NFL Head Coaches Draft! Who Would You Start an Expansion Team With?

24:15So I think there's a chance that this is the beginning of the end for Andy Reid. And I don't mean they're going to go, you know, five and 12 or whatever. It's just like, we're going to every year, we're going to be like, huh, you know, does he still have his fastball? I think there's a chance that he doesn't. But at the same time, at this point in the draft, I was like, if I got an expansion team, like Andy Reid's going to bring me a certain level of competence and credibility where this thing's not going to be a train wreck so I thought this was the spot where I decided to put it I dropped Reid all the way to 10 just because like you said he's clearly a year to year proposition at this point and with Reid it's almost starting to mirror Bill Belichick where I thought Bill Belichick would never get bad as an NFL head coach I thought he wanted to win so badly that he would continue to do whatever it took, even if that included going outside his coaching tree, making himself uncomfortable, changing up the way he drafts.

25:09He never did any of those things. He let himself get stale. And I thought that was very alarming with Andy Reid. How did an offensive patch from Mahomes become unfun to watch? It's really rather astounding. And how was there no fallback plan? They didn't even have a running game. Andy Reid has always had good running games. And then, like you, I was alarmed when the solution and then was to recycle a guy. You know, they kind of chased out of town before in Eric Bien-Ami. And it seems like he's running low on ideas. And yeah, he's getting up in age. And I just don't know. It never seems like it's going to happen that someone's going to fall off an all-time great, but I guess that they do.

25:47And I do have the same worries that you do with Andy Reid while also still having, you know, it's Andy Reid. He can course correct. It was truly basically only one bad year, even though they've been getting less fun to watch. where I wouldn't be shocked if Andy Reid bounces back and wins another Super Bowl this year. But yeah, he's no longer a guy I'm looking to maybe build an entire franchise. I wouldn't be shocked either way if you told me two years from now he retires and these next two years don't go well or if they won a Super Bowl. So there's like a, you know, you have Mahomes still. There's a lot of variance.

26:15I am leaning a little bit more towards he doesn't have his fastball, but I still, you know what? I still had to make him my pick there. All right, Pat, who do you have? Seventh overall pick in our head coach's draft. He was my sixth. He's our seventh. Someone who's never won a playoff game somehow. That would be Kevin O 'Connell. And I'm a little stunned he's never won a playoff game. But I think as we both kind of alluded to, maybe we haven't come out and said it, ideally you begin your franchise with an offensive play caller as your head coach. There are major exceptions that rule. Some of the all-time greats, of course, are exceptions that rule.

26:48But everything's easier when your head coach is calling play as an offense because what always gets poached first, an elite play caller, they can't poach the head coach Kevin O 'Connell whether it's been with retread veterans like unsung day two or three picks he's been the quarterback whisper except of course last year the ultimate disaster year with J.J. McCarthy where they still somehow go 9 and 8 that's what kind of stands out to me about last year. It's one of the craziest stats of the 2025 season. It's like every time I go to the standings page I'm like wait I watched that season. How did they go 9 and 8 last year?

27:23Yeah that is wild. And so Well, basically, you look at the Vikings 2025 and you come to the conclusion, if Carson Wentz could have started four or five more games, the Vikings probably make the playoffs. And that really speaks to how good Kevin O 'Connell has been. And with head coaches, you always have to handle your business on your side of the ball. Kevin O 'Connell does that. Then you have to know who to trust on the other side of the ball. He's found an elite defensive coordinator in Brian Flores. Seems like he has good judgment. Maybe not in the quarterback department, I guess, with J.J.

27:52McCarthy. but the good has so outweighed the bad with Kevin O 'Connell. I think he's one of the league's ultimate offensive play callers, and I would be very comfortable starting an expansion team with Kevin O 'Connell as head coach. I'm with you. I had him number eight, so we're not far off there with where we had him. You mentioned it hasn't won a playoff game in four seasons, did go 13-4 with Kirk Cousins, did go 14-3 with Sam Darnold. I love the Flores point. We forget now. Now we're just like, Flores, amazing defensive coordinator. Anybody could have hired him. He was what the linebackers coach of the Steelers.

28:25Literally any franchise could have hired him as their defensive coordinator. And O 'Connell's the one who did so. So I think he's smart enough to do that. And I'm kind of bullish on them this year. As I was doing this exercise, I'm like, well, to your point with Carson Wentz, I'm like, if he has, you know, if Kyler Murray is like competent, I mean, he's won a lot of games without ideal quarterback situation. So I think O 'Connell is a good one there. All right. Eighth pick here. listen, I guess Pat's an ageist. You know, I like to think that, you know, Americans in their 60s can still, no, okay.

28:58I'm going with another guy in his 60s. Sean Payton, I was like 62 years old. But then I'm like, he just literally engineered what would be like the same thing he would have to do for my expansion team. I mean, the Broncos were irrelevant with a bad quarterback contract on their books. And he turned it around to the point where they won, what was it, 13 games, whatever it was last year, but 18 seasons as a head coach, 11 playoff appearances, won a Superbowl for championship game appearances, 24 and 10 in Bo Nix's first two years here, won a lot with the Saints. So my line for Sean Payton that, you know, if you're a consistent listener of this pod, you've heard me say it a million times.

29:39It's like, he thinks he's God's gift to coaching football, but he is kind of like one of the best coaches. I don't want to say he is God's gift to coaching football, but he's like, He's probably not far off from that where I would just feel very confident that he could get my expansion team going in the right direction. Whereas even if he wants to retire five years from now, we're still in a good spot there. So I've got Peyton next on my list. And the reason I still have faith in Sean Peyton, I had him next on my list too, where he did what Bill Belichick couldn't do and what Andy Reid has struggled to do.

30:12Sean Peyton's one of the greatest play callers in the history of the league. But he sensed that he had become a liability. Who knows if he's going to actually allow Davis Webb to call plays for 17 games. I don't think he's right about that, though. So it is weird to me still, but we'll see. But to me, that was the kind of move a lot of these aging coaches are unwilling to make where he wants to win so badly, he's doing whatever it takes. And that's just something you don't see from a coach in his position very often. So that struck me as very bullish. And then, yeah, he's the first guy to win the AFC West since Patrick Mahomes came the chief starter, other than the Chiefs, I should say.

30:48And it's like no easy feat. Even in a year where Patrick Mahomes gets injured, he's just clearly not resting on his laurels. He still has a burning desire to win. He's willing to do what it takes. And I would be very comfortable with Sean Payton coaching my team, say, the next four to five years. All right, number nine, Pat, who do you got? Along those same lines, it's Jim Harbaugh, where he's won fewer than 11 games one time ever as an NFL head coach. He's won quite literally everywhere he's been. I wrote my article. He won at the University of San Diego. Now he's winning with the NFL team that used to play in San Diego.

31:23And he did the same thing that Sean Payton did. Maybe I shouldn't give these guys too much credit for going outside their coaching tree, but it's just not something you see very often, including from Jim Harbaugh. He got to LA. First thing he does is bring back Greg Roman. Then to his credit, he's admitted that probably wasn't the best choice. He went out and got the best offensive coordinator that was available this offseason and then Mike McDaniel, another guy where, again, sometimes you can take this too far, but he's clearly willing to do what it takes to win. He's one of the great fundamental coaches in the history of football.

31:55Like Jim Harbaugh arrives somewhere, and they immediately become maybe the most fundamentally sound team, whether it's in their conference or in their league in the NFL. And he's always going to have that. He's an odd guy, but he's a great leader in his own way. And yeah, I was just so impressed that he was willing, even at his age, even with his experience, even with his success, he's willing to bring in a guy outside his tree and Mike McDaniel try to put the team over the top. This specific guy, you know, this quirky guy with his personality. Yeah, I agree. That really showed me something because before that, you could argue like, alright, he's just bringing in this guy, you know, great.

