NFC and AFC Playoff Pictures Get a Shake-Up After a Wild Week 12!

0:00Diante Lee:Welcome to the Ringer NFL Show. I'm your host, Sheil Kapadia. A highly entertaining Week 12 Chiefs save their season with a win over the Colts. The Cowboys come back to beat the Eagles. Lions, Bears, Jaguars all survive. So where do things stand with the NFC and AFC playoff pictures and what's going to change in the next six weeks? That's what we're talking about today. Our guest is my friend, the Ringer's own, Diante Lee. Let's take a break. and come back with Deontay. This is the Ringer NFL show presented by FanDuel, the best place to bet the NFL all season long. FanDuel's got it all. Same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live and your way so you can build the bet that fits your play.

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2:30Diante Lee:All right, we are back on the Ringer NFL show with Deontay Lee. We're going to go over the playoff picture, NFC first, then AFC, talk about what's going to change, what's real, what's not. But Deontay, we just got finished watching Sunday Night Football. Let me start with this. I think the Rams are the only trustworthy team in the NFL. I'm serious. They're the only team that I'm sure is good. And by that, I mean, well coached on both sides of the ball and quarterback that I trust. If those are your only qualifications after week 12 for a team is good. I don't know that there's another team in the NFL that I can actually say that about.

3:06I mean, I can't imagine having a more jarring experience if you're a casual NFL fan. If you're watching Eagles Cowboys and watching the Eagles stumble over themselves in the second half, and then you flip over to Sunday night football and within a quarter and a half, the Rams are basically just totally dispatched of another playoff quality team. Right. So I'm right there with you as I was watching. I think it might've been the second touchdown of Devontae Adams. I was like, man, this is just what a Superbowl level team looks like. When they have food in front of them, they don't play with their food.

3:36March right up and down the field. Defense looks faster than the offense. They look like they have every bit of their opponent's tendency scouted out. And they just marched up and down the field to the point where at the, At halftime, Bucs head coach Todd Bowles was basically lost for answers. It's like, I mean, I think we need to run the ball because we can't give their offense the ball back. We also just aren't executing. I don't have a play call that's going to fix this. That's the effect of an elite team, and the Rams are definitely playing like the most elite team in the NFL right now.

4:03Diante Lee:So the Rams are the one seed in the NFC. You have the Eagles at two. You got the Bears at three. You have the Bucs at four. and then your wildcard teams are the Seahawks, the Packers, and the 49ers. So Deontay, despite the Lions' win today over the Giants, they would be out of the playoffs if the playoffs started today. They're the eighth seed at seven and four. Panthers play Monday night. They're six and five. And then this Cowboys team, 10th seed right now, Deontay, five, five, and one. I'm not trying to go all first take or, you know, whatever you want and be like, we have to lead with the Cowboys.

4:45Diante Lee:But I actually think the Cowboys have a real shot of going on a run and sneaking in. It's not the most likely outcome. They're plus 520. I'm not bold enough to predict it, but they would have to go like five and one down the stretch. And just that game today against the Eagles where they get off to the Rocky star, you referenced it. They come back. That offense is just like most weeks. That's just going to be tough to deal with those two wide receivers who are now, you If they're healthy with Dak Prescott, with the offensive line, with the stuff they scheme up in the run game. So I was looking at this.

5:17Diante Lee:I think they probably have to finish like five and one down the stretch and they've got the Chiefs on Thanksgiving and then they're at the Lions. So those are two tough games. After that, Vikings, Chargers, at Washington, at the Giants. So I actually think if they can beat the Chiefs or the Lions the next two weeks, go one and one and then win their final four games. They're 10, six and one, and they're getting in. Is that crazy? I know it's far-fetched, but what does your heart tell you is possible with this Cowboys team? I mean, I'm right there with you. I was joking right before we got on the show that I've been in every playoff simulator, tapping away at games teams can win and lose and how that's going to shape the rest of the playoff race.

6:02And I'm right there with you. I've kind of had it laid out the exact same way where Dallas can split these two games up against Detroit and Kansas City. And if they went out the rest of the way, they do need help, right? Like they're going to need San Francisco to kind of nosedive, right? And I think that that's a possibility just given how hurt this defense has been. And then they really need the NFC North to just like totally beat up on each other. Detroit plays Chicago twice. Chicago still got to play Green Bay again. They need those games to just be a wild smattering of results, right? And no one team runs away with it.

