How Many Teams Could Actually Win the Super Bowl?

0:00Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia. Flying solo because the exercise today is simple. I am trying to identify how many teams can actually win the Super Bowl and what a Super Bowl run might look like for each contender. At the end, I'm giving you my official Super Bowl pick. It's time to go on the record. So I've broken down all 32 teams into five different tiers. Tier five, it's not happening. Come on. These are the teams that have no shot. we don't really need to spend any time on them. Tier four, playoffs, maybe. Super Bowl, no. Self-explanatory. These are the teams that need things to go right to make the playoffs, but they're not actual threats to win the Super Bowl.

0:44Tier three, the drunk fan bases. These are teams whose fans might be able to talk themselves into a Super Bowl run, maybe if they've had a cocktail or two, but I personally do not see them as Super Bowl contenders. Tier two, squint and you can see it. These are not the obvious candidates, but they've got a shot. If you're looking for a surprise contender, a sleeper, it's probably going to come out of this tier. And then tier one, the contenders, the eight teams that in my opinion, have a real shot of winning the Super Bowl. All right, let's take a break. We come back. We go through the process of finding our Super Bowl champ.

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3:14All right, we're back. We start with tier five. It's not happening. Now, I've only got three teams in this tier, the New Orleans Saints, the Cleveland Browns, and the New York Giants. I just can't even under wild circumstances see any of these teams winning the Super Bowl. So sorry to those fan bases. Maybe you'll still have a fun season. Maybe you'll be checking out the draft early. I don't know, but we're not going to spend much time on you today. All right, tier four. Playoffs, maybe. Super Bowl, no. Jets, Titans, Panthers, Raiders, Dolphins, and Colts. So I've got six teams in that tier. Again, these teams could be a little frisky, might have some fun stories, might sneak into the playoffs if things go really well, but they are not winning the Super Bowl.

4:00So right off the bat, those two tiers, we've already eliminated nine teams. Now we get to tier three, the drunk fan base. Again, if you're a fan of these teams, maybe you have a couple of drinks. You start going to the group chat and saying, hey, maybe this can go right. Maybe this can go right. You start talking yourself into a Super Bowl berth. You can talk yourself into it, but I personally don't see it happening. So let's knock off these teams one by one. We start with the Pittsburgh Steelers. You want to talk yourself into Aaron Rodgers and this pass catching group and this being the first Steelers team to win a playoff game since 2016, this defense slowing down guys like Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, you want to talk yourself into it?

4:46Go ahead, but sorry, I don't see it. New England Patriots. You do always have to be aware of the possibility for that second-year quarterback to make a huge leap. You're going to hear me mention that a bunch of times when I go through some of these other teams because that is a thing in the NFL. I could see that happening with Drake May. I like Drake May, but this team just is not talented enough. You know, frisky playoff team. Yeah, sure. I could get there maybe, but Super Bowl would be an absolute stunner. So New England Patriots, you're out of here. Jacksonville Jaguars. Now they're an interesting one.

5:22You can probably get to a place where you say Trevor Lawrence has a nice season. New play caller and Liam Cohen. Look what he did with Baker Mayfield. Last year, you got Brian Thomas Jr. You have Travis Hunter. Maybe he's offensive rookie of the year. Maybe he's defensive rookie of the year. So I think you can talk yourself into the Jaguars winning the division, but are they ready for the big boys in the AFC? I don't think so. I mean, this defense could be one of the worst defenses in the NFL. The offensive line has questions. There just aren't enough pieces in Jacksonville for me to get them to another tier.

5:56Atlanta Falcons. Michael Penix Jr. is such an unknown that there's definitely some variance here. And I could see the offense overachieving. I could see them being a fun team. But you look at that defensive depth chart and man, it is ugly. So this defense being good enough to get them to a Super Bowl, that would require some kind of miracle in my opinion. All right. This might surprise some people. I think they're getting some sleeper buzz, but I have the Seattle Seahawks in this tier. I think the defense is going to be good enough. I just don't buy that their new offensive coordinator, Clint Kubiak, is going to be able to scheme around this offensive line.

