Most Disappointing Teams Through Week 3, With Dan Pizzuta

0:00Welcome to the Ringer NFL Show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia. Today, we're talking about the NFL's most disappointing teams through three weeks. And as someone who grew up, you know, in an Indian household and didn't go to medical school, this feels very natural to me. And we won't go down that rabbit hole. But I'm thrilled to welcome in my guest today, Dan Pizzuta. You can read his work in the independent site, Snaps and Stats. I've read him in the FTN Football Almanac for a long time. He's a great follow on Twitter. Dan, how do you feel about just, you know, crushing some teams who have disappointed us through three weeks?

0:36Dan Pizzuta:Absolutely. I usually do enjoy, you know, this team is fun and this is why, but going to the other side is always a nice time too. I'm bringing you into the dark side today. Maybe next time. Next time we'll do a more positive one. So let's take a quick break and then we'll come back and we will talk about the NFL's most disappointing teams. This is the Ringer NFL show presented by FanDuel and the NFL is officially back. So if you're going to be in it, be in it with FanDuel. They've got the goods, futures, live betting, SGPs, your way bets, all of it. The app's clean, it's fast. And yeah, when you win, you get paid instantly, which is nice because Sunday patience doesn't exist.

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3:11All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show. And Dan, I'm going to get us started because there is such a clear number one for me. And that is the 0-3 Houston Texans. I mean, I just feel so betrayed by this team. I feel like I got duped by this team coming into the season. I thought, all right, new offensive coordinator, give CJ Stroud some more control at the line of scrimmage, some changes on the O-line. It doesn't have to be great. You know, his rookie year wasn't great and he was still a really good quarterback. This is going to work. And now I've seen them for three weeks and this offense is an abomination.

3:47I mean, that Texans-Jaguars game last week, like I'm sure you do this too. You can't get to everything on Sunday. So on Monday, you catch up on the games that you missed. And I was like, did this team, did this offense practice last week? I mean, it was like, anytime they had a positive offensive play, I was almost shocked. It was just error after error after error. And that's really how it's been through three weeks here. You know, they have somehow managed to be worse this year than they were last year. Just when you look at any of the stats, they're last in the NFL in offensive success rate.

4:21I mean, that is they are worse than like the Titans, the Joe Flacco led Browns, you name it, the Giants who just benched their quarterback. All those teams have produced positive offensive plays at a higher rate than the Houston Texans. So where are you with this team? Is there any hope? Are you as disappointed as I am? Do you want to calm some of my concerns or do you want to just lean into them?

4:44Dan Pizzuta:Yeah, I'm probably somewhere in the middle. Definitely disappointed because we really thought this was going to be something different. at least some of the improvement in coaching was going to be better. And it just, it's turned out to be exactly the same. We kind of thought the one offensive coordinator change would just change everything. And it turns out bringing in offensive linemen that the worst offensive lines in the league last year did not want, is not the way to fix an offensive line. So I think you look at a lot of that. The communication is still an issue and defenses are starting to pick on that too, where right now per match quarters, they're third in the rate of Sims run against them and they're third in the rate of stunts run against them.

5:26Dan Pizzuta:So defenses, there's no other team in the top five of both. So opposing defenses are trying to make this offensive line do things and communicate. And that's been a problem for them going into last year. It's continued this year. Only 13 % of their drives have reached the red zone. That's the lowest in the league. Titans are next at 21%. It is a huge difference. So there is a lot of really disappointing things in this offense. I think they might not have a red zone touchdown. I don't know if that's true or I feel like they said that during the broadcast last week. I need to fact check that one.

5:57But I'm like, wait, they don't have a red zone touchdown all season long. All their scores have been explosive plays. And we saw that last week as well. So yeah, that's a good point with just kind of the simulated pressures, the stunts. It's like you don't, you know, you can mess with their offensive line without necessarily blitzing with six or seven guys. You can, you can rush for, they're not going to be able to sort out which four are coming. And we've just seen that over and over again. I mean, CJ Stroud, 25th in success rate, 28th in EPA per pass play. I swear, watching that game, I was like, is there a game plan to like lose yards on first and second down, run on third down, punt, and just kind of say, hey, can their defense keep it close in the fourth?

6:39that's honestly what it felt like. I'm like, is this a new innovative strategy by the Texans here?

