Making the Case for the NFC's Top Playoff Sleeper With Danny Heifetz

0:00Welcome to the brand new Ringer NFL show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia. This is a big day for us. We are switching things up this season. I will be with you every Monday through Friday, all season long to talk about the biggest stories happening around the NFL. It's going to be a lot of fun, you know, joined by my Ringer colleagues, other friends around the NFL. And the best part about it, you can knock these episodes out. You know, you're commuting to work, you're walking to get a coffee, you're walking to class, whatever people do. Now, I'm trying to sound like a human here. Whatever people do nowadays, you can listen to these episodes every day.

0:35So I'm thrilled to have with me for the first, the debut episode of this new Ringer NFL show, my friend, Danny Heifetz. How we doing, my friend?

0:46Danny Heifetz:I'm good, man. You just caught me walking to class like a totally normal human being. You know, that's what people do. Yeah, yeah. It's just great time to have me. I do appreciate it because I think I did the first ever show with you here at the Ringer. So I'm honored that you have me here today. Thank you. Yes, I like partnering with you for all my firsts, including when I ripped Josh McDaniels during that first appearance, Heifetz, and I was right about him. So don't you forget that. So today we're not going to talk about McDaniels. We're going to talk about the NFC, and we're going to talk about sneaky playoff teams.

1:16And so when we come back, we're going to talk about which teams that didn't make the playoffs last year can make it this year on the Ringer NFL Show. This episode is presented by American Eagle. Whether you're hanging out at home or headed out for a training session, American Eagle has you covered with a ton of new stuff. We're talking super comfy heavyweight hoodies and joggers that look and feel great. Sweat-wicking active shorts that are good to go anytime, anywhere. New move-free jeans made from a crazy comfy, real-looking denim. And their biggest underwear collection of the year with striped, solid, and print styles to fill your drawer.

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3:10All right, let's get to it. Hi, Fitz, you know the drill. This is quoted by everybody every year that every year, six new playoff teams in the NFL since they moved to this new format. On average, six new playoff teams, three from each conference. So the job for us is very simple this time around. We are going to try to identify who those three teams in the NFC are going to be that didn't make the playoffs last year, but are going to make it this year. You are the guest. You get first pick. Who is your first team? Let's see if we agree on any of these or if we're just calling each other dumb for a half an hour.

3:46Danny Heifetz:Well, I mean, you could call me dumb no matter what. But no, I mean, the first team I have in the playoffs that was not in last year, I have the San Francisco 49ers. And I guess that's the product of going first because that's kind of easy. They're actually the only, I think, non-playoff team betting odds wise that just are basically slotted like a playoff team. But it's just, the schedule is so easy for the Niners and we can dig into it. But between the schedule, a coaching staff that I think has become underrated. And honestly, I kind of think the free agency losses they had are a little overrated.

4:15Danny Heifetz:But overall, I just, this is a schedule that was the 28th hardest schedule. So what is that? The fifth or sixth worst hardest schedule last year. That's, they just have the easiest one in the entire league this year. I mean, the NFC South, the AFC South are on their schedule, which is the two weakest divisions in football. And like, maybe that's a boring answer, but that is usually how this goes is which team goes from playing really good teams to really bad teams. So I, the Niners are the easiest one in the entire exercise to me. What about you? All right. We're on the same page. We both got the Niners.

4:41Now let's dig into this a little further. Are we like, oh, you know, they're going to be a cute little 10 win team and sneak into the playoffs? Have you thought about or do you have them winning the NFC West? Do you think they're a Super Bowl contender? Because easiest schedule. You're right. I'm with you. Easiest schedule. Last year, they were the most injured team in the NFL. I know they're pretty injured right now, so it could happen again. But all the things you look at, like you said, when you're looking for this type of team, their special team stunk last year. All these things that don't necessarily carry over year to year, those are like all working in the 49ers favor.

5:15And so I think that's why the FanDuel odds do reflect that. I actually think they're going to win the division. I think they're going to be a legit like 11 win team and they're going to be heard from in the playoffs. Are you going that far? Are you just like, no, sneaky, cute little team that's going to get in there?

5:30Danny Heifetz:I do have the 49ers winning the division. but to be totally honest, it's the Rams are the other team that I think have there as, you know, obviously a division favorite for the NFC West. And if I'm being totally honest, if you told me Matt Stafford was going to play the whole season, I'd pick the Rams to win the division. And the fact that Matt Stafford is getting epidurals in his back and Jimmy Garoppolo might have to play. I'm like, yeah, then I would pick the Niners. So that is honestly the issue to me is I'm just read. Everything Sean McVay says about Matt Stafford makes me more nervous about his back.