6:34I don't buy that Sam Darnold's going to be the same guy we saw last year in Minnesota. Is there a chance I have egg on my face at the end of the season or even throughout the season? People tweeting at me, you doubted this Seahawks offense. You should have believed what you saw in the preseason. It's possible, but that's how I feel at this point in time. So I've got the Seahawks in this tier. Next team up, Arizona Cardinals. Kyler Murray has been in the NFL for six seasons and he's been in the playoffs one time. He's never won a playoff game. I don't buy that their defense is going to make some type of big leap.

7:10I don't buy that Jonathan Gannon is like the next Vince Lombardi when he's gone 12 and 22 the past two seasons. I would just be absolutely stunned if this was the year that it happened for Kyler Murray, if they were actually that sleeper Super Bowl contender, or even if they went on a deep playoff run. I don't see it with the Arizona Cardinals. Dallas Cowboys, I think they can be a good regular season team. But come on, we're watching that Netflix special. That was 30 years ago. It hasn't happened in 30 years. This is going to be the year with Brian Schottenheimer's first year as their head coach with some of the questions on defense and the questions at offensive tackle.

7:50The Cowboys are going to make that leap and get to the Super Bowl and win the Super Bowl. Come on, that would be very, very surprising. The Chicago Bears. I'll be honest, you know, doing this exercise, I thought, should I bump them up a tier? I don't want to get Bears fans hopes up. You know, that has happened over the years and the results have been unkind, but there's at least a formula here for the Chicago Bears. If Ben Johnson is an offensive savant, if Caleb Williams makes that second year leap that I'm talking about a lot of times, year number two for quarterbacks who end up being great, It happens in their second season.

8:28So that's on the table with Caleb Williams, whether it's individual accolades, team success, we'll see, but it's in play. The pass catching group, DJ Moore, Roma Dunze, the rookies, Colston Loveland, Luther Burden, maybe it all just fits together beautifully. And we're like, wow, this really is Detroit Lions 2.0 with Ben Johnson. So that's the offense. And I think the defense has some sleeper potential. I've got them as a top 10 defense. I'm sorry, going into this season. So I think between the upside on offense and the sleepery nature of the defense, maybe there's a chance for the Bears. But ultimately, I kept them in this tier because I think it's going to be more of a gradual build for Caleb Williams than sort of a rapid ascent where all of a sudden, bam, looks totally different than last year.

9:18I think there's going to be more ups than downs than we saw last year, certainly. but I just couldn't get to the point where I could really see them as a Super Bowl team. Also, they've got, I think, one of the five hardest schedules in the NFL. So I've got the Bears in this tier. All right, next we get to the top two tiers. We'll take a break and we'll talk about those remaining teams and I will crown my Super Bowl champion for this season. This episode is sponsored by American Eagle. Hanging out at home or headed out for a training session? American Eagle has you covered. Their jeans, so amazing and come in every fit you need because great jeans are for everyone.

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10:38All of them are threatening the troops' future. Fill your liter of cola and roll up to the multiplex for Super Troopers 3. Meow. Playing only in theaters. Get tickets. Meow. out. All right, tier two, squint and you can see it. I got seven teams in this tier. These are not the obvious candidates, but I think they got a shot. The Tampa Bay Bucs. There is absolutely a case for the Tampa Bay Bucs. If you believe that the offense can pick up where it left off last season with Liam Cohen, they've got a new OC this year, but Mike Evans, Chris Godwin coming back from injury, the rookie, Emeka Agbuka. I mean, that's going to be a tough trio to defend when all those guys are on the field together.

11:21Plus, they've got the eighth easiest schedule. It's a bad division. So that's working in their favor. And then finally, the defensive side of the ball. Todd Bowles seems to always get that defense to a high floor. They weren't great last year, but they're going to reach kind of a level of competency that keeps them in a lot of games. So Tampa Bay Bucs, I have them in this tier. I didn't put them in the top tier because they've got that uncertainty at offensive coordinator. And some of the talent on defense has me a little bit hesitant. But again, squint and you can see it. You can see the Bucs in the Super Bowl.

