Cowboys vs. Lions Takeaways, Plus Predicting the Week 14 Headlines

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1:22Turner Smith, and my man, Richard Gere. Don't miss The Agency Season 2. All episodes streaming June 21st on Paramount+.

1:36Welcome to the Ringer NFL Show. I'm Shiel Kapadia. Today we are talking about that Cowboys-Lions Thursday night game, and then we take a look ahead at a couple matchups in Week 14. You know the exercise. We are predicting what headlines we're going to read after Bears Packers and Texans Chiefs, two of the biggest matchups this weekend. We have a return guest, J.P. Acosta from CBS Sports and the Pushing the Pile podcast. Love talking football with J.P. Let's take a break and get to it. This episode of the Ringer NFL show is presented by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm.

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2:51All right, we are back here on the Ringer NFL show with JP Acosta. JP, let's start with Cowboys lines. I thought from Detroit's perspective, this was a huge spot for Dan Campbell. They've had the up and down season. They're on the ropes here. He took over play calling a month ago and their offense showed up in a huge way. I thought that was really the story of the game. I mean, if there was one possession there where they punted or had a turnover, I felt like the Cowboys could steal it, but last seven possessions, four touchdowns, two field goals, one missed field goal. Offense showed up. It's an exhale game.

3:25It's a culture game, probably. It feels like they're like, nope, we're not done yet. Our window is still open. How did you feel about that performance from the Lions' perspective? This was the most Dan Campbell Detroit Lions performance I think the Lions have ever had. when it comes to the environment surrounding the game. The you need a win. This is a must-win game if you want to even make the playoffs. And coming off that Thanksgiving game where it just felt demoralizing, sort of watching them play, it felt like they couldn't really get anything going. You're coming in against one of the hottest teams in the NFL, in the Cowboys, and they casually dropped their fourth best game of the season by EPA per play.

4:07Just hammering the Cowboys with explosives. I thought that was the thing that stood out the most. Their success rate on down-to-down consistency, it was actually worse than the Packer game on Thanksgiving. But they were constantly hammering them with explosives, especially in the passing game, whether it be Jameer Gibbs out as a receiver, like legitimate receiver routes. You get Amon Ross St. Brown cooking man coverage. Jamison Williams had his best game of the year. And I think it's just all these elements combined. I think they actually touched on it during the game that with Dan Campbell as offensive coordinator calling the plays, they're throwing the ball a lot more on early downs and neutral passing situations.

4:45And I think that just plays into the fact that they don't really have the offensive line to just kind of sit back and run the ball and then hammer teams over the top. So in this game, they use a lot of quick game, a lot of play action, just like they use play action to take their shots and then just hammer them with quick game and the Cowboys couldn't tackle them. This felt like the needed Dan Campbell offensive performance. Yeah, there was that huge play fourth quarter, I think, with second down. They run it on first down and you're going, man, are they just going to go run, run, pass and try to make the cat use clock and make the Cowboys use timeout?

5:19And they go, they call a pass play and they go to Amon Ross St. Brown on kind of that crosser that goes for 30 plus yards and then they get the roughing the passer afterwards. That was like the Dan Campbell moment where it's like, all right, we didn't lose him because, you know, there have been times this season where I thought, all right, he's the play caller now. Now, is he going to continue to always be as aggressive? Even that Packers game, I thought like, you know, what you're saying now didn't apply. I thought they were running the football into like bad looks and just not not able to run it on early downs.

5:47But yeah, no, that Dan Campbell that we've come to know and some of us have come to know and love over the years is still in there where it's like, let's put the foot on the throat. Our defense might not hold up against this Cowboys offense and let's go for the win. So let's see. I mean, listen, their defense wasn't great in this game. They came up with some big stops. They came up with some big red zone stops. I think they're still vulnerable in the secondary. They're still vulnerable with their pass rush outside of Aiden Hutchinson, but they're in the mix in a wide open NFC. They're still going to be in the mix, especially if their offense can play like that.

6:21And then on the Cowboys end of this, JP, like this was such a narrative game because, oh my goodness, man, if they would have won this game, ah, Jerry, Jerry was cooking. He knew, look at this team. They got it. their back. What did he know that no one else knew? And instead I came away from this thinking if I'm a Cowboys fan, I'm irate because their playoff chances should not have come down to a Thursday night game on December 4th. That's not where they lost their playoff chances. I understand they're still in it if they win out, but you know, their playoff chances were lost in the first nine weeks of the season when they played with a shorthanded defense.

7:00And I swear I'm watching that game going. Not only does it come back to the Parsons trade, it comes back to the timing of it. Because if you made this move in the spring and got players, you would have had a chance to build a better defense. Or if you got draft picks, you would have had a chance to build a better defense. If you waited until the trade deadline, you would have had Parsons for the first eight weeks of the season. If you waited until after the season, by the way, which could have been an option, then you could have had Parsons for this season and you could have traded him after the season.