6:43Dan Pizzuta:Yeah, it's one of those things. And again, like the thing last year was all the third and longs that they had to do. It's the same thing this year, eight and a half yards to go on average, 25 % conversion rate. It's putting a lot on CJ Stroud and he just has not had the infrastructure to be able to bail them out like you did in his rookie season, which is really kind of what they did also. It was a lot of CJ Stroud hero ball on third downs. And that's just has not been a sustainable strategy over the past two years. Yeah, worst run game in the NFL as well. Now, where are you? Because I know there will be people listening to this saying, all right, you know, here they go.

7:17They're just defending CJ Stroud. Like, I'm sick of it. This is the next Trevor Lawrence or Justin. You know, these quarterbacks that it's like, some people are just like, nope, this guy's actually good. He's in a bad situation. And then others are like, I don't want to hear it. If you're a good quarterback, you have to overcome a bad situation. So as a CJ Stroud guy, I'm getting a little nervous now. that this is a second year with a new offensive coordinator and that he's developing bad habits and that maybe I'm going to look bad with my no-no CJ Stroud is actually good take here. Where are you with that after a few games?

7:51Dan Pizzuta:No, I'd still hold on that. He's still a good quarterback doing good quarterback things. I think the situation has wear on him a little bit and he is kind of making some decisions that probably are not optimal for a quarterback, but I think there are still enough good CJ Stroud plays in there that if they can figure out, just kind of block somebody, I think we'll see more good over the next part of the season, hopefully. Yeah. All right. You convinced me. I'm not giving up on him. You know, I liked him coming into the season. It's only three games. I got to tell myself, just calm down. But yeah, this is as bad of a start offensively as you could have imagined for this Texans team.

8:31And then defensively, you know, They released Chauncey Gardner Johnson this week, which I can only imagine. He's just like the most annoying guy in the NFL. These teams cannot hold. They're like, all right, one year max. And a lot of them, they're like, we're not even doing a year with him. I mean, they are releasing him after three games. There was some reporting from ESPN that there was maybe a personality conflict behind the scenes, that he was rubbing teammates the wrong way, that he was finger pointing. So he started three games. Like, it's not like they benched him and are now like, okay, let's, we're moving on.

9:05Like he has been their starter. Derek Stingley Jr. has an oblique injury. I still think this is a very good defense, but like, is there a chance that this even gets a little bit worse now that they've got these issues defensively? Or do you still think that's going to be a good group?

9:20Dan Pizzuta:We'll see. I think it's still a good group. I think one of the things that has really stopped them this season, like they're 19th in defensive DVOA right now, which is surprising. but they're one of still the best teams in stopping teams from scoring. They just haven't had a lot of turnovers. They're 21st in turnovers per drive after they were sixth last year. So I would expect them to be able to create a little more kind of havoc defensively. But yeah, this is just a defense that hasn't been able to bail out the offense like it was all throughout last year. Yeah, and you worry about that with some teams when there's such a divide between, especially when it's a great defense and a horrible offense, then you got to watch the locker room stuff and is the whole team together and all, especially because it's not just this year.

10:02I mean, that was the case last year as well. So we'll see what it looks like. They've got the Titans this week, but then, Dan, they go at Baltimore, at Seattle, San Francisco at home, Denver at home. Like that is, you know, I'm not saying they can't win any of those games, but it's certainly not the easiest stretch there. So we'll see what it looks like for the Texans. But yeah, it is, it's tough. Now the three losses have come by a combined 13 points. So they're not getting blown out. Maybe some luck turns their way and they turn it around. But a tough, tough start for, in my opinion, the number one most disappointing team in the NFL.

10:37All right, let's take a break. We'll come back. I'm going to let you choose who else is on your most disappointing list. The Ringer NFL Show is brought to you by FanDuel. It's one of the biggest weeks in sports and FanDuel is turning it into a full-on celebration. Introducing FanDuel Boost Fest, where every day from September 25th to 28th brings you a 50 % profit boost on the biggest matchups in football, baseball, golf, and more. However you play, that 50 % profit boost is ready to go every single day during Boost Fest. Download the FanDuel app or head to fanduel.com slash ringer NFL to jump into Boost Fest, where the games are big and the boosts are bigger.

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12:13The result? Less time spent on operations, more time connecting brands with the moments and fandoms that matter most. To learn more, check out Accenture.com slash Spotify. All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show. Dan, who do you got? Who else belongs on this list below the Texans?

