Making the Case for the AFC's Top Playoff Sleeper With Nate Tice

0:00Welcome to the Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia. Thrilled to have my friend Nate Tice. You know him from Yahoo Sports, the Football 301 podcast. We are going to talk sneaky AFC playoff contenders. The idea is straightforward. On average, since the NFL moved to this new playoff format, six new teams make the playoffs every year on average, three in each conference. So Danny Heifetz and I did the NFC. Make sure you listen to that one in the feed. And today, Nate and I will do the AFC. Nate, first of all, thanks for joining me. Before we start, I'm told by a source that you were posting all 22 clips of a Bears preseason game at what I believe was 7.24 a.m.

0:45local time this morning. And so before we get to that, I just need to know, are you okay? Do you need anything as your friend? Can I help you? No, I'm not okay. I'm not okay. I'm actually great because there's actually stuff to react to, which is amazing. So maybe that's why I wake up the morning geared up and ready to rock. But no, I was wondering if you'd call me out on that. And it's not even we're talking AFC today. It's not even this division or conference that we're talking about today. And I was like, I got to check out Caleb. I got to see how Caleb Williams did. He looked great, by the way, in case you were wondering.

1:16He looked phenomenal. But no, when you wake up at five, as you know, wake up at 515 or to 530 every day with your two year old. And then you're up and at them. and then you already are like, you feel like the army. We do more before 8 a.m. before most people do most days. I love it. I watch more film before 7 a.m. than most people do all day. I love it. And you were, listen, I can confirm that he was pounding a coffee like three seconds before we came on. So this guy's ready to go. It's not just Caleb Williams. He is ready to talk AFC playoff sleepers. We're going to take a quick break. We'll come back and we'll do just that.

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3:38All right, Nate, here we go. So we were actually discussing briefly before we came on. The AFC is hard because if you're like, hey, you know what? that Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. I don't really feel like fading those guys this year. Then you have three playoff teams already accounted for. And so now you got this group of four where you're trying to potentially find three new playoff teams to fit those spots. So the teams we're talking about that didn't make the playoffs last year, Bengals, Colts, Dolphins, Jets, Jaguars, Patriots, Raiders, Browns, and Titans. And so that's the group we're choosing from.

4:15We have not discussed this. So will we surprise each other? Will we have hive mind? Let's get to it, Nate. Who is your first team that didn't make the playoffs in the AFC last year that you think is going to make it this year? I feel like I'm knowing which company you work for. I feel like I'm playing to the crowd here. But also, it seems the AFC is tough. This is what we talked about before the show, to find these new teams. Like you said, the teams at the top, it feels like the elite are pretty set. but then it also feels like the good teams, you know, the tiered down, I mean, like Broncos kind of teams, like they feel pretty good this year as well.

4:51So I was like, okay, who drops off Chargers, I guess, but to fill their place, I went with the New England Patriots and this is, they're at plus 164. I looked on FanDuel, which is also interesting because there's a couple of odds on there. I'm like, okay, this is making me start second guess some of my old opinions here, but this is a bet on Drake May taking the leap that I think he will. This is more just competency around them. This is me thinking that the division of the AFC East will drop off. I'm not saying that they will win the division, but that is four games against the Jets and the Dolphins.

5:22I think the Jets will be frisky with the run game and stuff, but I think the Dolphins are going to have such a weird year this year. I think just Patriots being competent, they can get some gimmies there. But yeah, I don't know if you have the same team and you want me to break down the Patriots for you. So here's where I am. I did them in order of what I feel most confident about to least confident. And the Patriots were my third one. So I think if you said she'll make your actual AFC playoff predictions, I might say, you know what? There's only going to be two new teams this year. And I don't know if I have the Patriots in there.

5:55But for our exercise, I do have them. And I think you make it, you know, they have the second easiest schedule. Yeah, they got the second easiest schedule in the NFL. Vrabel's an upgrade. You have been, I would say, maybe the biggest Drake May fan in the NFL content space since the draft to now. And I was a little more questioning him in the draft, but I liked what I saw last year. I mean, I have this stat that 31 rookie QBs over the last 10 years, he ranked fourth in success rate as a rookie among that group of 31. And that's with, I mean, look who he was working with. So I think the case is there.