7:29Instead, those first nine weeks, Your defense was the worst in the NFL. You lost games. And now you're wasting an amazing Dak Prescott season with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickett. Like this team is not only playoff worthy, they could be making noise in the playoffs and now they might not even get in. So I feel like the Jerry narrative that maybe he was hoping for coming out of this game, instead I'm going back the other way and back to ripping him. I think looking at this game from the long term, sort of zooming out like you did with Jerry Jelent and the trades and the deals that he made. The most important thing is the part of the defense that they didn't really address well enough in the offseason, or even like they'd made one trade to address it at the deadline with Logan Wilson, their linebackers were awful on Thursday night.

8:16It was horrendous. And all those passes over the middle of the field, the deep over routes, the dig routes, Jameer Gibbs running wide open in space, they just couldn't tackle. I think on the big David Montgomery run if you watch it if you watch it back again Kenneth Murray takes himself out of the play like he sees the gap open and then goes the opposite way and that's what they've been dealing with for the last not one first nine weeks before they even tried to trade for Logan Wilson you have all these players and you tried to nickel and dime the linebacker spot because you thought oh we're going to pay Micah Parsons and then you didn't pay Micah Parsons the entire point of this defense was we were going to scheme around one dominant defensive player and everybody else would just get by.

9:01And now they're still trying to do that. But Quentin Williams, as great as he is, is not Micah Parsons, even though he had a very good game today. But it just felt like all of the inefficiencies, all of the inability to address their faults, their wrongs in the offseason came back to haunt them in this one game. Lack of foresight, I think, you know, is really what you're saying, what I'm saying, because if you felt like going into this year that, hey, we really have a chance with the pick and straight, with our passing game, I think Brian, you know, Brian Schottenheimer, the game management stuff at the end of the game, we can, you know, that leaves something to be desired.

9:37But overall, he's done a great job this season. I mean, when you look at that offense and you look at how they performed and you look at the team plays hard, you know, they're not a dumb team or anything like that for the most part. And still, they're in this spot where now, even if they win out, I was just looking at the athletics playoff simulator. I think it's like a 40 % chance they have of making the playoffs. I just feel like you don't get these seasons all the time where the quarterback stays healthy, where you pay the quarterback. He's got the weapons on the outside. He's got a great, great grasp of the offense.

10:10You're not like, oh, it's a new coordinator or something like that. This type of season where he's comfortable, the offense looks unstoppable most weeks, and you're probably just going to end up wasting it. I mean, it's really not that dissimilar to the Bengals last year. I know others have made that comparison. Danny Heifetz was making that comparison even before the season and I think it's spot on. So we'll see what happens the rest of the way with that Cowboys team. They're not easy to play. They're really hard to play specifically their offense, but it just might be that they wasted too many games in the first half of the season.

10:43All right, let's take a break. We come back. Let's talk about Bears Packers and then Chiefs Texans. This episode is brought to you by Amazon Prime. The holidays move quickly like a blitz to save the game. That's where Prime comes in with fast, free delivery. You know, my kids put together these presentations for what they want for Christmas and they put the Amazon Prime link right in there. I just have to click, click. They know I'm not paying for shipping. I'm going to that Prime link, can order it. It shows up at the door. It's in a box so it doesn't give anything away, I sneak it upstairs, and there you go.

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12:00All right, we are back here on the Ringer NFL. Sorry, JP did this exercise with us last time and did a tremendous job where we are just predicting headlines. What are we going to be talking about with these games next week? And JP, your game is Bears-Packers, a big one in the NFC North. What do you got for us? Mine is the Bears get close, but not close enough. I think the Packers are going to win this game. I think it's going to be a close one because of how good the Bears' run game is. Because of how sustainable the run game is and how many problems they can cause for opposing defenses on the ground, I think they're able to keep it close.

12:41but Chicago's defense this season is 31st in the NFL in pressure rate, according to true media. When they blitz, their pressure rate is also 31st in the NFL. So you can't win with four. You can't win with the ad blitzers. And you just so happen to be going up against a quarterback in Jordan Love, who is really good against the blitz. And if you can't get pressure on him, I just feel like there's so many more opportunities for Love to attack downfield. Now that you have Jaden Reed back, now that you get Christian Watson fully healthy. I think Jalen Johnson and Kyler Gordon being back is going to mean a lot for the Bears' defense, but if they can't get pass rush, I feel like this Packers team can throw the ball up and down the field on them, and if the Bears have to play from behind, if they have to be in obvious passing scenarios, I think Caleb Williams has played fairly well this season, but there have just been inaccuracies.