32:30He's sticking with Greg Robin to a long type thing. That move this offseason, I thought, definitely showed me something. You mentioned it. Six NFL seasons has never had a losing record. His worst record is 8-8 and he's won 11 plus games every other season. He has the 10th best winning percentage in NFL history, which is like, whoa, I think that might surprise some people. Sneaks up on you. Yes. Yeah. It sneaks up on you. He did it in the college ranks as well. So I had him top 10. And even then I wrote in my notes, I'm like, feel like I have him too low. I had him 10. You certainly could make the case that he should be in the top five there.

33:04So I think Jim Harbaugh is a good one. All right. I'm going to Green Bay with my next pick. Pat, this one, I don't know. You know, I think they're, this guy, it feels like he's become very polarizing over the last year or so. And that's Matt LaFleur of the Green Bay Packers. Seven seasons, winning record in six of them, in the playoffs in six of them, two championship game appearances. The playoffs have been ugly. I will absolutely concede that. He has had moments in the playoffs and that's when everyone's attention's on you. You know, like the, I don't want to say even the casual fan, but a lot of you're watching your own team on a Sunday.

33:37You're watching the other, the primetime games, but once the playoffs come around, everybody is zeroed in on these teams and these coaches and he's three and six in the post season. And there have just been some head scratching moments with him there. So that worries me a little bit, but can he develop a young quarterback? Yes. He's done that with Jordan love the stuff he does when Malik Willis got in the game. I thought that was very impressive. So if you're just talking like quarterback development, adjustment adjusting your scheme to the quarterback's strengths and weaknesses actually able to do that which is maybe one of the most precious skills of a coach in the NFL I feel like he's got that and I really feel like I could fix the other stuff you know like I feel like I would bring him in hey Matt yeah you know you're not going to hire Jonathan again as your defensive coordinator here's a list these guys are going to be much better hey Matt the end game decision stuff yeah here we're going to hire this guy he's going to be in your headset he's going to tell you what to do I feel like if you kind of fix those two things I like almost all the other stuff about Matt LaFleur so I have him here with my next pick I had him at 12 so it's still a level of respect for me but not commiserate with this record I would say and sometimes with LaFleur I think one problem is unlike Kyle Shanahan who's an elite play designer and I would say a pretty good play sequencer LaFleur is an elite play designer I don't know if he's an elite play sequencer where it feels like they leave too many points on the table especially in the second half of games and where it's almost like sometimes a baseball thing I know you're a baseball fan where sometimes you can say like the Milwaukee Brewers they have a great 162 game roster but can this roster really win in a playoff series like where talent really takes over you kind of have to have I hate the cliches like that killer instinct like how can you the past three playoff losses Matt LaFleur has had they've blown second half leads like how can you let that happen over and over and over again in the playoffs.

35:33And I feel like he leaves points on the table. I feel like he doesn't call games to, like the goal is to maximize his points. It's like he's trying to maximize his efficiency, which I guess would normally maximize your points. But I want the play caller to call plays, like the goal is to score 50 points. Obviously, you're not going to ever do that. I feel like he doesn't do that. And yet, the defense always collapses at all the most inopportune times. It's not his side of the ball, but maybe it's his judgment and who to hire. and I feel like, yeah, he's leaving meat on the bone and I agree with you, but a few small tweaks, maybe a Matt LaFleur truly vaults into that top four or five where his winning percentage really says he should be.

36:12But he's got big changes he probably still needs to make. Yeah, his winning percentage is nuts. So when you just go to the pro football reference page, you're like, man, Matt LaFleur, he's really doing good things in Green Bay. Okay, that was our top 10. Pat, now we move on to kind of the next tier here. Who do you have at number 11? Well, I have this guy, a little hard to evaluate right now, Mike Vrabel, because a guy who'd been writing really high, and we don't have to get into the off-the-field stuff, but obviously that does... I bumped him. I'm a little concerned here, Pat. I bumped him down, too.

36:40Okay, you kept him there. It does change things, because what's something you don't want as a leader? It's kind of getting your aura of invincibility pierced, and I would say that's happened with Mike Vrabel, where he always kind of just carried himself, and I think was regarded as a big, tough guy, Kind of like an invincible guy. A guy who is just always tough in all the biggest moments. Like very canny and smart too. Not just a tough guy. He's a rule book maestro. He's the ultimate. He always gets the whole greater than the sum of its parts. I just worry. I don't know if he's like a wounded asset right now.

37:18But he's an ultimate players coach on top of everything I just said too. The players typically love him. if he can rebound from a pretty ugly episode here I think he can still be an elite head coach a guy whose team's always overachieved to the point where what do you have to do to have an ugly loss in the Super Bowl you have to make the Super Bowl the team probably had no business being in the Super Bowl but they got there because of how good of as a coach I still believe in Mike Rabel if he can get past the speed bump this is one where again the projection is different than the resume if you looked at the resume there's no doubt He's been a very good head coach.

37:53He was a very good head coach last year. I'm just, there's so much uncertainty. I'm the owner, Pat. I got to look out for all aspects of the organization. Okay. We got, you know, we got the PR team. We got this. There's a lot. And this cameras are following this guy around and I don't know when it's going to end. It's going to be the ultimate distraction this year. It's the ultimate distraction. I don't know what else is going to come out about it. Like, I don't feel like we have the full story still. So it's not just, you know, and this is all speculative, but it's not just like, oh, I I can't have a head coach who is, you know, disloyal to his family.

38:24We have, you know, you and I have followed the league for a long time where we have looked at NFL head coaches who might be great at their jobs and might not, you know, you probably wouldn't be like, oh, that's who I want my kid to grow up as. I would actually say most, the majority of head coaches we would probably put. You have to usually have a screw or two loose to be an NFL head coach. Yeah, so it's just the spotlight on him now has me very concerned. Like how long is this thing going to actually follow him? And is his value as a head coach, does it significantly outweigh the distraction that it's going to have with him as the head coach?

39:00Obviously there are levels to this. If it was, you know, Sean McVay, I would be pretty inclined to say like, all right, it's worth it. Brable, I think is a good head coach. I don't think he's at that level. It's not like he's giving you a big edge schematically. Like to your point, his whole thing is leadership, CEO type head coach, players coach. We're going to play hard. and he's done a good job with all that stuff. But I had him all the way down to 17 because I'm a little nervous about maybe what the next three to five years could look like for Mike Frible. To your point, you say, how long could this follow him?

39:28It could easily be the rest of his career. It could be. It's almost seemed like he's lost belief in himself. Kind of understandably so. I mean, horrible lapse, ongoing lapse in judgment. Yeah. We'll see. It could be a career that ended sooner than it should have. It could be. It very well could be. All right. When you said Harbaugh before, I wasn't sure which Harbaugh you're going to go with that because I had them right next to each other. You know, they were nine and 10 on my list. I'm going with John Harbaugh here. Now, Jim Harbaugh, by the way, 62 years old, which I'm like, oh, I thought he was younger.

40:01You know, and John Harbaugh is 63, but 18 years. And I know people say, all right, well, they were about to fire him before he got Lamar Jackson, which I understand that. But still, if you look at the whole resume, he did have a career before Lamar Jackson. and it was going in the wrong direction, but they won a Super Bowl before that era. So 18 years, 12 playoff berths, a Super Bowl, four championship game appearances. I really like his ability to identify coaching talent. You've hit on that theme quite a bit here, but Mike McDonald bringing him in to the Ravens, even the Todd Munkin move, like that was kind of an unorthodox move at the time where it was like, this guy's been around for a while.

40:40Is this really the right coach? And they put up unbelievable numbers. the first year there with Todd Munkett. He's been willing to play a different way when they first had Lamar. And it was like, we are going to run the quarterback a lot. And not every day, a lot of teams were doing that in the NFL at that time. Defensively, he's been willing to evolve with different coaches there. So we'll see what this chapter looks like with the Giants. I feel like the Giants media is in love with the guy. But I understand why they're very excited because they haven't had a head coach that has looked this competent in a very long time.