6:31Now, I do want to ask you about this. Josh McDaniels. I feel like people like a Josh McDaniels I am in the camp of can the guy do something without Bill Belichick holding his hand before I give him the benefit of the doubt so convince me that Josh McDaniels is the right coach and that this actually is an upgrade for Drake May in his second season I think that the fact that he's the OC and not the head coach play caller that's going to help where it's just he's the offense coordinator and he has Vrabel to maybe you know, bop him on the nose every once in a while. So maybe that'll help a little bit.

7:06Keep him in check. Josh McDaniels is confusing in my brain where I used to think I didn't really like his stuff. I thought it was very archaic and boring. And then I came around on it a little bit, like maybe his last couple of years with the Patriots, the Cam Newton year is one of my favorite quirky offensive pairings the last since I've been in media. And I think when I watch him, I'm just like, he's a B to me where I think it's like, I I think he's above board, but I think the thing with them is that a lot of their explosive plays are designer plays. But you need to do like, so, OK, some designs get there.

7:40They need guys to create that that ceiling, which is a lot of offenses. But I think him more than anything, I think he's a high floor offensive play caller. But the ceiling is all dependent on the play skill players, which is a lot of coordinators. But I think some are better than others at designing plays and getting guys. Oh, Ben Johnson's one. You know, there's some others out there. but I think that having said all that Drake May is a walking talking explosive play that's why I think he's very appealing to me as a quarterback because as a runner and a thrower he's looking to gain 20 yards he's looking to gain down the field and I think they know that I think really this preseason has been a lot of like okay let's let's get the singles let's get you on base because we know that you can swing for the fences and it's been it's been interesting I think it's been pretty cool what they're trying to make him do and I think he can fit any type of offense my big thing is it's an offense that wants to run at you run down your throat and then hit over the top and get the safeties come up and everything the line has been improved but they still have a garrett bradbury at center who was awful last year and it's been awful this preseason so now you're just like okay well now i'm starting a question mark at center we still have question marks along the offensive line i know i'm supposed to be spilling the story that these guys make the playoffs but these are the questions i have so yeah it's really just looking at the skill players and how well they can compensate for everything else.

8:59They added some juice in Kyle Williams, Travion Henderson, who both Travion especially has looked really good this preseason. And then defensively, I think they're going to be at the very least a top half defense, top 16 defense. Are they top five? I don't think that. But maybe they can get to eighth-ish. They can get to that 8-12 range. They have some pieces that are really nice. Robert Splane was a really nice signing, I thought. Christian Gonzalez is a really good player. Carlton Davis is only going to play 11 or 12 games like he does every year. So the games that he's not in is going to be a little scary at the other corner spot.

9:30I think they have a good front, too. They got good size. They got good speed. They got a nice mix of type of players that can move around, too. So, yeah, I don't know. I have good feelings on this team. And like you said, I'm not saying they're going to be my sneaky playoff team. But in this exercise, they are one that I actually feel decent about considering the other options that we're going to talk about. Yeah, it's not hard to get. All right, mediocre offense. And it doesn't sound exciting, but it's like mediocre offense. But this is what you have to do. This is the math you have to do. Mediocre defense.

9:58Maybe special teams are good. Maybe Vrabel's game management is good. And you have an easy schedule. Like that could be nine wins. I found it's easy for me to get them to like seven or eight wins. And then in my head, I'm like, are they another off season away from getting to that next level? So I think that's where I kind of am with them. But I think they got a shot. Yeah, like I said, I had them on my list. I think you described McDaniels well in his, every time he hasn't been with Belichick, he's yet to produce an above average offense. Now he's had some terrible quarterbacks. So I'm with you, what you said, that it depends on the talent, but I'm just like, even those Cam Newton and Mac Jones years, it's like, well, he did have Belichick, you know, who everyone tells you, he could coach the offense.