6:33So that way they're all kind of jostling with each other to either win the division or not make the playoffs at all. That would be the best pathway. I do think though, almost more interesting for me with Dallas is that they can play spoiler for Kansas city and Detroit. I think I'm less invested in whether or not the Cowboys can make the playoffs and these will be greater conversations to have in the off season about their roster building and kind of trying to tee everything up more for 2026 than this year, but at least for 2025, they can 100 % ruin Kansas City shot to get back in the AFC playoff race.

7:04And they can have a large influence on what can happen in the NFC North that they're able to beat Detroit. I don't have them as a playoff team, but I do think they're one of the teams that's on the outside looking in that can have the most outsized impact on the final 14 that we get in the tournament come January.

7:19Diante Lee:Yeah, the NFC North is the most interesting aspect to this because right now you look at the standings and you say the Chicago Bears are eight and three. And then I go to FanDuel and I look at it and I say, the Bears have worse odds than the Lions and Packers right now just to get into the playoffs. So basically the way it's set up is like this. Of the following teams, Bears, Packers, Lions, 49ers, and we'll throw the Cowboys in there in case you think the Cowboys can get in. Only three of those teams are going to get in. So whoever wins the NFC North and then two wildcard teams. That's assuming Rams win the NFC West.

7:58Diante Lee:Seahawks are a wildcard team. Those teams, you know, those things seem pretty sure at this point. So again, Bears, Packers, Lions, 49ers, and Cowboys, only three can get in. And Deontay, I was getting ready for the pod and I'm going, well, no, this, no, I think this, well, no, if I, I couldn't decide. Who do you got? Who do you have from that group? If I told you three of those teams are getting in, which are the three you would pick right now? I think right now, I think right now Chicago ends up being the odd team out actually, in spite of being the division leader at the moment, because you would be, you would have to make an argument that Chicago is going to handle the games they're supposed to handle against the Browns.

8:40you'd have to pick them to beat the 49ers and then from there you would have to feel very strongly that they can beat philadelphia green bay one out of these two teams one out of the two times they play and detroit to end the season now if detroit goes on a heater right and they get to week 18 and they don't have anything to play for because they've wrapped up the division maybe chicago can get a backdoor sneak in that way but they you would still need help if you're the bears i think if you're san francisco you look at their upcoming schedule if they win tomorrow night against the Panthers, they're kind of sitting pretty, even though I don't think they're actually a good team.

9:13Because then you have Cleveland, you have Tennessee, you can probably beat both of those teams without necessarily needing to play your A game. And then you should be feeling like there's really nothing that can go wrong for them unless there's just like some disaster scenario where a bunch of other tie breaks work out or teams stack up enough wins to where they end up being the odd team out. I think they're going to be a 10 and 17 that gets into the playoffs. So I would say that San Francisco would be with Chicago, those two teams being kind of on the fringe, I think I'll be leaning a little bit more San Francisco and Detroit and Green Bay filling up the rest of the NFC wildcard.

9:44Diante Lee:All right. I think the Bears are the team that best represents the 2025 NFL season. Deontay, because I was thinking about this. You, you Biden at this point, we've done many pods together. You know, my beats, the stuff I referenced and all those things would tell you, do not trust the Chicago Bears. Okay. They are six and one in one score games. They've got a minus three point differential, which if you look at it the last 10 years, There's only been two times a team had eight or more wins through week 12 and had a negative point differential. The other was the 2020 Browns. So they are not as good as their record says.

10:18Diante Lee:Yet I look at this and I say, if the bears were on a neutral field against one of these other NFC teams in the coming weeks, do I really think they're frauds and that they can't win? And the answer is no. I think they could win because I think they're going to, their run game is going to be good. I think they can scheme up explosives. I know they're just feasting on turnovers on defense. I don't really believe in their defense, but I look at all those things and I'm like, these other, all these teams are so flawed this year. Like if this was another year, if this were even last year where you had the Eagles playing the way they were playing, where you had the lions playing the way they were, but even the Packers last year, I would have been like, no, this bears team, they're frogs.