5:56Danny Heifetz:He hasn't made me feel better at all. So that is what actually is pushing me toward the Niners. But no, I do think they're gonna have a good season because i mean man like if you just look at the niners schedule i know i mentioned the divisions but we're talking about the saints the spencer rattler the falcons with michael pennix and his first season starter panthers with bryce young even if he's better it's like the colts with either danny dimes or richardson the jags with lawrence which maybe they get better but that looks like six and two to me with the two divisions and then the other thing is the other basement nfc teams the niners get it's like the giants the bears but like the And then the random 17th game the Niners get is the Browns.

6:31Danny Heifetz:So if you just look at the quarterbacks that they're playing, it's literally half of the Niners schedule is just teams that are on the brink with either guys at the beginning or end of their careers. And that's assuming they play Stafford twice. They might get Jimmy G twice. But overall, I don't know about you. I know that, you know, Bill Simmons, our boss here, always says Kyle Shanahan's overrated. I think that's like the worst take he actually has on the NFL. I think Kyle Shanahan's been to four of the last six NFC championship games. He's every level of the great coach that like his reputation, but Robert Sala is back as the defensive coordinator in San Francisco.

7:02Danny Heifetz:This is super underrated. How are you on Sala? I think people besmirch him as head coach. I think he's super underrated as a defensive coordinator. Yeah, I like Sala, fellow bald man. You know, we tend to stick together. And so he keeps a nice clean shave like I did. No, I'm with you. He's a good defensive coach. He was a good defensive coach with the Jets. It all you saw what happened to their defense last year when he left. So I don't think they're going to be great. I mean, you look at the depth chart. It's not a good depth chart, but they've got some young defensive linemen. And to your point, it's the old formula.

7:31Very good offense, mediocre defense. That equals playoff team and contender. And, you know, you look at it, you look at a couple of years ago, like you said, with Kyle Shanahan and Brock Purdy, they're 12 and four with Purdy. They had the best offense in the NFL. And it's just like last year was the year from hell. Everything went wrong. I don't think they're going to be as good as they were two years ago, but they're going to be somewhere in between. And I think they're a playoff team.

7:56Danny Heifetz:I totally agree. And again, not to belabor the point, because this is the easiest team, but this is, you know, I know that Ayuk is hurt and Debo Samuel's gone, but they have Juwan Jennings and they have Ricky Parcell, I think are really good. I think people are going to yell at me when I say this. I think Christian McCaffrey's fully healthy and he's fine, which I think people forget how good he is. Okay. And then on top of it, it's like all the guys who left, I mean, you know, I know Talanoa Hufango went to Denver, but it's like they have Mustafa, like every player, they lost players, Traveris who were a cornerback.

8:22Danny Heifetz:They have a player who is younger and maybe actually, maybe a little better stepping up at each of the spots. I know they lost like 17 free agents, but it's not as much turnover as you think. It's actually kind of like renewal in a way. So I, and like, if we saw the Rams last year, sometimes those younger defenses come together faster than you think. So overall, I, yeah, I just, I'm betting on the staff and betting on talent. Like I think, and again, the schedule is so easy. So the Niners are the free space. All right. Niners. We both had the Niners. Now you're up again because you had Niners.

8:50I had Niners. Who is your, now it gets tricky after this. I feel like the Niners were a pretty obvious choice. And then after that, we could go in a number of different directions. So who is your next team? I feel weird about this one,

9:00Danny Heifetz:but I really thought about it and I actually go in with the Arizona Cardinals. I feel really weird. Wow, the hipsters have gotten to you. Okay, make the case. Yeah, I did, they did. They did, honestly. I'm being honest. The three NFC West teams, I really, I know I keep doubling down on that, but we just saw it last year at the NFC North. And I just think you look at the NFC West and they're playing the AFC South, the NFC South, like I just think they're going to beat up on them. You couldn't have put it better. Like, yeah, the hipsters got to be the Cardinals doing frisky stuff on offense and defense.

