Broncos Big Winners, Packers Big Losers, and Bills Win a Wild One in New England

0:06Austin Gayle:Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia. What a week 15 it was. We're going to focus on the three biggest things that happened on Sunday. Number one, Micah Parsons going down with an injury, feared to be a torn ACL. What does that mean for the Packers? What does it mean for the NFC playoff picture? Number two, the Bills with a huge win in Foxborough. What did we learn about them? What did we learn about the Patriots? We'll talk about that. And number three, the Broncos with an impressive win over the Packers, their 11th straight win. Are we buying them as the favorites in the AFC?

0:43Austin Gayle:My guest today is the Ringer's Austin Gale. Let's take a break and come back and talk to Austin.

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3:41Austin Gayle:All right, we are back here with Austin Gale. Austin, let's get started here. The biggest thing that happened on Sunday, Micah Parsons going down with the knee injury in the third quarter, the dreaded non-contact replay. And according to ESPN and Pro Football Talk, they fear it's a torn ACL, which of course means his season would be over. So we got to talk about what this means. And I hate to be an alarmist. I hate to, you know, go all the way to one side. I think their Super Bowl hopes might be over, Austin. I think this is just too much to overcome. I mean, he leads the NFL in pressures. He's got 12 and a half sacks.

4:19Austin Gayle:And even more so, it's just he is that force multiplier guy that the nerd, you know, the football nerds always like to talk about that when he's out there, now everyone else is able to generate pressure and everyone else is better at their jobs. And I just feel like that's going to show up. I feel like it showed up in this game. And so that's where I'm at right now. Maybe you'll tell me I'm wrong. Maybe six weeks from now, we'll go, oh, my gosh, Jordan Love reached another level in the offense carried on more Matt LaFleur, master's class in the NFC playoffs. I don't think that's going to happen.

4:51Austin Gayle:I think they're going to have a really tough time without Micah Parsons and that they're stealing. I'm bringing it down. What is your take on this Parsons injury? I think it's hard with any team in either the NFC or the AFC, especially with a lot of like the top, you know, top quarterbacks in the NFL, not even going to make the postseason to call anybody out. But this is obviously a big hit to their Super Bowl chances with the Micah Parsons injury. I think I'm more of the opinion that they're not deep postseason or Super Bowl contenders, not just because of the Micah Parsons injury. I think they're obviously, like you said, it's looking like it's going to be an ACL.

5:25He's going to be out for the season, but it's been a cluster of injuries for the Green Bay Packers this season. They were already without Tucker Craft. They're starting tight end, a weapon for them offensively. He's been out for a while now. He's been out since week nine. They're also without Elton Jenkins. They're center at foursome, the reshuffle, the interior offensive line. And then they also have been out Devontae Wyatt. And then in this game, not only did they lose Mike Parsons, Zach Tom, their offensive tackle, he goes down with a knee injury. And you had Christian Watson, who's been kind of their go to top threat at the receiver position, really for the offense downfield.

5:55And he goes down with a chest injury. That doesn't look good either. So you lose Tom, you lose Watson and you lose Parsons in this game. You're already without Wyatt, Kraft, Jenkins. I think it's just a combo and it's sometimes it's a simple game, but it's the healthiest teams in the NFL are the ones that, you know, when you're in February, you think actually have these chances to win the Super Bowl. And I think this Parsons injury is kind of the cherry on top of what has been kind of a really, really tough season for the Packers over the second half with a ton of injuries. And I think ultimately, these injuries are too hard to overcome, especially when you look at like, without Watson, I don't have a ton of faith in this receiving core.

6:28The offensive line's been banged up, and I think how they reshuffled it, that doesn't look good either. Love isn't as good under pressure. Then you go to the defense. Parsons is that force multiplier. He has over 20 more pressures than any other Packer on this team. You don't have Wyatt anymore. I think he's like absolved some of the sins of the secondary as well. He makes things easier for the secondary. So the defense is going to take a major step back. The offensive line takes another step back. The receiving core loses Watson. It all kind of adds up to almost like too many problems to solve, even for Matt LaFleur, who I think is one of the best coaches in the NFL.

6:57I think it's ultimately just too much to overcome. And it's a season that even like if they do make the Super Bowl or they do go on a run, it's going to be even Packers fans, I think would be shocked to see them kind of go the distance. I think a lot of Packers fans today felt like their season ended.

7:12Austin Gayle:It feels like it's going to be the dreaded what-if season. Now, I like their team. I like the quarterback. I like the coach. I think they're going to be in the mix for years to come. But you know how this goes when you're a fan and you have an era. And then if it doesn't happen, if you don't end up winning, you often look back to, well, there was that one season. It was setting up pretty well for them in the NFC. Not to say they were the favorites. I think the Rams have been the favorites. but I feel like they really had a chance with this Parsons preseason trade. And I like the point you made about all the guys that have been injured.

