Fraud Watch: Harsh Truths About the Bears, Steelers, and Jaguars!

0:00Austin Gayle:Welcome to the Ringer NFL Show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia. Today, we are putting teams on fraud watch. The exercise is simple. Among the teams that have winning records, who should you probably be a little skeptical of? Because let's be honest, that old Bill Parcell saying you are what your record says you are, completely wrong. Terrible quote, terrible saying. Records can be misleading. and we're going to try to find the teams here whose records are misleading, teams that we look at and say, you know what? I don't think this rest of the season is maybe going to go the way the first part of the season has gone.

0:36Austin Gayle:So I picked out three teams that I think are on Fraud Watch. My guest is Austin Gale from The Ringer. Does he agree or does he agree on one or two? He disagreed on another. So we'll talk it all through. Let's take a break. We come right back with Austin Gale. This is the Ringer NFL show presented by FanDuel. And if you're betting on the NFL, FanDuel is the place to do it. They've got everything. Same game parlays, quick bets for when you want to jump in live, and your way so you can set your own lines. The app's fast, it's easy to use, and best of all, when you win, you get paid out instantly.

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2:59Austin Gayle:All right, we are back on the Ringer NFL show with Austin Gale. Austin, I'm starting us off here. We're doing Fraud Watch. I got three teams and the Chicago Bears. You are on Fraud Watch. You're four and three. You're in the mix for a playoff spot. Austin, I see some pretty glaring red flags with this Bears team. And I think the biggest one is I'm looking at their defense and how much they've benefited from turnovers. I was digging into the numbers today. No team in the NFL over the last five years has benefited more from turnovers in the first eight weeks of an NFL season. Now, I understand turnovers are good.

3:39Austin Gayle:Every coach, they tell us all the time, you got to get turnovers, win the turnover battle. But there's also a randomness to them. And when you look at the Bears defense, it kind of stinks when they're not getting turnovers. Like any metric you want to look at, it's like a bottom three, bottom five unit. I think that's going to eventually catch up to them. And from what I've seen with the offense, there's not enough there where you can say the offense is going to make up for that. Now, maybe it'll get better and it will. But the point here is that if you have like a mediocre offense and you have a defense that is only good when it's getting three turnovers per game, that's not a sustainable recipe for success in the NFL.

4:16Austin Gayle:So I've got the bears as my first team on fraud watch. Where are you with Chicago? I think it's fair. I mean, I don't even know if like, yeah, they have a winning record. They're four and three, but I don't know if they even necessarily believe like they're true contenders this season. I'm glad you brought up the turnover stat. They lead the league in turnovers with 16. They've had 15 in their four wins and they've had one and there are three losses. And a lot of that, I mean, you play Geno Smith, he's going to give you some turnovers. They played Spencer Rattler outside in the rain, kind of a sloppy, windy game.

4:48That's going to happen as well. And obviously, like turnovers are pretty noisy. I think turnovers is a piece of this. And when you look at the defense overall, by like most metrics, it's one of the worst defenses in the league. They rank 22nd in yards allowed per drive, 25th in points allowed per drive, 31st in success rate. Only the Dallas Cowboys, we know that like maybe the worst defense in the league, only the Cowboys rank lower than them in terms of success rate. I think beyond just like the turnovers and the pluckingness. And I know they've had some injuries, like not having Tyreek Stevenson has been rough for them, but they can't create pressure, right?

5:17It's like Montez sweat is by himself along that defensive line that can actually create edge pressure. Gervon Dexter has been fine, but not really much more than that. They're like 28th in the NFL in pressure rate. And I like splitting out pressure rate into when you're only rushing four and when you are rushing more than four, when you're trying to blitz and trying to create pressure. They're 28th when they're rushing four and 26th when they're rushing more than four. They've really struggled against the pass. 29th in net yards allowed per pass. I think what saved them in some of these games, and it's another like noisy metric.

5:44And when you're looking for like frauds, like teams that maybe have winning records or won some games that you didn't expect, but they're probably not like deep postseason contenders. I think turnovers is one. The other one is like third down conversion rate. They rank second in the league and third down conversion rate allowed on defense, which like when you look at the rest of their defense have been pretty, pretty bad. Bears fans who are not just looking at this season and trying to figure out where this team is going to go in the Ben Johnson era with Caleb Williams. It comes down to like, do you believe in the offense?

