Favorite Over/Under Win Totals With Anthony Dabbundo

0:00Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia, here today joined by Anthony Dabbundo. We are planting our flags on our favorite over-under win totals for the 2025 NFL season. So you know Dabbundo, or as I call him, you know, affectionately, Tony Bunz from the Ringer Gambling Show. He talks baseball with me on the Ringer's Philly Special. He writes about soccer. He writes about tennis. a true sports renaissance man. What do we call this? The DeBundo Equinox, right? All the sports you love happening at the same time in the next few weeks here. Yes, this is truly like the two or three best weeks of the year.

0:39U.S. Open, baseball in full swing, Phillies in the pennant race, as we talked about yesterday. And I'm excited because we are, what, 10, eight, nine days away from the return of NFL football. So yes, the DeBundo Equinox, September and October are my favorite two sports months of the year for that reason. and I'm excited to be doing this because we have only done baseball before. So now we're in your realm doing NFL. I can't wait to get into win totals, especially because Shields trying to defend his stellar record on picks against the spread from last season. Yeah, we'll see. We'll see how that goes.

1:13But yes, we usually talk NFL on the side, but our first time doing it on the mic. So this is going to be a lot of fun. We each pick three teams. We haven't told each other who they're going to be and we're going to talk about why we are confident neither the overs or the unders. So let's take a quick break. We come back and we get to it. This episode is presented by American Eagle. Whether you're hanging out at home or headed out for a training session, American Eagle has you covered with a ton of new stuff. We're talking super comfy heavyweight hoodies and joggers that look and feel great, sweat-wicking active shorts that are good to go anytime, anywhere, new move-free jeans made from a crazy comfy, real-looking denim, and their biggest underwear collection of the year with striped, solid, and print styles to fill your drawer.

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2:38Serious allergic reactions, increased risk of infections or lower ability to fight them, and liver problems may occur. Before treatment, get checked for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu-like symptoms, or need a vaccine. Explore what's possible. Ask your doctor about Tremphaya today. Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit TremphayaRadio.com.

3:16All right, we're back. on the Ringer and at the show. Was this a hard exercise, DeBondo? Was it like, you know, I have more than three? Was it like it's hard getting to three? How do you feel about your view of the league going into the season? So I have bet seven so far. Okay. I would say on average, I'm around eight or nine. So there may be one or two I add in the next week or so, but I feel pretty good about my seven, but there's definitely a couple that I really like more than others. And so it was pretty simple for me, but I also have one at the end that I think is a fun one that I think I have some good content for.

3:52So I think two were like my two favorites and then the others were, you know, kind of a coin toss to decide which one I was going to pick. All right, let's get to it. Planting our flags on over-under team win totals. Who is your first team? Who do you got? We're going to go to the NFC East and it is the classic regression case against the Washington Commanders. Commanders under nine and a half wins. Wow. Okay. Make the case. What a classic regression case. Explain it to people who aren't in our NFL bubble, why they are a regression candidate. Look, we all loved the commanders. They're a great story.

4:30I think a lot of people were wrong about Jaden Daniels, myself included. I wasn't the biggest Jaden Daniels guy coming into the season last year. And they flew over their win total. They were the Cinderella team of the NFL season. They made it all the way to the NFC championship game. but there was a lot of pixie dust involved in pulling off the 12 wins they did against one of the easiest schedules in the league. They only had one win against a playoff team last year and it was the Eagles without Jalen Hurts for three quarters of the game. A lot of things happened in that game that were kind of fluky as well.

5:01But I just go back to the three key factors. One of which is that Jaden Daniels had arguably the best, but definitely one of the three best rookie seasons of all time. And maybe he is ready to ascend to be in that elite tier of quarterbacks with kind of the big four consensus. Maybe he is. It's possible. Certainly in the realm. But I also think that there's some real downside risk. And we have seen this time and time again. And it could be like week six and we're like, oh, sophomore slump, Jane Daniels. Okay, but not as great as he was last year. I think that's certainly a case that everybody just expects linear progression from these quarterbacks in year two, year three, and it's just not always how it works.

