cowboys.

11:00Now, it wasn't a great three game stretch, but like 18 is actually a hard bar to clear for a rookie quarterback. So, yes, it could get worse. But to your point, I can't imagine. And I wonder if there's like a columnist or just anyone in New York who's making the case, like they should have stuck with Russ. Like how could they, I actually don't, I think that's one take. I don't think there's anybody in America making the case, right? Should I, maybe I should have done that on this podcast. This is ridiculous. They should have stuck with Russell Wilson. Yeah, there's a lot of contrarian takes like that are layups these days, but that's one, that's like an old school columnist.

11:33Like that's when you're writing in the actual paper level contrarian take. I don't think anyone's bold enough to do that. This is disrespectful to a Super Bowl champ. How could they do this to Russell Wilson? So, yeah, I don't think anyone's making that argument. All right, let's take a break. When we come back, Pat, I've got three ways where I think this could potentially play out. And I want to get your take on those three potential scenarios. Legally, we can't say drinking storm makes you smarter and more focused. But with zero sugar, 200 milligrams of caffeine, and immunity support, you're smarter and more focused for drinking, Storm.

12:09Storm, good energy in, good energy out. Energy for life. All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show. So I'm going to give you the three scenarios, and you tell me which one you want to start with, okay? Scenario number one is Dart looks completely overmatched and is terrible. Like, this thing's just a disaster. That's scenario one. Scenario two, Dart's like okay. As I said, he performs like an average rookie. He has some ups and downs, but it's like, all right, maybe there's something there. He's not terrible. And then three is, Dart is a revelation. He's just really good. Which one of these three do you want to discuss first?

12:44What order do you want to go in? Start from three, because I feel like that's the least likely. And we'll go backwards. He wants to be nice to you, Giants fan. So he says, let's start with three. Dart is a revelation. So the case here, I think, is just that the hardest thing to predict in the NFL is how rookie quarterbacks are going to perform. We see that year in, year out, everybody's so confident with their draft takes. And then the guys actually play and it's like, OK, a lot of those were very wrong. So he's got Malik neighbors. Andrew Thomas is coming back at left tackle. Maybe Dart injects some energy into the team.

13:19Everybody's like, all right, this is kind of exciting. That's the dream. And I'm with you. It's possible. It's unlikely. but it's possible. So how realistic does that feel to you? It just doesn't feel very realistic because, you know, we got so used to quarterbacks kind of hitting the ground running. We had that quarterback golden age where the Brady Manning breeze years where all the veterans were producing like well beyond like where players used to produce ages. That is new quarterbacks were coming in, just hitting the ground running, having 300 yard gains right out of the gate. You know, the Justin Herbert years, which already five or six years ago somehow.

13:57But we've just seen a turn. And I feel like the past five seasons where even the revelatory rookie years aren't revelatory anymore. Like CJ Stroud, like we thought he was amazing. And then, you know, what is going on with him the past 18 starts? And it just seems like in response to that passing golden age, like defenses aren't just getting more complicated. They're getting like exponentially more complicated every year. and it just seems like a really difficult time to be a young passer, a young quarterback right now, especially if you're not an elite runner. And he is a good athlete. I just don't think he's an elite runner.

14:32And I just feel like for a genuine blue chip prospect, it's so hard to be that revelatory rookie right now. And despite having upside, I just don't think he's a genuine blue chip prospect. And I think it'll be very, very hard to get the revelation that saves everyone in the Giants organization's job. Yeah, I think that would be surprising. Again, possible, we could be wrong, but not the most likely scenario. All right, so that's the third one. The second one, Dart is okay. He performs like an average rookie. So this is just, you know, he flashes. He has some ups and downs like rookies usually do.

15:04There are moments of excitement. There are weeks where he just looks completely overmatched. And I kind of think this is the most interesting scenario because what is the bar to clear for Brian Dayball to keep his job? I don't know. I know you do a great job with like coach rankings and GM rankings. And I feel like Dayball is very good at manipulating the media a little bit or like shaping the narrative. Like I'm even seeing it with this move. Like Dayball's been working with him, you know, in the summer. And these guys have like fiery personalities. And I'm like, all right, let's I just let's see what this looks like before we go overboard here.

