Kyler Murray Landing Spots and Free Agency Preview!

17:25Austin Gayle:I wouldn't want to sign up for that. My question to you, Austin, is if Chris Ballard is a GM who's keeping his ear to all the things happening in the NFL, was there someone in the Colts building who at least brought up the idea of maybe we call this bluff, we keep lines of communication open with Daniel Jones, we franchise tag Alec Pierce, and who has Kyler Murray's agent's number? because would you rather have Kyler Murray for the minimum or would you rather have Daniel Jones for 38 million coming off an Achilles in 2026? I'm not saying you could guarantee you're getting Kyler Murray, but if it were me and maybe people would say, shut up, Sheila, you've been yelling about this for two months that we don't want to be in the Daniel Jones business and we don't want to get carried away by a 10 game sample last year.

18:13Austin Gayle:I would say, let's listen, if we can't come to that agreement on like a Sam Darnold-ish type deal where it's$33 million per year for three years. If he thinks he's worth more than that, all right, I wish it didn't come to this, but we're going to explore other options. We're going to hang on to Alec Pierce and we're going to find a different quarterback. I know it sounds crazy. I don't think it's crazy, Austin, to explore those possibilities.

18:37Sheil Kapadia:I think there's possibly some intrusive thoughts in small parts of the building where they're like, well, what if we moved on from Jones, figured out this Kyler situation, try to, you know, kind of gamify how we solve this. I think the human element and just seeing how, I think there's a handful of quotes that like stand out in my head. Like when he initially got hurt and tore his Achilles, like how the locker room responded to like him going down. And also I think how Steichen talked about him in the early parts of the season and towards the back end. I do feel like there is a human element to like they believe Daniel Jones is their guy.

19:08Sheil Kapadia:That's why they traded two first round picks for Sauce Gardner. You trade two first round picks for a defensive player, an outside corner. That is, and everyone wrote this at the time, a huge sign of confidence in that Daniel Jones, not anyone else, not Kyler Murray on the right deal or whatever, Daniel Jones is the quarterback that can take us deep and who we can go all in on. If you start to, if people in the locker room or in the front office start to flip the script because of how Kyler might be available and all this stuff, to me that just feels like too much short-term decision-making kind of stacking up.

19:38Sheil Kapadia:Like if you made this bet on Daniel Jones when he was healthy or like kind of arguably healthy, I know he had the other leg stuff in the early parts of the season, you need, and with Chris Ballard, the GM, kind of on the hot seat. Like you need to kind of keep, not put your money where your mouth is, keep your money where your mouth is or else this all starts to kind of like look very herky-jerky to me. That's why I always felt that it would be easier for the Colts, I thought, to get some kind of agreement done with Daniel Jones given that he had a lot of success in the early parts of the season last year.

20:04Sheil Kapadia:He's coming off on kill. He's like, this is the situation that feels right for him to rehab but then also like continue where he picked off, like lifted off. And obviously they have Alec Pierce, the wide receiver, and then Braden Smith, the right tackle, two pending friends on the offensive side. but there's expectations that they should be able to bring Pierce back and maybe Brayden Smith isn't the player he was three or four years ago and they can find a replacement there like this is a good situation for Daniel Jones to me I don't think the Colts or at least big parts of the Colts front officer at locker room were entertaining this idea of like moving on from Jones I think they wanted Jones back now maybe maybe with giving him the tag and not Pierce that to me tells me they also have to have confidence that they're going to bring him back because I think tagging Jones at the expense of Alec Pierce is a different calculus than we're going to tag Jones, kind of bet that he's not going to get this offer.

20:47Sheil Kapadia:We're going to have to match. And then with Alec Pierce, we're going to be able to get something maybe more long-term done with more flexibility. Yeah.

20:53Austin Gayle:Listen, if they bring back Alec Pierce on a long-term deal and it's a one-year deal with Daniel Jones, that's not a bad outcome for the Colts. In other words, if I'm a Colts fan, I would actually rather have that than having signed him to a four-year deal with who knows what kind of guaranteed money there. I have been pretty consistent that I would like to see Daniel Jones do it for a longer time before I'm like, this is the guy who's going to compete with Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen and Lamarja and all the other people in the AFC. So if that happens, it's fine. And they have more information than we do.

21:26Austin Gayle:And maybe they'll have already signed Alec Pierce by the time people listen to this. But to your point, if I'm Alec Pierce's agent and we don't have a deal yet. I'm like, we're six days away from free agency. Like, cool, we'll talk to you guys on March 9th. We're going to see what else is out there because I'm with you. I had a projected salary for Alec Pierce at$27 million when I do this little nerdy spreadsheet that's in front of me where I'm going through all the free agents like you do. So if they're not willing to kind of get to a number, whatever Alec Pierce thinks his high-end number is, that's what the Colts have to hit right now to prevent him from just taking six days and finding out exactly what he would be worth on the open market.

22:04Austin Gayle:So we'll see what happens there with the Indianapolis Colts. All right, the other one that got handed out, the franchise tag, Breeze Hall with the Jets, stays there$14.3 million on a one-year deal. I'm fine with this one, Austin. Like if it were another team, I would be like, I don't think you need to pay a running back$14 million and you have other needs. The truth is the Jets don't have a lot of good football players and it's one year and you're not committing long-term money to a running back. The only thing I thought is they could have done the transition tag for about$11 million. You save yourself$3 million, but then you run the risk of another team coming in and saying, oh, we'll pay Brees Hall more money on a long-term extension.

22:43Austin Gayle:And then you have to decide whether you match it. So that one doesn't move the needle for me, really. Either way, I understand where they're coming from. And I don't think it's a big deal given the state of their roster.