41:13So yeah, I've got him here at 12, I guess overall it is, with my pick. I had him at 11. As you may remember the last time we talked, I dabble a little bit in questioning the start he had gotten off to with the Giants. I thought he was a little too focused on creating Ravens North. And especially with the coaching staff, I thought he was kind of bringing in his buddies. That makes me a little nervous. Yeah, it didn't used to be who he was. And he literally signed the fullback and the punter from the Ravens. I'm like, John, you know, like I know you want to have some familiar faces around, but like one of your things has always been you're the guy comfortable with the new because he's always been on the cutting edge of analytics.

41:52But I think they aced the draft. I really liked the Giants draft. I think he's getting more comfortable there. To your point on Lamar, by the way, but he's about to get fired where he got Lamar. One thing I always respond to that point when people make it, you know how many coaches don't win when they have elite players? Like it's still a skill to have an elite quarterback and win. and not everyone does it. Harbaugh has always done it. And I think, yeah, his draft to the Giants made me more comfortable. I thought, I was worried they were telegraphing they were going to force skill player picks to me, which I thought was kind of like a get-rich-quick scheme for where this roster was.

42:28So I was very impressed. They take the linebacker, they take the guard, and just kind of back to methodical team building, I'm feeling pretty good about John Harbaugh at the Giants right now. I like your coaching staff point, though, Folks, I am nervous that Matt Nagy, Brian Callahan and Roman, I'm kind of like, wait a minute. Again, for what I just said, he's in the past. He's thought outside the box. It doesn't feel like he's doing that here, but let's give him, I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt after 18 years. Now, maybe, you know, six weeks into the season, might I be ripping him?

42:59Yes, it's entirely possible. But for now in the off season, we'll give him the benefit of the doubt. All right, let's take one more break. We'll come back. We'll zoom through some of these. Some things work better together. Like NARS' Soft Matte Complete Concealer and Radiant Creamy Concealer. Soft Matte Complete Concealer erases and blurs imperfections with full coverage. Then, Radiant Creamy Concealer evens and brightens with a luxurious texture and radiant finish. Two concealers, one flawless look. Perfect for a no-foundation base. NARS. Better together. Visit Sephora to shop now. This episode is brought to you by Duluth Trading Company.

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44:13I think we're at the 13th overall pick. Who do you got? Who I had 13, Liam Cohen. And you could argue he should be more in the Ben Johnson tier. He had a very, very similar year to Ben Johnson last year. Actually won more games than Ben Johnson did. I'm just, we have a little bit longer track record to go on to Ben Johnson because we have those Lions years as play caller, which is only a few seasons. We got a good play calling year out of Liam Cohen, of course, in Tampa Bay. just to be a little more comfortable fully believing in Ben Johnson. But Liam Cohen, I mean, passed every test as a first-year head coach for the Jaguars, where it might sound silly to call this a micro goal, but I feel like he aced his micro goal of fixing Trevor Lawrence, at least for a year.

44:55And then the macro goal, of course, always win divisions, make the playoffs, maybe make the Super Bowl. And I don't think anyone was expecting that in year one. So he achieved the first objective, have to get the quarterback's career back on track. and then I think to everyone's surprise greatly overachieved they win 13 games he kind of emerges as a leader too similar to Ben Johnson in that regard where kind of like a hard-o in public and like creating like an us against the world type atmosphere for the Jaguars or him against Trevor Lawrence was a fun early you know he's just yelling he's just like yelling at him like in between plays he's yelling at him so yes that edge I don't think we were you know at least I wasn't that familiar with it and so yeah just another guy where you view all elite play callers kind of as analytics guys.

45:41No, he's also a tough guy. And off to a great start, I would not be surprised if Liam Cohen quickly ascends this list. I had him 13th on my board as well. Listen, his last two stops, he's gotten the most out of Baker Mayfield. We can't forget that, that Baker has had some ups and downs. That was his best year with Liam Cohen. And then he gets the most out of Trevor Lawrence here. So again, that seems like it could be a special skill there for Liam Cohen. I do think he's got some volatility to him, you know, just some of the episodes. Oh, yeah. Maybe a little Sirianni to him, who we haven't talked about yet.

46:14Yeah, which we'll, let's see. Where are we going to get to him? But yeah, the thing with Salah, the stuff with Lawrence, but maybe that is just an edge. It just made me a little bit nervous and it's only been one year. I kind of want to see it a little bit longer, but you're right. There's a chance if we did this next year, he would be way higher. So I had him at 13. Guy at 11, this is going to be my next pick here. D 'Amico Ryans is next on my list here. Pat, three seasons, made the playoffs every year with the Texans, has won a playoff game every year, but lost every year is kind of the same.

46:46They make the playoffs, they win the wildcard round and they lose in the divisional round. Now, it's either that he hasn't been able to figure out the OC hire or it's that CJ Stroud is just not going to be the guy we thought he was going to be after his rookie year. And I don't know which one of those it is. We'll see what it looks like this year. But D 'Amico Ryans is going to give you a high-level defense that can compete against the best quarterbacks and the best offenses in the NFL. It is kind of that Mike McDonald mold that we talked about very early in this episode. We've seen that consistently with D 'Amico Ryans in the playoffs against good quarterbacks.

47:22They seem to always give those guys a hard time. So I thought D 'Amico Ryans is giving me a good floor. if we can figure out the quarterback OC situation, we actually have a chance to compete for Super Bowls with him as my head coach. He was my next guy too. Extremely high floor. It's just what's the ceiling? He's kind of like a mirror image to Kevin O 'Connell where he's the defensive version of Kevin O 'Connell. Unlike Kevin O 'Connell, he hasn't found the right lieutenant yet on the other side of the ball. And maybe there is no right lieutenant with CJ Stroud. Maybe he's just too volatile and the project's going to fail so they get another quarterback, but that he's got to figure out his stuff on offense because he's got to figure it out on the leadership front and he's got to figure it out on the defensive coordinating front.

48:05All right, 15th overall pick. Pat, who is the last guy? I guess we got two more here in the top half. Who else is in the top half of the NFL coaching ranks for our expansion team? Shane Steichen, where I feel like I'm kind of going out on a limb. That's who I have, 14th on my big board. All right, make the case for Shane Steichen. I feel like I can never decide, like, are we giving him too much credit for just keeping a dysfunctional franchise on the tracks? Or does he deserve blame for just staying mired at 500? I really think it's the former. This is such a tough situation. And then you have the change in ownership.

48:45But to be at 500 after, what, three or four years? I forget if it's three or four. with that level of dysfunction and this poor of quarterback play, I just think clearly he's a good leader. He's keeping the locker room reasonably together where the team's never falling apart. And to be at 500 where they're just not getting anything from the quarterback position is so impressive. It just seems like it's streaming out where if they can get anything at quarterback, the Colts, they found their guy and are finally going to be back on the right track. But there's so many variables to play with Shane Steich and he's difficult to rank, kind of no matter what the parameters are of your head coaching exercise.

49:21The record's not good. 25 and 26, no playoffs, eight and nine wins every single year. Yet I'm with you. He got the most out of Daniel Jones for whatever, eight to 10 weeks last year. Before that, he got the most out of Jalen Hurts when he was his OC. And I don't look at these Colts teams, I'm with you and think like, oh my gosh, they're underperforming their talent. I'm kind of like, oh my, last year, I'm just like, how is this happening? What is happening here? Yeah, with Daniel Jones. And so I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. If he, if they have a down year here and he's fired and I'm another team, he's absolutely on my list of guys.