15:38And I think is it just like if they go, let's say, I don't know, five and 12, six and 11. but he shows some flashes. Is there a chance that that could be enough for him to keep his job? Or do you think Giants ownership is going to be like, sorry, you're going to have to do better than that? I think it's the sorry because, so listen, Brian Dable's been on the job three years. He's won three games, six games, and nine games. Those are normal win totals for a coach's first three years on the job. What is not normal is that you begin at nine, then go to six, then go to three. Usually you're three, you're six, and then you're nine.

16:13And so to me, kind of no matter what happened this year Like seven, eight wins This wasn't going to be enough for Brian Dable to save his job Nine or ten, this doesn't feel attainable to me And I feel like he's almost like damned if he does Damned if he doesn't at this point Because even if Jackson Dart shows promise You know, the narrative is probably going to be I think understandably Like, okay, we got this promising young rookie quarterback Dable, we gave him four years He just didn't show enough We cannot screw up Jackson Dart It's someone else's turn to come in here and do this. And I just think the way his beginning was sequenced kind of dooms him because I just don't think seven or eight wins saves Brian Dable's job.

16:53And I don't see how they get to nine or 10 wins. Yeah, if it's seven or eight, it would have to be Dart looks amazing. And it feels really clear that like Dable is responsible. Like Dart's like, Dable's my guy. And like, yeah, you know, they have like, it feels like there's something there. That's kind of the scenario he's looking at. okay, so then scenario number one, Dart looks completely overmatched and is terrible. And we can't discount this possibility because this is an organization that just doesn't deserve the benefit of the doubt. You know, again, I've read stuff today about Dayball's plan, and I'm just kind of like laughing.

17:27Like their plan was to return 10 of 11 starters to an offense that stunk and go with Russell Wilson. You know, and this is an off season where their jobs are on the line. Like, I don't think they had a great plan. I don't think they have a great plan. And if you mentioned Dayball's win totals, like if you look at it, 204 coaches have coached at least 50 games in the NFL. He is 186th in win percentage. This has not gone well. And it's not just Dayball, like the organization I'm talking about benefited it out. The last 10 years, you know how many teams have won fewer games than the New York Giants?

18:02Oh my gosh. Guess. Give me a guess. Well, I'm going to guess low now. Yeah, I know. Bad setup I make. Three, three. One. One, the New York Jets are the only team in the last 10 years that has won fewer games than the New York Giants. So that Jaguars win last week was big because it put them over the Giants in this 10-year thing that only I care about. But you know what? I'm tracking it. So good job by you, Jaguars. So you look at all this and then does Daniel Jones play a factor in this? You know, especially for ownership, you're looking at this going, all right, we couldn't do anything with this guy.

18:38We stunk and now he's in Indianapolis and their offense is going up and down the field. So like you add all those things up and I just like there is a chance this this goes very poorly for them. There is. I think the Jones thing does play into it because I think the Giants, even New York Giants, like they understood that Saquon Barkley was probably going to look better when they let him go. I don't think they were ready for 2000 yards and instantly winning the Super Bowl. But I think they understood he was just going to look better because it was not a great situation. Daniel Jones I think the Giants probably sold to themselves like listen like this wasn't our fault like we gave this guy like a pretty long leash and it just didn't work it just wasn't meant to be it's a bit much then for even Daniel Jones to go oh now they're three and oh he's a guy who could barely get the seven yards for attempt in New York is averaging over nine yards for attempt every game it's a not like it's an elite skill core like it's a better skill core we didn't think it was this much better than our skill core.

19:36And Daniel Jones is still doing this. And like, no, the problem really is us. We've been putting off this full scale rebuild for so long. We're giving guys extra years. Brian Dable probably did not deserve an extra year. We're giving the front office an extra year and we're trying to be patient, but wow, like we just messed up. We, we really underestimated how much change there needs to be. And that is a very plausible outcome in New York. Yeah. So the Daniel Jones thing is so hard to explain. Cause if you're like, it's the coaching. It's like, it's, you know, Steichen's doing a much better job than Dayball.

