Do We Believe in the Colts, Chargers, or Bucs? With Mike Sando.

0:00Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host Sheil Kapadia. Today, we try to figure out what's real and what's not as we look ahead to week three, a little game of do you believe and to help me sort it out. It's my friend from the athletic, one of the best in the business, Mike Sando. And Mike, I got to start by telling you one thing I do believe during because I was doing some research today and this is going to catch you completely off guard. So if you don't know what I'm talking about, that's okay. The Colts mascot, Blue, is the best in the NFL. Did you see him during last week's game? Do you know anything about the legend of Blue?

0:35Mike Sando:I do not know anything about the legend of Blue. Too many games probably going on at the same time. I can see, picture something vaguely. What did Blue do? Yes, so the end of the Colts game, we're going to talk about the Colts today. We're going to talk about a couple other teams. End of the Colts game, the Colts missed that field goal. He collapses to the ground. I mean, and he stands right at the goalpost, gets back up. They call the penalty. They make it. And then he does like the pelvic thrust of the Philly fanatic. I don't think they're related, but I would imagine he was inspired by the Philly fanatic at some point in his life.

1:09So yeah, big weekend for Blue. I was going on a deep dive. Wikipedia, Instagram, best mascot in the NFL.

1:16Mike Sando:And I think it's key that, you know, let's face it, Blue hasn't had a lot of things to thrust about in recent years. So to be ready to thrust early in the season. I mean, these guys probably study film of the other mascots. You know, they're like, you know, I want to do some thrusts, you know, and he can finally do it. So he's ready. Stay ready. So you don't have to get ready. Blue, you did it. You did a nice job last weekend. So you're going to talk Colts. We're going to talk Bucs. And we're going to talk about Chargers. Some kind of early season surprises. What we're seeing. Do we believe it?

1:44Do we not believe what we're seeing? So let's take a break. We come back. We talk about those teams. This is the Ringer NFL show presented by FanDuel and the NFL is officially back. So if you're going to be in it, be in it with FanDuel. They've got the goods, futures, live betting, SGPs, your way bets, all of it. The app's clean, it's fast. And yeah, when you win, you get paid instantly, which is nice because Sunday patience doesn't exist. So get your bets in, build something bold and make every game feel bigger. Download the FanDuel app or head to fanduel.com slash ringer NFL to get started. The Ringer is committed to responsible gaming.

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4:06All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show. Let's get to it. Do you believe? That's the name of the show today. Item number one, Mike Sando. Do you believe in the Indianapolis Colts and specifically the Indianapolis Colts offense? So they're 2-0. You and I like the nerd stats. You know, they're first in EPA per drive. They're first in success rate. Daniel Jones's numbers are through the roof. Do you believe what you're seeing with the Indianapolis Colts so far?

4:35Mike Sando:I believe they're going to be a lot better. This is totally unsustainable. I stacked all of the Colts' offenses through the Peyton Manning era by EPA per play. And this would be number two to the 2004 famous Colts that was maybe one of the best offenses ever. So if we stack all of the offenses full season, you know, since 2000, there's 800 and some offenses. And they're like, they're like right after the 2013 Broncos, the 2000 Rams and the 2011 Patriots. So that is not happening. But I do think, you know, before the season, I thought, OK, Colton, AFC Seahawks and NFC are two sort of mid level teams that are being underrated a little bit because of no.

5:18Mike Sando:Let's face it, no one's going to get super excited about Daniel Jones or even Sam Darnold. And there's some questions of moving on from Darnold. But you can run your offense with Daniel Jones. So I do think that they, I would say this, I think they have a good chance to be possibly in the top half of the league offensive EPA. I could see that being for the season for them. And that would be a win. I mean, I wasn't bullish on him. I was one of the people you're probably talking about. Like, man, they're getting crushed. I was, I just thought we've seen Daniel Jones and I know it was in a different environment and I kind of liked the supporting cast, but I just felt like he's had all those injuries.

5:57And there was a version of Daniel Jones earlier in his career where I said, I see the tools here, like in the right situation, he can be a good quarterback, but this version of him after those injuries, are we still going to see that guy? So this is one where my eye test and sort of the analytical part of my brain don't agree on this because I feel like the eye test I've watched the first two weeks here, Mike and Shane Steichen is in his bag. I mean, beautifully schemed up explosive plays. Tyler Warren looks great. Jonathan Taylor looks great. Michael Pittman Jr. Like they have a nice group of pass catchers that do a bunch of different things.