10:57Diante Lee:I would be coming on here saying, get them out of here. They're not making it. I just don't feel that in my heart this year. Like you could tell me over the next six weeks, they're bet they play better than some of those teams and they beat some of those teams. So while the resume is not what I typically like from a division winner or a playoff team, I actually am not going so far as to say, like, I'm really, they're kind of growing on me. Honestly, I watch them every week and I see them do some of the same nonsense. And I see Caleb Williams has some great plays and I see him escape from some sacks and I see guys running wide open.

11:30Diante Lee:Uh, and I see their defense get, and I'm, and I'm like, you know what if I were a Bears fan I'm having a great time this year watching this team look first of all I just enjoy the fact that we're just slowly kind of brushing away at those rough edges on shield right it's slowly but surely you know he's leaving some of the more ardent takes and just saying hey man if I'm if you're having a good time I'm having a good time right there with you with Chicago and I will say to that point if I wanted to take the other side of the argument I just made about the Bears missing out I would say a lot of what you're saying, right?

12:02They have a lot of the component pieces that you would like to see offensively. I tweeted it earlier today that they've been one of the better second half offenses in the league, if not the best second half offense in the league, they do a great job of making adjustments. And to your point differential point, I think that if you're a Bears fan, you would say that Lions game in week two has an outsized impact on that, right? Like that game totally got away from them early turnovers, three and outs, bad field position, the whole thing, you end up losing by 31 points. And for the rest of the season, they basically playing in one score games.

12:33Now that probably means you're not as good as your record suggests that you are. And you're, you know, you're definitely kind of taking advantage of that one score game variance. But I think that if you're Chicago, this is a success almost on its own. I don't really care about what seating we're in. If I'm, if I'm a bears fan, right. I'm just glad that the quarterback looks like what he was billed as when he was drafted. And that your head coach in year one looks like the kind of guy that we thought he could be coming into this. Hold on.

12:59Diante Lee:Hold on. That was the case going into this season. Now you're eight and three. If you don't make the playoffs now, talk to a Bears fan in January. They're not feeling good about the future. They have to go three and three down the stretch. They're an 11 win team and they're in the playoffs. I'm with you. I'm with you. And just like I know you from podcasting with you, you know me. I'm always ready to shift the blame to the people who really deserve it in my opinion so Bears fans if you're looking for somebody to be mad at Ryan Poles is your guy if you go 10 and 7 and miss the playoffs you talk to Ryan Poles and say hey man all the time you spent trying to draft guys and develop you know we're trying to get get this program together where you're looking at all these great athletes and basically borrowing from the relative athletic score to kind of shape your big board why aren't there what aren't these defensive players making more of an impact why are we getting guys that are always hurt that's where you should be shifting to blame to.

13:52It should be less about whether or not. I love that. Exactly. You know, I'm always setting that up. It's not about Ben Johnson. It's not about Caleb Williams. The real issue here, if they don't make the playoffs, is Ryan Pulse. That's your agenda if you're a Bears fan.

14:04Diante Lee:You know what? I'm going to say the Bears get in. I'm going to embrace the chaos. I'm going to say all three of those NFC North teams get in. The 49ers don't get in. The Cowboys don't get in. You know what? That's how I feel at this very moment. I'll change my mind next week, but that's why we do so many pods here. All right, let's finish this with the NFC. Cause I was thinking this Deontay for the first time all season, uh, as what I just said probably indicates I am open to the chaos. Okay. So I was trying to come up with the most chaotic scenario in the NFC. You tell me what here seems maybe the least likely or what you can get behind Panthers win the NFC South.

14:43Diante Lee:So we just watched the bucks stink it up Baker Mayfield. We don't know about this injury. It's, I mean, the, the Panthers are right behind them with this Monday night game looming against the 49ers. So Panthers win the NFC South. Bears win the NFC North. We just talked about them. The Cowboys getting in. We talked about that scenario and the Lions and the 49ers not making the playoffs. I mean, the Lions needed a 59 yard field goal to force overtime at home against the Giants today, giving up more than 500 yards to Jameis and Mike Kafka and whoever else was on the field there. So what of that scenario do you feel like, all right, settle down, Sheil, that's not happening.