22:53Sheil Kapadia:I think it's kind of, and I was thinking for a while, kind of selfishly, I want to see Brees Hall play in a good offense. Like we don't even know who the quarterback of the Jets is going to be. There's rumors that the Jets are going to release Justin Fields after that one-year disaster of an experiment. Selfishly, I want to see Brees Hall play somewhere else in an offense that's going to be playoff competitive and just ultimately better than the Jets. But when you look at it from the Jets' perspective, it's just stupid to let talented football players leave your building right now. They need good football players.

23:18Sheil Kapadia:I think it would have been hard to get Brees Hall to agree to a multi-year deal to stay in New York. Whereas he kind of tweeted right after the news came out that I'm betting on myself. He's entering his age 25 season. he thinks he can have you know another really standout year the franchise tag how it works in the NFL is like if you franchise tag him again like the money like like goes increases by 50 % or whatever it is like there's a certain like escalator with the franchise tag the more you start to double up on it so it's going to be harder for the Jets to realistically like rationalize like franchise tagging him again so he I think is looking at this season saying hey another year with the Jets I'm going to get paid top of the market money top five kind of money and if I prove what I did last year if not kind of expound on that and the offensive line I think in New York is going to get better I think Armand Menbu is very good.

23:59Sheil Kapadia:They have a lot of young talent along the offensive line. Brees Hall kind of betting him on himself one year and the Jets saying, we're just not going to let talent leave the building. It ultimately does make sense. Though selfishly, I wish he was playing for the Chiefs next year or he was a one-two punch with maybe in Seattle if Kenneth Walker does leave. I noticed he didn't get the tag today. So I don't know. I wanted to see Brees Hall play in a better offense, a playoff competitive team, but the Jets are smart to not let him leave the building.

24:23Austin Gayle:I was trying to get Brees Hall. I think we were both trying to get Brees Hall to the Chiefs during the trade deadline. I think we were having that conversation, but now he's in New York for another year here. All right, let's take a break. We come back. I want to talk about which teams could go wild with their free agent spending and then some other big free agent questions as we are less than a week away from the start of the negotiation. This episode is brought to you by Hotels.com. Save Your Way is a new feature on Hotels.com and it's as simple as it sounds. When you book a trip as a Hotels.com member, you decide how to use your savings, take the instant savings now or bank the savings as rewards for later.

25:00Austin Gayle:It's your call only at hotels.com. Save Your Way is available to loyalty members in the US and UK and hotels with member prices. Other terms apply. See site for details. Shading period. All right. We're back here on the Ringer NFL show. So many questions I want to throw your way, Austin. But the first is like, just what teams do you think a week from now, you know, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday of next week, we're going to be going like, oh, offseason champs, hang the banner. That team just kind of spent wildly as the tweets are coming across your timeline. And wait, they spent how much on that player?

25:32Austin Gayle:Who is the first team that comes to mind for you?

25:35Sheil Kapadia:I think it starts probably with the Titans, right? Just because they have the most cap space of any team in the league. They have a young quarterback on a rookie contract. And I think they need to throw the kitchen sink at figuring out the receiving core, improving the offensive line, and doing everything they can to, one, better evaluate Cam Ward as he goes into his second season, but also take advantage of the fact that you're not paying your quarterback $35,$40,$45 million per year. And then they have, obviously,$93 million in effective cap space, according to Over the Cap. That's going to be the most of any team in the NFL, at least right now, before all the cuts kind of come through.

26:07Sheil Kapadia:The top six for that, in terms of teams with at least$60 million in effective cap space, are the Titans at the top, Raiders at two, who I think are also going to be spending, projecting that they have a quarterback on a rookie contract, selecting Fernando Mendoza at first overall. Sneaky team, the Chargers. 84 million in effective cast space. Now, there's some people that they probably want to resign. Khalil Mack is in question. We'll see what happens there. Then it's the Jets. Then it's the Commanders. And then the Super Bowl-winning Seattle Seahawks, who have so many free agents. When I did my top 50, I even left some guys out, like Boye Mafé, Kobe Bryant, Kenneth Walker, obviously, Tariq Willen.

26:41Sheil Kapadia:They have a lot of players that played significant snaps with them in that Super Bowl run that are free agents. so they're going to have to make some decisions on who they retain. But those six teams have the most cap space of any teams entering free agency. I think those are going to be the ones that are kind of trying to shell out this big money for who's available.

26:55Austin Gayle:I can tell you what the Titans are going to do, Austin, is that defensively they're going to bring back every player who Robert Sala has coached previously. So they did the Jermaine Johnson trade. Maybe they signed someone like John Franklin Myers. Maybe they signed linebacker Quincy Williams. And I'm not even that upset about that because Salah coached good defenses with the Jets. So if he has players who he thinks fit, that makes sense. And then offensively is where I'm interested. Is it just guys that Brian Dable has coached before? Like, are they Wandel Robinson? Is he going to the Titans?

27:28Austin Gayle:So I think they really need to figure out, like, how can we set up Cam Ward for success the best we can in free agency? Like, if Alec Pierce hits the market, they should kind of, I won't blame them for going crazy and being like, we're blowing every other team out of the water with our offer because we want Cam Ward to be chucking the ball downfield to Alec Pierce. And you know what? We have a lot of cap space and we have a quarterback on a rookie contract. And they got a GM who's probably feeling some urgency because they kind of fire the coach or GM every other year after they underachieve. So I think you're right to identify the Titans at the top of that list.