12:31Dan Pizzuta:I'm going to throw out the Las Vegas Raiders. And this is a team that I think if you look at what the DVOA projections were before the season, they were expected to be like 19th. Right now they're 30th. And I think also if you look at what they were doing week one, week one, they were an exciting team and it's kind of gone downhill from there. This is a team right now, the offensive line looks like a complete disaster. They cannot really pass block. They absolutely can't run block. We have Geno Smith kind of in a similar situation to what he was looking at in Seattle. Under pressure last week, 47 % of his dropbacks were under pressure while he was first in EPA per dropback from a clean pocket.

13:13Dan Pizzuta:So it was just one of those things where it's a hard thing for him to continue to be, to play like that, kind of like we talked about with CJ Stroud. And then when you look at what they're doing personnel-wise, Brock Bowers has been hurt, but this was supposed to be like a heavy 12 personnel team that hasn't been able to use those tight ends the way they were expected. So now it's a heavy 11 personnel team. I have Brock Bowers playing more in line than he was last year, and that's not really helpful for an offense. So they just don't really have an identity while Ashton Gentry doesn't have a lot of room to run.

13:44Dan Pizzuta:And then the defense isn't playing very well either. So for what this team could have been exciting, kind of frisky, it's been one of the worst teams in the league over the first three weeks. Are you convinced me not to give up my CJ Stroud stock? I'm going to convince you don't give up your Raiders stock. I don't think it's going to stay this bad. You know, I look at their first three weeks and I agree with a lot of what you said. specifically the offensive line stuff makes me very nervous because I don't know that there's a quick fix there for them. And that was a concern coming into the season.

14:16You were kind of hoping, Hey, maybe they'll just be okay. Competent give the offense a chance. It haven't gotten there, but you know, Gino was terrible two weeks ago against the chargers. There were plays to be made. That was an uncharacteristic game for Gino Smith there. And even last week against the commanders, the final score, it got out of hand. And there was a punt return for a touchdown. There was a big Debo Samuel kickoff return. There was a Jeremy McNichols run where he stopped after whatever, a four-yard gain, and all of a sudden they missed the tackle and he takes it to the house. Now, I'm not saying those are good things.

14:48I'm sure Pete Carroll's like, yeah, those things sucked. We can't be having that, but I don't think those are things that happen typically every single week. So I still look at this. One thing I like is that they have been able to produce a lot of explosive plays offensively. I think they're top four, top five at just explosive play rate. So that can make up, you know, you can have more bad plays if the good plays are not just eight yard completions, but they're 25 yard completions. And that's something that goes back to Geno Smith in Seattle as well as that he's going to be willing to push the ball downfield.

15:20I do think the Bowers injury is a big deal. You know, like week one, he looked awesome and he's played the last two weeks, but you're not watching him going. This is like one of the biggest playmakers in the NFL, regardless of any position. This is the best tight end in the NFL. And I think they've had a hard time kind of accounting for that. And they can't really run the ball. The run game has not been good. But I feel like if Bowers can get healthier, that there is still hope for this offense. So one and two, I'm like, all right, it's not terrible. They're one and two. They host the Bears Sunday afternoon.

15:55If they're two and two after four weeks, it's like, okay, that's kind of where you would expect the Raiders to be. No one expected them to win 11 or 12 games. It was like, can they be a frisky, you know, nine win team this season?

16:06Dan Pizzuta:Yeah, and I think it's the way these past two games have gone, the way they've lost and the fact that it is 30th in DVOA. It's not, you know, a one and two that's still like 19th that we might have expected. I think it's kind of the way they have been is kind of what makes me a little more disappointed in what they could have been, because especially there's just I would have expected a little more being able to change things up on offense, realizing something's not working, move the personnel around a little bit, have a little more dynamic of this run game, even if the offensive line can't really block.

16:38Dan Pizzuta:Like that's kind of what we expected Chip Kelly to be able to do. So the fact that things aren't working and they haven't really figured it out through two games and haven't really been very adaptable, that makes me a little more nervous than I would have been. I was really excited about what this team did in week one. Yeah. The Chip Kelly conversation is an interesting one because as someone who covered him when he was in Philadelphia, you know, when that came to an end, it was like Chip Kelly's out of ideas. Like his plan A was awesome. The offense look was a lot of fun. I'm going back to 2013 now, but by the time it got to 2015, it was like defenses know what's coming in all these games.