15:24Diante Lee:What can you get behind? I had to fight every bit of my body to not stop you as soon as you brought up the Panthers. It is very clearly the one that is least likely to happen is Carolina making the playoffs. The ask is just too high. I don't think there's any way in the world they beat either the Rams or the Seahawks, even if, you know, even if the Seahawks don't have anything to play for come week 17, there's just such a delta in between roster talent and the way that these teams have played. And then you're telling me they'd have to beat the 49ers on Monday. We talked about that earlier in the show, and they would have to at worst split the games against the Buccaneers and the Bucs have been hurt.

15:59We will see obviously what the scenario is going to be with Baker Mayfield. They've been dealing with injuries all across this roster all year long. and I know that it will be easy coming off of this Sunday night game where the Bucs just got totally run off the field against the Rams to say hey maybe there is a window open for this team to make the playoffs too many things have to work in Carolina's favor for them to make the postseason there's no way I would pick any other scenario other than Carolina missing the postseason even though to the same point we made with the Bears I think if you're a Panthers fan and maybe a little bit more realistically for them than with the Bears because you know Bears fans can be a little irrational because they've been quarterback thirsty.

16:35They've been head coach thirsty. I think if you're Carolina, the fact that you got through a full season with Bryce Young as a starter, it wasn't a disaster. You guys won some close games. The run game thing has existed from last year to this year, just as stable with different running backs from Chuba Hubbard last year to more Rico Dattel this season. You should feel good if you're a Panthers fan, even if you don't make the playoffs. And I see you shaking your head. Too many moral victories.

16:58Diante Lee:What are we talking about here? We got to fight the irrational behavior. Listen, this is about getting in or not getting in for these fan bases. They're dreaming of just that Saturday afternoon where even if it's only one game, they can say our team made the playoffs. They're not looking at, you know, eight and nine. Let's go celebrate Rico Dattle today in January. Come on. I am trying to free our NFL fans of the shame of the two seven blowout on wild card weekend. you don't have to experience that okay you can be free coming right out of the new year feeling great about everything your team got a winning record might not have made the playoffs but that's where you get tricked yourself you can run all the hypotheticals all year long all offseason long about if we would have made it we would have played X Y or Z team closer that's what I'm really rooting for all of these teams on the fringe yeah we would have beat them that is a fun fan thing we would have beat them if we got in so you can always count on that all right NFC lots to sort out that NFC North is really the one those teams all still playing each other.

18:04Diante Lee:NFC South still needs to get sorted out. Despite what Deontay said, the Bucks are the favorites. Rams look like a pretty good lot. Not a lot, but they are in the driver's seat for the one seed there. All right, let's take a break. We come back. We talk about the AFC. The Ringer NFL show is brought to you by FanDuel. This Thanksgiving, FanDuel is introducing a brand new way to parlay together. It's called Pass the Lay. Here's how it works. Start a group, add your pick, then pass it to your friends so they can add theirs. When everyone's done, you each lock in the parlay with your own funds. On top, everyone gets a 50 % profit boost to use on their build.

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19:27Diante Lee:You know, I just, someone noticed my golf clubs in the garage and said, these are hideous. You need to clean these. So you know what I did? Go on Amazon Prime, find the golf brush, find a little bucket, and now you know what? Gonna be able to clean those bad boys. It just shows up right at my doorstep. Prime's fast shipping is always there for you during the holidays, especially when it's last minute and just can't wait. Need some holiday magic? It's on Prime. Head to amazon.com slash prime to shop now. All right, we're back on the Ringer NFL show. Kind of less to be sorted out in the AFC, I guess you could say here, looking at it.

20:06Diante Lee:So you look at the playoffs right now and it would be the New England Patriots as the one seed. They get a win against the Bengals. The Broncos had a bye. They're the two seed. Colts three, Ravens four, Chargers five, five Jags six bills seven. And then you look at the teams that are out of it right now, but have a chance. You got the Steelers at six and five, the Texans at six and five and the chiefs at six and five. Let's start with that chiefs Colts game. Deontay. You know, I was really trying to think like how differently I feel about these two teams. And I think I do feel differently. Well, I shouldn't say differently about the Colts.