28:03Austin Gayle:The other team I was thinking about, and you did mention them there, the Washington Commanders, because there's a lot of different ways you can look at cap space and there's going to be so many roster moves here in the next few days. If you look at the cap space where if you just read simple restructures of contracts of players on your roster, which again, over the cap.com is the best for this. The commanders could have the most cap space with those simple restructures of any team in the NFL. And I was thinking about them, you know, last year they felt like we need to accelerate our timeline. We got Jaden Daniels and it was kind of a disaster.

28:35Austin Gayle:Daniels has injuries, they're five and 12. And now they're resetting with a couple of unproven coordinators. And it's like, what are they going to do with this roster? Because you kind of look at the roster and you're like, they need a lot of work on defense. Brandon Ayuk, it seems like he's somebody who certainly could end up there when the 49ers officially release him. Who knows what happened with him and the 49ers. But I'm keeping an eye on the commanders. It could be one of those old school Daniel Snyder type off seasons where you're like the commanders are the off season champs, but maybe they spend that money a little bit more wisely than those commanders teams did.

29:12Sheil Kapadia:I think it's hard to talk about, you know, like what kind of which teams are going to be kind of big spenders. Obviously, like the amount of cap space is a big kind of informant of that. But I also think it's important to like look at who's going to be available, right? Like I don't know of the guys who haven't been tagged that are going to be maybe on the open market, depending on how things go. So Trey Hendrickson is the top of my list right now. Then it's Jalen Phillips, two edge rushers. Tyler Linderbaum, who was another kind of talk of the combine. It sounds like any team with money to spend and need at center is looking to get into Linderbaum sweepstakes at 18 to 20 million per year.

29:46Sheil Kapadia:Maybe even more than that.

29:47Austin Gayle:Drew Dahlman retired, by the way. That was the other piece of news today. So another team may be in the Tyler Linderbaum sweepstakes. But sorry, go ahead.

29:54Sheil Kapadia:No, I think the Chargers are going to be in the mix. The Bears could be in the mix. And the Raiders could be in the mix. Everyone's going to kind of look at Linderbaum as a rare talent that because of how the franchise tag works, because it loops in or kind of lumps in all offensive linemen, the Ravens didn't want to pick up their fifth-year option, his fifth-year option, because of that kind of same reason with the center. They didn't want to pick up, or didn't want to tag him because of the offensive line situation. So you have this rare opportunity where arguably the best center in the NFL could be available in free agency.

30:17Sheil Kapadia:I think the Titans, the Raiders, other teams at the top of that list will be looking to spend big on just that kind of elite-level talent. After that, though, looking offensively, because that's where these teams like Jaden Daniels with the Commanders, Cam Ward with the Titans, assumedly Fernando Mendoza with the Raiders it's easy to kind of identify those teams as ones they're going to spend and specifically where they're going to look to spend is offense but when you look at the best available for agents offensively with Pickens tagged Brees Hall tagged Pierce maybe hitting the market but we'll see I think Indy seems like they're in very close talks to bring him back and tagging Jones and losing Pierce is an outcome I just don't think they even want to consider right now you have Tyler Linderbaum Rasheed Walker offensive tackle for Green Bay and then you keep going down the list Kenneth Walker running back how much does that add?

30:57Sheil Kapadia:we'll see Jawan Jennings, Mike Evans, and you start to get down the list. Like, okay, how much can we actually, who's actually going to come in and be a difference maker for us? That's where I think where a lot of this buyer beware money is going to be. And like, if you're a big spender out of free agency, it's probably going to be on defense because you have Hendrickson, Jalen Phillips, the Eagles head rusher, Quay Walker, the linebacker for Green Bay, Devin Lloyd, the linebacker for Jacksonville. And there's a ton of secondary players as well. Jalen Watson, Kobe Bryant, Cameron Curl. The teams that end up like spending the most money are probably going to be investing on defense.

31:29Sheil Kapadia:And that's where I think a lot of the times too, the buyer beware contracts show up because it's very difficult, especially the further away you get from the ball, not defensive linemen, not offensive linemen. The further away you get from the ball, the harder it is to kind of project, how is this guy going to work in our scheme? An oh no. After the first year, our defense coordinator got fired. So it's a new scheme. And like when you look at big free agent contracts handed out to linebackers and handed out to corners and then even sometimes safeties, those are oftentimes the ones that don't pan out.

31:53Sheil Kapadia:I think that's where a lot of these biggest contracts are going to be.

31:55Austin Gayle:It's a great point. when you go through those offensive names, you're like, all right, Linderbaum. Yeah, I think a fan base would be excited about that. And then you look at the other options on offense and you're kind of just like, yeah, I'm with you. Most of them fall in that buyer beware category. So maybe that makes a team more likely to trade for an AJ Brown, or maybe there's others, you know, surprising trades out there that we will see. But yeah, I think that's a great point. I just think Adam Peters, I mean, I was looking at their draft capital. They've got picks seven and 71. Those are the only two picks in the top 100.

32:29Austin Gayle:So it's kind of like they need to figure some things out in free agency or in the trade market to upgrade their football team. So I think those are some good teams to look at. You mentioned the Chargers. I think they're a really interesting team to look at, both with their own free agents who you mentioned. And do they do anything to be aggressive in free agency, specifically with the interior of their offensive line? Because they've got cap space. I got my eye on the Rams and 49ers a little bit, just two teams that are like knocking on the door, both played a divisional round in the NFC Championship game, have some flexibility.

33:06Austin Gayle:The 49ers do have some flexibility with their cap. And the Rams, don't forget, had two picks in the first round because of that trade they made with the Atlanta Falcons, which was a disaster trade for the Falcons the second it was made. We do have receipts on that one. A lot of bad takes, don't get me wrong. But that was one I was like, what are the Falcons doing? Matthew Stafford entering his age 38 season. So whether it's a Max Crosby, whether there's another trade out there, those are two teams that I'm just kind of like, I'm interested to see what they're up to here in the next week or two.

