MVP Tiers: The Long Shots, Sleepers, and Favorites After Week 6

0:00Diante Lee:Welcome to the Ringer NFL Show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia. It's time for a little MVP check-in. Now, some people will tell you it's too early to talk MVP, and those people would be wrong. I mean, we're a third of the way through the season. Football's supposed to be fun. Everyone relax. We can talk about MVP. So this is a predictable award. MVP goes to quarterbacks on the one or the two seed who put up big stats. That's it. That's the qualification. So I've got three tiers here. Tier three, the long shots. These are guys with odds at plus 3 ,000 or higher. Tier two, you have my attention. These are guys with odds at plus 1 ,000 or higher.

0:38Diante Lee:And tier one, the favorites. These are guys with odds below plus 1 ,000. So my guest today is the Ringers, Deontay Lee. We talk about who we like, lay out the case for a bunch of the candidates. And Deontay just poured cold water on a popular pick right now. That was just incredible. Incredible take from him. So really fun conversation with Deontay. We'll get to it after the break on the Ringer NFL Show. This is the Ringer NFL Show presented by FanDuel. And if you're betting on the NFL, FanDuel is the place to do it. They've got everything. same game parlays, quick bets for when you want to jump in live, and your way so you can set your own lines.

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3:12Diante Lee:All right, we're back here with Deontay Lee, MVP tiers. Deontay, you wrote about MVP candidates for the ringer like a week ago. And since then, I feel like I'm looking at some of these names and they've already, the odd stuff has already changed, which is a good reminder of how fluid this stuff is early in the season. 100%. And I think that I noted it in the article that I wrote that like some of the usual suspects, right you're Patrick Mahomes you start off the year a little shaky you think about Lamar Jackson being hurt in the rough start for Baltimore's year it's usually pretty easy to put your thumb on the scale and say all right the guys that we think of as top five quarterbacks they'll be top five in odds and because we've had this kind of rickety start across the league and there's a lot of parity across the league I think that the odds are a little bit more even with some of the more unconventional candidates right and that makes for an interesting conversation when you're trying a handicap who actually will have a shot to win this award come on January and February.

4:08Diante Lee:A good setup for me for the first tier here, Deontay, the long shots. These are guys who are plus 3 ,000 or higher. And there are a couple of guys in this tier I wanted to talk about. Dak Prescott is plus 5 ,000 to win MVP. I actually think there's a strong case that he's flat out been maybe the best quarterback in the NFL this season. Like I, that doesn't feel like a hot take to me. Statistically, he's third in EPA per pass play. Now a bunch of guys are bunched there at the top, but still he's right there with all of them. He's been without CD lamb. He's been without multiple offensive linemen.

4:46Diante Lee:The issue for Dak is going to be, can they get enough wins? You know, they're, they're two, three and one here right now. They have the eighth hardest schedule. So you have to be able to convince yourself that there's a scenario where they can win the NFC East. Now, maybe that's not the craziest scenario when you look at some of the other teams in that division and how they're performing. But Deontay, the reason I liked him the most is because for some of these guys we're going to talk about, there's a conversation about like, is it them? Is it the scheme? Is it the supporting cast? Like if the Cowboys win the NFC East and Dak continues on this pace statistically, no one's given Brian Schottenheimer credit.

5:23Diante Lee:You know, no one's saying, oh, anyone could do that in that offense. They're going to be like Dak Prescott's playing amazing football right now. So I thought plus 5 ,000 was a pretty high number for him. I like him in this long shots category. I do too. I think that plus 5 ,000, I'm probably just more of a reflection of what you laid out, right? Like he's ultimately not going to meet the most important criteria, which is that you kind of have to win 70 % of your games as a quarterback. If you want to be considered for MVP, they're probably not going to be an 11 and six, 12 and five level team, right?