9:25Danny Heifetz:I think Paris Johnson Jr. is like a dark horse candidate being an all pro candidate left tackle one day. And then I just think the defense like the Cardinals again, no one thinks about the Cardinals. No one you Google Cardinals. The baseball team comes up. That's not true for any of the other 31 teams. But the secondary in Arizona is quietly like one of the better ones in the entire league. Like the Buddha Baker, Jalen Thompson at safety. And then you I mean, if if I always I always the name is so generic. Will Johnson, the cornerback that just got out of Michigan. If he's legit, and then in addition to the Garrett guy they got at nickel, it's like that's a very versatile secondary, in which case I think it makes the defensive line better.

10:02Danny Heifetz:I don't know. I do think they have a lot of stuff cooking in Arizona. But you're right. It's kind of like an indie band take. Yeah, it's one of those. Like everybody, oh, they do cool stuff. Oh, they do fun stuff and tricky stuff. It's like they're 12 and 22 in the last two years. Kyler Murray's been in the NFL for six seasons, and they've made the playoffs once. They're 36-45-1. I think they'll be okay. I don't think it's a crazy take. I think they're like a coin flip. They could get in if they get some injury lock or some turnover lock, but I'm not going to pick them. I don't see the case for a big upside with the Cardinals.

10:36I know you guys have talked about Marvin Harrison Jr. on the Ringer Fantasy Show. Are we feeling good about the biceps? That's the thing, right? He got jacked this offseason?

10:47Danny Heifetz:I think the, so yeah, Marvin Harrison Jr. added a bunch of muscle and he just looks larger. And I think that the optimistic case is, you know, bigger receivers, you know, they need an extra year to adjust. That's probably true. The flip side is you got to get used to the speed of the game to learn if you're not a speed player to necessarily like, how are you going to win with technique in a faster league? I don't like that he worked in his arms. I don't like that. I don't like that he worked on his biceps. You're a wide receiver. I don't know. I just, I don't like that. Yeah, you don't need the beach muscles.

11:16You know what? This is like back when I was a kid. This is still one of my favorite NFL conversations where I just remember listening to Sports Talk Radio and they're like, Donovan McNabb got too jacked this offseason. And you know, like your 14-year-old me is like, huh, is that a thing? I'm going to keep an eye on that when the Eagles play this weekend.

11:33Danny Heifetz:The last jacked quarterback was Will Levis. What does that say? Patrick Mullins is a beer guy. You know what I mean? Work the muscles you need. But yeah, the Cardinals overall, and I get it. I really do believe in the NFC West. I think the flip side is, do you have the Seahawks in? I do not. That was the other team I'm thinking about. I thought about him. But I just couldn't put Darnold in. Yeah, no, I'm with you there. Like I said, I don't think it's a crazy take. I'm not going to be on board with the... I feel like I know how every Cardinal season goes. Like in October, you're probably going to text me, you know, and you're going to be like, oh yeah, I called the Cardinals.

12:03And I'm like, get back to me in December. You know, they're going to be six and two. No, the call of duty. And there's going to be... Kyler is going to be, you know, an MVP candidate. And then we're going to get to Thanksgiving. Then we're going to get to Christmas and no one's going to care about the Cardinals anymore. That's how every season, they'll be eight and nine.

12:17Danny Heifetz:The meme with Arizona is Call of Duty comes out and Kyler gets terrible. But here's the thing. We haven't lived in a world where he's been fully healthy and the studying has been in his contract. So now that he contractually has to do the playbook stuff now and Battlefield came out earlier than usual. So maybe won't play as much Call of Duty. I don't know if you know what any of that means. But I do think for real, I do think Kyler said he's the fully healthiest they'll ever be after the ACL tear. I do think that matters. And again, I'm not saying the Cardinals is going to win the Super Bowl. I agree.

12:41Danny Heifetz:I think Kyler Simmons, Kyler Murray has 10 % of Ben Simmons in him to just really do the Philly thing here. Like a little bit, a little bit, like really talented, a little. But getting to the playoff, plenty of teams that cannot win the Super Bowl make the playoffs all the time. Yeah, no, it's true. All right, yeah, I'll accept it. Arizona Cardinals, I had you pegged for a different team, which I wonder if that'll be your third team. But let's take a break. We'll come back. I will give you my second team. For adults with Crohn's disease or ulcerative colitis symptoms, every choice matters. Tremphaya offers self-injection or intravenous infusion from the start.

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14:36All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show. Sheil Kapati here with Danny Heifetz. This one, like I'm embarrassed to say, I almost wish we ran out of time. I feel like my ancestors, my parent, my dad, my friends, my neighbors, everyone's going to be like, what are you doing, man? But I've got the Dallas Cowboys in the playoffs. Were they with their team or no?