11:55Next team up here, the Houston Texans. And I have to say, the closer we get to week one, the more I look for a sleeper in the AFC, the more I come back to the Houston Texans. They've been in the divisional round back-to-back years, and it was a highly flawed team last season. So to still get to the divisional round was pretty impressive. And remember, that game against the Chiefs, they're going into the fourth quarter. It's 13-12 at Arrowhead in the divisional round. So they were in that game. Some things go differently. Who knows? Maybe they're in the AFC Championship game last year, and we're saying, hey, it's a pretty small leap for them to actually get to the Super Bowl.

12:36So I look at their defense. It is a top five unit, in my opinion. It can hold up against great quarterbacks. And then when you look at what went wrong last year, it was the offensive line and it was the offensive coaching. Now, did they fix that? That's the big question. We'll see. They changed offensive coordinators. They brought in Nick Caley from the Rams. They changed offensive line coaches and they also made changes on the offensive line. So you have all that. And I still very much believe in CJ Straub. I mean, at this time last year, I had CJ Stroud as a top five quarterback in the NFL. Did he develop some bad habits last year?

13:15Yes. Was it all his fault? I don't think so. I think the O-line issues, the coaching issues were working against him. So I think Stroud really can bounce back if the offensive line can just kind of give him a chance. So O-line scares me. Uncertainty with the play caller. But if those things work out, I really think the Texans are my favorite sleeper from this group. All right, next up, I've got the Denver Broncos. Now, have I been giving the Broncos a hard time? Yes, I have. Because anytime I look up, it feels like Sean Payton is telling someone how much he loves Bo Nix or how much he loves this team or how he believes that they're a true Super Bowl contender.

13:56And I've said this before with Sean Payton. It's one of those two things can be true deals where one, he thinks he's God's gift to coaching. But two, he's absolutely one of the best coaches of the last 25 years. We saw that last year. And so Sean Payton, you know, maybe a little arrogance, but he's got reason for it. And I do actually get the case for Denver. Defensively, Dre Greenlaw, Talanoa Hufanga, if those guys stay healthy, if Jaday Barron is good as a rookie, they have upgrades and potential difference makers on an already good defense. So I like that. Offensively, it's a top five O-line and you have the potential for Bo Nix.

14:37He's another guy. I mean, there's a theme here. Another guy who could potentially make that second year leap, but now it's a different bar to clear. If he clears it, they have a chance, but I need to see it. And then the last thing with the Broncos, you know, defensively, I do think people are getting a little bit carried away. I think it was a good defense, but the playoffs against the Bills, they gave up 471 yards. Week nine against the Ravens, they gave up 41 points. And like, these are the types of offenses, the types of teams, the types of quarterbacks you potentially have to go through in the AFC to get to the Super Bowl.

15:14And so I think there's a little more boom or bust to their defense than maybe people are willing to admit. So anyway, I see the case, but I also have concerns, which is why I have them down a tier from the contenders. Next team in this tier, Minnesota Vikings. Now their case is simple. They won 14 games last year. Their defense should be good. Their O-line could be really good. They have a great wide receiver in Justin Jefferson and they have a great coaching staff. So the question is obvious. We don't need to spend too much time on it. J.J. McCarthy, if he's good, their sleeper Super Bowl team, but that's a big ask for a first time inexperienced starter.

15:52Next team, Los Angeles Chargers. Part of me wonders whether they're getting slept on a bit. I haven't seen a lot of people. Everybody's on the Broncos. I've got the Raiders as a sleeper playoff team. The Chargers, when you look at Jim Harbaugh's track record, he has a 685 winning percentage as an NFL head coach. 55-25-1. Never had a losing record. Has won 11 or more games in four or five seasons. And so I look at that and say, maybe we should be taking them a little more seriously. But then as I dig deeper, unless Justin Herbert delivers an MVP season, it's just hard for me to see that offense making a big leap when you look at the state of their offensive line.