6:33And then I'm given like Jones has looked good. It's not just everything schemed up for him. Like he's making throws under pressure. He looks healthy. He looks comfortable. And so I'm looking at part of it going, the AFC South is bad. The Texans don't look great. Could they be some version of last year's Vikings with Sam Darnold, where it's like this quarterback who was getting beaten up, got in the right situation, and maybe they do really overachieve here?

6:56Mike Sando:Well, I think definitely in the division. So Daniel Jones, one of his big issues, he is not consistently accurate, okay? And so he still isn't this year. I mean, shoot, he turns quick game, throws that to the right side, and it goes, he's thrown to, you know, Shaquille O 'Neal cannot catch this pass, you know. So he had a wide open touchdown, you know, up maybe the right kind of seam. And he just sails the guy in the end zone. So it's not like he's been just completely on point, but I think he's consistent enough for Shane Steichen to be in his bag and get some results. And I think what we're seeing is just how hard that was with Anthony Richardson.

7:31Mike Sando:So if you look, I've got a little filter in our true media shield where it's just all the quarterbacks by the different air yards bands. And so I was looking at like Flacco and if you go to start of last year, Flacco and Daniel Jones, they complete 75 % of the less than 10 air yards, right? 75%. Well, Richardson's 60%. What's a big difference? Because so much of your offense is like, you know, that area of the field. So just hitting 15 more percent of the layups, Keep some drives alive. You know, you're going to get, someone's going to make a play after the catch and go for 20 yards when you're not expecting it on third and four, right?

8:11Those things just be, you're not as limited.

8:15Mike Sando:I think he still limits you because he's not amazing. But guess what? Trevor Lawrence ain't consistently accurate either. CJ Stroud is coming off of a tough year last year, still doesn't look so great this year. So why not Indy, you know? Why couldn't they? They've been close anyway. Like I do this thing every year before the year. And it's like, I pull these people in the league and we rank the teams in each conference, one to 16. And one of the great comments was the Colts just always seem to find their way no matter what to be like within a couple of games of 500. There's like this gravitational pull with them.

8:49Mike Sando:So I think they've raised their floor tremendously by just being able to, maybe the metaphor is complete 75 % of your layups instead of 60%. That's right. So that's the bullish case. You know, I think we've given the bullish case. Now there is, I feel like there's another end of this where we remember last year, the New Orleans Saints through two weeks of the season, everyone's really excited. Derek Carr, Clint Kubiak. Oh my gosh, this offense. And part of me wonders, are the Colts just going to be that type of team? Because Daniel Jones, previous three seasons, I mean, statistically has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL.

9:28And like you mentioned the outlier season, man, you just go to the pro football reference page and look at every column and it's like outlier completion percentage yards per attempt set any stat you want to look at. It's like, he's never been anywhere close to this before, even in 2022, his career year giants go to the playoffs. Like I think he was around 12th in EPA per play. So it's like, he was a little bit above average. So part of me wonder. And so that's where I settled, you know, not to go negative right away, but when I have to answer, do you believe what's more likely that they're really good?

10:01You know, let's say top 10 type offense or that they're a version of the 2024 saints. I go more 2024 saints, but I think you laid it out. The most likely outcome is probably somewhere in the middle there where they're competing for a playoff spot in December.

10:14Mike Sando:And remember with the saints too, they were five and five when Carr started, you know, it obviously the wheels came off. They played a lot of games with super limited quarterback play too. So, yeah, I could totally see that Daniel Jones is not amazing, right? But I do think Shane Steichen, and you know this better than me because you're in Philly, but I think Shane's good. And I think it was just a little bit too hard for him last year with the super talented quarterback who can't really run an offense yet. Yeah, definitely he's got to be loving this more than previous years where it's like, hey, at least for the most part, the ball's going where it's supposed to.

10:50So the durability thing, you mentioned it with Carr. It's been a big thing with Jones too. Has started 12 games or more in his career three times. So that's something to keep an eye on as well.