49:54I would say, let's bring him in. We can give him better infrastructure here and really give him a chance to succeed. Cause I do like the things he does offensively. So I think that's a good pick there. All right. The 16th overall pick Pat, I think it's time Nick Sirianni, which Eagles fans are going to be mad at me about, you know, Half of them might be mad at me because you have him way too low. How can you have these other schmohawks above him? Give me a break. Look at his resume. And half of them are going to go, how can you have him that high? He stinks. Okay, he doesn't have to do anything there.

50:25But the resume is kind of laughable, you know, that when you go to the pro football reference page and it's five seasons, five playoff berths, two Super Bowl appearances, one championship, a winning record all five seasons, the fifth best winning percentage in NFL history. Wow. And yet, I don't have any regrets about having him at 15. When I look at it, what's he bringing to the table schematically? Very little. They're scrambling to find a new OC every single year. I don't believe that he puts the coaching staff together. It's not like he went out and recruited Vic Fangio, who has been a big reason for the team's success.

51:05That is done for him. His game management is okay, but I don't think it's anything that gives them like a huge edge in terms of culture. They're trading their best wide receiver. And he also didn't seem to see eye to eye with the legendary offensive line coach who left the team in the offseason. So I look at all those things and I'm just trying to be honest. I'm legitimately trying to be an owner and say, if I had my choice of any of these guys, would I choose him above these other guys? And I don't actually think I would. What do you think? No, he's just a classic. What does he do? and there's only one way we're going to find out and that's when he inevitably gets fired because I think even Howie Roseman has kind of bought into perception or I always make the comparison the Eagles are so much more like a baseball organization than a football organization where they're an outlier in the NFL where the single most important person in the franchise is the GM is usually the coach or the quarterback of course the Eagles are the rare team where it's unquestionably the GM at least we think it is Howie Roseman really benefits from this perception because if something goes wrong, then it's like, well, it's clearly to Sirianni.

52:10You know, it's not the roster. And I just feel like we're not going to get an answer on Sirianni until he's gone. And then maybe like, oh, wow. Or maybe it's like a Mike Tomlin thing. Like, we had no idea what Nick Sirianni was doing to keep this locker room together to prevent it from getting even worse. You know, and I agree with you. He's got the kind of stuff where it's either intangible or it's just not visible to the public because he's not calling plays. Like, what is he really doing? When you watch the Eagles games, what does he do? He's yelling at the crowd right now. I can see that. I'm not really sure what else I can see that he's doing.

52:42And we're not going to find out, I feel like, until he's gone. And that might not be fair, but that is life in the NFL. That's it. Listen, you can't really make the argument that another coach would have done better with the Eagles over the last five years because they won a Super Bowl and have been to two, and they've been in the playoffs every year. But again, at the same time, like you said, we won't know until he's with a different GM, a different, you know, he has to assemble the coaching staff. He has to find his own defensive coordinator. What does it look like? And I'm not confident he would have the same type of success at all with those other things.

53:14So that's why I've got him down here with the 16th pick. All right, 17, Pat, who do you got? Kevin Stefanski. Some people could say he could be way higher. Wow, I have him way lower. Okay, so you're buying the Stefanski PR. Give me the sell here. I was hoping I was going to be low on him, to be honest. because he gets so much credit as a QB whisperer. Is he actually a QB whisperer? Because Baker Mayfield had success without him. Joe Flacco had success without him. To me, I always view it as like he didn't solve QB in Cleveland. And maybe he didn't deserve the blame for the Deshaun Watson fiasco.

53:50But one way I look at that is he didn't have a forceful enough personality to convince ownership, to convince the front office not to do it. And I don't know that he felt strongly that they shouldn't do it. Yes, I agree. And if he's really so good, why does he keep stripping himself of play calling duties? But then, all those negative things aside, he did do things in Cleveland that quite literally had not been done since they were reincarnated as a franchise. They had never won 11 games. He did it twice. It's always so hard to know with these guys who are graded on a curve, what was luck, or what was sheer force of skill in an impossible situation.

54:28I am open to the possibility that I had begun to underrate just how difficult it is to do what he did in Cleveland. So I think he was a worthy second chance guy. Like, let's see what he can do in a slightly more competent organization. Because, you know, the Falcons are kind of dysfunctional themselves. But I had begun to sour on him, but I'm trying to maintain an open mind. Like, listen, you go do that in Cleveland. You know, basically, he did that in Cleveland. I'm interested to see how he does with a second chance. I thought he might have been the hardest guy on this list to rank, honestly.

54:58Because I'm with you. I'm like, I kind of like him. I kind of feel like his second act is going to be better than his first act. But one playoff win in six seasons, again, it was, you know, we always have to say it was Cleveland. He gives up on Baker Mayfield. They chased Deshaun Watson. I think he wanted Watson. I think everyone's going to try to separate themselves from that decision. But I think he thought Watson was, you know, off field stuff aside, Watson had been a excellent quarterback to that point in the NFL. He was a superstar. He clearly thought he was upgrading at quarterback and then he gets the worst version of Deshaun Watson there.

55:32The offense, the last two years has been 32nd in DVOA back-to-back seasons. I know the quarterback situation's bad, but can you get me to like 27th if you're a great, you know, offensive coach? He couldn't do that. So I think he has a chance, but I do think his reputation probably outpaces his actual accomplishments at this point in his career. So let's see what it looks like for Stefanski. I had him outside my top 20 just when I was looking at kind of ranking these guys on my board. All right, 18th overall pick. Our first guy who is a first-time head coach. So I'm going out on a limb here. I think Jesse Minter is going to be pretty good.

56:11Let's see if this looks stupid a year from now, three years from now, five years from now. It could. We've never seen him be a head coach in the NFL. I like that he worked his way up. He goes Indiana State, Georgia State, then he's a defensive assistant. It's not like he was just somebody's. No, he was somebody's son because his dad was an assistant coach for those Chip Kelly teams. So it goes, of course. But listen, that's how the NFL works. Whatever. However, you know, he's worked with both the Harbaugh's who we've already had on this list who have very different personality, different way of doing things.

56:39But I think that's a pretty good coaching tree. And he was very good with his job with the Chargers the last two years. So I think Minter has a chance to be very good. And I'm going to go out on a limb and take him over some of these other guys who already have resumes. I had him quote only 20th, but I had him in the same range and just very bullish on him too. Like the other brothers Harbaugh disciple, if you want to call him that, he's just been like Mike McDonald. He's just been lights out everywhere he's gone. And I know he's young, but he's been a quick riser for reasons because everywhere he's gone, he's had success.

57:10And he's really well positioned to hit the ground running with the talent base they have with the Ravens. And to me, he's the archetype of what you look for in a first-time head coach. I know he's not an offensive play caller, but you know he's handling his side of the ball. He seems to have some of that innovative energy we've talked about with the Chargers defense, really, really good the past two years. and he just seems like kind of the right guy at the right time for the Baltimore Ravens. I love the Jesse Minter hire. I think he could be skyrocketing up this list if we did it again next year.

57:39All right, number 19. Who do you got, Pat? Kellen Moore and he was one of last years. Oh, we disagree on this one too. I have him. I have him in my bottom five here, Pat. Make the sell on Kellen Moore. I could see why you'd have him in your bottom five because I don't know if he's a one-trick pony. His thing is, let's play fast on offense. Is that his one trick? I don't know. but he was one of last year's biggest overachievers. He has kind of quietly had success everywhere he's gone, maybe with the exception of the Cowboys. Maybe they should have been better near the end, but who knows what's real there with the meddling you get from the ownership and the front office.

58:16And that's just what I want to know about Kellen Moore because he's being great on our curve because they had truly non-existent expectations for the Saints last year, and he did clear them. Does he have a second act? Because now there are expectations. Okay, yeah, you're doing your play fast thing. Are you going to be able to adjust when the league adjusts? But he did much better than I was expecting as a first-time head coach for the Saints. And he's another guy where I'm open to seeing what the second act is for Kellen Moore. I'm open to it. Now we're at the area of the list where these guys, a lot of them don't have lengthy resumes.

