Identifying AFC Contenders: With the Chiefs Down, Who’s Positioned to Pounce?

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1:06Welcome to the Ringer NFL Show. I'm your host, Shiel Kapadia. Today, we are trying to identify who is going to take over for the Chiefs in the AFC. The Chiefs have been the AFC's Super Bowl representative in five of the last six seasons. And while something wild still could happen, it looks like they're not going to make the playoffs. So which team is best positioned to pounce on this opportunity? I mean, a postseason where we potentially have AFC playoffs without Mahomes, without Joe Burrow, without Lamar Jackson, which team can step in there and get to the Super Bowl and give themselves a chance at a Lombardi.

1:45To talk about that, we've got my friend from The Athletic, Mike Sando. We each chose a favorite, a runner-up, and a sleeper. Let's take a break and come back and talk to Mike Sandow. This episode of the Ringer NFL Show is presented by State Farm. Having insurance isn't the same as having State Farm. It's like expecting the leadership of a team captain on the football field, but getting a C captain? Sure, they're both captains, but who is going to run your offense? You wouldn't settle for just anything for your team, so don't settle for just any insurance. When it comes to getting the help you need, State Farm is the real deal.

2:23Like a good neighbor, State Farm is there.

2:38All right, welcome back to the Ringer NFL show. The great Mike Sando is here. We are looking for the Chiefs replacement. So Mike, let's start with the favorite. Just if you had to make one pick right now, Chiefs aren't going to the Super Bowl in the AFC, who is the team you would pick right now?

2:57Mike Sando:It might be New England. Does that surprise you? A little bit, yes. Make the case. So my case for New England is, I think we looked at a lot of these teams and we can kind of see a flaw or maybe their team is kind of peaked, right? And they're not quite what they should be. Whereas I feel like New England is still becoming what it's going to be. and is already has the best record. I know the schedule is part of that. I get it. But they've won different ways. I think their quarterback looks really good. I think the head coach is super solid. The offensive coordinator is in the perfect role for him.

3:30Mike Sando:You know, they're pretty good defense, at least against the run. You know, do I think they're great when you dissect them on paper? No. But I kind of feel like they could be better in a month than they are now, and they already have the best record. So that's a little bit of my case for them. It's sort of by default because I think I'd let you pick anyone and I'd take the field and you'd do the same, I'm sure. But, you know, that might be a team to sort of watch for me. Yeah, I had them as my runner up. So it wasn't, you know, it wasn't like, oh, my gosh, I can't believe you're picking the Patriots.

4:01So they're my runner up. Yeah, they're 11 and 2. It's interesting some of the, you know, statistics or whatever that take into account the schedule. Like I like to look at this site in predictable that does like the betting markets and it does like, you know, strength of schedule. and they do the power ranking. So it just tells you like who would be favored on a neutral field right now. And they're 12th in that. I was like, man, 12th. That's like, there's definitely not 11 teams I like better than the Patriots. So I look at those things, but I'm with you. I kind of believe in them. You know, I look at them.

4:32I feel like they've passed every test. They've beaten the Bills. They've beaten the Bucs. They haven't tripped up on these bad teams, which I feel like you have to get credit for. You know, it's like the Rams losing that game to the Panthers a couple of weeks ago. Those types of games happen throughout the course of an NFL season, and I feel like they keep passing those tests. So I like the quarterback. I like the coaching. I feel like, yeah, they are definitely one or two for me. I've got them too, but I hear what you're saying there.

4:59Mike Sando:And they throttle the Giants. It's every week's different, but Denver's scoring like 100 points in the fourth quarter to barely beat the Giants. And I just, yeah, I like them. I can make a case for someone else, but I kind of lean that way. and I'm anxious to see what they're going to be. The defense does make me a little nervous. But you know what I was looking at, Mike? I was going, oh, the defense is vulnerable. And then I was going, well, who are the great offenses that you have to face in the AFC playoffs? I don't know. It's like, all right, the Bills, yes. Other than that, it's such a weird year, which is why we're doing the exercise.

5:35There's no Mahomes. Right now, there's no Lamar. There's no Burrow. You might be able to get by without having a great defense.