10:37So I'm like, that helps. So I think your Vrabel points a good one. And all reports out of New England are like, Vrabel's actually spending a lot of time with the offense. And so does he have that Belichick gene where he's like, hey, I'm not just handing the keys to you. I want to make sure this thing runs the way I want it to run as well. So I think the Patriots are good. I think the Vrabel-May relationship is also going to be a good one. Not every quarterback I like with Vrabel because he's such a defensive hard-o. I really like Vrabel. I really do. I think his game management stuff is underrated.

11:09But man, with May, I can take it. And I think that's why I'm like, okay, this one could work. I know you said I'm one of the high guys on him. I think there's going to be some special moments from him this year because he just has that ceiling breaker type of skill set. Even if he'll have some lulls, maybe some, you know, because he goes on a heat check. He might have some tip, you know, a tip pick or a fumble like we've seen this preseason and everything. But, man, I just think that if he really does what I mean, that high end, what I think he could be, they could really surprise some people this year.

11:39All right. Patriots are the first team. Again, I had him as my three, so we knocked him out. Here's my first one, the one I'm most confident in. And this is just right on brand for me, Nate, is that I got the Bengals. You did okay. Okay. I got the, here's the case. I'm hemming and hawing. I've made this case for years that if you have a great offense, the defense, it doesn't need to be that. Like if you look at the top five offenses in the NFL over whatever the last decade, like over 90 % of the time, regardless of everything else, special teams, coaching, defense, they're in the playoffs. Guess what?

12:15The 2024 Bengals were the exception. You can't suck quite that much on defense where you're just like, what's going on here? You know, you can't win close games with that group. So I look at it overall and they were four and seven in one score games last year. Burrow, Chase and Higgins. It's weird to say because you believe in offensive line. But it's almost like I don't want to say it doesn't matter. I think it affects their ceiling. But they've shown as long as those three guys are on the field, that they're pretty much going to have a top five offense. We saw it last year. We saw it in 2022 when Joe Burrow was healthy.

12:48They have scheme continuity, all that stuff. So I'm not telling you they're going to make the Super Bowl. I think there are limitations. I have lots of hangups about that defense. But I have them as like a 10-win team this year getting into the playoffs. So it didn't sound like they're one of your teams. What do you think of the Bengals? So I realize I put myself, painted myself in a corner here because then that means I have to nominate two other teams as potential playoff teams. and one of them is not the Bengals who are minus 144. By the way, when I looked it up, I kept them. It's just I think I know what they are in the weirdest way.

13:24And it's just what I've seen the last two years, especially last year, is I think we did our top 10 offensive show just like all of us do, all these offenses, defensive quarterback. My rankings coming out on the ringer this week, Nate, all 32. I was just going to ask. So I had the Bengals at third on top 10 offenses. Wow. I'm, I've become more of a Zach Taylor defender than when I was a few years ago, because I think he gets a lot of, it's the classic things go well. Well, it's Burrow. Things go bad. Well, fricking Zach Taylor didn't call the right play there. And which is a great spot for Joe Burrow to be in.

14:02But I really have. And this is, this is the thing when you have that longtime offensive play calling head coach with a quarterback is they add layers to the offense. The good ones do. and I've been really a fan of every single year the Bengals add something to their offense some new feature of their offense some of us because they have to like last year was like oh we have no slot player so okay Gasicki your slot uh like you know like and then a couple years before that it's like we can't run the ball all right we're gonna run out of the gun now okay wow that worked okay so let's add on to this and this last year I think again because of what they have with the personnel they're doing a lot of interesting things with their tight ends as far as putting them in the backfield as like de facto fullbacks.

14:43The equivalent would be maybe, I don't know if this is a good or bad thing. Mike McCarthy Packers, early Packers, which are Michael Finley. Remember how he was always used in the backfield almost like as a fullback slash tight end. And I like that because it's a new, they're not going to go under center with Burrow. They're not going to do play action. We talk about this all over and over. All right. So what do we do? All right. So let's make other parts of our game because we're going to be in shotgun so much. How do we get a good run game out of that? How do we get play action out of that? And they're finding answers.