16:35So I have questions on that side of the ball. And then I love the defensive coaching, but I have questions about the talent defensively. So I just can't put them in the top tier when they haven't won a playoff game yet. That feels like a big ask for a team that hasn't done it. Cincinnati Bengals, you're up next. They are an interesting one because I've generally had this view that you can overcome a bad defense with a great offense. But then I was doing a little research for the pod and I looked at the last 10 Super Bowl champions and none of them had a below average defense. That's by DVOA. The worst defense among the last 10 Super Bowl champions was the 2019 Chiefs.

17:17and even they were 12th. And I just have a hard time seeing that Bengals defense getting close to 12th. I mean, it feels like a success might be 23rd or something for them. And is that going to be good enough in the playoffs? Recent history would say probably not going to be good enough to win a Super Bowl with a defense that can't be a little bit better than what their defense projects to be. So I think they can be a frisky team, but the defense has me holding them back from the top tier. All right, last team in this tier, Los Angeles Rams. Two things make me nervous. One, the defense. Same thing I said about the Bengals to a much lesser degree.

17:55I like their front, but I have questions about their corners and it would require a big leap for them to get to an above average defense. And then obviously the Matthew Stafford injury. I mean, it just takes a leap of faith to believe that given what we've seen this summer, he's going to be able to stay healthy enough and play well enough at the age at 37 to get them to a Super Bowl or win a Super Bowl. His A-plus game, still great, but I just don't know how often he's going to be able to get there throughout the course of a season and then on a playoff run. So I've got the Rams in this tier. All right, those are all the teams in tier two.

18:32Now we go to tier one, the actual contenders. All right, we've got eight teams in tier one. I'm going to count down. I'll finish with the two teams I think are going to be in the Super Bowl, but I think these eight teams have a real shot. Washington commanders. Here's what it looks like. Jaden Daniels emerges as a guy. He proves that there was nothing fluky about his rookie season. And I keep mentioning the second season thing with quarterbacks. Patrick Mahomes second season wins MVP. Lamar Jackson second season wins MVP. Joe Burrow second season goes to a Super Bowl. What if Jaden Daniels just shows he belongs in that tier?

19:13I'm not saying it's a given. There's reasons to think they're going to take a step back, but it's also possible that the offensive line has improved, that Debo Samuel has a good year left, that Dan Quinn finds a way to coach up the defense. But again, it's all predicated just on Jaden Daniels being special. So that's the case for the commanders to be in this tier. The Green Bay Packers, I got them in this tier. Here's what it looks like. Jordan Love stays healthy. He builds on the promise we saw a couple of years ago. You know, there's less variance to his game. His accuracy is better. Matthew Golden, the rookie, he makes a big impact right away.

19:49They got a top five offense. Defensively, they build on what we saw last year. We say Xavier McKinney is one of the best safeties in football. He's taking the ball away every other week. All those things that I'm mentioning, it doesn't require like some type of massive leap for the Green Bay Packers. You know, Matt LaFleur has generally produced good competitive teams. It's just a matter of whether they can get over that hump. But this is a well-rounded team that has a young quarterback with upside. The Packers have a shot also, although they're not my pick. My pick will come with the last two teams.

20:2449ers. Here's what it looks like. Offense plays at a high level. The key cogs, we're talking about Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, George Kittle. They stay relatively healthy. I'm not saying everybody's going to play all 17 games, but they stay relatively healthy. They get enough from the wide receivers, Ricky Pearsall, Jawan Jennings, and defensively, Robert Sala looks like a difference-making defensive coach. They pile up wins. NFL's easiest schedule. Maybe they get home field throughout the NFC playoffs. They play at home in the Super Bowl, and Kyle Shanahan finally gets his ring.

21:01Do I think all those things are going to happen? No, but there's a case for the 49ers. All right, next up, Detroit Lions. Here's what it looks like. Despite the two coordinators, Dan Campbell leaving, Dan Campbell shows that the infrastructure of this organization, of this team, of this franchise is strong. I mean, I think back to two years ago, they lose that devastating game in the conference championship. And you wonder, ooh, you know, what's it going to look like next year? They come back and they go 15 and two. Like that shows me something just about the core of that football team. I mean, they've gone 27 and seven the last two years.