7:45Austin Gayle:You weren't just naming some dudes, you know, sometimes on podcast, people are just naming dudes and you're like, wait a minute, is that a real person or not? No, you were, these are like difference making, Tucker craft, Elkin Jenkins and Micah Parsons. Like if we did a list of their 10 best players, I think those three guys would be on the list. Like the guys, they lost three of their five best players. Yeah. Yeah, I like Parsons, Watson, and then you lose Tom as well. In terms of maybe not best, but like most important, I think they, and that was before, that's before the craft, Wyatt Jenkins stuff.

8:15Like they, it was a devastating day for the Packers.

8:18Austin Gayle:Yeah. And Watson, it's like when that craft injury happened, I was like, I don't know if they can withstand the craft injury. And then Watson comes in and it's like, I had the greatest ACL repair of all time in, you know, modern history. And I look like the player everyone thought I was going to be early in my career. And so we don't know. To be fair, we don't know with Watson. It didn't look good. It's a chest injury. We'll see what that is. Maybe there's a scenario where their offense can carry them, but tough, tough day for the Green Bay Packers. And you look around the NFC here, Austin, Rams are the heavy favorites.

8:49Austin Gayle:Seahawks sneak past Phillip Rivers. Eagles blow out the Raiders, but it's the Raiders. I mean, what is the pecking order? Is it the Rams in their own tier right now? Is it Rams and Seahawks? How do you size this up with this Packers, with the Parsons injury? I think it's easy maybe to argue that the Rams are in their own tier. They're atop the NFC. And I think now that you don't have the two teams in either conference both getting buys, only one team gets the buy. And if the Rams are able to kind of secure that top seed, maybe they are in a tier by themselves. But I don't know if people saw this late.

9:19Devontae Adams kind of comes up with a hamstring injury. I think Sean McVay told reporters after the game, it doesn't look good. Anytime you have those soft tissue hamstring injuries at receiver, it's tough to see him coming back. You have to hope he's healthy by the time they're going into the postseason, getting the buy. Obviously, it's going to be huge there. So I think that is a piece of this. but they're sure in a tier by themselves, but it's going to be, I think, a very interesting playoff, right? On the NFC side and the AFC, how I have the pecking order right now is Rams one. Then there's this like cluster, I think, of tier two teams, Bears, Eagles, Seahawks, Packers.

9:50I kind of have them in that order. You can probably reshuffle a little bit. Why I like the Bears specifically at the number two spot. I'm ahead of the Eagles. Yes, they beat Philly this year, but I really think it's because the Bears can run the ball. And one thing I'm taking away from this season is the teams that can get under center or even just run the ball out of shotgun as well successfully, specifically on early downs. The Bears are the number two team in rushing success rate. You look at last year, I think they were 31st this time last season. And we've talked about this on this podcast before.

10:16When you get these like sexy offensive play calling coaches coming in, everyone kind of looks first at the quarterback. Oh, can he fix Jared Goff? Can he fix Caleb Williams? Can Liam Cohen fix Trevor Lawrence? I think what gets kind of underrated is can these guys come in and establish a very successful run game. And you've seen that immediately with Ben Johnson, DeAndre Swift, Common Unguy, this completely retooled offensive line. And in January, in February, I can bet on the Bears being able to run the football. You haven't been able to say that about the Philadelphia Eagles this season. The Seahawks, it's not been there.

10:47Green Bay, it's been fine. Top 10, the Bears, I think, are a better running football team. And then after that, the 6-7 that I have in this pecking order is the Niners and then the Bucs, or I guess whoever wins this very bad NFC South. But it's tough, man. I think the Rams, it's their conference to lose, especially with the one seed. But that middle tier of teams, it could swap in and out depending on how this regular season ends up.

11:08Austin Gayle:It's still bunched up. I mean, you named all those teams. The Niners actually have better odds to come out of the NFC than the Bears right now, according to FanDuel. And so it's still one of those things. You know, the Lions lose this game, but I was looking at the athletics playoff simulator. If the Lions win out, Steelers at Vikings at Bears, they have a 95 % chance. to get in. And the Bears right now are the two seed, but they've got the Packers on Saturday night, which I can't wait for that game, at San Francisco, and the Lions. So it's almost like this mini-NFC tournament is playing out because between Bears, Packers, Lions, and Niners, only three, one of those teams is not going to make it.

11:48Austin Gayle:Only three of those teams are going to get in because the Seahawks or the Rams are going to take up one of the wildcard spots. So a lot, it's like a bunch of teams are eliminated and it's like, okay, on to free agency in the draft and whatever. But we're still not sure exactly what this field is going to look like in the NFC, which makes it fun. So Rams continue to be impressive. I think they are the favorites. But I'm with you. I can tell you're a little nervous like I am, Austin, because we like to be like this team, you know, they're not that good. All right, well, look at their scoring margin or look at their EPA or look at their one-score games.

12:24Austin Gayle:But we're going to get burned with some of those takes this year. All of these teams have flaws. All of these teams have flaws. The Rams secondary, I think, is very gettable. I think teams with really good receiving scores, good quarterbacks that you're going to pick on that secondary. The Bears defense overall, I think, has struggled this season. The Eagles, we've all talked about the problems offensively. Seattle still has Darnold, still has a run game that isn't efficient. Packers have all these injuries now. 49ers defensively have had a ton of injuries. That's taken a big step back in the box.