33:40Sheil Kapadia:No, definitely. I think the trade market, it's not, I know a big piece of this podcast, but I know the Max Crosby stuff, I'm a big Raiders fan. It sounds like the asking price is two first round picks and a player, and they don't feel like they have to come down from that. you can't scroll Twitter without another team getting into the Max Crosby sweepstakes. It sounds like there's six to eight teams that are throwing offers at the Raiders. I've heard from different Raiders beat writers that like two firsts have been offered and they are like... Interesting. There is like an actual market for him in that you're not like negotiating between one or two teams, two or three teams what's the best offer.

34:17Sheil Kapadia:They're actually going to have like, I think a suite of offers that include players and include multiple draft picks. I think that's a big domino to fall. A.J. Brown, I think, is another domino. We have to figure out where these quarterbacks go. When you bring up those teams with two first-round picks, some of this, too, is, and this was a lot of the conversation, I think, about this draft class and at the Combine as well, is people want 2027 first-round picks, too. People want an opportunity at that quarterback class. People feel like that class overall is a little bit better. And it'll be interesting with teams like Washington, is that a team, because they only have two picks in the top 100 or wherever it is, are they trading back?

34:48Sheil Kapadia:Are they looking for opportunities to kind of get into next year's draft? I think some of these teams, especially in the cap situations where you're middle of the pack or even below the pack, adding more rookie deals helps kind of solve some of those problems. And free agency, oftentimes we've seen this, teams that win in free agency are either they don't spend at all and they've retained a lot of their talent and they've drafted well, or they make one, maybe two, splashy, top-of-the-market plays with guys that can fit in their system. immediately guys usually in the trenches. And then it's finding capable starters for mid to low end deals that are either proof of deals or just shorter range, lower guarantees at linebacker, at corner, at safety, at receiver.

35:26Sheil Kapadia:I think that's how you win this free agent class. Like you win it by not, Oh, we got Tyler Linderbaum and we got Trey Hendrickson and, and we brought in Juwan Jennings at a big deal in the San Francisco 49ers wide receiver. That's adding yes, a lot of like technically top and talent of what's available, but I think it's almost only like overspending where the heart of this free agency class, when you get into like the 20s and 40s of like people's top rankings, that's where I think you're going to find a lot of the value.

35:49Austin Gayle:Yeah, when you mentioned, you know, Linderbaum, to your point there, I was thinking about the Chargers and I know their fans would be excited for Linderbaum, but I'm like, you might have to fill both guard spots and center, you know, would it make sense to sign a center for$8 million and then make sure you have better depth with the guards there. So teams have decisions to make both at the top of the market and then with the other holes. They have to fill. You just ran through a bunch of different free agents at the top of your list. I wanted to get into maybe under the radar guys who could get monster deals, kind of guys who you look at and say, maybe they're not being talked about like Tyler Linderbaum or some of Alec Pierce or some of those guys.

36:30Austin Gayle:They're a little lower on the list. Maybe they don't have the name recognition, but come Monday or Tuesday, we're going to be like, whoa, that player got a monster deal. So I've got a couple written down, but let's start with you. Who do you, who's one guy that kind of fits that category for you?

36:45Sheil Kapadia:I'm going to kick things off with Caleb on chase on the new England Patriots edge rusher. He's kind of bounced around the league. He's a former first round pick for the Jacksonville Jaguars. He was with Carolina for a little bit. He was at the Raiders for a little bit, and then kind of recently had his best kind of career best season with new England this past year. He's only 26 years old entering kind of his age 27 season proven pass rusher, not proven, but like this past year had like the best pass rushing productivity of his career. He is someone that I don't think you're seeing at the top of a ton of lists right now.

37:15Sheil Kapadia:And I think, honestly, I'm a little bit low on him in my free agent rankings. I think I have him around in like the 40 ranges. But like, for me, pass rushing talent, oftentimes you're paying after the fact that you've seen, like with Jalen Phillips, with Trey Hendrickson, the guys at the top of this edge market, they're going to get paid fat for the stuff that they've already done. With Chase on, in only one year, and kind of bouncing around the league, I think you're going to have this kind of unique opportunity to bring in someone who is going to affect the passing game right away. and I think it's finally kind of found his stride on how he wins as a pass rusher.

37:44Sheil Kapadia:He came in as this like raw, athletic, toolsy prospect out of LSU. I think he's gotten a lot better over the course of the year and specifically got a lot better with New England. Chason's one where I wouldn't be surprised if he does sign a decent check because teams need pass rushing help. Edge rusher is a premium position. You know, this edge class in the draft, I think is very good and pretty deep, but still you need two, maybe three on every team to be successful. And defense is when you're trying to say, hey, we need to add players in free agency. that are going to kind of be forced multipliers and make other people better and help us in spots where we don't have talent.

38:15Sheil Kapadia:Edge rusher is usually one where you're looking.

38:17Austin Gayle:Edge rusher is a very interesting edge rusher free agency class because like you said, you have Trey Hendrickson. If you're just like, give me the guy who is going to hit the quarterback the most in this class. I think it's Trey Hendrickson. I don't think anyone would argue otherwise, but that position has changed so much with the way defenses have changed where so many of these defensive coordinators are like, no, it's not just that. Like I need someone who's going to, set the edge and play the run and drop into coverage occasionally and rush the passer. How do they rush the passer? You know, that depends schematically too.