13:33There have been drops. There have been wrong routes, run at the wrong depth for the Bears' receivers, And I just feel like going up against this Packers team that is built to play with a lead and built to win with their pass rush, especially when you might not have Theo Benedett, who also wasn't really a good pass protector in the first place. He might be starting Ozzy Trapilo in his place. That doesn't bode well going up against Micah Parsons. So it just feels like there are a lot of compounding factors for the Packers where their aces can overwhelm sort of the best players or the aces for the Bears.

14:07It's one of those things where the matchup, you just kind of break it down on paper and you're like, man, the Packers really have the edge in a lot of these areas. And I know if you just look at the numbers for the season, it's like, all right, there's stuff about this Bears team that might not be totally real. I want to see, if I'm a Packers fan, I want to see Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love put on a clinic in this game. I mean, to your point, that Bears defense is just so feast or famine. It's like, if they create a turnover, great. If they don't create a turnover, they're probably not getting a stop.

14:39Like they're literally one of the worst defenses in the NFL if they're not creating a turnover. So if I'm a Packers fan, I'm like, all right, this is the whole point of Matt LaFleur and Jordan Love is a game like this where you're saying we should be able to cook these guys. We should be able to have an efficient offensive day. As long as we don't turn the football over, we should be able to run it. We should be able to create explosives. Like you said, we should be able to avoid negative plays and sacks because the Bears don't have a great pass rush. And I just want to see it. Now, there have been times this year, whether it's full games or halves or quarters or possessions, where you go, what is happening with this Packers offense?

15:16Recently, it hasn't looked like that. It's looked really good the last couple of weeks. Love has been heating up there. So yeah, I think that's kind of the matchup on that side of the ball that I'm interested in. And that Bears run game you talked about, man, that was beautiful last week. That was just like teaching tape, clinic tape, whatever you want. if you have your favorite Phil nerd, maybe it's JP on social media. I mean, that segment of the internet is just going crazy with what the Bears did, and rightfully so, last week. And JP, that's where I look at the matchup because I feel like the Bears' offense is built on two things, running the football and explosive pass plays.

15:53And that happens to be where the Packers are the strongest. I mean, you look at it statistically, they are fourth in explosive play rate and fifth in rushing success rates. So I'm interested. You said you feel like you're probably more bullish than the general public on Caleb Williams and how he's played this season. Could this be like a big spot for, you know, the Caleb Williams fans to be like, hey, you know, if he leads them to a victory here and plays clean football and is efficient and accurate, it really could be a moment for him on Sunday, I feel like. I definitely think so, and I think it's because when you look at this Packers defense, they are so good at turning off the water in the middle of the field.

16:34They play a lot of inverted cover, too, where they have Xavier McKinney or Evan Williams as your middle-of-the-field defender instead of a guy like Quay Walker or Edren Cooper or Isaiah McDuffie. That allows those guys to be a lot more blitzers, be a little bit more effective closer to the line of scrimmage. And that's where I actually think that Caleb Williams has done a lot better as the season has gone on. He has been ripping a lot of passes over the middle of the field, but there have just been inconsistencies outside the numbers. That's where the inaccuracies really pop up. A lot of the drops have popped up in those areas, but that also is the area where the Packers defense is the most vulnerable.

17:10Because you want to attack those outside corners who haven't played that well this season, I just wonder if this is going to be a game where the Bears passing offense wins them the game. Can Caleb Williams, can Roma Dunze, can DJ Moore create enough explosives on the outside edges of the field to really force the Packers defense to respect their passing game? Yeah, I think that's probably what it'll come down to. Because like we said, the other matchups, now you don't know, obviously turnovers and special teams, who knows. But I got to say, you know, Ben Johnson, if he is very close to me to being like, don't bet against him as an underdog category.

17:49I know it's only his first year, but from what I saw last week and just some of these game plans you've seen this season, he has been very, very impressive. So I'm with you. I think the objective, you know, analytical factors, say Packers, I will not be surprised if the Bears keep it close or even if the Bears win this game in the fourth quarter. So that's going to be a fun one. Bears, Packers, Sunday afternoon. All right, next game is Chiefs-Texans. And I got to remind you that FanDuel is now live in Missouri. We're talking about the Chiefs playoff chances here in a second. But FanDuel is celebrating with a ton of great promotions and rewards for everyone.

18:29So sign up today. Take advantage all week long. You do not want to miss out. And just JP, let's go through the numbers here with the Chiefs playoff chances before I give you my headline. They have a 37 % chance to make the playoffs. Again, this is from the Athletics Playoff Simulator. If they lose, it goes down to 12 % unheard of during the Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid era. So big, big game for them. If they win out, 97 % chance to make it here. So this is a monster. This is really an unprecedented situation for Mahomes and Reed. So what's actually going to happen here? My headline, JP, Mahomes, Reed, stay alive with brilliant performance against Houston.