58:47So you're kind of just, again, it's just projecting. Who do I kind of like here? I feel like everywhere he's been, there are two sides. You actually don't know whether he did a good job or not. Like the Cowboys, it's like, did he do a good job? They kind of let him go. The Chargers is like, did he do a good job? Everybody kind of got fired after that. The Eagles, it's like, did he do a good job? They won the Super Bowl, but everyone hated the offense for like 15 weeks. I know, I know. It's complicated. He is the did he do a good job coach. He has that title and we still don't know. I'm with you.

59:13Maybe he will be good. They were 6-11 last year, but you're right. The vibes now are better with the Saints than I thought they were going to be. Maybe they got something in Tyler Shuck. Maybe he can develop him and let's see. I just didn't feel as confident with him over some of these other guys. But I like the swing there, but we are on opposite sides of maybe the belief in Kellen Moore here going forward. I took another coach who, listen, the resume is not great, but I went with Dave Canales. It's sort of my version of Kellen Moore, probably, Pat, where I'm like, all right, it kind of hasn't happened for him yet, but I feel like there are little morsels that there's something there.

59:51They made the playoffs last year. I know it was the NFC South. I get it. he's 13 and 21 in two years. I feel like that roster has just been like, we look at the depth chart these last two years and you're just like, how is anyone winning any games with this depth chart? So it feels like he can do some things offensively. I don't know how much he's limited by, you know, some of Bryce Young's shortcomings. He seems like a reasonable guy. I just wrote, I want to see more. I think he has a chance. It's not the strongest endorsement, but that's kind of where we are on this list. That's the only place you can be with him, but I'm in the same spot as you where I feel like it's notable that the bottom hasn't fallen out with the Carolina Panthers.

1:00:30Like you said, the talent just hasn't been there. And I know they made the playoffs with a losing record. The defense did get a lot better last year. We have seen incremental improvement from Bryce Young. It's possible it's a hopeless situation because Dave Tepper seems to be one of the more meddlesome owners in like all of North American sports. But I don't want to sound like I'm damning with faint praise, but I think it is noteworthy that he's had any success whatsoever. with Dave Canales. And I'm interested to see, like, you know, he can maybe continue to gain cachet with ownership. And like, guys, just trust me.

1:01:02Let me do this my way. We're going to have success. And he's a guy, maybe the right track doesn't even exist in Carolina, but I think he's maybe found it. And I am very fascinated to see where Dave Canales' career goes from here. All right. Who do you got? Who's next? What are we on? 22, I want to say? Thereabouts. I should have Clint Kubiak probably ahead of Kellen Moore. Or 21. Sorry. Go ahead. Is that who you have? Oh, yeah. Clint Kubiak, who's never coached a game. You know, Clint Kubiak, you don't really have to wonder how he got a head coaching job. His last name helps. But like nepotism.

1:01:34Listen, if we threw out the Nepo baby, this would have been a 25-minute podcast. That's true. We mention them. I like mentioning them. You like mentioning them. But what are we going to do? We don't make the hires around the NFL. We do not. And nepotism in the NFL, it gets you in the door. Success is usually required to sustain it. Maybe not in Brian Schott and I'm in this case. I don't know. But the best system in the NFL, what is it? It's the Mike Shanahan system. There's so many different variations of it at this point. There's the Kyle Shanahan variations. There's the Gary Kubiak variations.

1:02:04He's the latest, greatest version of this offense. He has all the best offensive mentors. He clearly knows how to put it into practice if he's winning a Super Bowl with Sam Darnold. And again, like I said, in a league where the cycles, I feel like have been condensed from five to 10 years to two to three years. he's running maybe the best version of the best offense in the league right now and maybe that will go awry as a head coach maybe it'll go awry for this this tortured franchise in the Raiders I thought he was a by the book hire by the Raiders though and I am very fascinated to see where Clint Kubiak goes in Vegas I had him a few spots lower but again we're at the point where we're going off just I'm not sure let's see what this guy has so I'm not saying he's gonna stink you know like he did a great job last year with the Seahawks, with Darnold, and maybe it'll work with the Raiders.

1:02:51Maybe, you know, does he have kind of that, you know, second pitch, that third pitch? I think those are some of the things we have to see with Mendoza. Can he develop a rookie quarterback? Can he be successful in that culture and environment, which is going to be very different than Seattle? Maybe. I'm with you. I thought it was a good hire. I would be excited if I was a Raiders fan. I just had him a few spots slower because with the 22nd overall pick, I had the guy you just took a shot at, Pat. I'm going to make the case that Brian Schottenheimer did a good job last year. He might actually be a decent, I'm not going to say great, we're at this point in the draft, but might actually be a decent head coach specifically in the environment that he's in.

1:03:31So he goes 7-9-1 last year. Now, the offense was very good last year. He brought in the Clayton Adams from the Cardinals and Schottenheimers designing the offense. I like that offense. I thought that offense worked well. George Pickens. If you told me George Pickens was going to go from Mike Tomlin to Brian Schottenheimer and have a career year, I would have been like, give me a break. I don't think that that's going to happen. That is what happened last year with George Pickens. He screwed up the defensive coordinator hire with Matt Eberflus. However, to the point you've made with some other coaches recently, they made a change.

1:04:07They're not sticking with it another year just to keep his buddy around. They hired Christian Parker from the Eagles, which I thought was an inspired hire. The guy who's worked with Vic Fangio at various stops. So I like what they did, a defensive coordinator. It's not his, it's not Brian Schottenheimer's fault. They traded Micah Parsons before the season. Like if they just didn't make that Micah Parsons trade last year, they might have been a playoff team last year. Like that's a big thing to have happen right before the season starts. Oh, by the way, one of the five best non-quarterbacks in the NFL is not going to be on our team this year.

1:04:37Have fun with it. So I feel like he's got a little bit of the old school approach of his dad mixed with some of the Pete Carroll energy from Seattle. Like it kind of seems like the players genuinely do like him. And he's not just kind of this, you know, hardheaded like his dad, like he has that part of him. But he's also got this other part of him. I'm kind of bullish on again in this situation in Dallas, which is very unique. You've got Jerry Jones. You've got a lot of loud voices, a lot of attention. In that situation, I'm changing my tune from a year ago when I thought it was a terrible hire.

1:05:14I actually think he might be okay and a decent head coach in that environment. Am I crazy? That's just the only thing with Schottenheimer is I feel like very clearly he's being graded on a curve because I think all of us expected him to probably be the worst coach in the NFL. And he very clearly was not even close to the worst coach in the NFL last year. I just couldn't decide when I was doing my rankings, is that the only reason? And, you know, I'm feeling good about him because, like, he cleared the lowest possible bar. He's someone where I really need to see him do it again. But he's also someone that proved the value of experience.

1:05:46He had, I think, 25 years as an NFL assistant. You could tell that last year where he was kind of emptying his book of tricks. Now, did he do it all in year one? Like, is he, will there be a second act? I'm using that phrase again, but can there be a second act with Brian Schottenheimer? Because kind of like Kellen Moore, the expectations, I guess the expectations are always kind of high in Dallas. But, you know, amongst people like us who fancy ourselves like complex NFL thinkers, I had very low expectations for Brian Schottenheimer. He blew by those. He's kind of the ultimate. All right, let's see you do that again.

1:06:16And like what has now become one of the hardest places to coach the Dallas Cowboys because you're just an extension of the owner. It's a good point. And it's actually a reminder to me that this is an expansion team. So I'm not, it's not Jerry. It's not. But still, I don't know. I feel like there's a profile there that maybe could work. Maybe I'll look very stupid at the end of next season. All right, 23. We're at the bottom 10 here. Pat, let's see. Who do you got? Who's the 23rd overall pick? Who do I have next here? I think it was Dan Quinn, which... No, no, no. I was looking at my real rankings.