15:12And I think that's really interesting. And I think Chase Brown's got some stuff to him. More than I even kind of maybe gave credit for. I don't think he's an all-pro caliber running back. But he's nice for this offense. And I actually don't think the offensive line is as bad as most people do. They've sized that tackle. Their interior is not great. But it's not the Patriots last year. And I think a lot of times was when it fell apart is when offensive linemen got hurt. So it was already not great. but then someone got hurt and then it looked bad. So, you know, again, health, health, health. But I don't know.

15:43I think I just have seen this picture where I think this defense, I saw all these nice things about the offense. The defense is going to give them the playoffs in the AFC. I think they're, I think they're a nine and 18. Like this is just, they're capped out as a nine and 18. They're really like those 2010 saints, you know, with breeze and this great offense, 5 ,000 yards a year. Yeah. And they were seven to nine, seven to nine, seven to nine. I think there's a little spicier in this team. It has a little bit more to them. But to me, they're kind of capped out at 9-8, 8-9. They maybe can get to 10, but I don't know.

16:15I just don't see where the defense improvement is going to come from, even if I like Golden. It's not like Lou Anaruma was terrible. So I don't know. I've been really trying to marinate because I've been complimentary of their offense, but then I'm also like, they're going to give up 50 a game. It's not like their division got easier. Yeah. I wonder if at some point that defense is just like, we need to embrace the craziest, funkiest, like go find me the weird, because you got to play high variance. That's great. Turnovers and negative plays. It just feels unrealistic that on a down to down basis, it's going to be a sound defense that stops opposing offenses.

16:51So they have so many young guys. I mean, they've drafted 10 defensive players in the first three rounds since 2022. Like it's time for those guys to play and do something. So yeah, I'm not bullish on the defense, But I'm like, can you just keep them in some of these games where the offense can give you a chance? So we'll see if they're able to do that or not this year. All right. Nate doesn't have the Bengals. I got the Bengals. Let's take a break. Let's find out who. Now I'm really curious because he doesn't have the Bengals. Who does this man have on his list? We'll find out after the break.

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18:10He embarks on a dangerous journey in search of hope, starring Jacob Lorty, Josh Brolin, Margaret Qualley, Allison Janney, and Guy Pearce. The Dog Stars, only in theaters and IMAX August 28th. Get tickets now. All right, we're back here. Nate, I've got one more. So I've already done Bengals. I've already done Patriots you've done Patriots so who is your second team here? It's like really I would have done the Bengals but I figured you would have them so I wanted to make this fun. Alright God I can't believe these words are about to come out of my mouth. Can I guess? If you want to make a guess?

18:46Jaguars. Okay. No. Okay. Alright. Go ahead. I got one guess. No matter what these words are about to come out of my mouth I was debating between the Colts and the Jags because it's If any team I think is going to surprise someone, they'll come out of the AFC South just because of just how that division is. And also the Texans offensive line might just actually kneecap their entire season again. I do think the Texans are going to win the division. But I have the Colts. Wow. Yeah. I love it. I don't feel great about this. And it feels like it's a yearly tradition where I talk myself into some Colts optimism.

19:25Again, I have my garden. on Anthony Richardson Island. But I think it's just not going to be as bad as he was last year or as inaccurate, even if he's not going to be maybe the highs that I think he can have. If they go with him, I think they're going to announce it soon, their quarterback position. If they go with Daniel Jones, then I'm just like, delete this entire segment. But it's just what if with Anthony Richardson. I'm not as high on their O-line as maybe I think other people are. I think Tanner Bordellini at center is a project still, which is a little scary with a second year unproven center.

20:02Go Badgers, by the way. He's a Wisconsin guy. With Anthony Richardson, who isn't going to be changing plays and all that. That's a little scary for me. We've already seen it in the preseason against the Ravens. We have 400 breakdown videos of Anthony Richardson getting popped in the chin. We did. 400 videos. What a moment. So many videos. And not a single person pointed out that Tanner Bordellini could have changed the mic point. And no one would have been talking about that at all, ever, ever. So, but anyway, this is why I love you. Look, look how fired up you are. You know, sometimes I'm like, I like football, but you know, some of these people in the, in the space, they really like football.