21:40So offensively, don't try to fix what's not broken. Just keep it rolling. Perform at a high level. Still a talented group. Defense, you get better injury luck than you had last year. Aiden Hutchinson wins defensive player of the year. They extend that window and maybe they finally cash in just as maybe people are out on them. There's the flip side where they take a step back. The O-line's not as good. The new coordinators can't keep going what has been built there in Detroit. So they're not my pick, but I do think there's a case for the Detroit Lions. All right. That brings us down to the final four.

22:17Four teams left. I am eliminating the Kansas City Chiefs. All right. So here's the scenario that makes me look like a dummy. Offensive line changes work out. Rookie Josh Simmons immediately provides that stabilizing force at left tackle. It turns out that's all that Patrick Mahomes really needed. just an offensive line that can give him some time. He gets back. He's chucking the ball downfield. Xavier Worthy, Rasheed Rice. And for the first time in three seasons, we say, oh, there's that explosive version of the Chiefs offense that's been missing just because Patrick Mahomes has better pass protection.

22:56Defensively, I think you know what you're getting with Spags. It's a pretty consistent unit year to year. And they just roll through the AFC and root to a title again. and we all say, why didn't we pick the Chiefs to go to the Super Bowl? Mahomes leaves no doubt. He says, I still have the belt. And we get back to discussing whether he can catch Tom Brady and those seven rings. So that's the scenario. I can see it. I'm just not completely sold that the changes they made on the offensive line and overall offensively are going to result in something different than we've seen in previous years. So the Chiefs are not my pick to win the Super Bowl.

23:35That leaves us with the Baltimore Ravens. I think it's a pretty simple case for the Ravens. They have the potential to be the most balanced team in the NFL. I mean, if I told you at the end of the season, hey, they have the best offense and the best defense in the NFL, would it really surprise you? Probably not. And you go through the list of teams, how many teams can you actually say that about? I mean, it's maybe a handful, maybe it's three, maybe it's five, something like that. So they are a very well-rounded team. So if there's a season where Lamar Jackson wins MVP, the offense picks up where it left off last season, the defense builds on what they were doing the second half of last season, they have the best secondary in the NFL.

24:19All those things are totally in play. And I think if I did this exercise 10 times, I'd probably change my mind on at least a few of them and pick the Baltimore Ravens to win the Super Bowl. I'm just hesitant because of what we talked about with Solak earlier this week. Why are they so mistake prone in these playoff losses? Why don't they deliver their best games in the playoffs? It's sort of been a running theme and it could be complete randomness. I am totally open to that, but it feels like if some of these were best of three series, best of five series, like they would have already won a title.

24:53But in these one-off playoff games, things seem to always go wrong. So I just, maybe I just need to see it with the Baltimore Ravens. All right. Finally, the main event, it comes down to the Eagles and the Bills at Levi's Stadium in Santa Clara. And my pick for Super Bowl champion this season is the Buffalo Bills. They finally do it. All right. Sorry, Eagles fans listening to this, but let's get the case. Maybe you're happy. You're probably happy I didn't pick your team, but let's get the case for the Eagles out of the way first. Then we'll get to the Bills. There's a chance that this offense is better and more balanced than it was a year ago when the passing game, remember, it had issues late in the season.

25:40So maybe it's more consistent throughout the season. They've got the best offensive line in the NFL. They just have a lot of great players. It's not that fun to make the case for the Eagles because you're like, yeah, A.J. Brown, Devontae Smith, great offensive line. Saquon Barkley, Jalen Hurts in a big spot has shown he's going to come through on multiple occasions. Defensively, great coach, Vic Fangio, all those things are in play. It's just hard to repeat as Super Bowl champion. And I think they got some questions in the secondary where I think the defense takes a little step back. Much harder schedule.