19:19Okay, so here's the deal. You break this game down and you go, the Texans have like a great shot here. I mean, the Chiefs are likely playing without three starting offensive linemen, including three of their tackles. And I think if you chose a defense to not have to, you don't want to play when you're down three offensive linemen, honestly, it's this Texans defense with Will Anderson and Daniil Hunter and Tameko Ryans, who has built his reputation on stifling great quarterbacks on paper. This is kind of a disastrous matchup for Kansas city, but sometimes what I have to do is ignore the evidence in front of my eyes and rely on the pedigree.

19:57And again, I said, the whole point of Matt LaFleur and Jordan love is a, is a game like this. The whole point of Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid is a game like this, where your backs are against the wall and you're shorthanded and you have a tough opponent and you just come up with something. Whether it's Reid scheming or game plan or Mahomes just digging deep and extending plays and finding a way. This might look stupid on Monday, JP, but I'm going to say the Chiefs find a way. Where are you with this? Is this just me wish casting like a sports movie or something like that, what's actually going to happen in this game?

20:32I actually think I'm going the other way on this one. Okay. I think given all of the injuries up front for the Chiefs, Josh Simmons is going to be out. He's on IR. Jawan Taylor's hurt. You're potentially going to be without Trey Smith. So that's three of your starting five. You're having to move Wanya Morris to left tackle, Jalen Moore to right tackle. And like you said, this is not a team that you want to go against without three of your starting five offensive linemen. I just think the Texans do such a good job of dragging teams into the muck with them. And even within that, I think the Texans' offense has started to find some sustainability on offense.

21:08The duo of Ed Ingram and Trent Brown on the right side of the line gives them a little bit more oomph, a little more pop as a run-blocking unit. And I think even without C.J. Stroud in the lineup, they started to use a lot more boot, a lot more play action, sort of get the quarterback out of the pocket to avoid obvious passing scenarios where the offensive line might be a little deficient. You get a lot more growth from Jaden Higgins, Jalen Noel, Woody Marks has run the ball really well. I'm not saying the Texans offense has turned a corner by any means. But I think they have the ability to just get to 17 points.

21:42And if you get to 17 points with this defense, you're probably going to win the game. This is unheard of, JP. seven years 17 points is all you need to beat the Chiefs oh my god what is happening if you would have told me that someone was going to utter that sentence to me before this season about the Kansas City Chiefs I'd be like oh what Mahomes is out when did he land on the I have but you're probably not wrong I don't think see I think of it less as the problems with the Chiefs and just how good this Texans defense is from top to bottom at every level they have speed. They have impact players.

22:19I think what's really been understated this season is a couple things for the defense. One, Kalen Bullock's growth at safety. He has become a true cover safety where anything in his range, he's going to go get it. He's going to go make a play on the ball. He's causing problems at the point of attack. And then on the interior, they just put Tim Settle on IR, which I think is low-key a big move for them. But Tommy Togiai has played really well defending the run. That has always been their issue. Because they play a really wide four down front, you're susceptible to a lot of gap scheme stuff, a lot of trap, a lot of crunch.

22:54We all remember the game last year against the Ravens where Derrick Henry ran for almost 200 yards using just trap and wham and just getting downhill quickly on this defense. Tommy Togiai has stepped up in a big way, and that just shores up this defense so much to the point where if you're in an obvious passing situation, I really, really struggle to figure out how anybody can beat this defense, especially against a team like the Chiefs, where offensively, I know how well Andy Reid can scheme up and draw against man coverage. That just has not worked this season. The Chiefs receivers, I believe, are 25th in the NFL in yards per route run against man coverage.

23:34They're a top 10 unit in zone coverage this season. So you can tell that they have a bunch of guys that are able to run into voids. Rasheed Rice is good at finding voids. He's sort of similar to Travis Kelsey in their ability and their rapport with Mahomes in finding those voids and zones. But when you play man coverage against them, they don't have a receiver outside of Rice. And even Rice is more of a slot. You're going to get him against safeties, linebackers. They have nobody on the outside who can win against physicality. and that's the one thing the Texans bring on the outside of man coverage.

24:09They're going to beat you up. So I just feel like they're, again, like we were talking about with Bears and Packers, there are a lot of compounding factors on this side of the ball where if you're the Texans, if you just get the 17, if you can control this game, given the way that the Chiefs have played in close games this season, I just think the lack of pass rush has really started to come back and bite them this season. If they can't get pressure on the Texans, then I just feel like they're putting themselves in a hole that they really can't dig themselves out of. I'm so curious, you know, how many points, as you mentioned that, I'm like, how many points is it going to take to win this game?