5:42And so I have some skepticism about that as well as his health. So that's number one. Number two is their age. Our friend Brandon Lee Gowton had a tweet the other day talking about how old this commander's team is, how many reliable contributors they have that are over the age of 30. If you adjust for starting 22 expected, they are the oldest team in the NFL. They plugged a lot of holes in free agency over the last couple of years to make up for the fact that they really haven't drafted well. And so I'm concerned about just the age and how that could result in injuries or just decline in performance, whether they're able to get the same level of production from guys that they got last season.

6:18So that's a concern. And then there's the fourth down stuff. I mean, it's the highest variance down. And they weren't just 87%. They weren't just better than the Tush Push Eagles, better than the Tush Push Bills, better than the Mark Andrews Ravens plays. They were the best fourth down team by EPA of the century. And look, that's awesome. Great job by them. I will bet against them doing that again. So I think that there's all these red flags with the schedule and with the age and with the quarterback. And they could be a really good team and go nine and eight next year just because of how tough the schedule is.

6:55They're going to play Jalen Hurts and Dak Prescott four times this year. Last year, one time. All right. I don't disagree with anything you said. You laid it out. Fourth down, you can't be as good as you were last year on fourth down. you laid out that they won a lot of games at the end last year. It wasn't the hardest schedule. Sophomore quarterbacks, we saw it with CJ Stroud the year before, just because you're great as a rookie doesn't mean the next year you're going to be great. I would ask though, isn't a lot of that baked in with the number here? They won 12 games last year and the over-under is nine and a half.

7:28So let's say they regress by a couple games this year. That still puts them at 10 and seven. They upgraded their offensive line. Laramie Tunsell at one tackle spot. They drafted Josh Connerly at the other tackle spot. So I'm not saying they're going to be all pros, but I think they're, I feel pretty good that their offensive line is going to be better than last year. And then the thing I come down to, so I've got the commanders in the playoffs. I started the whole NFL prep process thinking like you were with the regression. And then I looked at the other teams and I remembered how I felt when I watched Jaden Daniels play football last year.

8:01And yeah, he could come back, but you know what? There's also a chance he's just one of those guys and we saw it right away. So I've got them at 10 and seven. So I actually, they're not one of my picks, but I actually predict them to go over. Did you feel that way about TJ Stroud two years ago? Yeah, you're probably right. I did like the Texans last summer. You're right. It's a fair point. There are so many similar vibes too. Even down to the two, I think the acquisitions that are getting a lot of juice and maybe inflating this number a little bit and inflating the perception of them, certainly.

8:31I agree with you. It is certainly somewhat baked in. And like five, 10 years ago when the market wasn't as sharp, the line would probably be 10.5 with some juice to be under. Now it's 9.5. I get it. But if you just derive power ratings for the NFL, and you can do this based on the lines the first couple weeks, they would be rated as the sixth best team by power rating. Do you think they are lower or higher than that? I would have them lower, but maybe not crazy lower. Probably a top 10 team, I would say. Okay. Yeah. I would have them lower. And I have them closer to 11th or 12th. Okay. All right.

9:04And with their schedule, again, being much tougher. And I can't overstate the fact that they got to play Cooper Rush twice as opposed to having to play Dak Prescott. That made a big difference. And even if you don't think Dallas is going to be great this year, they're certainly a more formidable foe with Rush. By the way, Rush beat them last year, which gets to that point too. All the crazy wins that they had against pretty mediocre teams, including those South wins, I'm a little alarmed. But I see the case. But Debo Samuel is a bigger name than he is a production player, I think, at this point in his career.

9:38I have a couple of friends that are Houston fans. They were pretty happy to see Laramie Tunsil shipped off. I don't think that the additions are as much of needle movers as the perception of them would be maybe even two or three years ago. All right. No, I think there is a case for it. And maybe I just don't learn my lesson with these young quarterbacks to bundle. We'll see. All right. You know what? you started off being a hater and took an under. I'm going to start off being a hater and taken under my team. All good things come to an end. We know this, right? A lot of times when streaks are broken in sports, when droughts are ended, it happens in weird ways.