1:06:46Sorry, not Dan Quinn. My next guy that I had not ranked was Robert Sala, actually. I'm wishing I had ranked ahead of Kevin Stefanski now. Stefanski is the first one where I regretted it off the bat. I'm like, why did I have Stefanski there? Sala was a retread who didn't get nearly as much attention as John Harbaugh and Kevin Stefanski. And I think maybe he deserved it. He's not the first guy to get broken by the New York Jets. He absolutely will not be the last. Adam Gase literally just got back into coaching after getting fired by the Jets. That's how long it took him to process what happened with the Jets.

1:07:24This is the second time Adam Gase has come up in a podcast I've done this week, Pat, because someone said Carl Anthony Towns took smelling salts, you know, before the Knicks Sixers game yesterday. You can see where this is going. And anytime I hear that, I'm thinking of the Adam Gase script. What an upset. Adam Gase just getting a lot of pub on the Ringer Podcast Network here, but sorry, go ahead. Adam Gase, he'll be a legend forever for a variety of different reasons. But Salah, he gets fired by the Jets. He goes back to the 49ers, immediately kind of puts his coaching career back together, duct taped and glued together a defense that was ravaged by injury.

1:07:59I think no one really questions his leadership ability. I think he's a really great defensive coordinator. He made the right offensive coordinator hire in Brian D 'Abel, at least for short-term purposes. Maybe. I'm not on board with that. It could be a short-term solution. But Salah was a guy I thought deserved better in New York. You don't ever get better, though, when you're the head coach of the Jets. I'm very interested to see Robert Salah take two in Tennessee. I was thinking the best version of Salah would be like a poor man's version of D 'Amico Ryan's, I think. Yeah, that's not bad. he's not that level of defensive coach.

1:08:32I don't think he's nearly as good as D 'Amico Ryan's, but he has been a good, very good defensive coach, even with the Jets, like you mentioned, with the Jets, with the Niners. He's done it at multiple stops there. So I think that there's a chance that this works. I mean, it all depends on whether they develop Cam Ward. If he's really good, then again, now that Texans comparison might be apt if they can build up that defense. And now you have a young quarterback who's pretty good. So I had him a little bit lower, but not that much. I'm not that bullish on Sala, but I see a scenario where it potentially could work out.

1:09:06Maybe the poor man's Dan Campbell. Maybe let's aim for that with Robert Sala. I know his defensive mind, Campbell's offensive. Some similar qualities I feel like for Dan Campbell. I'm going to go with another bald defensive coach, which you had, I think, in your article you said, but you bumped him. I'm going to go with Dan Quinn. It doesn't feel great. I'm not going to tell you it feels great. You feel like you're limited with the ceiling with Dan Quinn, but eight seasons, six in Atlanta, two in Washington, three playoff berths. Has been to the championship game twice in eight seasons. That's pretty good.

1:09:39Has been in the Super Bowl. Once, I just see a solid, competent coach. I wrote down, Pat, the modern-day version of Ron Rivera. That's kind of how I feel. He is very similar to Ron Rivera. Everybody likes, people like him. They're kind of like, oh, this guy's such a nice guy. He's such a great guy. But you're like, okay, but is he actually a good coach? I'm not sure he really gives you a big edge anywhere, but I think he'll set a certain floor. And I do think this is an interesting season for him. They change both their coordinators. They're going in kind of drastically different directions. Do these moves pay off or is he out of a job next season?

1:10:15I think that's the question with Dan Quinn. It is kind of the opposite though of like, you know, Kyle Shanahan. We're like, hey, DQ, you want to go play a round of golf? Yeah, he's like, cool, man. I'm in. Hey, you want to go get a beer, DQ? Yeah, he's probably a great hang. And so maybe if you're at this point in the draft and you're an owner, you're like, I might as well get someone who I like hanging out with. To your point, he's universally loved. He got an A plus, I believe, in the NFLPA survey. He's a genuine players coach. I copied something I had from my article, though. I feel like last year with Dan Quinn, it was just a reminder of kind of the limits of personality-based coaching in a league where it comes down to personality.

1:10:52of course, but it also really comes down to play calling. But to your point, he doesn't give you an edge in those departments. But there is something to be said for being a coach that players actually want to play for. And even as the Cowboys defensive coordinator, where he maybe overachieved, players love playing for him. So yeah, if you've got the 25th pick, you can maybe do worse than Dan Quinn. All right. Who do you got, Pat? Who is next on your list? We're down to the final eight here. No one's going to be happy with it, but Mike McCarthy. and you're starting an expansion team. Maybe you're not really thinking that long-term.

1:11:26You're just thinking someone make us respectable. That's what Mike McCart, he won 61.8 % of his games in Green Bay. He won nearly 60 % of his games in Dallas. He won 13 games back in 2007. He's won 12 games at least three times this decade. Clearly he can coach. Clearly it burns out quickly where he's kind of like, he's almost like an English soccer style coach where you're not bringing him in there for 10 to 12 years at this point. You're bringing him in for like a three to four year job. Hopefully you can make a Super Bowl in that time period. Like he's not very inspiring. He'll wear out his welcome, but he should be an NFL head coach.

1:12:02He's down this low because yeah, he's not really a long-term solution. Unbelievable description. I feel like Pat, there's a case, and I agree with pretty much everything you said there. I do feel like there's a case where if a member of the McCarthy family is listening to this, they're like, screw you guys. Like there is a case that he belongs significantly higher, much higher over some of these other guys. You made the point 18 seasons in the NFL. He's made the playoffs 12 times. He's got a Superbowl win. He's been in the championship game four times in his career. There is a case. I don't want to make it.

1:12:39I'm not going to make it because I don't believe it. You don't want to make it. You don't believe it. There is a case that Mike McCarthy is actually underrated. Now, I don't know if you saw when John Harbaugh got hired, there was kind of a graphic going around that like, is there really a difference between John Harbaugh and Mike McCarthy? Look at these resumes. I would argue that Mike McCarthy has been blessed with great quarterback play throughout the entirety of his career. Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, and Dak Prescott. And that now he is not going to have that luxury with the Pittsburgh Steelers.

1:13:13And to his credit, he won a lot of regular season games with those guys. To your point, it didn't always last a long time, but he won a lot of regular season games, winning percentage over 600 for his career. I don't think it's going to go well here in his next tenure. And so if I'm an expansion team, or if you're the Pittsburgh Steelers, and you have an uncertain quarterback situation, 62 year old Mike McCarthy who I don't think is going to be an innovator or have a lot of new ideas that's not the guy I want so I did have him actually next on my big board so I would have taken him where you took him there because I think the resume is strong enough but I don't think either of us would be that excited about it so no he's a resume based art throw maybe actually is good you know I've never maybe I should consider the possibility Mike McCarthy's a great head coach let's see if he doesn't if he does it in Pittsburgh with that quarterback situation, I'm willing to change my tune if we do this exercise again.

1:14:07We'd have to maybe be talking in the Hall of Fame for Mike McCarthy. Oh my gosh, settle down. If he goes like 11 and 6 this year. All right, settle down. I know it's late into the podcast. I know we've been talking for a while, but settle down over there. Thank you. I've got... This next guy is also kind of polarizing. Zach Taylor of the Bengals. He was my next too. He was? Okay, all right. So this is my next pick. And again, if you're a member of the Taylor family and you're listening to this, Fisher, like, come on, he's done a lot more than some of those other guys. Seven seasons. Now, he's only been in the playoffs twice, but he's been to the championship game both those years and to the Super Bowl once.

1:14:43So he's five and two in the playoffs. Zach Taylor, which is that a Joe Burrow stat? Is that a Zach Taylor stat? Is that a Jamar Chase stat? Is that a Lou Anarumo stat? You know, we can certainly have that conversation, which I think is the reason why we have him at this spot. They've now gone three straight seasons without making the playoffs. Now, the case for Zach Taylor would be the offense is pretty much good whenever Joe Burrow is healthy. I know some people are like, I don't like the scheme. They just let Joe Burrow sit and shotgun and take shots on the outside. It's like that's actually worked very well for them.