20:40The guy is fired up weeks later over Tanner Bordellini in a preseason. See, I can't get to that level, Nate. This is why I love having you on. I tell you, I sit in my office and just stew and I'm just like, I don't talk to anyone. I just write my little notes in my Google doc and just make exclamation point. Make sure you emphasize this. You know, my wife doesn't want to hear about Mike points with Tanner Bordellini and the linebacker. That's one yard off the ball. And you're not going to change the point over there. But anyways, but so back to the Colts, the receiver room, I'm trying to figure out as well.

21:15But it's like these guys got to work. Downs is a good player. That's the one guy that I think is consistent. Alec Pierce, I know what his role is. He's a, he's a three and D guy. He can go deep. He can block and he's good going deep. He's probably one of the best deep ball guys in the league and can block guy. Got to get healthy. Michael Pittman underneath guy, 80 Mitchell's the wild card. He can still turn to something. He's just so inconsistent. So it's a high, but Tyler Warren, they already seem, I mean, obviously they like dropping him in the first round, really kind of getting open. They're really designing plays for him already, which is interesting.

21:45So, and I think the run game will be good, especially if they have Richardson back there. and I so it's like okay I can talk myself into that being a top 16 offense if it all works out if Richardson is just not a Titanic you know just not a catastrophe and then on defense I've actually talked myself more into their defense as I looked at it me too just brought that's where this is where all this comes from is that the Gus Bradley is gone Gus Bradley is gone and Gus Bradley was a net negative even if they didn't have personnel when you don't have personnel was just like we We talked about the Bengals change up the fricking look once in a while.

22:20You can't just run cover three. You don't have her old Thomas back there. Bobby Wagner's not walking through that door. You don't have cam chancellor in this D line. So I, you know, Lou and a room, I think again, is like a B level at the very least competent defense coordinator. They got size to stop the run, which I think matches Anna Rumo. Cause his stuff's all on the back end and making it funky, but it, but he needs size to kind of hold up on the interior. Boom. They got DeForest Buckner and Grover Stewart done. We're good there. I don't think layout to a lot too is going to be a star, but I think he's gonna be a nice pass rusher.

22:51Okay. We got a little bit more juice there. We got Traverius Ward who went through the season from hell last year at corner, still a good player when, you know, he just had a lot going on in his life last year. So now he's a good player and he looks like he was kind of, he's had some nice preseason moments. I was camp clips. So I don't know. I've talked myself into this. At least they're not going to be, I don't think great on either end, but I think they could be fine on either end. And I think that that division, they could steal some wins and maybe just sneak into the playoffs. So the Jags, I kept off because the offensive line, it's scaring me, even if I'm excited.

23:22And I think the defensive coordinator is a little scaring me too. Right now, there's a lot of lack of detail going on. That's like, Ooh, alarm bell, alarm bell going off right now. So Jags are scaring me, even if I do like a little bit of their stuff. But I've talked myself in the Colts the last couple of weeks, just some of the stuff looking at the roster. I don't think you're nuts. I mean, I was, like I said, I'm doing, I'm doing my offense and defensive rankings for the ringer this week. And I have the Colts really low, but as I was looking at it, I was like, it's not a horrible situation for a quarterback.

23:51You know, you have a running back, like you mentioned, you have different types of receiving options. Tyler Warren's a wild card. And even if you think the offensive line is like average, again, it's not the worst situation. Can you run the ball? Can you hit on some explosives? We know Anthony Richardson's average pass is going to go 17 yards downfield. So it's like the completion percentage doesn't have to be high. just hit on some of those. Just get over 50. Then I was looking at the defense too, and I thought this front's pretty good. I mean, when you look at it, it's not like amazing where you're like, oh my gosh, how are you going to stop them?