10:16And Mike Tomlin has coached 18 years in the NFL and never had a losing record. In my opinion, one of the greatest streaks in coaching NFL history, maybe the greatest. When you look at just what he got from some of those teams, but you know what? It's going to be weird because he now has a four-time MVP, a quarterback, and this is the year his streak comes to an end. I am planting my flag on the Pittsburgh Steelers going under eight and a half wins. I look at this team and the likelihood of Aaron Rodgers being a good quarterback in his age 42 season. And I've said this stat roughly 700 times this summer, but you know what?

10:57I haven't said it on the Ringer NFL show. So I'm going to say it now. During the Super Bowl era, there is one quarterback who has started more than 10 games in his age 42 season. His name is Tom Brady. I don't, Aaron Rodgers, what we saw last year does not lead me to believe that he's going to join that category with Tom Brady. I look at the offensive coordinator, Arthur Smith. I mean, the hipsters love this guy. I should have mentioned him with Solak on the hipster show earlier this week. since he left Tennessee, I mean, has he been coaching great offenses and I've been missing it because I haven't seen that with Arthur Smith.

11:30They have one known commodity at wide receiver in DK Metcalf. And while I like their defense, I get nervous to your point about the commander's age. TJ Watt, Cam Hayward, Darius Slay, Jalen Ramsey, their best players are all on the wrong side of 30. Finally, they face the 10th hardest scheduled to bundle. No, I see the Pittsburgh Steelers as a seven or eight win team. And I'm planning my flag on this finally being the year that Mike Tomlin has a losing record. What do you think? That is a far bolder call than my call, to be honest. I feel like going against Mike Tomlin. I've done it before, by the way.

12:11You can dig up takes of mine where I've predicted this in other years. I just want to go on the record. But you know what? I feel great about it this year. I mean, for all we know, like Rodgers will go down and they'll still figure out a way. They'll sign somebody off the scrap heap and bring him in. Like, you know, this guy, you know, Mason Rudolph and Duck Hodges were starting games for the Steelers and they were winning. They were somehow winning games. It is really the ultimate, like the turnover margin every year. They're regression proof. Like there is no such thing as turnover regression for the Steelers.

12:41Chris Boswell has never missed a big kick in his entire career. I don't know how they do it. They got some kind of voodoo magic, but I kind of agree. I think if you don't like Pittsburgh this year, though, you should probably look into alternates because there is major blowout potential. And if you had to bet, where would Mike Tomlin be coaching at the start of the 2026 season? What percentage chance is it Pittsburgh? And then who's the number one potential idea for him to go to? Where's the team that's calling out for Mike Tomlin next year? I still think it's pretty high that it's Pittsburgh.

13:16I mean, I would say 85-ish, maybe even higher than that. But if he loses his one thing that he's always had. If he loses? If he loses the never had a losing season thing, they're not as happy with Tomlin in Pittsburgh as I think he gets credit for nationally. I'm looking at all the teams right now. Miami? Would that be a team? That was the first name for me. It was. Okay, that's what you were thinking. Yeah, that's interesting. Him just taking over, give him kind of complete power of everything. saying, look, we're already going ahead to 2026. Where's Mike Tomlin going to be coaching? I don't know.

13:51I feel like they're a stable organization. There have been fans there who've been upset with him in the past, haven't won a playoff game since 2016. And I still think he's getting more with less from that group than other coaches would. So what about the Giants? I'm just looking at my teams here. Now that would be interesting. Mike Tomlin in New York, potentially. It's really funny seeing the Giants PR campaign coming out of training camp. Oh my gosh. Let's talk about this. How quickly until the balloon pops. Yeah. Because the schedule is brutal. And they might be in better team, but they also might go 6-11.