5:42Mike Sando:I think right now they are eighth in both offensive and defensive EPA per play, eighth in each. So it's not like they have a bottom, I know schedule is part of it, but it's not like they have a bottom five defense and they're just holding on. That's fine. Yeah. It's like great offense, mediocre defense oftentimes can get you to the Super Bowl. So that might be their formula. How high are you? What's like, you talk to people every week around the NFL, right? The great column for the athletic. what's sort of the buzz around uh drake may because last week i presented the question ben solak was on and i said how many quarterbacks would the patriots just trade up like trade straight up for drake may right now and we're like i think mahomes i think josh allen and even those it's not like a hundred percent but what's the stuff you hear on yeah right well people have a lot of people have changed their tune and think that he has shown some things uh in the nfl that they weren't sure he was showing in college.

6:40Mike Sando:So I think he's earned a lot of fans. A lot of people liked him, but I didn't think anybody super loved him. And there were some people who just weren't sure, good people that I talked to a lot. So I think he's won, really in probably the middle of this season on, he's kind of become the upper tier guy. So I think he's going to make a huge jump in the quarterback tiers. I don't know if he's going to get any tier one votes, but he might. I mean, I think there's going to be some people that really bet on him. So I think, you know, he has won people over and really proven it this year. You had a thing in your column today about comparing this Patriots team to the 2001 team, which I thought was interesting.

7:24What's sort of the comp there, the case there?

7:28Mike Sando:Well, I mean, Mike Vrabel was a rookie 12-game starter on that team. Josh McDaniels was a young defensive assistant on his way. You know, he's really, I think, was the coordinator maybe after Charlie Weiss, but he was an early coach on that team. So they know the DNA. And then I think, you know, Vrabel's a little bit of maybe a modern version of Belichick, who's, you know, a ball coach through and through, you know, knows the game, fundamentals. He's into the situational aspects of the game. But he also relates to players and has a personality, which is a real advantage, I think, especially now.

8:01Mike Sando:I think it's less of a, yes, sir, you know, how do I jump league? And I think the personality that some of these guys show is important. And I think he's got it. And he's just got, he has the it factor, right? If there's an it factor for coaches or quarterbacks, this guy totally has it. So I think then you throw in the young quarterback who, you know, obviously Brady was behind Drew Bledsoe, so he didn't start right away. But Drake May right now is, I wrote this, is probably more impressive than Brady was before he got to the playoffs in the Super Bowl that year, right? If we just put the blinders on and didn't know what happened to Tom Brady, I mean, this May looks pretty darn good.

8:46Mike Sando:And it's New England. So those are just a few of the things that I thought made me think of that. It feels like something special is kind of happening there. Yeah, that's not recency bias. I mean, May could win the MVP this year. I think it would be my pick right now if I had to pick one. So, I mean, all these teams, it's so interesting because it's like, all right, if you're a Patriots fan, you're going, we got Drake May. We got Vrabel. You know, hopefully, let's see if we can win it this year. But if we don't, you know, we're going to have other opportunities. But we know, like, yeah, you can feel good about that, but it doesn't always work out that way.

9:18You know, you've got to have certain luck and different aspects. And so that's why the AFC being wide open is so interesting this year, which brings me to my pick. Mike for my favorite and I'm just a normie you know I'm just going with the Bills I'm just going to say they've got the best player they've got the best quarterback in Josh Allen they're not the most complete team it's interesting this isn't like the best version of the Bills we've seen by any stretch but this still might be their best opportunity even if they they're not the one seed or even if they don't win their division just because of the path they might have to go through to get there.

9:53Mike Sando:Yeah, they're my next team. They would be my second team on this list. And I, for those reasons you talked about, I think on any given day, you know, Josh Allen is, you know, can go win the game. As I wrote though today, you know, they're so reliant on him that they no longer have really the defense that can, they can just go win a game for them. And we see that in, you know, their record the last two years when the offense was below average by EPA is one in seven, including 0-4 this year. Big change from basically being 500 right around there before that. They're also not winning on the road.