14:57Danny Heifetz:The Flesh is weak. No, I don't have the Cowboys. You don't have them. Okay, here's my take. I'm watching so much first take. Yeah. Hit me. No, here's my theory is that for the first time in my life, the Cowboys are actually undervalued because everybody sees Jerry Jones being a ridiculous person, which he is. And they equate that to what's going to happen on the field. But I look at the team and I'm trying to keep it simple. Quarterback. You know, is the quarterback going to play pretty well? Is the passing game going to be pretty good? And what has happened in the past with this quarterback? with this quarterback, Dak Prescott, the Cowboys have been 76 and 46, 30 games over 500.

15:35And I'm talking regular season, so don't talk to me about the playoff stuff. 30 games over 500. When he started 12 games in a season, they've never had a losing record. And so I'm looking at that going, they're not great. I don't love them. They have flaws, but in this wide open NFC, can they win nine games? 10 games with that quarterback and CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens? And I say yes. Nine games, 10 games is exactly right.

15:59Danny Heifetz:Like, to your point, the Cowboys, they're just a worse version of the Bengals with way bigger branding. But the Cowboys, they are going to, I don't really disagree with anything you're saying. I think Dak and Joe Burrow actually have very similar styles of like old school Peyton Manning-esque, like we're going to do everything at the line and throw a ton. The difference to me is, I mean, CeeDee Lamb's great. George Pickens is probably not as good as Tee Higgins. The difference to me is who's going to be the left tackle for the Dallas Cowboys? Because Tyler Guyton, I mean, broke part of his leg again they were like good news not out the whole season i'm like that sounds like bad news number one two they cannot run the ball they're not going to be able to run they have javante williams they have miles sanders and jayden blue as the running backs this year with phil moffa like they're literally not even pretending that they're running they're going to be running game they're going to pass the ball like the bangles the difference is they the dallas cannot stop the run and they can't i don't like teams that can't stop the run and so they literally paid all this money they're going to pay michael parsons and capitulate they're going and they ended up paying one of their better defensive tackles this offseason.

16:57Danny Heifetz:So they are going to shell out all this money to lock down a team that could not stop the run last year. In addition, let's play a little game. How many Dallas cornerbacks can you name that are going to start for them this year? Deron Bland. Siobhan Revell. Is he healthy? No, he actually, he had reconstructive knee surgery last year in college. And then his father said he had a setback a month ago. That was plan B. plan A is Kyer Elam who again is a quarterback who is a first run pick on the Bills that the Bills couldn't even play and I'm like the Bills need cornerbacks too so this guy who couldn't play for a Super Bowl contender is going to start for Dallas so they have no real outside cornerbacks and then Bland is either going to have to move outside but he's not at nickel, it's like there's no run fits the whole defense is a mess so they're a fantasy football team just like Jerry Jones is a fantasy football manager so anyway, I'm disgusted by the Cowboys I don't want teams that can't stop the run can't really run the ball and just are going to get just beamed on the outside.

17:57Danny Heifetz:So yeah, maybe 9-7 or 9-8. I guess that was the record. But I'm not getting sucked in this year. All those things make me nervous. Yes, they cannot stop the run. They have an offensive tackle issue. There's no doubt about it. They have a cornerback issue. We think they're going to still have Micah Parsons on the team. So maybe he can just wreck some games. He's going to stay. I'm not factoring that. There's no chance Micah Parsons is traded. You know what's so interesting? You know what's so interesting? You just gave a great defense for why the Cowboys are not going to be a playoff team. If you're like, you know, I don't know if Mike McCarthy has children.

18:34Let's say you're a cousin of Mike McCarthy and you're like this guy. Like you just gave that whole defense and going from Mike McCarthy to Brian Schottenheimer didn't even come up. I love that. Well, he doesn't run the team. That's not even a factor.

18:45Danny Heifetz:He's a middle manager. It's like office space. It's like Jerry Jones just wants someone to, like he just needs a puppet. Shout out to Ben Baby, who works at ESPN, who pointed out to me that all Jerry Jones wants is to win another Super Bowl, but he wants to be Jimmy Johnson walking out in the locker room saying, how about them Cowboys? And so he's literally saying it. He said it out loud. He's like, yeah, it's a soap opera when nothing's going on. I got to kick up some stuff going on. Like, it's not a serious team. They are like a Lakers-esque operation. Masquerading's a big thing. This is all they have going on.