14:25And when they go 6-11, everybody's going to be upset again. So I think Dable, he's bought himself some time here maybe, but once the losses start, it's going to turn very quickly. I can't believe the amnesia people have with watching preseason football. Like I'm just shocked at the Jackson dart takes out there. Like go Google Kenny Pickett preseason, go Google Zach Wilson preseason, Sam Bradford, Sam Bradford preseason. It's crazy. And people are like, Oh, he's got it. You know, like he might be good. I'll allow for the, I don't know how rookie quarterbacks are hard to predict, but the PR I'm with you coming out of there.

15:03It's just absolutely absurd. All right. So DeBundo says he could see it, but you probably don't want to go against Tomlin. I just don't want to do it. What I'll do is there's like a vortex. If the Steelers are way under 500, I'll bet on them. And if they're way over it, I'll bet against them with the, with the assumption that they're just going to somehow find their way. Maybe they'll go. I love that strategy. Yeah. Yeah. That's a good strategy. Keep the eight, eight and one streak. You win your pick. They go under and they keep the streak alive. Cause I think they did have a, a, a season where they were with a tie 500.

15:38So anyway, let's go positive because we've been too negative so far okay go ahead I left my cheese head back in Philly but I'm going Packers over you've written about this he's got the cheese head now I feel bad that I left one we gotta give you a reason to be watching this show on the Spotify app watching the video or on the Ringer NFL YouTube channel yes I've got the cheese head this is also one of my picks so you make the case I'll fill in what you missed, and then we'll talk about how this goes horribly wrong for us. I think I know how this goes horribly wrong for us, but how this goes right for us is that they actually had a lot of things go wrong last year and still went comfortably over their win total and were in the mix for the division.

16:20I mean, they played in a historically good division with Detroit and Minnesota. And yes, I know they went 0-4 in those games, but it's not like they were getting necessarily blown out in those games. They were right there with Detroit in the second meeting. They had their chances in the first one, but the weather was wonky and they kept screwing up in the red zone. So it's not like they were so far behind Detroit. Like if Detroit played Green Bay in the playoffs last year, Detroit would have been like a three and a half point favorite. It would not have been some massive difference in the two teams last year.

16:48I think Green Bay is the most stable team in the North year over year, right? Detroit loses both coordinators. Chicago overhauls the whole regime. Minnesota's got a new quarterback, a rookie. And Green Bay is like, hey, we got Jordan Love. We got our coordinators. We have Matt LaFleur. And when we have Matt LaFleur, we're a top 10 offense every year. basically. And yeah, they didn't even get, like I remember hyping Green Bay last season. I bet they're over. I bet them to win the division. And I said, they got all these interesting receivers. One of them surely will break out. Didn't happen. I said, I really like Jordan Love.

17:20I think he could have a great season. He was kind of injured half the year. Didn't happen. Yet they still went over comfortably in their win total. So I think this is just a bet on stability within the organization and a bet on their offense being really good. And yes, I understand the flaws of the defense. I think we can get into that. But the safeties are really good. I think the coach is good. Scheme's good. And that will make up for potential issues with their pass rush, their corners, not being necessarily premium. I'm not saying that they're the best team in the NFC, but I think they're comfortably 11-win team.

17:53All right. So the number's nine and a half. So you are planting your flag on the Packers going over nine and a half wins. I'm doing the same thing. You laid out the case. I thought that number was way too low. When they win 11 games last year and Jordan Love has three different injuries and Malik Willis has to play two games. I'm like, wait, they're going to come down and win two fewer games this year when you have, like you mentioned it with LaFleur. I mean, you want to be surprised today? Go look at Matt LaFleur's pro football reference page. I mean, he has won 67 % of his games. He's had double digit wins four times in six seasons, and he's never gone worse than eight and nine.

18:31in a season. And you mentioned it. I mean, in terms of offensive efficiency, stable year over year, there's almost no team in the NFL that has consistently produced above average, top eight, top 10 offenses as Matt LaFleur. So I think you laid out the case. Well, you know, they're plus 240 to win the division. That one could be interesting as well. So I'm with you on the Packers. Now here's how it goes wrong. Jordan Love is a high variance quarterback. You know, depending on what week you throw on the Packers, you could be like, man, he looks amazing. Or man, people actually like this guy. So they're 18 and 15 and love starts the last two years and they face the eighth hardest schedule.