1:15:16That hasn't been the problem. The problem has been that their defense has stunk and that Joe Burrow hasn't been healthy. So the case against Taylor would be he's getting carried just by the talent of Joe Burrow, Jamar Chase, and T. Higgins. And he doesn't really give them an edge anywhere. So I wouldn't be in a hurry to hire him. I don't think he like stinks. I just think he's kind of clumped in with a lot of these middle tier coaches that we've talked about here. But you hit the most important point with Zach Taylor, where I think we would know like if a second gear was coming, like he's never going to be a special head coach, but you just don't take it for granted that you will have success, even with elite players.

1:15:53And when those guys are healthy, he knows to basically just get out of the way and let them score a million points. And anytime Joe Burrow and Jamar Chase are healthy, they score a million points. So he's not holding back the offense. And maybe he's not propping up anything else, but maybe that's not his fault. It's a dysfunctional front office and ownership group. Zach Taylor, I think, is certifiably not a special coach. But certifiably, they score a million points when they're healthy. And some people, you cannot take that for granted. That doesn't just happen. And he does deserve at least some credit for the offense stays on time when it's healthy.

1:16:28Think about this. if he had Howie Roseman as his GM and the organization got him Vic Fangio as his defensive coordinator, I mean, we might be talking about his pro football reference page. Like they might have a couple Super Bowls already. So again, the infrastructure, what each coach is being asked to do, where he's given help, where he's not given help matters a lot in this exercise. All right, we're down to the final six. The audience wondering who's going to be last in this draft? Is it going to be my coach? No, I think it should be my coach. All right, Pat, who do you have here next? Next, I have Todd Bowles.

1:17:03And I make a comparison for Todd Bowles that a lot of times people make to quarterbacks where he's not going to be the reason you ever win a Super Bowl. But I think I've seen enough that with a talented enough roster, you could win a Super Bowl with Todd Bowles. And I think he's kind of allowed himself to evolve on offense. I know he's a defensive-minded head coach, but he had a reputation as the most stodgy, conservative guy you could ever have. And when he had Tom Brady, I think maybe it opened his eyes to the way modern offensive football needs to be played, where he's a pretty solid defensive coordinator.

1:17:37Despite people's belief, he never held the offense back. Is he a special head coach? Doesn't really seem like it, but in the right situation, I think you could win a Superbowl with Todd Bowles. Maybe that's damning with faint praise, but a solid coach, never going to be anyone's first choice. But yeah, if you're down to like your, say your 25th choice, he might be pretty happy with Todd Bowles as your head coach. Yeah, I couldn't decide. I'm like, do I have him too low? He's a hard one to rank always. I'm not sure that the guys we've picked over him are definitely better choice. Yeah, this is just, a lot of these guys are clumped together.

1:18:12He's got a 452 winning percentage for his career, but to your point, four of those seasons with the New York Jets where literally nobody has won. So I can't count that really against him. He's had three playoff appearances in four seasons with the Tampa Bay Bucs. Now, only one playoff win, Pat, in eight seasons as a head coach. So that's not great. I do feel like he can fluster a certain level of quarterback and offensive coordinator. Like we've seen that in Philadelphia when the Eagles playing them. However, I don't know that I trust him against the, it's kind of the opposite that we mentioned with McVay, where I'm like, McVay, I think him against Fangio, him against Mike McDonald, he's going to have something for him.

1:18:54It's going to be a fair fight. I feel like Bowles gets exposed a little bit when he goes up against that level of offense sometimes, whether it's in the playoffs or the regular season. Now, there's a case that he's got kind of a good eye for offensive coordinator talent when you look at Dave Canales and then Liam Cohen. But is that true or not? Because they had Josh Broussard last year. They let him go. And now they're bringing in Zach Robinson, who I don't know about you. I didn't watch that Falcons offense last year. Everyone's like, oh, who's scheming this bad boy up? Go get me that guy. So I'm a little concerned.

1:19:27I don't think the arrow's pointing up for Todd Bowles. He's 62 years old. I would take him as my defensive coordinator if that's kind of what happens with him after he's done in Tampa. But I would kind of shoot higher if I were an expansion team looking for a head coach. But that's the point of the draft that we're in here. All right, my next one. A first-time head coach. Todd Monk in here. Pat, 11 years as an NFL assistant 7 as an OC I was thinking about what how does this work for Todd Munkin we're like oh good hire Cleveland, is there a Bruce Arians case for Todd Munkin, Pat? is that how you wrote down?

1:20:06I wrote down Bruce Arians for Todd Munkin this could be the great outcome here is that you get a lifetime of experience coming together for a first time head coach in their 60s and a guy who's always been pretty successful in whatever his role was. Even as like the Southern Mississippi head coach. And it will a lifetime of experience come together. He's been winning the offseason. I really liked his quotes. You know, like he seems like he's ready to lead. We know he can call an offense. We know there's a reason he was available. It's like no one else was really beaten down the door to hire this guy.

1:20:40So it's a long shot bet by the Browns. But in terms of long shot bets is maybe one worth taking. Where interesting resume has had recent success calling plays. And yeah, I actually liked the Todd Munkin hire despite it being kind of strange on its face. Yeah. He's been good at the job. Like you said, he's been good at the jobs he's been asked to do. He just hasn't been asked to do this job. Bruce Arians was 61 when he got his first head coaching job and he ended up having a 624 winning percentage with two different franchises and won a Superbowl. So at least Munkin brings something to the table.

1:21:13You feel like there, you know, whatever juice there is to be squeezed with the offensive talent, with the Cleveland Browns, you feel like he will be able to get that out of him. I'm not like bullish that he's going to be Bruce Arians, but that would be the case where this works out. All right, we're down to the final four here. And I will tell you that the guys we have left here, we're on the same page because the guys we have left on my personal big board, they rank 28, 30, 31, and 32. So the only guy that's been picked so far, I had Kellen Moore in my bottom four, but I didn't feel that strongly about it.

1:21:51But we have a very similar, it feels like, bottom four on our big boards. Who do you have next here, Pat? By the way, I had Shottie 32, just because I was like... Oh, how dare you? Unbelievable. Yeah, who's going to do this? Who would do this other than the Dallas Cowboys? But as we discussed, he's... She would. It's true, it's true. He's not the worst coach in the NFL. I believe in you. We have established that. The beginning of my bottom four was Joe Brady. where he's a Kingsbarian hire to me where I know he was Josh Allen's offensive coordinator. I kind of just feel like this is happening still because of what he did in college.

1:22:25Like, remember what he did with Joe Burrow and LSU. And just kind of this never-ending belief that this guy oversaw an historic offense, so there's got to be something there, right? And I'm not saying there's nothing there, but who saw Joe Brady's work as an NFL assistant and thought, this guy's got to be a head coach? and maybe it'll be like Zach Taylor. A good outcome for him probably would be Zach Taylor 2.0. The offense scores a million points. Hopefully someone else takes care of the defense. Maybe they get to a Super Bowl. He just didn't strike me as someone, especially in like a win or else situation that the Buffalo Bills are in, the kind of hire he wanted to be making.

1:23:02But it seems like he's been coasting on his reputation for a long time. Maybe he can have some success with it, but I kind of think that's the situation with Joe Brady. it's like if your claim to fame is that the offenses were good when you had two of the best five quarterbacks walking the planet I kind of need to see more you know all right yes Joe Burrow in college with a loaded LSU team you did a great job all right yeah Josh Allen literally every offensive coordinator that has coached Josh Allen has produced a top five offense with the Bills Ken Dorsey got fired but he did Brian Daval left to be a head coach and didn't look like he was up to the challenge with the Giants as an offensive coach.