6:08I mentioned what you think of how the offense has come through, you know, seven games this year. And honestly, like where your take is on Caleb Williams. Now that we have seven games with him and Ben Johnson,

6:17Austin Gayle:I think Ben Johnson is still scheming it up pretty well. You kind of see that every week, even last week, they had a great screen call at like a key time in the second half against the Ravens where you're just like that. That's a great call that created an explosive play. They've gotten the run game going, I think over the last, what, three weeks or so. Caleb Williams, it's one of those awesome where it's like, You turn it on for a possession and you're like, I see it. This guy, he can be one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. You turn it on on a different possession and you're like, he doesn't have it.

6:49Austin Gayle:How does anybody defend this guy? He's terrible. I would like to congrats Caleb Williams. Congratulate Caleb Williams, Austin, because every year we have a quarterback who we can't really have a normal conversation about. It's like either they're overrated, they stink, bench him now, this guy's terrible. Or, you know, sometimes it's the hipsters versus the normals. You've heard me talk about this before. So the normies are saying that and the hipsters are going, nah, man, you gotta watch the film the next day. Like this guy isn't the problem. He's fantastic. I have a very boring Caleb Williams take.

7:21Austin Gayle:It's not controversial. I see the upside. I see the inconsistencies. Overall, I would say I've been underwhelmed over the last two seasons, but there's a chance he figures it out and goes on a heater. Again, that's very boring. Like we're not gonna clip that for social. That's not fun. That's not gonna do numbers, but that's how I feel about Caleb Williams. Where, where are you? What am I right about? What am I wrong about? I mean, I think it's a lot of what you're saying is right. And I think the right take is somewhere in the middle of like, he's can be, and we'll be this top five quarterback in the league.

7:49And like, Oh my gosh, he's unplayable and all that stuff. I do think that what makes some of this worse is that he is, he is inaccurate with the ball often. Right. And I think some of that is like rushing his feet, rushing his process. And I think the other piece of it too, that I think stands out, especially to Normies. It's just like when he misses, he's missing with fastballs. And like, they look worse. They look uncatchable. Like the DJ Moore one in the back of the end zone that everyone's talked about after this week, even though the game was kind of already out of hand, like an inaccurate pass that isn't thrown like 150 miles an hour, I think has a different reaction than when like Caleb Williams is missing these passes and they're flying by guys.

8:21And they almost look, again, like even uncatchable if they hit a receiver in the hands. I do think that he needs to figure out how to like calm down in the pocket. I think that when he's in these high pressure moments, I don't even think necessarily when he's pressured, because I think when he's pressured, he has a ton of like crazy confidence. And you see that there was that one DJ Moore throw, a different DJ Moore throw in that game where he's like crazy off his back foot, flings it up, DJ Moore catch the one hand. Like, I do think that he has a good amount of, I think it's when these moments, there are a lot of pressure in the moment, right?

8:49Where I feel like he needs to rise to the occasion, be the best guy. And I think that's where he's only playing the league for a year and a half now. I think another number one overall quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, who I think has had a very long leash in terms of criticism versus Norby's and hipsters and all that stuff.

9:03Austin Gayle:And it's Caleb Williams and Trevor Lawrence. I feel like it's the same conversation we're going to be having about both those guys. Yeah, I think the key difference is Caleb is obviously still in the first, the second year of his career. And I think he has a little bit more talent specifically with his arm, how alive his arm is and the kinds of throws that he can make than Trevor Lawrence does. And I think that's what also has a lot of people holding out hope and expecting more of Caleb Williams. I think going into the season, a lot of people want to see him take this step with Ben Johnson. and he has weapons, Roma Duns, a DJ Moore, it should be there.

9:30It has to be said too, the offensive line hasn't been great. You know, they've had to start Theo Benaday at left tackle. They started with Braxton Jones. Interior has injuries. I do think that Chicago needs to, you know, tool up the offensive line. Obviously they're avoiding injuries there. Like it's not all on Caleb Williams, even though as much as we want it to be, and I think a lot of fans want it to be like, it's Caleb Williams, he's the problem. I think Caleb Williams and this offense, even though I do think that they're frauds in terms of being deep postseason contenders, mostly for the defense, and that this offense isn't going to all of a sudden be like game breaking.

9:57at the end of the season, at the second half of the season. They have some easy games coming up. I think over the second half of the season, you continue to see this like roller coaster with the team. But over time, I do think it's trending up. And I'm honestly already kind of really looking forward to year two of Caleb Williams and Ben Johnson together.

10:14Austin Gayle:Okay. Yeah, I would agree that his highs are higher than like Trevor Lawrence's highs were at this point in his career. And even now, I mean, you watch a full game. If you watch every throw throughout the course of a game, it's easy to pick out five throws where you're like, man, not a lot of guys can do that. And that's reason to be excited. If you're a Bears fan, it doesn't mean it's all going to come together at some point. Maybe it will. I don't know for sure that it will, but for it to come together this season, like for them to be a playoff team, I don't think it's coming with the defense being more consistent.