5:52They're probably going to be scratching around eight, eight and one, right? Seven, nine and one, nine, seven and one this year. But when you look at just like some of the key metrics for what is the quarterback doing to lift the level of his offense? He's been excellent when he's been pressured. He's been excellent. You know, one of my favorite things to look at is a quarterback success rate on throws of third and four plus. Right. That means defense knows passing down. They're going to give you their most exotic looks. They're going to try to take away your best receiver. They're going to load guys up on the line of scrimmage and bail them out.

6:22Right. There's going to be a lot on your plate as a quarterback. the fact that he's been able to do that from the pocket, right? Like we'll get to guys like Baker Mayfield, who might be doing something a little bit more unsustainable with the scrambling and all that. But with Dak, you show up, whether it's on red zone, if you're watching from snap one to the end of the game, you know, every time there's a key passing situation, he's making the right decision with the football. He's basically going to get George Pickens over$20 million per year on his next deal. If the season keeps up and he's doing this without his best receiver, right?

6:50Like so much of this, I think has just been centered around, at least with Dallas, his specific impact on a down-to-down basis, and the fact that he can get them out of any hole that this team has been digging itself in, both on and off the field, when you consider the defensive struggles they've had because of how they've built this roster.

7:07Diante Lee:Yeah, when CeeDee comes back, I mean, they're already a tough offense to deal with, but when CeeDee Lamb comes back, and now you have Lamb, Pickens, offensive line gets healthier, I mean, they are going to be a tough team to deal with. Their defense stinks, which we know, but he's going to be able to put up a lot of statistics It just depends on the number that I was thinking as you were talking, like, man, quarterback discourse, it's not perfect, but it has come a long way from quarterback wins to now like, Hey, you can isolate guys performance on third and long under pressure, these types of things.

7:40Diante Lee:So we're not perfect, but come on, it is getting better from at least when I was a kid there. All right. Other guy in this category, Deontay, I wanted to talk about Sam Darnold. I can't believe I'm saying it either, but statistically first in EPA per pass play, third in success rate. He's made some high degree of difficulty throws. I thought last week was maybe the first time where I'm like, oh, okay. These guys are wide open. Kubiak scheming up some wide open stuff for him. But there's been other games this season where you're like, no, Darnold is making tough throws in tough spots here. So he's got that going for him.

8:13Diante Lee:The statistical foundation, the Seahawks are four and two tied for first place in the NFC West. They've got a chance to win that division, be a one or a two seed. And while I don't feel great about it, there is a profile here that if he's statistically in the nerd stats, you know, top five and they're a one or a two seed, he's definitely going to be in the conversation. I mean, he would have to be right. Like I think in the, in the piece I wrote, I made the comparison this year to what Brock Purdy was in 2023. And the thing that Darnold has that's working in his favor that worked against Purdy is he doesn't have a Christian McCaffrey in the backfield that's going to be taking the credit away from him and what he's doing for this offense.

8:52Or a Kyle Shanahan. Exactly. There's going to be a lot more narrative thrust behind Darnold if Seattle continues to win, because there's not all these different ways that the credit can be divvied up. And I think that when I think of Purdy in 2023, it's not necessarily that he's being the most creative passer, right? And making that comparison to Darnold. It's the fact that when the deep dig is called, he's going to throw it i think that the explosion of jackson smith and jigba not just as a slot but a guy that can at times take the top off of coverage has really opened things up for darn and you can just see that confidence growing week over week right like i can take these chances to these receivers on third down in the red zone i can get the water aj barner and he can go get open and create yards after the catch i just think right now we kind of have to treat him as wild as it may be and i know that we had a lot of these conversations last year we've only got to treat but he's just a regular good quarterback right now.

9:44Or he's playing at the level of a regular, consistently good quarterback in the NFL. And if Seattle continues to win, if they mess around and win the NFC West, his odds are going to continue to improve week over week in that respect.