1:23:43But you know what? He looked great with Josh Allen. So just why would it be any different with Joe Brady? Now, having said that, Joe Brady and the Bills could win the Super Bowl this year. Like that, you know, they're on probably anyone's list of like five to eight teams that could actually win the Super Bowl. So I'm not telling you he's going to be a train wreck and drag them down. It's kind of like, where is he going to give them an edge? You know, because I know the offense is going to be good. It's got Josh Allen. It's the same scheme. It's got a good offensive line. and the weapons are better than they were last year.

1:24:11I know the offense is probably going to be top five. And if your offense is top five, you're probably going to win 11 plus games, which is what happens when Josh Allen's your quarterback. And maybe I will give him this. The hipsters love Jim Leonard, Pat, as the defensive coordinator. I don't know if you've been listening to him or if you have a view on Jim Leonard, but at least it's like, all right, this seems like it could stink. I don't know, but it seems like there's at least some optimism by the hipsters that this guy's going to be a difference-making defensive coordinator. If that's the case, and maybe Joe Brady's pretty good at the game management or whatever, then I could be like, all right, there was more to you, Joe Brady, than I gave you credit for.

1:24:49As someone who used to be hipster adjacent, I like to hear that the hipsters are approving of the Jim Leonard hire. And I think Joe Brady, to put a fine point on it, it could work. I feel like the Bills should have aimed higher and could have aimed much higher and come away with a more impressive Why aren't the Bills, why isn't Jesse Minter the head coach of the Buffalo Bills right now? But it's not, it wasn't so bad of a move that we could sit here today and say this has no chance of working. It should be, we should have something better to say about who's coaching the Buffalo Bills. And I feel like that's what there is to say about Joe Brady.

1:25:23There are some amazing quotes that like the team social media accounts would not put out, but I personally am appreciating them, you know, from you, Pat, as we get to this point in the draft. All right, we're down to three. We got Aaron Glenn, Mike LaFleur, and Jeff Halfley. We have the same guy. I have Jeff Halfley here with the 30th overall pick. 22 and 26 at BC. Two years as the Packers defensive coordinator. One was good. One was mediocre. Hired Bobby Slowick as his OC. Yeah, I'm just kind of like, maybe it'll work out, but I'm not convinced it's going to work out for Jeff Halfley. His signature achievement as a head coach, I say this as a laugh line, He won the 2023 Wasabi Bowl at Fenway Park.

1:26:12And I don't really get the thought. He was fine as the Packers defense coordinator, but he was just fine. He's clearly someone where this is like a league circle's reputation kind of higher, where there's a reason he was bandied about as a head coaching candidate. He's impressing the right people. Maybe he has intangible qualities that are hard for me as an outside observer to pick up. here sitting in my computer where it could be in 10 years from now like wow yeah the league insiders were really right about Jeff Halfley but I just don't see what the league insiders. It could be that Stephen Ross just read one NFL.com article about the best candidates in the head coaching candidates and went with him.

1:26:52Alright here we go. Big decision. It's up to Pat. We are down to 31 and 32. We have Aaron Glenn and we have Mike LaFleur. It's Pat's pick. Whoever he doesn't pick I get with the 30-second overall pick. Who is, here, do it this way. Who is the least attractive? Sorry, this feels mean. But we got to do it this way. Who is the least appealing head coaching candidate for an expansion team right now, Pat? This would be the 30-second pick. Who would you have? My line on Aaron Glenn is this, where you could very easily say, what was he supposed to do with that team last year? And my only answer would be, not that.

1:27:34just anything other than that like I know it's the New York Jets I know this roster was talent and Marin I know they traded away their two defensive players what was he supposed to do he wasn't supposed to do that he wasn't supposed to be a defensive minded head coach where the defense collapses and he wasn't supposed to create a viral stat where the first defense not to intercept the pass since the 1930s since Franklin Roosevelt was president and it was a hopeless situation where he did not rise above his hopeless circumstances. And he's kind of failed every test. You know, like, didn't seem to be the world's best leader.

1:28:12Definitely failed schematically. Seemed to have no savvy with the media, which you might say, why does that matter? But it definitely does matter because perception very quickly becomes reality. The media is not going to play nice with him. You know, they're basically frothing at the mouth for him to fail in the Jets' media. and maybe he learned a lot. Talk about a trial by fire. I saw nothing in Aaron Glenn's 2025, though, that suggests he'll be a head coach this time next year, and I would not be starting my expansion team with him. So you're going Mike LaFleur over Aaron Glenn. That's right.

1:28:46All right. His official pick there. I actually had him reversed. So there you go, Jets fans. You know, puff your chest out a little bit. Not everyone had him 32nd. I had him 31st there. Aaron Glenn you laid it out well and not only how that season went Pat but this offseason with like alright are we firing our OC yes wait do we have a plan for replacing him yes it's Frank Reich who we kind of thought his days of coaching in the NFL were going to be over okay well what are you doing a defensive coordinator alright Wink Martindale we're going to go you know he plays the kind of defense I want to play and Wink Martindale's like wait I thought I was going to call the plays and Aaron Glenn's like nope that's my superpower I'm going to call the plays So that ended up being a mess.

1:29:29The game management. I mean, I have the vivid memory. And I can't remember anything that happened last year. But Garrett Wilson yelling at him during that London game that I was for some reason watching live here on a Sunday morning. And Kurt Warner's like, what are they doing with this clock? Game management at the end of the half. So special teams was very good, Pat. So if you're feathering this calf, special teams was excellent last year. I will say the defense that he left in Detroit was good when he left them I'm not saying it was great the whole time but he was doing a good job at the end there he did rank very highly in that NFLPA survey when he was a coordinator that players really liked him I think that's why you saw him as a candidate and you're like maybe this could work out for him it would be a great story if he rebounded and it was like it was a terrible first season maybe it was a little Dan Campbell arc I don't know I feel like we felt better about Dan Campbell after year one but maybe not He didn't have a great first year in Detroit.

1:30:25Maybe he'll learn a little bit on the fly. They'll be a little frisky here. But if I were a betting man, I would say by the time we're sitting down for Thanksgiving, I don't know that he's going to be the New York Jets head coach. So I had him 31, 32. Listen, maybe Michael Floor is going to be a good offensive coach. He's a complete unknown. But when you're hiring Nathaniel Hackett to be your OC, I'm putting you 32 on my list. I think if he hired anyone else, that would have been enough for him to be, to jump Aaron Glenn for me. But when he hired Nathaniel Hackett, I'm like, all right, I don't think this is going to end well.

1:30:59So I have LeFleur 32. You had Glenn 32, I guess in our official draft, it ends up being Aaron Glenn with the 32nd pick. All right, Pat, that was amazing. We got through that. Yeah, I thought it was going to go much longer. I felt like we hit a good pace. We hit a good groove. We were on the same page with a lot of the guys, but not all the guys. I have a lot of stock now invested in Brian Schottenheimer. You now have a lot of stock invested in Kellen Moore. Maybe we do a little, some type of friendly wager, see how those teams perform compared to expectations next season, but good exercise to get ready for the 2026 season, Pat.

1:31:37Well, it was truly exhilarating. Like that flew by and yeah, I mean, I probably could have gone three hours if he had wanted to. And so we'll have to do this again. We'll have to make this an annual thing. Not to invite myself back on your show. No, I love it. Listen, your column is an annual column that I read every single year. So why not make this, you know, kind of do a little jumping off point, a little synergy between NBC Sports and The Ringer. So check out all of Pat Daugherty's work at NBC Sports. Love talking, not just coaching. One day I'll have him on to talk about something other than coaching, but I love talking coaching with him.

1:32:12So that's what we did today. Check out all of his work. Thank you to Christopher Sutton for producing Stefano Sanchez on video and additional production supervision by Conor Nevins and Arjuna Ramgopal. I'm Shio Kapadia. We will talk to you next time on The Ringer NFL Show.

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