Fact or Fiction? Seahawks as NFC Favorites, Eagles Trade for Jaelan Phillips, Kevin Stefanski's Future, and More!

0:00Welcome to the Ringer NFL Show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia. Today, we're playing a little game of fact or fiction. I mean, there was so much news that came out of week nine, trades, injuries, coaching stuff. I wanted a way to be able to touch on all of it. So I'll present you with a taker topic I'll call fact or fiction, and then I will explain myself. Then at the end, I had to touch on the tricky quarterback situation in Arizona after that Monday night win over the Cowboys. In other words, are we sure they're going back to Kyler Murray, the Arizona Cardinals, next week or whenever he's healthy?

0:36So we'll talk about that. No guest today. It's a solo pod. I just had too much to say. Let's take a break, come back, and get to all of it. This is the Ringer NFL Show presented by FanDuel. the best place to bet the NFL all season long. FanDuel's got it all. Same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live, and your way so you can build the bet that fits your play. And Missouri, get excited because FanDuel's coming your way December 1st. Download thefanduel.com slash RingerNFL to get started. Must be 21 plus and present in select states and 18 plus in DC, Kentucky, and Wyoming. gambling problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com.

1:22Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. They say you can tell a lot about a person by the contents of their freezer. So what does a bottle of Jägermeister say? It says you have standards. You don't cut corners. And you like your Jägermeister shots the way they're meant to be enjoyed. Ice cold. As for the frozen taquitos and mystery leftovers, we'll keep that between us. Drink it cold or don't drink it at all. Jägermeister. Damn, that's cold. Drink responsibly. Jägermeister liqueur, 35 % alcohol by volume. Imported by Masked Jägermeister, U.S. White Plains, New York.

2:12All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show doing a little fact or fiction. First topic here, the Seahawks are the favorites in the NFC. I'm going fiction for now. So Seahawks have generated a ton of buzz after their impressive Sunday night win over Washington. And I think it's warranted. I think they are really, really good. I think they are on the short list of NFC contenders. If you ask me who has the best body of work in the NFC so far this season, I think I would probably say Seattle. well, all right, so why am I going fiction here? So I got two reasons. The first one really isn't that fun to talk about.

2:51It's just, can I see Sam Darnold do it in a big spot before I assume that he can do it in a big spot? Is that too much to ask? He's been great. I was completely wrong about him. I was wrong about the signing. No qualifiers with what he's done so far. I don't think it's been fluky. I think it's been real. It's been legit. But if we're talking favorites, I've just seen these other quarterbacks, Matthew Stafford, Jalen Hurts specifically, they have done it when the pressure has been on in big games, in the playoffs. And Darnold just hasn't checked those boxes yet. We haven't seen that yet with Sam Darnold.

3:27So I think he can do it, but we haven't seen him do it. And so we just have last year to go off of. So that's one thing. And then the other thing I have my eye on with Seattle, it's how they want to play. And Greg Olson had this tweet that got a lot of attention, at least in my little corner of the nerdy, you know, nerdy internet. It got a lot of attention where he said, can we all agree on one thing? Seattle is not a good rushing team. They are a heavy personnel passing team. If defenses are striving to stop the run, they are mistaken. And so some people seem to lose their minds over this tweet.

4:06I didn't think it was a dig. I thought it was actually a great point. And the point is that the Seattle Seahawks want to run the football. They run it at the fourth highest rate in the NFL, but they're actually not a very good running team. They rank, I mean, by any metric you look at, they are a below average running team when it comes to efficiency. So it's really the one area of their team that they haven't been able to figure out yet this season. And the thing is, it hasn't really mattered. And that's because of the way they want to play. So they want to put big bodies on the field, have your defense load up to stop the run, and then they throw on you.

4:41That has been their secret sauce. It hasn't been the run game. It's been what happens when a defense acknowledges that, hey, they want to be a running team. How do we have to defend them? And then all of a sudden they create explosive plays in the passing game. So Seahawks have been producing explosive plays at the highest rate in the NFL when you look at their passing game. So as we look forward here, you know, can they keep playing like that? That's the question. Can they create those explosive plays when opponents know they have to pass? And they very well might be able to. Like, I don't think there's a lot there that suggests, no, this is fluky.