10:58Mike Sando:I'm worried too because he got freaking blindsided on one. I was going through all these plays. There was a scramble and it was like, don't get down, please. You know, that sort of a thing. No doubt about it. All right, let's take a break. We come back and then we talk Chargers and Bucs. Both teams coming off impressive. Monday night wins, do we believe? the ringer nfl show is brought to you by fanduel football fans every nfl thursday is your chance to hit the jackpot on fanduel because with fanduel's thursday touchdown jackpot you can win a share of two million dollars in bonus bets each week to get in on this thursday's action all you have to do is place an anytime touchdown scorer bet before the game between the dolphins and bills kicks off and if your player scores the first or last td of the game you'll win your bet plus a share of bonus bets So this Thursday, any play can be the play of the game with FanDuel.

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12:26Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut.

12:34Mike Sando:This episode is brought to you by Duluth Trading Company. Whether it's the 19th inning, the 12th quarter, or the 5th and a half shift, Overtime isn't going anywhere, which is why Duluth builds hard-working gear for folks who work their butts off. Their work shirts are built for function and comfort, giving a big foam middle finger to all that's futile. And the new ultra-tough no-quit utility shirt is equipped with cooling and wicking tech to keep you comfortable. Give no quits. Shop at a Duluth store near you or at DuluthTrading.com. All right, back on the Ringer NFL show. Item number two, Mike.

13:08do you believe in the Chargers as real AFC contenders? So 2-0 to start the season. They host the Broncos on Sunday. Offense performing pretty well. Defense, very impressive performance. Monday night, can they make that leap? Because I think right now we could say if we had to pick playoff teams, you'd probably, most people I think would have the Chargers in there. But can they make that leap to know? This is actually a team to watch out for in the AFC.

13:34Mike Sando:I think they'll win a playoff game this year. I think they'll get over that hump. And, you know, I'm not in that conference. I mean, look, we don't know if Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are going to go, how far they're going to go, because these teams got to play each other and play Mahomes and they're good. So I just like what I'm seeing. And I'll tell you, I think we were wondering coming into the year or especially, you know, seeing last year, like, how's this mix going to be with with Jim Harbaugh, three yards cloud of dust, Greg Roman, super run offenses with Justin Herbert. And the first two games, and even towards the end of last year, they're way more pass-oriented than we thought they were going to be.

14:12Mike Sando:And I do the Cook Index, which was kind of making light of Russell Wilson let Russ Cook. And all we're looking at is how often do you pass on the early downs before the two-minute warning in the first half? It's kind of your neutral passing. And they're over 75 % in the first two games. The next team's like 65. The league average is like 53. so that and if you look last seat late last season maybe when Herbert was a little healthier and they were getting a little more confident there were some high games too so here's my stat the Chargers 420 games since 2000 their first two games this year ranked sixth and ninth in the Cook Index for how often they've passed and they've had Philip Rivers flinging around with you know and and they've had they've had guys who threw the ball uh you know and even Herbert early in his career really threw the ball.

15:00Mike Sando:So I think I'm believing, I don't know how you go back to putting the lid on the offense when now it seems like they've got a few more weapons and your quarterback's gained some confidence. Has a couple of nice wins early. I think the win in the opener was huge from a confidence standpoint for them. There's been something missing with Justin Herbert. I don't know what it is, but I think there's a little bit of mojo gained when you win against Kansas City and now you're actually putting the ball in his hands. It's like a vote of confidence to me. Yeah, it's so funny during that Monday night game.

15:32I think they were talking about, oh, the Chargers want to run the ball. And I think all the nerds were like, no, no, they were they passed the ball a lot at the end of last year. And in week one, they passed the ball a lot. And that's what they're doing. A lot of play action on early downs. And like you said, putting the ball in his hands. And it's looked good without a, you know, maybe a great offensive line without a great pass catching group. I would say other than Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, just the quarterbacks to two weeks. I mean, I think Herbert's right there with anyone. And then the defensive side of the ball.

16:02I mean, Jesse Minter has to be on the short list of right now, best defensive coaches in the NFL. I always like to just look at the talent you have and are they overachieving, you know, achieving where they should or underachieving. And I just look at that depth chart and I'm like, I like Derwin James. I like Deion Henley. He's emerging as a star, but they don't have, you know, top five, top 10 talent in the NFL. And they've been maybe the best defense in the NFL through two weeks.