9:58Diante Lee:I can't believe how much of my life, Deontay, has been spent talking about Sam Darnold the last two years. Can you imagine, right? Life throws you some curveballs, man. That's one of them for me. Sam Darnold. I thought that Monday night after the seeing ghost game would have been it, right? for most quarterbacks, that's the book on you. And this guy is, you know, stacked up to back-to-back, really strong starts to his season, which has been, you know, a nice development. I'm glad you brought up the chemistry with JSN. They feel like one of those tandem sets, like, oh, they've been playing together for like 12 years and, you know, like Phillip Rivers and Keenan Allen or Peyton Manning and Marvin Harris.

10:32Diante Lee:I'm not saying it's like quite at that level, but when you watch them, it's just like, it's a surprise when he targets JSN and it's not a completion. It just feels like every time he goes his way, something good happens for the Seahawks. All right. Those are the guys who are in the long shot category. Odds of plus 3 ,000 or higher. So that's tier three. Tier two, you have my attention. Odds of plus 1 ,000 or better. I've got three guys in this tier. Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, and Drake May. And if I'm being honest here, Deontay, Drake May might be the best bet on the board right now. and you were all over it last time we potted.

11:11Diante Lee:Was it after the Bills game? It was after that Sunday night game. It was, okay. But you were already dropping that. And then he has another great game last week against the Saints. And now if you look at it, fourth in EPA per pass play, first in success rate. So he has the numbers. I don't think it's the narrative thing we mentioned with Dak. Like no one's going to argue, oh, come on, Drake May's a product of Josh McDaniels and Kayshaun Booty. No one's making that argument. And the internet, you know, you can find any argument. You're not going to find that argument anywhere. So he's the guy making it go.

11:43Diante Lee:Their run game has been terrible. And really, you know, if you plug in a different quarterback into that system, it's not going to look as good. So passes the eye test, passes the film test, passes the stats, third test, passes the narrative test. And they're four and two right now. They've got the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL when you look at the betting market. So I'm not telling you they're definitely going to finish in first place and win the AFC East, but they have a chance. And so I think Drake May is probably like the best sleepery guy on the board here. I think so. Again, I mean, a lot of this is going to come down to your faith in the rest of the supporting cast, right?

12:21Like, are they going to actually be competitive in the AFC East come seasons in? I mean, hey, based off of Monday night's result where, you know, Atlanta was running all over Buffalo, Maybe that ends up being a little bit more interesting down the stretch than we initially would have thought at the open of the season. When we think about Drake May, I think the biggest story over the last three or so weeks has been when the turnovers aren't happening, we don't have to qualify the level of play we're seeing. This is not a matter of, hey, you know, they just scraped by. Drake May had a bad interception in the first half or he had like this oblivious, you know, play in the pocket where he didn't feel pressure, fumbled the ball.

12:56now that some of that's being separated from what's going on with new England and we can just focus on the decisions he's making how he's throwing the football how he's handling pressure I think we're noticing a how much is on his plate actually on a down-to-down basis so much of new England's offense right now is just Drake May whether you're scrambling whether you're playing from the pocket whether you're checking us out of a bad call I need you to do all the heavy lifting for us and the fact that a guy in his second year has had the capacity to do that without a number one receiver with running backs that have fumbling and pass protection issues all year long an offensive line that I don't think the highest of not that it's the league worst but I would say probably about average-ish in a defense that's been dealing with injuries and these up and down performances he has stayed steady and he has been there for the team when they need him in fourth quarters in second halves I do think from that surprise element if we're talking about guys that you wouldn't have necessarily dropped in these buckets to start the year Drake may of this list of guys, maybe outside of Jordan Love, which I think we could have an interesting conversation about, is the guy I think in this group that I would probably feel strongest on if I was trying to pick a guy with these odds that I think could actually be in the conversation come years in.

14:03Diante Lee:Yeah, I'm with you. The other guys here, you mentioned Love. He's one. Herbert, you know, if you wanted to throw Goff or Stafford or even Daniel Jones in there, you could. But let's talk about Love because he's one of those where he's got the profile. He's plus 1 ,800. he's top five in all the nerd stats. They're three, one in one. He's completing 70 % of his passes, which I don't think any of us ever expected at Jordan Lava to complete 70 % of his passes to me, just watching it. I still haven't watched it and been like Jordan loves on fire. He is the person making this thing go. I felt more like Lafleur is a great offensive coach.