5:17They have to play this way. But it hasn't been a factor yet this season. So I was looking this up earlier today and the Seahawks have attempted just 48 passes when they're trailing this season. That's by far the fewest of any offense in the NFL. So that's one of the things I'm watching the rest of the season. One, can their run game improve? Because at some point teams might not really respect their run game and might instead prioritize, hey, we got to limit these explosive pass plays. If they want to run it a little bit more and if they're a little bit more efficient running the football, that's fine, but they're probably not going to beat us that way.

5:52And then two, what happens if the Seahawks find themselves in a game where they're trailing in the second half and they have to pass the football? We saw a little bit of that in that game against the Bucs earlier this season, but that was really it. And so will we see that? Now their defense is really good. So maybe they won't even be in that situation. It's possible, but that's the other thing I'm keeping an eye on with the Seahawks. So overall, very good team, very fun team, absolutely a contender, but I'm not ready to call them the favorites just yet. So I know you're going to ask me, well, who do you have as the favorites then?

6:28Sheel? And I was just looking at FanDuel. They have the Eagles as NFC favorites. And I think I agree with that right now, just because of the overall talent on the Eagles and the fact that they are the defending champs. The Seahawks have played better than the Eagles through nine weeks this season. But just looking ahead, I think I would go with the Eagles right now. But if you're a frequent listener to this show, you know I change my mind on that pretty much every week. So there are reasonable arguments. Eagles, Seahawks, Rams, Lions, and Packers. I think those are the five teams in my opinion.

7:01If you have any one of those and you say, no, no, this team is the favorite in the NFC, I think you can make a reasonable argument. All right, next topic here, factor fiction. Dan Quinn deserves to get crushed for leaving Jaden Daniels in on Sunday night. This is what happens with the media now. It's like, you know, you criticize someone for something and then someone else feels like they got to go over the top of what you said. Someone else is like, no, I'm going even stronger. And I feel like that's what's happened with Dan Quinn. So I'm going fiction here because I just think there's a fine line with these things.

7:38and people have just, but what I've paid attention to anyway, since that game is that people have gotten a little bit carried away. So I think it's fair to criticize Quinn. I don't think it's second guessing. I think there were a lot of reasonable people questioning it in real time, but also this isn't just a Dan Quinn thing. He's not the only, he's just the only one who got burned by it. I mean, we see it with coaches around the NFL almost every single week where you say, why are they leaving that guy in? in this situation. Now, maybe it changes. Maybe the Jaden Daniels injury is this sort of pivot point where we say, hey, remember when that happened?

8:15After that, Koch just started treating this differently, taking their starters, their starting quarterback specifically out in these blowouts. But again, I just think people have gotten a little bit carried away just attacking Quinn specifically. And I'll tell you what, I appreciate that Dan Quinn took accountability for this. He met with the media on Monday. He said he slept on it. And then he told reporters, I just missed it. That is 100 % on me. He said he's been thinking about it nonstop. And I actually believe him. Now, I like to rip coaches left and right and call them frauds and phonies.

8:51And they're so arrogant. All those things. I mean, one of my favorite things to do, quite honestly. But Dan Quinn doesn't exactly fall into that category. That's not his rep. His rep is that he is someone who's generally likable and generally a pretty genuine guy. He's sort of an exception when it comes to NFL head coaches. So he screwed up. It sucks. He took the blame for it. But look around the NFL. This is a blind spot for pretty much every coach. So Daniel suffered a dislocated elbow. He's going to be out for a while, according to the commanders. like we said yesterday, the year from hell continues for Washington.

9:34All right, next topic here. Aside from the Jaden Daniels injury, the most impactful injury in week nine was Joe Ault. I'm going fact on this one. And I'll be honest, when I started this exercise, I had this as a fiction, but then I started digging in a little bit more. So the point is there were a lot of injuries in week nine, A lot of impactful injuries in week nine. The Packers lose tight end Tucker Kraft for the season. The 49ers lose rookie defensive end Mikel Williams. They've now lost three of their best players on defense this season to season-ending injuries. There were other injuries as well, but Joe Alt, the Chargers right tackle, is out for the season with an ankle injury.