38:48Austin Gayle:So it's like Hendrickson at the top. And then that next tier is very interesting to me. Jalen Phillips and Odafe Owe. I think Owe is a guy who the number could be quite high. Like I think it'd be less than Jalen Phillips, but you know, he got traded last season from the Ravens to the Chargers, had seven and a half sacks in 12 games with the Chargers. Previous year had 10 sacks, has been pretty durable, is a former first round pick, which does matter to a lot of these teams because they go back to their draft evaluations and they're like, oh, we love that guy. We were hoping he would have dropped to us or we had a great interview with him.

39:22Austin Gayle:It's amazing how often you hear that when you're like, all right, that should matter a little. But the guys played in the NFL for four or five years, don't overweight it. But I don't know, I'm looking at$22 million per year, something like that. For Odafe Owe, that wouldn't surprise me at all. And I think Jalen Phillips probably gets more than that. Maybe he's in the$24,$25 million range. So those are two interesting ones to me just when we're talking about that edge market.

39:47Sheil Kapadia:Yeah, I think Odafe Owe and Boye Mafe, the CLC Hawks edge rusher, is also a free agent. I think those are two where in free agency, you might be surprised by how much money they're going to get. One I just can't get on board with that I've heard a decent amount is Quidipe, the former first round pick for the Indianapolis Colts. He has not figured out his plan as a pass rusher. I don't think he's necessarily gotten better as a run defender. And there have been, in the past at least, injury concerns. Now, for the last three years, he's played over 700 snaps. And some of that durability has been answered.

40:16But for me, some of these numbers,

40:19Sheil Kapadia:if you're paying him$20 million a year, I don't see it. I don't see it with Quidi Pay. I think that Odafe Owe, Boye Mafe, Kalevan Chason, Jalon Phillips, and Trey Hendrickson are all, I guess, five or six guys that I feel like, okay, if you end up offering them in that$20 million-plus range. I think you could get good returns. Pay, I don't feel that way. And if you're getting to the pay level where he's a former first-round pick, he's a little bit younger, maybe in his prime, I'd rather have Joey Bosa. I'd rather have Khalil Mack. I'd rather have some of these older guys that I know I can sign to a one-year,$15 million deal, whatever it is, and know that I'm going to get consistent production.

40:51Sheil Kapadia:And just the type of player that I'm not investing long-term. And this is where you get hurt in free agency is you offer a ton of money for potential on a multi-year deal. Where you haven't really seen it yet, but he's a Like you said, they care about being a first-round pick, all this stuff. I think offering money on multi-year deal with a ton of guarantees for production that you just haven't seen yet is where people start to kind of lose their shorts in free agency. And that's where, I don't know. I think the Patriots went to the Super Bowl last year with a ton of free agent talent. They spent a ton of money last offseason.

41:21Sheil Kapadia:I think it worked in a lot of ways because they brought in Milton Williams. That was their kind of bell-of-the-ball signing. And then everywhere else, they were kind of looking for values and system fits and culture fits. And that's the right way to approach free agency. Like if you think there's a elite level, like whether it's Linderbaum, Hendrickson, Phillips, Pierce, if he actually touches the market, maybe go chase one of those top guys, but everything after that, these hype players, these guys that are kind of being projected way higher than you'd ever thought to spend. But the only reason they're getting there is because the cap just went up to 300 million and they're testing the open market.

41:49Sheil Kapadia:You're oftentimes I think better kind of taking a step back from those like big sweepstakes for tier two, tier three players.

41:55Austin Gayle:I think linebackers a position to just chill, chill a little bit. Absolutely. You know, like they're got, It's pretty deep. It's a pretty deep group here. There are guys at the top of the market. Are you giving Devin Lloyd$18 million per year? Are you like, let me just chill a little bit. A guy I like a lot, and this is a local one, N 'Kobe Dean, I'm looking at. I started 23 games for the Eagles the last two seasons. I legitimately think that when he's healthy, he can perform like a top 10 linebacker in the NFL. I think he is a fantastic player. He's 26 years old. He's off the charts. You mentioned sort of the intangibles, like that's culture.

42:32Austin Gayle:Like that's something you have to be careful of when you're going to free agency because you don't have all the answers with that type of stuff. With him, his football character is said to be off the charts, just his smarts, his leadership. So he's a culture setter guy who maybe you get for$12 million rather than shopping at the top of the market there with someone like Devin Lloyd, or I don't even know what Quay Walker is going to get, but that more athletic, splashy type player who's going to cost more. I would say just kind of sit out maybe the first 24, 48 hours if you're looking for an off-ball linebacker because there are some intriguing options in this class.

43:06Sheil Kapadia:Yeah, Koi Walker, the Green Bay Packers off-ball linebacker, and Devin Lloyd of the Jags, those guys are going to get paid a lot. And going into different systems, I remember it's a while back, but the Corey Littleton contract, the Raiders signed maybe like six, eight years ago now. And I remember the immediate thing that they were saying is like, this talented player, blah, blah, blah, goes in a new system, just completely different player. And I think with linebacker, especially that can happen where Devin Lloyd, who for a first round pick was solid to start, but really had this breakout year under Anthony Campanile in Jacksonville, all of a sudden goes somewhere else.

43:41Sheil Kapadia:And you're starting to ask different questions. And is he living up to the 19, 20 million dollars you might have to pay him. So I don't know. I like Alex Singleton too. He's 32 years old. Sure. But like you're bringing in guys at maybe a third or even a quarter of what Devin Lloyd and Quay Walker are going to sign for and arguably can get similar production. That said, Lloyd and Walker, athletic primes, getting that first contract out or like that kind of first major contract opportunity. It makes sense why they're being paid. It's just when you're paying that much money and it kind of comes back to every player that you sign in free agency, you have to have a legitimate plan to maximize that opportunity.