20:07Like Joe Shane might be whispering that to John Mara. And then Dayball's like, look at his supporting cast. You know, it's not the coaching. He's just in a much better situation than I have been in here. It's one or the other. Like it's got to be one or the other. And again, it's only three games. We don't expect him to play like that the rest of the season. But yeah, I do think that's the type of thing that certainly gets ownership's attention. All right. Last couple of things I want to end on here. over under Russell Wilson starts the rest of his career. So he's 37 years old, went from Denver to Pittsburgh to the Giants.

20:41I will put it at 10 games he starts the rest of his career. Over or under, and how do you think this plays out? I might push on 10 because 10 sounds good to me. I've learned, as you have definitely learned, that it's hard to kill these guys. like people with reputations, people with track records, like Carson Wentz is now a starter in Minnesota and not just a starter, you know, people kind of whispering like, listen, man, he's probably gonna be better than JJ McCarthy was. Listen, when I said this is the first QB benching, I was like, I don't know, Pat might want to break a conspiracy. He's been reading those same tweets that I've been reading that, are we sure that they're not just going to Carson Wentz?

21:19So yeah, who knows? Well, I got a little more suspicious when Tracy Wilson had a sideline report about how healthy JJ McCarthy was. But when you see Carson Wentz getting another start, Joe Flacco, really, he was as close to out of the league as you could possibly be. Three years in a row where he's making meaningful starts, where Russ has got the extra problem. Coaches kind of don't love having him around, like you said. But it's hard to get rid of these guys. And 10 sounds good to me because he's not young. He's not quite as old as you might think. I'm pushing on a projection of 10 more Russell Wilson starts.

21:56It sort of feels like he could get a backup role, you know, and if a guy gets injured, does that for a couple of years, that could maybe get you to 10. I don't know that he's going to get another opportunity to even be in like a quarterback competition, but I could be wrong. You mentioned that Joe Flacco is starting in the year 2025. All right. Last thing. I went, you know, I can't help myself. Sometimes I like to look far ahead and start speculating. And so let's say it doesn't go great for Brian D 'Abel. this is his last year as the Giants head coach I just I took like 12 seconds and I'm like who are names that pop into my head as potentially the next Giants coach and I just wanted to throw him out there to you if there's one where you're like ooh I could see that okay you ready for this?

22:39I'm ready here we go Mike Tomlin Kevin Stefanski Jesse Minter the Chargers defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo Cliff Kingsbury Brian Flores and finally Nick Saban. I had to. It popped in my head. What do you want from me? I had to. All right, do any of those, when I mentioned their name, you're like, ooh, yeah, I could totally see that one. You had to throw Saban in there because I think Belichick has removed himself from the running. Yeah, he's gone. I thought about it. I'm like, no, no one's, I don't think anybody's hiring him. And this, I think the Giants, so the Giants are, they're the worst kind of dysfunctional organization because they so badly want to be functional.

23:22like you can see it like they think they're above being dysfunctional because they kind of were for a lot of their history so they've done all these half measures again they're taking quarterbacks in the picket zone they're they want to appear stable so they're giving brian dable an extra year a guy who just didn't deserve an extra year i think they might kind of like myst louis cardinals kind of like maybe what you're seeing with the pittsburgh steelers they kicked the can down the road on a true reset for so long that i think they're gonna do like the full like true kind of blow it up, truly reset.

23:54And none of those names struck me as like the guy you want to read. Maybe Nick Saban if you're five years younger. I think they're going to go the tried and true recent route and they're trying to find the next McVeigh. And I didn't hear like a next McVeigh on that list, but I think they're either starting with a really young potential mastermind or like a really established name brand. I didn't hear that there. So there's not a great next McVeigh that I can think. I feel like Jesse Minter defensively may be the closest thing to that with the Chargers if he keeps coaching like this. So maybe that's a name to keep an eye on.