10:18He's going to have surgery. I don't think the Chargers can overcome this one. I'm not saying they're going to stink or they're going to be a disaster, but just in terms of being a potential sleeper in the AFC, I think you probably could have made that case. But we could go that, hey, if you don't have the Chiefs or the Bills, I think you could have made a case for the Chargers as they got healthier, as they got Joe Alt back from his previous injury. But now I don't see it. And maybe I'll be wrong, but I was looking at their splits with and without Joe Alt this season. with him, they have performed like roughly the sixth best offense in the NFL.

10:55That's in terms of EPA per play. Without him, it's like the 23rd ranked offense in the NFL. Now, there's always going to be some noise with on-off splits, but think about that. We're talking about the difference between like an offense such as the Rams and an offense such as the Carolina Panthers. That has been the difference in their performance. Again, it doesn't mean it's going to stay that way. It's small sample. I get all that, but isn't that what it sort of felt like when you've watched the Chargers this season? I mean, when they've had those O-line injuries, Justin Herbert's just getting crushed.

11:29They don't look like the same team. They need to reach that baseline of competence with their offensive line that just has been tough to reach with both tackles out. They already lost left tackle Rashawn Slater for the season. So no Slater, no Walt. it's almost impossible to lose both your starting tackles when they are the strength of your offensive line and still perform at a high level. So Chargers are six and three. I think they're a fringe playoff team, but they've got the fourth hardest remaining schedule. And I just think this injury limits their ceiling. Their ceiling now to me, it's like if everything goes right for the Los Angeles Chargers, maybe they're playing in the divisional round.

12:11I don't know if I'm being too harsh. That's how I feel. If a lot of things go right, maybe they're playing in the divisional round, but it's just hard to see a scenario for me where they are one of the last two teams standing in the AFC. So other injury I considered here as the most impactful was Tucker Craft, Packers tight end. We talked about this in yesterday's show, confirmed on Monday, according to ESPN, that he has a torn ACL. He's out for the season. This is a huge deal. I had Craft as the NFL's best tight end. Now, Brock Bowers was injured at the time, the way he played on Sunday. He might take the belt back there as the NFL's best tight end.

12:50But the point is, Tucker Craft is a beast. I mean, he was the single toughest matchup on that Packers offense. He led the team in receiving yards, piled up first downs, piled up catches of 20-plus yards. And for an offense that sometimes looks like it just needs someone to go get a bucket, not having Tucker Craft is a big, big deal. So I am very curious to see what that offense looks like and how Matt LaFleur maybe adjust things, tweak things. Matthew Golden, the rookie first round pick, is there some way for him to play a bigger role for that offense? They have options. I don't know that they have great options.

13:29I don't know that they have proven options. So that one's a real bummer. Tucker Craft, so fun to watch. Hopefully he gets healthy, comes back next year, maybe takes the belt back as the best tight end, but that's a tough one for the Green Bay Packers. All right, let's take a break. We come back, got some more to get to. Kansas City Chiefs, Eagles make a trade. Kevin Stefanski probably aren't even paying attention. I'll get to all of those when we come back. This episode is brought to you by Apple. Before it was Ringer NFL, it was just an idea. I started with just a mic and a Mac and the need to discuss all things football.

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15:26So shout out to Chris. He was mentioning during a call we had today that he's not so sure that the Chiefs are going to be okay. Well, Chris, I disagree. I am calling this a fact. The Kansas City Chiefs are going to be just fine. I was like, guess which team has the best odds to win the Super Bowl right now? At this very moment, it's the Kansas City Chiefs at plus 550, even after that loss against the Bills on Sunday. So they're 5-4 right now. If the playoffs started today, they'd be out. They'd be the 8th seed. But the thing is, the playoffs don't start today. The Chiefs still get to play the Broncos twice.