10:28Mike Sando:Their 500 team on the road used to be, I think, 23-9 over a four-year stretch on the road. So, they definitely aren't the same, and you acknowledge that. And so, that is what just held me back from putting them. I feel like they're holding on and maybe not getting better. And they've already lost to New England and may lose to them again. They play this week. So, you know, maybe that game changes my mind. If Buffalo comes out and really handles them. But I kind of think Newman might win that coming off the bye. I love the point there, backed up by your numbers, because that's what it feels like.

11:00It feels like they have basically one way to win. It's, you know, now they can win with the run game for sure, but against good teams, you know, if you're just talking about, hey, they've got to win for a month here, it is going to have to be Josh Allen being Superman. I mean, you know, maybe you get the defense creating some turnovers one game. But the other thing, Mike, about their defense is like, In the past, they've had good defenses in the regular season, and then they get lit up. These games in the playoffs where they lose, a few of them, most of them have been Josh Allen plays well, the offense plays well, and the defense can't give them anything, can't get a stop.

11:35It's like a whatever, a 10th percentile game. So that doesn't make you feel great that this year they're not even good in the regular season. How would they turn it on, that defense in the playoffs?

11:46Mike Sando:If I had more time last night, I was going to look up, when's the last time a quarterback had Joe Burrow's overall numbers were amazing with those disaster plays? Like, you put in the disaster plays, those had to be, like, huge swing plays that would normally wreck your stat line if you're a quarterback, and, like, his stats were still good. And so I'm with you. That's just what worries me about him. You know, any one week, but over a course of weeks, I think it would be harder. It's how they're bad also. You know, they're 28th in explosive play rate allowed. They're 27th in success rate against the run.

12:21Like that type of profile makes me very nervous. And I know they've had some injuries, but it's not like, oh, they're going to get X, Y, and Z back and their defense is going to be playing well. I mean, their defense has been playing like this for most of the season. But even with that, like, I am very excited. I was thinking about this as I prepped for this exercise. I'm like, one of the most exciting ways that this season could play out is that Josh Allen over the next eight weeks just reaches this level where we're like, man, we've seen it before, but he's the best player in the NFL. He's the best quarterback in the NFL.

12:56He's putting the cape on. He's putting the whole team on his back. And he stands there and hoists the Lombardi trophy where we're all going, man, that wasn't even his best team. He's had better teams, but he, because he's going to be asked to elevate to that level. And we all know it's possible that he does it. So that's like one of the fun ways this season could play out.

13:14Mike Sando:It'd be so funny, too, because I think through his actions, Sean McDermott has tried to have a different type of a team. He's tried to be running the ball more. He doesn't want to live and die slinging it around, but that might be his only way to do it, partly because his defense, which he is leading, is not what it was. So that would be amazing if he were to do that. And Josh Allen could. He's probably the one guy in the AFC who can do that right now. I wonder if, you know, does he look at it and go, man, I've had so many chances and I might not have to play Mahomes or Lamar or Burrell. Like, I mean, it already feels like every post season, they're one of those teams like the Ravens where they've just got that, that pressure on them where it's like, is this finally going to be the year or are we going to go into the long off season and then have to try climb that mountain again, where he's got to be looking at that going, man, you know, I know these are good teams and I know we don't have a great team, but like we really have a chance here to win this thing.

14:14So yeah, the bills, the pressure, I can't even imagine the bills fans. If you know, if they bow out this year against one of these other teams, that is going to be hard to swallow.

14:23Mike Sando:I think the pressure goes up if they finish really strong, like if they were to run the table and be, and everyone's picking them. Yeah. Like they're, they're nine and they're nine and four now. So their season's been couched a little bit with, by some of the losses or, you know, so if they were to finish like, you know, 11 and five, and then win one playoff game and lose out, it almost feels like, yeah, that's kind of what they were. But if they raise the bar by a strong finish and then have the letdown, I think it hurts more. Oh, no. Bills fans, we'll put in the notes. Fast forward through that part.