12:50Baker Mayfield just hasn't played well for like two months, right? And then you factor in some of the injuries as well. I think all of these teams have flaws. no team is like a juggernaut. And I think with the Bears, you mentioned those three games down the stretch. I think the most important one, I think the most interesting one is outside in Chicago against Detroit in week 18. I think that's a big opportunity for them to like, hey, we're going to shut down the lines in this spot. Ben Johnson over his former team. And we're going to go into the playoffs with a little bit of momentum here. And they're the team now that I think like three, four or five weeks ago, specifically because of the defense and like some up and down rollercoasterness from Caleb Williams.

13:25I can't be buying this team as a team that wins three, four games in the postseason and actually gets the big dance. I'm actually growing more and more on the side of like, I trust this team. I trust this team to run the football. I think they're getting better. The coaching, I think, is up there with the best in the NFC. I trust the coach. That's what it is. It's like, yeah.

13:39Austin Gayle:I mean, every week it feels like, all right, Ben Johnson's giving his team an edge over the opponent. So, yeah, I'm with you there. I've had kind of a roller coaster ride with them, but now I'm like, oh, I kind of like them. I think I kind of trust the Bears here. All right, let's take a break. We come back. We'll get to some of the other big storylines from week 15.

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16:48Austin Gayle:All right, we are back on the Ringer NFL show. Next big thing that happened, Austin, the Buffalo Bills closed the gap on the New England Patriots. Now, to be fair, even after this win, Patriots are still the favorites. They have like a 75 % chance to win the AFC East. They're 11-3. The Bills are 10-4, but the Bills battle back from, what was it, 21-0, 24-7. Their offense scores touchdowns on five straight drives. I have news for you. I don't really feel different about the Bills now than I did 12 hours ago. I know their offense can be very efficient. I like their offensive line. I like Josh Allen.

17:24Austin Gayle:I like their run game. I think most weeks they're going to go up and down the field. And the flaws that we've seen with them defensively showed up again here. So I think if you're a Bills fan, you're excited. You're looking at it like, hey, Mahomes isn't going to be in the dance. Joe Burrow's not going to be in the dance. Is this our year? And then you look at your defensive depth chart and you look at your defensive performance in the playoffs most seasons and you're like, oh my gosh, is that going to betray us once again here? So that's where I'm at with the Bills. You should be excited about this win.

17:54Austin Gayle:It doesn't really change how I view the Buffalo Bills. Am I right or am I wrong? No, I think that some people looking at this game be like, oh man, Josh Allen put on the superhero cape again. I didn't come away in the second half specifically. I thought this was more like the Patriots defense is really bad and really struggled in this game. They didn't have Milton Williams. Bobby Spillane, their linebacker, was active, but he didn't play. He did pregame warm-ups. Apparently, he was the first person on the field, but he didn't end up playing in this game. I thought the Bills picked on those linebackers, specifically in the second half.

18:23I know some Patriots fans are kind of upset about some of the penalties in the second half. I wanted to go over those really quickly. The third and five in the third quarter, defensive holding against Craig Woodson, clear penalty, ends up setting up a touchdown on one of those five consecutive touchdown drives. Then you had the third and fourth. Carlson Davis falls down. Then he gets back up. He hooks Keon Coleman. People don't think it's there. Maybe the contact you could argue doesn't negatively affect Coleman. I still think it's a penalty. They call it. They end up scoring a touchdown on that drive, too.

18:49And then the big one, the fourth and three, Khalil Shakir, 37-yarder. They ended up calling it a Shakir catch with defensive pass interference on Marcus. And then, yeah, I forget his last name. Marcus something. But yeah, Marcus Jones. Marcus Jones. He's turning his head. Maybe there's a pick. Whatever. I think that was like the closest one, the most maybe that you could argue either side. But still, they end up ruling a catch, defensive pass interference. I don't think the penalties, even though they came on clutch situations, two third downs and a fourth down, that wasn't my big takeaway from this and that the refs like screwed them.

19:19The defense just simply was not getting the job done in the interior. They're going to beat up in the run game. Linebackers are getting picked on in coverage. Josh Allen had all day to throw. This Patriots defense is not a pressure defense and neither is the Bills, to be fair. But like if you're coming out of this game as a Patriots fan, maybe we didn't learn too much about the Bills. I think there's still some suspect stuff on the Bills defense. I think they're a they're a break, not bend defense. Like they give up a ton of explosives. They struggle specifically giving up run explosives.

19:44Austin Gayle:Did you coin that? I haven't heard that before. I don't know. I don't know if I coined it or not. But like I think they think. 65-yard touchdowns they'll give up. But you know. And maybe it's also the other side too. Other possessions they might look okay. The other side too, right? You had the pick six against the Bengals last week. Some of these big explosive, big, big plays on defense. Those havoc plays. But for the Patriots, like you're coming out of this game. You're saying, man, our defense really struggled. And it wasn't Josh Allen making these superhero plays. It's like us getting beat in coverage.