17:12And then he went to San Francisco and it was the same thing. And then he has this kind of college renaissance. And I thought the conversation around him coming back to the NFL was interesting. Like I felt like a lot of people were really bullish on, okay, this, you know, Chip Kelly 2.0, maybe even 3.0. I guess it would be coming back to the NFL, but I was kind of like, well, that would be a fun story. I hope that happens, but I kind of need to see that at the NFL level where you don't have the best players like you did last year at Ohio state. You know, it's easier to kind of maximize it when you have that kind of talent.

17:44And now you run into issues like this, where you're outmanned up front every single week. You don't have great wide receivers. What does it look like? And they're 30th in success rate on offense. I mean, I just ripped the Texans, you know, for being 32nd. The Raiders are 30th and that just measures how often are you producing a positive play on offense. So yeah, they're not the most talented unit, but to your point, if you believe in the offensive coordinator and you think Geno Smith is a competent quarterback, you should look better than you've looked so far. You know, it's not saying you should be a top 10 offense, but you should be like, all right, they're in that mediocre range here.

18:20And again, I still think there's a chance that they get there. I'm not giving up on them, but yeah, it has not been a great start for them. So defensively, I almost feel like this is fine with their talent. They came in. I was like, this is one of the worst depth charts in the NFL and they haven't looked great, but I don't think that's necessarily been the reason why they're one and two is their defense. I think you would almost sign up for this if you were the Raiders going into the season and being like, you know, You're going to be below average, but not a disaster. Okay, that sounds good with the players we have right now.

18:52So let's see what it looks like here going forward. Again, Raiders-Bears Sunday afternoon. All right, Dan, I'm going to make the case that there's actually another AFC West team that is more disappointing than the Las Vegas Raiders. Let's see if I can convince you or not. That is the Denver Broncos. Okay, because the Raiders, the expectations were sneaky wildcard team. The Broncos, on the other hand, I mean, Sean Payton, truly one of the greatest propaganda tours in NFL history this summer. I couldn't check my timeline or read an article or listen to a podcast with someone in August without someone telling me, hey, Sean Payton just told me he loves his team.

19:33His team's going to the Super Bowl. He told me Bo Nix is just like the greatest quarterback ever. You and me, we might be the only people doing football content who Sean Payton did not call to just tell. you know, and maybe he did call you. I don't know, but he didn't call me to just brag about his team. So you have a summer like that and now you're one and two and sure they could have won that Colts game. They could be two and one, but does anything about them look like a team that's making the leap from again, good team to actual Superbowl contender? I don't think so. So I've actually got the Broncos as a more disappointing team through three weeks than the Raiders.

20:09Where are you with Denver?

20:11Dan Pizzuta:Yeah, so they're kind of where I expected them to be. But if there is a disappointment, it probably does come from the just repeated remarks from Sean Payton. So if there's something we should be disappointed about is how much that was reported. Because I just don't think, even while it was happening, I didn't really think it matched with reality. And you kind of see what this offense is. It's a lot of the same of what it was last year. Bo Nix has the lowest pressure rate, but one of the worst quarterbacks when he's been pressured. It's still kind of inconsistent when he does still have some of those open deep shots.

20:46Dan Pizzuta:It's a lot of screens, throws behind the line of scrimmage to keep him safe. And then the deep shots when they're open. And that's kind of an inconsistent way to play offense. And that's what it was for most of last year. The big difference, again, this year is the defense is not as good. And I think if there's a disappointing part, like a lot of people were expecting this to continue to be the best defense in the league, but we know it's very hard for defenses to be that good year over year. So they're 14th or they're yeah, 14th in DVOA right now. You know, you can throw on Patrick Sertan a little bit.

21:19Dan Pizzuta:He's only 40th in adjusted yards allowed per coverage snap when he was easily first last year. So it's just kind of one of those things where if that's not as good and the offense is still okay, that's not a great team. And I think like that is one of the biggest things where I think we didn't quite, you know, count in how big that drop-off on defense potentially could have been at least, you know, early in the season. And there's not enough on the offensive side to make up for it. Yeah, those were the two paths. It was either this offense is going to make a leap from like solid, mediocre offense to really good offense.