10:43Austin Gayle:I think there has to be a point where you're saying, Ooh, this is actually happening this year. You don't have to wait for next year with Ben Johnson. Caleb Williams is figuring it out. Uh, they look a little more consistent here. That's kind of their path to being a playoff team, but eighth hardest remaining schedule, Austin Packers twice, Lions Eagles, 49ers right now they're plus two 60 to make the playoffs. So I just think that defense is going to have issues the rest of the way. We'll see if the offense can make up for it. All right. Next team here, the Pittsburgh Steelers. You are on fraud watch.

11:18Austin Gayle:I'm not just being a hater here, Austin, because they're actually on fraud watch for different reasons than I thought they were going to be on Fraud Watch for. So let me explain. They're four and three. They have a two-game lead over the Ravens to win the AFC North, yet they're plus 170 to win the division. The Ravens are still the favorites. And I expected the Steelers to be frauds this year because I thought the Aaron Rodgers situation was going to be a disaster. Just a quarterback that age, new team. I didn't think the supporting cast was great. that experiment has actually, I would say it's gone as well as anyone could have expected.

11:53Austin Gayle:You know, you can look at the numbers or just watching whatever, like they've had a mediocre to above average offense, I would say. And Aaron Rodgers is making some plays outside of structure. They're scheming some stuff up with DK Metcalf. The run game has looked good. The problem is that I don't think people understand the degree to which this defense sucks. Like, and I don't, you know, like Mike Tomlin has been there for 19 seasons, Austin. where do you think this defense ranks among the 19 defenses he's coached in terms of epa per draft i'm gonna say dead last dead last dang see i should have set it up better the way i set it up of course he's gonna say dead last yes they're dead i mean i have these stats i have these stats too yards per drive this millennium 32nd it's the it's 32nd this year they've allowed four more yards per drive than any steelers defense this millennium that even goes before the mike tomlin era success rate 29 like this defense is the highest paid defense in the league one of the oldest defenses in the league and that's part of it right you're paying a lot of old players veteran players whatever it's the highest paid defense in the league one of the oldest defense league and i think if the cowboys didn't exist would be the worst defense in the league it's that bad which is wild to say and i think it's okay to point the finger a little bit at the either coaching staff or personnel side because to your point they go out they get darius lay you know They signed Patrick Queen a couple of years ago.

13:16Austin Gayle:They, they've made, they trade for Jalen Ramsey. They get rid of Minka Fitzpatrick. So they've made kind of all these moves to add these veterans. I looked at their pass rush at the beginning of the season. I looked at their front the beginning of the season and I'm like, that's going to be a top 10 defense. It's talented enough. And they haven't really been decimated by injuries. This isn't one of those seasons where it's like, oh, TJ Watts out for eight weeks and your whole defense comes crumbling down. No, they, they haven't had the most devastating injuries. And yet, to your point, every metric you look at, they're bottom three, bottom five.

13:46Austin Gayle:And let me read you this quote, Austin, from ESPN. This is from Juan Thornhill after the game said this on Monday. If I'm being completely honest, I don't feel like the effort was there. We got to have that conversation. We got to let everybody know that effort should not be something that we should be paying attention to. You always need to play hard. last year the same stuff was happening as this defense fell apart down the stretch and people are pointing fingers and then ultimately they trade Minka Fitzpatrick like why is this happening again eight weeks into the season so I would be very very concerned if I were a Steelers fan.

14:24Austin Gayle:Can I go quote for quote with you? Cam Hayward Cam Hayward after this game he's been with them since 2011 veteran when you think of the Steelers defense as TJY you think of Cam Hayward. He said This shocked me. This absolutely shocked me. He said, there's not a lot of fight in us right now. I literally just like, for a Steelers defense, for Mike Tomlin, for Cameron Hayward, to say there's not a lot of fight in us right now, they're four and three. They've had like a moderate, there's a reason they're on fraud watch because they've had a winning record though. Rodgers looks better than you expected.

14:59Like there's things here, highest paid defense. Like you said, Darius Slay, Jalen Ramsey, there's talent, TJ Watt. there's not a lot of fight in us right now, that screams the worst we've seen from the Tomlin era in terms of the defense and stuff. I think that that kind of sums up. And you bring up, Darius Slay is 34 years old. I think of any position in the league, once you turn 30, how quickly it can fall off for you. Of the positions we've seen retire at halftime or retire in the middle of the season, it's always usually a corner. It's Vontae Davis, it's Xavier Howard this season, I think retire after a game.