44:12Sheil Kapadia:Because if you don't, one year, two years down the road, you're saying, oh no, we got to cut him. Oh no, we got to trade and release him and like that. That's going to end up happening with, that's what ultimately ends up happening with a lot of free agent deals where it doesn't pan out. You think you had this plan for him. Coaching change happens. And all of a sudden you're paying 19,$20 million a year for a player that ultimately it would be better for you to cut than keep and pay at that money.

44:31Austin Gayle:Great example. Tremaine Edmonds. A couple of years ago, wait, Tremaine Edmonds got what from the Chicago bears. And then what's the headline you read this week? Tremaine Edmonds not, might not be a part of the Chicago bears, uh, next season. Are, are, are they going to trade him? So let's take a break. We come back. I want to get to some more, see if Austin has any other under-the-radar guys, maybe some sleepers where we say this would be a smart player to sign or maybe some buyer beware type options. All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show. I know you had this guy ranked pretty highly, Austin, but I think Packers left tackle Rasheed Walker, I just feel like given the market for left tackles, he's probably going to be a$22 million per year type player.

45:12Austin Gayle:when you see Dan Moore last year got over$20 million and Alaric Jackson got$19 million from the Rams. It's kind of like if you're under 30 and you're a left tackle and you're like a competent starter, that's just kind of what the price is and teams are going to have to decide whether they want to pay it or not. I think he's worth it, though.

45:32Sheil Kapadia:It's hard to find. I think it's hard to find. He's 26 years old. He turned 26 in February. He's played 900-plus snaps each of the last three years, almost exclusively at left tackle. He's been more than serviceable as a run blocker, or as a pass blocker. I think where run blocking is not like his strong suit or where he's really picked up steam. For me, there are too many teams in the NFL that are fringe playoff competitive or even possibly deep Super Bowl competitive that when they look at their left tackle, they're saying, we have question marks. And if you're able to, at 20, 22,$24 million per year, shore that up, at least from a pass-protecting standpoint with Rasheed Walker, I think he has a ton of value in that respect.

46:12Sheil Kapadia:Now, I also think of any of the positions that you sign big in free agency, like I said, the further you get away from the ball, I think the more you start to see like, oh no, like this linebacker, this safety, this corner, this, you know, they're not panning out in this new system. And even with like, on the other side, like receivers and all that, it gets harder to kind of wrap your head around making it multiple regimes. A left tackle, offensive line, you rarely see these things pan out to where you're not getting that play that you want. Now, I think the worry would be like, okay, are you bringing someone who's injury prone or has a specific flaw.

46:40Sheil Kapadia:And I don't think you see that with Rasheed Walker. Is he as good as the money he's going to get? Probably not in terms of just like a pure talent perspective. But for the value he brings to stabilize, arguably the second most important position in football with left tackle, I think it makes a ton of sense.

46:56Austin Gayle:Yeah, the thing you have to wrap your head around in free agency is that competent play, like competent starting play at a premium position is going to cost a lot of money. And you have to decide what's the shape of your roster? Are you willing to pay that? What other holes do you have to fill? Where are you in your timeline? Like you said, are you a contending team right now? Because then I'm more willing to be like, yeah, you know, like, well, all right, this is more than he's worth. But if you just have a number of like, this is exactly what the guy's worth and we're not going above it, you're probably, you're not going to sign anybody.

47:24Austin Gayle:It's the nature of free agency that guys get to hit the market and actually see what they're, what they're going to be paid. And you end up having to overpay a little bit. I wanted to get to some sleepers. maybe that, hey, smart teams should target some of these players. I mentioned Dean earlier. I actually had, it's interesting what you said on Mafe, because I was actually looking at Mafe going, is he going to get a, like, what's his deal going to look like? Does it look more like a$15 million per year player where if you're a team that's maybe in the market for Jalen Phillips or Odafe Owe, and they get up to 24, 25 million and you say, all right, that's too rich for us.

48:02Austin Gayle:But hey, Boye Mafe could be a solid starter for us at$15 million. Played for the Seahawks last year, played about 50 % of the snaps, did not have prolific production, but had more production the previous two years. That was a name I had in mind, but it sounds like you think he might get more money than I'm projecting here.

48:21Sheil Kapadia:I think there's a chance. I think it's because you start to get further down the edge market in free and sea, and you start to see like, okay, there's like only a handful of like legit starters left. and I think a lot of people feel like he's on the rise, right? Where he is athletically in his prime coming off this season with Seattle. I like Boye Mafe. I think as the price goes up, it gets kind of harder and harder to stomach it. And I would much rather him be this 15 to 16 million per year player versus, you know, obviously you're signing him at like 20 to 22. I think other under the radar players are the two Bills offensive linemen that could test free agency here.

48:55Sheil Kapadia:You have David Edwards, the guard, and then Connor McGovern, the safety. Or no, sorry, sorry, the center. Andrew Barry at his podium the GM for the Cleveland Browns he has like I think five offensive linemen entering from agency like their entire starting offensive line is on expiring contracts and he just made that trade for Titus Howard but he said the Bears last year when they went and got Drew Dahlman who's now retired we'll see what happens there but then also traded for Joe Tooney Jonah Jackson he's like that's the model like bringing in guys to come in together right away and kind of establish that synergy and establish that chemistry in this like first wave I think David Edwards and Connor McGovern, if you're like, we need to sure up the interior offensive line, which a lot of teams like the Chargers, the Raiders, teams with a lot of money are kind of going into offseason and saying, we need to figure this out as well.