14:44Diante Lee:He's executing the offense. He's not making mistakes. He's making, you know, some plays each week where you're like, okay, That was nice, but it's not to the level of even a Drake May. So he's one like I've got my eye on him because he has that upside. And he's had those games before where you watch it and go, all right, that is high level quarterback play. I don't feel like I'm seeing that as consistently this year. So he doesn't necessarily pass my eye test, but that doesn't mean that he could change my mind over the next 12 weeks. Where are you with Jordan Love right now? I'm trying to divorce myself of some of those preconceptions, especially when we start talking about guys like Daniel Jones.

15:21We talked about Sam Darnold. We're going to get to Baker Mayfield, right? Jared Goff. Some of these guys on this list that we have feelings about as quarterbacks and are producing maybe at a level where they should be considered. If you can take away, you know, what your preconceived notions are of these guys. I think that he's in that boat for me. I do think Green Bay is going to win so often just because of how they scheme things up. they do take big chances down the field and Jordan Love is willing to throw them they've been pretty efficient in the run game they force turnovers on defense maybe not to the level this year as they did um in 2024 but you know that they're going to play high variance football and the variance seems to just land in their favor more often than not because they are aggressive but on a down down basis when you're comparing them to a Dak Prescott who is just hyper efficient when we're comparing them to a Josh Allen you know more more often than not who's hyper efficient on early downs on third downs, even to a guy like Matthew Stafford, who hasn't been turning the ball over and has been performing really well when he's under pressure.

16:19Jordan Love compares well statistically. It just doesn't always feel the same. I think when you're actually watching him play, this is probably the one guy on this list that we're just going to need more time with. I think for me to get comfortable with, then we start talking about guys who can actually win this award.

16:34Diante Lee:Yeah, I think that's right. Like he had a third down play last week towards the end of that game where, you know, he rolls to his left and makes it like those types of plays. They are in there. We've seen them before. It feels like he hasn't had to produce as many of them this year. But again, that doesn't mean that like we could see him go on a heater. We've seen him do that in the second half of the season before. So you're, I like the way you laid it out. Then the statistical profile, the wins, he's going to be in the conversation. The eye test, maybe not quite there. Now, Herbert, you know, the numbers have to get better.

17:04Diante Lee:He's been in a tough spot with that O-line, but he has had like some throws at the end of these games that have been unbelievable. So I don't want to count them out yet. You know, if they get help, they get Joe Alt back and they're winning. They would have to win the AFC West, I think. But he's capable of putting up big numbers, even though you haven't seen those just yet here. Jared Goff, I just feel like it's never going to, he's not going to get the credit. Unfortunately, I just don't see it happening for him. we've got the first half of his career in LA where every again, preconceptions matter so much reputation matters so much.

17:38He was Sean McVay's baby at that time. Right. And you filter all of that for all of those performances through that lens. Then the first few years in Detroit, he's been Johnson's kid, right? Like this is a Ben Johnson thing. This isn't a Jared Goff thing. And I think there are a lot of Sundays where I feel like that's not fair to him because he is asked to make ambitious throws at times. He is asked to fix things when this offense has issues at times. The issue is he's surrounded by all this speed. You know, they have good play calling and you know, similar to his head coach, they've been so good over this stretch.

18:13They're not going to be rewarded for it. Unfortunately, I don't think Dan Campbell's ever going to win coach of the year, even though he deserves it. And I don't think Jared Goff is ever going to win MVP, even though Detroit's had the number one offense in terms of passing EPA and success rate basically over the last three to four years. And he's playing better football right now, I would argue, at least statistically than any other time in his career. Unfortunately, people are just going to look at the name on the back of the jersey and say, no, that's not an MVP of the NFL, unfortunately.