19:12So there are some things in there where you say it might not be great, but I feel like the floor and maybe I'll regret saying this. I feel like the floor is pretty high. I mean, if they won fewer than eight games, I would be shocked. And I think they're way more likely to win 11 than they are to win seven or eight. I mean, the job that LaFleur does in generating explosive plays, I think, is the most impressive thing. Like the last two years, and I tend to think that when there's a huge gap between your success rate and your explosiveness, it's like, oh, you can kind of get in the way with something here.

19:44Like, are you scheming something differently? What are you doing to kind of accentuate that gap? And when you keep doing it, I just have to kind of tip my cap and say like, yeah, Yeah, Jaden Reed's just always open 25 yards down the field. And you can go back even to that playoff game against Dallas. Dallas, the vaunted cowboy defense from two years ago, completely picked apart, explosive play after explosive play. And it's not like he has an A.J. Brown-type receiver where you can just throw the ball up and he's going to go beat his man one-on-one. Christian Watson, I think people are inconsistent.

20:15He's pretty inconsistent week to week. Depends on the game with him too. And yet he was a top 10, 15 receiver in yards per route run last year. So they add some stability and more weapons to the mix. I think Kraft could have a breakout year. The same things we said about Green Bay are all true now. They're still really young. And that makes it exciting. I think they could end up... There are scenarios where they're a top three offense. All right. Packers over nine and a half wins. Yeah, I had them, I think, as fourth in my offensive rankings on TheRinger.com. I'm with you. I think they're going to be good.

20:47You had them fifth. All right. So we're planting our flag. The official over for Tony Bunz and Shiel Kapati. We're on the same page as the Packers over nine and a half wins. All right, let me take this cheese head off because it is a little heavy. We'll take a break. We'll come back. We'll get to our final two picks. Listen up. It's finally here. Futures Day happening right now on FanDuel. It's 24 hours of boosts, bonuses, and bragging rights on your football season picks. Today only, all customers get an instant bonus on any football futures bet. If you want to do a straight up over on win totals for your favorite team, go for it.

21:25If your game is eight division winners, you can parlay that. If you want to copy my picks, awesome. You can do that too. Whatever your game is, you choose how you want to play it today at FanDuel. And make sure to check back in the app every three hours for special flash deals on football futures. Head on over to FanDuel to claim your Futures Day promos and lock in your picks. FanDuel, play your game. Must be 21 plus and present in select states or 18 plus and present in D.C., Kentucky or Wyoming. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut.

22:07Paid endorsement. For adults with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis symptoms, every choice matters. Tremphaya offers self-injection or intravenous infusion from the start. Tremphaya is administered as injections under the skin or infusions through a vein every four weeks, followed by injections under the skin every four or eight weeks. If your doctor decides that you can self-inject Tremphaya, proper training is required. Tremphaya is a prescription medicine used to treat adults with moderately to severely active Crohn's disease and adults with moderately to severely active ulcerative colitis.

22:43Serious allergic reactions, increased risk of infections or lower ability to fight them and liver problems may occur. Before treatment, get checked for infections and tuberculosis. Tell your doctor if you have an infection, flu-like symptoms or need a vaccine. Explore what's possible. Ask your doctor about Tremphaya today. Call 1-800-526-7736 to learn more or visit TremfireRadio.com. All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show. Two more picks to be made. We've both got the Packers. DeBundo had under on Commanders. I had under on the Steelers. All right, what is your final take you're planning your flag on?

23:24I feel like I tend to skew negative with these things preseason. It's always better to take unders generally when you're betting on NFL win totals. And I know it's not fun because everybody's like, oh, we want to have optimism. I tend to be the contrarian. But I have an over for my third pick. This is a fun one. I also have an over for my third pick, let's say. Anytime you can bet on the worst team in the history of NFL gambling to go over their win total the next year, you have to do it. Oh my gosh. Tennessee Titans. Wow. Over five and a half wins. Okay. What's the case? So the worst team in the history of NFL gambling that I mentioned, they were 2-15 against the spread last year.