49:38Sheil Kapadia:Rather than going 20 mil to Linderbaum and then trying to figure out the guard spots like you were saying with the Chargers, is there an opportunity to keep McGovern and Edwards together off from this kind of thing and maybe it ends up being like maybe 30 mil for the both of them per year or whatever it is and you're shoring up that offensive line, guys that have played together, played next to each other that I think are still very capable players and they're not even

49:59Sheil Kapadia:I think attacking the Cade Mays, right? Cade Mays, the center for the Carolina Panthers. David Edwards, like I said. Conor McGovern. Those types of offensive linemen. Elijah Vera Tucker, who was a former first-round pick for the New York Jets. Injuries have kind of derailed his stuff, but that might help you get him at a discount. Going into free agency and trying to attack, specifically the interior offensive line, the guys that aren't at the top of the market like Linderbaum, that's where I think some of the value can be had as well.

50:24Austin Gayle:I like that idea, team. Like the Chargers, the Raiders, taking both those Bills offensive linemen. I mean, the Bills have not had O-line injuries here. That's been like the key to their success over the past two years is they have the same five guys starting such a high percentage of the snaps. It's really worked for them. And those interior offensive line minutes, like you don't need the elite athlete. You don't like, you kind of, it's the old weak link theory on offensive line play and secondary play that you just don't want the one person who the opponent is attacking and targeting. And it's like, this guy's a disaster for us every single week.

50:57Austin Gayle:You just want that baseline level of competency. If you get the all pro, that's great. But in free agency, that's not what you're shopping for. You're kind of trying to set that floor at a lot of these positions. So yeah, I like that idea quite a bit with those two offensive linemen. Buyer beware, guys. Let's finish with this. Austin, do you have anyone on your list where you're like, ooh, if you're going to spend a lot of money on this type of player? Because I think what you said earlier about the scheme stuff, is a big, big deal on defense with stuff like safety, corner, linebacker. It's just like, we've seen too many examples of a guy looks like this in one scheme and a guy looks like this when he goes to a different scheme.

51:40Austin Gayle:And I think that's something to keep an eye on with some of these defensive players as well.

51:44Sheil Kapadia:I think both linebackers that I've brought up maybe dragged too much, but I think Devin Lloyd and Quay Walker are going to get paid a ton of money. And if one or both of those guys ends up not living up to that contract and end up being cut or trade candidates in two, maybe even like one or whatever many years, that wouldn't surprise me. I also think that the running backs, right? I think Kenneth Walker is going to get paid fat coming off Super Bowl MVP. He didn't get tagged.

52:08Austin Gayle:Big winner with this tag for Brie Saul is Kenneth Walker.

52:11Sheil Kapadia:He's going to get paid. I think Travis Etienne could get paid. I'm interested to see like how much money they actually signed for. And if we're just saying, okay, because they're on the free agent market, we're going to give these guys 15 million plus per year. You know what the Cowboys did with Javante Williams, bringing him back in that like 8 million per year range, like almost cut in half of what you're paying for Brees Hall. Like those, those running back contracts make a little bit more sense to me. I think the other kind of buyer beware is, you know, is like the corner that I keep kind of coming back and forth on.

52:41Sheil Kapadia:Like, I really love how he plays the game. I love the physicality. I love the instincts, but you know, it's always hard with these corners that like maybe are slot only types came to play outside. Elante Taylor, the New Orleans States corner, who I have very high on my free agent rankings. is because I just love his tape, and I think he just plays the game the right way. But paying big for corner in free agency has oftentimes just not panned out for teams. And I think about the Legereus knee contract that Tennessee Titans signed all the time, where he was this phenomenal player, far outperformed, where he was drafted with Kansas City, signs to this big monster deal with Tennessee to be their corner, outside corner.

53:13Sheil Kapadia:And he just says, Borderline not even been a top 10, top 12 corner at his position, if anything, been far below that. And you're going to have guys like Elante Taylor, Jalen Watson, Tariq Wollin, Nashawn Wright for the Chicago Bears who just come off a Pro Bowl season. These corners who are probably going to demand decent money, it's just so hard, right? When you spend big on corners, specifically outside corners, expecting them to kind of be this difference maker now. You're making this money to be this difference maker. I think those are contracts oftentimes that end up being kind of those buyer beware ones.

53:41Austin Gayle:I wrote down like every corner for buyer beware. Just because of what you said. I mean, you mentioned it. I was looking at Elante Taylor and I'm like, is he going to get like 19 million? Could. Per year? Could. I mean, that's what I had down for him because I'm like Paulson Adebo got 18 million. Byron Murphy got 18 million. Like that's probably the range we're talking about for Alante Taylor. And I'm with you. I like him as a player. It's just like, hmm, that would make me a little bit nervous. Jalen Watson, if I'm getting a corner from like a SPAG system and I'm a zone team, like that would probably make me a little bit nervous for someone like Jalen Watson.

54:17Austin Gayle:Reek Woolen, you mentioned, it's like it was kind of up and down. Were they looking to trade him at the trade deadline? He still played a bunch of snaps for him and he's had, you know, he can cover. He's got good tape out there, but he's not a perfect player. He won't be a perfect player for everybody. Nashawn Wright, you mentioned some of the most spectacular interceptions we saw last year, but it's like, that's like five plays out of however many snaps you played the entire season. How confident am I investing in a player like that? So I think all those corners are good ones. Just to close the loop on the running backs you mentioned.

54:48Austin Gayle:And before the Brees Hall contract, I had Kenneth Walker projection at like 13 mil per year. And now maybe I bumped that up a little bit. Maybe it's 14, 15 mil per year. But it's kind of like if you want a running back one, he is going to be at the top of your list. And then even ETN, when I was going through this, I was kind of surprised. I'm like 11 mil a year for ETN probably. Yeah, that's where I had him at over 1 ,300 yards from scrimmage. in three or four NFL seasons. So I'm with you. I am generally not in favor of paying that tier of running back on the open market. I would rather pay two guards, six and a half million dollars and address running back in the draft.