18:42Diante Lee:You laid it out well. I think that's right. Maybe it's unfair. Maybe we do a show in a month and we're like, hey, he should be in this conversation because the numbers are going to be there. The wins are going to be there. but I'm with you there on golf Stafford. The numbers actually aren't great. And I would argue that the Rams are a Superbowl contender, but you are seeing some signs of decline. And it's almost like Sean McVay is doing a great job. And Puka Naku has been awesome, but I don't have him quite there in that tier. I can't believe we're having a conversation about Daniel Jones, but I mean, they have the best record in the AFC.

19:13Diante Lee:He passes all the statistical benchmarks here. Now they have a much tougher schedule going forward. So I don't think we need to spend time on Daniel Jones, but I feel like he deserves a mention here just because if you're saying the first six weeks, the profile fits, but I don't have him quite there just yet. All right, let's take a break. We come back. Let's get to the favorites. The ringer NFL show is brought to you by FanDuel. The FanDuel Sportsbook app is your home for all your favorite NFL bets from yards to touchdowns to who will win with FanDuel. Any play can be the play of the game. And when the Steelers and Bengals play Thursday night, FanDuel is giving all customers a 50 % PBT.

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21:08Diante Lee:All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show. The favorites here, Deontay. Patrick Mahomes is plus 200. Josh Allen is plus 300 and Baker Mayfield is plus 350. Who from that? I have to stop you right there. That's insane to me. The number is insane. Okay. To me, the odds on that is I I'm having such a hard time wrapping my head around this because there's of all the guys that we've talked about, if there is one player and this is, it's rich for me because I feel like I'm the guy who has been arguing most ardently on ringer NFL. You have been, no doubt. You have the belt. Baker Mayfield is a better quarterback than he gets credit for.

21:46And then the one year where he's legitimately being considered for an MVP, I'm the guy that's like, hey, man, we got to pump the brakes and we've got to recognize what is and what isn't sustainable. And maybe things start to even out as guys get healthy, right? Tristan Wurfs' impact is already being felt for this football team, both in the run game and in the passing game. If you had Gadecki, if Cody Mock was not out for the year, maybe we wouldn't even be having this conversation because everything in structure would be just fine. But I'm sorry, man. I can't watch this guy be dead to rights two to three times every single week and squirt out and turn that into a 10 to 12 yard scramble that's gonna move the chains and believe that that's going to stay that way throughout the course of the season.

22:29I don't believe it. I'm sorry. Like, I struggle with that. I admit that maybe I'm just wrong. But when I hear like plus 350 on odds, especially next to the names that we're discussing, Patrick Mahomes, who was playing better than he's ever played before, in my opinion, and Josh Allen, who is as steady as it gets in the NFL. I just don't see Baker Mayfield in that conversation, even though he has 100 % been the reason why Tampa Bay is winning games. He's just not at that level to me.

22:57Diante Lee:So he's winning the narrative, I think, the first six weeks. You can't tell the story of the first six weeks of the NFL season. Baker Mayfield's name has to come up within the first few sentences of that. I think people like the story that he bounced around. They've known him for a long time since college. It's something different. You know, we see this with MVPs in every sport. You kind of get tired of some guys and then a new guy emerges or someone who's been around is playing really well. So the case for Mayfield would be that, like you said, maybe he regresses in some of those areas. He's not, you know, ducking a sack and scrambling for 12 yards and bumping a defender and getting And everybody fired.

23:36Diante Lee:However, we haven't seen him with a full group yet with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin and Emeka Agbuka all on the field together. So like statistically, the numbers could actually get better in the second half of the season. So I love that you were, you were fired up. I'm like, wait a minute. He's the Mayfield guy. Why is he going against him here? So, okay. You think that's too high. I would tend to agree that the, this is probably going to be the highest his odds will be all season long. And that's taking nothing away from him. We just, we just said he's the spin, the story of the first six weeks, just the sustainability of some of these things outside of structure, I think, um, or, or maybe the reason to ding him a little bit.