16:29Mike Sando:And if you go to the start of last season, I was just looking at this and I included the playoffs. The Chargers are fifth in defensive EPA per play. And guess what? Seattle's seventh. Those are both the Baltimore guys, Minter and McDonald. So there's something about these guys. They know what they're doing. It seems like to me, they've got good defenses. Yeah, I think they're flexible. bull. And they, I don't know if he, you hear stuff like they know how to teach a bunch of different things and not overwhelm the players, those types of things. Like think of, and think of this, the chargers before that had a defensive coach and they were like bottom five and the Seahawks were bottom five with Pete Carroll for years, the last few years.

17:04Mike Sando:And now you're all of a sudden you're in the top 10. You can't tell me that's not coaching. Yeah, no, they've done a good job. So I think I'm, I'm kind of with you with win a playoff game. I may know on real AFC contenders. I'm not quite there yet just because I look at the talent and it's like, I don't see an above average offensive line. I don't see an above average defensive line. I don't see an above average pass catching group. Like if they make noise in the AFC, it's going to be a very impressive coaching job. And that's possible. Or it's possible that like you said with Herbert, this is just a year where in those big moments or in those big games, things click.

17:37So I think they have that ceiling, but I can't quite get there where I'm saying I'm putting them in kind of that top tier in the AFC. Yeah, same. Okay. All right, last one. Do you believe, Mike Sandow, item number three, that the Bucs are real contenders in the NFC? What do you got?

17:57Mike Sando:The last three words in the NFC make it a little bit more possible. I have felt like they're sort of in a tier of their own where super high floor, you can put them down for 10, 11 wins, but do I think they're going to push all the way through. I kind of don't. But in the NFC, I think there's a different path. Like if we were to say, who do you like better, Tampa or the Chargers? Well, if the Chargers were in the NFC, you might believe more, wouldn't you? Yeah. Yeah. Like you might say, hey, I think they can go to the championship game. But I have felt coming into the year, you sort of had Philly, Green Bay, and depending on Detroit, maybe if their coordinator situation isn't a disaster, Those were kind of the top three.

18:40Mike Sando:And then I put Tampa sort of in its own tier there where I feel safer about them than I do about, let's just say, San Francisco or Washington. There's a couple of those types of teams that have gone further in the playoffs recently, but have some real question marks. Like, I don't know if they're going to do it. I feel like Tampa Bay is safer than that, but I'm not on them enough to put them above those top three. Does that make sense? Yeah, I think I'm a yes on this one, though. I think I'm a little more bullish than you. And I wasn't there before the season. You know, I was making, I thought the hipsters, they were like, ah, you know, the bucks are the sleeve.

19:15And I'm like, everybody settled down, you know, on the box. They didn't even win a playoff game last year. I thought that win Monday night was one of the most impressive wins by it's only two weeks. I don't want to go overboard here, but through two weeks, that was one of the most impressive wins of the season. You know, you don't have Tristan worse. Your right tackle goes down in the first quarter. you're going up against the defense where the Texans at times, it feels like they got 14 guys out there who all want to rip your head off. By the way, it's just like the most violent unit in the NFL.

19:45And then you face adversity down the stretch. You lose the lead to Oh four left. You're down by five to go 80 yards on 11 plays. And I think they had one third or fourth down in there. Like it didn't actually look that hard to go right down the field. And just overall, that was, I think, an 84th percentile offensive performance by the Bucs. 25 first downs against that Texans defense. So I looked at that and I thought about the questions I had coming into the season about, hey, you lost Liam Cohen, Josh Grisard. I'll be honest. I knew nothing. I knew very little about the guy. You probably knew stuff about the guy.

20:20I thought, all right, I don't know that this is going to work out for the Bucs. But the way they move the ball offensively and then a veteran defensive coach, I kind of think they have a chance to make some noise against some of these teams that are talked about top tier in the NFC.

20:34Mike Sando:I say they have a chance to. I do. I'm just not going to favor them. Like to me, I think they would lose to a Green Bay. You know, that type of a team is I think a little bit better. But I'm with you that I think they can advance in the playoffs. And, you know, as far as the coordinator thing, I mean, when you keep being good on offense across all these coordinators who know who had never been coordinators before, maybe you just have a good team. You know, maybe they just have a good offense and they have a good quarterback and they don't have terrible coordinators. But, you know, Dave Canales, Liam Cohn, Josh Greer, they're probably, you know, one of them's probably really good.