20:41Diante Lee:Cause I've been kind of like everyone pumped the brakes a little bit on the Colts. And I do still think that that AFC South can be had, you know, Jaguars win Texans win in week 12. So there that, that's still up for grabs there. And then that chiefs team, which I've been saying, I still like them. I would still pick them. I mean, there was a time in that game where I just go, this is a lot of Kareem hunt, man, for a team that's trying to, that I'm, that I'm saying can get to the super bowl, you know, all due respect to Kareem up, but in the year 2025, 33 carries for Kareem hunt. I'm a veteran of Andy Reed in some of these big games where it gets a little tight and you get a little uncomfortable.

21:17Diante Lee:You could feel that. I was feeling that in the fourth quarter of this game. And I just had a moment where I'm like, do they have enough good players to actually go on a run both in the regular season and in the playoffs? So they're definitely back in the mix. They wouldn't be in, they got more work to do, but I thought I would feel better about them after them having won this game than I actually do. I'm with you. And I think if we laid out a hypothetical where Patrick Mahomes passes for 350 yards, Jonathan Taylor goes for less than 60 yards rushing, right that you would have 30 first downs exactly you would not point you would not pick out a game flow that lands with an overtime three-point win for kansas city you would think oh wow okay the chiefs are right back to where we thought they'd be maybe steve spagnola caused a bunch of problems for danny jones even if he didn't turn the ball over etc etc right not the way that this game felt at all it did feel like if anything this was a spags win i think if you're giving somebody the game ball you're giving the game ball to see spagnolo for the second half adjustments really taking away the runs between the tackles flummoxing daniel jones and i think putting shane sykin in a lot of uncomfortable positions on third downs where you have to make decisions on how aggressive do we want to be do we want to play for a fourth and short do we want to try to get it all right now and i think that you saw them kind of hung up in between decisions bringing the offense out trying to draw guys off sides instead of just being aggressive and taking those chances so that part was great for Kansas City.

22:42It was hard, though, before those last couple of drives in the fourth quarter in overtime, watching Patrick Mahomes, look at times a bit flummoxed. The way he looked, honestly, the last time he played against... I didn't think he played great. Like, I didn't think Patrick Mahomes played great today. For a 350-yard game, this was not a great Patrick Mahomes game. And like I said, before those fourth quarter drives to tie the game and then the overtime go-ahead drive, it looked like he was really having trouble figuring out where he wanted to go with the football in some key passing situations. And I think that If you're a Kansas City fan, you don't, you should not walk away from this game feeling good about anything other than you get another week where your playoff hopes are alive.

23:17Diante Lee:Yeah. You get the win, but it doesn't feel like you turn the corner. I mean, when they settled for that field goal at the end of regulation, I'm like, this is it. They're like, yeah, this is over. I'm going to have to admit to Deontay that he was right. And I was right. I don't have to do it yet, but yeah, I just don't feel great about him. I mean, I thought Tony Romo was as critical of Mahomes as I've heard a broadcaster be in maybe his career, you know, talking about how he was going through his reads too quickly, wasn't waiting for stuff to get open. He did feel sort of panicked too far, but like Furnette, the pace, it was kind of like, he's like, I'm doing this, you know, like I'm making a play.

23:52Diante Lee:And sometimes it was good. He made some great plays. I'm not saying he played poorly, but there were times in this game where it just felt like, oh man, you know, I'm looking around going, I don't know. Maybe Deontay was right and they don't have it. So they survived. But my point is, I'm not like, Like, oh yeah, and now they're just going to go on a run, which is kind of how I thought I'd be feeling if they won this game. What about the other side of this? You mentioned Spags, I totally agree. But the Colts, you pointed to it. Stiken had some uncertainty. Their last four possessions, I mean, they really needed one drive on their last four possessions to win the game, and they couldn't do it.

24:27Diante Lee:They couldn't cross midfield. Across midfield, four punts, 13 yards, zero first downs for what has statistically been the best offense in the NFL. And now, by the way, you still have to play the Texans twice. You still have to play the Jaguars twice. You don't have a huge lead over those teams. You're 8-3, the Jaguars are 7-4, and the Texans are 6-5. How are you feeling this week, today, if you're a Colts fan? You have to be queasy. You have to be queasy knowing that you've got four divisional games coming up. Not that, and that doesn't mean that what we've seen over their first 11 games means nothing.