16:06They get to make up ground in the division if they win those games. And even if they end up being a wildcard team, like, who cares? Of course they can win three straight games on the road. I have no doubt about that. For other teams, I have doubts about whether they'd be able to do that. But if the Chiefs are healthy and have Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid and Steve Spagnuolo, of course they can win three games on the road en route to the Super Bowl in the AFC, especially when there's no juggernaut in the AFC this season. So I just, I don't think they're really in a bad spot. They had a bad game Sunday.

16:39Buffalo's defense played well. Chiefs couldn't hold up in pass protection. But some of this is just regression. You know, last year the Chiefs were 10-0 in one score games. This year they are 0-4 in one score games. No team has beaten them by more than a touchdown. So I look at all those things and I'm like, this is still one of the best teams in the NFL. Their offense works. They're third in EPA per drive, fourth in success rate. And they got good news on Monday, according to Nate Taylor of ESPN. Rookie left tackle Josh Simmons returned to the team's practice facility after missing four games because of a family situation.

17:19So I think their O-line is going to be okay. And if that's the case, they're just going to be hard to beat pretty much every single week. Chiefs get a bye in week 10. Then I think they're going to go on a run. And I think a month from now, six weeks from now, two months from now, when we're having any conversation about the short list of Super Bowl contenders, the Kansas City Chiefs are going to be on that list. All right, next one here. The Eagles overpaid for Jalen Phillips. I'm going fiction on this one. And I've seen this sentiment both locally and nationally, and I just disagree. So the Eagles made a trade on Monday, sent a 2026 third round pick to Miami for edge defender Jalen Phillips.

18:06I actually think this trade is a win-win. A third round pick, it's the going rate for trades like this. It's all about precedent. And the 49ers a couple of years ago gave up a third for Chase Young. I think that's a pretty good comp here. Years before that, Von Miller got more than that. Now, Von Miller is a much more impactful player, was a much more impactful player then than Jalen Phillips is now. But you get the point. I mean, usually when you're trading for a quality starter in season at the deadline, it's hard to get those guys for anything less than a third or fourth round pick, especially when it's a premium position like this, when it's a pass rusher, when it's a cornerback.

18:46We saw that with Marshawn Lattimore last year when it's a wide receiver. I mean, we got a lot of examples of that over the years with wide receivers and you go, whoa, they give up that for what that's just what the price tends to be in season. So when we did those fake trade shows last week, the week before I had Phillips netting a third rounder, that part didn't really surprise me. The price that the Eagles paid. Now you zoom out and I think from Miami's perspective, it's easy to get this one. They had the front office upheaval. GM Chris Greer is out. They're trying to acquire draft capital and Phillips is in the final year of his deal.

19:23So if you're not going to sign him, you get something for him. That's smart. They did just that. Some of these other teams are like, no, we'll just hold out hope if we're not getting the price. That's stupid. You're costing yourself self-draft capital. So good job by the Dolphins being realistic about what they need to do and where they are this season. And then for the Eagles, I also like it. It's a position of need. Their pass rush has been average at best, probably below average this season. Phillips played for defensive coordinator Vic Fangio in Miami. So I like that because that's one of the variables with these in-season trades.

20:01You're like, how's this guy going to fit from a scheme perspective? You kind of know how he fits. I mean, Vic Fangio has literally coached him before in his scheme. So there's no guesswork there. It's probably a rental. Phillips has had injury issues. So there is some risk here. But I think you take that risk every time. I don't understand people who like when their team has a chance to actually win the Super Bowl where they're like, oh, that third round pick. No, I can't give that up. Like the 91st overall pick. And I just don't understand that. My philosophy is if you have a real shot to win the Super Bowl halfway through the season, the move is to be aggressive and go for it.

20:43I think the mistake teams make a lot of times is they talk themselves into having a real shot. And you're like, come on, you don't have a real, you don't, you actually think you have a shot. You don't have a shot. Why are you giving up draft capital? That's the mistake when the reality doesn't match their perception of how close they are. But that doesn't apply to the Eagles. They are defending champs. And like I said, they've got the best odds to get out of the NFC right now. So it might not work out, but I think you take the swing with this Jalen Phillips trade. One thing to keep an eye on just with how they use him, I thought Phillips had some really impressive reps as an interior pass rusher this year with the Dolphins.