14:54You don't want to picture that. Skip. Skip. Skip. 15 seconds forward there on Sandell, what he is envisioning as your nightmare, potentially, for the Buffalo Bills. All right, let's take a break. I want to come back and talk about the sleepers because there are a lot of other teams in the mix here. Which of them might have the best chance? This episode is brought to you by Amazon Prime. The holidays move quickly like a blitz to save the game. That's where Prime comes in with fast, free delivery. My kids put together these presentations for what they want for Christmas, and they put the Amazon Prime link right in there.

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16:44So just odds-wise, Mike, we picked the two teams that are up there. Bills are plus 370 to get to the Super Bowl. The Patriots are plus 390. I don't know if you've looked at these odds or not, but there is another team that has the exact same odds as the New England Patriots in the AFC?

17:02Mike Sando:Well, it might be Denver, but I'm picking Houston. Okay. It is Denver, but make the case for Houston. Yeah. So to me, Houston's defense is the best in the league and certainly the best without having to do a bunch of risky things, you know, imperiling your back end of your defense by blitzing all the time. They're historically, I think of the last 160 defenses, going back whatever that would be, five years. They're in the top five for third down defense when they don't pressure, when they don't bring five or more rushers. You can just see what they're doing there now. I don't have as much optimism on the offensive side.

17:43Mike Sando:I think we see flashes. It is the first year of the coordinator. I do think their offensive line is a little bit better than it's been, but that's why they're not a higher pick for me. I think if I could trust their offense a little bit more, they may be my pick, But they still have to get through Jacksonville. And I think that's a team that we're probably overlooking a little bit. But the reason I have them over Denver is I just feel like Denver, I just feel like Denver's, number one, Denver's defense, I don't think is quite as good. And then I probably shouldn't hold it against them that they've, I think they won 12 or they trailed in their first 12 games and won 10 of them, something like that, I just feel like it's been not smoke and mirrors, but just a little tenuous to me.

18:35Mike Sando:So maybe I'm pushing back too hard on that. But I feel like they're the type of team that's going to have this great record and then maybe lose their first game. Yeah, I've been wrong about a lot this year. And I certainly, you know, I always say, everyone's settled down about this Broncos team before this season, during this season. I was like, they're not going to dethrone the Chiefs. The offense is going to look the same as it did last year. And here they are 11 and two to your point, the stuff, you know, you and I might like to look at suggest that they don't necessarily fit the profile of a Superbowl team.

19:08I mean, they have a plus 73 point differential and are 11 and two. The chiefs have a plus 63 point differential and are six and seven. The Broncos are eight and two in one score games. They have the most one score wins of any team in the NFL. And we don't need to, you know, even if you don't count last week, that sort of fluky one against the Raiders, which wasn't necessarily a one score win. So you look at all those things, but they have won 10 in a row. They've beaten the Eagles. They've beaten the Cowboys. They've beaten the Texans. They've beaten the Chiefs. And what I like here, Mike, is that I feel like we'll find out in the next month how real this is because they've got the third hardest remaining schedule here with the Packers, the Jaguars at the Chiefs and the Chargers.

19:52So I was thinking this. What do you think of this comp? And I brought this up before. Is there something to, they are some version of last year's Eagles. And I know it's not perfect, but let's say very good defense. You know, I think even if you don't love them, I think you would say top five defense. The offense is maybe hit or miss, but the quarterback's not going to make mistakes. He's not going to turn the football over, put you in negative situations. I think most weeks they're going to have an edge up front on both sides of the ball. So they don't have Saquon Barkley. They don't have the other talent that that Eagles team had on offense, but I'm looking at it going in a weird year.

20:28I'm not going to push back too hard on some of these things because I'm nervous. I'm a little gun shy here, Mike.

20:33Mike Sando:I like that. I like that comp. It's a good comp. It's better than, you know, I don't think anyone else fits that comp as well as them. And, you know, Bo Nix is less established. I think Jalen Hurts has had some bigger moments, obviously, on bigger stages. And so you probably felt a little better last year about what Philly is. They're just more established, right? And they're a higher-profile team. We've seen them more. So I think I am underrating Denver some. I think I am. I think I can admit that. But I'm doing it. So I'm going to have to live and die with that. And maybe their strength of victory in some of these other things isn't as good.