15:31Corners, no. like there's I think there's like the corner secondary to like some corners make this transition after 30 to safety or you saw that with Charles Woodson other corners have done that in the past Richard Sherman I think tried that late in his career but if you don't and you're 31 32 33 sticking at corner I age like milk man and it turns like that and I think you've seen that with Darius Slay Jalen Ramsey has played pretty well this year and he's only 31 he just turned 31 I think this month but Darius Slay I think you've seen it um Joey Bore Jr. has been hurt and banged up a little bit, but I don't think he's played well when healthy either.

16:04They just saw Deshaun Elliott, the safety. I don't know how long he's going to be out. I think it's a bone bruise. They've had some injuries, but I think the quotes, like you're saying, I didn't see the Juan Thornhill quote, but like, oh my God, Cam Hayward, the leader of this team, a guy who's been through like the last 10 plus years of these defenses to say there's not fighting us right now. That screams to me like this Steelers team already knows, even at four and three, that's going to be hard for them to overcome. I did have some stats for Rodgers and then the offense, because I agree it has looked better, but like this is a complete phony, ridiculous offense.

16:29It doesn't even make sense.

16:29Austin Gayle:It's sustainable. Okay. Not at all. One, Aaron Rodgers, he turns 42 in December. He's 41 years old right now. You can kind of feel that he's struggling, specifically when he has to move out of the pocket and when he is pressured. He's overall this year, 23rd in dropback success rate. Geno Smith has a better dropback success rate than Aaron Rodgers. Spencer Rattler, who just got benched, has a better success rate. Bryce Young, Justin Fields, Carson Wentz. Down to down, the offense has not been super successful. 62%. of Aaron Rodgers yards have come after the catch. That's the highest in weeks one through eight for any quarterback this millennium.

17:05It's a fake offense. He's the lowest average depth of target. On average, he's throwing 3.2 yards short of the line of game, so short of the sticks. That's the lowest in the league by a margin. The offense is catered around him getting the ball out fast and guys making plays after the catch, which works to a degree for a while, but it's not ultimately one when you go down in these games and your defense is giving up a ton of points that's going to allow you to kind of be playoff competitive. I think that they know on both sides of the ball, even, even if that Rogers has been better than maybe people expected and the defense is highly paying, there are some stars.

17:35I think they know on both sides of the ball that this team, again, like does not have fight in them. And for the reason is, it's like, they just, I don't think they're going to be competitive against this was like the first time in a while, because they've had a little bit of a cupcake schedule, some of these games, but like you saw them against this Packers team that a lot of people think is going to be a super bowl contender in the NFC. And it just didn't really feel competitive, even though the score was a little bit closer. Like you can just tell like the Packers are a better team on both sides of the ball.

17:57They felt better coach. They struggled with penalties this year. I really do think that this Steelers team feels different and worse than their record suggests.

18:04Austin Gayle:Yeah, the difference in some of those numbers, obviously it's predicated on not turning the football over. Can you still create explosives with those yards after the catch, which they've done a good job of? You know, you can give Arthur Smith credit and say, okay, finding ways to use DK Metcalf in that way. Rodgers has made some plays outside of structure. He had one last week. He had one the previous week where he's kind of rolling to his right and can still chuck the football 40, 50 yards downfield. You're right. But I am with you. I mean, right now, they're 12th in EPA per drive. Where do you think they finish this season?

18:37Austin Gayle:Just when we look at how every offense ranks. How much of a fall are you predicting? Probably somewhere between 16 and 19, maybe in that slightly below average range. Because I still think they're going to be able to have success with this kind of like, I wouldn't call it gimmicky, but getting the ball quick, make some plays out of the catch. They have some talent. Like I really liked DK Metcalf. I think their tight end group is really good as well. Where I feel like I struggle is that this upcoming schedule for them, right? They have the Colts at chargers bills, Ravens twice. They didn't get a chance at the Ravens when they were at their least healthy, right?

19:09Lamar Jackson says he's a hundred percent healthy. Now some of the guys on defense are coming back. They also have the lions. Their easiest games left on the schedule, hosting the bangles who they just lost to at the bears who we know run hot cold. And it's going to be in Chicago hosting the dolphins who again, And another team that runs hot coal, they just beat up on, it was the Falcons this week, who a lot of people think have the best defense in the league. And then they got to go to Cleveland, which, yeah, Cleveland's not great. Offense is good. Steelers beat them this year. But again, that's a really good defense that could maybe shut down what is the best side of the ball for the Steelers right now.

19:37It's not an easy schedule to finish. You've got quotes from everybody saying they don't have fight in them. Offense feels a little bit hard to sustain. And the defense is objectively one of the worst in the league and the worst that Tomlin has ever had to deal with, which I think is a change for him.