21:20And that's something to keep an eye on. Will Fangio maybe line him up next to Jalen Carter in some packages, in some pass rush situations? So I evaluate every trade on would I have done it? Would I not have done it? And I'm a yes on both sides here. Yes, I would have done it if I were the Dolphins. And yes, I would have done it if I were the Eagles. All right, last topic to get to. This is the beginning of the end for Kevin Stefanski in Cleveland. I struggled with this one, but I think I'm going to go fact on this one. Now, some of you, you probably have no idea what I'm talking about. I assume very few of you are actually paying attention to the Cleveland Browns.

22:03And you should not be paying attention to the Cleveland Browns. That's not a good use of your time. So that's why we have this podcast. I pay attention to the Browns so you don't have to. So let me fill you in on what happened here. Kevin Stefanski, the Browns head coach, announced on Monday that he is giving up play calling duties. This is kind of like the coaching equivalent to the players only meeting. It is a sign that things are not going well, that you're out of answers. What should we do here? Hey, maybe give up play calling duties. Yeah, that'll really change it. It has nothing to do with Dylan Gabriel or however many different offensive line combinations we've had this year or the lack of talent that we have on this football team.

22:47But anyway, first-year offensive coordinator Tommy Reese will take over as we prepare for a battle of two juggernauts this weekend. The Browns and the Jets. I mean, honestly, I said it before, I'll say it again. They should play that game at like 6 a.m. Monday morning. Just use it as an experiment. How many people would actually watch this football game 6 a.m. Monday morning? Now, I don't think they're going to do that. So back to Stefanski. I don't know many play calling head coaches who on their own give up play calling duties without getting that little nudge from somebody in the organization.

23:22Now, don't get me wrong. The Browns offense has been horrendous. One of the worst in the NFL by pretty much any metric you want to look at. But I do wonder, you know, old Jimmy Haslam. the Browns owner? Was he tuning into Bengals Bears on Sunday and being like, wait, we had that Joe Flacco. Why is he doing that with the Bengals? And he looked so bad here. Now, you and I know that the Browns do not have Tee Higgins. The Browns do not have Jamar Chase, but Jimmy Haslam, it's possible he might not be quite as reasonable. So it's just speculation. I don't know what actually happened, but I do wonder if Defansky got that little nudge like, okay, let's try someone else.

24:05Just try to jumpstart the offense. Maybe be a little bit more respectable here down the stretch. And if you're Stefanski, you sort of don't have a leg to stand on. You feel like you might be coaching for your job. You don't really have any leverage. So you say, okay, sounds good, boss. Go for it. Tommy Reese, here you go. You have Dylan Gabriel's number? Okay, cool. Yep, let's go jumpstart the offense just like Skipper said over here. And we'll see how the rest of the season goes. So I think Stefanski can be a good head coach. But I was looking, their record, they're 5-20 the last two seasons.

24:47That is hard to do, to lose 20 of 25 games. It's actually hard to make the argument that another head coach would be doing worse. So I flip-flopped on maybe where I was a couple of weeks ago, a month ago, two months ago with this situation. For a while, I thought the Browns would be pretty committed with Andrew Barry, Kevin Stefanski, give them a chance to get out of this Deshaun Watson deal, start anew. But now I'm starting to think that they might just feel like, you know what, the Stefanski era, it's run its course. It's time to go in a different direction. And if that happens, I think Stefanski will get a chance to coach somewhere in 2026.

25:28It really does not look like a very impressive pool of coaching candidates if you're looking for somebody. And again, I think in the right situation, I think Stefanski can be a good coach. He has been a good coach before, but there are signs here that his time in Cleveland could be coming to an end. So that's just something I'm monitoring over the next couple months. Again, you don't have to pay attention to it. I'll pay attention to it for you, and I'll let you know if anything worth your time is happening with the Cleveland Browns. That's what the podcast is for. All right. That was fact or fiction.