55:31Austin Gayle:Easier for me to say than a GM, but I do think that's kind of smart roster building. And then the last guy I had, Austin, in terms of buyer beware, you mentioned him earlier. It's a real interesting one at linebacker is Devin Bush because he's had like this strange career where he's bounced around and he was on three teams in three seasons and he's not old. He's still in his 20s. And it's like, he was awesome last year for the Browns. Did things click? Or was that just like Jim Schwartz has got sort of a very unique style of defense now compared to the way the rest of the league is going. And if you don't have Jim Schwartz as your coordinator, maybe you don't pay Devin Bush a lot of money.

56:10Sheil Kapadia:Yeah, I think with Bush, you're going to have to hope he's playing in a very similar system that he was with Schwartz. because I do think Schwartz and what he asked Bush to do, and the defensive line that they have with Garrett and that stuff, I think helped unlock a lot of what the Steelers hoped for when they traded all the way up, I think it was 10, to go get him in the first round, one of the few times that the Steelers have ever traded up for a player. It's not as plug and play, right? When people, I think a lot of fans or anyone kind of goes in the offseason and says, oh my God, we need a linebacker.

56:38Sheil Kapadia:We need a tackle. We need this or whatever. It's not as simple as like, he's one of the best ones. Let's go fill that need. I do think you really have to pay attention to system and what you're going to ask him to do. Opposite side, I didn't mention him earlier, but I think a gem that I'm excited to see where he goes. And I know he's been rumored to maybe be interested in the Philadelphia Eagles. Cleveland Browns or former Cleveland Browns tight end, David Njoku. 29 years old, I think still has a lot to offer. Obviously the Browns kind of moving forward with Harold Fannin or whatever, but his teams are running more 12, 13 personnel trying to add these different flavors at tight end.

57:12Sheil Kapadia:And Joku goes to a team with already kind of an established tight end one. and is able to kind of be this second piece that they're able to move around a bit and offer in these 12 and 13 personnel sets, that really excites me. Because I do think something that happened with last year, right, is people were coming out in 13 personnel, and it's like, okay, this is like a run set. People are going to try and run the football as heavy personnel, and then they're throwing out of it and figuring out how to make Jackson Hawes or Colby Parkinson or whoever work. What happens when the Rams have Higby and Njoku as their top two tight ends?

57:42Sheil Kapadia:Or like with the Raiders, I'm a big Raiders fan, but they have Brock Bowers, Michael Mayer. You entered this other sprinkle of like an Isaiah Likely, who's also a free agent this offseason, Njoku. I wonder how much, as teams are thinking, how many tight ends do we want to play consistently? How much are we going to be in 12, 13 personnel? You look at Njoku, you look at Isaiah Likely, Dallas Goddard could potentially be a free agent, the Eagles tight end. I kind of am interested to see where the tight ends go because I think I wouldn't be shocked where in the past it's been, okay, who's their tight end one?

58:08Sheil Kapadia:Oh, we know they're not going to be in 12 that often or their second tight end comes on or someone they're run blocking. As this league shifts a little bit, I think to more under center stuff, trying to get big people on, on the field and then throw out of it. Our team's going to start to kind of gravitate more towards like we have two legit pass catching weapons at tight end. And that's just going to give us ultimately more flexibility on when we go big and we want to throw out of it. We have guys that can really make plays with the ball.

58:29Austin Gayle:Sneaky, interesting tight end group here for sure. The names you mentioned. Yeah. And Joku, Isaiah likely Dallas Goddard. It's like, where are those probably somewhere in like the 11 to$13 million per year range. and then you have to decide, would I rather have one of those guys or would I rather have Jawan Jennings or Wandel Robinson? So yeah, it depends. The Jawan Jennings market,

58:53Sheil Kapadia:I think, is another player too, like the receiver for San Francisco. I think he's going to be one where I could see him getting paid a ton and overpaid and maybe not panning out or I could see him coming in middle of the pack, middle range for receiver, but then unlocking things. Does he reunite with Rob Sala in Tennessee and come in and be the possession, and chains moving guy for Cam Ward. I don't know. I think Jennings' market, I think, is another one where after Pierce, after the top end skill players go, Jennings is going to be one where when the dust settles, is he someone who's coming in and kind of being that impact player.

59:25Austin Gayle:I do like the further away you get from the line of scrimmage theory. I have that for age too. Like if I have a 30-year-old, I want, that's got to be someone close to the line of scrimmage. 30-year-old guard? Yeah, absolutely. Bring him in. 30-year-old wide receiver, a corner? Like, I don't know. You don't have a lot left. That's kind of the way the league has gone. So Austin's got all that information he just gave you. You check all that out. TheRinger.com. He's got the top 50 free agents here with great write-ups on all of these guys with a bunch of salary projections and nuggets and analytics and all those things.

1:00:02Austin Gayle:Go find the players you want your team to sign or better yet, find the players who you think the team you hate is going to sign. And then you can make fun of them when they overpay in free agency. Yeah, because that's what ends up happening for as much as we like some of these players. The big names, the big spenders on Monday and Tuesday might be the teams we actually end up making fun of. Anyway, check that out on TheRinger.com. All right, thanks to everybody for listening. Thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing, Stefano Sanchez on video, and additional production supervision by Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopal.

1:00:34Austin Gayle:I'm Shio Kapadia. We will be back later this week on The Ringer NFL Show.

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